Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
California, November 2009: $304,520, Up 5.8% YTY
$700,000 P: May-07
$594,530
$600,000
T: Feb-09
$500,000 $245,170
-59% from
$400,000 peak
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Year-to-Year Percent Change in Sales
By Price Interval
Under 500 500 to 999 1 Mil + Total
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
2005.10
2006.01
2006.04
2006.07
2006.10
2007.01
2007.04
2007.07
2007.10
2008.01
2008.04
2008.07
2008.10
2009.01
2009.04
2009.07
-50%
-100%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.
Year-to-Year Percent Change in Median Price
Within Price Interval
Under 500 500 to 999 1 Mil +
15%
10%
5%
0%
2005.10
2006.01
2006.04
2006.07
2006.10
2007.01
2007.04
2007.07
2007.10
2008.01
2008.04
2008.07
2008.10
2009.01
2009.04
2009.07
-5%
-10%
-15%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.
Sales By Price Range
October 2004 – present
Under 500 500 to 999 1 Mil +
90%
Credit Freeze:
80% 8/2007
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2004.10
2005.01
2005.04
2005.07
2005.10
2006.01
2006.04
2006.07
2006.10
2007.01
2007.04
2007.07
2007.10
2008.01
2008.04
2008.07
2008.10
2009.01
2009.04
2009.07
2009.10
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.
Peak vs. Current Price - November 2009
Peak Nov-09 % Chg
Region Peak Price
Month Median From Peak
High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 $124,710 -62.8%
Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 $329,840 -58.7%
Riverside/San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 $177,840 -57.2%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 $172,070 -56.3%
Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 $188,480 -52.2%
CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 $304,520 -48.8%
Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 $364,230 -43.5%
Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 $359,670 -40.6%
San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 $409,460 -34.0%
Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 $268,700 -39.0%
San Diego May-06 $622,380 $376,450 -39.5%
Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $435,800 -38.7%
San Francisco Bay Area May-07 $853,910 $567,250 -33.6%
Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 $499,020 -33.2%
Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 $605,000 -30.3%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Proportion of First-Time Homebuyers
California
60%
% First-Tim e Hom e Buyers Long Run Average
47.0%
50%
38.6%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
Santa Clara County, November 2009: $605,000, Up 17.5% YTY
$1,000,000
$900,000
Up 36% from Feb 09 Trough of $445K
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul-89
Jul-90
Jul-91
Jul-92
Jul-93
Jul-94
Jul-95
Jul-96
Jul-97
Jul-98
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Sales By Price Range
Bay Area – Existing Homes – Nov 2009 vs. Nov 2008
Percent of Sales By Year
Over 1 Million
750 - 999
Price Range (Thousands)
500 - 749
400 - 499
Nov-08
300 - 399 Nov-09
0 - 299
0% 7% 13% 20% 27% 33%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Median Home Sales Price
Santa Clara County
Yearly %
Nov-09 Nov-08
Change
Santa Clara County $491,000 $455,000 7.9%
Campbell $570,000 $632,500 -9.9%
Cupertino $985,000 $715,000 37.8%
Gilroy $390,000 $390,000 0.0%
Los Altos $1,475,000 $1,555,000 -5.1%
Los Gatos $1,166,500 $1,029,500 13.3%
Milpitas $427,750 $524,000 -18.4%
Morgan Hill $520,000 $390,500 33.2%
Mountain View $739,250 $750,000 -1.4%
Palo Alto $1,222,500 $1,185,000 3.2%
San Jose $429,000 $412,500 4.0%
Santa Clara $525,500 $516,500 1.7%
Sunnyvale $602,000 $636,500 -5.4%
SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived
from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
2010 Forecast
U.S. Economy
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f
US GDP 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.1% 0.4% -2.6% 1.9%
Nonfarm Job
1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.4% -3.7% -1.0%
Growth
Unemployment 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 10.0%
CPI 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.5% 1.9%
Real Disposable
Income, % 3.4% 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.8% 2.1%
Change
Forecast Date: October 2009
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
California Economy
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f
Nonfarm Job
1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.2% -4.3% -1.1%
Growth
Unemployment
6.2% 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.6% 12.1%
Rate
Population
1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%
Growth
Real Disposable
3.6% 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -0.4% 0.1%
Income, % Change
Forecast Date: October 2009
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
California Housing Market Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f
SFH Resales
601.8 624.7 625.0 477.5 346.9 439.8 540.0 527.5
(000s)
% Change 5.1% 3.8% 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 26.8% 22.8% -2.3%
Median Price
$371.5 $450.8 $522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $346.4 $271.0 $280.0
($000s)
% Change 17.5% 21.3% 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -38.2% -21.8% 3.3%
30-Yr FRM 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.2% 5.6%
1-Yr ARM 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.8% 5.2%
Forecast Date: October 2009
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®