Mexico by ewghwehws

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									Mexico
      Mexico’s Key Institutions
• Before 1924:
  – Presidents came/left office
  – Not normal way
     • Ousted by elite, military coups, violence (assassinations)
• Four Constitutions since Independence
  – Little constitutionalism
  – Presidents:
     •   few limits on powers
     •   Construct personalistic dictatorships
     •   True of 3rd World Politics
     •   Make own rules
       Mexico’s Key Institutions
• Change?
  –   Est. 6 year terms
  –   Stability settle for the rest of the century
  –   Military answered to the PRI president
  –   Personality of the President
  –   Clientelistic System:
       •   major groups have been co-opted into cooperation
       •   Have a stake in the system
       •   Input in the government policy
       •   Peasants
             – Land reforms
       • Workers
             – Unions
       • Bureaucrats
             – jobs
     The Six-Year Presidency
• Combines head of state and chief of
  government
• 20th century more powerful the U.S. Pres.
  – PRI pres. had a PRI maj. in congress
  – 2000 election
     •   Fox: PAN
     •   Congress: PRI
     •   Made Fox less powerful
     •   1st taste of “divided government”
     The Six-Year Presidency
• PRI:
  – Succession was in hands of presidents
     • Not always a well-known person
  – Pres. And Past Pres. Would determine party
    nomination (called Dedazo)
  – Candidate never lost
     • Until 2000
     • Won 90% of votes
     • Would not look into corruption
  – No choice was absolutely predictable
  – Once in office departed from previous policies
         Mexico’s Legislature
• Bicameral Congress
  – Congreso de la Unio n
  – Less important the presidency
  – PRI would out supporters in congress
• Elections changes
  – 1986 Election Reform Law
• Mixed member system
  – Single member district seats
  – Plus additional seats based on each party’s share of
    the popular vote (proportional representation [PR])
            Mexico’s Legislature
• Upper House
  – Ca         mara de Senadores (Senate)
     •   128 seats
     •   6 year terms
     •   96 seats filled by single member districts
     •   32 by PR
• Lower House
  – Ca    mara Ferderal di Diputados (Federal
    Chamber of Deputies)
     •   500 seats
     •   3 year terms
     •   300 seats filled by district voting
     •   200 by PR in five regions
      Mexico’s Legislature:
      2005, PRI biggest party
      but no longer a majority
          Senate          Chamber of
                          Deputies
PRI       60 seats        222 seats


PAN       46 seats        151 seats


PRD       16 seats        95 seats
           Mexico’s Legislature
• 1997:
  – PRI lost its majority
  – PAN and PRD could out vote PRI
     •   From opposite ends of spectrum
     •   Agree only in their dislike
     •   PAN = Free market and curb on spending
     •   PRD is the exact opposite
  – Pan can do little in congress
     • Majority status = unlikely
     • Cooperation from PRI = very difficult
  – Deadlock doomed FOX
             Mexico’s
       Dominate-Party System
• “One-Plus” party system
  – Dominated by parties so big seldom lose
  – Other parties are legal
  – Dominate in media and civil service
  – Voters acknowledge big party may be corrupt
  – Voters like stability and prosperity
  – Dominate party does not deliver: losses hold
               Mexico’s
         Dominate-Party System
• PRI:
  – Founded by Calles in 1929
  – Revolutionary and socialist
  – Ca rdenas and A lvarez
     • Leftist- Anti United States View
     • Most moderate centrists
  – Calles and Ca rdenas
     • Designed with four sectors
     • Strong patronage network
     • Increase educated middle class sectors less important
  – Votes have shrunk
  – Still wins Central Mexico
  – Gubernatorial elections possible good showing In 2006
    elections
                Mexico’s
          Dominate-Party System
• PAN
  –   Founded 1939
  –   Opposition to Calles anticlericalism
  –   Felt martyred by PRI government
  –   Catholic and Business (1980)
       • Coexist but could pull apart
  – Best Showing in Northern Mexico
  – Vote for Fox was not a vote that they had become
    conservative Catholics
       • Vote against PRI
  – Not expected to win 2006 election
              Mexico’s
        Dominate-Party System
• PRD
  – Partido Revolucionario Democra tico
  – Founded 1989
  – 2005 won the governorship of the southern state of
    Guerrero
  – Cuauhte moc Ca rdenas may have won in 1988
    (PRI rigging)
     • Ca denas and a leftist part of PRI split from PRI
     • Split over Free-market policies
  – Little support= uphill struggle
  – Andre s Manuel Lo pez Obrador (ALMO) strongest
    candidate for president in 2006
             Mexico’s
       Dominate-Party System
• “Former dominant-party System”
  – PRI has weakened
  – Bilateral Opposition (left PRD; Right PAN)
  – PRI decline
    • Corruption
    • Growth of educated middle class
  – On way to multiparty or two-plus party
          Mexican Federalism
• 31 states and Federal Districts of Mexico City
  – Distrito Ferderal, DF (equivalent of our D.C.)
