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Development Of Cogeneration Installed Capacity

VIEWS: 7 PAGES: 53

									 Turkey’ Position in UNFCCC,
First National Communication
           and CCS

          Dr.Günay Apak
           Bahar Ubay


 Symposium on CO2 Capture and
  Storage(CCS) in Underground
      Geological Formations

     Ankara - December 4-5, 2006
Turkey and Climate Change
         Effects
Temperature Changes
 decreasing   trends Black Sea
  region and
 widespread decreasing tendency
  in the central Anatolian region

Rising sea-level
 increased flooding, and
 sedimentation across the delta
 plain, interrupting agricultural
 activity
 (particularly on the Kizilirmak,
 Yesilirmak, Gediz, Seyhan and
 Ceyhan plains)
Gediz River and
Büyük Menderes Basins
                                     BUYUK MENDERES
               GEDIZ BASIN                BASIN




  AEGE
  AN
  SEA



                             Streamgaging St.



                             Meteorological St.


                             River
Gediz River Basin
-   second largest in the Aegean
-   total drainage area of about 18,000 km2
-   water scarcity due to water competition
    among various uses(agriculture,textile,
    industry) and water allocation problems
-   mainly irrigation with a total command area
    of 110,000 ha versus the domestic and fast
    growing industrial demand in the coastal
    zone
-   environmental pollution in addition to the
    fact that the basin experiences droughtness
Gediz River and Büyük Menderes Basins
         business as usual scenario

- ~20% of surface water will be gone by 2030
- 35% and >50% respectively by 2050, 2100




                          crop water demand
      -potentialcrop
                            %11, %19, %48
    -evapotranspiration
                          in 2030,2050,2100
World CO2 Emission Status and
Turkey’s Situation
 Parameters           Turkey   EU-15   OECD    World
 (2003)
 C02 Emissions        0,231    3,447   12,780 24,983
 without LUCF (Tg)
 CO2 /Per capita       3.3      9.0     11.1    4.0
 without LUCF (ton)
 Total GHG            0,325    4,18     NA      NA
 Emissions without
 LUCF CO2 eq (Tg)
  GHG /capita   CO2    4.6     10.9     NA      NA
 eq (ton)
World CO2 ton/ capita-year
                          GHG Emissions of Turkey
             400

             350

             300
C0 2 eq Tg




             250

             200

             150

             100

              50

               0
                   1990

                           1991

                                  1992

                                         1993

                                                1994

                                                       1995

                                                              1996

                                                                     1997

                                                                            1998

                                                                                   1999

                                                                                          2000

                                                                                                 2001

                                                                                                        2002

                                                                                                               2003

                                                                                                                      2004
                      CO2                       CH4                         N2O                         F Gases

                          1990-2004: 170.2 Tg to 357.4 Tg CO2 eq
             Sectoral GHG Emissions of Turkey
             400

             350

             300

             250
C0 2 eq Tg




             200

             150

             100

              50

               0

              -50

             -100
                    1990

                            1991

                                   1992

                                          1993

                                                 1994

                                                        1995

                                                               1996

                                                                      1997

                                                                             1998

                                                                                    1999

                                                                                           2000

                                                                                                  2001

                                                                                                         2002

                                                                                                                2003

                                                                                                                       2004
                           Energy         Industrial Processes                Agriculture            Waste             LUCF
        GHG Emissions and Sinks in 2004 (CO2 eq)

100
           Waste         7.7%              17.8
                                 F gases   F Gases
          Agricult ure
                         4.3%
 80                               N2O      1.5%
          Industry       24.4%
                                 CH4       13%

 60


                                                                79.3%
                                           67.7%
 40
                                 CO2
           Energy        63.6%


 20




  0
                                                     -20.7%
       gross emissions by gross emissions by          sinks   net emissions
-2 0
             sector               gas


-4 0
Total Primary Energy Supply -Turkey
                          Oil

                 Natural Gas

                   Hard Coal

                      Lignite

                    Biomass

                       Hydro

            Geothermal Heat

                        Solar

                   Asphaltite

Geothermal & Wind Electricity

                                0          5          10   15   20   25   30   35 mtoe

                                    1990       2004
 The Distribution of Final Energy
 Consumption by Fuels in 1990 and 2004
 Source: MENR, 2006




