Equity
Weekly
No. 02/12 01 12
The week ahead
This button links to the company event directly
Company events
Company Country Sector Event
Tuesday, 17/01/12 SBO AT Oil & Gas 4Q 2011, Prelim.
Wednesday, 18/01/12 austriamicrosystems AT Technology 4Q 2011, Prelim.
Thursday, 19/01/12 EVN AT Utilities AGM
Flughafen Wien AT Industrials Traffic Figures, December 2011
Krka SI Healthcare 4Q 2011, Prelim.
Friday, 20/01/12 Get Bank PL Financials Starts Trading on WSE
Exact Date Unknown MMK RU Basic Materials 4Q 2011, Trading Statement
(20/01 - 27/01/12)
Main macro data
Friday, 13/01/2012 PL Budget Level
RO Current Account
RU Exports, Imports, Trade Balance
UA Merchandise Trade Balance
14:00 PL Balance, Current Account, Exports, Imports, Money Supply - M3
14:30 US Imports Price Index, Trade Balance
15:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence
Monday, 16/01/2012 US Martin Luther King, Jr. Day - Public Holiday
PL Avg. Gross Wages, Employment
Tuesday, 17/01/2012 EC CPI
PL PPI, Sold Industrial Output
UA Retail Trade
8:00 EC EU 25 New Car Registrations
14:30 US Empire Manufacturing
Wednesday, 18/01/2012 11:00 EC Construction Output
13:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
14:30 US PPI
15:00 US Net Long-Term & Total Net TIC Flows
15:15 US Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
16:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Main macro data
Thursday, 19/01/2012 AT PPI
PL Core Inflation
RU Budget Level, Industrial Production, PPI
10:00 EC ECB Current Account, ECB Publishes Jan Monthly Report
11:00 PL CEE ZEW Indicator for January
14:30 US Building Permits, Continuing & Initial Jobless Claims, CPI, Housing Starts
15:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort & Economic Expectations
16:00 US Philadelphia Fed.
Friday, 20/01/2012 SK PPI
8:00 DE PPI
16:00 US Existing Home Sales
2
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Equity markets
ATX Belex
Daily Q/.ATX 29.09.2011 - 20.01.2012 (VIE) Weekly Q.BELEX15 11.09.2011 - 12.02.2012 (FFT)
EUR RSD
570
2.200
2.150 560
161,8% 2.140,14
2.100 550
2.050
540
2.000
1.947,92 530
1.950
1.900 520
38,2% 513,47
1.850
510
1.800
1.767,66
1.750 500
1.700 490 50,0% 486,28
1.650
480
1.600 1.587,41 38,2% 476,34
Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12
Last: 1,893.97 position: neutral Last: 487 position: neutral
It failed to cross through the Fibo but it found The Rectangle`s support could get broken through,
support close by the Moving-Average, therefore sell 484 -> 475 - 470, buy 496 -> 50. 12.01.2012,
another increase is not off odds, buy 2,000 -> 2,115, 08:42 CET
stop 1,830 -> 1,770. 12.01.2012, 08:36 CET
BET BUX
Daily Q.BETI 30.08.2011 - 01.02.2012 (BUH) Weekly Q.BUX 08.05.2011 - 04.03.2012 (BUD)
RON HUF
61,8% 19.250,16
19.200
4.798,04
4.800 18.800 38,2% 18.672,84
4.700 18.400
161,8% 4.610,76
4.600 18.000
100,0% 4.525,53 17.600
4.500 61,8% 4.472,85
17.200
4.400
61,8% 4.318,44 16.800
4.300
16.400
4.200
16.000
15.680,9
4.100 15.600
4.000 15.200 38,2% 15.089,3
Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12
Last: 4,378.45 position: neutral Last: 16,759 position: neutral
An increase within the triangular pattern would be Neutral Range between 18,000 - 16,000, but an
expectable, if it crossed through the RRL, buy 4,410 increase is expectable because of the bullish Flag on
-> 4,480 - 4,510, stop 4,200 -> 4,125. 12.01.2012, the daily chart, buy 17,180 -> 17,475 - 17,770, stop
08:48 CET 16,530 -> 16,000. 12.01.2012, 08:56 CET
CROBEX PX
Weekly Q.CRBEX10 19.06.2011 - 26.02.2012 (FFT) Weekly Q/.PX 17.07.2011 - 19.02.2012 (VIE)
HRK CZK
1.070 1.080
1.060
100,0% 1.053,08 1.050
1.050
1.040 1.020
1.030 61,8% 1.027,83
1.020 50,0% 1.020,03 990
38,2% 1.012,23
1.010
960
1.000
990 930 38,2% 930,2
980
900 50,0% 899,54
970
960 870 61,8% 868,88
950
100,0% 940,75
940 840
930
810
920
Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12
Last: 984.74 buy 1,000 target: 1,017 - 1,025 Last: 890 sell 880 target: 852
A breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle should Due to the bearish Engulfing a decrease to the RSL
trigger a buy-signal at 1,000 -> 1,017 - 1,025, stop is expectable, sell 880 -> 852, stop 915 -> 93.
960 -> 947. 12.01.2012, 09:01 CET 12.01.2012, 09:19 CET
RTSI WIG20
Weekly Q.IRTS 04.09.2011 - 05.02.2012 (MOS) Weekly Q/.WIG20 21.08.2011 - 19.02.2012 (WAR)
USD PLN
1.640 2.400
1.600 2.360
1.561,2
1.560
2.320
1.520
2.280 2.270,2
1.480
2.240
1.440
1.400 2.200
1.360 2.160
1.320 2.120
1.280 1.271,147
2.080
1.240
2.040
1.200
Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb12
Last: 1,455.34 position: neutral Last: 2,151.9 position: neutral
A consolidaiton is expectable in order to digest the Failure at the FRL indicates a re-test of the Triangle`s
latest increase, sell 1,395 -> 1,360 - 1,330, stop support, sell 2,080 -> 2,045 - 2,003, buy 2,220 ->
1,500 -> 1,535. 12.01.2012, 09:40 CET 2,26. 12.01.2012, 09:51 CET
3
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Market Statistics
Index Performance
12/01/12* 1W 1M 3M 12M ytd
ATX (AT) 1,932 -0.3% 8.2% 0.3% -32.6% -0.4%
BUX (HU) 17,055 2.9% -0.4% 0.2% -23.4% -0.5%
PX (CZ) 901 -2.9% 4.7% -2.6% -26.8% -2.5%
SBITOP (SI) 573 -3.6% -2.9% -7.6% -31.3% -2.8%
WIG20 (PL) 2,174 -0.4% 0.0% -3.9% -18.6% -0.9%
BELEX15 (RS) 487 -0.9% -2.1% -9.9% -25.9% -2.4%
BETI (RO) 4,389 1.1% 1.8% -2.1% -22.8% 1.2%
CROBEX (HR) 1,742 -1.5% -1.1% -2.9% -22.0% -0.3%
SOFIX (BG) 314 -2.1% 3.6% -6.9% -13.9% -2.6%
PFTS (UA) 549 0.5% -9.9% 6.6% -46.6% 2.8%
MICEX (RU) 1,482 2.4% 9.8% 8.6% -13.5% 5.7%
CECE 1,512 0.7% 2.3% -6.3% -29.1% -1.0%
CTX 1,354 -1.9% 4.9% -7.6% -32.9% -2.9%
HTX 2,615 7.7% -0.4% -2.1% -28.5% 2.5%
PTX 1,090 0.8% 1.9% -6.5% -27.9% -0.8%
ROTX 5,251 -0.9% 2.6% -7.1% -31.7% -0.4%
RDX 1,437 4.3% 16.0% 17.5% -16.0% 9.8%
SETX 821 -1.7% -0.9% -5.1% -27.9% -1.9%
CECE Ext 946 0.4% 1.9% -6.1% -28.9% -1.2%
* as of 13:00; Source: Reuters, Raiffeisen Centrobank
Index Forecasts
actual** Mar-12 Dec-12
ATX 1,894 1,700 2,200
BUX 16,760 16,000 20,000
WIG 20 2,131 2,000 2,450
PX 891 800 1,000
MICEX 1,465 1,310 1,650
BET 4,378 4,000 5,000
CROBEX10 985 900 1,100
BELEX 15 488 450 550
Source: Thomson Financial Datastream, Raiffeisen Centrobank
Market Data
Market Cap PE EPS growth in % Yield in %
in EUR bn 2011e 2012e 2011e 2012e 2011e 2012e
ATX 28.80 16.1 9.2 -19.7 74.2 3.4 4.6
BUX 13.07 8.3 7.7 0.7 7.1 4.1 5.1
WIG 20 64.42 7.7 8.9 33.3 -13.4 5.8 6.2
PX 39.06 10.5 9.6 -7.6 10.0 6.8 7.0
MICEX 482.00 5.2 5.5 45.6 -4.9 2.5 2.7
BET 8.42 9.3 8.3 8.6 12.8 4.6 4.8
CROBEX 10 3.75 8.0 6.8 12.4 19.2 6.1 6.3
BELEX 15 1.81 5.5 5.5 12.3 0.9 2.0 2.6
SASX-10 1.51 14.7 13.8 15.1 5.9 4.1 4.1
Source: Thomson Financial Datastream, IBES, Raiffeisen Centrobank, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Top/Flop AT & CE Top/Flop SEE Top/Flop CIS
Company Perf. (%) Price* Curr. Company Perf. (%) Price* Curr. Company Perf. (%) Price* Curr.
