Secondary Edu

Document Sample
Secondary Edu Powered By Docstoc
					        UGANDA
POST-PRIMARY EDUCATION
     SECTOR REPORT



  Final Report, August 2002
                                   Acknowledgments


This report was prepared by:

      Xiaoyan Liang, Task Team Leader

Under the World Bank supervision and management of:

      Paud Murphy, Lead Education Specialist, AFTH1
      Dzingai B. Mutubmuka, Sector Manager, AFTH1

With support from Team Members:

      Harriet Nannyonjo, AFTH1
      Debbie Peterson, AFTH1

With background papers from:

      Paul Bennell
      Charles Byaruhanga
      Jack Keating
      Victor Levine
      Keith Lewin
      Tony Read
      Uganda National Education Bureau
      International Development Consultants Ltd.
      Impact Associates in Association with Monach Consulting Company

And with collaboration from the Ministry of Education and Sports, Uganda:

      The Department of Secondary Education
      The Department of Business, Technical, and Vocational Education and Training

Peer Reviewers:
      Jacob Bregman
      David Court
      Toby Linden
      Peter Moock
      Adriaan M. Verspoor

Written Comments were also received from:
      Amit Dar
      Bruce N. Jones
      Soren Nellemann
      Michael Ward (DFID Uganda)
                                 TABLE OF CONTENTS


List of Tables                                                                     5
List of Figures                                                                    7
List of Boxes                                                                      7
Acronyms and Abbreviations                                                         8

Executive Summary                                                                  9

1. Introduction                                                                   20
        1.1 The Importance of Post-primary Education                              20
        1.2 Purposes of the Study                                                 21
        1.3 Sector Report Development Process                                     23
        1.4 Sources of Data                                                       25
        1.5 Definition of Post-primary Education                                  26
        1.6 Organization of the Sector Report                                     26

2. Demographic, Social and Economic Context                                       27

3. Education Sector Overview                                                      29
      3.1 Structure of the Education System                                       29
      3.2 Size of the Education Sector                                            29
      3.3 Selected Basic Indicators of the Education System in Uganda             30
      3.4 Government Expenditure on Education                                     32

4. Uganda Post-primary Education                                                  34
      4.1 Policy, Objectives, Structure, Admission, and Size                      34
      4.2 System Performance                                                      39
      4.2.1 Coverage                                                         39
             4.2.2 Coverage for the Poor and Other Disadvantaged                  41
             4.2.3 The Determinants of Secondary Enrollment                       44
             4.2.4 Internal efficiency: Transition, Repetition, and Dropouts      46
             4.2.5Exams, Assessment, and Student Learning Achievement             50
             4.2.6. Learning Achievement for the Poor and Other Disadvantaged     53
             4.2.7 Labor Market Outcomes                                          54
                     ● Education and Employment in the Formal Sector              54
                     ● Wage Premiums Associated with Post-primary Education       55
                     ● “Productivity” in the Informal Sector                      56
                     ● Demand for Post-primary Graduates
57
                     ● The Evolving Structure of Uganda Economy                   58
      4.3 System Inputs                                                           59
            4.3.1 Governance and management                                      59
                    ● School-level Management                                    60
                    ● Management Information                                     61
                    ● Inspection                                                 61
            4.3.2 Teachers                                                       62
                    ● Pupil:Teacher Ratio                                        62
                    ● Qualifications                                             63
                    ● Teaching Load                                              63
                    ● Specialization and Major Subject Taught                    64
                    ● Teacher Management and Performance                         64
                    ● Professional Development                                   66
                    ● Summary on Teachers                                        67
            4.3.3 Curriculum                                                     67
            4.3.4 Physical infrastructure                                        69
            4.3.5 Learning Materials                                             69
            4.3.6 Access to Information                                          71
     4.4 Cost and Financing of Post-primary Education                            73
            4.4.1 Public expenditures                                            73
                    ●     Budget process                                         73
                    ●     Percentage of Education Budget Allocated to
                    Post-primary Education.                                           73
                    ●     Public Expenditure per Pupil                           75
                    ●     Public per Pupil Expenditure by District
            76
                    ●     Equity of Public Expenditure                           76
            4.4.2 Private Expenditures                                           78
                    ●       Private Direct Cost                                  78
                    ●       Total Unit Cost (Direct)
     79
                    ●       Private Opportunity cost
            79
     4.5 Technical and Vocational Education                                      80
            4.5.1 Institutions and Enrollment                                    80
                    ●       Policy Context                                       81
                    ●       Organizational Arrangements                          82
                    ●       Financing Mechanisms                                 82
            4.5.2 Technical and Farm Schools
82
             4.5.3 Comprehensive Schools and Community Polytechnics                   84
     4.6. Private Provision of PPET                                              86
             4.6.1 Size of the Private Sector in PPET                            86
             4.6.2 Registration and Licensing of Private Schools                 88
             4.6.3 Private Provision and Coverage                                88
             4.6.4 Private Provision and Unit Costs                              90
     4.7 Cost-Effectiveness of Various PPET Institutions                         92
             4.7.1 Variation of School Expenditure per Pupil by Type of School   92
              4.7.2 Variation of School Expenditure per Pupil by School Size         94

5. PPET Enrollment and Transition Rates Projections                                      96

6. Conclusions                                                                           97

7. Broad Policy Options for Post-primary Education Reform                            103

References                                                                           108

Annexes                                                                              110

List of Tables:

Table 1: World Bank Lending to Uganda, 25
Table 2: Poverty and Social Indicators, 27
Table 3: Population Projections from 2000 (estimated) to 2025, Uganda, 28
Table 4: Schools, Enrollments, and Teachers by Type, 30
Table 5: Enrollment (and number of schools) by ownership, 30
Table 6: Total Education Expenditure as a % of GNP and as a % of Total Expenditure, 32
Table 7: Recurrent Budget Allocation 1998-2004 (estimated), 33
Table 8: Structure of Education System by World Region, 36
Table 9: Overview of the General Secondary Education System (2000), 38
Table 10: Age-specific Enrollment Ratio for Secondary Schools in 1999/2000, 39
Table 11: Secondary Gross Enrollment Ratio, 1996, 40
Table 12: Secondary Gross and Net Enrollment Ratios by Gender, 42
Table 13: Secondary Enrollment Rates by Quintile, 1992, 1997, and 2000, 44
Table 14: Transition Rates from p7 to S1, 47
Table 15: Primary to Secondary Transition Rates, 1994, 47
Table 16: Transition Rates from S4 to S5, 48
Table 17: Dropout rates by type of school and location, 2001, 49
Table 18a: UCE Candidates and Pass Rates by subject (2000) for main subjects, 50
Table 18b: UCE Candidates and Fail Rates for Math and English 1996-2001, 50
Table 19: UACE Candidates and Pass Rates by subject (2000), 51
Table 20: Quality Study Failure Rates I, 52
Table 21: Quality Study Failure Rates II, 53
Table 22: The Ugandan Labor Force, 54
Table 23: Probability of Being in Paid Employment by Educational Attainment
       (individuals age 15-69, not in school), 55
Table 24: Wage Premiums, 56
Table 25: Growth of Outputs, 1990 and 1996, 59
Table 26: Teacher Education by Gender and Degree, 63
Table 27: Current „O‟- level curriculum based on the 1982 subject guidelines, 67
Table 28: Buildings at secondary schools, 2000, 69
Table 29: The Information Age, 72
Table 30: Secondary Education Expenditure as a % of all levels, 74
Table 31: 2001/02 Planned Budget for Secondary Recurrent Expenditure, 75
Table 32: Expenditure per secondary student as % of per capita GNI, 75
Table 33: Public Expenditure per pupil by district, 76
Table 34: Cumulative % of public subsidy by population cohorts, 77
Table 35: Opportunity Cost of PPET, 79
Table 36: Institutional Profile of BTVET and Enrollment Capacity, 80
Table 37: Average Expenditure per student, 83
Table 38: Technical and „O‟ - level Secondary Failure Rates, 83
Table 39: The Proposed Comprehensive and Vocational Secondary School Curriculum,
       85
Table 40: Percent of Private Enrollment in General Secondary Schools, 1990 and 1996,
       87
Table 41: Percent Enrollment in Private Secondary Schools by District, 2000, 88
Table 42: Correlation of Private Provision and NER, 89
Table 43: Unit Costs per Pupil in Public and Private PPET, 90
Table 44: Math and English Failure Rates in Government and Private Schools, 92
Table 45: Breakdown of Use-Attributable Cost per Pupil, 92
Table 46: Failure Rates by School Type, 93

