ESA Activities in Space
Weather
A. Glover1, E. Daly1, R. Marsden2
1. Space Environments and Effects Section,
D/TEC,ESA/ESTEC.
2. Research and Scientific Support Department
D/Sci,ESA/ESTEC
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Overview
• Background and Scope within ESA
» D/TEC, D/Sci, D/HME, D/Ops, D/EOP, Galileo
• Space Weather Applications Initiative
» SWENET Status and Achievements
• Space Situational Awareness
• Related Activities – SEENoTC
• Next Steps
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Space Weather
Definition: "conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere,
ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and
reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and
can endanger human life or health."
• Some Space Weather Effects..
• Satellites affected by radiation,
plasma, atmosphere, particulates;
• Astronauts - ISS, future
exploration missions;
• Radiation hazards to air crew and
avionics;
• Ground power outages from
currents induced in lines;
• Disruption to communications
relying on the ionosphere;
• Disruption of navigation satellite
signals (GPS - Galileo);
• Prospecting;
• Climate;
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Space Weather Interests within
ESA
• ESA is interested in space weather as both a
provider and user of space weather data
• Pre-mission space environment analysis and
recommendations for operational procedures
carried out at ESTEC (D/TEC)
• Operational use of space weather data and
services in support of ESA missions at ESOC &
ESAC (D/Ops) with ESTEC support
• New data generated by ESA missions, either as
primary goal or in the form of radiation monitor
data
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Science Missions Supporting
Space Weather Interests
• SOHO extension to 2009, plus bonus
mission
• Cluster extension until 2008
• Double star extended to 2007
Radiation Monitors onboard XMM, Integral
and Rosetta • Ulysses, 3rd polar pass extension
Ulysses
spacecraft also provide valuable
the 2008
Information on until local space environment
Soho Cluster & Double Star
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Upcoming Missions
• Solar Orbiter (2015)
• BepiColombo (2013)
• Cross-Scale Multiscale Coupling in Space
Plasmas mission selected by SSAC Oct ‘07
as Cosmic Vision candidate mission
• Proba 2 (2008) SWAP and LYRA payloads
Radiation
monitors:
Herschel,
Planck, LPF
…
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Earth Observation
• SWARM: Magnetic Field Mission (launch:
2010-2011, lifetime 5yrs)
– Core dynamics and geodynamo
processes
– 3-D electrical conductivity of the mantle
– Aims to monitor and separate the various
contributions to the Earth’s magnetic field
including disturbances:
– Magnetospheric and ionospheric currents
– Electromagnetic forcing of the upper
atmosphere
• MetOp
– Carries SEM-2 radiation monitor
– Inclined sun synchronous orbit, 817km
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Galileo
• Radiation environment will be harsh as the
constellation will fly through the heart of the
radiation belts
• Signal propagation effects caused by the
ionosphere
• Giove-A radiation environment monitors
– Merlin, CEDEX
– energetic proton and ion detectors, an
internal charging monitor, RADFETs and
experimental dose-rate photodiodes
• Giove-B (launch 2008) will carry SREM
environment monitor
• Galileo IOV will carry radiation monitors
• Full constellation still tbc
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Manned Spaceflight
• Support to ISS
– Ops collaboration between EAC and NASA/JSC
– DESIRE R&D project to characterise environment
in Columbus module
• Study of radiation environment key driver in
development of exploration missions
• R and D studies looking towards radiation
protection for exploration
– REMSIM: Radiation Exposure and Mission
Strategies for Interplanetary Manned Missions
– SEPEM: Improved statistical models and
new physics-based modelling of the helio-radial
variation
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
The ESA Space Weather
Applications Initiative
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
• 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather
• 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in
Europe
• 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop
• 1999-2001: Feasibility studies of Space Weather
Programme
• 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team
(SWWT)
• 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA
management
• 2001: Start preparation of ESA-SWAPP, COST724
• 2003: ESA SWAPP starts
• 2003: COST 724 starts
• 2004: First European Space Weather Week
• 2007: Where we stand now
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
The Space Weather
Applications Pilot Project
– Sample the market for space weather services
– Development of a range of individual pilot
services (SDAs) built on user requirements plus
a supporting network structure and portal.
– ~5MEuro investment (2MEuro from ESA/GSP)
– Questions: users?, valuable services?, need for
specific space elements?, value of coordinated
approach?, organisational requirements…?
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Service Demonstration: SWENET
Independent
Cost and
Benefit
Ionospheric Effects: Assessment
12 SDAs…
SWENET:
Ground Effects: Network and
12 SDAs…
support
architecture
Spacecraft & Aircraft Effects: for SDAs
6 SDAs…
Space Weather European NETwork
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Infrastructure Capabilities
• Centralised access to a wide range of user driven
space weather services and data
– Central access point to the pilot project SDAs
– Large data repository
– Capability to search and combine data from different
sources
– Graphical display and data analysis tools
– Overview of the latest SDA data and space weather indices
– Daily reports, alerts and data sets via email
Industry
National Agencies
Approximate distribution of Public & Tourism
Scientific Institutes
active users:
Security
http://www.esa-spaceweather.net/swenet
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
SWENET Perspective
• ESA/GSP support for service development concluded 2006
• Majority of SDA services have identified funding for service
continuation to 2008 + ..
