Organized by Ivan Tong Marketing Management & Policy
Ch7 Measuring Market Opportunities: Forecasting and Marketing
Research
Information**
Q1. Of the two main approaches for sales forecasting – top-down and
bottom-up – which is better?
Demand
Time Horizon
Geographic region
Product
Two approaches for sales forecasting
Top-down
Bottom-up
Bottom-up is better, because it can predict the demand correct
We will do both, because it can compare two approaches
Let’s consider the six evidence-based forecasting methods. What are
their advantages and limitations?
Statistical methods
Quantitative
Time series Forecasting
Associative Forecasting
Observation
To look for the observation of customers
Surveys
Ask customers the intention to buy
Not truly show customers’ intention
Ask not only one question
Discount the result demand
Analogy
Similar events
Judgment
Market tests
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Organized by Ivan Tong Marketing Management & Policy
Method to Math
Chain ratio method (P.160)
Brand or category indices (P.161)
Ratio provided by profession company / government statistic
Cautions and Caveats in Forecasting
Key to Good Forecasting
Assumptions
Multiple methods
Contingency plans
Biases in Forecasting
Historical figures
Capacity constraints
Incentive plans
Implicit assumptions
Market Knowledge Systems
Internal Records Systems
Marketing Databases
The Costs vs The Benefits
The Ability
The Advances of Technology
Competitive Intelligence Systems
Client Contact and Sales Force Automation Systems
Point-at-sales systems
Data Information Knowledge
Q2. What about marketing research?
Exactly what does this term mean?
The design, collection, analysis, and reporting of research intended to
gather data pertinent to a particular marketing challenge or situation
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Organized by Ivan Tong Marketing Management & Policy
What are the steps involved in conducting marketing research?
Identify the managerial problem and define research objectives
Exploratory
Descriptive
Target customers’ profile
Causal
To find a Conceptual Framework
Variables
Determine data sources
Design research
Collect data
Analyze data
Report results to the decision maker
Determine Data Sources: Two Key Questions
Q1: Primary or secondary data. Which is better?
Q2: Is qualitative or quantitative data needed, or both?
Design Primary Research: Three Key Decisions
D1: Determine data collection method and prepare the research
instrument
D2: Determine how to contact subjects
D3: Design sampling plan
Collecting, Analyzing, and Reporting the Data: Some Advice
Beware of collector bias
Know that response rates will be considerably less than 100%
Plan your analysis before you collect the data!
Plan how you’ll summarize and report the results before you collect the
data!
What questions should informed users of marketing research ask, before
approving a study?
What are the research objectives? Will the proposed study meet them?
Are the data sources appropriate? Secondary or primary? Qualitative or
quantitative?
Is the research itself well designed?
Are the planned analyses appropriate?
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