Tables Contained in the Annexes:

Table 47: Regression Results: Predicting the probability of secondary enrollment among
       13-25 year-olds who have completed primary school, 111
Table 48: Education Expenditure UNHS 1999/2000, 113
Table 49: Regression Analysis of Household Education Expenditure – UNHS, 114
Table 50: Summary of Household Expenditure on Education by Category, 115
Table 51: Average Earnings of P7 Completers by Age, 116
Table 52: Household Enterprise Function, 118
Table 53: Estimated “Shadow Wage” of P7 Completers, 119
Table 54: Opportunity Cost of PPET, 119
Table 55: Consolidated Reforms and Activities in the Baseline Model,
Table 56: Activities for the Baseline Model,
List of Figures:

Figure 1: GNP per Capita and Secondary Gross Enrollment Ratio, 20
Figure 2: Uganda Educational Structure, 29
Figure 3: Percentage Completing Primary and 3 years of Secondary Education from 1953
       to 1993, 31
Figure 4: Enrollment by Age (from HH Survey, all ages), 32
Figure 5: Number of Secondary Schools, 1970-2000, 37
Figure 6: Secondary Enrollment Trends, 1970-2000, 38
Figure 7: Age-specific Enrollment Ratio, 40
Figure 8: Comparison of Secondary Enrollment for Males and Females by Age, 42
Figure 9: Comparison by Quintile of Secondary Enrollment by Age, 43
Figure 10: Reasons for not attending school for children of secondary school age, 45
Figure 11: Reasons for dropping out of school, 45
Figure 12: Comparison, among Quintiles, of Percentage of Working Children, 46
Figure 13: Dropouts by grade and gender, 48
Figure 14: Repeaters by grade and gender, 49
Figure 15: Yearly Return to Education, 56
Figure 16: Pupil-teacher Ratio by Region, 62
Figure 17: Accumulated Subsidy by population cohorts, 77
Figure 18: Costs of PPET, 80
Figure 19: Distribution of Expenditure -- Public and Private, 91
Figure 20: Primary Enrollment in P7 and PLE Passes, 96
Figure 21: Total PPET Enrollment Government and Private, 97
Figure 22: Nominal Transition Rates from P7 to S1, 98



List of Boxes:

Box 1: Skills and Attributes Valued by Employers: Findings from Firm Demand Survey
       Uganda, 57
Box 2: A recent survey of 35 secondary schools in seven districts in Uganda, 70
Box 3: The “Book Flood” experiment in Fiji, 70
Box 4: Findings from Vocational Skills Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Phase I
       Synthesis, 84
Box 5: Expanding Secondary Education: The Zimbabwe Experience,




Acronyms and Abbreviations:

BoG                  Board of Governors
BTVET         Business, Technical, and Vocational Education and Training
CP            Community Polytechnic
DBVTET        Department of BTVET
EFAG                 Education Funding Agency Group
EMIS                 Education Management Information System
ESA                  Education Standards Agency
ESIP                 Education Strategic Investment Plan
GER                  Gross Enrollment Ratio
GoU                  Government of Uganda
MOES                 Ministry of Education and Sports
NCDC                 National Curriculum Development Center
NER                  Net Enrollment Ratio
PAF                  Poverty Action Fund
PPET                 Post-primary Education and Training
PTA                  Parent-Teacher Association
PTR                  Pupil:Teacher Ratio
SED                  Secondary Education Department
UACE                 Uganda Advanced Certificate of Education
UCE                  Uganda Certificate of Education
UPE                  Universal Primary Education
                                          FOREWORD


Since the mid 1980s, Uganda has become one of Africa's success stories. Reform measures
introduced by the current Government have been largely implemented and the country is on a
road toward steady economic recovery.

Progress is particularly prominent in the education sector, and especially in primary education.
The President's decision in 1996 to eliminate primary school fees for up to four children per
family removed what had been an important economic impediment for families to enroll and
maintain their children at school. This decision also sent a strong signal that basic education is
of high priority. By 2001, the gross enrollment ratio for primary education stood at more than
120%.

Post-primary education, on the other hand, has received less attention. This is particularly the
case for the different types of secondary education, which is the main focus of the present report.
At about 19% in 2000, the gross enrollment ratio for the full six-grade cycle of general
secondary education is well below the Sub-Saharan average of almost 30%. In addition to low
coverage, access rates differ considerably by gender, parental income and area of residence.
Moreover, internal efficiency and student achievement is low. The quality and coverage of
vocational and technical education and training is also fairly low, comparatively costly, and ill
adapted to labor market needs.

While Uganda is right in giving top priority to achieving universal primary education, secondary
education now requires urgent attention as well. The recent rapid enrollment growth in primary
education is causing a sharp increase in the demand for education beyond the primary level.
Furthermore, there is a wide international consensus on the critical role played by good quality
secondary education in enabling countries to train the manpower required to benefit from the
ICT and knowledge revolution, and to compete successfully in the new globalized,
knowledge-based economy. Secondary education also yields considerable private returns, and
provides opportunities to acquire attitudes, skills, and competencies that enhance the ability of
young people to participate fully in society, take control of their lives, and continue learning at
the post-secondary level.

However, similar to other Sub-Saharan African countries, Uganda faces enormous challenges in
maintaining the drive towards good quality universal primary education while, at the same time,
responding to the increasing social and economic demand for rapid expansion of secondary
education as well. In considering their options for expanding access to secondary education,
Governments have to decide on difficult trade-offs between the role of public financing in
supporting different levels (lower and upper secondary education), and types of secondary
education (general, technical, vocational), as well as in ensuring equity in provision between
different population groups (e.g., boys and girls, urban/rural, poor and more well-off groups).