• SWENET Portal maintenance and validation phase continuing
– Inclusion of new SDAs
– Validation of new data and services: demonstration of added value
– Improvement of data analysis via portal capabilities
– Consultation with SDA community on future requirements
• Usage statistics (Based on Jan – Jul 2007):
– 4000 visitors/month
– 50,000 pages served (not including search engines)
• SDA community continue to meet and collaborate. Next SWENET
meeting Splinter 1 this afternoon
• Coordination with national activities and other groups e.g. ISES,
COST 724, COST 296, NOAA/SEC (now SWPC), ILWS End Users
Task Group…
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Benefit Data By Industry
• Growth indicated by industry
– note airlines included in ionospheric &
consequently strong increase in benefit when
automated landing taken up
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Net Benefit Trends
LoS1: relies on continued GB
Networks and provides mainly
Nowcasts.
LoS3: Has low external
Dependencies, is more costly,
Provides forecasts and
Ultimately larger benefits.
LoS2: Potentially high benefits
But also high risks.
Permanent hitch-hiker solution
c.f. GOES/SEM Arrangement
could reduce
risks
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Strategic Issues
• impacts of SW on Europe’s strategic space assets
(Galileo, GMES, telecoms EO..)
• impacts of SW on European space infrastructure
(launch, environment monitoring (including situational
awareness), manned spaceflight)
• impacts on social infrastructure and economy (energy
supply and distribution, emergency relief systems)
• Security issues (HF comms and radar)
• ….
These benefits difficult to quantify but report notes space
weather services have both potential economic and
strategic benefit for Europe
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Space Situational Awareness
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Framework/Context
Space Situation Awareness is a concept that
has grown out of the increasing dependence
of the modern world on space systems –
telecom, navigation, surveillance, etc.
Concept originates with US military – but civilian
systems (particularly in Europe) are just as
susceptible – Europe needs to develop both
policy and capacity.
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Motivation for action on Space Weather
• Recent initiatives have revealed both space weather needs and skills
bases in Europe
• Development of a more coordinated European approach could be used
to strengthen international cooperation & exchange on basis of
partnership.
• At the same time there is a perceived need to build a European
framework in the context of Space Situational Awareness.
• Space weather is seen as one of three axes for Space Situational
Awareness :
– Survey, Tracking,
– Imaging
– Space weather (space environment monitoring)
At present it is proposed to introduce at the next ESA Ministerial Council
an ESA Optional Programme for Space Situational Awareness which
may include an element of space weather
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Possible Content
• Develop an ESA-led space weather initiative, including
the establishment of a European Centre for Space
Weather Services as part of an optional Space
Situational Awareness programme
• The initiative would aim to:
– Provide a focal point for coordinating ongoing European activities
of the kind initiated in the framework of the Space Weather
Applications Pilot Project and SWENET
– Provide a stable nucleus for the development, testing and
deployment of future space weather services in Europe
• Proposal in preparation
• Ongoing community consultation process
– See splinter meeting on Wednesday afternoon 14:00
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Space Environments and Effects
Network of Technical
Competences (SEENoTC)
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Overview of SEENoTC
Responsibilities
• Goals:
– to reinforce the coordination of existing and planned space
environments and effects related activities in Europe,
– implementation of a coherent European programme of
activities in the domain,
• Domain:
– energetic particle radiation and its effects on systems,
payloads and humans;
– natural and induced plasma environments and their
interactions with spacecraft, and resulting effects on
systems and payloads
– Explicitly excluded are space debris, micrometeoroid and
thermal environments.
– Explicitly included are space weather effects on
spacecraft
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Organisation
• Working Group
– National representatives responsible for collecting inputs from
communities
– Responsible for drawing up roadmaps and identifying areas for
coordination and financial support
– SWWT Chairman is a member of the WG, responsible for
making recommendations from this community
• Steering Board
– National representatives from agencies and funding bodies
– Approve roadmaps annually
• Supports activities that build on the main coordination
goals of the network
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Summary
• Space weather interests a broad cross section of ESA from missions
geared to furthering our understanding of underlying phenomena through to
protecting ESA spacecraft from its effects
• The SWENET network provides an operational network of user-oriented
space weather services
– Clear evidence of interest from industry
– Input on future requirements solicited from SDA community
– Cost and benefit analysis indicates significant potential growth in the
market for space weather services in several areas
– Strong community support for maintaining SWENET demonstrated at
ESWWs
• Work in progress in the area of Space Situational Awareness
• Scope for coordination of activities geared towards space weather effects
on spacecraft via the SEENoTC
• National activities developing: e.g. in France, Germany, Belgium, Spain…
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007
Next Steps
• Short Term:
– Next meeting of SWENET community: Splinter 1 this afternoon
– Next consultation meeting on SSA: Splinter 3 Wednesday
• Longer Term:
– Work will continue on an SSA proposal into 2008
– ESA to further investigate how to build on successful outcome of
the space weather applications pilot project
– In parallel, ESA’s normal R and D programmes will continue to
support space environment related applications activities.
– Continue and expand policy of flying radiation monitors on ESA s/c,
ensuring processing and full exploitation of these data
– Continued collaboration with other national and international space
weather initiatives
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007