Gant (PL) 21.4 7.55 PLN Teraplast (RO) 23.8 0.29 RON Avtovaz (RU) 17.1 23.55 RUB
IDM (PL) 13.1 1.47 PLN Oltchim (RO) 13.5 1.25 RON AK Transneft (RU) 14.6 57,359 RUB
Duda (PL) 12.1 0.74 PLN SIF2 Moldova (RO) 11.5 1.22 RON Norilsk Nickel (RU) 9.7 17.02 USD
PBG (PL) 11.9 83.95 PLN Turbomecanica (RO) 8.2 0.05 RON NLMK (RU) 9.6 23.05 USD
CEDC (PL) 11.1 4.60 USD Condmag (RO) 7.6 0.18 RON MTS (RU) 8.9 16.27 USD
Getin (PL) -19.4 2.35 PLN Petrol AD (BG) -21.2 6.30 BGN Seventh Continent (RU) -24.8 111.5 RUB
Bioton (PL) -12.5 0.07 PLN Magma (HR) -11.6 3.13 HRK Uralkali (RU) -5.0 35.76 USD
Globe Trade Centre (PL) -10.8 8.21 PLN Luka Rijeka (HR) -7.6 105.0 HRK Ukrnafta (UA) -4.4 349.0 UAH
Krka (SI) -7.4 48.15 EUR Industralen (BG) -6.2 0.61 BGN Aeroflot (RU) -4.0 50.65 RUB
TVN (PL) -6.3 9.81 PLN Konzum (HR) -5.7 152.7 HRK Moscow Region D. (RU) -3.9 1.57 RUB
* as of 13:00; Source: Reuters, Raiffeisen Centrobank
**The indicated prices are the last prices as available at 6.30 AM (CET) on 12.01.12.
4
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Tuesday, 17/01/12
Recommendation: Hold SBO 4Q 2011, Prelim.
Current Price: EUR 67.72** in EUR mn FY 11e 4Q 11e 4Q 10 yoy 3Q 11 qoq
Price Target: EUR 67.00 Order intake 473.5 135.0 98.4 37.2% 130.5 3.4%
Order backlog 198.4 198.4 130.8 51.7% 167.4 18.5%
Reuters: SBOE.VI Sales 398.0 104.0 92.5 12.5% 99.5 4.5%
Bloomberg: SBO AV EBIT 86.5 24.1 19.1 26.7% 22.2 8.5%
EBIT margin 21.7% 23.2% 20.6% 22.3%
75 EBT 75.4 21.2 16.9 25.6% 19.5 9.0%
EBT margin 18.9% 20.4% 18.3% 19.6%
70
Net profit a.m. 51.0 14.1 9.9 42.4% 13.6 3.5%
65 Net profit a.m. margin 12.8% 13.5% 10.7% 13.7%
60
EPS basic 3.195 0.882 0.620 42.2% 0.853 3.4%
Source: SBO, Raiffeisen Centrobank estimates
55
50 n SBO is going to announce preliminary FY 11 results (sales and EBT figures) on January 17 -
45 final FY 11 figures are scheduled to be released on March 8.
40 n Having experienced no weakening of demand in the last quarter, we reckon with an order
35 intake in line / slightly above previous quarters‘ levels. The majority of the 3Q 11 backlog of
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN EUR 167 mn will hit sales during 1Q/2Q 12.
AUSTRIAN ATX PRIME
As
n usually, higher volumes at year end should support operating profitability through
Source: Thomson Financial Datastream
economies of scale - no major 4Q one-offs are expected.
n Drilling activities continue the upwards trend seen in the last couple of quarters, pushing
overall demand for downhole tools and high precision components. However, order patterns
from customers have not changed from replacement orders for worn out equipment to major
restocking yet, owing to customers‘ still tight working capital management as well as relatively
low SBO lead times.
back to index
Bernhard Selinger
Wednesday, 18/01/12
Recommendation: Buy austriamicrosystems 4Q 2011, Prelim.
Current Price: CHF 37.20** in EUR mn FY 11e 4Q 11e 4Q 10 yoy 3Q 11 qoq
Price Target: CHF 47.00 Sales 276.6 82.0 57.9 41.4% 81.7 0.4%
EBITDA 69.9 21.4 15.4 39.1% 21.3 0.5%
Reuters: AMS.S EBIT 43.0 14.2 9.5 49.7% 13.0 9.3%
Bloomberg: AMS SW EBT 39.7 12.8 9.2 39.4% 9.5 35.3%
Net profit 37.3 12.0 9.4 27.5% 9.5 26.0%
52 EPS 3.04 0.87 0.92 -5.7% 0.74 17.2%
50
EBITDA margin 25.3% 26.1% 26.5% 26.0%
48
EBIT margin 15.6% 17.4% 16.4% 16.0%
Source: austriamicrosystems, Raiffeisen Centrobank estimates
46
44
We expect a rather flat development of sales qoq due to a less expressed seasonality of
n
42
40
sales, particularly in the Communications segment since pre-Christmas orders have already
38 started in 3Q. On a yoy comparison the significant sales increase of more than 39% refers
36 vastly to the first time consolidation of the US subsidiary TAOS in 4Q, which was acquired in
34 1H 2011.
32
J F M A M J J A S O N D J n In the absence of acquisition related costs in 4Q we forecast a further improvement of the
AUSTRIAMICROSYSTEMS
SWISS MARKET
operating margin by 1%p qoq and an increase of absolute EBIT from EUR 13.0 mn to
Source: Thomson Financial Datastream EUR 14.2 mn qoq.
n Based on the better EBIT we forecast an increase of net profit from EUR 9.5 mn to EUR 12.0 mn
qoq.
back to index Daniel Damaska
**The indicated prices are the last prices as available at 6.30 AM (CET) on 12.01.12.
5
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Thursday, 19/01/12
Recommendation: U.R. (Hold) Krka 4Q 2011, Prelim.
Current Price: EUR 48.86** in EUR mn FY 11e 4Q 11e 4Q 10 yoy 3Q 11 qoq
Price Target: EUR 64.75 Sales 1,076.4 300.0 283.5 5.8% 239.3 25.4%
EBITDA 324.4 96.4 76.0 26.8% 67.9 42.0%
Reuters: KRKG.LJ EBIT 239.9 75.3 55.1 36.7% 45.7 64.8%
Bloomberg: KRKG SV EBT 230.1 72.8 54.1 34.6% 28.7 153.7%
Net profit 172.2 53.2 48.3 10.1% 23.0 131.3%
65 EPS 5.10 1.57 1.43 9.8% 0.68 130.9%
EBITDA margin 30.1% 32.1% 26.8% 28.4%
60
EBIT margin 22.3% 25.1% 19.4% 19.1%
Source: Krka, Raiffeisen Centrobank estimates
55
We expect an improvement of sales by roughly 6% to EUR 300 mn on a yoy comparison
n
50
mainly related to a further improvement of the contribution from the Western European
market, which we expect to grow in 4Q from EUR 54 to EUR 64 mn by 19% yoy, while we
45 forecast a rather flat development of the so far soaring Eastern European market yoy due to
the rather strong performance in 4Q 2010.
40
J F M A M J J A S O N D J n The EBIT margin is foreseen to increase by almost 6%p yoy, vastly related to a stable
KRKA
SLOVENIAN BLUE CHIP (SBI TOP) development of the gross profit margin of approx. 62% in 1-3Q 2011 compared to 58.5%
Source: Thomson Financial Datastream in 4Q 2010. Consequently, we expect the operating profit to increase from approx.
EUR 54 mn to EUR 73 mn by roughly 35% yoy.
n Based on the better operating profit on a yoy comparison we calculated a net profit estimate
of approx. EUR 53 mn, up by roughly 10% from the net profit in 4Q 2010, amounting to
approx. EUR 48 mn.
back to index Daniel Damaska
6
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Significant Changes
Cyfrowy Polsat We maintain our hold recommendation, but decrease our target price from PLN 16.6 to
PLN 14.6 due to a decrease in the TV advertising market, which harms TV Polsat’s revenues
and owing to the weaker PLN leads to an increase of operating costs in both the pay-TV
business and TV Polsat. We broadly maintain our FY estimates for 2011, but cut our 2012e
EBITDA projection by 7% to PLN 812 mn. Currently, Cyfrowy Polsat focuses on financial debt
repayment (net debt to EBITDA exceeding 3x after the acquisition of TV Polsat and given the
higher valuation of its euro-denominated bonds), which limits the potential dividend. On the
operating level the group is still fighting for new pay-TV clients trying to capture the highest
possible share of the market before it reaches the saturation point. Also efforts to acquire
Internet clients are costly at the initial stage (modem subsidies), implying limited growth of
EBITDA in the retail customers business next year. At the same time, the TV advertising market
seems to grow slower than we previously anticipated – we expect a rather flat TV market next
year and 1%p outperformance by Polsat still supported by the base effect of the increased
technical reach (however, only in 1H) and an expected further market share decline of the
public TV (except for June, when the Euro 2012 takes place).
After a weaker second quarter the pay-TV segment surprised positively with stronger than
expected growth of ARPU (partly strengthened by a pay-per-view sports event) accompanied
by rigorous cost control. The company was able to reduce salary costs in the pay-TV business
(positive impact of mPunkt sales network restructuring) as well as to cut other costs in pay-TV
(savings on infrastructure rental and network maintenance). As a result, the pay-TV segment
hit a record EBITDA level of PLN 142 mn. TV Polsat added PLN 54 mn to EBITDA, whereas
advertising and sponsoring revenues grew by only 1% yoy (versus a market drop of 1%).
We increased our EBITDA estimate for 2011 by 2% as a result of a stronger contribution from
pay-TV following the successful third quarter. However, we cut our EBITDA estimates for 2012-
2013 in both main segments. In the TV broadcasting we expect only 1% growth of advertising
and sponsoring revenues in 2012 (versus a flat TV market), while the margin may slightly
deteriorate on higher content costs (including FX-denominated). The weaker zloty should
support revenues of thematic channels earned from satellite and cable TV networks. We also
reckon with higher operating costs in the pay-TV segment due to a continuous weakness of the
Polish zloty. When comparing 2012 and 2011 figures please note that EBITDA of TV Polsat
not consolidated in Cyfrowy Polsat figures (January-April) amounted to PLN 87 mn.
EPS 2011e: from PLN 0.75 to PLN 0.41 DPS 2011e: unchanged at PLN 0.00
EPS 2012e: from PLN 1.13 to PLN 1.14 DPS 2012e: unchanged at PLN 0.00
EPS 2013e: from PLN 1.36 to PLN 1.20 DPS 2013e: from PLN 0. 45 to PLN 0.40
Dominik Niszcz
7
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Significant Changes
Kapsch TrafficCom We have implemented the cash flows from the recently acquired Russian order and its impact
on corporate earnings, which are boosted particularly for 2012/13e and 2013/14e based
on above-average margins expected for the set-up of the system. However, considering
that there was no competitive bid for the subject order in the tender phase, but that several
follow-up projects are in the pipeline, we reckon that the Russian market provides a
significant future growth potential for Kapsch TrafficCom. Additionally, a new market could
open up with Brazil, since the government intends to establish a countrywide, all-vehicle e-tolling
system based on both protocols, the next generation American 5.9 GHz and Europe´s existing
5.8 GHz, which favours Kapsch TrafficCom as it is the only provider of both standards in
this market segment currently, following the acquisition of the former US market leader Mark
IV IVHS in 2010. Summing-up, even after the impressive track record in public tenders in the
last 2 years the growth potential is far from fading, but rather expanding, since governments
and private tolling authorities seem to recognize the benefits of e-tolling and more frequently
pursue the implementation of such systems in the course of the roll-out or upgrade of the road
infrastructure as evidenced by the growing project pipeline.
