ON PREPARATION OF NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS
FROM ANNEX I PARTIES
Bulgaria GHG Emission Projections - Methodology and
Dr. Christo Christov, Teodor Ivanov
Energoproekt, Sofia Ministry of Environment and Water
e-mail: email@example.com IvanovT@moew.dovrn.bg
tel: ++359 2 68 80 34 ++359 2 981 44 12
28 February - 2 March 2001
Energoproekt - coordinator of Climate Change study,
research and development of National Communications,
Inventories, Projections and Policies&Measures
Company was established in 1948
Study and design of power projects
Energy and power system study and research,
electric system expansion planning,
mid and long-term energy planning,
environmental impact of power projects,
hydro, thermal and nuclear power plants, transmission lines,
substation, urban and rural networks design and supervision.
Bulgaria and UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change
Bulgaria signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change in
Rio. The country ratified the Convention in March 1995 thus
taking the commitment to keep its GHG emissions below those in
the base year.
Pursuant to article 4 (paragraph 6) of the UNFCCC, Bulgaria used
its right to choose as a base year a year different from the
commonly accepted 1990, and adopted 1988 as a base year under
COP 3 Kyoto - the reduction target for Bulgaria during the first
commitment period is 92 (i.e. 8% reduction). Such a reduction
requires timely development of mitigation measures and their
implementation at different levels - households, region, state.
Bulgaria as one of the countries with economies in transition undergoes
economic transformation, accompanied by the process of privatisation and
restructuring of the industry. The process of transformation brings industrial
production decline and related decrease of energy demand and CO 2 emissions
. Trend of GHG emissions – [CO equivalent emissions]
GHG 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
CO2 equivalent (Gg)
CO2 103 856 84 136 66 043 59 183 61 859 59 178 62 332 60 710 58 742 55 150
CH4 28 009 29 602 28 420 26 188 23 550 17 178 18 641 17 370 14 775 13 743
N2O 25 225 23 964 21 217 18 339 16 675 16 230 17 110 16 642 16 295 14 777
HFCs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 577
PFCs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69
SF6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 157 090 137 701 115 679 103 710 102 084 92 586 98 083 94 722 89 811 84 316
Trend - % 100 88 74 66 65 59 62 60 57 54
1988 = 100%
Under the existing social and economic circumstances in Bulgaria, the
guiding rule of the Bulgarian climate change policy is joining the
international efforts in the field to the level consistent with the
national economy and the potential for attracting foreign
investments to be used for GHG mitigation.
Mitigation policy and measures should be as cost-effective and
economically beneficial as possible.
First National Communication February 1996.
Second National Communication April 1998.
National Action Plan June 2000.
Third National Communication ??? November 2001.
First National Communication
Developing and analyzing:
Baseline emission scenario
Emission mitigation scenario
Mitigation policy and measures identification at macroeconomic, sectoral
and utility level
Effect of the policies and measures at sectorial and utility level
Macroeconomic econometric model of neokeynsianian monetary type on
macro and intersectoral level
Bottom-up energy demand model + expert judgements
ENPEP modules (ELECTRIC, BALANCE, IMPACT), IRP and DSM
Manager - EPRI
Baseline scenario - no major changes in the economic structure and
energy demand structure, moderate technology innovation process,
slow energy efficiency improvements (business-as-usual scenario)
Mitigation scenario - significant restructuring of economy, energy
demand pattern change, including natural gas supply to households,
use of renewable sources, intensive DSM in households and
industry, energy conservation policy
Projections on GDP and production volumes for sectors and
Socio-demographic projections (population, employment,
unemployment, number of households)
Energy Demand Forecast
Based on two macroeconomic alternatives (GDP growth and structure,
industrial production volumes, investment levels, import-export, etc.)
Bottom-up approach with expert judgements for the penetration of
Policies and Measures were developed at this stage.
Useful and final energy demand projections for energy and fuels -
electricity, heat, coal, natural gas, etc.for:
• industry (metallurgy, chemistry, building materials and other subsectors);
• transport ( by types: railways, automobiles, public, water, air and pipeline);
• public sector (households and services);
• energy sector (including oil extraction, oil processing and gas transportation, coal mining,
coke and briquettes production as subsectors).
Energy System Simulation
ELECTRIC and IRP Manager provide Power Sector least cost expansion plan
BALANCE provides projections on primary fuel quantities, fuel and energy flows
IMPACT provides projections on energy sector GHG emissions :
- by sectors and total (“bottom-up” approach)
- total/reference approach (“top-down” approach for CO2 emissions)
Non-energy emissions were not projected in the 1st NC.
Implemented emission calculation methodology follows the IPCC Guidelines for
GHG inventory, including structure and emission factors.
Policies&Measures - general survey of strategies, legislation and sectors status.
Effect is assessed at sector level
Second National Communication
The same methodology and approach as in the First Communication
Additional objectives were set to the projections:
• to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet its obligations
• to identify the most efficient policies and measures at
macroeconomic, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households level.
Single macroeconomic scenario was used, due to the understanding
that the introduced Currency Board would not allow for path of
economic development other than the planed one.
Non-energy emissions were projected based on the forecast for the
emission source categories.
Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the main source of the
emission projections uncertainty
Macroeconomic Alternatives - First and Second National
Communication - Macro-economic indicators
Indicator Unit Scenario 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Population thousand BS 8460 8417 8375 8333 8292 8250
people EES 8460 8417 8375 8333 8292 8250
CBS 8385 8040 8020 8000 7980 7960
GDP billion BGL BS 187.7 232.5 320.0 436.4 575.8 741.9
(prices ‘92) EES 187.7 211.3 276.3 376.7 507.3 713.6
CBS 205.6 194.2 257.6 337 423.8 520.6
Industry % BS 100 118 155 204 263 336
EES 100 105 134 182 248 345
CBS 100 93 131 167 207 253
Construction % BS 100 133 181 251 334 432
EES 100 106 136 183 244 338
CBS 100 86 114 149 188 231
Agriculture and Forestry % BS 100 129 174 232 300 379
EES 100 118 156 214 291 413
CBS 100 91 123 165 211 263
Transport % BS 100 141 206 302 422 580
EES 100 126 172 247 347 509
CBS 100 102 138 183 230 286
Note: BS - baseline scenario; EES - energy efficiency scenario; CBS - currency board scenario
Aggregated Emission Projections
160000 Baseline scenario
GHG emissions - kt
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gg CO2 Emissions inventory and projections
130000 1st and 2nd NC
Inventory Base 1 Mittig.1 Base 2 Mittig.2
CO2 Emission Inventory and Projection
Base 1 Mittig.1 Base 2 Mittig.2 Inventory
to be addressed before developing the III-rd National Communication
1. Political issues:
is there a change in the governmental policy towards the
national commitments under the UNFCCC&KP?
are there changes in the governmental and other institutions
involved in the field of climate change?
are there new governmental and other institutions established
to meet the requirements of the UNFCCC&KP?
are there personal changes of managing staff and experts
(decision-makers), dealing with the issue?
what will be the official sources of information for the 3-rd NC
regarding the national policy?
who will approve the 3-rd NC before sending it to the UNFCCC
2. Legislative/regulatory issues:
is there a change in the national legislation related to the
meeting of the commitments under the UNFCCC&KP ?
is there a change in the legislative basis?
are there new governmental documents adopted (programs,
plans, etc.) regarding the climate change problem?
where from the above information could be gathered?
is there a legal document, governmental decisions or other
official act needed with regard to the development of the 3-rd
3. Methodological issues:
is there a change in the guidelines and methodology for
development of the NC?
is it possible to use available sources of information used
what other information sources could be used?
in what way the information will be checked and verified?
are there unsolved problems regarding information
what are the main recommendations of the In-depth Review
Team on NC-2, to be taken into consideration when
developing the III-rd NC?
4. Technical issues:
what methods will be used for correspondence with the sources of
is the capacity of the team selected to develop the 3-rd NC
enough to cope with the new requirements?
is there a need for new experts and what new experts to be
is training of the team needed?
is there sufficient hardware and software support for the
development of the 3rd NC?
5. Financial issues:
what funding is necessary for the 3rd NC?
are they available and who provides the funds?
would be additional financing needed in the course of the
development of the 3rd NC and who can supply it?
Third National Communication
The methodology and approach are the same as in the First and
Additional objectives were set to the projections:
• to identify the status and effect of implementation of the NCCAP
P&M at governmental, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households
• to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet Kyoto obligations
under current assumptions and projections
• to identify whether enough capacity is available to meet the
requirements of the UNFCCC guidelines
• to identify necessity of JI projects to meet the target and potential
• to identify P&M (under implementation or planned for
implementation) that would provoke GHG emission increase 19
The Ministry of Environment and Water continues to be responsible for the
climate change related activities. The NCs and GHG inventories used to be
approved by the Highest Expert Council to the Ministry
A Climate Change Interministerial Commission at the level of deputy
ministers was established by the Government after the approval of the
NCCAP (no activities undertaken yet). It has the authority to approve the
Energoproekt continues to be a coordinator of the Climate Change study,
research and development of National Communications, Inventories,
Projections and Policies&Measures. An interdisciplinary team of 60 to 80
experts was involved in climate change related activities over the period
Organizations involved in the preparation of the 1st and 2nd NCs
Ministries and State Research organizations:
Committees: • Energoproekt
• Environment and Water • Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
• Energy and Energy Resources Institutes:
• Energy Efficiency – Hydrology and Meteorology
• Industry – Forest Research
• Finance – Nuclear Research and Nuclear
• Agriculture and Forestry Energy
• Transportation – Economics
• Regional Development • Academy of Agriculture
• Education and Science
The 1st and 2nd NCs and NCCAP were developed in the frame of of the
USCSP. Bulgaria has received methodological and financial support.
USCSP support for Bulgaria was closed in March 1999. 21
Financing of the preparation of the Third National
Energoproekt has received financial support to prepare the 1st and 2nd
NCs and the NCCAP from the US DoE in the frame of the USCSP.
Starting from December 1999 Energoproekt is receiving financial support
for the climate change activities from the National Environmental Fund at
contractual basis. The financing that Energoproekt will get from the fund
is as follows:
• Processing of 1999 Inventory - 610 US $
• Preparation of the Third National Communication - 3 100 US $
Practically these activities are performed in Energoproekt at a voluntary basis.
No other research institutes and/or private experts are involved due to the
lack of financing
The chapters on the P&M and Projections
form the core of the NCs.
These chapters reflect in the best way the concern with the
climate change related activities in the countries,
the measures undertaken and the professional
level of the experts involved in the field.
Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the major source of
uncertainty of emission projections.
A single macroeconomic scenario is acceptable for the
short and mid-term projections.
The GHG inventory approach to the emission calculations in the projections is
the best way to achieve comparability across inventory results and
P&M implementation should be reflected in the projections as
a change in activity data and emission factors.
Financing is the critical issue for a high quality and timely development
of the III-rd NC of Bulgaria.