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Effects of Global Warming

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					Effects of Global Warming
Mr.Pravin V. Wamane Department of Environmental Science University of Pune

“At one time they said climate change is a myth – today there is another myth at work – the governments of the world are doing something worthwhile to fight climate change – this is the inconvenient truth” Al Gore

GLOBAL WARMING is the increase of the Earth’s average surface temperature due to a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

CLIMATE CHANGE is a broader term that refers to long-term changes in climate, including average temperature and precipitation.

59. Garhwal Himalayas, India -Glacial retreat at record pace.
The Dokriani Barnak Glacier retreated 66 ft (20.1 m) in 1998 despite a severe winter. The Gangorti Glacier is retreating 98 ft (30 m) per year. At this rate scientists predict the loss of all central and eastern Himalayan glaciers by 2035.

90. Southern India - Heat wave, May 2002.
In the state of Andhra Pradesh temperatures rose to 120?F, resulting in the highest one-week death toll on record. This heat wave came in the context of a long-term warming trend in Asia in general. India, including southern India, has experienced a warming trend at a rate of 1?F (0.6?C) per century.

127. India - Himalayan glaciers retreating.
Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at an average rate of 50 feet (15 m) per year, consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the Baspa glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter.

51. Indian Ocean
Coral reef bleaching (inclues Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia).

KEY FINDINGS
 Possible temperature rise by the end of the century ranges between 1.1 oC and 6.4 oC.

 Sea Levels are likely to rise in second half of century.  It is very likely to increase intensity of tropical storms.  It is very likely that parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heat waves.
 Crop yields could increase by 20 % in East and Southeast Asia, but decrease by up to 30 % in Central and South Asia.

 Agriculture fed by rainfall could drop by 50 % in some African countries by 2020.
 20-30 % of all plant and animal species at increased risk of extinction if temperature rise between 1.5 – 2.5 oC

 Glaciers and snow covers expected to decline, reducing water availability in countries supplied by melt water.

How much will temperature rise ?  If nothing is done to reduce emissions, current climate models predict a global temperature increase of 1.1 to 6.4 oC by 2100.

 Even if we cut greenhouse gas emissions dramatically now, scientists say the effects would continue because parts of the climate system, particularly large bodies of water and ice can take hundreds of years to respond to changes in temperature.

How will the weather change ?
 Globally, we can expect more extreme weather events, with heat waves becoming hotter and more frequent.

 Scientist predict more rainfall overall, but say the risk of drought in inland areas during hot summers will increase.  More flooding is expected from storms and rising sea levels.  There are, however, likely to be very strong regional variations in these patterns and these are difficult to predict.

What will the Effects be?
 The potential impact is huge, with predicted freshwater shortages, sweeping changes in food production conditions and increase in death from floods, storms, heat waves and droughts.

 Poorer countries, which are least equipped to deal with rapid change, will suffer most.  Plant and animal extinctions are predicted as habitats change faster than species can adapt.  The World Health Organization has warned that the health of millions could be threatened by increases in malaria, water borne diseases and malnutrition.

What will the Effects be?
 It is possible that plants may take more CO2 from the atmosphere as their growth speeds up in warmer conditions, thought this remains in doubt.  Scientists are not sure how the complex balance between these positive and negative feedback effects will play out.

Sea level rise
 Rises in sea levels are going to be one of the most devastating consequences of global warming threatening low-lying areas of land around the world.

 As the oceans warm, their waters expand, while rising temperatures also increase the melting of the ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica  In 2001, the IPCC predicted that the sea levels would rise by between 9 and 88 centimetre by 2100, relative to 1990 levels. The new report says rises could range from 18 cm to 59 cm.

Precipitation
 An increase in global temperature can cause changes in the amount of precipitation.

 Overall land precipitation has increased by 2 % since 1900, however, precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century

Portage Glacier

Alaska

1914

2004

Colorado River
Arizona

June 2002

Dec 2003

This stick insect imagines it will live forever. We are no different.

