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Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region

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					MED-CSP

MED-CSP Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region
WP0: Introduction

WP1: Sustainability Goals
WP2: Renewable Energy Technologies WP3: Renewable Energy Resources

WP4: Demand Side Analysis
WP5: Scenario & Market Strategies

WP6: Socio-Economic Impacts
WP7: Environmental Impacts

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Socio-Economic Impact of the MED-CSP Scenario

The scarcity of freshwater resources is challenging food independency and social stability of a growing population in MENA. Efficient production and use of freshwater is a vital issue in this region. The pressing need for sea water desalination leads to higher energy demand and to an unavoidable additional burden for the national economies. There is no sustainable solution for water security based on fossil or nuclear energy, and moreover, there is a growing conflict between domestic consumption and export of fossil fuels. At present, we experience increasing pressure on fossil fuel resources on a global scale, and a painful elevation of fuel prices. Renewable energies and in a first place concentrated solar thermal power offers a solution. Renewable energies can relieve the national economies from energy and water subsidies through: • • • • • lower cost of primary energy lower external costs of energy income from export of solar electricity income from export of saved fuels income from emission trading

In the coming decades, the MENA countries are facing an era of strong economic growth. In the long term, this process would place the MENA economies on equal eye level with Europe. However, the increasing scarcity of water and the elevated cost of fossil fuels will burden their economic development just in the critical phase of this period, possibly depriving them from their right to follow this path of economic equalization. At the end of the oil-age, the MENA countries must now shift to their more plentiful and long-lasting domestic energy sources: renewable energies. This process requires not more than adequate initial investment by the governments of the EU-MENA region. The benefits are numerous: The direct costs of energy production and the external (social) costs of the damages induced by power generation can be reduced. Additional national income can be generated by exporting not only saved fuels, but also renewable electricity to Europe. The availability of fossil fuels will be stretched over centuries and its consumption reduced to a level compatible with the environment. Oil wars will become obsolete. Future generations will still be able to use the valuable oil and gas resources while the MENA region will become wealthy and economically strong. The fact that renewable energies are much more evenly distributed than oil or gas reserves will lead to an eye-level approximation of the national economies of the EUMENA region. The economic gap between countries like Yemen and Spain will slowly disappear to the benefit of both. Arable land resources in MENA and world wide are disappearing at a speed of several hectares per minute. Concentrating solar multipurpose plants in the margins of the desert could generate solar electricity for domestic use and export, freshwater from seawater desalination and provide shade for agriculture and other human activities. Such plants could turn waste land into arable land and create labor opportunities in the agriculture and food sector. Tourism and other industries could follow. Desertification could be stopped. Using solar energy means manufacturing machines that use renewable energies. It means replacing minerals from the subsoil by capital goods. Renewable energies require a lot of labor on all industrial levels from base materials like steel, glass and concrete to civil engineering and high tech-applications. Increased industrial activities will create job opportunities and reduce the brain-drain from MENA to the industrial countries. Solar energy and saltwater are unlimited resources if used in a way compatible with environmental and socio-economical constraints. The economic figures of most renewable energies indicate clearly that within a manageable time span they will become much more cost effective than fossil fuels. Renewable energies are the least cost option for energy and water security in MENA. It is obvious that it does not make any sense to wait. This process must start immediately.

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Technology Learning Curves: CSP is not an Exception

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Cost Learning Curves of CSP Components
Specific CSP-Component Cost $/Unit
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Collector Field $/m² Storage $/kWh 2040 2050 2060

5 MW 50 – 100 MW 200 – 400 MW

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Specific Investment of Power Technologies
S p e c . In v e s t. $ /k W W in d P h o to v o lta ic s G e o th e rm a l B io m a s s C S P P la n ts W a v e / T id a l H yd ro p o w e r O il / G a s C oal 2000 1550 5500 11714 2500 3098 3000 1800 550 1150 2010 1280 2830 4530 2000 3388 2500 1800 540 1150 2020 950 1590 3249 1700 4662 2250 1800 530 1150 2030 930 1250 2791 1670 4332 2100 1800 520 1150 2040 920 1010 2700 1660 4185 2050 1800 510 1150 2050 900 910 2654 1650 4134 2000 1800 500 1150

10000 9000 8000

S p e c ific In v e s tm e n t [$ /k W ]

W in d 7000 6000
increased solar share

P h o to v o lta ic s G e o th e rm a l B io m a s s C S P P la n ts W a v e / T id a l H yd ro p o w e r O il / G a s Coal

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2010 2020 Year 2030 2040 2050

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Electricity Cost of Power Technologies (Example)
L E C N e w P la n ts c /k W h W in d P h o to vo lta ic s G e o th e rm a l B io m a s s C S P P la n ts W a ve / T id a l H yd ro p o w e r O il / G a s Coal 2000 6 .2 3 1 .9 1 9 .1 7 .6 7 .9 0 .0 2 .9 2010 5 .2 1 4 .7 7 .4 6 .2 7 .1 0 .0 3 .0 5 .8 4 .2 2020 3 .8 7 .4 5 .3 5 .4 5 .2 0 .0 3 .1 6 .2 4 .5 2030 3 .7 5 .8 4 .5 5 .3 4 .5 0 .0 3 .1 6 .7 4 .8 2040 3 .7 4 .6 4 .4 5 .2 4 .1 0 .0 3 .2 7 .2 5 .1 2050 3 .6 4 .2 4 .3 5 .2 4 .0 0 .0 3 .3 7 .8 5 .5

Discount Rate 5 % 2000-$

E gypt

5 .4 4 .0

30

E le ctricity C o st o f N e w P la n ts [c/kW h ]

