Peter Brown, Assistant Director,
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
(203) 535-6203
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.
Public Relations
Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
FOR RELEASE: JANUARY 27, 2012
ROMNEY PULLS AHEAD IN SEE-SAW FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
MEN SHIFT FROM GINGRICH TO ROMNEY
Just four days before the nation’s first big-state presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov.
Mitt Romney opens up a 38 – 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among
Republican likely voters in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Only 6 percent are undecided, but 32 percent say they might change their mind by Tuesday.
This compares to results of a January 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-
uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 36 percent of likely primary voters to Gingrich’s
34 percent. Wednesday’s survey showed Gingrich ahead 40 – 34 percent among voters surveyed
after the South Carolina primary.
In today’s survey, men back Romney 36 – 29 percent, a shift from January 25, when men
backed Gingrich 37 – 33 percent. Romney leads 40 – 30 percent among women, virtually
unchanged.
Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 14 percent of likely primary voters today, with 12 percent
for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
Romney gets a 61 – 28 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared
to 50 – 38 percent favorable for Gingrich, 53 – 19 percent favorable for Santorum and a negative
35 – 42 percent for Paul.
“Speaker Newt Gingrich’s momentum from his South Carolina victory appears to have
stalled and Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be pulling away in Florida,” said Peter A. Brown,
assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Romney also has a better
favorability rating from likely primary voters, which supports his lead in the horse race. Of
course, with four days before Election Day, there is time for another reversal. Three in 10 voters
say they might change their mind.”
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/January 27, 2012 – page 2
“With the debates now over, Gingrich will need some other way to reverse the tide that
appears to be going against him,” Brown added.
From January 24 – 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 580 Republican likely primary
voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and
cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia
and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.
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1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held
today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul,
for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich,
Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Gingrich 29% 29% 30% 36% 16% 39% 27% 41% 24%
Romney 38 36 40 34 50 29 49 20 47
Santorum 12 10 14 15 6 18 10 18 10
Paul 14 19 8 10 20 6 9 16 12
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 1 1
DK/NA 6 5 6 4 5 6 3 4 6
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ 100
Gingrich 30% 29% 17% 36% 32% 27% 23% 37% 30%
Romney 43 36 41 34 43 30 45 36 44
Santorum 12 12 14 12 9 9 12 14 13
Paul 11 15 22 12 9 21 18 9 11
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 -
DK/NA 3 7 6 6 4 12 2 3 2
TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held
today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul,
for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich,
Romney, Santorum, or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)(na= not asked)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09
2012 2012 2012
Gingrich 29 34 24
Romney 38 36 36
Santorum 12 13 16
Paul 14 10 10
Huntsman na na 2
Perry na na 5
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 -
DK/NA 6 7 7
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1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change
your mind before the election?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot NG MR
Mind made up 67% 70% 67%
Might change 32 29 32
DK/NA 1 1 1
TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change
your mind before the election?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09
2012 2012 2012
Mind made up 67 61 44
Might change 32 38 54
DK/NA 1 1 1
2. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 50% 52% 48% 60% 34% 59% 49% 65% 44%
Unfavorable 38 38 37 32 52 29 40 29 42
Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 12 7 11 10 7 4 10
REFUSED 4 4 3 2 3 2 4 2 4
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ 100
Favorable 55% 48% 45% 53% 53% 41% 48% 60% 55%
Unfavorable 37 38 39 40 35 35 40 33 40
Hvn't hrd enough 6 10 14 5 8 20 7 6 4
REFUSED 2 4 3 3 4 4 4 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09
2012 2012 2012
Favorable 50 61 59
Unfavorable 38 26 29
Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 9
REFUSED 4 3 2
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3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 61% 60% 63% 63% 67% 56% 73% 61% 64%
Unfavorable 28 32 24 29 22 31 20 33 25
Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 11 7 11 11 5 5 8
REFUSED 2 2 2 1 - 2 2 1 3
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ 100
Favorable 72% 56% 55% 63% 70% 48% 66% 63% 73%
Unfavorable 23 30 30 29 21 29 30 27 23
Hvn't hrd enough 4 11 15 6 6 21 2 8 3
REFUSED 1 2 - 2 4 2 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09
2012 2012 2012
Favorable 61 71 73
Unfavorable 28 19 14
Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 10
REFUSED 2 3 3
4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 53% 54% 51% 60% 43% 63% 48% 67% 48%
Unfavorable 19 23 15 14 27 14 21 17 18
Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 32 25 28 21 30 15 31
REFUSED 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 3
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ 100
Favorable 61% 49% 48% 56% 53% 41% 52% 58% 65%
Unfavorable 18 20 23 18 15 21 18 19 20
Hvn't hrd enough 20 29 29 24 27 37 27 23 15
REFUSED 1 3 1 2 4 1 4 - -
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09
2012 2012 2012
Favorable 53 58 59
Unfavorable 19 13 8
Hvn't hrd enough 26 28 33
REFUSED 2 2 -
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5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 35% 42% 28% 33% 42% 29% 33% 39% 33%
Unfavorable 42 42 43 47 33 51 40 49 41
Hvn't hrd enough 20 13 27 17 25 19 25 11 24
REFUSED 3 3 3 3 - 1 2 2 3
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ 100
Favorable 39% 34% 44% 34% 29% 37% 40% 34% 39%
Unfavorable 43 41 34 43 48 37 33 51 42
Hvn't hrd enough 15 22 22 19 19 26 25 14 18
REFUSED 2 3 - 3 4 - 2 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09
2012 2012 2012
Favorable 35 36 34
Unfavorable 42 40 47
Hvn't hrd enough 20 20 19
REFUSED 3 3 1
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