How is Wildlife Affected by Global Warming?
 The key impact of global warming on wildlife is habitat displacement, whereby ecosystems that animals have spent millions of years adapting to shift quickly. Ice giving way to water in polar bear habitat is just one example of this.  Warmer spring temperatures could dry up critical breeding habitat for waterfowl in the prairie pothole region, (an area of the northern Great Plains and midgrass and tallgrass prairies that contains thousands of shallow wetlands known as potholes).  Affected wildlife populations can sometimes move into new spaces and continue to thrive.  Global warming is causing a shift in the timing of various natural cyclical events in the lives of animals. Many birds have altered the timing of longheld migratory and reproductive routines to better sync up with a warming climate.

How is Wildlife Affected by Global Warming?

 By mid century up to a third of land plants and animal species may be pushed close to extinction.

 The study, "Extinction risk from climate change," measured the responses to current change and habitat limits of 1103 species in many habitats, and found that climate change is "...likely to be the greatest threat in many if not most regions."

Changes in Migration Routes and Barriers to Migration

 Changes in the length, timing and location of migration routes are being documented.

 In extreme cases, species have abandoned migration altogether. In other cases, species now migrate to areas where they have not been recorded other than as occasional vagrants.

SPECIES AFFECTED
The polar bear was officially listed as threatened under the U.S. endangered species act (ESA) on May 14, 2008.
This the first creature brought under the act's protection for habitat loss that is linked to global warming. The official reason given was loss of Arctic sea ice and predictions that the ice will continue to decrease.

Although global warming has been identified by most atmospheric and polar scientists as the main reason for Arctic warming and melting of sea ice, the U.S. Interior Department did not use man-made global warming as a reason and clearly signalled it would not apply the law to greenhouse

The snow leopard’s fate is sealed as climate change destroys its frozen abode.

Caribou (reindeer)
It is an Arctic and Subarctic dwelling deer, widespread and numerous across the northern Holarctic.

Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus)
also known as the White Fox or Snow Fox It is a small fox native to cold Arctic regions of the Northern Hemisphere and is common in throughout
the Arctic tundra biome.

Penguin (Pygoscelis papua) group of aquatic, flightless birds living almost exclusively in the Southern Hemisphere. Highly adapted for life in the water.

Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor)

It is a migratory passerine bird that breeds in North America and winters in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. It is a very rare vagrant to western Europe.

Sea Turtle
global warming is linked to higher rates of cancer in sea turtles

Impact on India
For India, the reality lies in some stark occurrences like disappearances of two islands in the Sunderbans due to rising water displacing 6000 people

In the event of one meter sealevel rise, 5764 km2 of land in coastal areas of India is projected to lose, displacing approximately 7.1 million people along with 4200 km of roads by the end of 21st century.

Red areas indicate the shoreline and areas likely to be inundated as a result of sea level rise

Himalayan Glaciers- Melting fast  The rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers will first increase the volume of water in rivers, causing widespread flooding.  But in a few decades this situation will change and the water level in rivers will decline, meaning massive eco and environmental problems for people in western China, Nepal and Northern India.

Farmers suicide - is the changing climate responsible ?  A world bank study has claimed that climate change and farmer suicides in India are correlated.  The report says that poor farmers were unable to adapt to changing climates, which forced them fall into debts.  Richer farmers were not affected because they had the resources to shift to other crops that suit the changed climate pattern.  According to the study, in Pennar basin of Andhra Pradesh, decrease in yield is directly related to increase in temperature.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
 The world mostly agrees that something needs to be done about global warming and climate change.  In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meterological Organization (WMO) to assess the scientific knowledge on global warming.

 The IPCC concluded in 1990 that there was broad international consensus that climate change was human-induced.
 With hundreds of scientists and specialists working on the project, the panel has built a massive database and so far issued four reports. The fourth report was issued in February 2007.

Rajendra Kumar Pachauri (born August 20, 1940, Nainital, India) An economist who has served as the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 2002. Pachauri is also the director general of The Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, an institution devoted to researching and promoting sustainable development and the chancellor of TERI University.

Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. (born March 31, 1948) An American environmental activist, author, businessperson, former politician, Nobel laureate, and former journalist. He was the forty-fifth Vice President of the United States from 1993 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton.
Gore also starred in the 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth, which won an Academy Award in 2007.

He is currently the founder and chair of Alliance for Climate Protection.

The Kyoto Protocol
 The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005.
 So far 183 countries have ratified its Protocol to date  The main target is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions an average of 5 per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.

 The GHG gases are: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20)

Thank You…


				
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