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					Energy Market Update (EMU)
 Tasmania- November 2003




   Office of Energy Planning and
           Conservation
Presentation Summary

 Why   EMU ?



 Key   areas of study

   Consumption   of energy (fuel use, industry use)

   Special   Study End use of energy in residential
    market
Why EMU ?
 Function   of information in business decision
  making

 Timely and efficient way of capturing
  information - aligned with OEPC projects

 Data   easily available

 Flexible   format suitable for
    Reporting
    Presentation
    Updating and future expansion
    Accessibility
Consumption of Energy


 Consumption    by fuel type and industry


A   focus on long term trends

    20   years of data from ABARE

 Isolation   of significant events

 Consideration    of market dynamics
Consumption of Fuel Types - Tasmania 2000-01

               Other     Black Coal
                9%          11%


                                       Wood,
                                      Woodwaste
                                        11%

                                           LPG 2%

                                          Petrol-
 Electricity                              leaded
    38%                                     5%

                       Automotive       Petrol-
                         diesel        unleaded
                          12%            12%
                                                    5
Energy Consumption x Industry - Tas 2000-01

                               Agriculture                   Mining
                 Residential
                                   2%                          4%
                    15%


       Commercial
          6%

                                                           Manufacturing
                                                                44%




        Transport
           24%
                                             Electricity
            Construction                     Generation
                  2%                             3%
                                                                           6
     Total Energy Consumption - Tas 1981-2001
     100


      95      Use of Fuel Oil to
              power Bell Bay
              during low dam
              storages
      90

                                           Decreased use in
                                           Manufacturing &
      85
PJ




                                           Mining


      80


      75


      70
           '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01   7
Larger Energy Users -Tas 1981-2001

     45


     40

                                                          Manufacturing
     35
                                                          Transport

     30                                                   Residential
PJ




     25


     20


     15


     10
          '82   '84   '86   '88   '90   '92   '94   '96   '98    '00      8
Smaller Energy Users -Tas 1981-2001

     9
                                                          Commercial
     8         High use of Fuel                           Mining
               Oil to power
                                                          Elect Generation
     7         Bell Bay during
               low dam                                    Agriculture
               storages                                   Construction
     6

     5
PJ




     4

     3

     2

     1

     0
         '82     '84    '86       '88   '90   '92   '94    '96     '98       '00   9
Consumption of Fuel Types - Tas 1981-2001

     40

     35

     30

     25                                                   Electricity
                                                          Transport Fuels
     20                                                   Wood, woodwaste
PJ




                                                          Black Coal
                                                          LPG
     15
                                                          Natural Gas

     10

      5

      0
          '82   '84   '86   '88   '90   '92   '94   '96      '98    '00
                                                                            10
    Fuel Types Used in Households-Tas 1981-2001


          60%

                                                               3. Hydro Heat
          50%                          2. Wood gains           recaptures share
                                       share from              from wood, heating
                                       electricity             oil
          40%
% Share




          30%        1. Decline in                     Wood, woodwaste
                     Heating Oil market
                                                       Electrcity
                     share to wood,
                     woodwaste                         Heating Oil
          20%
                                                       LPG
                                                       Natural Gas
          10%


          0%
                '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01   11
      Energy’s Role in Tasmania’s Economy 1981-2001

     140
                                                    Energy Index
     130
                                                    Economic Activity
     120
                                                    Employment Index
     110

     100

          90
Index Number




          80

          70

          60

          50

          40
               '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03   12
Electricity Consumption (% of Aust Consumption)


 40   37
             33
 35

 30                                                 1980-81
                   24 23
                                22                  2000-01
 25

                                                            Relative reduction in
 20
                                                            Tas Electricity
                           13
                                                            consumption
 15                                        11
                                       7          7            8
 10                                                     6            5

  5                                                                      1 1

  0
      NSW &       Victoria Queensland Western   South       Tasmania Northern
                                                                                    13
       ACT                           Australia Australia              Territory
            0.0
                  0.5
                        1.0
                                1.5
                                      2.0
NSW & ACT                      1.00                  2.5
                              0.93

   Victoria                   0.90
                              0.91

Queensland
                          0.82
                              1.16
                                      2000-01
                                                 1980-81




  Western                0.86
  Australia
                            1.10
   South
                         0.79
  Australia
                         0.79

  Tasmania                                                 2.64
                                                1.91
                                                                  Relative Energy Consumption Intensity




  Northern
                                   1.38
  Territory
                                 1.27
                                                                  (Electricity % share / Population % share)




  14
 Electricity Consumption Australia 1981-2001

      70000
                    NSW & ACT
GWh




                    Victoria
                    Queensland
      60000         Western Australia
                    South Australia
                    Tasmania
                    Northern Territory
      50000


      40000


      30000


      20000


      10000


          0
              '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01   15
 Gas Consumption Australia 1981-2001

     9000              Victoria
                       NSW & ACT
GL




                       South Australia
     8000              Western Australia
                       Queensland
                       Northern Territory
     7000              Tasmania

     6000

     5000

     4000

     3000

     2000

     1000

        0
            '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01   16
Consumption of Energy (Highlights)