  – Each state has a governor, one time 6 year term
  – Unicameral legislature
• Concentrates power in the center (i.e. Soviet
  Union )
  – PRI hand picked state governors
• Most Presidents served as governors
• States get revenue from National Gov’t
  – i.e. food chain
      Mexican Political Culture
• Hard to comprehend b/c it is dysfunctional
  – Several cultures
     •   Indian passivity
     •   Spanish greed
     •   Catholic mysticism
     •   Populist nationalism
     •   European:
           – Anticlericalism, liberalism, anarchism, positivism, socialism
  – Mexico is regionally, socially, and culturally badly
    integrated
  – Political culture was brought over in waves
     • Never really “set in”
           Mexican Political Culture:
           Mexico’s Indian Heritage
• Indian
   – Found in remote villages
   – Food
   – Religions: blend of pre-Columbian religions and Spanish
     Catholicism
   – Use to blood sacrifice
   – Aztec+ early Mexican societies
      •   Strongly hierarchical
      •   Peasants taught to defer to social superiors
      •   Spanish took over use to subordinate behavior
      •   Forced labor of haciendas or silver mines
   – Spanish Conquerors were make
      • Mestizos: of mixed descent
      • Mestizaje (intermingling of Spanish and Indian) cultural and social
        thing
      Mexican Political Culture:
      Mexico’s Indian Heritage
• Latin Americans
   – Free of racial prejudice
   – Money and manners count more
       • Right language and culture
       • “Money Lightens”
       • Whites
             – University, entering a profession, making lots of money, living in a nice
               house
       • Mexicans (Indian descent)
             – High risk of infant death, malnutrition, poverty, and lowest paying jobs,
               unemployment
   – Historically better than US
       •   Nonwhites can rise to the top
       •   i.e.: Jua rez (Indian); Ca rdenas (mestizo)
       •   Economic and politics (most have been white)
       •   All Mexicans celebrate the country’s Indian heritage
          Mexican Political Culture:
            Imported Ideologies
• Continent is a reliquiario
   – A place for keeping saints, a piece of the true cross
   – Sale of Old ideologies
      •   Liberalism
      •   Positivism
      •   Socialism
      •   Rural socialism
      •   Anarchism
      •   Anticlericalism
      •   Fascism
      •   Communism
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• Liberalism
  – 19th century
  – Rejected monarch; open society to new
    forces
  – US- took naturally to philosophy of freedom;
    LA did not: encumbered by inherited social
    positions, big bureaucracies, state-owned
    industries
  – No middle class, no liberalism
  – Economic neoliberalism: building free markets
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• Positivism
  – Improve society through science
  – Brazil motto “Order and Progress”
  – Di az centi ficos typified the positivist spirit
  – Conflicted with liberalism
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• Socialism
  – Europe: worked they had a lot of industry
  – LA: had little industry
  – No working class = no socialism
  – Mexico invented and “coddled” unions to look
    like a working class
  – Some still see it as the Answer for Mexico
    • Poverty
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• Rural socialism
  – Reject industry; favors small farms
  – Returning to rural idyll of equality and
    sufficiency based on family farming
  – Zapata was its hero
  – Idealizes the past
  – Not enough land
  – Peasant farming = poverty
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• Anarchism
  – Primitive socialism
  – Argues end of national government = erase
    class differences
  – Several revolutions were influenced by
    anarchism
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• Anticlericalism
  – Founded by French writer Voltaire
  – Calles claimed church
     • had too much power
     • Favors the rich
     • Keeps Mexico Backwards
  – Did Catholic church really have that much
    power?