We have left our sales and net profit estimate for 2011/12e unchanged amounting to
EUR 566 mn and EUR 45 mn, respectively, since the Russian order affects only the following
years. In this regard we have increased our sales estimate for 2012/13e from EUR 498 mn
to EUR 568 mn and our operating profit forecast by 18% to EUR 100 mn. Net profit a.m. for
2012/13e is boosted not only by the upgraded operating profit, but also by the proportional
share of the profit from the Russian joint venture with Mostotrest. All-in-all, we have increased
our net profit a.m. estimate by 20% to EUR 66 mn for 2012/13e.
We preferred to value the share of Kapsch TrafficCom via a DCF method due to a different
product focus and geographical sales composition of the peers and derived a fair value of
EUR 72.40 (EUR 68.00 previously). We have thereby implemented our modified estimates
and an unchanged WACC of 9.8% compared to our previous Company Update. Due to an
upside of almost 23% to the closing price as per January 10, 2012 of EUR 59.00 we reiterate
our buy recommendation.
EPS 2011/12e: from EUR 3.70 to EUR 3.58 DPS 2011/12e: from EUR 1.12 to EUR 1.05
EPS 2012/13e: from EUR 4.48 to EUR 5.04 DPS 2012/13e: from EUR 1.35 to EUR 1.52
EPS 2013/14e: from EUR 4.98 to EUR 5.30 DPS 2013/14e: from EUR 1.36 to EUR 1.60
Daniel Damaska
8
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Master List
Recommendations, Multiples
Price (FX) Ratings Price MCap. FF P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div. yield (%)
Country FX 11/01** Rec. from target EUR mn (%) 12e 13e 12e 13e 12e 13e 12e 13e
Basic Materials
Alumil Rom Industry RO RON 1.00 UR 11/04/11 UR 7 20% 8.0 6.3 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.5 9.5% 11.9%
AMAG* AT EUR 15.44 RS 14/07/11 RS 544 38% 6.9 6.6 0.8 0.8 3.0 2.6 3.4% 3.5%
Bogdanka PL PLN 108.60 B 09/09/11 151.00 828 61% 10.2 6.6 1.5 1.2 5.6 3.7 0.0% 0.0%
Ciech PL PLN 17.55 B 14/12/11 19.50 207 61% 11.2 9.3 0.7 0.6 4.1 3.9 0.0% 2.2%
Evraz RU GBp 396.4 B 15/12/11 443.0 6,279 23% 9.3 6.9 1.2 1.0 4.2 3.3 2.7% 3.7%
Ferrexpo* UA GBp 298.2 RS 30/03/11 RS 2,208 20% 7.2 6.7 1.6 1.4 4.9 4.5 2.5% 2.7%
JSW* PL PLN 90.50 RS 06/07/11 RS 2,418 33% 3.7 4.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 10.8% 8.4%
Kety PL PLN 99.70 B 28/10/11 126.00 206 100% 8.6 7.9 0.9 0.9 5.3 4.8 5.0% 5.0%
KGHM* PL PLN 115.00 RS 30/03/11 RS 5,156 68% 4.9 7.3 1.1 1.0 2.3 3.0 8.1% 5.5%
Lenzing AT EUR 63.85 B 12/12/11 95.00 1,648 36% 7.8 6.6 1.5 1.3 4.8 4.4 4.2% 6.1%
Mayr-Melnhof* AT EUR 67.90 H 21/07/11 UR 1,357 34% 10.3 9.8 1.2 1.1 3.9 3.4 3.2% 3.4%
Mechel RU USD 9.68 RS 31/05/11 RS 3,171 33% 3.9 2.7 0.7 0.5 3.7 3.0 6.0% 8.5%
MMK RU USD 5.36 H 14/12/11 6.14 3,618 13% 13.2 6.1 0.4 0.4 4.9 3.5 1.5% 4.1%
New World Resources CZ CZK 143.0 RS 16/02/11 RS 1,463 36% 3.6 3.5 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.5 12.3% 14.2%
NLMK RU USD 22.29 H 03/11/11 UR 10,514 13% 5.9 5.0 1.0 0.9 3.9 3.0 5.4% 6.0%
PhosAgro RU RUB 8,290 B 11/10/11 16,575 2,562 11% 4.0 4.6 1.4 1.2 2.4 2.4 7.5% 6.6%
Polymetal International RU GBp 1,154.0 B 15/11/11 1,319.0 5,373 50% 10.6 8.9 2.9 2.3 7.5 6.2 1.9% 2.2%
RHI*° AT EUR 16.00 RS 02/03/11 RS 637 53% 6.4 5.6 1.4 1.2 5.4 4.6 4.5% 5.5%
Severstal RU USD 12.85 B 06/09/11 UR 10,191 18% 4.8 4.3 1.1 1.0 3.2 2.8 5.6% 6.3%
Synthos PL PLN 4.28 H 25/11/11 4.50 1,270 38% 8.5 9.8 1.6 1.4 4.7 4.8 0.0% 0.0%
voestalpine AT EUR 23.80 H 30/11/11 23.50 4,007 64% 11.9 9.3 1.0 0.9 5.2 5.0 3.7% 4.4%
Mean (companies) 7.7 6.6 1.2 1.0 4.0 3.5 4.7% 5.2%
Median (companies) 7.8 6.6 1.1 1.0 4.1 3.4 4.2% 5.0%
Financials
Aik Banka RS RSD 1,530 B 30/11/11 2,800 148 80% 3.7 3.4 0.3 0.3 n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.0%
Banca Transilvania RO RON 0.895 B 30/11/11 1.18 365 82% 8.2 6.1 0.6 0.6 n.a. n.a. 0.0% 5.7%
Bank BGZ PL PLN 46.92 S 30/11/11 30.00 454 16% 15.3 14.1 0.7 0.7 n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.0%
Bank Millennium PL PLN 3.74 R 30/11/11 3.20 1,017 35% 9.7 9.7 1.0 0.9 n.a. n.a. 4.6% 5.2%
Bank Pekao SA PL PLN 139.10 B 30/11/11 163.00 8,179 41% 11.9 11.1 1.6 1.6 n.a. n.a. 6.3% 6.7%
BRD-GSG RO RON 10.90 H 30/11/11 11.80 1,744 41% 9.3 7.8 1.1 1.0 n.a. n.a. 4.2% 4.9%
BRE Bank PL PLN 243.00 H 30/11/11 272.00 2,293 30% 9.2 8.3 1.1 1.0 n.a. n.a. 2.2% 3.0%
BZ WBK PL PLN 225.00 H 30/11/11 238.00 3,680 30% 13.0 11.5 2.1 1.9 n.a. n.a. 3.9% 4.3%
Erste Group AT EUR 12.23 B 30/11/11 16.00 4,824 54% 6.0 4.6 0.4 0.4 n.a. n.a. 4.1% 4.9%
Komercijalna RS RSD 1,701 R 30/11/11 1,760 227 29% 7.5 7.7 0.5 0.5 n.a. n.a. 0.3% 0.3%
Komercni Banka CZ CZK 3,186.0 H 30/11/11 3,600.0 4,687 40% 9.7 9.0 1.4 1.4 n.a. n.a. 7.2% 7.8%
NKBM SI EUR 3.15 S 30/11/11 2.70 123 49% 14.1 7.6 0.2 0.2 n.a. n.a. 2.1% 3.9%
OTP HU HUF 3,150 B 30/11/11 4,265 2,701 69% 6.1 4.3 0.6 0.5 n.a. n.a. 4.4% 11.8%
PKO BP PL PLN 30.50 B 30/11/11 38.00 8,546 49% 9.1 8.6 1.5 1.4 n.a. n.a. 5.0% 5.2%
Raiffeisen Bank Intl. AT EUR 19.23 NR NR NR 2,974 37% 6.0 5.2 0.5 0.4 n.a. n.a. 3.6% 4.7%
UNIQA° AT EUR 9.85 NR NR NR 1,297 5% 10.6 10.2 1.2 1.1 n.a. n.a. 4.0% 4.0%
Vienna Insurance Group° AT EUR 30.50 B 17/10/11 36.50 3,904 30% 10.0 9.1 0.9 0.8 n.a. n.a. 3.8% 3.9%
Mean (companies) 9.4 8.1 0.9 0.9 n.a. n.a. 3.3% 4.5%
Median (companies) 9.3 8.3 0.9 0.8 n.a. n.a. 3.9% 4.7%
Industrials
Andritz AT EUR 67.75 B 10/08/11 72.00 3,508 70% 15.3 13.1 3.5 3.0 5.8 4.8 3.2% 4.1%
Flughafen Wien AT EUR 27.86 H 21/12/11 28.00 585 50% 11.3 11.9 0.7 0.7 6.8 5.7 4.3% 4.5%
Oesterreichische Post AT EUR 23.92 B 18/11/11 25.50 1,616 47% 12.1 14.1 2.2 2.2 4.8 5.3 7.1% 7.3%
Palfinger AT EUR 13.35 H 23/11/11 13.00 473 34% 14.1 9.9 1.3 1.2 7.4 5.8 2.3% 3.3%
Polytec AT EUR 5.93 B 03/11/11 10.50 132 57% 5.1 4.7 0.9 0.8 2.0 1.7 6.0% 6.8%