This study is designed to help the Government clarify these trade-offs. The study represents a
comprehensive review of Uganda‟s secondary education sector. It is based on new data
gathered specifically to examine the cost, quality, and demand for such education. The analysis
also draws on a wealth of existing data and studies. Findings from all previous studies of
post-primary education are synthesized to produce a comprehensive picture. For each aspect of
access, equity, quality, management and financing, the study discusses the achievements to date,
the challenges ahead, and broad options for reform.

This study was developed in consultation with the Ugandan Ministry of Education and Sports.
It also represents a collaborative effort between the World Bank and other development partners
in the Education Funding Agency Group in Uganda. It was supported financially by the
Norwegian Education Trust Fund. We hope the study will contribute to the national
consultative process that is currently underway and serve as a platform on which to build a
sustainable Post-primary Education Strategic Plan for Uganda.


                                        Birger Fredriksen
                                    Senior Education Advisor
                                Africa Region. The World Bank
                                  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, Uganda has made impressive progress in primary education. The President's
decision in 1996 to eliminate fees for up to four children per family removed what had been an
important financial impediment and also sent a strong signal that education is of high priority.
An additional 2.3 million children (1.1 m girls and 1.2 m boys) responded immediately, bringing
the total primary enrollment up to 5.7 million in 1997. By 2001, total enrollment had reached
6.9 million and the gross enrollment ratio stood at more than 120%.

The Post-primary education and training sector (PPET) , on the other hand, has received very
little attention. Uganda‟s secondary education (including all grades of S1-S6) gross enrollment
ratio of 19% and net enrollment ratio of 13% in 2000 were low compared to any international or
regional standard and well below the average among countries of similar GNP per capita income.
Yet it is well documented that secondary education contributes significantly to economic, social,
and cultural development. Even within the education system, secondary education is important
for training the teachers and administrators that staff the primary school system. In fact, by
training mid-level technicians and preparing future professionals, post-primary education plays a
similar role in other areas that are key to economic development.

The Government of Uganda has become increasingly aware of the importance of post-primary
education, especially in anticipation of the increase in post-primary demand that should result in
the aftermath of the implementation of Universal Primary Education (UPE). The Government is
interested in expanding and improving upon the system. In fact, President Museveni announced
during the last election in 2001 that he would pursue “Free Secondary Education.” The
Ministry of Education and Sports (MOES) has since started to assess the implications of such a
policy.

With support from the Education Funding Agency Group, the Ministry of Education
commissioned a series of inter-related studies on post-primary education. It was expected that
these studies would fill important knowledge gaps with regards to the status of Ugandan
post-primary education.      This Sector Report synthesizes findings from the various
commissioned studies and present a frank picture of Ugandan post-primary education, its
achievements to date, the challenges ahead, and broad options for reform. Further the Report
presents two costed policy options for immediate consideration by the Ministry, based on the
work by Prof. Keith Lewin of the University of Sussex. The Report and the options have been
discussed with the Government during the April 2002 Education Sector Review and comments
from the Review have been incorporated.
The Report and the Options together are to provide the basis for a wide consultation that would
lead to a Uganda Post-primary Education Strategic Framework to be presented at the next
Education Sector Review. This process is owned and led by the Government.

SYSTEM DIAGNOSIS

Multifaceted Nature. The PPET system in Uganda is by no means monolithic. The system is
a mixture of a small proportion of elite high quality government and religiously founded schools,
which are well-resourced and only the rich in the society can afford, and a majority of poor
performing private and community schools established mainly to cater for the less wealthy
families.

Low Priority. The PPET subsector of the education system is not currently a high priority
sector. Over the last few years, the average share of recurrent secondary budget out of total
education recurrent has been around 15%, the share of technical and vocational education around
3%, compared to 65% for primary education. Given the Government‟s financial commitment to
provide at least 65% of the education sector budget for primary education and the likely increase
of budget for tertiary education due to early stages of higher education reform, the PPET sector
can best hope for the share to be maintained at the current levels in the medium term.

Multiple Objectives. As is the case in most countries, Post-primary education in Uganda has
multiple objectives including the transmission of general knowledge, skills, citizenship, and
other values. At the very least it has the potentially contradictory “dual task” of providing the
higher level of schools with qualified students, as well as preparing students for the world of
work. An important question to ask is how the education system should be organized to deliver all
of its objectives. The report‟s position is that there is a need to focus the scarce PPET resources
(at least the public sector) on instilling basic literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills.
This focus on the basics will ultimately serve both and all purposes well.

Unclear Policy Directions. The long-term national policies for education come mainly out of
documents and policy statements external to the Ministry of Education and Sports, some of the
recent important ones include:

   1 Free secondary education
   2 Creating a national network of community polytechnics
   3 Steady vocationalization of secondary education by creating comprehensive schools and
     vocational schools
   4 Relaxing current controls, restraints and quality assurance checks on private education in
     order to encourage the rapid growth of private secondary schools.

However, these broad policy directions have not been explicitly accepted and translated into
policies and guidelines by the Ministry of Education and Sports. Furthermore, these statements
generally do not take into account the resource implications. This lack of a coherent policy
framework, the absence of implementation guidelines, and lack of consideration for resource
constraints have become major obstacles to improvement in the sector.

Poor System Performance.
   1 Low coverage and extreme inequity. Coverage at the secondary level is very low: GER
      for S1-S4 (the main focus of PPET) is 35%; overall GER for S1-S6 is only 19%.
      Therefore at least two thirds of the age group population are without access to PPET and
      overall about 80% of the population have no access to secondary education. In addition,
      inequity in the Ugandan secondary system is much more widespread than at the primary
      level, with the richest 20% of the households occupying 63% of total secondary spaces.
   2 Gender disparity. There is a gender disparity in secondary coverage. Only 41% of
     secondary enrollment are females. Female enrollment ratios fall below those for males
     especially after age 17. Gender disparity is worst in the Northern Region perhaps due to
     social norms. Girls do significantly worse in mathematics than do boys nationwide, but
     their performance in English was similar. The gender disparity needs to be addressed as
     a priority given the Millennium Development Goals to which the Uganda Government
     has committed itself.
   3 Low internal efficiency. The PPET system overall has low repetition but fairly
     significant dropout rates. Dropouts rates tend to be higher in rural and non-government
     schools. And bottleneck occurs at the transition from primary to secondary (between
     40-50% including both public and private) and from Ordinary level to A-level (26%).
     However, given the projected increase in the primary graduates, the transition rate will
     fall if no action is taken to expand and improve the PPET system.
   4 Very Poor student achievement especially in Math, English, and Sciences. A recent
     School Quality Study found that nationwide, 40% of Form 1 students and half of Form 3
     students failed math tests. Results of the English tests are only slightly better:
     one-quarter of students fail English tests. These tests were specifically designed to test
     the basic concepts and skills in Math and English and can be seen as tests of minimum
     requirements. Such high failure rates indicate that a substantial proportion of secondary
     students are coming away without the skills and competencies they need.

