2008 Election Primer
Steve Okun
Chairman
October 14, 2008
What Drive’s American Voters
Three indicators of the national political climate
have accurately predicted the outcomes of
presidential elections since the end of WWII:
• The incumbent president's approval rating at mid-
year;
• The growth rate of the economy during the second
quarter of the election year; and,
• The length of time the president's party has held
the White House.
Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball ’08, May 29, 2008
(source for 3 Electoral Barometer Slides)
Electoral Barometer Readings and
Election Results since World War II
Barometer Reading Year Election Result Popular Vote
Margin
82.5 1964 Won 22.6%
73.0 1972 Won 23.2%
71.0 1956 Won 15.4%
51.5 1984 Won 18.2%
43.5 1996 Won 8.5%
22.0 2000 Won* 0.5%
13.0 2004 Won 2.5%
9.0 1988 Won 7.7%
4.5 1948 Won 4.5%
2.0 1968 Lost -0.7%
-5.0 1960 Lost -0.2%
-5.0 1976 Lost -2.1%
-22.5 1992 Lost -5.6%
-49.5 1952 Lost -10.9%
-66.0 1980 Lost -9.7%
2008 Electoral Barometer
Barometer Reading Year Election Result Popular Vote
Margin
82.5 1964 Won 22.6%
73.0 1972 Won 23.2%
71.0 1956 Won 15.4%
51.5 1984 Won 18.2%
43.5 1996 Won 8.5%
22.0 2000 Won 0.5%
13.0 2004 Won 2.5%
9.0 1988 Won 7.7%
4.5 1948 Won 4.5%
2.0 1968 Lost -0.7%
-5.0 1960 Lost -0.2%
-5.0 1976 Lost -2.1%
-22.5 1992 Lost -5.6%
-49.5 1952 Lost -10.9%
-63.0 2008 ??? ???
-66.0 1980 Lost -9.7%
Dem. or Rep. Plurality in
Registration, 2000-08
FALL ’00 FALL ’04 SUMMER ’08
CO 160,551 R 177,508 R 73,634 R
FL 372,843 D 368,757 D 498,124 D
IA 24,648 R 4,402 R 94,255 D
NV 838 R 4,431 R 61,705 D
NH 77,549 R 38,746 R 5,932 R
NJ 303,191 D 278,423 D 652,210 D
NM 190,132 D 190,956 D 202,186 D
NC 822,661 D 677,641 D 762,643 D
OR 70,016 D 67,480 D 216,221 D
PA 485,540 D 580,208 D 1,136,387 D
Source: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, October 2008 Update
How the United States Elects Its President:
The Electoral College
Source: The National Journal
John Kerry’s 253 Electoral Votes
• CA-55 • CT-7
• NY-31 • OR-7
• IL-21 • HI-4
• PA-21 • NH-4
• MI-17 • RI-4
• NJ-15 • DC-3
• WA-11 • DE-3
• MD-10 • VT-3
• MN-10 • ME-1
• WI-10
Obama Needs Kerry +17
• FL-27 • (Bush 52)
• OH-20 • (Bush 51)
• VA-13 • (Bush 54)
• MO-11 • (Bush 53)
• CO-9 • (Bush 52)
• IA-7 • (Bush 50)
• NV-5 • (Bush 50)
• NM-5 • (Bush 50)
Latest “Battleground” Polls
http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html, October 13, 2008
VA-13 50.6-44.3 MI-17 49.1-41.3
FL-27 48.7-44.9 CO-9 49.3-45.3
OH-20 48.5-44.8 NM-5 49.8-42.5
PA-21 53.6-39.8 NV-5 49.2-46.3
NH-4 52.0-44.6 IA-7 52.8-41.0
Election Day Tips
• Keep in mind all Obama Needs is
Kerry plus Iowa, Nevada, New
Mexico and Colorado
• Any “early” Bush state in the Obama
column (Virginia, North Carolina or
Florida) should mean an Obama
victory.
• Higher turnout should help the
Democrats.
2008 Election Primer
Steve Okun
Chairman
American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore
October 14, 2008