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					                  UNFCCC WORKSHOP
     ON PREPARATION OF NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS
               FROM ANNEX I PARTIES




Bulgaria GHG Emission Projections - Methodology and
              Institutional Arrangements

     Dr. Christo Christov,                        Teodor Ivanov
     Energoproekt, Sofia                          Ministry of Environment and Water
     e-mail: nhh@enpro.bg                         IvanovT@moew.dovrn.bg
     tel: ++359 2 68 80 34                        ++359 2 981 44 12




                                  Bonn, Germany
                             28 February - 2 March 2001
                                                                                      1
Energoproekt - coordinator of Climate Change study,
research and development of National Communications,
Inventories, Projections and Policies&Measures

  Company was established in 1948
  Study and design of power projects
  Energy and power system study and research,
   electric system expansion planning,
   mid and long-term energy planning,
   environmental impact of power projects,
   energy efficiency,
   policy analysis,
   nuclear safety,
   hydro, thermal and nuclear power plants, transmission lines,
     substation, urban and rural networks design and supervision.



                                                                    2
     Bulgaria and UN Framework Convention
               on Climate Change

   Bulgaria signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change in
    Rio. The country ratified the Convention in March 1995 thus
    taking the commitment to keep its GHG emissions below those in
    the base year.
    Pursuant to article 4 (paragraph 6) of the UNFCCC, Bulgaria used
    its right to choose as a base year a year different from the
    commonly accepted 1990, and adopted 1988 as a base year under
    the Convention.
   COP 3 Kyoto - the reduction target for Bulgaria during the first
    commitment period is 92 (i.e. 8% reduction). Such a reduction
    requires timely development of mitigation measures and their
    implementation at different levels - households, region, state.


                                                                        3
Bulgaria as one of the countries with economies in transition undergoes
economic transformation, accompanied by the process of privatisation and
restructuring of the industry. The process of transformation brings industrial
production decline and related decrease of energy demand and CO 2 emissions
levels.
        .       Trend of GHG emissions – [CO equivalent emissions]
                                               2
GHG           1988    1990    1991      1992     1993     1994      1995     1996     1997     1998
                                             CO2 equivalent (Gg)
CO2         103 856 84 136 66 043      59 183 61 859 59 178        62 332   60 710   58 742   55 150
CH4          28 009 29 602 28 420      26 188 23 550 17 178        18 641   17 370   14 775   13 743
N2O          25 225 23 964 21 217      18 339 16 675 16 230        17 110   16 642   16 295   14 777
HFCs              0       0       0         0       0         0         0        0        0      577
PFCs              0       0       0         0       0         0         0        0        0       69
SF6               0       0       0         0       0         0         0        0        0        0
Total       157 090 137 701 115 679   103 710 102 084 92 586       98 083   94 722   89 811   84 316
Trend - %       100      88      74        66      65        59        62       60       57       54
1988 = 100%

                                                                                                  4
   Under the existing social and economic circumstances in Bulgaria, the
    guiding rule of the Bulgarian climate change policy is joining the
    international efforts in the field to the level consistent with the
    national economy and the potential for attracting foreign
    investments to be used for GHG mitigation.
   Mitigation policy and measures should be as cost-effective and
    economically beneficial as possible.

                          DOCUMENTS
   First National Communication  February 1996.
   Second National Communication April 1998.
   National Action Plan          June 2000.

   Third National Communication ???     November 2001.

                                                                            5
          First National Communication
         Projections, Policies&Measures

Objective:
Developing and analyzing:
 Baseline emission scenario
 Emission mitigation scenario
 Mitigation policy and measures identification at macroeconomic, sectoral
   and utility level
 Effect of the policies and measures at sectorial and utility level



Tools:
   Macroeconomic econometric model of neokeynsianian monetary type on
    macro and intersectoral level
   Bottom-up energy demand model + expert judgements
   ENPEP modules (ELECTRIC, BALANCE, IMPACT), IRP and DSM
    Manager - EPRI

                                                                             6
   Macroeconomic Alternatives

Two scenarios:
 Baseline scenario - no major changes in the economic structure and
  energy demand structure, moderate technology innovation process,
  slow energy efficiency improvements (business-as-usual scenario)
 Mitigation scenario - significant restructuring of economy, energy
  demand pattern change, including natural gas supply to households,
  use of renewable sources, intensive DSM in households and
  industry, energy conservation policy

Results:
 Projections on GDP and production volumes for sectors and
  subsectors
 Socio-demographic projections (population, employment,
  unemployment, number of households)
                                                                       7
      Energy Demand Forecast
Based on two macroeconomic alternatives (GDP growth and structure,
industrial production volumes, investment levels, import-export, etc.)
                                   and
Bottom-up approach with expert judgements for the penetration of
new technologies.
Policies and Measures were developed at this stage.
Useful and final energy demand projections for energy and fuels -
electricity, heat, coal, natural gas, etc.for:
•   industry (metallurgy, chemistry, building materials and other subsectors);
•   transport ( by types: railways, automobiles, public, water, air and pipeline);
•   agriculture;
•   public sector (households and services);
•   energy sector (including oil extraction, oil processing and gas transportation, coal mining,
    coke and briquettes production as subsectors).