Rosenbauer AT EUR 36.16 B 19/12/11 48.00 246 44% 8.7 7.1 1.6 1.4 5.4 4.8 3.3% 3.3%
Semperit* AT EUR 29.60 B 24/06/11 UR 609 36% 11.0 9.8 1.5 1.4 4.4 3.9 5.4% 5.9%
Teraplast RO RON 0.299 H 18/08/11 0.46 20 45% 6.0 4.4 0.6 0.5 4.5 3.3 0.0% 0.0%
Mean (companies) 10.4 9.4 1.5 1.4 5.1 4.4 4.0% 4.4%
Median (companies) 11.1 9.9 1.4 1.3 5.1 4.8 3.8% 4.3%
Oil & Gas
Gazprom* RU RUB 178 RS 27/09/11 RS 101,418 43% 3.3 3.3 0.4 0.4 2.1 2.0 2.7% 2.7%
INA* HR HRK 3,709 RS 17/03/11 RS 4,922 8% 6.6 6.8 1.6 1.3 4.5 4.2 0.0% 0.0%
Lotos* PL PLN 21.33 RS 17/03/11 RS 621 47% 3.6 3.3 0.3 0.3 4.6 4.2 5.6% 6.1%
LUKoil* RU RUB 1,781 RS 28/11/11 RS 34,558 60% 5.1 5.9 0.6 0.5 2.9 3.1 4.3% 3.7%
MOL* HU HUF 16,905 RS 14/09/11 RS 4,863 33% 6.6 5.0 0.8 0.8 3.7 3.3 6.1% 7.9%
OMV * AT EUR 24.30 RS 22/06/11 RS 7,923 44% 4.9 4.6 0.7 0.6 2.4 1.9 6.1% 6.5%
Petrol* SI EUR 161.90 RS 17/03/11 RS 334 71% 7.3 9.9 0.7 0.7 7.4 8.2 4.0% 4.0%
Petrom* RO RON 0.29 RS 17/03/11 RS 3,772 6% 5.2 4.0 0.7 0.6 2.7 2.0 5.7% 5.7%
PKN* PL PLN 33.99 RS 27/04/11 RS 3,259 72% 6.9 6.1 0.6 0.5 5.0 4.9 3.6% 3.6%
Prospectiuni RO RON 0.185 B 26/09/11 0.27 31 32% 9.4 7.2 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.2 0.0% 0.0%
Rosneft* RU RUB 228 RS 03/11/11 RS 59,907 15% 7.7 7.5 1.0 0.9 4.3 3.9 1.3% 1.3%
SBO AT EUR 67.72 H 16/05/11 67.00 1,080 69% 19.6 17.6 3.4 3.1 9.1 8.3 2.2% 2.5%
Tatneft* RU RUB 170 RS 14/06/11 RS 8,926 8% 5.4 5.3 0.8 0.7 4.2 4.1 4.2% 4.3%
Unipetrol* CZ CZK 170.0 RS 17/03/11 RS 1,193 37% 16.1 14.6 0.8 0.7 4.4 4.1 5.0% 5.5%
Mean (companies) 7.7 7.2 0.9 0.8 4.2 4.0 3.6% 3.8%
Median (companies) 6.6 6.0 0.7 0.7 4.3 4.0 4.1% 3.8%
Healthcare
Biofarm RO RON 0.19 H 27/10/11 0.22 48 47% 11.3 9.8 1.2 1.2 6.3 5.3 4.8% 4.8%
Egis* HU HUF 16,300 RS 03/11/11 RS 408 39% 7.9 7.5 0.7 0.7 2.8 2.4 0.7% 0.7%
Gedeon Richter* HU HUF 35,160 RS 31/08/11 RS 2,107.6 54% 16.4 14.1 1.3 1.2 8.3 7.2 1.5% 1.8%
Intercell AT EUR 1.90 H 15/06/11 UR 92.3 83% neg. neg. 1.2 1.4 neg. neg. 0.0% 0.0%
Krka SI EUR 48.86 UR 09/09/11 64.75 1,649.7 70% 9.7 9.6 1.3 1.2 5.0 4.3 2.9% 2.7%
Mean (companies) 11.3 10.2 1.1 1.1 5.6 4.8 2.0% 2.0%
Median (companies) 10.5 9.7 1.2 1.2 5.6 4.8 1.5% 1.8%
** The indicated prices is the last price as available at 6:30 AM CET on 05.01.12
9
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Performance
Local index Volume (FX) Vola Perf. EUR (%) Perf. LC (%) Perf. LC rel. LX (%)
Country FX [LX] Name 250d 250d 1m 3m 12m 1m 3m 12m 1m 3m 12m
Basic Materials
Alumil Rom Industry RO RON BETI 0.0 36.3% -3.9 -4.4 -34.6 -3.9 -4.4 -34.6 -4.0 -1.5 -13.0
AMAG AT EUR ATX 0.4 29.5% -1.0 2.9 -13.7 -1.0 2.9 -13.7 -3.2 4.7 32.3
Bogdanka PL PLN WIG20 6.7 25.8% 0.4 0.8 -15.3 -0.5 4.4 -2.0 4.0 10.8 22.9
Ciech PL PLN WIG20 1.9 43.0% 8.6 21.0 -36.2 7.7 25.4 -26.2 12.5 33.1 -7.4
Evraz RU GBp FTSE 100 1,733.5 54.4% 12.3 18.8 -54.3 6.6 10.6 -55.3 4.0 5.2 -52.5
Ferrexpo UA GBp PFTS 359.1 54.9% 9.1 4.7 -26.3 3.6 -2.5 -27.8 15.3 -8.5 35.4
JSW PL PLN PX 38.7 38.9% 0.3 -6.7 -41.1 -0.5 -3.4 -33.5 -2.4 0.3 -8.0
Kety PL PLN WIG20 0.5 30.3% 1.6 -5.0 -31.4 0.7 -1.6 -20.6 5.2 4.5 -0.5
KGHM PL PLN WIG20 174.6 44.0% -7.2 -21.5 -40.5 -8.0 -18.7 -31.1 -3.9 -13.7 -13.7
Lenzing AT EUR ATX 2.3 33.1% 2.2 -11.7 -25.3 2.2 -11.7 -25.3 -0.1 -10.1 13.2
Mayr-Melnhof AT EUR ATX 0.8 20.2% 5.9 2.4 -23.4 5.9 2.4 -23.4 3.6 4.2 15.9
Mechel RU USD RTSI 12.3 60.0% 1.7 -2.6 -70.7 -3.4 -9.3 -71.3 -6.2 -15.4 -64.4
MMK RU USD RTSI 4.6 51.9% 1.2 2.1 -64.2 -3.9 -5.0 -64.9 -6.7 -11.3 -56.4
New World Resources CZ CZK PX 19.0 38.0% 10.3 4.6 -52.7 10.3 4.6 -52.7 8.2 8.5 -34.7
NLMK RU USD RTSI 18.5 52.5% 10.0 -3.3 -52.4 4.5 -9.9 -53.4 1.4 -16.0 -42.1
PhosAgro RU RUB MICEX n.a. 32.9% -8.8 -17.2 -39.1 -12.7 -22.5 -38.1 -16.9 -27.9 -28.8
Polymetal International RU GBp FTSE 100 567.9 38.1% 19.1 28.8 3.9 13.1 20.0 1.8 10.3 14.1 7.9
RHI AT EUR ATX 1.3 32.5% 3.2 9.6 -46.1 3.2 9.6 -46.1 0.9 11.5 -18.4
Severstal RU USD RTSI 29.9 48.5% 10.8 13.1 -27.5 5.2 5.3 -29.0 2.2 -1.7 -11.9
Synthos PL PLN WIG20 8.7 39.8% 2.5 1.2 8.5 1.7 4.9 25.5 6.2 11.3 57.3
voestalpine AT EUR ATX 13.1 48.1% 17.3 9.5 -33.3 17.3 9.5 -33.3 14.7 11.4 1.1
Mean (companies) 40.6% 4.6 2.2 -34.1 2.3 0.5 -31.2 2.2 0.6 -7.9
Median (companies)
38.9%
2.5 2.1
-34.6
2.2 2.4
-31.1
2.2 4.2 -8.0
Financials
Aik Banka RS RSD BELEX15 7.5 36.7% -6.9 -25.6 -55.4 -5.9 -23.5 -56.3 -2.4 -15.2 -41.1
Banca Transilvania RO RON BETI 1.1 29.9% -2.0 -6.5 -24.6 -1.6 -5.9 -22.8 -2.1 -3.6 0.3
Bank BGZ PL PLN WIG20 1.1 23.8% 2.6 -2.6 -31.9 1.8 0.9 -23.4 6.4 7.1 3.0
Bank Millennium PL PLN WIG20 5.5 39.8% 2.2 -19.3 -33.5 1.4 -16.3 -23.0 5.9 -11.2 -3.5
Bank Pekao SA PL PLN WIG20 74.7 35.8% -2.8 -6.5 -30.2 -2.5 -5.9 -28.6 0.7 2.9 1.3
BRD-GSG RO RON BETI 1.5 24.7% -1.2 -4.9 -23.5 -0.9 -4.3 -21.7 -1.3 -2.0 1.7
BRE Bank PL PLN WIG20 12.7 37.0% -3.8 -6.4 -28.8 -4.6 -3.0 -17.6 -0.3 3.0 3.3
BZ WBK PL PLN WIG20 1.0 19.4% -1.2 -3.5 -9.1 -2.0 0.0 5.2 2.4 6.1 31.9
Erste Group AT EUR ATX 19.9 50.6% -4.5 -30.7 -64.0 -4.5 -30.7 -64.0 -6.5 -29.5 -45.5
Komercijalna RS RSD BELEX15 3.3 28.7% -0.7 -9.1 -33.0 0.4 -6.5 -34.3 4.1 3.6 -11.5
Komercni Banka CZ CZK PX 268.9 32.4% -2.7 -10.6 -31.2 -1.1 -6.8 -27.2 -3.0 -3.3 0.6
NKBM SI EUR SBITOP 0.0 43.9% -8.7 -30.0 -68.5 -8.7 -30.0 -68.5 -6.7 -24.9 -54.5
OTP HU HUF BUX 9,473.4 46.3% 0.0 -9.6 -46.6 3.2 -4.5 -40.2 4.9 -3.1 -20.6
PKO BP PL PLN WIG20 111.5 31.0% -7.2 -12.7 -34.9 -8.0 -9.5 -24.7 -3.9 -4.0 -5.6
Raiffeisen Bank Intl. AT EUR ATX 7.3 52.8% -3.9 -5.1 -53.6 -3.9 -5.1 -53.6 -5.9 -3.5 -29.7
UNIQA AT EUR ATX 0.1 24.4% -0.8 -14.8 -32.2 -0.8 -14.8 -32.2 -3.0 -13.3 2.7
Vienna Insurance Group AT EUR ATX 3.2 36.0% 5.6 9.5 -22.4 5.6 9.5 -22.4 3.3 11.4 17.5
Mean (companies) 34.9% -2.1 -11.1 -36.7 -1.9 -9.2 -32.7 -0.4 -4.7 -8.8
Median (companies)
35.8%
-2.0 -9.1
-32.2
-1.6 -5.9
