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Chapter 8 8-1 STOCKS AND THEIR VALUATION Common Stock Valuation Some Features of Common and Preferred Stocks The Stock Markets Efficient Markets Stock Indexes – see chapter 12 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-2 Key Concepts and Skills Understand how stock prices depend on future dividends and dividend growth Be able to compute stock prices using the dividend growth model Understand how corporate directors are elected Understand how stock markets work Understand how stock prices are quoted BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-3 Facts about Common Stock: Represents ownership. Ownership implies control. Stockholders elect directors. Directors elect management. Management’s goal: Maximize stock price. Piece of paper entitles owner to dividends - if company earns profit & decides to pay dividends - not like bond with contract - promise to pay interest - or DEFAULT can be sold at future date - hopefully for a capital gain hence price of common stock is the present value of those expected cash flows preemptive right - shareholders can purchase additional shares - so less dilution & maintain control Voting rights BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-4 Advantages of Financing with Stock: No required fixed payments. No maturity. Improves debt ratio, fixed charge coverage. if prospects look bright, comm. stock can be sold on better terms than debt finance with common stock during good times to maintain reserve borrowing capacity BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-5 Disadvantages of Financing with Stock: Controlling shareholders may lose some control. Future earnings shared with new stockholders. Dilution. Higher flotation costs vs. debt. Higher component cost of capital. Too little debt may encourage a takeover bid. taxation - dividends doubly taxed BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-6 Cash Flows for Stockholders If you buy a share of stock, you can receive cash in two ways The company pays dividends You sell your shares, either to another investor in the market or back to the company As with bonds, the price of the stock is the present value of these expected cash flows BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-7 Dividend Characteristics Dividends are not a liability of the firm until a dividend has been declared by the Board Consequently, a firm cannot go bankrupt for not declaring dividends Dividends and Taxes Dividend payments are not considered a business expense, therefore, they are not tax deductible Dividends received by individuals are taxed as ordinary income but at a maximum of 15% since tax changes of 2003 Dividends received by corporations have a minimum 70% exclusion from taxable income BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-8 Financial asset values: 0 1 2 n R Value CF1 CF2 CFn CF1 CF2 CFn PV = ... + 1 + R 1 R 1 2 1 + R n BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 9 8-9 One Period Example Suppose you are thinking of purchasing the stock of Moore Oil, Inc. and you expect it to pay a $2 dividend in one year and you believe that you can sell the stock for $14 at that time. If you require a return of 20% on investments of this risk, what is the maximum you would be willing to pay? Compute the PV of the expected cash flows Price = (14 + 2) / (1.2) = $13.33 Or FV = 16; I/Y = 20; N = 1; CPT PV = -13.33 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-10 Two Period Example Now what if you decide to hold the stock for two years? In addition to the dividend in one year, you expect a dividend of $2.10 in and a stock price of $14.70 at the end of year 2. Now how much would you be willing to pay? PV = 2 / (1.2) + (2.10 + 14.70) / (1.2)2 = 13.33 Or CF0 = 0; C01 = 2; F01 = 1; C02 = 16.80; F02 = 1; NPV; I = 20; CPT NPV = 13.33 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-11 Three Period Example Finally, what if you decide to hold the stock for three periods? In addition to the dividends at the end of years 1 and 2, you expect to receive a dividend of $2.205 at the end of year 3 and a stock price of $15.435. Now how much would you be willing to pay? PV = 2 / 1.2 + 2.10 / (1.2)2 + (2.205 + 15.435) / (1.2)3 = 13.33 Or CF0 = 0; C01 = 2; F01 = 1; C02 = 2.10; F02 = 1; C03 = 17.64; F03 = 1; NPV; I = 20; CPT NPV = 13.33 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-12 Developing The Model You could continue to push back when you would sell the stock You would find that the price of the stock is really just the present value of all expected future dividends So, how can we estimate all future dividend payments? BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-13 Estimating Dividends: Special