 1990
                                                                 2004


                                         11%
                    9%                                                        15%
                                                         12%            15%
18%                                                                                 5%
                                                               13%



  2%
                                                               13%
                                                                              39%
                                   48%
        Hard Coal        Lignite          Oil Products

        Natural Gas      Renewables       Electricity
The Distribution of Final Energy Consumption
by Sectors in 1990 and 2004
Source: MENR, 2006


1990                                               2004



            5%                                            5%   3%
                  2%
                                           37%                       30%
21%
                                                    20%




                            35%
                                                               42%

  Residential    Industry         Transportation
  Agriculture    Non-Energy
                      WOM (Reference) Scenario Final Energy
                      Consumption by Fuel.
                     200,000

                                                       TOTAL FINAL CONSUMPTION
                                Historical
                                             Hard Coal       Lignite+Asphaltite   Coke+Pcoke
                     160,000
                                             Natural Gas     Oil Products         Solar+Geothermal
                                             Wood+Waste      Non-Energy           Electricity
TFC by Fuel (ktoe)




                     120,000




                      80,000




                      40,000




                          0
                               2000             2005                 2010                       2015   2020
                         WOM (Reference) Scenario Final Energy
                         Consumption Shares by Fuel.
                         1.00

                                                   TOTAL FINAL CONSUMPTION


                         0.75
TFC by Fuel (Fraction)




                                       Hard Coal         Lignite+Asphaltite   Coke+Pcoke
                                       Natural Gas       Oil Products         Solar+Geothermal
                         0.50          Wood+Waste        Non-Energy           Electricity




                         0.25




                         0.00
                                2000        2005                  2010                      2015   2020
CO2 Emision By Sector
                                      1,000
                                                                           CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR
                                               Historical
CO2 Emissions [million metric tons]




                                       800




                                       600




                                       400




                                       200




                                         0
                                              2000                 2005                   2010                      2015           2020

                                                            Electric   Industry+Own Use   Transport   Residential    Agriculture
  CO2 Emision By Sector

                           1.0


                                               CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR
                           0.8
CO2 Emissions [fraction]




                           0.6




                           0.4




                           0.2                      Agriculture
                                                    Residential
                                                    Transport
                                                    Industry+Own Use
                                                    Electric

                           0.0
                                 2000   2005              2010         2015   2020
Forecast GHG Emissions 2005-2020, WOM
(Reference) and WM (DSM)
                   WOM (REFERENCE) SCENARIO                      WM (DSM) SCENARIO
                                           Million Metric Ton

CO2 EMISSIONS

Emission
Source           2005     2010     2015        2020      2005       2010     2015     2020

Electric         81,79   116,53    151,8      221,96     81,79     109,84   140,19   184,75

Industry         75,29   115,46   146,53      196,41     75,29     107,32   128,16   167,72

Transport        43,19    60,12    80,03      102,44     43,19      60,12    80,03   102,44

Residential      30,92    45,71    57,64       65,21     30,92      42,91    51,56    55,82

Agriculture       9,53    11,99    14,97       18,61      9,53      11,99    14,97    18,61

TOTAL           240,73   349,81   450,98    604,63     240,73     332,18    414,92   529,33

CH4 EMISSIONS

Emission
Source           2005     2010     2015        2020      2005       2010     2015     2020

Electric          1,32     1,65     2,08        2,89      1,32       1,56     1,96     2,51

Industry          6,48    10,26    13,25       18,17      6,48        9,5     11,5     15,4

Transport         5,09     7,34     9,97       12,86      5,09       7,34     9,97    12,86

Residential     113,36   133,59    140,3      150,47    113,36     128,25   129,75   134,19

Agriculture       1,31     1,65     2,06        2,56      1,31       1,65     2,06     2,56

Supply           80,34   184,81    210,7      234,41     80,34     177,94   193,73   204,04

TOTAL            207,9    339,3   378,36    421,37      207,9     326,24    348,97   371,57
Projection of the number of vehicles
up to 2010
                       6000000

                                    y = -7678,4x 2 + 3E+07x - 3E+10
                       5000000
  Number of Vehicles




