BONUS REPORT
INSTANT HORSE RACING PROFITS –
STAKING FOR THE BEGINNER AND
THE EXPERIENCED PUNTER
What is it?
A staking plan is a logical, methodical way of tailoring the
amount you bet to the circumstances. It lets you calculate
what your next bet amount should be depending on whether
your bank is showing a profit or a loss.
Why do I need it?
You need it because it is the most important part of your
overall strategy. It is there to protect your bank, to grow your
bank, and to allow your bank to recover after a loss. Every
successful gambler has a staking plan, without exception.
What types are there?
There are a few different types of plan, though all of these
have tweaks and variations which can be used at different
times.
The four main types you usually hear about are fixed or level
plan, variable, progressive and proportional.
Fixed staking
This is the simplest, most basic type of staking plan. With this
one, you simply bet a fixed amount each time. It doesn’t
matter what the odds are or how much is in your bank, your
stake is always the same, whether it is £5 or £50. It is a fairly
popular way of doing things, especially for those who don’t
have a great deal of experience, and it can be a good way of
steadily building up your bank if you tend to place back bets
and use a method with a high strike rate.
If laying horses is more your thing and you decide to place lay
bets to a fixed stake, you’ll notice that your liability can have a
wide range which could play havoc with your bank and your
plans. Using a £5 stake and laying a horse at odds of 3.0, for
example, gives you a liability of £10. For the same stake and
odds of 6.0, your liability is £25. If your bet loses, the impact
can be quite big if it is an outsider at long odds.
The alternative then is to make your liability the same for
every bet. Instead of having a £5 stake on every bet, you
might make your liability £20. That would mean that for a
horse with odds of 3.0, you would use a stake of £10, and for
odds of 6.0 you would use a stake of £4.
The screenshot below shows some examples where lay bets
were placed to about a £20 liability.
This staking method means that you have the advantage of
winning greater amounts when shorter priced lay bets come
in, but you aren’t hit in the pocket if a longer priced horse
actually wins. It can be a good way of building up your bank
quickly and protecting it when you need to, as you can simply
reduce the liability amount to limit your exposure if you are in
recovery mode.
Variable staking
This is usually seen as a step further on from fixed staking,
and it is adopted by people who have understood the basics
and feel a little more confident about using staking plans. It
works particularly well with backing methods.
With this one, the stake is adjusted according to the
confidence you attach to the bet. You might want to have a
stake of £20 for each bet where the odds are 2.0 or less, and
reduce this as the odds increase so that you stake £10 at
odds between 2.0 and 6.0 and £5 when the odds are over,
say, 6.0. You can have as many levels as you like between
the two ends of the scale - you just need to work out what
works best with the system you are using.
You don’t need to use the odds to determine the level of your
stakes – if you are using a points based system then you
would place the largest amounts on the selections with the
highest number of points and vice versa.
With this plan, the fact that you are betting according to your
confidence levels means that you are placing more money on
those bets that are more likely to come in, and less money on
the longer shots. Used with the right selection strategy, it can
grow your bank pretty quickly, especially with a decent run of
winners.
Progressive staking
This type of plan is not for the faint hearted, or even for
anyone who is serious about using a proper, methodical
staking plan. It carries the greatest risk, and for that reason it
is not commonly used by experienced betters.
The most well known example of this is the martingale system,
where the stakes are increased after each loss. Usually, the
stakes are doubled in order to try to recover a loss with just
one successful bet, but it doesn’t take a genius to realise that
it only takes a few losing bets in a row to blow your entire bank
in no time. On the other hand, if your method has a very high
strike rate then it does mean that your bank will recover very
quickly.
Basically, the plan adds your normal stake to any losses and
increases until you have a winner. If you start with a bank of
£100, and bet £10 for your first bet and it loses, you would
then bet £20 on your next bet. If that wins, you would return to
your usual £10 stake for your next bet, but if it loses you would
increase your bet again to £40. If that is a winner, great, but if
not you can see that already your bank does not have enough
money left to place the next bet of £80.
You’ll often see this progressive staking mentioned alongside
casino strategies, especially with roulette games. Don’t be
fooled by the hype and the promises of massive returns in no
time that you see claimed for this technique, though.