-27.2
-1.3 -3.3 0.3
Industrials
Andritz AT EUR ATX 9.2 35.0% 6.3 5.9 -1.8 6.3 5.9 -1.8 4.0 7.7 48.7
Flughafen Wien AT EUR ATX 0.5 25.9% -3.3 -12.1 -44.0 -3.3 -12.1 -44.0 -5.4 -10.6 -15.2
Oesterreichische Post AT EUR ATX 1.6 21.4% 6.9 12.3 -0.5 6.9 12.3 -0.5 4.6 14.3 50.8
Palfinger AT EUR ATX 0.3 39.4% 0.4 -12.3 -53.0 0.4 -12.3 -53.0 -1.8 -10.8 -28.8
Polytec AT EUR ATX 0.5 37.8% 3.1 7.6 27.8 3.1 7.6 27.8 0.9 9.5 93.6
Rosenbauer AT EUR ATX 0.1 32.0% 9.6 22.1 -5.5 9.6 22.1 -5.5 7.2 24.2 43.2
Semperit AT EUR ATX 0.5 24.6% -0.7 -1.1 -24.0 -0.7 -1.1 -24.0 -2.9 0.6 15.0
Teraplast RO RON BETI 0.0 54.0% 21.3 -12.3 -35.6 21.7 -11.8 -34.1 21.2 -9.7 -14.4
Mean (companies) 33.8% 5.5 1.3 -17.1 5.5 1.3 -16.9 3.5 3.2 24.1
Median (companies)
33.5%
4.7 2.4
-14.7
4.7 2.4
-14.7
2.4 4.2 29.1
Oil & Gas
Gazprom RU RUB RTSI 12,645.5 30.1% 10.3 24.9 -6.4 4.7 16.3 -8.3 1.7 8.5 13.7
INA HR HRK CROBEX n.a. 6.3% -12.0 -12.2 13.5 -11.5 -11.5 15.5 -9.5 -9.1 47.6
Lotos PL PLN WIG20 12.5 35.0% -12.6 -14.8 -49.1 -13.3 -11.8 -41.1 -9.4 -6.3 -26.1
LUKoil RU RUB RTSI 3,707.8 25.5% 16.3 15.0 1.1 10.4 7.1 -0.9 7.2 -0.1 22.9
MOL HU HUF BUX 3,014.8 34.8% -9.5 -4.4 -30.5 -6.6 0.9 -22.3 -5.1 2.5 3.2
OMV AT EUR ATX 12.8 27.8% -1.1 5.0 -21.4 -1.1 5.0 -21.4 -3.3 6.9 19.1
Petrol SI EUR SBITOP 0.1 22.3% 3.1 0.5 -39.4 3.1 0.5 -39.4 5.3 7.8 -12.4
Petrom RO RON BETI 1.0 26.6% -1.0 -3.9 -19.5 -0.7 -3.3 -17.6 -1.1 -1.0 7.0
PKN PL PLN WIG20 52.9 35.7% -11.0 -11.2 -34.3 -11.7 -8.0 -24.0 -7.7 -2.4 -4.7
Prospectiuni RO RON BETI 0.0 38.2% 3.6 2.2 -32.3 3.9 2.8 -30.7 3.5 5.3 -10.0
Rosneft RU RUB RTSI 2,768.9 30.8% 14.9 27.4 3.3 9.1 18.6 1.2 5.9 10.6 25.5
SBO AT EUR ATX 1.7 35.2% -0.8 20.5 9.0 -0.8 20.5 9.0 -3.0 22.6 65.1
Tatneft RU RUB RTSI 246.5 35.6% 15.1 35.3 7.0 10.1 26.6 8.8 6.9 18.1 35.0
Unipetrol CZ CZK PX 15.7 12.9% -1.5 -5.2 -17.6 0.2 -1.2 -12.8 -1.8 2.6 20.4
Mean (companies) 28.3% 1.0 5.6 -15.5 -0.3 4.5 -13.1 -0.7 4.7 14.7
Median (companies)
30.4%
-0.9 1.3
-18.6
-0.3 1.9
-15.2
-1.4 3.9 16.4
Healthcare
Biofarm RO RON BETI 0.1 27.2% 2.4 -5.6 -16.1 2.7 -5.0 -14.1 2.3 -2.7 11.6
Egis HU HUF BUX 119 27.6% -11.2 -5.1 -30.7 -8.4 0.2 -22.4 -6.9 1.7 3.1
Gedeon Richter HU HUF BUX 885.5 24.9% 0.2 -2.9 -27.9 3.4 2.5 -19.4 5.1 4.1 7.1
Intercell AT EUR ATX 0.7 62.3% -2.2 -4.2 -82.1 -2.2 -4.2 -82.1 -4.3 -2.6 -72.9
Krka SI EUR SBITOP 0.6 18.6% -2.1 -6.8 -21.2 -2.1 -6.8 -21.2 0.0 0.0 13.8
Mean (companies) 32.1% -2.6 -4.9 -35.6 -1.3 -2.7 -31.8 -0.8 0.1 -7.5
Median (companies) 27.2% -2.1 -5.1 -27.9 -2.1 -4.2 -21.2 0.0 0.0 7.1
10
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Recommendations, Multiples
Price (FX) Ratings Price MCap. FF P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div. yield (%)
Country
FX 11/01** Rec.
from target EUR mn (%) 12e 13e 12e 13e 12e 13e 12e 13e
Technology
Asseco Poland PL PLN 48.28 R 05/01/12 44.30 839 67% 10.9 10.2 0.8 0.7 5.3 4.9 3.3% 3.4%
AT&S AT EUR 8.59 H 02/12/11 9.70 200 51% 7.2 6.8 0.7 0.6 4.2 3.6 4.7% 4.9%
austriamicrosystems AT CHF 37.20 B 23/11/11 47.00 347 95% 7.7 7.3 1.1 1.0 6.0 5.6 4.6% 5.2%
Ericsson Nikola Tesla HR HRK 1,079 H 15/11/11 1,181 191 41% 18.3 13.3 1.9 2.2 9.0 7.2 13.9% 13.9%
Kapsch TrafficCom SI EUR 58.03 B 11/01/12 72.40 754 30% 11.5 10.9 2.9 2.4 5.9 5.3 2.6% 2.8%
Mean (companies) 11.1 9.7 1.5 1.4 6.1 5.3 5.8% 6.0%
Median (companies)
10.9 10.2 1.1 1.0 5.9 5.3 4.6% 4.9%
Telecommunication
Hrvatski Telekom HR HRK 243 H 30/11/11 255 2,639 38% 11.5 11.4 1.8 1.8 4.6 4.6 9.1% 8.9%
Magyar Telekom HU HUF 516 B 16/03/11 UR 1,729 41% 11.4 8.0 1.0 1.0 4.3 3.8 9.7% 12.6%
MTS RU USD 16.27 B 21/09/11 19.70 12,795 49% 11.5 10.4 3.0 2.6 4.5 4.1 5.2% 5.7%
Netia PL PLN 5.58 B 08/11/11 6.25 481 71% 21.2 11.7 0.9 0.9 4.5 3.7 3.8% 6.8%
Telefonica CR CZ CZK 391.0 H 19/10/11 400.0 4,875 31% 14.3 13.5 2.0 2.1 5.7 5.7 10.2% 9.2%
Telekom Austria AT EUR 8.98 H 17/11/11 8.40 3,980 72% 18.3 16.5 6.0 6.7 5.6 5.5 8.5% 6.7%
TPSA PL PLN 17.48 B 19/08/11 18.80 5,233 50% 21.1 18.4 1.8 1.9 5.6 4.9 8.6% 8.6%
VimpelCom Ltd RU USD 10.35 H 06/10/11 UR 13,181 18% 11.8 9.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 4.7 7.7% 7.7%
Mean (companies) 15.1 12.4 2.2 2.2 5.0 4.6 7.8% 8.3%
Median (companies)
13.1
11.6
1.8
1.8 4.8 4.7 8.5% 8.2%
Utilities
CEZ CZ CZK 777.9 B 26/09/11 800.0 16,079 30% 9.4 10.3 1.6 1.5 5.7 6.2 6.3% 5.8%
ENEA PL PLN 18.45 B 26/09/11 18.50 1,826 29% 9.8 12.4 0.7 0.7 3.7 5.1 3.1% 2.4%
EVN AT EUR 10.50 H 26/09/11 11.50 1,881 16% 9.6 8.9 0.6 0.6 2.8 2.4 3.7% 4.0%
PGE PL PLN 20.37 B 26/09/11 22.00 8,538 31% 7.8 9.5 0.9 0.8 3.8 4.4 5.7% 4.7%
PGNiG PL PLN 4.11 H 22/03/11 4.20 5,436 27% 16.4 15.1 0.9 0.9 7.3 6.7 2.4% 2.7%
Tauron PL PLN 5.42 H 26/09/11 5.50 2,129 60% 8.8 29.5 0.7 0.7 4.4 6.5 3.4% 1.4%
Transelectrica* RO RON 17.60 H 08/11/11 UR 296 13% 9.5 7.8 0.6 0.6 4.5 4.0 5.3% 6.5%
Transgaz RO RON 230.00 H 26/08/11 237.00 622 11% 10.1 9.2 0.9 0.9 5.7 5.1 5.6% 6.1%
Verbund AT EUR 20.30 H 26/09/11 23.00 7,053 16% 14.6 14.3 1.5 1.4 7.9 7.9 3.4% 3.3%
Mean (companies) 10.7 13.0 0.9 0.9 5.1 5.4 4.3% 4.1%
Median (companies) 9.6 10.3 0.9 0.8 4.5 5.1 3.7% 4.0%
Construction & Materials
Bene* AT EUR 1.21 RS 03/02/11 RS 29 54% 6.9 4.4 0.7 0.6 3.2 2.6 4.1% 8.3%
Budimex*° PL PLN 79.90 RS 20/04/11 RS 457 35% 10.0 12.1 2.9 2.9 4.0 4.7 7.8% 6.9%
Mostostal Warszawa PL PLN 15.60 R 08/09/11 UR 70 29% 13.8 7.4 0.6 0.5 2.0 1.1 1.8% 3.4%
PBG*° PL PLN 81.70 RS 15/04/11 RS 262 40% 6.4 6.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 n.a. 3.5% 4.0%
Polimex-Mostostal PL PLN 1.77 H 14/09/11 1.60 207 65% 11.8 11.8 0.6 0.6 5.8 4.5 1.7% 1.7%
STRABAG SE AT EUR 22.55 H 01/12/11 23.00 2,393 16% 12.7 12.9 0.7 0.7 3.6 3.5 2.7% 2.7%
Wienerberger AT EUR 7.37 B 03/01/12 9.50 848 98% neg. 20.5 0.4 0.4 6.3 5.1 1.4% 2.7%