                       4000000                                                   Total Passenger Cars


                                                                                 Total Light and Heavy Duty
                                                                                 Vehicles
                       3000000
                                                                                 Linear (Total Light and Heavy
                                                                                 Duty Vehicles)
                                              y = 93506x - 2E+08                 Poly. (Total Passenger Cars)
                       2000000



                       1000000


                             0
                             1990       1995         2000          2005   2010

                                                   Years
Motor Vehicle Fleet Projections

                      50,000,000


                      45,000,000


                      40,000,000


                      35,000,000
                                                                                Total
                                                                                Automobile
 NUmber of Vehicles




                      30,000,000
                                                                                Minibus
                                                                                Bus
                      25,000,000                                                LDV
                                                                                Truck
                                                                                Motorcycle
                      20,000,000
                                                                                Other
                                                                                Farm Truck
                      15,000,000


                      10,000,000


                       5,000,000


                              0
                               1990   1995   2000   2005   2010   2015   2020
                                                    Year
CO2 Emissions From Road and Rail

                        200.00


                        180.00


                        160.00


                        140.00
   CO2 Emission (M t)




                        120.00


                                                                              Demand-Based
                        100.00
                                                                              Fleet-Based

                         80.00


                         60.00


                         40.00


                         20.00


                          0.00
                             1990   1995   2000   2005   2010   2015   2020
                                                  Year
UNFCCC- United Nations
Framework Convention on
Climate Change
UNFCCC sets an overall framework for intergovernmental
efforts to tackle the challenge posed by climate change. It
recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource
whose stability can be affected by industrial and other
emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Under the Convention governments:
 gather and share information on greenhouse gas
emissions, national policies and best practices
 launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse
emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the
provision of financial and technological support to
developing countries
 co-operate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of
climate change
Kyoto Protocol and the
Commitments

The overall emission reduction target for
Annex 1 Parties as a group is at least 5
percent below 1990 levels to be achieved
by the commitment period 2008 to 2012
(an average over the five years).

The negotiated targets for individual
Annex I Parties is included in Annex B of
the Protocol.
ANNEX-I Countries

    Annex-I                                            Annex-I
   Countries             +       CTPME*         =     Countries




                                                      Russian
USA            England       Luxembourg    EU         Federation
Germany        Ireland       Norway        Crotaia    Slovakia
Australia      Spain         Portequese    Litvania   Ukraine
Austria        Sweden        Turkey        Hungary    Letonia

Belgium        Switzerla                   Poland     Slovenia
                             New Zealand
               nd
Denmark        Italy         Greece        Romania    Bulgaria
Finland                                               Czech
               Iceland       Canada        Bellarus   Republican
France         Japan         Holland       Estonia

*Countries within the Transition Period for Market Economy
Turkey’s Ratification Period

before the ratification
 Raising public awareness and
development of national capacity                A brief report on the
  to fulfill the commitments of                   emissions of the
               UNFCCC                            country had been
                                                communicated with
                                                   the Secretariat
                                                     through the
   The inter-ministerial National                     document
  Coordination Board on Climate                    FCCC/CP/1997/
Change, initially established in 2001,                 MISC.3.
     was revised in early 2004


decision 26/CP.7 of COP7 in 2001, which placed Turkey after becoming
 a Party, in a situation different from that of other Parties included in
                        Annex I to the Convention.
UNFCCC
Republic of Turkey ratified UNFCCC on 24
May 2004

Benefiting from GEF Funding
Turkey started initiations for benefiting from
the GEF funding for the preparation of the
national communication since the country
eligible for climate change related GEF
funding pursuant to Article 9.b of GEF
Instrument.
   WORK GROUPS

              Working Group I                                Working Group II
  Researching the Effects of Climate Change               Emission Inventory of GHG
          State Meteorological Services                    State Institute of Statistics


             Working Group III                              Working Group IV
 Mitigation of GHG from Industry, B.,W. & S.S.       Mitigation of GHG from Energy Sector
General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources       Gen. Directorate of Energy Works
    Survey and Development Administration
              Working Group V                                Working Group VI
     Mitigation of GHG from Transportation
       General Directorate of Railways,
                                                                LULUCF
                                                    Research and Development Department
       Harbors and Airports Construction

