Prospects of creating a CDM project pipeline in the Philippines

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					Prospects of creating a CDM project pipeline in the Philippines
3rd Asian Regional Workshop on CD4CDM 23rd March 2004 Siem Reap, Cambodia

Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Emissions inventory Carbon mitigation potential Renewable energy plans LULUCF potential Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline

1. Emissions inventory
1994 Greenhouse Gas Inventory

GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector

GHG Emissions from the Industrial Sector

GHG Emissions from the Agriculture Sector

GHG Emissions from the Waste Sector

GHG Emissions and Sinks in the LUCF Sector

2. Carbon mitigation potentials

Power Generation Mix
120,000

100,000

80,000
GWh

60,000

40,000

Others Biomass Geothermal Hydro Natural Gas Coal Diesel Fuel Oil

20,000

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year

CO2 Emissions from Energy Sector (PEP 2001 – 2011)
160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Natural Gas Geothermal Oil Coal

Potential CO2 Avoidance from Energy Efficiency Programs (PEP 2001 – 2011)
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Govt. ENERCON Program Energy Management Services System Loss Reduction DSM Efficiency/Energy Labelling HRI

CDM POTENTIAL PROJECTS
 Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement

Strategy (ALGAS)
 analyzed mitigation of 12 Asian countries, including the Philippines  Philippine project priority areas:  energy

 transport
 agriculture  wastes

5

Abatement Cost (US $/ton CO2)

0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Annual CO2 Reduction Potential (mill t CO2) 0 3 6 9 12 15

Philippine GHG Abatement Cost and Potential
Source: ALGAS
Abatement Cost (US $ / ton CO2) Abatement Option Abatement Potential (mill t CO2/year)

CFL Industrial Boilers System Loss Reduction Industrial Motors Eff Air Conditioning Eff Refrigerators Heat Rate Improvement Eff Transport Wind Power Biomass Power Solar Power CC Natural Gas

1.10 0.37 2.32 0.24 1.47 0.37 5.26 1.34 0.24 0.12 0.12 1.83

-26.3 -26.0 -17.2 -13.7 -6.1 -5.4 -5.1 -2.9 -1.6 0.3 1.4 2.4

SPECIFIC WIND POTENTIAL POWER SITES
BATANES 1,100 KW
NORTHERN LUZON 120 MW MARINDUQUE ISLAND 3,000 kW LUBANG ISLAND 330 kW MINDORO ISLAND-ORIENTAL 13,500 kW BUSUANGA ISLAND 330 kW CUYO ISLAND 330 kW PALAWAN ISLAND 9,000 kW SIQUIJOR ISLAND 1,000 kW CASIGURAN 500 kW POLILLO ISLAND 500 kW CATANDUANES 2,250 kW TABLAS ISLAND 1,500 kW

ROMBLON ISLAND 1,000 kW
MASBATE ISLAND 3,000 kW DINAGAT ISLAND 3,000 kW

POTENTIAL CAPACITY:

160,340 kW

Solar Energy Resource Potential
Average insolation of 5- 6 kWh/sq. m/day all throughout the country

1990-2025 Equivalent CO2 Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Generation (million tons)
35
30.78

30 25 20
15.04 18.97 16.86 14.23 12.11 12.12 9.87 10.49 24.15 20.01

constant generation rates changing generation rates

15 10 5 0 1990 1995
5.86 7.33 7.33 5.45 9.19

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Year

3. Renewable energy plans
Philippine Energy Plan Department of Energy

OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR
1st Nine Months Y-O-Y NPC Power Generation 2002
Diesel 4% Nat Gas 6% Oil 3% Gas CC 3%

2003
Diesel 4% Oil 3% Gas CC 1% Gas Turbine 0%

Gas Turbine 0% Coal 39%

Nat Gas 12%

Coal 33%

Hydro 18% Geo 27%

Hydro 20%

Geo 27%

NPC Generation : 27,917.41 GWh Renewable Power Mix: 45%

NPC Generation : 29,447.58 GWh Renewable Power Mix: 47%

RE POLICY FRAMEWORK
Long – Term Objectives

 Increase RE-based capacity by 100% by 2012  Be the No.1 geothermal energy producer in the world

 Be the No. 1 wind energy producer in SE Asia
 Double hydro capacity by 2012  New contribution of biomass, solar and ocean by 131 MW  Become a regional solar manufacturing export hub  Increase non-power contribution of RE to the energy mix by 10
MMBFOE within the next ten years

RE POLICY FRAMEWORK
10 – Year Targets, MW
2002 Target Add’l. Capacity 1,200 2,950 2013

Geothermal Hydro

1,931 2,518

3,131 5,468

Wind
Solar, Biomass, Ocean

0
0

417
131

417
131

TOTAL

4,449

4,698

9,147

4. LULUCF potential

Potential CDM forestry projects
1. Reforestation and tree plantations
• could easily meet requirements for additionality

2. Agroforestry and community forestry
• greatest socio-economic benefits • risks may be greater

3. Dendrothermal power plants
• Ipil-ipil fed power plants

“CDM”able Forest Lands
F o re s t la n d c o ve r d is trib u tio n in th e P h illip p in e s (to ta l a re a = 1 5 .9 M h a )
(S o u rc e : L a s c o a n d P u lh in , 2 0 0 0 ; F M B , 1 9 9 6 )

P ro te c tio n fo re s t 17% U p la n d fa rm s 34%

CDM

S e c o n d a ry fo re s t 18% P la n ta tio n s 3%

CDM
B ru s h la n d s 15%

CDM
G ra s s la n d s 13%

Potential forest lands for CDM
• those the need to be permanently forested: critical watersheds, forest reserves, IPAS sites (4.6 M ha) • degraded land areas: 3.5 M ha

Example of Degraded Watershed
Present Land Cover of Upper Magat Watershed (in ha) Total Area= 227,919 ha

15,289 (7%)

18,094 (8%)

7,809 (3%) 57,133 (25%) Built-up/Open land Forest Grassland Non-tree agriculture Secondary forest/tree plantationn

129,594 (57%)

Lasco and Pulhin, 2003

Imperata grasslands cover > 2 M ha

5. Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline

Potential projects
• Being considered by World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund • Endorsed by the Philippine Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change • Received “Letter of No Objection” from the Secretary of the Department of Environment & Natural Resources

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS
Northwind Wind Power
 Northwind Wind Power
Project
 Project site located in Bangui, Ilocos Norte  Total installed capacity of 25.5 MW

 Estimated emission reduction potential of 76,218 tCO2e annually

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS
Talisay Cogeneration Plant
 Proposed cogeneration plant
to utilize waste product of sugar cane
 Host facility is First Farmers Holding Corporation (FFHC)  Consists of 2 x 85 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg and 480°C and a single condensing steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 30 MW  Estimated emission reduction potential 54,457 to 133,466 tCO2e annually

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS
Victorias Bagasse Cogeneration
 Proposed cogeneration plant
to utilize waste product of sugar cane
 To be located at the Victorias Milling facility  Consists of 2 x 160 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg & 480°C & a single back pressure steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 50 MW  Emission reduction potential 71,329 to 182,896 tCO2e annually

Maraming salamat!!
• Roberto C. Yap, Ph.D.
Environmental Economist klima – Climate Change Center Manila Observatory Philippines Tel +63 2 426-6144 Fax +63 2 426-6070 rcyap@ateneo.edu


				
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