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• Fascism
  – Founded by Mussolini; copied by Hitler
  – Combines nationalism, corporatism, fake
    socialism
  – “Fascism with sugar”
  – Not sweet and welcomed Nazi War criminals
  – Ca rdenas hinted at national socialism
     Mexican Political Culture:
       Imported Ideologies
• Communism
 – Marxist socialism
 – Called for an end to continents drastic
   • Inequality
   • Poverty by the state taking over production
   • Ending US exploitatoin
 – Popular among intellectuals
      Mexican Political Culture:
        Imported Ideologies
• So addicted to ONE ideology
  – Fail to notice the rest of the world has
    discarded them
  – Communism has collapsed
     • Europe and Soviet Union
     • Meaningless in China
     • Alive in Cuba
        Patterns of Interaction
• Calles and Ca rdenas
  – Co-optation
  – Promised peasants and labor a “good deal”
  – Rural and workers unions
     • Became demanding
     • Government crushed them
• Professing socialism
  – Tolerated no competition from Communists
  – Mateos arrested communist; broke up strikes
• “Fakery” in PRI
  – Served themselves
       Patterns of Interaction
• Tried to co-opt students
  – Nearly a free education
  – Employed them as civil servants
  – Cannot work forever; lack of money
  – Students #’s and discontent grew
  – Accused PRI of abandoning it commitments to
    social justice
       Patterns of Interaction
• President Gustavo Di az Ordaz
  – Obsessed with order/tolerated no criticism
  – 1968 Mexico City Olympics
    • Feared student protest
    • Mar his picture of a modern/happy Mexico
  – October at the Plaza of the Three Cultures
    • Police gunned down 400 student protesters
  – What PRI could not co-opt they crushed
  – Turning point in PRI rule
    • The point at which it visibly began to destabilize
             Politics inside PRI
• Two major factions;
  – Poli      ticos (politicians)
     •   Populist seeking elected office
     •   Pay attention mass needs and demands
     •   Pay little attention to economic needs
     •   Run up huge deficits (leads to inflation)
     •   Di az (64-70), Echevarrri a (70-76) Lo pez
         Portillo (76-82) depended on oil
            Politics inside PRI
• Two Factions:
  – te cnicos (technicians) to the world
    Technocrats
    •   Tried to fix the economy
    •   Worry less about mass demands
    •   Free market
    •   Fewer government controls
    •   Neoliberalism
                 Politics inside PRI
• Hurtado (82-88) and Gortari (88-94)
   – Presidents
   – Tried to stabilize the fiscal chaos by overspending
   – Fiscal technicians
       •   PRI implemented free markets
       •   Reforms PAN also sought
       •   Provided insufficient regulation
       •   “freed” banks made bad and crooked loans
       •   Financial sector crashed in 1995
       •   Peso lost its value
       •   GDP declined by 6.2%
       •   Mexicans grew poorer
   – The Problem
       •   Not education
       •   Part-way economic reforms that provide freedom without rule of law
       •   Expansion = crashes
       •   Fox could accomplish very little
          Mexican Catholicism
• Sleeper in Mexican Politics
  – Roman Catholic Church
  – 90% Mexicans are Catholics
  – Spirit since revolution has been secular
  – 1910-1920 Revolution….saw the church as upper-
    class conservatism
  – 1917 Constitution: imposed limits
      • Land, educational institutions, and religious orders
      • Found secret convents and closed them
      • Priests travel in ordinary clothing w/o collar
  – 20th Century the Church was put on the Defensive
        Mexican Catholicism
• Church never gave up
  – Catholic teachings
  – Lay organizations
  – Schools
  – University
  – 1939 founding of PAN
  – Set the stage for the return of the Church
  – Modern business-oriented future
           Crime and Politics
• Most powerful interest group: Crime
• Politics: the means of influencing the state
• Crime: the means of avoiding the state
• Each side understands each other
• Politics needs money/pay little attention from
  where it comes
• Crime needs protection of politics to continue it
  enterprises
• Weak State politics turns violent
• Crime with little fear of the state, ignores their
  powers
          Crime and Politics
• Pancho Villa
  – Blended banditry and revolution
• Madero (1914)
  – Assassination of top leaders was common
    • Still exist: nosy journalists, zealous prosecutors,
      and aides to Ca rdenas
              Crime and Politics
• 1994 killings
   – Paved way for Fox’s victory in 2000
   – Luis Donaldo Colosio
      • PRI candidate to succeed Salinas
