Preliminary Examination of Retention Rates of Full-Time Freshman Entering in Fall 2004
and 2005 by First Semester Grade Point Average
August 22, 2007
This white paper provides a preliminary overview of retention rates by first semester grade point
average of full-time entering freshmen at Central Connecticut State University. Initial findings
suggest that the success of entering full-time freshmen in their first semester is a significant
factor related to the probability that they will return for a second and third year. Full-time
freshmen entering in Fall 2004 had an overall one-year retention rate of 80%, but for the 23% of
the class who earned a first semester GPA below a 2.0, the one-year retention rate was 42% (see
Chart 1). For full-time freshmen entering in 2005, the overall retention rate was 76%, but for the
29% earning below a 2.0 first semester GPA, the one year retention rate was about 40% (see
Chart 2).
The overall two-year retention rate (to the junior year) for entering freshmen shows a similar
pattern. While the overall rate at which full-time freshmen entering CCSU in 2004 returned for a
third year at the University was 65.7%, the two-year retention rate for those who earned a GPA
below 2.0 in the first semester of their freshman year was just under 30%.
Chart 1. One-Year and Two-Year Retention Rates of the Fall 2004 First-
Time, Full-Time Freshman Cohort by First Semester GPA
100.0% 89.0% 89.2%
90.0% 87.6% 84.6%
One Year Retention Rate
80.2% 75.8%
80.0%
69.8% 82.5%
70.0% 65.7% 72.5% 75.6%
60.0% 67.1%
50.0% 52.4%
40.0% 28.9% 51.6%
30.0% 19.2%
20.0% 16.9%
10.0% 15.4%
0.0%
0
w
9
9
9
9
9
0
1.
.4
.9
.4
.9
.4
.0
a
dr
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
ow
00
50
00
50
00
50
i th
el
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
3.
W
B
23% of Freshman Class
First Semester GPA
Retained to Second Year Retained to Third Year
Overall One-Year Retention Rate Overall Two-Year Retention Rate
Data Sources: StufileF04, StufileF04ED, StufileF05, StufileF05ED, StufileF06
125 DAVIDSON HALL · 1615 STANLEY STREET · NEW BRITAIN, CT 06050 · TEL. (860) 832-1780 · FAX (860) 832-1781
HTTP://WWW.CCSU.EDU/PLANNING · EMAIL: HOSCHBRJ@CCSU.EDU
Chart 2. One Year Retention Rates of the Fall 2005 First-Time, Full-Time
Freshman Cohort by First Semester GPA
100.0% 88.3% 88.4%
90.0% 82.0% 84.6%
75.9%
One Year Retention Rate
80.0% 76.1%
70.0%
58.4%
60.0%
50.0%
36.3%
40.0%
30.0%
16.7%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0
w
9
9
9
9
9
0
1.
.4
.9
.4
.9
.4
.0
a
dr
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
ow
00
50
00
50
00
50
i th
el
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
3.
W
B
29% of Freshman Class
First Semester GPA
One Year Retention Rate FY 2005 Overall FY Cohort Retention Rate
Data Sources: StufileF05, StufileF05ED, StufileF06
Two important hypotheses may be advanced from this preliminary examination of retention rates
by first semester GPA:
1. The GPA entering full-time freshmen earn in their first semester appears to be predictive
of progression to the next year at CCSU; students with higher GPAs are more likely to
return for subsequent years.
2. As the proportion of students who earn a first semester GPA below 2.0 decreases, overall
retention rates may tend to increase, and vice versa.
To the extent that these hypotheses may be valid, the preliminary findings suggest that a focus on
student success as an intended outcome will have a positive effect on retention and graduation
rates as indicators of institutional effectiveness.
Additional and more in-depth research will be conducted in Fall 2007 to identify the extent to
which these hypotheses may be valid. It is important to add several caveats to this sort of
analysis, however. First, it is important to recognize that GPA reflects a complex intersection of
student motivation and adjustment with academic preparation and achievement; factors such as
physical and emotional health, drive to achieve, and their external environment influence
students’ academic performance as it is registered by their GPA. Second, the findings of this
analysis should not be misconstrued as a call to lower academic standards nor to award higher
grades to students who did not earn them. Rather findings point toward a goal of improving the
level of student learning so that fewer students perform below faculty expectations.
Preliminary Examination of Retention Rates of Full-Time Freshman Entering in Fall 2004 and 2005 by First Semester GPA Page 2