Persistence to Graduation for Transfer
and “Native” Students: A Case Study
John W. Miller, Ph.D.
President, Central Connecticut State University
Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.
Director of Institutional Research & Assessment, Central Connecticut State University
Abstract
With the expansion of the community colleges, issues surrounding access, persistence, transfer of credits
and graduation rates have grown. Some researchers find transfer students persist at a lower rate than
native students, while others say the difference between transfer and native student success is either
overstated or does not exist. This study examines graduation rates for transfer students with varying
amounts of credit at transfer versus their native peers. Findings indicate that transfers do not graduate at
the same rate as their equivalent counterparts. Numerous other results are presented and interpreted
including recommendations concerning needs of transfer students.
Methodology
While typical graduation and retention studies place students into cohorts by their semester of entry, this
study groups students by the number of collegiate credits they have earned regardless of the amount of
time they have attended the institution. In this study, first-time students and new transfer students who
entered Central Connecticut State University between 1991 and 2006 as full-time students in a fall
semester were placed into groupings by the number of credits earned in 15-credit ranges (0-15 credits, 16-
30 credits, 31-45 credits, etc.), and persistence and time to degree were measured. A total of 28,635
unduplicated students were included in the study, although since this methodology allows for the same
students to be counted in different groups in different years, 86,342 total observations were recorded.
Major Findings
Native students graduated at higher rates than transfer students after controlling for credits earned. The
total number of credits earned by students was observed to be the most significant predictor of graduation
in a logistic regression. Other significant predictors included first-semester GPA, number of credits
attempted each semester, and GPA in term of analysis. Use of the model improves the accuracy of
predicting graduation within six years of the term of analysis from 62% to 75%. Factors such as gender
and race/ethnicity were also observed to be significant, but their inclusion improved model accuracy by
0.1% or less.
Conclusions and Implications
At CCSU, and likely at other institutions as well, we need to recognize the lower success rate of our
transfer students by comparing their progress to their equivalent-credit counterparts. While recognizing
and respecting the experiences of transfer students, we must appreciate that they still need similar support
to full-time, first-time students modified for them (e.g. a first-year transfer experience course). Further,
more careful exploration of our transfer compacts to determine how to better pave the way for transition
is required. Finally, we must more deeply study our “counting” of credits as meeting requirements, used
as electives, or not counted at all to ensure maximum appropriate progress toward completion at time of
transfer.
This presentation is available online at http://www.ccsu.edu/oira/research.
Comparison of CCSU "Native" and Transfer Students by Credits Earned at Start of Fall Semester
(1991‐2006)
Graduation Rates of Students Who Enter as Full‐Time Students
Credits Earned at Beginning of Fall Semester
Yr. Of 16-30 31-45 45-60 61-75 76-90 91-105 106+
Entry* FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf
In 1 Year Pct Graduated 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 9% 46% 32% 72% 56%
91-'06 Basis Observations (N) 10,640 2,403 4,017 2,706 7,012 3,905 4,101 3,802 4,881 3,679 3,693 3,308 4,738 5,598
In 2 Years Pct Graduated 0% 1% 1% 3% 13% 11% 37% 27% 64% 46% 77% 64% 84% 75%
91-'05 Basis Observations (N) 9,858 2,217 3,648 2,503 6,481 3,595 3,671 3,481 4,408 3,390 3,286 3,025 4,160 5,160
In 3 Years Pct Graduated 11% 10% 25% 26% 54% 41% 66% 53% 78% 64% 83% 76% 87% 81%
91-'04 Basis Observations (N) 9,108 2,041 3,257 2,324 5,899 3,273 3,257 3,177 3,883 3,090 2,894 2,759 3,606 4,739
In 4 Years Pct Graduated 41% 31% 50% 44% 67% 54% 72% 61% 81% 70% 85% 79% 89% 83%
91-'03 Basis Observations (N) 8,389 1,854 2,899 2,092 5,254 2,994 2,855 2,888 3,410 2,805 2,506 2,517 3,105 4,312
In 5 Years Pct Graduated 52% 41% 56% 49% 71% 59% 74% 64% 83% 73% 86% 80% 90% 84%
91-'02 Basis Observations (N) 7,520 1,683 2,507 1,916 4,674 2,719 2,459 2,613 2,974 2,535 2,167 2,293 2,685 3,923
In 6 Years Pct Graduated 55% 44% 58% 53% 73% 62% 76% 66% 85% 75% 88% 82% 91% 85%
91-'01 Basis Observations (N) 6,765 1,513 2,128 1,721 4,096 2,464 2,106 2,346 2,552 2,314 1,839 2,059 2,260 3,522
Students are grouped by credits earned at the beginning of a fall semester, not by time of entry.
CCSU Native Students vs. All Transfer Students : Six-Year Graduation Probability of graduating from CCSU within 6 years of
from Time of Earning Designated Number of Credits
completing specific credits
100% Probability of graduating within 6
100%
Percent graduated
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
years
20% 20%
0%
0%
105
111
117
15
21
27
33
39
45
51
57
63
69
75
81
87
93
99
16-30 31-45 45-60 61-75 76-90 91-105 106+
Credits Completed as of the Beginning of the Fall Semester Credits completed at beginning of fall term
First-Time Full-Time Students Transfer Students Native Transfer
* Transfer students excluded in Fall 2001 because of switch to SCT Banner.
Milller, J. W. and Hosch, B. (2008). Persistence to Graduation for Transfer and "Native" Students. AIR Annual Forum, Seattle, WA.