Labor market analysis.
   1 Returns are high. Despite the average poor performance, the labor market analysis show
      that PPET students are not only more likely to be employed by the formal wage sector,
      once employed, returns to secondary education--and especially to lower secondary --are
      fairly high. For every additional year of lower secondary education, there is an
      associated wage increase of more than 20%. Further, there is evidence that PPET
      graduates are more productive even in the informal sector than those who have not been
      to secondary schools.
   2 Differential Demand for PPET Graduates. Firm Demand Study shows that, despite the
      advocacy for vocationalization, it is the generic skills and knowledge, in addition to
      positive work attitudes, that are most valued by the employers. In addition, the
      increasingly diversified and dynamic formal industry sector makes predicting which
      particular practical skills will be in demand difficult. Therefore schools are much better
      positioned to focus on transmitting basic foundational knowledge and skills so that
      students are flexible to adapt to various work environments.
   3 Evolving Structure of Uganda Economy. Though predominantly an agriculture-based
      economy, there is every reason to believe that the structure of economy is evolving to
      become more and more industrialized and service-oriented. Data show that while
      agriculture grew on average 3.7% in the 1990s, its rate of growth fell far behind that of
      industry, especially the manufacturing and service sectors, which grew at average rates of
      12.7%, 14.2%, and 8.1% respectively. Economists have every expectation that these
      sectors will continue to grow at similar rates. This means that middle-level skills are or
      will be needed urgently by the economy. A focus on science, technology, and
      engineering will agree with the general trend of the economy and can bring Uganda more
      in line with successful international examples of PPET in the service of economic
       development.

Insufficient Inputs: The poor system performance listed above is mainly due to the poor quality
inputs or lack of inputs in the following areas:

   1 Weak Management Capacity. Post-primary Education and Training (PPET) is the
     primary responsibility of two departments in the MOES: the Secondary Education
     Department (SED) and the Department of Business, Technical and Vocational Education
     and Training (DBTVET). The DBTVET is in charge of institutions that range from
     secondary technical and farm schools to tertiary institutions that are actually governed by
     Higher Education Act. There is a need to streamline the institutional arrangement for
     PPET. Further, at the central level, management capacity is weakened by inadequate
     staffing and lack of relevant management training. The same is true at the school level.
     Schools are rarely inspected, and headmasters have very little training in effective
     management and accountability is low.

   2 Overloaded Curriculum. The secondary curriculum in Uganda is overloaded. There are
     at least 14 subjects (for S1 and S2) and 9 subjects (for S3 and S4) being taught. Because
     of so many subjects being taught, on average, students spend 50 periods (each period is
     45-50 minutes) in classes each week, leaving little time for play and other extracurricular
     activities. The tight schedule also makes more efficient use of resources almost
     impossible.

   3 Characteristics of Teachers.
        o Teaching load. There is evidence that secondary teachers in Uganda may not be
            optimally utilized. The overall pupil:teacher ratio in secondary is only 17, well
            below the African average ratio of 25:1 in secondary schools. The average
            teaching load is about 22.5 periods per week, less than half of the 50-period
            provided to students weekly. There is much variation in teacher utilization by
            subject and location, and there is thus considerable room for efficiency
            improvements.
        o Teacher salary.         Compared to the GDP per capita of US$320, secondary
            teachers in Uganda can be considered fairly well paid. Average salary cost in
            2001 was Ush2.86 million (US$1,787), not mentioning the shorter hours of work
            and long summer vacation teachers enjoy. Further, teachers in many elite
            government schools have salary supplement from the school PTA funds.
            Teachers in private schools, who are paid entirely out of PTA funds, generally
            receive much less that those fully paid by the government. Further the pay
            disparity between a graduate and Grade V teachers starting salaries Ush300,000
            vs. Ush135,000) may be too large to be justified.
        o On the other hand, teacher working conditions are generally poor.
                There is a lack of basic teaching and learning materials, libraries and labs
                    at the school level.
                There is a lack of a coherent incentive and career structure for teachers.
                Professional Development. Apart from the qualification upgrading of
                    the Grade V teachers, teachers generally receive little in-service training.
                       The Teacher Utilization Study found that the average teacher had attended
                       1.8 refresher courses since 1993!

1   Textbooks and other inputs. It is long established that the availability of textbooks and other
    learning materials have an positive impact on student learning. In Uganda, textbooks and
    other inputs are mostly financed out of the capitation grants or fees collected from parents, so
    schools tend to spend very little on textbooks and other important inputs. Critical non-wage,
    non-boarding inputs are lacking, especially in rural-area schools. Overall, the student:book
    ratio stands at about 6:1 in secondary schools, while the student:classroom ratio is 46:1.
    There is also an overall shortage of library, lab facilities, computers, and internet access.

Inefficient and Inequitable Public Financing:

2   High Costs of PPET to the Government and Households:
       o Government subsidies are only targeted at government or grant-aided schools in the
          form of teacher salaries and capitation grants. Public expenditure per enrolled
          student is Ush.236,994 (US$148) and is high, compared to per capita GDP (US$320)
          and compared to expenditure per primary student (about US$22). Since capitation
          grants are fixed on a per student basis (regardless of his or her family background),
          the major source of variation in public expenditure per student stems from the
          pupil:teacher ratio and the proportion of Graduate (more qualified and better paid) on
          the government payroll.

       o The cost of going to secondary school is prohibitive for many families, especially for
         poor ones. This is not only because of the direct costs associated with secondary
         enrollment (estimated to be Ush.238,000, per child enrolled, in both public and
         private schools), but also because the value of the child‟s time in the labor force is
         much higher at the secondary level (estimated to be Ush. 265,000). 47% of the
         Ugandan households have annual income at or below Ush. 620,050 and there is little
         room for further increasing private contribution to public secondary education or to
         private secondary education.

       o Average school expenditure per pupil (pooling both public and private expenditures)
         is highest in Boarding schools, due to the high costs associated with boarding
         facilities and a higher proportion of graduate teachers employed. Per pupil
         expenditures at the technical schools are also high: almost twice as high as those in
         O-level secondary schools. Government schools on average have higher costs than
         private schools.

3   PPET Public Expenditure is Highly Inequitable. There are two sources of inequity in the
    financing of PPET. First of all most poor children do not go to secondary schools (only
    3.8% of the poorest 20% of the population are enrolled in secondary schools) so they are not
    benefiting from any subsidies that government may provide to secondary schools.
    Secondly, most of the poor children opt for cheaper private or community schools which do
    not receive any government subsidies. Children from wealthier families, on the other hand,
    tend to go to schools that are better resourced in terms of teachers (paid by the government)
   and other inputs. As a result, public expenditure on secondary education is regressive, that
   is, the wealthier population are benefiting disproportionately from public subsidies in
   secondary education. The poorest 20% of the population are only enjoying 13% of
   government subsidy whereas the richest 20% of the population are enjoying 34%.

If PPET coverage is to be improved, unit costs must fall by increasing the efficiency public
financing. The Government has a financial commitment to provide at least 65% of its
education budget to primary education in order to make sure that the enrollment gains achieved
through UPE are maintained and the quality of primary education further improved. In this
context, the best scenario is perhaps for the share of secondary to be maintained at about 15%,
and the share for BTVET at 3%, which implies that, in nominal terms, public resource available
for PPET will grow at 5% (equivalent to projected GDP growth). Assuming that population
grows at 3%, the PPET can only grow at 2% rate at most without altering significantly its current
production methods. Neither universal secondary education nor the ESIP targets of reaching the
gross secondary enrollment of 58% by 2010, with 68% of the enrollment in private schools, are
attainable within this resource envelope.