      • Killed with a shot to the head in Tijuana
      • Shooter was apprehended, but not the one who ordered the hit
   – Jose   Ruiz Massieu
      • PRI Party secretary General
      • Shot dead
      • Salinas brother was charged with the hit/ serving 50 years
   – Salinas ends his term in disgrace /exiled in Ireland
   – Massieu brother was assigned to investigate but resigned
      • Accused PRI bosses of complicity and coverup
            Crime and Politics
• Good:
  – Two new trends:
     • PRI was stinking more and more
     • Mexicans were sufficiently educated and sophisticated to see
       the system for what it was
  – System of control and co-optation that could work
    amid ignorance and poverty could not work amid a
    substantial middle class
• 2000 marked ir first turnover in the power
  another could mark a stable Mexican democracy
   What Mexicans Quarrel About:
       Population and Jobs
• Population Explosion
  – 1934: 16 million
  – 1960: 34 Million
    • Growth rate 2.8%
    • 1.2% a year
  – Power of the economy can sovle the
    population explosion
    • Middle class naturally = smaller families
    • Mexican rate is down due to emigration
    • US rate is up die to immigration
   What Mexicans Quarrel About:
       Population and Jobs
• Quarrel about how to make jobs for the millions
  of unemployed and underemployed
• Institutions and economy cannot keep up with
  population growth
• Zapatista dream:
  – Redistribution of land
     • Will not work b/c not enough land to distribute
• State-owned industry
  – Grow slowly and employ few
  – PEMEX
     • Generates lots of money
     • Not a lot of jobs
 What Mexicans Quarrel About:
     Population and Jobs
• 4% of Mexicans own Mexico’s wealth
• 40% live below the poverty line
• No jobs and no land
   – Mexicans flocked to cities
   – Shanty towns
   – Sell small items or stolen items
• 22 million Mexican’s work for the “informal economy”
   – Black market
   – Pay no taxes
   – Contribute to the growing deficit
• Mexico City
   – Over 10 million strong
   – One of the largest cities in the world
   – Worlds worst air pollution
 What Mexicans Quarrel About:
     Population and Jobs
• Interior South Mexico
  – Extreme poverty
  – Zapatista rebellion started in 1994
     • Leader: “Subcomandante Marcos”
       – Interviewed with face covered
       – Speaks eloquently
       – Accurate about Mexico’s history of exploitation and
         poverty
       – PRI’s betrayal of its promises to “uplift” the poor
       – Embodies the romanticism of the Revolution
 What Mexicans Quarrel About:
     Population and Jobs
• Distribution of income
  – Mexicans go hungry
  – Many do not earn the minimum wage ($4.50 a day)
  – No money to save
     • Insufficient capital for investment and growth
  – Middle class people save
     • Generate capital for investments
  – Poor:
     •   Trouble acquiring skills
     •   Schools are inadequate in rural Mexico and shantytowns
     •   High crime rates = little foreign investment
     •   Poverty leads to more poverty
  – Escape: sneaking into the United States
 What Mexicans Quarrel About:
     Population and Jobs
• “Cures”
  – PRD
     • Populists, leftists, trade unionist, nationalists
     • Want to keep or restore state-owned industry
     • Privatization of Pemex is deemed a sellout
  – Mexico’s constitution prohibits any private ownership
    (foreign or domestic)
  – Lack of investment and shortages
  – US trained economists
     • State-owned industry are stagnant, inefficient, corrupt, and
       employ too few
     • People are Panistas or PRI te nicos
     • Recent presidents have liberalized the economy (Fox wanted
       to go further)
 What Mexicans Quarrel About:
     Population and Jobs
• Oil
   – Skews development away from
        •   Long-term and balanced growth
        •   Employs few
        •   Concentrates wealth
        •   Makes country dependent on rise and fall of oil prices
   – 1970 new fields were found in the south
        • Echeverri a and Lope z spent like crazy
        • Felt rich
        • Inflation and 1995 crash of the peso ended that thought
   – Squander new oil reserves
        • To present the illusion of wealth
   – “Oil is kind of a drug that induces illusions of grandeur”
 What Mexicans Quarrel About:
     Population and Jobs
• If PEMEX was privatized
  – Mark the coming of Mexican economic
    maturity
  – The “gringos”
    • Want your oil
    • Will pay for it
    • Will bring new technological inprovements
       The NAFTA Question
• Globalization
  – Does it really exist?
  – Does it uplift the poor countries?
