The global skills crunch: a case of
dog eat dog?
Tom Karmel
The global skills crunch: a case of dog eat
dog?
Are we facing a demographic time bomb?
How are countries addressing skills needs
through higher education?
Can we meet the needs of the labour market
and emerging industries?
Outline of presentation
A confession
Four stylised facts
Evidence of skills shortages
Addressing skills shortages
Comment
Stylised fact 1
The ageing of the population between now
and 2040 is very significant
Per cent aged 20 to 64 years
20
08
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Projection a
20
22
20
24
Year
20
26
Projection b 20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
Projection c
20
36
20
Working age population (%)
38
Age distribution
2008 2040
Above 90 Above 90
81 - 90 81 - 90
71 - 80 71 - 80
61 - 70 61 - 70
51 - 60 51 - 60
Age
Age
41 - 50 41 - 50
31 - 40 31 - 40
21 - 30 21 - 30
11 - 20 11 - 20
10 and under 10 and under
-10 -5 0 5 10 -10 -5 0 5 10
Per cent of total population Per cent of total population
Male Female Male Female
Stylised fact 2
We are moving into a post-industrial services
economy
Managerial and professional employment
(%)
45
40
35
30
Per cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Stylised fact 3
We have been producing increasing numbers
of graduates
Persons with a post-school qualification
60
50
40
Per cent
30
20
10
0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
With bachelor degree or above With advanced diploma/diploma or below
Total w ith post-school qualification
Stylised fact 4
We observe considerable ‘skill deepening’
Employed persons with degree
1996 2001 2006
% % %
Managers and administrators 21.9 26.9 32.2
Professionals 56.2 62.0 66.6
Associate professionals 11.6 15.5 18.9
Tradespersons and related workers 1.5 2.0 2.6
Advanced clerical and service workers 6.9 9.4 12.7
Intermediate clerical, sales and service workers 7.0 8.7 11.3
Intermediate production and transport workers 1.9 2.4 3.3
Elementary clerical, sales and service workers 4.2 5.0 7.0
Labourers and related workers 2.1 2.5 3.6
Total employed 15.5 18.7 22.0
Evidence of skills shortages
skilled vacancies
relative earnings
the starting wages of new graduates
the proportion of qualified people in an
occupation
Skilled vacancy index
250
200
Skilled vacancy index
150
100
50
0
Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Year
Trade occupations Professional occupations
Full-time wage and salary earners, diplomas
and degrees, 2005
Relative to
Weekly $s Year 12
Science 1071 1.40
Information technology 1210 1.58
Engineering 978 1.28
Architecture and building 787 1.03
Agriculture 788 1.03
Health 1086 1.42
Education 1022 1.34
Management and commerce 1040 1.36
Society and culture, food,
hospitality and personal
services 1000 1.31
Creative arts 838 1.10
Starting salary for degree graduates aged
less than 25 years old in first full-time job
Index of growth of
Median Index of growth of male average
salary median salary weekly earnings
2007
($’000) 1977 to 2007 1977 to 2007
Dentistry 68.0 444.4 559.4
Engineering 50.0 495.0 559.4
Mathematics 46.0 484.8 559.4
Education 46.0 460.0 559.4
Law 45.0 789.5 559.4
Accounting 40.0 459.8 559.4
Social science 39.4 418.9 559.4
Humanities 38.0 408.6 559.4
Art and design 35.0 - 559.4
Pharmacy 34.0 485.0 559.4
Employed persons with degree
1996 2006
% %
Managers and administrators 21.9 32.2
Professionals 56.2 66.6
Associate professionals 11.6 18.9
Tradespersons and related workers 1.5 2.6
Advanced clerical and service workers 6.9 12.7
Intermediate clerical, sales and service workers 7.0 11.3
Intermediate production and transport workers 1.9 3.3
Elementary clerical, sales and service workers 4.2 7.0
Labourers and related workers 2.1 3.6
Total employed 15.5 22.0
Ways of meeting skills shortages
Labour force participation rate
100
90
80
Participation rate (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 or
24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 more
Age
Male Female
Not attending university (%)
Males Females
Highest achievement quartile 28.3 19.3
Second highest achievement 52.4 37.3
quartile
Overseas students (%)
Postgraduate by research 19.7
Postgraduate by coursework 50.1
Other postgraduate 12.9
Undergraduate 22.5
Total 26.5
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
5,000
0
Managers and
administrators
Professionals
Associate
professionals
Tradespersons
Advanced
clerical and
Permanent departures
service
Intermediate
clerical, sales
Settler arrivals and service
Intermediate
production and
transport
Elementary
Permanent migrants 2006-07
clerical, sales
and service
Labourers
Too Pollyannaish?
Projections of registered nurses
Final comments