Slide 1 - Greenpeace UK

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					PEOPLE CLIMATE
   ENERGY
   Ron Oxburgh
                                           CO2 concentration and Global
                                                  Temperature
                                    0.6                                                            400
                                    0.5
Difference (deg.C) from 1961-1990




                                                                                                   350
                                    0.4




                                                                                                         Atmospheric CO2, ppm
                                    0.3                                                            300
                                    0.2
                                                                                                   250
                                    0.1
                                    0.0                                                            200
                                    -0.1
                                                                                                   150
                                    -0.2
                                    -0.3                                                     100
                                                                       Temperature Variation
                                    -0.4                               (w.r.t. 1961-90)      50
                                    -0.5                               Atmospheric CO2
                                                                       Concentration
                                    -0.6                               Smoothed Variation    0
                                           1861


                                                  1881


                                                         1901


                                                                1921


                                                                       1941


                                                                              1961


                                                                                     1981


                                                                                            2001
FRANZ JOSEF
GLACIER
SOUTH ISLAND
NEW ZEALAND




                       1880




               TODAY
            The planet
► The  ‘success’ of human beings
► Explosive growth in numbers
► Extinction of many other species
► Driven by need for
     Food
     Water
     Energy
     Waste disposal
       The Challenge
► Prosperity  of Western World based
  on fossil fuels
► We have to do something
► BUT it must be:
  Technically practicable
  Politically practicable
  Soon enough
Why are we hooked on fossil fuels?


    Fossil Fuels offer:
        ►Convenient energy storage
             - energy on demand
        ►High energy density
         Energy Density

energy equal – volume different



              =



   10 litre
                   60 -120 litre
             Strategy
•Economise
•Minimise
burning fossil
fuels
•And minimise
CO2 release to
the atmosphere
Is a totally renewables-based energy
strategy possible?

Maybe, but not yet.
Why not? Renewables can
be:
  •Low energy density
  •Location specific
  •Intermittent
  •Require high degree of
     optimisation
  •‘Expensive’
  •Have an environmental
Energy not easy
    to store
  At present few
storage
   choices:

   ►Water
   ►Batteries
   ►Hydrogen
   ►Compressed    air etc.

   None is generally
   convenient or efficient
Intermittent Renewables
            ►      Wind
            ►      Wave
            ►      Tide
            ►      Sun

                Value would be
                enormously increased
                if economic energy
                storage technology
                were developed
Continuous Renewables
           ► Hydro-power
           ► Geothermal*
           ► Landfill   methane*

           ► Direct-burn  biomass &
             urban waste
           ► Bio-liquid fuels
                  Bio-fuels
► Essentialfor sustainable road transport
► Technology is in its infancy
► Currently bio-fuels very expensive
► Less energy/litre than fossil fuel liquids
   Ethanol
   Bio-diesel
► How  much can we afford?
► Integrated production of fuel and food?
           Future Biomass Flows
                                         Urban waste
Agriculture & Forestry      Waste Wood
                           paper etc.



                         Bio-fuels                      Other
                                                       Re-cycling
 Food
                   Local Power Generation

       Bio-mass      CHP
    returned to Land
Carbon Capture & Storage
Sequestration : essential transitional
  technology but with a cash & energy cost
► Trap   CO2 at source
   Retrofit expensive (+50%?)
   New-fit (+25%?)
► Transport - pipelines
► Storage – a very familiar gas
   New solids – building materials
   Depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs
   Saline aquifers
What are the obstacles to progress?
  •Our systems

  •Slow replacement of infra-structure
            - Cars 10 -15 years
            - Aircraft 20 -30 years
            - Wind turbines 25 years
            - Power plants 40+years
            - Trains 30+ years
            - Electricity distribution
                   networks 40+ years
            - Houses 70+ years
                        How might it happen?
                   Bio-fuels
Cost




                           Clean
             Fired         gas,
             Biomass,      coal,
             Wind          nuclear




       Present          Time         2030
                                          GDP & Energy use
                                       – various countries 2001
                            400

                            350                                          Canada           USA
Energy Use, GJ per capita




                            300

                            250

                            200
                                       Russia                       UK
                            150

                            100

                             50

                              0
                                  $0     $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
                                                     GDP per capita, US$ 1995 ppp
  Increase in Energy Use vs GDP
1971-2001, Malaysia, China, Korea
                            180
Primary energy Per Capita




                            160
                            140
                            120
                            100
                            80
                            60
                            40
                            20
                             0
                                  $0   $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,00 $12,00 $14,00 $16,00
                                                                     0      0      0      0
                                                       GDP per Capita
Populations, GDP & energy
                             250
Per cap. primary energy GJ




                             200
                                        >$ 12,000


                             150


                             100
                                                    12,000




                             50                                                  < $1,500
                                                    $5 –




                                                                 $1.5 – 5,000
                              0
                                  0.0                   2000.0         4000.0         6000.0
                                                    World Population, millions
           A view from Brazil


“We are not prepared to discuss reductions in
 emissions”

               Everton Viera Vargas, (Leader
 of the Brazilian delegation to Buenas Aires)
 12/04
Kyoto
             Kyoto message

“Energy is essential for our development and
  we cannot afford to pay world prices for oil
  and gas.
Our possibilities are clear – coal and nuclear.
  We can develop them with or without help
  from the West.
With help, coal will be cleaner and nuclear will
  be safer, but develop them we will”
            Conclusions
► Less expensive to respond to climate
  change than to ignore it
► Infrastructure changes slowly – start now
► Determined government action essential
  within and between countries
► A way must be found of supporting clean
  energy development in emerging
  countries
…recommends
•Implementing in 2010 a mandatory
economy-wide tradable-permits system
designed to curb further growth in the
nation’s emissions of greenhouse
gases….
•Increased funding for renewable
technology research..
•Tax credit for all non-carbon energy
sources…
•Establishing a $1.5 billion fund over ten
years to increase domestic production
of advanced non-petroleum
transportation fuels from biomass,
including waste
  mTonnes pa CO2 to atmosphere
30000

25000

                                               India
20000
                                               China
                                               Mexico
15000
                                               Russia
10000                                          Brazil
                                               Developed Countries
 5000

    0
        2000   2050 Pop. Effect   2050 Pop.+
                     only           Develt.
                The World's Main Coal Reserves

          300

          250
          200
mTonnes




          150
          100

          50
           0
                   USA   Russia   China   India   Australia
                                     Per cap. Energy & GDP
                                     by IEA Grouping, 2001

                    250.00                                           Dd

                    200.00
                                                                EU
primary energy GJ




                    150.00                                      15

                    100.00                  E

                     50.00
                                     Developing
                      0.00
                                 P
                             0       5000       10000   15000    20000    25000   30000
                                                 per cap. GDP $US

				
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