             Working Group VII                              Working Group VIII
Development of Policies and Strategies (MoEF)       Education and Public Awareness (MoEF)
       MoEF Air Management Department                  MoEF Air Management Department
National Climate Change
Programme
• SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
GEF funded UNDP & MoEF Project / 15,000 USD

• TUBITAK PROJECTS
Initiated by UNDP country funds / 25,000 USD

• FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
on CLIMATE CHANGE
GEF funded UNDP & MoEF Project / 405,000 USD
National Communication Activities

       Inventory              Climate Modeling Studies

                        R&D
 Projections   Capacity Development   Vulnerability
                    Awareness

 Mitigations Measures             Adaptation

                     National
                   Climate Plan
   National                           National
Communications                       Inventories
                     UNFCCC
COP 12, Canada 2005
Parties recognised the following mitigation
measures:

   Energy Efficiency
   Renewable Energy
   Forestation
   CO2 Capture and Storage
COP 13, Kenya 2006

Recommendations by Ad-Hoc Working group
for Post-Kyoto Period:
 A working group to be set up under UNFCCC :
        - with the assistance if experts from appropriate
    organizations
        - to enhance capacity building on CCS
        - to resolve issues
        - to draw upon all available expert analysis
   Annex II countries to enable CCS within the CDM
    with a progress report by SBSTA
EU-25 FINAL
ENERGY DEMAND
EU COMMON ENERGY POLICY
GOALS
  Competitiveness: internal market,
competition, interconnections (TENT),
European electricity grid,
research & innovation (clean coal,
carbon sequestration, alternative
fuels, energy efficiency, nuclear)
 Environment: renewable energy,
energy efficiency, nuclear, innovation
& research, emission trading
 Security of Supply: international
dialogue, European stock
management (oil/gas), refining
capacity and storage of ener
GREEN PAPER: PRIORITY AREAS
FOR POSSIBLE COMMON ACTION


  Internal market → towards a fully competitive
internal energy market
 Internal energy supply policy → solidarity among
Member States
 Energy mix → diverse, efficient & sustainable
 Environment → integrated approach to tackling
climate change: energy efficiency, renewable &
low carbon energy production
 Energy technology & innovation → strategic
approach
 External relations → coherent external energy
policy
Implementations in Turkey
Energy Efficiency in Turkey



Draft Law:
Energy Efficiency Draft Law
     Voluntary Agreements
Use of Renewable Energy in
Turkey

