Pakistan
Recent history and politics
By:
Jan-Mathieu Donnier (12.2005)
Historical summary
Geography
Capital:
Islamabad
(previously Karachi ’58)
Borders:
•China 523 km
•Afghanistan 2’430 km
•Iran 909 km
•India 2’912 km
•Coastline 1’046 km
Total: 7’820 km
Historical summary
Timeline 1/3
1st military regime Separatists victory
1st war over Kashmir by Ayub. at Bengali elections
47-48 2nd India-Pakistan war
over Kashmir
Partition Jinnah dies New constitution: 2nd military regime
sept. 48 Presidental powaAa! by Yahya
1947 1948 … 1958 1962 1965 1969 1970
Martial law.
Martial law.
Islamabad is created.
Soonafter canceled.
No winner.
Riots in East Pakistan.
Loss of US support.
Historical summary
Timeline 2/3
USSR invades Zia’s plane crashes
Bhutto access power
Afghanistan
(’77)
Bhutto is removed.
India-Pakistan
war Gal. Zia ul-Haq Pressler
seize power (’88) Amendment
1971 1972 … 1977 1979 1985 1988
New Constit’. US support.
Became
New economic Pak. support of
authoritarian.
Policy. Jihad in Afgh.
US ambassador and
Indian supports EP. Martial law. Top officers are dead.
Independance of Bengladesh. Promotion of Islam. No more US support.
E.P. = East Pakistan A-Bomb in Pakistan
Historical summary
Timeline 3/3
Bhutto is dismissed
Sharif elected
Elections: Sharif resign.
Nuke Test
Bhutto wins
1988 1990 1993 1996 1998
…
Sharif wins the
Bhutto takes
’97 elections.
…after Bhutto his position.
Choice between was fired.
Bhutto (daughter)
and Sharif
(Pjb+Pak.Musl.Leag).
Recent History
Politics
Political situation:
•Sharif feels more and more unsafe. Tries to oust Musharraf (M.).
•On october 12, 1999, Chief of Army Staff and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Committee, General Pervez Musharraf carries a military takeover. Constitution is
suspended, but martial law is NOT enforced, nor parties are banned, nor press is
censured. M. tries to seduce the International Community.
•12 may 2000: The Supreme Court gives executive and legislative power to M. His
regime is legitimated for the next 3 years. Then he’ll have to hold elections (=2002).
•On june 20, 2001 he proclaims himself «President» and extend his rights. Soon after
the Supreme Court (Shari’a Court) confirmed this appointment.
•Following 9/11 attacks, M. is under high pressure and has to stop supporting the
Talibans in Afghanistan.
Recent History
Politics
Political situation:
•Late 2001 and 2002 India concentrated troops along the Kashmir border, following
the terrorist attacks on its parliament. Peak: 1’000’000 soldiers (75% India, 25% Pak.)
•30 april 2002: A referendum confirms M as the president for 5 more years (=2007).
•Early 2004 M, internally, is at his lowest capability: His support for the US war in
Afghanistan cut him from his population and religious parties are threatening him
(politically and physically) = 14 december ’03: Assassination attempt by a 250kg
bomb, disposed on a bridge.
•2004: Dr. A.Q. Khan admits he sold nuclear technology and material to several
countries, including North Korea, Syria, Lybia and Iran. Soon after he is granted
pardon by M.
Pakistan Today
Population
Ethnical Groups:
Total population of about 150 millions.
•Punjabi (dominant group in the administration and the army)
•Sindhi
•Pashtun (Pathan)
•Baloch
•Muhajir (means “refugee”, fled from India, considered as the creators of Pakistan)
Religious division:
Pakistan also means «Land of the Pure ».
•Muslim 97%
•Sunni 77%
•Shiite 20%
•Christian, Hindu, and other 3%
Pakistan Today
Politics
Most influential groups:
•Military apparatus (mostly dominated by Punjabis).
•Ulémas (religious leaders).
•Landowners
•Various (merchants, regional activists, separatists).
Major allied powers:
•USA (Military and economic aid)
•China
•North Korea (in military technologies)
•United Arab Emirates (commercial ties)
Pakistan Today
Politics
Ongoing tensions:
•Balouchistan: South-western part of the country, struggling for independance.
•North-West Frontier Province: Tribal area. Incursions by the Pakistani army (helping
the US on its side of the border) led to armed «skirmishes»…
•Kashmir: Conflicts with India over this region is reluctant (47, 65, + tensions).
Pakistan Today
Military
Military apparatus in figures:
•Three branches: Army, Navy, Air Force.
•Military ruled the country more than 28 years out of 55 years of independance…
•Budget per year: $3.848 billion (2004), it equals 4.9% (2004) of the GDP.
•There are approximatively 620’000 military personnel.
•Experts estimate Pakistan is currently having 75 nuclear bombs. Exact yields are not
know but are suspected to range from 9kt to 20kt (officially 18kt to 40kt).
Pakistan Today
Conclusion
We can assume that Pakistan is a
•Young country.
•Holding a strategic position (large sea access, harbours, infrastructures…)
•Troubled by military implications in the political field.
•Strong enough to fight large-scale war.
•Possessing Strategic arsenal (and proliferating this technology).
•Divided country where identities are forcefully expressed.
•Mostly ruled by one ethnical group (Punjabis).
And therefore
•Never held a stable democracy.
•Is permanently threatened.
•Sees alliances as a way to stabilize its domestic situation and its status worldwide…
Regarding those aspects, the “War on Terror” is a chance not to be missed.
Thanks for your attention
Sources
•Class readings.
•http://www.pondichery.com/french/actualites/kashmir/
•http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/index.html
•http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pk.html
Presentation will be available on:
http://www.globalvision.ch/HEI