                                                                                              8
Energy System Simulation
ELECTRIC and IRP Manager provide Power Sector least cost expansion plan
BALANCE provides projections on primary fuel quantities, fuel and energy flows


Emission Projection
IMPACT provides projections on energy sector GHG emissions :
    - by sectors and total (“bottom-up” approach)
    - total/reference approach (“top-down” approach for CO2 emissions)
Non-energy emissions were not projected in the 1st NC.
Implemented emission calculation methodology follows the IPCC Guidelines for
  GHG inventory, including structure and emission factors.
Policies&Measures - general survey of strategies, legislation and sectors status.
  Effect is assessed at sector level


                                                                               9
           Second National Communication

   The same methodology and approach as in the First Communication
   Additional objectives were set to the projections:
     • to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet its obligations
        under Kyoto
     • to identify the most efficient policies and measures at
        macroeconomic, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households level.
   Single macroeconomic scenario was used, due to the understanding
    that the introduced Currency Board would not allow for path of
    economic development other than the planed one.
   Non-energy emissions were projected based on the forecast for the
    emission source categories.
    Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the main source of the
                       emission projections uncertainty
                                                                          10
Macroeconomic Alternatives - First and Second National
    Communication - Macro-economic indicators

        Indicator             Unit        Scenario    1995     2000     2005   2010     2015    2020
Population                  thousand         BS       8460     8417     8375   8333     8292    8250
                             people         EES       8460     8417     8375   8333     8292    8250
                                            CBS       8385     8040     8020   8000     7980    7960
GDP                        billion BGL       BS      187.7    232.5    320.0   436.4    575.8   741.9
                           (prices ‘92)     EES      187.7    211.3    276.3   376.7    507.3   713.6
                                            CBS      205.6    194.2    257.6     337    423.8   520.6
Production index:
Industry                       %           BS         100      118      155      204      263    336
                                           EES        100      105      134      182      248    345
                                           CBS        100       93      131      167      207    253
Construction                   %           BS         100      133      181      251      334    432
                                           EES        100      106      136      183      244    338
                                           CBS        100       86      114      149      188    231
Agriculture and Forestry       %           BS         100      129      174      232      300    379
                                           EES        100      118      156      214      291    413
                                           CBS        100       91      123      165      211    263
Transport                      %           BS         100      141      206      302      422    580
                                           EES        100      126      172      247      347    509
                                           CBS        100      102      138      183      230    286
Note: BS - baseline scenario; EES - energy efficiency scenario; CBS - currency board scenario


                                                                                                        11
                                Aggregated Emission Projections


                 160000                                           Baseline scenario

                 150000
                             1988 level
                 140000

                 130000

                 120000
                                                                               Kyoto target
                 110000
GHG emissions - kt




                                                  Mitigtion scenario
                 100000
                                                         2008
                     90000
                                                                                        Year
                     80000

                     70000
                         1990       1995   2000   2005          2010       2015       2020




                                                                                               12
140000
                Gg                    CO2 Emissions inventory and projections
130000                                           1st and 2nd NC
120000

110000

100000

 90000

 80000

 70000

 60000

 50000
         1988

                 1990

                        1992

                               1994

                                        1996

                                               1998

                                                      2000

                                                             2002

                                                                    2004

                                                                           2006

                                                                                  2008

                                                                                         2010

                                                                                                  2012

                                                                                                         2014

                                                                                                                2016

                                                                                                                        2018

                                                                                                                               2020
                     Inventory                 Base 1                 Mittig.1                  Base 2                 Mittig.2
                                                                                                                                      13
                         CO2 Emission Inventory and Projection

90000
               Gg


80000



70000



60000



50000
        1990



                1991



                        1992



                                  1993



                                         1994



                                                1995



                                                       1996



                                                                 1997



                                                                        1998



                                                                                   1999



                                                                                           2000
  Base 1               Mittig.1          Base 2         Mittig.2               Inventory

                                                                                                  14
                           Key issues
to be addressed before developing the III-rd National Communication


         1. Political issues:
          is there a change in the governmental policy towards the
           national commitments under the UNFCCC&KP?
          are there changes in the governmental and other institutions
           involved in the field of climate change?
          are there new governmental and other institutions established
           to meet the requirements of the UNFCCC&KP?
          are there personal changes of managing staff and experts
           (decision-makers), dealing with the issue?
          what will be the official sources of information for the 3-rd NC
           regarding the national policy?
          who will approve the 3-rd NC before sending it to the UNFCCC
           Secretariat?
                                                                         15
2. Legislative/regulatory issues:
 is there a change in the national legislation related to the
  meeting of the commitments under the UNFCCC&KP ?
 is there a change in the legislative basis?
 are there new governmental documents adopted (programs,
  plans, etc.) regarding the climate change problem?
 where from the above information could be gathered?
 is there a legal document, governmental decisions or other
  official act needed with regard to the development of the 3-rd
  NC?




