2011 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference
Hog & Pork
Outlook
Louisville,
August 15-16
Ron Plain
D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/
Annual U.S. Pork Production, 1930-2011
Billion Pounds
25 actual 1.5% trend
20
15
10
2011 U.S. pork production
5
expected to be on trend
0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Cost of Production
$ per bushel
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Source: USDA/NASS
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Monthly, 1987-2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Corn, Average Price Received,
2008
2009
2010
2011
Cost of Slaughter Hog Production
Iowa State University Calculations, 1987-2011
$ Per Live Cwt
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Marketing Month
Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University
Corn Price & Cost of Hog Production
Monthly, 1987-2011
70 7
Hog Cost
65
Corn $ 6
60
5
55
50 4
45 3
40
2
35
1
30
25 0
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University
Corn Price & Cost of Hog Production
Monthly, 1987-2011
70 7
Hog Cost
65
Corn $ 6
60
5
55
50 4
45 3
40
2
35
1
30 $6.70 corn implies hog cost at $68/cwt live or $89/cwt car.
25 0
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1997-2011
$ Per Head Iowa State University Calculations
50
30
10
-10
-30
-50
-70
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
Monthly Profit Per Pig
Dollars 1997-02 2007-11
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
97&07
98&08
99&09
00&10
01&11
02&12
Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
Correlation of Profit & Lagged Hog Slght
20
%ChDaHogSlt Lag 5 Qtr Profit
10
0
-10
-20
82-1
84-1
86-1
88-1
90-1
92-1
94-1
96-1
98-1
00-1
02-1
04-1
06-1
08-1
10-1
International Trade
U.S. Meat Exports, 2000-2011
800000
700000 Beef Pork Broiler Turkey
Tthousand pounds
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jul Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
00 01 02 03 04 Jan- Jan- 07 08 09 10 11
05 06
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports
5,000
4,500 Imports Exports
4,000
3,500
Million Pounds
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, 2000-2011
Mil. lbs. Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
600
500 Imports Exports
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 11
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-10
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork
Production, 2006-2011
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
30
25
% of Production
20
15
10 Imports Exports
5
0
Oct
Oct
OCT
OCT
OCT
Jan 06
JUL
Jan 07
JUL
Jan 08
JUL
Jan 09
Apr
APR
APR
APR
Jul
Jan 10
Apr
Jul
Jan 11
Apr
U.S. Pork Exports, 2006-2011
Mil. lbs. Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
160
Japan Canada Mexico
140
Russia S Korea China HK
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Frozen Pork & U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2011
700
600
500
Million pounds
400
300
200
100 Cold Storage Exports
0
Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Head per mo.
U.S. Hog Imports from Canada
800,000
Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Meat Demand
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
Pounds
Pork Beef Broilers Turkey Fish
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: USDA/ERS
Pounds U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: USDA/ERS
Grains, Feed and Residual
Bil. Bushels
8
7
DDGS
6
5 Wheat
4 Oats
3
Barley
2
Sorghum
1
Corn
0
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Forecast Change in Meat Production
--Percent Change--
Type 2010-11 2011-12
Beef - 0.7% - 4.3%
Pork +1.0% +1.6%
Chicken +1.3% +1.0%
Turkey +2.4% +0.4%
All Meats +0.7% - 0.4%
Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, August 2011
Change in Retail Meat Demand
Base Elasticity = - 0.75
% change from
year ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
2007>
2008>
2009>
2010>
2011>
2002 >
2005 >
2006 >
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
2003
2004
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Change in Pork Demand
% change from Base Elasticity = - 0.75
year ago
8
3
-2
-7
-12
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
2007>
2008>
2009>
2010>
2011>
2002 >
2005 >
2006 >
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
2003
2004
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Change in Pork Export Demand
Base Elasticity = - 0.5
% change from
year ago
110
90
70
50
30
10
-10
-30
-50
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
2007>
2008>
2009>
2010>
2011>
2002 >
2005 >
2006 >
2003 >
2004 >
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Change in Hog Demand
Base Elasticity = - 0.2
% change from
year ago
18
13
8
3
-2
-7
-12
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
2007>
2008>
2009>
2010>
2011>
2002 >
2005 >
2006 >
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
2003
2004
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
250
300
350
400
450
500
2001 > Cents/lb
May
Sep
2002 >
May
Sep
2003 >
May
Sep
Source: USDA/ERS
2004 >
May
Sep
2005 >
May
Bacon
Sep
2006 >
May
Sep
2007 >
May
Chops
Sep
2008 >
May
Retail Prices, Monthly, 2001-2011
Sep
Ham
Retail Boneless Pork Prices
2009 >
May
Sep
2010 >
May
Sep
2011 >
May
Percent Change
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-10
05-1
05-3
06-1
06-3
07-1
07-3
08-1
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
08-3
09-1
09-3
10-1
Growth in Real GDP
10-3
11-1
U.S. Unemployment Rate,
Seasonally Adjusted, 1996-2011
11
10
9
8
Percent
7
6
5
4
3
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Duration of Unemployment
Current Situation
• The government is broke, unemployment
is high, the stock market has collapsed,
the economy is barely growing, and
consumer confidence is the lowest since
May 1980.