Zumtobel* AT EUR 11.65 RS 10/03/11 RS 498 64% 5.5 4.9 0.9 0.8 2.8 2.2 5.6% 6.4%
Mean (companies) 9.6 n.a. 0.9 n.a. 3.4 n.a. 3.6% 4.5%
Median (companies)
10.0
9.6 0.6
0.6 3.4
3.5 3.1% 3.7%
Real Estate
CA Immobilien AT EUR 7.99 H 06/04/11 UR 702 83% 13.6 13.9 0.4 0.4 18.5 17.6 4.7% 4.7%
conwert AT EUR 8.04 B 30/03/11 UR 690 77% 12.2 11.9 0.5 0.5 12.3 12.2 4.4% 4.4%
Echo Investment PL PLN 3.40 B 04/10/11 4.40 320 32% 18.4 12.1 0.6 0.6 27.1 17.6 0.0% 0.0%
Globe Trade Centre PL PLN 7.91 H 04/10/11 13.40 389 57% 27.1 5.4 0.4 0.4 15.8 11.0 0.0% 0.0%
Immofinanz AT EUR 2.26 B 12/10/11 3.30 2,342 90% 8.3 6.7 0.4 0.4 11.9 9.2 8.9% 8.9%
Polnord PL PLN 14.11 B 21/09/11 20.00 75 51% 10.8 9.4 0.3 0.3 14.5 13.2 0.0% 0.0%
Warimpex AT EUR .72 UR 08/03/11 UR 39 35% 7.6 4.0 0.4 0.4 10.6 9.0 0.0% 0.0%
Mean (companies) 14.0 9.1 0.4 0.4 15.8 12.8 2.6% 2.6%
Median (companies)
12.2
9.4 0.4
0.4 14.5
12.2 0.0% 0.0%
Consumer, cyclical
Agora PL PLN 10.94 B 20/09/11 17.50 125 89% 11.0 9.4 0.4 0.4 2.6 2.3 4.6% 4.6%
Cinema City PL PLN 28.18 H 16/12/11 32.00 323 25% 15.1 12.9 1.2 1.1 6.3 5.7 0.0% 0.0%
CTC Media RU USD 9.15 B 24/11/11 14.50 1,143 37% 9.1 8.3 1.8 1.7 5.2 4.9 9.9% 10.2%
Cyfrowy Polsat PL PLN 12.83 H 11/01/12 14.60 1,002 48% 11.3 10.7 2.1 1.8 7.9 6.7 0.0% 3.1%
Gorenje SI EUR 4.50 B 21/11/11 6.75 71 54% 5.9 3.7 0.2 0.2 4.4 3.9 0.0% 0.0%
LPP PL PLN 1,970.00 B 05/12/11 2,500.00 761 39% 15.2 11.3 3.5 3.0 8.4 6.6 3.9% 5.3%
M.video RU RUB 194 B 27/09/11 295 864 31% 12.5 9.7 2.6 2.1 4.9 3.7 2.6% 3.4%
TVN PL PLN 9.68 B 22/12/11 12.20 746 44% 3.4 13.4 1.7 1.6 7.4 6.9 1.6% 3.7%
Wolford AT EUR 23.45 H 07/12/11 25.00 115 49% 12.6 10.4 1.2 1.1 5.8 4.9 2.6% 3.0%
Mean (companies) 10.7 10.0 1.6 1.4 5.9 5.1 2.8% 3.7%
Median (companies) 11.3 10.4 1.7 1.6 5.8 4.9 2.6% 3.4%
Consumer, non-cyclical
Adris HR HRK 220.3 H 30/12/11 248.0 474 64% 7.4 8.6 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.7 3.2% 3.2%
Agrana* AT EUR 79.00 H 14/10/11 UR 1,122 25% 12.2 11.4 1.1 1.0 6.4 6.1 3.7% 3.7%
CEDC PL USD 4.60 H 12/12/11 UR 315 70% 11.3 8.8 0.2 0.2 8.0 7.4 0.0% 0.0%
Eurocash PL PLN 29.30 B 30/12/11 33.50 898 44% 20.6 16.9 5.8 4.6 9.7 8.2 1.5% 1.8%
Magnit RU USD 23.00 B 28/11/11 27.30 8,045 54% 23.1 16.5 4.2 3.4 10.5 8.5 0.4% 0.6%
Mercator SI EUR 143.50 UR 06/10/11 UR 534 44% 27.0 20.6 0.7 0.7 8.7 8.2 6.4% 6.7%
OKey RU USD 6.70 H 13/10/11 6.70 1,420 14% 15.1 11.0 3.6 2.7 7.2 5.5 0.0% 0.0%
Podravka HR HRK 242 H 07/12/11 276 168 35% 10.2 9.0 0.7 0.6 5.9 5.7 2.3% 2.5%
Viro HR HRK 415 H 07/12/11 465 76 32% 6.6 6.3 1.0 0.9 5.7 5.0 2.9% 3.1%
X5 RU USD 24.05 B 02/12/11 39.50 5,135 30% 19.9 12.4 2.5 2.1 8.2 6.5 0.0% 0.0%
Mean (companies) 15.3 12.1 2.0 1.7 7.1 6.2 2.0% 2.2%
Median (companies) 13.7 11.2 1.0 0.9 7.6 6.3 1.9% 2.2%
** The indicated prices is the last price as available at 6:30 AM CET on 05.01.12
11
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Performance
Local index Volume (FX) Vola Perf. EUR (%) Perf. LC (%) Perf. LC rel. LX (%)
Country FX [LX] Name 250d 250d 1m 3m 12m 1m 3m 12m 1m 3m 12m
Technology
Asseco Poland PL PLN WIG20 6.5 30.7% 1.6 3.1 -24.3 0.7 6.8 -12.4 5.3 13.4 9.8
AT&S AT EUR ATX 0 35.3% -0.9 -4.0 -0.5 -0.9 -4.0 -52.8 -3.1 -2.3 -28.5
austriamicrosystems AT CHF ATX 0.7 34.7% -3.4 4.8 -0.2 -3.4 4.8 -20.9 -5.5 6.6 19.9
Ericsson Nikola Tesla HR HRK CROBEX 0.6 23.9% -3.0 1.4 -0.3 -2.4 2.2 -27.0 -0.2 4.9 -6.7
Kapsch TrafficCom SI EUR ATX 0.4 33.4% 5.5 13.8 -0.2 5.5 13.8 -17.7 3.2 15.8 24.7
Mean (companies) 31.6% 0.0 3.8 -5.1 -0.1 4.7 -26.1 -0.1 7.7 3.8
Median (companies) 33.4% -0.9 3.1 -0.3 -0.9 4.8 -20.9 -0.2 6.6 9.8
Telecommunication
Hrvatski Telekom HR HRK CROBEX 3.5 11.2% -1.6 0.1 -19.4 -1.1 0.8 -18.0 1.2 3.6 4.8
Magyar Telekom HU HUF BUX 794.0 21.2% -3.9 -5.3 -16.2 -0.8 0.0 -6.2 0.9 1.5 24.6
MTS RU USD RTSI 16.3 37.4% 14.1 28.3 -19.5 8.3 19.5 -21.1 5.2 11.4 -2.2
Netia PL PLN WIG20 3.8 26.8% 8.8 11.0 -8.1 7.9 15.1 6.3 12.8 22.1 33.2
Telefonica CR CZ CZK PX 100.6 19.0% 2.5 -4.3 -5.7 4.3 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 3.5 37.7
Telekom Austria AT EUR ATX 7.4 24.0% 3.6 13.0 -11.5 3.6 13.0 -11.5 1.4 15.0 34.0
TPSA PL PLN WIG20 53.3 27.0% -0.7 1.0 -7.5 -1.5 4.7 7.0 2.9 11.1 34.1
VimpelCom Ltd RU USD RTSI 11.5 29.7% 5.5 12.9 -31.6 0.2 5.1 -33.0 -2.7 -2.0 -16.8
Mean (companies) 24.6% 3.6 7.1 -14.9 2.6 7.2 -9.6 3.0 8.3 18.7
Median (companies)
25.4%
3.1
6.0
-13.8 1.9
4.9 -8.8
1.8
7.3
28.9
Utilities
CEZ CZ CZK PX 388.7 22.8% 1.9 4.8 -10.6 3.6 9.3 -5.4 1.6 13.4 30.7
ENEA PL PLN WIG20 3.5 31.1% 0.2 7.3 -32.6 -0.6 11.1 -22.0 3.9 18.0 -2.2
EVN AT EUR ATX 1 22.5% -1.7 1.9 -14.8 -1.7 1.9 -14.8 -3.8 3.7 29.1
PGE PL PLN WIG20 47.2 30.7% 2.1 -2.7 -21.8 1.2 0.8 -9.5 5.8 7.0 13.5
PGNiG PL PLN WIG20 24.3 26.5% -0.1 1.2 1.8 -1.0 4.8 17.8 3.5 11.3 47.6
Tauron PL PLN WIG20 21.1 24.4% 2.4 -1.1 -28.9 1.5 2.5 -17.8 6.1 8.7 3.1
Transelectrica RO RON BETI 0.1 29.1% 3.8 -3.4 -20.0 4.1 -2.8 -18.1 3.7 -0.5 6.4
Transgaz RO RON BETI 0.3 27.3% 7.1 7.5 -19.7 7.5 8.1 -17.9 7.0 10.7 6.7
Verbund AT EUR ATX 5.9 27.6% 4.6 -4.0 -24.8 4.6 -4.0 -24.8 2.3 -2.3 13.9
Mean (companies) 26.9% 2.3 1.3 -19.0 2.1 3.5 -12.5 3.3 7.8 16.5
Median (companies)
27.3%
2.1 1.2
-20.0
1.5 2.5
-17.8
3.7 8.7 13.5
Construction & Materials
Bene AT EUR ATX 0.0 36.3% 8.0 -2.4 -36.3 8.0 -2.4 -36.3 5.7 -0.7 -3.6
Budimex PL PLN WIG20 1 35.0% 11.1 8.3 -33.6 10.2 12.2 -23.2 15.2 19.1 -3.7
Mostostal Warszawa PL PLN WIG20 0.3 39.0% -35.0 -37.2 -76.9 -18.2 -35.0 -73.3 -14.5 -31.0 -66.5
PBG PL PLN WIG20 7.4 42.4% 16.3 -5.0 -65.7 15.3 -1.6 -60.3 20.5 4.5 -50.3
Polimex-Mostostal PL PLN WIG20 3.4 46.6% 22.3 0.5 -61.5 21.2 4.1 -55.4 26.7 10.5 -44.1
STRABAG SE AT EUR ATX 1.5 27.6% 0.4 -2.3 10.3 0.4 -2.3 10.3 -1.8 -0.6 67.1
Wienerberger AT EUR ATX 3.5 40.3% -1.0 -18.0 n.a. -1.0 -18.0 n.a. -3.2 -16.6 n.a.