                                                                   16
3. Methodological issues:
 is there a change in the guidelines and methodology for
  development of the NC?
 is it possible to use available sources of information used
  before?
 what other information sources could be used?
 in what way the information will be checked and verified?
 are there unsolved problems regarding information
  confidentiality?
 what are the main recommendations of the In-depth Review
  Team on NC-2, to be taken into consideration when
  developing the III-rd NC?

                                                                17
4. Technical issues:
 what methods will be used for correspondence with the sources of
  information?
 is the capacity of the team selected to develop the 3-rd NC
  enough to cope with the new requirements?
 is there a need for new experts and what new experts to be
  included?
 is training of the team needed?
 is there sufficient hardware and software support for the
  development of the 3rd NC?
5. Financial issues:
    what funding is necessary for the 3rd NC?
    are they available and who provides the funds?
    would be additional financing needed in the course of the
     development of the 3rd NC and who can supply it?

                                                                 18
            Third National Communication

   The methodology and approach are the same as in the First and
    Second Communications
   Additional objectives were set to the projections:
     • to identify the status and effect of implementation of the NCCAP
       P&M at governmental, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households
       level
     • to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet Kyoto obligations
       under current assumptions and projections
     • to identify whether enough capacity is available to meet the
       requirements of the UNFCCC guidelines
     • to identify necessity of JI projects to meet the target and potential
       for ET
     • to identify P&M (under implementation or planned for
       implementation) that would provoke GHG emission increase           19
                         Institutional setting
   The Ministry of Environment and Water continues to be responsible for the
    climate change related activities. The NCs and GHG inventories used to be
    approved by the Highest Expert Council to the Ministry

   A Climate Change Interministerial Commission at the level of deputy
    ministers was established by the Government after the approval of the
    NCCAP (no activities undertaken yet). It has the authority to approve the
    3rd NC

   Energoproekt continues to be a coordinator of the Climate Change study,
    research and development of National Communications, Inventories,
    Projections and Policies&Measures. An interdisciplinary team of 60 to 80
    experts was involved in climate change related activities over the period
    1994-1998


                                                                                20
Organizations involved in the preparation of the 1st and 2nd NCs


   Ministries and State                  Research organizations:
    Committees:                            • Energoproekt
     •   Environment and Water             • Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
     •   Energy and Energy Resources         Institutes:
     •   Energy Efficiency                 – Hydrology and Meteorology
     •   Industry                          – Forest Research
     •   Finance                           – Nuclear Research and Nuclear
     •   Agriculture and Forestry            Energy
     •   Transportation                    – Economics
     •   Regional Development              • Academy of Agriculture
     •   Justice
     •   Education and Science
                                          NGO s
                                          Private Experts

   The 1st and 2nd NCs and NCCAP were developed in the frame of of the
    USCSP. Bulgaria has received methodological and financial support.
   USCSP support for Bulgaria was closed in March 1999.                     21
         Financing of the preparation of the Third National
                          Communication

   Energoproekt has received financial support to prepare the 1st and 2nd
    NCs and the NCCAP from the US DoE in the frame of the USCSP.
   Starting from December 1999 Energoproekt is receiving financial support
    for the climate change activities from the National Environmental Fund at
    contractual basis. The financing that Energoproekt will get from the fund
    is as follows:

     • Processing of 1999 Inventory - 610 US $
     • Preparation of the Third National Communication - 3 100 US $

     Practically these activities are performed in Energoproekt at a voluntary basis.
     No other research institutes and/or private experts are involved due to the
     lack of financing
                                                                                 22
Conclusions


    The chapters on the P&M and Projections
    form the core of the NCs.
    These chapters reflect in the best way the concern with the
    climate change related activities in the countries,
    the measures undertaken and the professional
    level of the experts involved in the field.




                                                                  23
    Conclusions


   Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the major source of
    uncertainty of emission projections.
   A single macroeconomic scenario is acceptable for the
    short and mid-term projections.
   The GHG inventory approach to the emission calculations in the projections is
    the best way to achieve comparability across inventory results and
    projected emissions.
   P&M implementation should be reflected in the projections as
    a change in activity data and emission factors.
   Financing is the critical issue for a high quality and timely development
    of the III-rd NC of Bulgaria.


                                                                              24

				
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