• Cross out globalization and put “China
  trade”
• Latin America plays a minor role
  – Stagnant economic growth
  – Proof it does not work in LA
  – Strict class structure
        The NAFTA Question
• Gap between rich and poor is increasing
• Inequality grows as economy modernizes
• Economy grows = middle class
  – Inequality will dwindle
• So far has created few miracles in LA
       The NAFTA Question
• Hailed and feared
• US thought “vast sucking sound” as jobs
  were outsourced to Mexico
• Mexico feared US would dominate their
  country
• Most optimist foresaw economic grwoth
  for all
          The NAFTA Question
• So what happened???
  – Nothing
  – That is the problem
  – Fox saw less than a 1% increase in economic growth;
    loss of 2.1 million jobs
  – Could not compete with China
     •   Culture is flexible and adaptable
     •   Class structure is egalitarian (everyone has a chance to rise)
     •   Leadership is united in growth and foreign investments
     •   Labor cost are low, productivity is climbing
  – Mexico’s productivity has been declining
        The NAFTA Question
• Globalization never asked the question
  – What would happen if of free trade when one
    large producer has incredible advantages
    over all others?
  – How many low cost producers can the world
    take?
  – Will China’s productivity capacity snuff out all
    others?
  – “Poor Mexico, so close to the US, so far from
    China”
         The NAFTA Question
• Politics revolves around NAFTA
  – Left (including PRD) want to either scrap the whole
    thing or seriously modify it
  – PAN is for it
     • Fox with his Coca-Cola background
     • Fox celebrates globalization = answer to Mexico’s way out of
       Poverty
  – PRI negotiated and ratified NAFTA
     • Still have lingering doubts
  – Give it time and it will work
     • But how much time does Mexico have?
     • Two answers: immigration or drugs
              Drugs:
     A Mexican or US problem?
• Mexico
  – Grows some marijuana
  – They are the way station
  – Boarder with US makes smuggling easy
    • By air, tunnels, trucks, mules
    • Every kilo = 20 or more get through
  – Excess of supply over demand
               Drugs:
      A Mexican or US problem?
• Problem for both countries
  – Led to the penetration of crime into the highest levels
    of power
     • Police, justice system, and army
     • Corrupted by Drug money
     • Salinas had a brother in the drug trade
  – One characteristics of weak state
     • Penetration of Crime
     • Mexico Crime and Politics depend on each other
     • Drug money helps politicians = politicians help traffickers
               Drugs:
      A Mexican or US problem?
• Problem is the lucrative US drug market
  – Americans did not take illicit drugs
     • Wide layer of LA crime would disappear
  – Might pause long enough to consider the
    narcotraficantes murder hundreds and harm stability
    and growth of LA
  – Catching traffickers and checking boarder crossings
    has little impact
• Profits are so great many join the trade
• Where else can a poor man make so much
  money?
• “We have meet the enemy, and he is us.”
    Illegal or Undocumented?
• US = “illegal immigrants”
• Mexico = “undocumented workers”
• US-Mexico boarder
  – Only place you can walk from 3rd world to 1st world
• Few Mexicans worry about breaking the law
• Push/pull factor
  – Opportunity for a decent life
  – Many jobs in the southwest depend on Cheap labor.
     Illegal or Undocumented?
• It’s an American Problem
  – Humanitarian effort
     • Put out a comic book showing how to survive the dangers
       and deserts of crossing the boarder
     • Want US to accept more immigrants
         – Legal or temporary immigrants
         – Grant amnesty to illegals already here
     • Most Americans do not want a flood of “Spanish Speakers”
         – Clothing, manufacturing, meatpacking, and agriculture resist
           limit
     • Fox’s biggest defeats = not getting Bush to make legal
       Mexican immigration legal
    Illegal or Undocumented?
• 14 billion dollars is sent over each year
• Best thing we can do
  – Make it safe and legal!!!!
  – Work with Mexico
               Modern Mexico
• For most countries in LA
  – Mexico is the model for growth and prosperity
  – With the right policies it could become the “Latin
    Tiger”
• What is the right policy for growth?
  – Low wages and good productivity
  – Labor cost over time lag behind productivity growth
     • Produce more and better and earn a share of the world
       market
     • Labor cost overtime will rise
  – The Trick: keep productivity rising even faster
  – Example: postwar Japan and Germany
                 Modern Mexico
• How can you tell if a country’s labor cost are too
  high and productivity too low?
   – Note whether foreign or domestic invest there
   – If domestic businesses park their money overseas
     (flight capital) signs of a problem
      •   Too many regulations
      •   High taxes
      •   State takeovers
      •   Strike-happy unions
      •   Crime
      •   Corruption
   – Clean these up and you can have rapid growth

								
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