Zumtobel AT EUR ATX 1.2 41.2% -6.8 -12.8 -45.5 -6.8 -12.8 -45.5 -8.9 -11.3 -17.4
Mean (companies) 38.5% 1.9 -8.6 -44.2 3.6 -7.0 -40.5 5.0 -3.3 -16.9
Median (companies)
39.7%
4.2 -3.7
-45.5
4.2 -2.3
-45.5
1.9 -0.6 -17.4
Real Estate
CA Immobilien AT EUR ATX 1.5 34.6% -6.6 -6.9 -33.1 -6.6 -6.9 -33.1 -8.7 -5.3 1.4
conwert AT EUR ATX 1.8 29.9% -5.4 -14.1 -27.2 -5.4 -14.1 -27.2 -7.5 -12.7 10.2
Echo Investment PL PLN WIG20 1.0 36.7% 2.0 -13.0 -38.8 1.2 -9.8 -29.2 5.7 -4.3 -11.2
Globe Trade Centre PL PLN WIG20 n.a. 41.7% -18.9 -33.0 -67.4 -18.9 -33.0 -67.4 -15.2 -28.8 -59.2
Immofinanz AT EUR ATX 6.7 29.8% -0.9 4.1 -29.4 -0.9 4.1 -29.4 -3.1 5.9 6.9
Polnord PL PLN WIG20 1.2 39.4% 5.3 4.7 -61.9 4.4 8.5 -55.9 9.1 15.2 -44.7
Warimpex AT EUR ATX 0.0 41.3% -15.4 -41.4 -71.2 -15.4 -41.4 -71.2 -17.3 -40.3 -56.4
Mean (companies) 36.2% -5.7 -14.2 -47.0 -5.9 -13.2 -44.8 -5.3 -10.0 -21.9
Median (companies)
36.7%
-5.4 -13.0
-38.8
-5.4 -9.8
-33.1
-7.5 -5.3 -11.2
Consumer, cyclical
Agora PL PLN WIG20 1.3 34.5% -13.6 -23.0 -63.5 -14.3 -20.2 -57.7 -10.5 -15.3 -47.0
Cinema City PL PLN WIG20 0.7 30.6% 0.6 4.4 -34.8 0.6 4.4 -34.8 5.2 10.8 -18.2
CTC Media RU USD RTSI 6.2 47.0% -0.1 -13.4 -59.3 -5.2 -19.4 -60.2 -7.9 -24.8 -50.6
Cyfrowy Polsat PL PLN WIG20 6.6 28.5% -6.2 -15.8 -28.9 -7.0 -12.7 -17.8 -2.8 -7.4 3.1
Gorenje SI EUR SBITOP 0.0 37.5% 1.1 -20.1 -65.6 1.1 -20.1 -65.6 3.3 -14.2 -50.4
LPP PL PLN WIG20 1.7 23.7% -1.2 -3.0 -18.4 -2.0 0.5 -5.6 2.4 6.7 18.4
M.video RU RUB RTSI 9.1 32.5% -1.9 8.2 -29.0 -6.1 1.3 -27.8 -8.9 -5.5 -10.4
TVN AT PLN WIG20 8.9 39.2% -0.4 -37.5 -50.0 -1.2 -35.3 -42.2 3.2 -31.3 -27.5
Wolford AT EUR ATX 0.1 33.4% -4.5 -5.3 -1.4 -4.5 -5.3 -1.4 -6.6 -3.6 49.3
Mean (companies) 34.1% -2.9 -11.7 -39.0 -4.3 -11.9 -34.8 -2.5 -9.4 -14.8
Median (companies)
33.4%
-1.2 -13.4
-34.8
-4.5 -12.7
-34.8
-2.8 -7.4 -18.2
Consumer, non-cyclical
Adris HR HRK CROBEX 0.7 14.8% 1.4 8.3 -24.7 2.0 9.1 -23.4 4.3 12.1 -2.1
Agrana AT EUR ATX 0.1 21.1% 9.3 -2.5 -0.1 9.3 -2.5 -0.1 6.9 -0.8 51.2
CEDC PL USD WIG20 16.0 105.4% -14.7 -28.6 -81.1 -19.0 -33.5 -81.5 -15.4 -29.4 -76.7
Eurocash PL PLN WIG 3.7 33.7% 17.3 19.4 -16.8 16.3 23.7 -3.7 19.7 29.6 19.8
Magnit RU USD RTSI 27.2 45.5% 20.5 30.0 -19.7 14.4 21.1 -21.3 11.1 12.9 -2.4
Mercator SI EUR SBITOP 0.2 27.9% -7.4 -9.7 -7.7 -7.4 -9.7 -7.7 -5.4 -3.2 33.4
OKey RU USD RTSI 2.5 48.6% 16.7 29.0 -51.6 11.7 20.7 -50.7 8.4 12.6 -38.9
Podravka HR HRK CROBEX 0.4 17.4% -3.5 -5.2 -29.0 -2.9 -4.5 -27.8 -0.7 -1.9 -7.7
Viro HR HRK CROBEX 0.2 18.9% 0.7 0.3 -0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 3.6 3.8 29.2
X5 RU USD RTSI 23.4 45.4% 10.5 18.0 -46.0 4.9 9.8 -47.1 1.8 2.4 -34.4
Mean (companies) 37.9% 5.1 5.9 -27.7 3.0 3.5 -26.2 3.4 3.8 -2.9
Median (companies) 30.8% 5.4 4.3 -22.2 3.4 5.1 -22.4 3.9 3.1 -2.2
Recommendation categories: B Buy Footnotes: * Estimates under review Source: Raiffeisen Centrobank estimates
H Hold ° Consensus estimates (Bloomberg)
R Reduce NR Not rated
S Sell RS Recommentation suspended
12
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Favourite Stock Selections
Company Country Sector Since Market Cap Current Price** Price Target
Erste Group AT Financials 06/12/11 EUR 5,251 mn EUR 12.23 EUR 16.00
Lenzing AT Basic Materials 06/12/11 EUR 1,650 mn EUR 63.85 EUR 95.00
Magnit RU Consumer, non-cyclical 28/11/11 EUR 7,265 mn USD 23 USD 27.3
AMAG AT Basic Materials 04/11/11 EUR 555 mn EUR 15.44 U.R.
PKO BP PL Financials 10/10/11 EUR 8,993 mn PLN 30.50 PLN 38.00
ENEA PL Utilities 27/09/11 EUR 1,780 mn PLN 18.45 PLN 18.50
PGE PL Utilities 27/09/11 EUR 8,669 mn PLN 20.37 PLN 22.00
Polymetal International RU Basic Materials 14/09/11 EUR 5,070 mn GBp 1,154 GBp 1,319
Bogdanka PL Basic Materials 05/08/11 EUR 792 mn PLN 108.60 PLN 151.00
Kapsch TrafficCom AT Technology 05/08/11 EUR 754 mn EUR 58.03 EUR 72.40
Oesterreichische Post AT Industrials 04/08/11 EUR 1,574 mn EUR 23.92 EUR 25.50
Netia PL Telecommunication 21/04/11 EUR 454 mn PLN 5.58 PLN 6.25
Bene AT Construction & Materials 22/12/10 EUR 29 mn EUR 1.21 U.R.
Immofinanz AT Real Estate 23/11/10 EUR 2,342 mn EUR 2.26 EUR 3.30
Source: Reuters, Raiffeisen Centrobank
** The indicated prices are the last prices as available at 6:30 AM (CET) on 12.01.12.
13
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Disclosures
Companies AT
A-Tec 3 Do&Co MTH STRABAG SE 3, 4, 5
Agrana 3, 5 Erste Group 3 Oesterreichische Post 3, 5 SW Umwelttechnik
AMAG 3, 4, 5 EVN 3, 4, 5 OMV 3, 4 Teak Holz 3
Andritz 3 Fabasoft Ottakringer Telekom Austria 3, 5
AT&S 3, 4, 5 Flughafen Wien 3 Palfinger 3 UBM 4, 5
Atrium 3 Frauenthal 4, 5 Pankl Racing Systems UNIQA 1, 3
austriamicrosystems Head N.V. Polytec 3, 5 Unternehmens Inv.
