Civil War in a Neighboring
Country
N-1
MILITARY SCENARIO
“STORM CLOUDS”
MAY 1999
• Russia and Belarus Express concerns over Poland’s formal
admission to NATO.
• Belarus on verge of civil war.
– President exploring unification with Russia.
– Opposition seeking to block this move.
– Economic and political plight desperate.
• Unconfirmed reports state that the Russian minority in Latvia is
involved in supporting pro-Russian political elements in Belarus.
N-2
“FIRST RAIN”
• Belarus President declares recent election results invalid
and calls for new elections
• Announces formal talks with Russia to include merger
• Opposition takes to the streets; army and security forces
gain upper hand quickly
• Small guerrilla campaign crushed
• Renegades flee to countryside
• In Latvia
– Right wing groups harbor fleeing rebels (opposition)
– Unconfirmed reports of Latvian Russian minority groups
behind Belarus government (demonstrations and propaganda)
– Some supply of arms to rebels in Belarus countryside from
Latvian territory
– Trickle of civilians illegally crossing from Belarus countryside
to flee fighting
N-3
“THE STORM”
• Opposition in Belarus demoralized and desperate
– Resort to terrorist-type attack into Belarus from Latvian
bases
– One such foray causes 52 deaths
• Belarus demands Latvia control its border
– Clean out opposition camps inside its borders
– Do so within 72 hours “or else”
– Confirm agreement in 24 hours
N-4
“LIGHTNING”
• Belarus regulars in hot pursuit of twelve rebels
cross border into Latvia
– Seven armored personnel carriers with Belarus troops cross
into Latvia – exchange fire
– Reconnaissance light aircraft violates airspace
• Belarus forces capture rebels and forcibly return
them to Belarus where they are executed
• Unconfirmed reports that two or three of those
taken were Latvians
• Above attack occurred before 24-hour deadline
demand of Belarus government had expired
N-5