Public Opinion
The Role of Citizen Attitudes and Beliefs in
Democracy
This presentation is the property of Dr. Kevin Parsneau for use by him and his current students. No other person may
use or reprint without his permission.
• What is public opinion and what is its role in a
democracy?
• What is ideology and its role in a democracy?
• What are the major modern ideologies?
• What are the differences between American liberals
and American conservatives?
• Where do people get their ideologies and opinions?
Public Opinion
• Public Opinion: The aggregate of citizen preferences and
judgments about the decisions and policies of government
officials.
• Political Efficacy: the confidence that people have that
their opinions and actions influence the government.
• Ideology: a set of organized and coherent beliefs and
opinions usually related to politics, public policy and the
economy that form a general philosophy.
• Specific Issues
Responsiveness: the extent to which governmental policy matches the
preferred policies of the public.
Public Opinion
Representatives
Institutions
Policy
Responsiveness
• Responsiveness: the extent to which
governmental policy matches the preferred
policies of the public.
• Which public?
• democracy vs. republic
• Pluralism
• The case against responsiveness
Responsiveness, democracy and a republic
Some Major Modern Ideologies
• “Right-wing” Ideologies
– Conservatism:
– Fascism:
– Libertarianism:
Some Major Modern Ideologies
• “Left-wing” Ideologies
– Socialism:
– Communism:
– Anarchism:
Some Modern Ideologies
• Dominant American Ideology
– Liberalism: highest good of society is to promote the
ability of its members to develop their own capacities
to their full extent (property and amass wealth)
• Democracy
• Limited government
• Market-based “laissez faire” economies
• Suspicion of governmental power
• Liberties, rights and private property
• American Conservatism and American Liberalism
are both versions of Liberalism
American Liberalism vs. American Conservatism
1. Markets
2. Social/ Individual Problems
3. Government Activity
4. Equality
5. Rights vs. Order
6. Differences
Beware of Slippery Labels
Do Americans have ideologies?
• It’s demanding to be so sophisticated
• Information demands
• Attachments to parties
• Personal qualities
• Detached Issues/ Simplified issues
• Swing voters least informed and least motivated
• General agreement on larger issues
• Few appeals to ideology to attract voters
• Cues and Shortcuts
• Solution-orientation
• Political socialization: The process whereby
citizens develop values, attitudes, beliefs, and
opinions that enable them to support the
political system
Agents of political socialization
• Parents
• School
• College
• Media
• Historic Events
• Policies
• Social Class
• Race
• Gender
Polling and Measuring Public Opinion
• How do we measure public opinion?
• What is the difference between scientific polls
and unscientific polls?
• When and how can you trust polls?
• What should the role of polls be in a democracy?
Brief History of Polling
• Straw Polls
• Literary Digest Magazine
• George Gallup and Scientific Polling
Elements of a Poll
• Population and Sample
– Population—the people whose opinion you want
to draw conclusions about
– Sample—the people you contact.
• Pollsters want a sample that is as similar to
the population as possible.
Scientific Polling
• One of the simplest ways to draw an unbiased
sample as close to the population of inference
as possible is to use a simple random sample
(SRS).
• Simple Random Sample: a technique where
each member of the population has an equal
probability of becoming part of the sample.
• Straw Polls are not SRS because each person is
not equally as likely to be surveyed.
Elements of a Poll
• Sample Size and Accuracy
– Margin of Error (+/-)
– Larger samples reduce the margin of error
because there is less chance of a few
unrepresentative responses altering the overall
results.
– Larger samples are more expensive
McCain leads Obama
• A poll reports that McCain leads Obama 46%
to 43% (11% no preference), does that mean
that McCain is winning?
Elements of a Poll
• Sample Size and Accuracy
– Margin of Error (+/-)
– Larger samples reduce the margin of error
because there is less chance of a few
unrepresentative responses altering the overall
results.
– Larger samples are more expensive
– Most national polls survey approximately 800-
1200 people
Elements of a Poll
• Survey instrument
• Questions asked the respondents
• Professional pollsters try to ask questions that
will not lead or confuse respondents
When and how can you trust polls?
• Source
• Blurry Snapshots
• Push Polls
• Non-attitudes
Pros and Cons of Polling
• Good
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Pros and Cons of Polling
• Bad
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Pros and Cons of Polling
• Summary
Some thoughts
• Public opinion as the basis for democracy
• Not sure what it means…
• Has public and private purposes
• Informed people know how far to trust it
– Scientific polling and trusted sources
• For better or worse... it's inextricably part of
democracy