 Dominance    of electricity as fuel source

 Manufacturing     major consumer

 Static   market
   strong    growth in commercial sector

 Interesting   residential market re wood use
 Strong    relation to key economic indicators
        in per capita consumption of electricity
 Decline
 in Tasmania vs Australia
SPECIAL STUDY
End Use of Energy in Residential Market
 Use   of customer survey methodology (ABS)

 Three   data periods 94,99,02

 Comparison   to like climate state = Victoria
 Focus   on key use areas electricity & gas
   Cooking
   Water   and Space Heating

 Other   findings
Energy Type Used for Residential Cooking 2002

                          94                           Electrcity
                   100

                    90                                 Gas

                    80
                                                       Wood & Other
                                             66
  %of Households




                    70                                        59
                    60

                    50                                              41
                                        32
                    40

                    30

                    20         5
                                    1              2
                    10                                                   1

                     0
                         Tasmania       Victoria             Australia       19
Energy Used for Residential Water Heating 2002


                           96                         Electrcity
                  100
                                                      Gas
                   90
                                                      Wood & Other
                   80
 %of Households




                                             65       Solar
                   70                                         59
                   60

                   50
                                        33                         36
                   40

                   30

                   20
                           1    2                 1                         4
                   10               1                 1                 1
                    0
                        Tasmania         Victoria             Australia         20
Energy Used for Residential Space Heating 2002

                                                         Electrcity
                  100
                                                         Gas
                   90
                                               74        Wood & Other
                   80
 %of Households




                                                         Oil
                   70

                   60
                        46       46
                   50                                                 43
                                                                 39
                   40

                   30
                                                    13                     17
                                          13
                   20        5
                   10
                                      3                  2                      1

                    0
                        Tasmania           Victoria              Australia          21
Factors Considered When Choosing Heating 2002


                        Cost
                  100
                        Environmental
                   90
                        Appearance              72
                   80                                              72
 %of Households




                        Incentive/recommended
                   70
                         57
                   60

                   50

                   40          25
                   30

                   20               10               12       11        11 8   9
                                         8                5
                   10

                    0
                          Tasmania               Victoria          Australia       22
Other Appliance Penetration Rates 2002


                                         95                   95        Washing Machine
                  100     97
                                                                        Clothes Dryer
                   90
                                                                        Separate freezer
                   80
 %of Households




                                                                        Airconditioner

                   70        60                                         Dishwasher
                                               55    53            55
                   60
                                                                           49
                   50

                   40
                        55          26
                   30                                    42
                                                36                 38
                   20          10                                           35
                   10

                    0
                        Tasmania              Victoria        Australia                    23
    Tasmanian Appliance Penetration Rates 94,99,02
.



                             9797
                                 97
                      100
                       90                                             1994
     %of Households




                       80                                             1999
                                                  64
                       70                           6260              2002
                                      55 5655
                       60
                       50
                       40
                                                                            26
                       30                                                 24
                                                                        19
                       20                                        10
                       10                                   23
                        0
                            Washing   Clothes   Separate   Aircon-     Dishwaher   24

                            Machine   Dryer     Freezer    ditioner
Tas Space Heating Fuel Penetration Rates 94,99,02


                  100
                  90
                  80                      Hydro Heat                          1994
 %of Households




                                          recaptures share
                  70                      primarily from       61             1999
                                          from wood.                56        2002
                  60                 46
                                                                         45
                  50
                               33
                  40      29
                  30
                  20
                                             5    6     5                        5 4
                  10                                                                       3

                   0
                        Electric Space      Gas Space        Wood Space        Other Space
                           Heating           Heating          Heating            Heating       25
Aust Air Conditioner Penetration Rates 94,99,02



                   100                                                                     91
                                             1994                                     84
                    90
                                             1999                 80             76
  %of Households




                    80
                                             2002
                    70                                          62
                                                           59
                    60                 53                        54
                    50      44    44                  45
                                 37               39 36
                    40   31
                           28
                    30                       25
                                            18
                    20
                                                                            10
                    10                                                 23
                     0
                         NSW      Vic       Qld       WA        SA     Tas        NT            26
End Use of Energy in Residential
Market (Highlights)
 Currentdominance of electricity cooking &
 water heating

 Strong   use of gas in mature Victorian market

 Unique   characteristics of Tasmanian market

 Rampantincreases in Air Con penetration causes
 problems for NEM
Presentation Summary

 Why   EMU ?

 Presentation    - Key areas of study

    Consumption   of energy (fuel use, industry use)

    Special   Study End use of energy in residential
    market
29
30
31
  Electricity Consumption and Population

     40

     35
                                              1980-81 Electrcity
     30
%                                             2000-01 Electrcity
Aust
Elect 25                                      1980-81 Population
.&
Pop 20
                                              2000-01 Population

     15

     10

      5

      0
           NSW &   Victoria Queensland Western     South      Tasmania   Northern
            ACT                       Australia   Australia              Territory   32
Natural Gas Consumption (% of Aust Consumption)


    60
                    51        WA
%                             becomes
    50                        leading
                              gas user
                                                     1980-81
                                             36
    40                                               2000-01

    30
                         26
                                                   23

    20    15 14
                                                        14
                                   8     8
    10                         3                                             2
                                                               0 0       0
     0
         NSW &    Victoria Queensland Western     South      Tasmania Northern
          ACT                          Australia Australia            Territory
                                                                                  33

				
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