global worming Global Warming Energy Challenges CMAQ Presentation by navneet.patel

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									Global Warming
Energy Challenges
  CMAQ Presentation
   January 9, 2006
             Overview
• Greenhouse effect
  – Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise
  – Forcing models / temperature predictions
• Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)
• Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak
  – Future and current energy challenges
• Energy equity – the road ahead
    Solar Energy and earth’s Heat




http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions




  It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll
burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?
Rising CO2 over 50 Years




http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
      Carbon Emissions and CO2
                                      • Carbon burned => CO2
     Year   C burned     ppm CO2
       1900     12307         295
                                      • Linear from 1850 to 2000
       1910     19174         300         - ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C
       1920     28050         305            + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
       1930     37914         310     • ~ 50% of carbon goes
       1940     48566         310
       1950     62324         315
                                        into atmospheric CO2
       1960     83453         320         – 33% into the oceans
       1970    115935         325     • Trend is constant over
       1980    164083         340
       1990    219365         350
                                        150 years – is this how
       2000    283373         370       the biosphere will react
                                        over the next 150 years?
A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
Global Warming - the 20th Century




     http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
Earth Out of Balance




http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Forcing, Predicted Temperature,
and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100
         5
       4.5
         4
       3.5
         3
                                                       Forcing
       2.5
                                                       Felt
         2
                                                       Owed
       1.5
         1
       0.5
         0
             2000   2025    2050    2075   2100

0F   - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
Consequences of Warming
 • Thinning of polar ice caps
    – Thawing permafrost / release of methane
 • Slowing of the thermohaline cycle
 • Rising sea level, perhaps quickly
 • Extreme weather events
    – Extended regions of drought
    – Extremes of temperature / duration
    – Extremes of storms and hurricanes
 All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
 The Melting North Pole




The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,
and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these
rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.
     http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/
           Storms on the Move




    Katrina moving
     across Florida       And grows from a
 in late August 2005       category 1 to a
  finds warm water       category 5 hurricane
in the Gulf of Mexico    in less than 2 days!
Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’




  http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
      Oil Production – Reserves




Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
 Projected Energy Demand




http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
          Energy Equity
• Burning oil is burning money!
• Build an energy infrastructure with equity
• Solar energy is primary, not alternative!
  – $25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’
  – Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in
    manufacturing, and 8 for local installers
• Built in America, by Americans, for
  America, what could be more economic?
        http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
               Summary
•   Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle
•   Forcing models – temperature lag
•   Effect of warming just one degree
•   Peak oil – declining energy production
•   Energy Equity – and the road ahead
    – Our single biggest challenge
    – Our single biggest opportunity
              References
•   http://www.realclimate.org/
•   http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
•   http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html
•   http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/
•   http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
•   http://www.nrel.gov/
•   http://www.eia.doe.gov/
•   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

								
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