School comes first then comes marriage then comes baby: Li Zhu and Jennifer Glick Center for Population Dynamics, Racial and ethnic variations in the path to first birth in the United States School of Social and Family Dynamics, Arizona State University Figure 1a: Figure 3: Research Questions: Data and Methods Proportion Married by Race and Educational Attainment 0.5 Marital Birth Probability by Race and Age for Bachelor Holders NELS 88 -00 (National Education Longitudinal Study):– 0.45 0.3 Longitudinal Data ( 5 Waves, 12 years span; age 14 followed 0.4 0.35 0.25 A stronger delaying effect of college Female to age 26) 0.3 0.25 0.2 completion for blacks Sample size: N = 10,240 0.2 0.15 Does education have the same delaying effect on the timing of (Asian: 726 Hispanic: 1330 Black: 952 White: 7232) 0.15 0.1 Figure 2: 0.1 first birth among young adults from different racial/ethnic Discrete–Time Event History Model 0.05 0 Kaplan Meier Estimator of first birth survival function for Asian Hispanic Black White Asians and Blacks by Marital Status groups? 0.05 A weaker effect Key measures Before H.S. After H.S. and before College After bachelor degree on Asians 0 Does the timing of marriage mediate the relationship between Dependent variable: Timing of first birth 14 15 16 17 18 19 Asian 20 21 Hispanic 22 Black 23 White 24 25 26 27 28 education and timing of first birth across these racial/ethnic (1 = “had a first birth” and 0= “no first birth/censored”) Non-married Asians groups? Main independent variables: Figure 1b: H.S graduation: Timing of high school graduation. Will Proportion with Births by Race and Educational Attainment Married Asians 0.6 indicate when respondent graduated. 0.5 Non married blacks Previous Research: (1= “graduated from H.S.” and 0 =“ no graduation/censored”) 0.45 0.4 0.5 Married blacks Schooling and employment experiences are very important in 0.35 0.4 Male College graduation: Timing of Bachelor degree. 0.3 the timing and sequencing of family formation behaviors. (1=“received Bachelor degree” and 0= “have no bachelor 0.25 0.3 Family formation varies significantly across racial/ethnic degree/censored”) 0.2 0.2 0.15 groups. 0.1 Asians, both girls and boys, have particular low rates of first Martial status: Timing of Marriage. 0.05 0.1 (1 =“ married “ and 0= “ not married/censored”) 0 birth before high school graduation and particular low non- Asian Before H.S. Hispanic After H.S. and before College Black After bachelor degree White 0 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Asian Hispanic Black White marital fertility, compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Control variables: Data Source: NELS 88 -00 Family income in 1988 Father/Mother’s education Conclusions and Discussions: Hypotheses: Number of siblings Education will have a differential effect on the timing of first Parent and Child’s educational expectations in 1988. (Higher It is not only educational attainment or marital status per se that influence the timing of the first birth. The timing birth for youths across racial/ethnic groups. expectations are expected to increase schooling and delay first and sequence of these events explain much of the differences among young adults from different racial/ethnic The effect of education on the timing of first birth will vary birth) There is considerable racial/ethnic variation groups. This effect is most salient for Asian young adults. by the type of schooling under consideration. High school in the age at family formation. Blacks are younger at first birth and older at marriage Mean Ages of Marriage and Birth (i.e. high nonmarital fertility) while Asians Low marriage rates and high educational attainment explain much of the delay in first birth among Asians completion will be associated with a greater probability of first have the highest ages of both events (i.e. largest delays in family formation) compared to other racial groups. birth and college completion will be associated with lower The probability of non-marital births is especially high among blacks but for those who complete college, probability of first birth Male Female 26 26 probabilities of first birth decrease more than other groups. Marriage timing will explain some of the racial/ethnic 25.5 25.5 25 25 24.5 differences in birth timing 24.5 24 The current research only captures the early life course for young adults, many of the respondent in this sample 23.5 Racial groups have different normative paths from 24 23.5 23 22.5 have not given birth yet during the observation period so we cannot distinguish the extent to which these are delays school/marriage to birth A sian Hispanic Black W hi e t A sian Hispanic Black t W hi e r r age Fi st M ar i Fi st B i t r rh r r age Fi st M ar i Fi st B i t r rh or family formation forgone.
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