Disasters and Poverty Reduction in a changing Climate - International Experience and Implications for China 17th International Forum for Poverty Reduction Beijing, China October 2009 “Interventions geared towards mitigating the adverse effects of disasters and crises are a vital part of efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals… it is the poor, the vulnerable and the oppressed who are most affected by environmental degradation, natural hazards……. (UN General Assembly 2004: 20). The Risk-Poverty Nexus • “Poverty and vulnerability to disasters are closely linked” – Managing disaster risk in emerging economies, World Bank (ed., 2000). • “Sustainable poverty reduction is proving to be an elusive goal, and this is partly because disasters are not being properly factored into development” - DFID policy brief (2004). • “Only 11% of those exposed to hazards live in low human development countries, but 53% of disaster mortality is concentrated in those countries” - Reducing Disaster Risk: a Challenge for Development, UNDP-BCPR (2004) ISDR GAR09: Global risk is driven by poverty and weak governance Risk levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue: Poor in Asia concentrated in Disaster Hotspots Approach to mainstreaming DRR into Poverty Reduction Plans 1. Analytical and diagnostic work: role of natural hazards Significant disaster risk? on poverty level. CHINA : Droughts, Yes No Floods,Seismic risk representatives from highly vulnerable segments of the poor. 2. Set poverty reduction objectives:. to build disaster risk reduction No further need On-going consultation with stakeholders, including into the key medium and long-term objectives. to consider disaster risk 3. Prioritise public actions for poverty reduction: actions to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards in designing macroeconomic, structural & social policies & programmes to reduce poverty & promote pro-poor growth. 4. Establish M&E procedures: Include relevant disaster risk reduction short- and long-term targets and indicators, in particular capturing impacts on the poor & on reduced vulnerability rather than reduced losses. 5. World Bank-IMF assessment: whether natural hazard risks & related measures to enhance resilience. 6. Implementation, evaluation and feedback: Assess disaster risk achievements & shortcomings, including adequacy of initial analysis. Step 1: Analytical and Diagnostic Work • Whether vulnerability to natural hazards helps to identify the poor • analyse the severity of poverty, identify correlated factors : • National Platforms can participate in Poverty reductions analytic and Diagnostic work China :Where are the Poor Dramatic decline in poverty from 31% in 1990 to 10% by 2005 Persistent Poverty remains in remote, hazard prone regions :superimposing drought and flood risk map on Poverty : to prioritize public investments to reduce risk of droughts and earthquakes and floods affecting the livelihoods of the poor Step 2 :Prioritize public actions for poverty reduction • Sectoral policies and programmes to address MDGs Education, health, infrastructure made disaster resilient • Macroeconomic and structural policies Ensure that structural adjustments, like user fees on irrigation do not reduce coping capacity of vulnerable • Governance : decentralisation and empowerment and fiscal autonomy to address risk at local Government level, • Costs, budget and financing : mitigation funds as part of regular Plan budgets to ensure disaster resilient infrastructure and livelihoods assets Priority Public actions risk-poverty nexus 1. Diversifying livelihoods to address local disaster risks sustainability in rural areas 2. Financial and executive autonomy to urban and rural local governments to reduce local risks 3. Financing private risk mitigation through micro finance and risk transfer through parametric insurance 4. Restoring ecosystem for sustainable livelihoods 5. Instituting community and local level disaster risk reduction urban and local governance reduces risk and poverty Good urban governance Disaster risk reduction Partnerships between community Hazard mapping used to identify safe organizations and local sites for housing governments to acquire land with secure tenure for low-income households Loan schemes for house-building and Technical assistance to introduce safe improvement building standards as part of loan package Improvements in sanitation and other Improved drainage in flood prone infrastructure provision areas and public works to mitigate hazards Participatory planning involving Disaster preparedness and response community organizations and plans and early warning systems local governments Public investments in schools and Retrofitting existing facilities and health facilities in low-income ensuring that all new community areas infrastructure is built safely on secure sites Step 3 Establish monitoring and evaluation procedures • quantitative indicators (with related baseline data from which to measure progress where relevant) • use indicators disaggregated by geo climatic or geophysical zones, related to MDG indicators which the national Governments have committed to monitor Examples of quantitative Indicators Goals and Targets Disaster risk Indicators Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1. Proportion of population below $1 per day does not fluctuate with variations in Halve, between 1990 and 2015, hydro-meteorological phenomenon the proportion of people whose (rainfall, cyclones, floods) and hazard income is less than one dollar a events like earthquakes day Share of poorest quintile in national consumption does not decline in years of extreme weather and hazard events like cyclones, earthquakes Target 2. Prevalence of underweight children (under five years of age) does not increase during Halve, between 1990 and 2015, occurrence of droughts, floods, earthquakes the proportion of people who event suffer from hunger Goal 2. Achieve universal primary education :Wenchuan earthquake, 7000 Children died Target 3. Percentage of primary schools certified to be in conformity with hazard resistant Ensure that, by 2015, children standards relevant for the region everywhere, boys and girls alike, Loss of school days at schools used as will be able to complete a full shelters does not exceed x% over that of other schools. course of primary schooling Step 4: Implementation, evaluation feedback • Assess disaster risk achievements and shortcomings as part of the evaluation and draw on lessons learned • Participatory consultation – Consultations on the contribution of disasters to problems of poverty and related options for strengthening resilience should be repeated several times during the Poverty Reduction Planning – for instance, in determining programmes of action; and in evaluation and lessons learning What's next on the risk-poverty agenda? – Recommendations of GAR09 1. Known Disaster Risk reduction methods are cost effective means of adapting to climate change 2. Focus development policy on addressing the underlying risk drivers Build the capacities of urban and local governments to integrate disaster risk reduction considerations into a broader strategy. Invest in natural resource management, infrastructure development, livelihood generation and social protection to reduce vulnerability and strengthen the resilience of rural livelihoods. Protect and enhance ecosystem services through mechanisms such as protected area legislation, payment for ecosystem services and integrated planning. Shift the emphasis of social protection from an exclusive focus on response to include pre-disaster mechanisms and more effective targeting of the most vulnerable groups. 3. Invest to reduce risk additional investments factor disaster risk reduction considerations into all new development Conclusion In order to: – Achieve Millennium Development Goal of Halving number of poor by 2015 We need to urgently address the underlying disaster risk drivers: – poor urban governance; – ecosystem decline; – vulnerable rural livelihoods – Increase investments in disaster reduction can avertt impacts of changing climate Fortunately, we know what to do. We must act now!
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