Therefore, if access is to be improved, unit costs must fall by increasing the efficiency public
financing. Worldwide, countries that achieve a high gross secondary enrollment ratio tend to
have a very low cost ratio between secondary and primary (about 2:1). In Uganda such ratio is
as high as 7:1. And if the access is to be more equitable, the equity of public financing must
also be improved.

Private Provision of PPET is already high. If we define private schools to be all schools that
do not receive any subsidy from the government, the proportion of private enrollment for PPET
was at about 57% of total secondary enrollment in 2000. This proportion of private enrollment
is extremely high compared to the same statistics from other countries (South America has 26%
of enrollment in private schools compared to 22% for Africa, 15% for Asia and 12% for Europe).
There is also indication that the proportion of secondary enrollment in private schools has
decreased since 1990 in most countries. Hence, there may be very little room for further
increasing the proportion of private provision. Though there are a few elite private schools
established by religious bodies, a majority of private secondary schools in Uganda cater mainly
for poor families. Expanding the PPET coverage by increasing the proportion of private
provision (without government support) will have negative impact on the system equity. And it
is not likely that government will be in a position to provide subsidy to private schools in the
short term, given the resource constraints.

Community Polytechnics and Vocationalization of Secondary Education through
Comprehensive and Vocational Schools. The Government is seriously considering adopting
Community Polytechnics as central to its strategy for secondary expansion. The concept of
Community Polytechnics is still fluid. The idea is to erect new or convert existing structures in
every sub-county. They will cater mainly for primary graduates who do not go to secondary
schools and for secondary school dropouts. The curriculum will have a heavy dose of
vocational subjects and the community is expected to shoulder most of the costs of running the
schools if not all. Though the last Medium Term Budget Framework included development
costs for community polytechnics, the Government has not established any community
polytechnics yet.

Further, the Government is also proposing to steadily vocationalize secondary education through
Comprehensive and Vocational Schools. The curriculum for the new Comprehensive and
Vocational schools has been proposed during the Fifth Education Sector Review last April.
Both comprehensive and vocational schools are a movement to steadily vocationalize the
secondary curriculum. The proposed comprehensive/vocational curriculum increased the
number of subjects for S1-S2 from a minimum of 14 (Table 25) to 15; for S3-S4 from a
minimum of 9 to 10 subjects. More importantly, in the new comprehensive schools, the number
of vocational subjects to be taught is proposed to increase from at least 3 to 6 for S1-S2; and
from at least 1 to 2. In the new vocational schools, the number of vocational subjects for S3-S4
will be further increased to 4 subjects.

The report expresses concern with the Government proposal of (a) Creating a national network
of community polytechnics and (b) Steady vocationalization of secondary education by creating
comprehensive and vocational schools. The reasons are affordability and sustainability, as
technical education has proven to be at least twice as expensive as a regular O-level school.;
equity, as most of target population, namely the P7 leavers and S1-S4 dropouts will be from the
poorest section of the population and will not be able to fund programs in their communities;
and most importantly desirability, as there is evidence that technical and vocational students are
not mastering the basic competencies that are most valued by employers in the formal sector
(over two thirds of technical students fail the math and English tests) and a heavier dose of
vocational subjects will further reduce the teaching and learning in core subjects. Additionally,
there appears to be a lack of demand for such education from both the parents and employers.
Finally, it is estimated that 400 firms currently have in-house training programs and prefer to do
their own training.

We argue that the best vocational education (even for those who will leave school at the end of
secondary education and enter the world of work) consists of giving students strong generic
skills in basic literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills, and the ability to work in teams
and that lower secondary education (at least the public sector) should teach students how to
learn. This position has been emphasized by the recent World Bank study in Sub-Saharan
“Vocational Skills Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Phase I Synthesis” which concluded that
basic education is one of the most important skills for productivity and economic growth.

STRATEGIC PLAN AND PROCESS OF WORKING FOR PPET.

It is paramount that the Ministry should, through a consultative process, develop an Policy
Framework and Strategies for the PPET sector, with goals that are realistic and clearly laid out.
There is also a need for targets and indicators in coverage, quality and efficiency over the next 10
years. The Strategic Plan should also lay out the means or strategies for reaching those goals.
These proposed broad options are suggestions that can be evaluated with respect to anticipated
cost and incorporated into such a Strategic Plan. To the extent possible, the PPET sub-sector
should emulate the primary sector and use Medium Term Budget Framework to prioritize
activities and adopt the semi-annual Education Sector Review as a major monitoring tool.
At the same time, there is an urgent need for a quick decision on key issues such as Community
Polytechnics and increasing the efficiency of the current system. The Government is already
committing itself to plans it cannot afford: the current budget plan included the Community
Polytechnics; there has also been pressure to hire additional number of secondary teachers.
These key issues need to be resolved as a matter of emergency.

BROAD POLICY OPTIONS

The report offers nine broad policy recommendations for the Ministry to consider incorporating
in such a Strategic Plan. The options are not meant to be prescriptive, but are rather a selected
menu of possible strategies for meeting the challenges discussed in the report. Policy options
are clustered into the following three areas: (a) short-term focus on increasing the efficiency of
the use of current resources as a major means for expansion; (b) medium term focus on more
equitable distribution of public financing, and the reduction of cost burden especially on poor
and other disadvantaged households, and (c) long term focus on structural and curriculum
reforms for improving the quality and relevance.

These options need to be placed in the context of continued emphasis to improve the quality of
education, reduce the age of first enrollment and to achieve greater internal efficiency at the
primary level. There is a tendency that such critical linkage between primary and secondary
may be ignored by policy makers. Quality improvement measures at primary level are central
to the improvement of coverage, equity, and quality of secondary education.

They also need to be placed in a context of continued effort for improving school-level
management. Much of the innovation in teaching and learning and in maneuvering the
resources happens at the school level. The Study of the Provision of Instructional Materials
discovered that many headmasters, on their own, are scheduling their classes in such a way so
that every student can have access to a textbook during the class session. Such energy at the
school level should be harnessed. However, the capacity of school-level management needs to
be further strengthened through capacity building and other motivational incentives.

Further, in discussing the proposed broad policy options, it is important to bear in mind that large
differences exist between regions, districts, and even within districts. The broad policy options
will have to be tailored to the particularities of the local context.

A. Short-term Focus on Increasing the Efficiency of the Current System as A Major Means
for Expansion and Quality Improvement (within the next 5 years). The short-term
measures are ways of improving the secondary coverage without requiring significant changes in
resource allocation pattern. It has to be emphasized that the proposed reform measures, though,
may result in efficiency gains if implemented successfully, it may require extra-funding during
the transition period. This is where the EFAG may come in to assistance, based on sound and
agreed policy decisions.

1. Requiring all secondary teachers to teach at least two subjects. About 45% of secondary
teachers teach only one subject area, even though all teachers have been trained to teach two
subjects. Without increasing the number of subjects teacher teach, it will be almost impossible
to increase the overall pupil:teacher ratio without altering the curriculum. And yet revising the
curriculum, though may be ultimately desired, is more a medium to long term undertaking rather
than a short term one.