Cases Constant dividend The firm will pay a constant dividend forever This is like preferred stock The price is computed using the perpetuity formula Constant dividend growth The firm will increase the dividend by a constant percent every period Supernormal growth Dividend growth is not consistent initially, but settles down to constant growth eventually BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-14 Zero Growth If dividends are expected at regular intervals forever, then this is like preferred stock and is valued as a perpetuity P0 = D / R Suppose stock is expected to pay a $0.50 dividend every quarter and the required return is 10% with quarterly compounding. What is the price? P0 = .50 / (.1 / 4) = .50/.025 = $20.00 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-15 For a constant growth stock, D 1 D 0 1 g 1 D 2 D 0 1 g 2 D t D 0 1 g t If g is constant, then: ˆ D0 1 g D1 P0 R g Rs g BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-16 Dividend Growth Model Dividends are expected to grow at a constant percent per period. P0 = D1 /(1+R) + D2 /(1+R)2 + D3 /(1+R)3 + … P0 = D0(1+g)/(1+R) + D0(1+g)2/(1+R)2 + D0(1+g)3/(1+R)3 + … With a little algebra, this reduces to: D0 (1 g) D1 P0 R -g R -g BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-17 If Rs< g, get negative stock price, which is nonsense. We can’t use model unless (1) Rs> g and (2) g is expected $ to be constant forever. D t D 0 1 g t Dt 0.25 PVDt R 1 t ^ P PVDt 0 If g > R, P0 ! 0 Years (t) BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-18 DGM – Example 1 Suppose Big D, Inc. just paid a dividend of $.50. It is expected to increase its dividend by 2% per year. If the market requires a return of 15% on assets of this risk, how much should the stock be selling for? P0 = .50(1+.02) / (.15 - .02) = $3.92 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-19 DGM – Example 2 Suppose TB Pirates, Inc. is expected to pay a $2 dividend in one year. If the dividend is expected to grow at 5% per year and the required return is 20%, what is the price? P0 = 2 / (.2 - .05) = $13.33 Why isn’t the $2 in the numerator multiplied by (1.05) in this example? BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-20 Stock Price Sensitivity to Dividend Growth, g 250 D1 = $2; R = 20% 200 Stock Price 150 100 50 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 Growth Rate BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-21 Stock Price Sensitivity to Required Return, R 250 D1 = $2; g = 5% 200 Stock Price 150 100 50 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 Growth Rate BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-22 Example 8.3 Gordon Growth Company - I Gordon Growth Company is expected to pay a dividend of $4 next period and dividends are expected to grow at 6% per year. The required return is 16%. What is the current price? P0 = 4 / (.16 - .06) = $40 Remember that we already have the dividend expected next year, so we don’t multiply the dividend by 1+g What is Do? Do = D1/(1.06) = 4/1.06= 3.77 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-23 Example 8.3 – Gordon Growth Company - II What is the price expected to be in year 4? P4 = D4(1 + g) / (R – g) = D5 / (R – g) P4 = 3.77(1+.06)5 / (.16 - .06) = 50.50 = P4 = (3.77)(1.34) / (.16 - .06) = 50.50 P4 = 5.05 / (.16 - .06) = 50.50 P4 = 4(1+.06)4 / (.16 - .06) = 50.50 What is the implied return given the change in price during the four year period? 50.50 = 40(1+return)4; return = 6% PV = -40; FV = 50.50; N = 4; CPT I/Y = 6% The price grows at the same rate as the dividends BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-24 Nonconstant Growth Problem Statement Suppose a firm is expected to increase dividends by 20% in one year and by 15% in two years. After that dividends will increase at a rate of 5% per year indefinitely. If the last dividend was $1 and the required return is 20%, what is the price of the stock? Remember that we have to find the PV of all expected future dividends. BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-25 Nonconstant Growth – Example Solution Compute the dividends until growth levels off D1 = 1(1.2) = $1.20 D2 = 1.20(1.15) = $1.38 D3 = 1.38(1.05) = $1.449 Find the expected future price P2 = D3 / (R – g) = 1.449 / (.2 - .05) = 9.66 Find the present value of the expected future cash flows P0 = 1.20 / (1.2) + (1.38 + 9.66) / (1.2)2 = 8.67 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-26 Quick Quiz – Part I What is the value of a stock that is expected to pay a constant dividend of $2 per year if the required return is 15%? What if the company starts increasing dividends by 3% per year, beginning with the next dividend? The required return stays at 15%. BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-27 Using the DGM to Find R Start with the DGM: D 0 (1 g) D1 P0 R -g R -g rearrange and solve for R D 0 (1 g) D1 R g g P0 P0 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-28 Finding the Required Return - Example Suppose a firm’s stock is selling for $10.50. They just paid a $1 dividend and dividends are expected to grow at 5% per year. What is the required return? R = [1(1.05)/10.50] + .05 = 15% What is the dividend yield? 