Net Energy Next Energy
China Renewable Energy
Trade Mission 2006
by Ron Swenson
www.SolarQuest.com/Workshops/China
Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have
entered uncharted
territory… Over the 20th
century, … energy
consumption increased
sixteenfold. Global
warming from the fossil
fuel greenhouse became
a major, and increasingly
dominant, factor in
climate change.
Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)
Oil is going to decline …
…but what’s coming up?
Swenson Curve
To avoid
deprivation,
humanity
must match
depletion with
conservation
and enduring
substitution.
www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment
Net Energy Production
120
begin investment before decline
100
80
60
Begin investment
40
during decline
20
0 0 10 20 30 40
Time
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Global Solar Energy Balance
Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts) 178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
Thermodynamics of Coal
Plus…
• Greenhouse gases
1 BOE
• Ravaged land
• Water contamination
• People displaced
• Extraction uses oil
EROI = 927 ~ electric quality
Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …
• Pennsylvania?
• Saudi Arabia?
• Off-shore?
Plus …
• Ravaged land/oceans
• Greenhouse gases
• Water contamination
EROI = 10±
Thermodynamics of Nuclear
Plus …
• Depletion
• Low grade ores
→ Greenhouse
gases to process
… How do we value a
1,000+ year • Waste guard for
wasteland? 10,000+ years
EROI = 4 12 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Tar Sands
Plus…
• Greenhouse gases
• Ravaged land
• Water contamination
• Extraction uses
natural gas
Is it worth the
EROI = 2 or 3 trouble?!
Thermodynamics of Hydrogen
Am I missing
something?!
EROI = -½
Consequences of Making the Wrong Choice
Net Energy Production
120
Moving fast with good solutions
100
80
60
40
Making the wrong choices
20
0 0 10 20 30 40
Time
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Thomas Edison
“I'd put my
money on the
sun and solar
energy. What a
source of power!
I hope we don't
have to wait 'til
oil and coal run
out before we
tackle that.”
(1847-1931)
www.ThomasEdison.com
Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be
bootstrapped
EROI = 1030 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV
• EROI: 6 months
• Life: 20 years
EROI = 40120 ~electric
Next Energy
www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
Since oil is big in the transportation sector…
… a short history lesson.
How did transportation transform?
• from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to
• liquid fuels (oil)
And where do we go from here?
Lest we forget …
They did bring coal to Newcastle.
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result …
...not to mention the
numerous farmers now
employed in growing
hay for horses.
Van Buren 1832
8th President 1837-1841
No joke!
The original
buggy whip
protest
The Horseless Carriage
From GridLock to Gas Lines
Corn Cars & Bean Buses?
Back to solid fuels?
The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)
Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…
… and it is ephemeral, like solar power.
Lift?
See?
Touch?
A match made in heaven.
The Electric Rail
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.ecotopia.com/ST
Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place…
• EROI of biofuels too low for urban transport…
(not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)
• Fuels will remain essential for:
• Airplanes
• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs)
• Agriculture
•But Solar Is the Key to our Transportation Future!
www.ecotopia.com/ST
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result. Captains,
cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders
will be left without means of livelihood, not to
mention the numerous farmers now employed
in growing hay for horses.
Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip,
and harness makers would be left destitute.
Martin van Buren, Governor of New York,
April 1832.
Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
50 2050
50 2004
45 45
40
35
14.5 Terawatts 40
30 220 M BOE/day 35
25 30
20 30 -- 60 Terawatts
25
15 450 – 900 MBOE/day
10 20
5 15
0.5%
0
10
ic
s
as
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al
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al
as
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io
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rm
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al
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al
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Source: BP & IEA
t
m
So
i ss
ec
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o
th
el
/F
Bi
o
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dr
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,g
io
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d
The Basis of Prosperity
Fu
in
w
r,
la
20st Century = Oil
So
21st Century = [Renewables]
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
PV: The Growth Industry
Oil declines at
4%/yr
PV
PV increases
Oil at 50%/yr
The conclusions are simple:
• We are not doing enough fast enough.
• To spend our depleting energy capital
resources effectively, we must first
understand the Thermodynamics
(ERoEI) of the alternatives.
• Then we must act quickly with resolve.
Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?
Colin Campbell
“Photovoltaics …
will be economic
… when there is
serious
production.”
1996
www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
Yes!
“Think
TeraWatts”
www.solarquest.com/Workshops/China
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result. Captains,
cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders
will be left without means of livelihood, not to
mention the numerous farmers now employed
in growing hay for horses.
Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip,
and harness makers would be left destitute.
Martin van Buren, Governor of New York,
April 1832.