• Needless to say, this is not good for
domestic meat demand.
Inventory Surveys
Thousand Head
D
ec
5700
5800
5900
6000
6100
6200
99
6300
D
ec
00
D
ec
01
D
ec
02
D
ec
03
D
ec
04
D
ec
05
D
ec
06
D
ec
07
D
ec
08
D
ec
U.S. Swine Breeding Herd, 1999-2011
09
D
ec
10
Canadian Swine Breeding Herd, 2000-2011
1700
1650
1600
Thousand Head
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Hog Inventory Reports
U.S. June Canada April
All Hogs & Pigs 100.5 101.4
Kept for Breeding 100.3 99.6
Kept for Marketing 100.6 101.6
Under 50 lbs 100.1 101.3
50-119 lbs. 99.8 99.5
120-179 lbs. 103.3 104.0
180 lbs. and over 99.5
Sep-Nov Farrowings 98.8 98.6
Dec-Feb Farrowings 99.4 97.9
Mar-May Farrowings 98.2 100.7
Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions 97.4 99.8
Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions 98.9
Hog Inventory Reports
U.S. June Canada April
All Hogs & Pigs 100.5 101.4
Kept for Breeding 100.3 99.6
Kept for Marketing 100.6 101.6
Which is
Under 50 lbs important? 100.1 101.3
50-119 lbs. More sows or 99.8 99.5
120-179 lbs. fewer litters? 103.3 104.0
180 lbs. and over 99.5
Sep-Nov Farrowings 98.8 98.6
Dec-Feb Farrowings 99.4 97.9
Mar-May Farrowings 98.2 100.7
Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions 97.4 99.8
Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions 98.9
Daily Hog Slaughter by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
DJF99
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
yr. ago
DJF99
% change from
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
Breeding Herd by Quarter
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
Hog Slaughter & Breeding Herd by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8 Br Herd D Hog Slt
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8 Correlation = 0.20
-10
DJF99
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
DJF99 yr. ago
% change from
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
Sows Farrowed by Quarter
DJF10
DJF11
Sows Farrowed & Hog Slaughter by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8 Sows Far D Hog Slt
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8 Correlation = 0.78
-10
DJF99
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
-6
-4
-2
10
0
2
4
6
8
DJF99
% change
from yr. ago
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
U.S. Sows Farrowed by Quarter
DJF11
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
JFM99
% change
from yr. ago
JFM00
JFM01
JFM02
JFM03
JFM04
JFM05
JFM06
JFM07
JFM08
JFM09
JFM10
JFM11
Canada Sows Farrowed by Quarter
Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined
% change
from yr. ago
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
DJF99
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
Slaughter
Thousand
Head
Weekly F.I. Sow Slaughter
70 2010 2011
65
60
55
50
45
2011 sow slaughter is down 0.2%
40
Y
R
N
UG
T
PR
V
P
B
N
L
EC
A
C
JA
JU
A
SE
O
FE
JU
M
O
M
A
A
N
D
Source: USDA/AMS
Thousand
Head
Slaughter of U.S. Sows
60
2010 2011
55
50
45
40
2011 slaughter of U.S. sows is up 2.8%
35
Y
R
N
UG
T
PR
V
P
B
N
L
EC
A
C
JA
JU
A
SE
O
FE
JU
M
O
M
A
A
N
D
Source: USDA/AMS
Weekly Slaughter of U.S. Sows
1.1
1.0
% of Inventory
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6 2010 2011
0.5
Y
R
N
UG
T
PR
V
P
B
N
L
EC
A
C
JA
JU
A
SE
O
FE
JU
M
O
M
A
A
N
D
Source: USDA/AMS & Ron Plain
Estimated Gilt Retention & Sow Loss, 2010-11
GG Cattle & Hog Fax
120
Thousand Head Per Week
100
80
60
40
Gilts Retained
20 Sow Loss