Beko HIRSCH Servo Porr 3 Verbund 3
Bene 3, 5 HTI RHI 1, 3 Vienna Insurance Group 3
bwin.party Immofinanz 3 Rosenbauer 3, 5 voestalpine 3, 4
BWT Intercell 3 S IMMO Warimpex 3, 4, 5
C.A.T. oil Kapsch TrafficCom 3, 4, 5 S&T Wienerberger 3, 4
CA Immobilien 3 KTM Power Sports 3 Sanochemia Wolford 3
Century Casinos 3 Lenzing 3, 4 SBO 3, 5 Zumtobel 3
conwert 5 Mayr-Melnhof 3 Semperit 3
1. RCB or an affiliated company (individually or together) owns more than 5% of the issued share capital of the issuer.
2. The issuer owns more than 5 % of the issued share capital of RCB or an affiliated company.
3. RCB or an affiliated company acts as a market maker (or specialist) or designated sponsor or stabilizing manager of the securities of the issuer.
4. RCB or an affiliated company was a manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities of the issuer within the last 12 months.
5. RCB or an affiliated company has agreed to render (and to receive compensation for) other investment banking services to the issuer within the last 12 months.
6. The analyst owns securities of the issuer analysed by him.
7. The analyst is on the Supervisory Board/Board of Directors of the issuer analysed by him.
8. The analyst has received or acquired securities of the issuer before launch of the public offering of such securities.
9. The remuneration of the analyst is linked to investment banking services rendered by RCB or an affiliated company.
14
Equity Weekly
12/01/12
Disclosures
Companies CEE
POLAND Polnord SIF Oltenia MMK
Agora Synthos SIF Transilvania MTS
Asseco Poland Tauron Teraplast MVideo
Bank BGZ TPSA Transelectrica NLMK
Bank Millennium TVN Transgaz OKey
Bank Pekao SA PhosAgro 4
Bogdanka CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVENIA Polymetal
BRE Bank CEZ 5 Gorenje Rosneft
Budimex Komercni Banka 5 Krka Severstal
BZ WBK New World Resources Mercator 5 Tatneft
CEDC Telefonica O2 CR 3, 5, 6 NKBM VimpelCom Ltd
Ciech 5 Unipetrol Petrol X5 4
Cinema City
Cyfrowy Polsat HUNGARY CROATIA UKRAINE
Echo Investment Egis Adris Ferrexpo
ENEA Gedeon Richter Ericsson Nikola Tesla
Eurocash Magyar Telekom Hrvatski Telekom
Getin MOL 5 INA
Globe Trade Centre OTP Podravka
JSW Viro
Kety ROMANIA
KGHM Albalact SERBIA
Lotos Alumil Rom Industry Aik Banka
LPP Banca Transilvania Komercijalna
Mostostal Warszawa Biofarm
Netia 5 BRD-GSG RUSSIA
PBG Fondul Proprietatea CTC Media
PGE Petrom Evraz
PGNiG Prospectiuni Gazprom
PKN SIF Banat-Crisana LUKoil
PKO BP SIF Moldova Magnit
Polimex-Mostostal SIF Muntenia Mechel
1. RCB or an affiliated company (individually or together) owns more than 5% of the issued share capital of the issuer.
2. The issuer owns more than 5 % of the issued share capital of RCB or an affiliated company.
3. RCB or an affiliated company acts as a market maker (or specialist) or designated sponsor or stabilizing manager of the securities of the issuer.
4. RCB or an affiliated company was a manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities of the issuer within the last 12 months.
5. RCB or an affiliated company has agreed to render (and to receive compensation for) other investment banking services to the issuer within the last 12 months.
6. The analyst owns securities of the issuer analysed by him.
7. The analyst is on the Supervisory Board/Board of Directors of the issuer analysed by him.
8. The analyst has received or acquired securities of the issuer before launch of the public offering of such securities.
9. The remuneration of the analyst is linked to investment banking services rendered by RCB or an affiliated company.
15
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
12/01/12
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Raiffeisen Centrobank´s rating and risk classification system:
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Risk ratings: indicators of potential price fluctuations are: low, medium, high.
Tel.: +431/717 07-0. A-1030 Vienna. Am Stadtpark 9. Internet: http://www.rzb.at
Risk ratings take into account volatility. Fundamental criteria might lead to a change in the risk classification. Also, the classification may change over the course of time. Investment
rating: Investment ratings are based on expected total return within a 12-month period from the date of the initial rating.
Buy: Market Research: Technical Analysis:
Stock Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 15% (20% for shares with a high volatility risk) and are the most attractive stocks in our coverage universe on a 12
Hannes Loacker
month horizon. ext. 1885 Robert Schittler ext. 1537
ext. 1358 Stefan Memmer ext. 1421
Andreas Schiller are expected to deliver a positive total return of up to 15% (20% for shares with a high volatility risk) within a 12-month period.
Hold: Hold stocks
Aaron Alber ext. 1513
Reduce: Reduce stocks are expected to achieve a negative total return up to -10% within a 12-month period.
Helge Rechberger ext. 1533
Sell: Sell stocks are expected to post a negative total return of more than -10% within a 12-month period.
Johannes Mattner ext. 1463
Price targets are determined by the fair value derived from a peer group comparison and/or our DCF model. Other fundamental factors (M&A activities, capital markets transactions,
share buybacks, sector sentiment etc.) are taken into account as well. Upon the release of a research paper, investment ratings are determined by the ranges described above. Interim
deviations from the above mentioned ranges will not system:
Raiffeisen Centrobank’s rating and risk classificationcause a change in the recommendation automatically but will become subject to review.
This report has been prepared by Raiffeisen Centrobank for information purposes only. Maximum care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue,
Risk ratings: indicators of potential price fluctuations are: low, medium, high.
however, its complete accuracy or correctness cannot be guaranteed. This report is aimed solely at professional investors who are expected to make their own investment decisions
Risk ratings take into account volatility. Fundamental criteria might lead to a change in the risk classification. Also, the classification may change over the course of time.
without placing undue reliance on the information interpreted by Raiffeisen Centrobank, which under no circumstance accepts any responsibility for consequences arising from the use
of this report. This information may not be reproduced, transmitted or distributed (in whole or in part) by any other person.
Investment rating: Investment ratings are based on expected total return within a 12-month period from the date of the initial rating.Unless otherwise stated, all views (including statements and
forecasts) are solely those of Raiffeisen Centrobank and are subject to change without notice. Raiffeisen Centrobank has defined areas of confidentiality ("Chinese Walls") to ensure
that passing on of confidential information is limited to the extent necessary in the ordinary course of business. If in a specific case exchanging of information between the areas
Buy: Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 15% (20% for shares with a high volatility risk) and are the most attractive stocks in our coverage universe on a 12 month horizon.
defined cannot be avoided, this fact has to be reported to the Compliance Officer, who will then take appropriate measures.
Hold: Hold stocks are expected to deliver a positive total return of up to 15% (20% for shares with a high volatility risk) within a 12-month period.
Due to its organisational structure Raiffeisen Centrobank has ensured that any improper influence on the way
Reduce: Reduce stocks are expected to achieve a negative total return up to -10% within a 12-month period. in which securities services are provided by Raiffeisen Centrobank is
Sell: Sell stocks are expected to post a negative total return of more than -10% within a 12-month period.
prevented. Raiffeisen Centrobank may have effected an own account transaction in any investment mentioned herein or related investments and or may have a position or holding in
such investments as a result. Raiffeisen Centrobank may have been, or might be, acting as a manager or co-manager of a public offering of any securities mentioned in this report or
Price targets are determined by the fair value derived from a peer group comparison and/or our DCF model. Other fundamental factors (M&A activities, capital markets transactions,
in any related security.
share buybacks, sector sentiment etc.) are taken into account as well. Upon the release of a research paper, investment ratings are determined by the ranges described above. Interim
Save as otherwise stated, the indicated prices are the last prices as available at 6.30 AM on the business day following the respective indicated date. Indicated prices refer to the stock
deviations from the above mentioned ranges will not cause a change in the recommendation automatically but will become subject to review.
exchange according to the Bloomberg/Reuters code stated.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities and neither this document nor ensure contained herein shall form the basis of any
This report has been prepared by Raiffeisen Centrobank for information purposes only. Maximum care has been taken to anythingthat the information contained herein is not
untrue, however, its complete accuracy or correctness cannot be guaranteed. This report is aimed solely at professional investors who are expected to make their own
contract or commitment whatsoever. Raiffeisen Centrobank is regulated by the Austrian Financial Markets Authority.
investment decisions without placing undue reliance on the information interpreted by Raiffeisen Centrobank, which under no circumstance accepts any responsibility for
consequences arising from the use of this report. This information may not be reproduced, transmitted or distributed (in whole or in part) by any other person. Unless
1. RCB or an affiliated company (individually or together) owns more than 5% of the issued share capital of the issuer.
otherwise stated, all views (including statements and forecasts) are solely those of Raiffeisen Centrobank and are subject to change without notice. Raiffeisen Centrobank has defined
2. The issuer owns more than 5% of the issued share capital of RCB or an affiliated company.
areas of confidentiality („Chinese Walls“) to ensure that passing on of confidential information is limited to the extent necessary in the ordinary course of business. If in a specific
3. RCB or an affiliated company acts as a market maker (or cannot be avoided, this fact has stabilizing manager of the securities of the issuer.
case exchanging of information between the areas defined specialist) or designated sponsor orto be reported to the Compliance Officer, who will then take appropriate measures.
4. RCB or an affiliated company was a manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities of the issuer within the last 12 months.
5. RCB or an affiliated company has agreed to render (and to receive compensation for) other investment banking services to the issuer within the last 12 months.
Due to its organisational structure Raiffeisen Centrobank has ensured that any improper influence on the way in which securities services are provided by Raiffeisen Centrobank is
6. The analyst owns securities of the issuer analysed by him.
prevented. Raiffeisen Centrobank may have effected an own account transaction in any investment mentioned herein or related investments and or may have a position or holding in
7. The analyst is on the Supervisory Board/Board of Directors of the issuer analysed by him.
such investments as a result. Raiffeisen Centrobank may have been, or might be, acting as a manager or co-manager of a public offering of any securities mentioned in this report or
8. The analyst has received or acquired securities of the issuer before launch of the public offering of such securities.
in any related security.
9. The remuneration of the analyst is linked to investment banking services rendered by RCB or an affiliated company.
Save as otherwise stated, the indicated prices are the last prices as available at 6.30 AM on the business day following the respective indicated date. Indicated prices refer to the stock
exchange according to the Bloomberg/Reuters code stated.
For disclosures please see www.rcb.at
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any
contract or commitment whatsoever. Raiffeisen Centrobank is regulated by the Austrian Financial Markets Authority.
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