2. Increasing pupil:teacher ratio. This is a core strategy for improving the efficiency of the
system. Increasing the overall pupil:teacher ratio from the current level of 17 to 30 will, for
example, increase the enrollment by more than 150% without having to incur additional costs.
The increase of PTR does not mean drastic measures such as firing teachers, instead it can be
achieved by reducing the hiring rate and restricting the hiring only to teachers of subjects in
demand such as math, English, and sciences. However, the burden of such increase should not
fall on the more crowded schools. And the process has to be closely linked to the rationalization
of curriculum and teacher workloads and attention to deployment.

3. Distinguishing the secondary (O-level) versus post-secondary (post O-level) institutions both
conceptually and administratively

    1 Create an integrated secondary school system to include general O-level and secondary
      technical and farm schools under a single system of administration, governance, finance,
      and curriculum focus.
          o As discussed earlier, technical and vocational education at the „O‟-level is
             expensive, not effective in transmitting basic competencies as compared to
             general secondary, and are generally not a preferred option for families. The
             Government should entertain the idea of converting these schools into regular
             „O‟-level day secondary schools.
          o This also means that the Government will not engage in massive construction of
             community polytechnics. At most, the Community Polytechnics should only be
             piloted in selected districts with a cheaper version of design which can be easily
             converted into regular day O-level secondary school in the future

    2 Re-organise post secondary BTVET institutions into a single system of Further
      Education institutions of viable size and invest in improving quality and efficiency
      through either larger multi faculty colleges or larger single field of study institutions. A
      strategic review is needed of post school provision to re-energise, rationalise, and
      increase value for money in this sector. There is scope to adopt more demand led
      approaches to enrolment planning and institutional development, provide incentives and
      flexibility to allow Colleges to increase participation using cost recovery, and generate a
      dynamic, post school, occupationally and professionally orientated education and
      training system.

B. Medium Term Focus on More Equitable Distribution of Public Financing as A Major
Strategy for Improving the Coverage, Equity and Quality of PPET (within the next 5-10
years)

1. Broaden the concept and forms of Capitation Grant to schools:

   1 Capitation Grant for Non-wage Expenses.           To protect the expenditure on essential
       teaching and learning materials and equipment, it seems necessary to revise the existing
       capitation grant so that it can only be used for non-wage and non-boarding expenditures,
       as the current practice is to use the capitation grant to subsidize teacher salary or to hire
       additional private teachers. Variations of the formula can be further introduced to
       address the inequity in public financing. For example:
           o To further improve the equity of public financing, it is possible to build into the
               capitation grant formula so that schools serving predominantly poor students have
               a higher allocation on a per capita basis.
           o More radically the Government may stop paying capitation grants to elite
               boarding schools serving predominantly wealthy families (one important
               indication is the high level of fees charged).
           o Or the Government could still provide such capitation grant to the elite boarding
               schools, but based on enrollment of the poor and day students in those schools.
           o The Government could entertain the idea of further supporting the private sector
               by proving the same grant to private schools. There is no reason why such a grant
               should not be provided to private and community schools. Of course, given the
               current resource constraints, the Government will not be in a position to provide
               such support immediately. The priority still lies in the reform of public financing
               to public schools.

   2 Formula-based Teacher Salary Grant. Much of the variation in per student expenditure
     lies in the proportion of Graduate Teachers teaching in the school. This variation is also
     the major source of inequity of public financing, as rich students tend to go to schools
     which are better endowed with such teachers. To correct the situation, the Ministry may
     entertain the idea of providing a formula-based capitation grant to school, earmarked for
     teacher salary only. The schools will be in a position to decide how to use this grant and
     determine the number of teachers, proportion of graduate teachers to be hired, and how
     much to pay the teachers. The value of the grant will be determined by the Ministry of
     Education so that it is sufficient to cover a certain number of teachers. This option is not
     as drastic as it sounds, as secondary schools de facto already have a large degree of
     freedom in hiring of teachers and in reallocating their resources. Such a grant can also
     be extended to private and community schools in the future. However, there may be
     resistance from Teachers‟ Union as the strategy implies a change in teacher contractual
     terms. Also attention needs to be paid so that teachers are not exploited by the system.

2. Increase average secondary school size to reap economies of scale and gradually reduce the
number of schools with enrollment less than 250. This policy outcome can be accomplished
through merging small secondary schools. There is a longstanding concern that enrolments are
too low at many secondary schools in Uganda to allow economies of scale to be reaped. This is
particularly important since the delivery of secondary curriculum usually requires libraries,
workshops, and other expensive equipment. The Unit Cost Study found that there seems to be
an optimal school size of between 500 and 750 students taking into account per student
expenditure and manageability. Seventy percent of private rural schools have less than 250
students. The corresponding figures for private peri-urban and urban private schools are 53% and
44% respectively. About 23% of the government schools in rural areas have enrollment smaller
than 250; the corresponding figures for government peri-urban and urban schools are 6% and
7%. Special consideration has to be given to sparsely populated areas where secondary schools
have a small catchment areas. This is particularly relevant if the Uganda Government decides to
provide the “O” level education or at least 2 to 3 years of “O” level education for free, as part of
the basic education movement, in which case basic education becomes a right in itself.

3. Expand the existing scholarship scheme to cover more needy students including
AIDS-orphans. The PPET system faces the challenges of not only efficiency, access, and
quality, but also equity. The equity can not be expected to improve by itself without explicit
intervention from the Government. Bursary scheme remains an effective strategy. An
important policy implication of the analysis is that the bursaries should be targeted at the poor
and other disadvantaged students. It is not clear, though, to what extent is the current bursary
scheme benefiting students with real needs. Expansion the bursary scheme should therefore be
preceded by careful study of the current scheme. It is conceivable that bursaries can be targeted
to schools which meet certain performance criteria and which charge fees below certain level (as
the rich perhaps will not be opting such cheap schools). Or bursaries can also be used for day
students attending boarding schools. And special provision should also be made to orphans
including AIDS-orphans.

C. Long Term Focus on Structure, Curriculum, and Teacher Reform to Improve the
Quality and Relevance of PPET education

1. Structure and Curriculum Reform. In the long term, Uganda needs to examine critically its
structure and curriculum focus for PPET, in the context of cultural, social, and economic
development and in the context of regional and international integration. It needs to ask what
core competencies and skills are expected of a secondary graduate and then determine the
structure of the education system, the teaching method, and curriculum which will all be geared
toward delivering such outputs. Relatedly, the country also needs to decide whether it will
adopt a basic education cycle which will cover primary and selected years of lower secondary
education with a curriculum focus on literacy, numeracy, and problem solving skills; and
enriched curriculum for higher secondary education with more focus on science and technology.

2. Reform Teacher Education and Teacher Incentive. Both pre-service and in-service of
teachers need to be reviewed. Very little is known currently in what happens at the teacher
training colleges, however, there is some evidence that teacher education would benefit from
improved efficiency and relevance at the colleges. Teaching and learning at the colleges tend to
be mostly content driven, with insufficient attention to developing teacher professional skills and
attitudes, and heavily teacher-centered. Reduce salary differentials between graduates and non
graduates doing the same jobs and link bonuses to workloads to improve productivity and
performance.