P hotovoltaic s
25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2010 2020 Ye a r 2030 2040 2050

W ind W ave / Tidal B iomass Geothermal Hy dropower C S P P lants Oil / Gas C oal

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General Parameters used for the Scenario Calculations and Example for Typical Electricity Costs in the Starting Phase
M E D -C S P /D L R 2 0 0 4 / F u e l C o st (2 0 0 0 ) C ru d e O il H e a v y F u e l O il N a tu ra l G a s C oal 2 5 .0 184 4 .2 4 9 .0 $ /b b l $ /t $ /G J $ /t 1 5 .1 1 5 .1 1 5 .1 6 .0 $ /M W h $ /M W h $ /M W h $ /M W h P re s e n t /o iln e rg y.co m / F u e l C o st (2 0 0 4 ) 3 6 .0 270 6 .0 5 5 .0 $ /b b l $ /t $ /G J $ /t 2 1 .7 2 2 .1 2 1 .6 6 .8 $ /M W h $ /M W h $ /M W h $ /M W h

D is c o u n t R a te

5 .0 % ST C oal

re a l S T O il 0 .5 % 2 .5 % 5000 c /k W h 4 .5 6 .7 5 .3 7 .4 8 .2 6 .2 6 .4 8 .2 CC NG 0 .5 % 2 .5 % 5000 L ife /y 40 30 30 15 40 50 30 30 W in d 0 .5 % 1 .5 % 2000 CSP 0 .5 % 3 .0 % 8000 H yd ro 0 .5 % 3 .0 % 2600 G e o th e rm a l 0 .5 % 4 .0 % 7500 B io m a s s 0 .5 % 3 .5 % 3700

In s u ra n c e O&M F lh

0 .5 % 3 .5 % 5000 $ /k W

E ffic . F u e l E s c . 40% 40% 48% 37% 1 3 .5 % 35% 1 .0 % 1 .0 % 1 .0 % 1 .0 %

ST C oal S T O il CC NG W in d CSP H yd ro G e o th e rm a l B io m a s s

1150 850 550 1280 3100 1800 4350 2000

0 .0 %

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Cost of Electricity from Coal, Gas & Nuclear Energy

cost of CO2Sequestration

ct/kWh

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International Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

equiv. to 40 $/bbl

Crude Oils

Natural Gas

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Solar vs. Fossil Energy Costs during Market Introduction with Varying Return on Investment and Fuel Escalation 2020 2015 2050 Start: 2006
possible from today’s perspective IEA scenario

70

Fuel Cost in $/barrel

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 10 100

1000

10000

100000 1000000

Installed Capacity in MW and 1000 m³/d

fossil fuel cost: escalation rates from 0.4 to 1.2 %/y equivalent solar energy cost: return on investment from 6 to 12 %/y
Source: IEA MED-CSP

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Dollars per cubic meter

The present status of water pricing in the MENA Region /Saghir 2003/ a) Irrigation Sector

Dollars per cubic meter

b) Municipal Sector

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State of the Art of Seawater Desalination
Parameter Heat Electricity Steam Temperature kWh/m³ °C Cost Product Water Quality ppm

Unit

kWh/m³

$/m³

Multi-Stage-Flash Distillation Multi-Effect Distillation

25-80

3-5

90-120

0.7-1.8

< 50

25-80

1-2

55-120

0.3-1.5

< 50

Reverse Osmosis

-

3-10

-

0.3-1.5

300-500

Sources:

La Desalacion como alternativa al PHN, Gobierno de Aragon, 2001 Review of Water Resources and Desalination Technologies, Sandia 2003

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Cost of Water desalted by CSP in Cogeneration with MED for 4, 9 and 14% Rate of Return, Electricity Cost 4 ct/kWh

Cost of Water in $/m³

3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 2060
Cost of Irrigation Cost Range in Selected Remote Regions Cost Range of City Water in MENA 14 % Interest Rate

9 % Interest Rate
4 % Interest Rate

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Cost of Electricity by CSP in Cogeneration with MED for 4, 9 and 14% Rate of Return, Water Cost 0.50 $/m³

Electricity Cost in $/kWh

0.120
Peaking Load

0.100
14 % Interest Rate

0.080 0.060 0.040 0.020 0.000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year
Base Load 9 % Interest Rate 4 % Interest Rate

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Alternatives for Sustainable Energy and Water in MENA  Oil/Gas: High Cost Escalation Growing Domestic Needs will compete with Exports Climate vs. Cost (CO2-Sequestration adds 2 - 3 ct/kWh)  Coal: Less Cost Escalation than Oil & Gas MENA would shift from Energy Exporter to Energy Importer New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment Climate vs. Cost (CO2-Sequestration adds 2 - 3 ct/kWh)

 Nuclear: Despite of massive subsidies < 1 % Market Share MENA would shift from Energy Exporter to Energy Importer New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment Security vs. Cost (Nuclear Waste Disposal, etc. etc.)  Solar: Cost De-Escalation and High Growth Rates MENA will export Oil/Gas + Solar Power New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment Climate + Security + Low Cost

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Population density in persons/km² in the EU-MENA Region

Source: LandScan 2004

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Satellite View of the EU-MENA Region at Night

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Projection of a future Trans-Mediterranean Grid interconnecting the Best Sites for Renewable Energy Use in EU-MENA
Solar Wind

Hydro
Geothermal Biomass

EURO-MED possible further interconnections

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Population density in persons/km² in the Middle East

Source: LandScan 2004

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Population density in persons/km² in Maghreb and Southern Europe

Source: LandScan 2004


				
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