1(1.05) / 10.50 = 10% What is the capital gains yield? g =5% BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-29 Table 8.1 - Summary of Stock Valuation BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-30 Stock Market Dealers vs. Brokers New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Largest stock market in the world Members • Own seats on the exchange • Commission brokers • Specialists • Floor brokers • Floor traders Operations Floor activity BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-31 NASDAQ Not a physical exchange – computer based quotation system Multiple market makers Electronic Communications Networks Three levels of information Level 1 – median quotes, registered representatives Level 2 – view quotes, brokers & dealers Level 3 – view and update quotes, dealers only Large portion of technology stocks BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-32 Work the Web Example Electronic Communications Networks provide trading in NASDAQ securities The Island allows the public to view the “order book” in real time Click on the web surfer and visit The Island! BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-33 Reading Stock Quotes Sample Quote -3.3 33.25 20.75 Harris HRS .20 .7 87 3358 29.60 +0.50 What information is provided in the stock quote? Click on the web surfer to go to CNBC for current stock quotes. BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-34 Quick Quiz – Part II You observe a stock price of $18.75. You expect a dividend growth rate of 5% and the most recent dividend was $1.50. What is the required return? What are some of the major characteristics of common stock? What are some of the major characteristics of preferred stock? BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss Holders of Corporate Equity Securities 8-35 (June 30, 1995) HOLDER AMOUNT PERCENTAGE ($IN BILLIONS) OF TOTAL Households $3,714 50.2 Pension Funds 1,817 24.6 Mutual Funds 965 13.1 Foreign Investors 339 4.6 Insurance 278 3.8 Companies Bank Personal Trusts 197 2.7 Other 83 1.1 Total 7,393 100.0 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss Holders of Corporate Equity Securities 8-36 (September 30, 1998) HOLDER AMOUNT PERCENTAGE ($IN OF TOTAL BILLIONS) Households $5,349 41.9 Pension Funds 3,059 24.0 Mutual Funds 2,029 15.9 Foreign Investors 934 7.3 Insurance Companies 765 6.0 Bank Personal Trusts 433 3.4 Other 189 1.5 Total $12,758 100.0 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-37 Different Approaches for Valuing Common Stock Dividend growth model Free cash flow method Using the multiples of comparable firms BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss some stock market index values 3/24/03 & 10/26/99 8-38 DJIA 3/24/03 8214.68 - 307.29 -3.61% S& P 500 864.23 - 31.56 -3.52% NASDAQ comp 1369.78 - 52.02 -3.66% Russell 2000 367.25 - 2.39 -2.39% NYSE comp. 4801.58 -129.36 -3.41% Wilshire 5000 8180.45 -282.87 -3.34% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DJIA 10/26/99 10349.93 - 120.32 - 1.15% S& P 500 1293.63 - 6.69 - 8.02% NASDAQ comp 2815.95 - 0.57 - 0.02% Russell 2000 417.76 - 0.93 - 0.22% NYSE comp. 597.31 - 3.85 - 0.64% Wilshire 5000 11825.20 - 50.00 - 0.42% BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss 8-39 Stocks in DJIA as of 11/1/99 Company market value in billions Microsoft $486.19 General Electric 416.79 Intel Corp. 253.50 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 237.17 Merck & Co., Inc. 183.98 Exxon Corp. 175.42 IBM Corp. 172.88 Citigroup 169.50 Johnson & Johnson 141.84 AT&T Corp 141.81 Coca Cola 138.74 Proctor & Gamble 131.32 Home Depot 109.19 SBC Communication 90.25 Hewlett Packard 78.58 BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss Stocks in DJIA as of 11/1/99 8-40 Company market value in billions DuPont $ 66.89 American Express 65.40 Philip Morris Co. 61.55 Walt Disney Co. 53.88 McDonald’s Corp. 53.60 Boeing Co. 43.16 General Motors Corp. 42.72 Minnesota Mining & Mfg. 38.02 Allied Signal Inc. 28.82 United Technologies Corp. 26.87 ALCOA Inc. 23.01 Eastman Kodak 21.62 JP Morgan & Co. 21.60 International Paper 20.16 Caterpillar Inc. 19.58 in 1999 - 27% mfg., 33% consumer, 27% technology, 10% financial, 3% BMGT440 Ch. 8. Dr. E.F.Kiss energy; in 1979 57% mfg., 23% consumer, 10% technology/, 10% energy