3. Reform secondary examination and assessment system. The secondary teaching and
learning in Uganda is heavily influenced by the examinations upon graduating from primary
level, Uganda Certificate of Education, and at the end of “O” level, Uganda Advanced
Certificate of Education. Both examinations are designed mainly for the purposes of selecting
students onto the next level. In some sense, it is inevitable that teachers and students will teach
and learn to the examinations if spaces in PPET are limited. With the gradual expansion in
coverage, it may be possible to introduce other forms of assessment such as continuous
assessment or national assessment of student aptitudes, which will provide more valuable
insights into the teaching and learning process in the classrooms and help inform the curriculum
review.

4. Increase the Resource Allocation for PPET

   1 Intra-sectoral shifts. At present, 65 percent of the education budget is earmarked for
     primary education. In fact, the Government is committed to guaranteeing 65% of its
     education budget to primary education in the next few years. It is conceivable that after
     a few years when the primary situation is more stabilized and most of the over age
     students will have been absorbed into the system, primary budget may not need to
     consume 65%. Further, though reforms in the higher education may result in higher
     public finance in the short term, if implemented well, they may result in higher education
     institutions to be autonomous and hence do not require a large share of the Ministry‟s
     budget in the long term. This is going to be a national decision.
   2 Inter-sectoral shifts. If PPET were to become a high priority area, there may be a
     possible further commitment of funds from some other sector to the education sector.
     This is clearly a decision that must be made at the national level, with consultation and
     concurrence by the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet. The share of the budget currently
     going to education in Uganda is extremely high already by international standards.

THE PROJECTED COST OF ADOPTING SHORT-TERM EFFICIENCY MEASURES

What is the resource implication of adopting the proposed short-term efficiency measures? The
3 short term policy options center on the increase of pupil:teacher ratio via creating core subject
clusters and having teachers teach at least two subjects. The cost projections assume that the
initial costs of curriculum adaptation are minimum or can be shouldered by the EFAG and that
the Ministry is only concerned with the development costs (for piloting Community Polytechnics
and building regular day secondary schools) and the recurrent costs of wages and capitation
grants.

Two scenarios have been costed. Both scenarios center on increasing system efficiency via
increasing the Pupil:teacher ratio, though at a different rate. The baseline model includes a
modest agenda of reform which anticipates a gentle rise in the pupil teacher ratio. It would allow
about 200 new schools to be built by 2006 and 470 by 2011. The latter is sufficient to ensure all
sub-counties have a secondary school by 2011. It would also allow the secondary GER to climb
towards 50%, the level at which gender parity is likely to become a reality. And finally, it only
requires about 20-22% of overall MOE budget to be devoted to secondary and BTVET. The
report regards the baseline model to be more politically feasible as compared to the radical
model which will require a much faster increase of PTR. Therefore the report recommends that
the Baseline model be adopted for implementation. A process of further national and regional
consultation on these options has been agreed during the April 2002 Education Sector Review.
And the final action plan will be presented to the October 2002 Review and incorporated into the
Medium Term Budget Framework.
                                Broad Policy Option for
      Improving the Efficiency, Coverage and Equity, and Quality and Relevance of
                                Post-primary Education

                                   Short-term                           Medium-term
                           (within the next 2-3 years)            (within the next 3-5 years)          (beyo

Efficiency              Require all secondary teachers to
(focus on curriculum    teach at least two subjects. There
and teacher             are currently 45% of teachers who
rationalization)        teach only one subject.

                        Increase the Pupil:teacher ratio     Continue to increase PTR so that it       Mainta
                        gradually from 20 to 30              reaches a sustainable national average    nationa
                                                             desired by the Country                    consid
                                                                                                       deviati
                                                                                                       geogra
                                                                                                       demog
                                                             Increase the average secondary school     Mainta
                                                             size to reap economies of scale where     averag
                                                             feasible                                  recogn
                                                                                                       needs o
                                                                                                       areas
                                   Short-term                             Medium-term
                           (within the next 2-3 years)             (within the next 3-5 years)          (beyo
Coverage and Equity                                          Revise the current capitation grant       Contin
(focus on financing                                          scheme so that only the non-wage          implem
reform and targeted                                          expenses are covered; further             grants
assistance to needy                                          introduce variations of the formula to    and qu
students)                                                    address the inequity in public
                                                             financing:
                                                                 -20 a higher capitation grant to
                                                                     schools serving predominantly
                                                                     poor or other disadvantaged
                                                                     children
                                                                 -21 stop capitation grant to elite
                                                                     boarding schools, or only pay
                                                                     capitation grant based on the
                                                                     number of poor students
                                                                     enrolled in those schools
                                                                 -22 entertain the idea of providing
                                                                     such grant to private schools
                                                                 -23
                                                             Pilot formula-based salary grant so       Implem
                                                             that schools can decide the number        salary
                                                             and qualifications of teachers to be
hired.

                      Expand and        Institu
revise the existing bursary scheme so   schem
that more poor and other
disadvantaged children can benefit
from the bursaries.
                                    Short-term                         Medium-term
                            (within the next 2-3 years)          (within the next 3-5 years)    (beyo
Quality and Relevance                                                                          Review
(focus on structure,                                                                           curricu
curriculum, teaching                                                                           to natio
reform)                                                                                        interna
                                                                                               establi
                                                                                               cycle w
                                                                                               focusin
                                                                                               numer
                                                                                               proble
                                                                                               Reform
                                                                                               and tea
                                                                                               structu

                                                                                               Reform
                                                                                               examin

                                                                                               Increas
                                                                                               allocat
                                                                                               (subjec
                    Short-term               Medium-term              Long-term
                (within the next 2-3      (within the next 3-5   (beyond the next 5
                       years)                     years)                years)
Management and Create an integrated      Capacity building at    Continue
Governance     secondary school          district and school     strengthening
               system: convert the       level                   school-level
               existing                                          management
               secondary-level
               technical schools to
               regular O-level day
               secondary;

                  Re-organize and
                  re-energize the post
                  secondary BTVET
                                                         1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 The Importance of Post-Primary Education

Post-primary education, defined as the transitional education subsector between the primary and
tertiary education subsectors, is generally less well studied and understood than is the primary
education subsector, particularly in developing countries. In the past, widely observed higher
rates of return to primary than to higher levels of education have justified concentrating on
primary education expansion and quality improvements in the developing world. Much emphasis
is usually placed on primary education, for the reason that literacy is so fundamental to a
minimally educated labor force and informed voting public. At the same time, equity-based
arguments provided the justification for broader primary than post-primary and tertiary coverage.

However, over the past two decades, it has become increasingly clear that, notwithstanding
justifications for the primacy of primary education in development strategies, secondary and
tertiary education should not be neglected. Recent empirical work has shown that post-primary
enrollment has a positive relationship with real per capita GDP and a negative relationship with
fertility (Brist & Caplan, 2000). Figure 1 illustrates cross-sectional data from the 2000 World
Education Report that show a positive trend line between GNP per capita and gross secondary
enrollment (GER) ratio among African countries, indicating that GNP per capita increases in the
GER.