0
Aug
Nov
Apr
Apr
Oct
Jul
Jul
Feb
Jun
Sep
Dec
Feb
Jun
2010
2011
May
May
Mar
Mar
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Weekly Hog Slaughter
Millions
2.5
2.4 2009 2010 2011
2.3
2.2
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
1.7
C
T
N
B
N
L
G
R
AY
V
P
AR
C
JU
SE
DE
FE
JA
JU
NO
AP
AU
O
M
M
Source: USDA/AMS
Actual & Predicted Change in B&G Slaughter
U.S. Weekly F.I. Hog Slaughter, 2011
% change from
yr. ago 8
Actual USDA Jun Forecast
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
May
Mar
Jul
Apr
Oct
Aug
Feb
Jun
Sep
Nov
Dec
2011
Hog Slaughter Plant Closings
• February 2000 AVA Pork-Shamokin, PA
• June 2000 Farmland-Dubuque, IA
• July 2001 Excel-Marshall, MO
• December 2001 AMPAC/Iowa Pork-Chicago, IL
• January 2003 Hormel-Rochelle, IL
• May 2004 RC Pork-Downs, KS
• September 2005 Smithfield-Smithfield, VA
• March 2006 Bryan Foods-West Point, MS
• January 2009 Meadowbrook-Rantoul, IL
• April 2010 Morrell-Sioux City, IA
Triumph plans to build in East Moline, someday
$/head Gross Hog Packing Margin
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Ron Plain
Weekly Gross Pork Packer Margin, 200
Pound Carcass
60
50
40
$ per Head
30
20
10
Avg 02-09 2010 2011
0
JAN APR JUL OCT
Calculation: Byproduct + Cutout – Negotiated net
Productivity Growth
U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Quarter
% change
from yr. ago
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
DJF99
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
Barrow & Gilt Live Weights
Iowa-Minnesota Weekly Average
Pounds
277
275 2008
273
2009
271
269 2010
267
265 2011
263
261
259
257
AY
N
AR
G
L
T
R
C
V
P
B
N
JU
C
JA
NO
SE
AP
DE
AU
FE
JU
M
O
M
Source: USDA/AMS
Barrow & Gilt Live Weights
Pounds Iowa-Minnesota Annual Average
280
270 Actual Trend
260
250
240
230
220
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Weekly Pork Production
500
480
460
440
Million Pounds
420
400
380
360
340
320 2002-09 2010 2011
300
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Source: USDA AMS
Prices
Cents Per Pound
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
Jan 00
Jan 01
Jan 02
Jan 03
Jan 04
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2011
Jan 10
Jan 11
Retail Pork Prices
2000-08 2009 2010 2011
350
340
330
320
Cents/pound
310
Record high
300
290
280
270
260
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: BLS & USDA/ERS
Hog Cutout Value, Weekly
$ per cwt.
115
110
105
100
Avg.
95
2004-08
90
2009
85
80 2010
75
70 2011
65
60
55
50
45
N
T
PR
L
C
JA
JU
O
A
Source: USDA/AMS
Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Base Price
$/cwt
2002-09 2010 2011
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: USDA Prior Day Slaughter reports
National Base Slaughter Hog Price,
$ per cwt. Weekly
105
100
95
90 Avg.
85 2004-08
2009
80
75 2010
70
2011
65
60
55
50
45
N
T
PR
L
C
JA
JU
O
A
Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports
10# Early Weaned Pigs, Delivered,
$ per head Weekly
60
55
50
Avg.
45 2004-08
40 2009
35 2010
30
2011
25
20
15
10
N
T
PR
L
C
JA
JU
O
A
Source: USDA/AMS
Pork Cutout and Hog Price, Weekly, 2009-2011
120
Cutout
110
Carcass
100
$/cwt
90
80
70
60
50
Apr
Apr
Apr
Oct
Oct
Jul
Jul
2009
2010
2011
Source: USDA/AMS
Hog Base Price as Percent of Pork Cutout, Weekly,
2008-2011
110
105
100
Percent
95
90
85
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: USDA/AMS
My Forecast
Commercial Hog Slaughter Forecast
Million Head
------Change------
2010 2011 2012
10-11 11-12.