It may well give you an initial boost, but sooner or later you will
have a losing run and if you follow this approach you will
eventually lose your bank. In fact, it only takes a run of 10
losers to end with you betting over 1,000 times your original
stake just to try and make a small profit. The table below
show how easy it is to increase to huge bets, even starting
with just a £2 stake:
Bet Number Stake (£)
1 2
2 4
3 8
4 16
5 32
6 64
7 128
8 256
9 512
10 1024
11 2048
Proportional staking
This is probably the most widely used method, and there are
again a few variations on this idea. The common theme of all
of these, though, is to change your stake according to the size
of your bank so that you always bet the same proportion,
regardless of the actual amount in the bank. The usual way to
do this is to make your stake a percentage of your bank, such
as 2% or 5%.
If you start with a bank of £200 and make your first stake 5%
(£10), on a win bet at odds of 3.0, then if you win you would
make your next stake £11 as your bank would now be at £220
If you had placed the same bet but it had lost, then you would
reduce your next stake so that you were still betting 5% of
your bank, in this case £9.50 as your bank would be at £190.
The idea of this is that you will maximise your returns when
the results are in your favour, and reduce your risk when luck
is against you. On the other hand, there are a couple of
criticisms of this type of staking plan. The first is that reducing
your stake means that it takes you longer to recover any
losses, and secondly you also have to be able to recalculate
your bank after every result which means it isn’t as effective
as it could be if you are the type who works out all their bets
for the day and places them at the same time.
Which plan is best?
Actually, all the plans (except for progressive staking, which is
really best just avoided) have advantages in different
situations and whether you prefer to back or lay. Bearing in
mind that the essential aims of any plan are to protect your
bank and then grow it, it makes sense to consider combining
plans so that you get the best results.
One way of doing this, and this is what many of the most
successful people do, is to combine flat betting with
proportional staking.
The flat betting element is applied whenever the bank is in
credit. For back bets, this means a fixed stake, and for lay
bets it means a fixed liability.
The proportional staking element is used whenever the bank
is below the level it started it. This fulfils the aim of protecting
the bank against a bad run, while still allowing it to grow back
at a decent rate.
This way of staking is therefore the best compromise between
making the most profit and protecting your initial investment.
Targets
Every staking plan has to have a target. It doesn’t need to be
set in stone, but you do need to know what you are aiming for
at any time so that you can plan correctly.
You could have a target to grow your bank by a certain
amount, say by £100 or 5%. Once you hit this amount, you
could decide to increase your stake to reflect your new bank if
you have been betting to level stakes, or you could simply
take the profit and start again with the bank back at your
original starting level.
You might instead have a target to recover your bank to the
level it was at the start of the week or month, if you have had a
few losers. Once you reach this, you can review your staking
and move from a bank recovery plan to a bank building plan.
Targets can also have a timescale attached to them, to help
prevent you getting greedy or stop you from chasing losses.
For example, you might have a target of £25 a day. If you
make this on the first race you bet on, then experienced
betters would know not to push their luck and would finish for
the day. One of the biggest reasons for failure is ignoring the
target because people feel they are on a good run, only to find
the next couple of bets that day lose and they end up down.
On the other hand, if you have had a loser it can help to know
that you still have plenty of time left to make up the difference,
so you aren’t tempted to abandon the plan and chase.
There is no reason you can’t switch between targets as your
bank situation changes. After a loss you can switch to a
recovery target, and then swap back to a growth target later.
Summary
Whether you are a backer or a layer, you need to use a
staking plan in order to be successful.
Which plan you choose is down to you, but it must suit your
style of betting. One which requires you to calculate your next
stake after every race result probably isn’t much use if you
can’t get to your pc during the day. On the other hand there is
no point sitting at your pc waiting for the next result if you
prefer a staking plan that allows you to put all your bets on first
thing in the morning.
Always remember the purpose of a plan, and don’t be tempted
to deviate from it. A consistent approach means that your
plans will achieve their aims of both protecting your bank
during a poor run, and growing it when things are going your
way.