- Law on Promotion of Renewable
Energy Resources, 2005
Geothermal Sites and Potentials in
Turkey
Geothermal             Temperature   Potential MW
Site                       . °C
 Denizli-Kızıldere         240            34
 Aydın-Germencik           230            51
 Manisa-Göbeklii           182            0.6
 Çanakkale-Tuzla           174            1,1
  Aydın-Salavatlı          171            7,2
  Kütahya-Simav            162            3,5
 İzmir-Seferihisar         153            0.2
 Manisa-Caferbey           150           0.04
 Aydın-Yılmazköy           142            0.5
    İzmir-Dikili           130           0.01
               Total                     98.2
Source MTA 2006
  Geothermal Community Heating
  Applications in Turkey
     Location            Numbe r      Imple     Water
                            of        me nta   Te mp. °C
                         Housing       tion
                         He ated
 9 Ey lül Uni. Campus-    2500       1983       115-60
          Izmir
          Göne n           3400      1987         80
           Simav           4500      1991        137
          Kırse hir        1800      1994         57
     Kızılcahamam          2500      1995         80
          Balcov a        15000      1996        137
           Afy on          4500      1996         95
           Kozakli         1200      1996         90
          Narlıde re       1500      1998        125
           Sandıkl       3200/5000   1998         70
          Diy adin         400       1999         70
           Salihli       3000/2400   2002         94
                             0
          Saray koy      1500/5000   2002        140
          Edre mit       1300/7500   2003         60
Bigadic                  500/3000    2005         96
  Geothermal Community Heating
  Applications in Turkey
     Location            Numbe r      Imple     Water
                            of        me nta   Te mp. °C
                         Housing       tion
                         He ated
 9 Ey lül Uni. Campus-    2500       1983       115-60
          Izmir
          Göne n           3400      1987         80
           Simav           4500      1991        137
          Kırse hir        1800      1994         57
     Kızılcahamam          2500      1995         80
          Balcov a        15000      1996        137
           Afy on          4500      1996         95
           Kozakli         1200      1996         90
          Narlıde re       1500      1998        125
           Sandıkl       3200/5000   1998         70
          Diy adin         400       1999         70
           Salihli       3000/2400   2002         94
                             0
          Saray koy      1500/5000   2002        140
          Edre mit       1300/7500   2003         60
Bigadic                  500/3000    2005         96
   Hydro Power Electric      Number
   Generation Status         Of Power
                             Stations     Total
                                        Installed     Proven      Total Annual
                                        Capacity
   Hydro Power Electric      Number        MW       Production    Production
   Generation Status         Of Power
   Present Hydro Power       Stations     Total
          Plants                           MW
                                        Installed   (GWh/Year)
                                                      Proven      (GWh/Year)
                                                                  Total Annual
                                        Capacity
   In Production> 10 MW         74         193          287           722
                                           MW       Production    Production
  In Production 10 < MW
   Present Hydro Power          68       12 595       33 273         45 208
         Plants
Under construction > 10 MW      8         MW
                                           45       (GWh/Y ear)
                                                       151        (GWh/Y ear)
                                                                     228
   In Production> 10 MW         74        193           287           722
Under construction 10 < MW      32        3 152        6 207         10 290
  In Production 10 < MW         68       12 595       33 273         45 208
       Present Total
Under construction > 10 MW
                               182
                                8
                                            985
                                         1545         39 918
                                                       151
                                                                    56 448
                                                                     228
 Future Possible Potential
Under construction 10 < MW      32        3 152        6 207         10 290
       Present Total           182       15 985       39 918        56 448
          >5MW                 164        366           571          1 848
 Future Possible Potential
         5 -10 MW               82        610           897          2 587
          >5MW                 164        366           571          1 848
        10 - 50 MW             187        4 727        9 234         18 959
         5 -10 MW               82        610           897          2 587
        50-100MW
        10 - 50 MW             51
                               187        3 692
                                          4 727        7 734
                                                       9 234         13 001
                                                                     18 959
       100 - 250 MW
        50-100MW                37
                                51        5 815
                                          3 692       11 734
                                                       7 824         19 308
                                                                     13 001
       100 - 250 MW
       250 - 500 MW             37
                                10        5 815
                                          3 250       11 620
                                                       5 824         19 308
                                                                     10 688
       250    500
      500 -- 1000MW
                  MW            10
                                2         3 250
                                          1 053        5 620
                                                       2 054         10 688
                                                                     3 173
      500 - 1000 MW             2         1 053        2 054         3 173
        1000 < MW               1         1 200        2 459         3 833
        1000 < MW               1         1 200        2 459         3 833
       Future Total
       Future Total            534
                               534       20 713
                                         20 713       40 393
                                                      40 393        73 398
                                                                    73 398
          TOTAL
          TOTAL                716
                               716       36 698
                                         36 698       80 311
                                                      80 311        129 846
                                                                    129 846
Wind Power in Turkey
Technically and economically viable wind potential :

 88,000 MW and more than 10,000 MW
respectively

 Total installed capacity has reached 50.1
MW, about 1,500 MW is licensed

 Licence applications of 2,500 MW
Other Measures


- Cogeneration
- Removal of the old Cars (more than
15 years older) from the traffic
Development of Cogeneration
Installed Capacity




Source : TEIAS
World Regional Total Primary Energy
consumption – Scenario- B
IIASA / WEC GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
World Regional Final Energy
Consumption – Scenario- B
IIASA / WEC GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
World Sectoral Total Final Energy
Consumption - Scenario B
IIASA / WEC   GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
World Resource Based Final Energy
Consumption - Scenario B
IIASA / WEC GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
World Resource Based Final Energy
Consumption - Scenario C
IIASA / WEC GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
World Regional Total Emission Projektion -
Senaryo B
IIASA / WEC GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
“Thank you”



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