Qtr 1 27.630* 27.486* 27.450 - 0.5% - 0.1%
+ 0.2% +0.7%
Qtr 2 26.074* 26.113* 26.300
Qtr 3 26.930* 27.250 27.100 + 1.2% - 0.5%
Qtr 4 29.626* 29.250 29.980 - 1.3% +2.5%
Year 110.260* 110.099 110.830 - 0.1% +0.7%
Note: Q1 10 & Q4 11 & Q3 12 have only 63 slaughter days
*actual
Iowa-Minn Hog Price Forecast
Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight
2009 2010 2011 2012
Qtr 1 $57.23* $66.81* $78.95* $80-84
Qtr 2 $57.32* $79.04* $91.80* $87-91
Qtr 3 $51.43* $79.44* $95-98 $86-90
Qtr 4 $54.98* $65.20* $80-84 $76-80
Year $55.23* $72.67* $86-88 $82-85
*actual price – prior day purchased
Iowa-Minn Live Hog Price Forecast
Negotiated Live Base Price Equivalent
2009 2010 2011 2012
Qtr 1 $43.49* $50.78* $60.00* $61-64
Qtr 2 $43.56* $60.07* $69.77* $66-69
Qtr 3 $39.09* $60.37* $72-75 $65-68
Qtr 4 $41.78* $49.56* $61-64 $58-61
Year $41.97* $55.19* $66-68 $62-65
*actual carcass price x 76%
U.S. Hog Net Carcass Price,
Monthly Average, 2002-2011
120
110 Cash Futures
100
Dollars Per Cwt
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan 02
Jan 03
Jan 04
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Thru Feb 2013 all hog futures contracts are above $80 per cwt
Major Uncertainties
• Domestic meat demand
• Exchange rates & exports
• Feed costs
• Governmental policy
– Bio fuels
– GIPSA
– Animal rights
Any Questions?
Omaha Corn Prices, Weekly, 2008-2011
8
7
6
$/Bushel
5
4
3
2
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: USDA/AMS
Frozen Pork, 2000-2011, Start of the Month
700
650
600
Million Pounds
550
500
450
400
350
300
Jan JUL Jan JUL Jan JUL Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2011
Mil. lbs. Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan-10
Jan 11
% Change Year Ago
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
2002
Apr
Jul
Oct
2003
Apr
Jul
Oct
2004
Apr
Jul
Oct
2005
Apr
Jul
Oct
2006
Apr
Jul
Oct
2007
Apr
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Jul
Oct
Base Elasticity = -0.75
2008
Apr
Jul
Oct
2009
Apr
Jul
Oct
2010
Apr
Jul
Change in Domestic Beef Demand
Oct
2011
Apr
Sows Farrowed & Breeding Herd by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8 Sows Far Br Herd
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
DJF99
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
Sows Farrowed, Breeding Herd & Hog
Slaughter by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8 Sows Far Br Herd D Hog Slt
-10
DJF99
DJF00
DJF01
DJF02
DJF03
DJF04
DJF05
DJF06
DJF07
DJF08
DJF09
DJF10
DJF11
Thousand Head
D
ec
5700
5800
5900
6000
6100
6200
99
6300
D
ec
00
D
ec
01
D
ec
02
D
ec
03
D
ec
04
D
ec
05
D
ec
06
D
ec
07
D
ec
08
D
ec
U.S. Swine Breeding Herd, 1999-2011
09
D
ec
10
Thousand Head
M
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
ar 3300
00
M
ar
01
M
ar
02
M
ar
03
M
ar
04
M
ar
05
M
ar
06
M
AM
07
M
AM
08
M
U.S. Sows Farrowed, 2000-11
AM
09
M
AM
10
M
AM
11
Barrow & Gilt Carcass Weights
Pounds U.S. Annual Average
210
205
200 Actual Trend
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Live Price
$/cwt
80 2004-07 2008 2009 2010 2011
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports
MPR Negotiated Carcass Hog Prices, WCB
minus ECB, Weekly, 2009-10
$/cwt
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
May
May
Sep
Sep
Feb
Feb
Apr
Apr
Mar
Mar
Nov
Nov
2009
Dec
2010
Dec
Oct
Oct
Aug
Aug
Jul
Jul
Jun
Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Purchased Jun
U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-May 2011
Change From Year Ago
Country 000 lbs Percent
Japan 80,639 14.8%
Mexico 10,799 2.6%
S. Korea 157,270 147.3%
Canada 18,135 10.4%
China & HongKong 49,624 37.4%
Australia 17,748 25.6%
Russia 39,504 125.3%
TOTAL 315,257 17.9%
Source: USDA/ERS
U.S. Hog Imports & Exports
Mil. head
12
Imports Exports
10
8 2010 hog imports were down 10%
6
4
2
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Pounds U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: USDA/ERS