Docstoc

PowerPoint Presentation - Population Association of America

Document Sample
PowerPoint Presentation - Population Association of America Powered By Docstoc
					  School comes first then comes marriage then comes baby:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Li Zhu and Jennifer Glick
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Center for Population Dynamics,
  Racial and ethnic variations in the path to first birth in the United States                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             School of Social and Family Dynamics,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Arizona State University
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Figure 1a:                                                                                                                                                                                                 Figure 3:
Research Questions:                                                  Data and Methods                                                                                                                                      Proportion Married by Race and Educational Attainment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.5                                                                                                                                                            Marital Birth Probability by Race and Age for Bachelor Holders
                                                                        NELS 88 -00 (National Education Longitudinal Study):–                                                                                              0.45
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.3




                                                                     Longitudinal Data ( 5 Waves, 12 years span; age 14 followed                                                                                             0.4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.25                                                                                                                                              A stronger delaying
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   effect of college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Female
                                                                     to age 26)                                                                                                                                              0.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 completion for blacks


                                                                       Sample size: N = 10,240                                                                                                                               0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.15


  Does education have the same delaying effect on the timing of         (Asian: 726 Hispanic: 1330 Black: 952 White: 7232)                                                                                                 0.15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Figure 2:                                   0.1

first birth among young adults from different racial/ethnic            Discrete–Time Event History Model                                                                                                                   0.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Kaplan Meier Estimator of first birth survival function for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Asian                  Hispanic                        Black                     White   Asians and Blacks by Marital Status
groups?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.05
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       A weaker effect
                                                                      Key measures                                                                                                                                                           Before H.S.   After H.S. and before College     After bachelor degree                                                                                                                                                                     on Asians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0


  Does the timing of marriage mediate the relationship between          Dependent variable: Timing of first birth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          14        15        16        17        18        19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Asian
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20          21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hispanic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 22

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Black
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           23

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           White
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        24        25        26        27        28




education and timing of first birth across these racial/ethnic         (1 = “had a first birth” and 0= “no first birth/censored”)                                                                                                                                                                                                   Non-married Asians
groups?                                                                        Main independent variables:                                                                                                                                                   Figure 1b:
                                                                               H.S graduation: Timing of high school graduation. Will                                                                                     Proportion with Births by Race and Educational Attainment                                                Married Asians                                                  0.6



                                                                               indicate when respondent graduated.                                                                                                          0.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Non married blacks
Previous Research:                                                             (1= “graduated from H.S.” and 0 =“ no graduation/censored”)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.45


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.5



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Married blacks
  Schooling and employment experiences are very important in                                                                                                                                                               0.35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Male
                                                                               College graduation: Timing of Bachelor degree.                                                                                               0.3

the timing and sequencing of family formation behaviors.                       (1=“received Bachelor degree” and 0= “have no bachelor                                                                                      0.25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.3




  Family formation varies significantly across racial/ethnic                   degree/censored”)                                                                                                                            0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.15

groups.                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.1



  Asians, both girls and boys, have particular low rates of first              Martial status: Timing of Marriage.                                                                                                         0.05
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.1




                                                                               (1 =“ married “ and 0= “ not married/censored”)                                                                                               0

birth before high school graduation and particular low non-                                                                                                                                                                          Asian

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Before H.S.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Hispanic

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           After H.S. and before College
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Black

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             After bachelor degree
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     White
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                14        15        16        17        18        19           20          21         22        23           24        25        26        27        28

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Asian        Hispanic       Black        White

marital fertility, compared to other racial/ethnic groups.                     Control variables:                                                                                                                            Data Source: NELS 88 -00
                                                                               Family income in 1988
                                                                               Father/Mother’s education                                                                                                                           Conclusions and Discussions:
Hypotheses:                                                                    Number of siblings
  Education will have a differential effect on the timing of first             Parent and Child’s educational expectations in 1988. (Higher                                                                                           It is not only educational attainment or marital status per se that influence the timing of the first birth. The timing
birth for youths across racial/ethnic groups.                                  expectations are expected to increase schooling and delay first
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    and sequence of these events explain much of the differences among young adults from different racial/ethnic
  The effect of education on the timing of first birth will vary               birth)
                                                                                                                                                                  There is considerable racial/ethnic variation                     groups. This effect is most salient for Asian young adults.
by the type of schooling under consideration. High school                                                                                                         in the age at family formation. Blacks are
                                                                                                                                                                  younger at first birth and older at marriage

                                                                       Mean Ages of Marriage and Birth                                                            (i.e. high nonmarital fertility) while Asians                           Low marriage rates and high educational attainment explain much of the delay in first birth among Asians
completion will be associated with a greater probability of first                                                                                                 have the highest ages of both events (i.e.
                                                                                                                                                                  largest delays in family formation)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       compared to other racial groups.
birth and college completion will be associated with lower
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The probability of non-marital births is especially high among blacks but for those who complete college,
probability of first birth                                                                Male                                                                          Female
                                                                         26                                                                        26


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       probabilities of first birth decrease more than other groups.
  Marriage timing will explain some of the racial/ethnic
                                                                                                                                                  25.5
                                                                        25.5

                                                                                                                                                   25


                                                                         25
                                                                                                                                                  24.5



differences in birth timing                                             24.5
                                                                                                                                                   24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The current research only captures the early life course for young adults, many of the respondent in this sample
                                                                                                                                                  23.5



  Racial groups have different normative paths from                      24




                                                                        23.5
                                                                                                                                                   23


                                                                                                                                                  22.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    have not given birth yet during the observation period so we cannot distinguish the extent to which these are delays
school/marriage to birth
                                                                                 A sian   Hispanic                               Black   W hi e
                                                                                                                                             t           A sian   Hispanic                               Black       t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 W hi e


                                                                                                   r       r age
                                                                                                 Fi st M ar i      Fi st B i t
                                                                                                                     r      rh                                             r       r age
                                                                                                                                                                         Fi st M ar i      Fi st B i t
                                                                                                                                                                                             r      rh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    or family formation forgone.

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:4
posted:1/27/2012
language:
pages:1