                            Figure 1: GNP Per Capita and Secondary Gross Enrollment Ratio

                  100

                   90

                   80

                   70
  GER Secondary




                   60
                                                                           Trend Line
                   50

                   40

                   30

                   20

                   10
                              Uganda
                    0
                        0    500       1000          1500           2000     2500       3000
                                              GNP Per Capita 1997
As a vast wealth of literature already exists testifying to the importance of secondary education,
this paper will focus on the contribution of secondary education in the specific context of
Uganda‟s economic, social, and cultural development rather than repeat what is outlined in the
more general literature. Our additional argument is that, even within the education system,
higher levels of education are important for training the teachers and administrators that staff the
primary school system. In fact, by training mid-level technicians and preparing future
professionals, post-primary education plays a similar role in other areas that are key to economic
development. In short, Post-primary education can be thought of as the fundamental link
between primary and higher education, as well as a fundamental determinant of the future path of
tertiary students, and thus of much of the potential for economic development in a country.

Finally, secondary education can be a very effective vehicle for intensive school-based
HIV/AIDS education and prevention programs as children of secondary education are generally
sexually active.

Millennium Development Goals. The importance of PPET is further highlighted by the
Millennium Development Goals which the Uganda government also signed up for. Specially,
the MDG goals for Uganda education are: (a) Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys
and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling, and (b) Eliminate
gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and to all levels of
education no later than 2015. The goal of eliminating gender disparity is particularly relevant to
secondary education.

1.2 Purposes of the Study

This study focuses on post-primary education in Uganda, discussing issues of access, equity,
efficiency, management and financing, and makes broad recommendations on the way forward.
As of 1997, the Ugandan overall secondary gross enrollment ratio of 12% is well below the
average (22%) among countries of similar GNP per capita income (as indicated by the trend line
in Figure (1) even at that time. There are quite a few countries with per capita income similar or
lower than that of Uganda but have much higher secondary GER. For example, Nigeria in 1997
has a GER of more than 30% whereas its income per capita was only US$280. Egypt, on the
other hand, achieved a secondary GER of 70% with a per capita income of US$1200.

The system is not operating at the optimal level, i.e. it could achieve higher GER based on its
income level. Though policy-making should not be based on such crude comparative statistics,
we can still say that theoretically, given current economic conditions, Uganda should expect the
overall secondary GER to reach a minimum of 22% of the secondary age group and adjust such
expectation upwards as the economy continues to grow.

Specific to the Ugandan context, the introduction of the Universal Primary Education (UPE) in
1996 has had huge impact on primary education. At the beginning of 1990s, the gross primary
enrollment ratio was only 87%, basic inputs were lacking, and households were paying too much
for primary education. The President's decision in 1996 to remove fees for four children per
family removed that burden and also sent a signal to people that education is important. An
additional 2.2 million children (1.1 m girls and 1.1 m boys) responded immediately, bringing the
total primary enrollment to 5.3 million in 1997. By 2001 total enrollment had reached 6.9
million. The increased primary enrollment will inevitably have an effect on PPET. In fact, the
first cohort of UPE students are entering the PPET next year. In anticipation of the increase in
post-primary enrollment that should result in the aftermath of Universal Primary Education
(UPE), the Government of Uganda has become increasingly aware of the importance of
post-primary education and is interested in further expanding and improving upon the system.
In fact, President Museveni announced during the last election in 2001 that he intends to pursue
“Free Secondary Education.”

While this intention is in and of itself a step in the right direction, no consideration has yet been
given to the financial implication of such a policy. Nevertheless, the Ministry felt motivated by
the Government‟s political will and with support from donors, started a process of policy-making
for the PPET sector. At the same time, there is a realization that critical information on
coverage, equity, and efficiency, management and financing of the current system is needed to
provide inputs into the process of policy making with regards to the post-primary education
subsector. Despite recent reforms, especially in primary education, little is known about
post-primary education in Uganda, and this shortage of information has, in turn, affected the
amount and quality of research available. Apart from the Ministry‟s annual school survey, there
is very little data on post-primary education in Uganda, and even the Ministry‟s data can not be
entirely relied upon because of the variation in the response rate from year to year. In addition,
Uganda‟s post-primary education needs to be examined in a larger international context to
determine where it is currently and what might be viable options for improving the efficiency
and expanding the system in a sustainable manner.

Added to these complications is the fact that the issues surrounding post-primary education are
much more complicated and controversial than in primary education, where there is much more
consensus. The post-primary subsector differs from the primary subsector in a number of ways
that are significant for policy design. First, whereas in primary schools parents are the sole
decision makers, children of post-primary school age participate in the decision making process
with regards to school attendance. Second, because of the interface with the labor market, the
opportunity cost of post-primary education, and that of upper secondary education in particular,
is significantly higher than in primary education. In developing countries, most children
qualifying to attend post-primary school are also able to obtain remunerated employment outside
the home. In addition, older daughters become valuable substitutes for maternal chores, and
teenaged boys can be entrusted with the family herd as experienced and productive agricultural
workers. In short, the immediately visible returns from child labor in the family may outweigh
the potential future benefits of post-primary schooling from the parental point of view.

Furthermore, there is significant controversy about the purpose of post-primary education, as
opposed to the purpose of primary or tertiary education, and there has therefore been much
disagreement about the form that such education should take. Should post-primary education be
a general preparatory stepping-stone to the academic rigors of tertiary education, or should it
focus more on practical vocational skills that are directly applicable in the workplace upon
graduation? This, and other issues, such as the way in which resources should be used in the
schools, the design of the curriculum, and teacher training and the provision of physical
infrastructure, as well as who should pay for secondary education, are primary points of
contention and, as such, have made the process of development of the post-primary education
system in Uganda a difficult but fundamentally important task.

1.3 Sector Report Development Process

Despite the fact that there had never been any explicit policy framework for PPET, the MOES
policy to cope with the projected enrollment growth, as reflected in forward budgets and
described by senior policy makers, seem to be the following:

   5 Creating a national network of community polytechnics
   6 Steady vocationalization of secondary education by creating comprehensive schools
   7 Creating “seed” secondary schools in districts and locations where there are no, or few
     existing secondary schools
   8 Relaxing current controls, restraints and quality assurance checks on private education in
     order to encourage the rapid growth of private secondary schools.

These policy proposals from the Ministry, though not explicit and coherent, have been the
catalysts of a dialogue between the Education Funding Agency Group (EFAG) members and the
Ministry on PPET, as the EFAG members have become increasingly concerned that the proposed
options are not coherent and may very well be financially unsustainable and further may not
even serve the long-term purposes of PPET. In fact, it is against this background that the
Ministry started to carry out these studies with technical and financial support from the EFAG.

In order to clarify many of the issues surrounding reform of the post-primary education
subsector, the Ministry initiated policy dialogues with the EFAG in late 2000. It was then
agreed that the Ministry would not immediately implement the above polices and instead that the
EFAG would assist the Ministry in the preparation of a PPET Policy Framework and Strategies,
followed by an Implementation Plan for approximately the next 10 years. It was further agreed
that the Ministry would prepare a set of Terms of References (with support from EFAG
members) for a series of inter-related studies on the PPET that were designed to diagnose the
current situation of PPET provision. In addition, EFAG members would provide financial and
technical support to the studies.

At the same time, a process of consultation was tentatively agreed upon that included the
involvement of a consultant in the preparation of the final Policy Framework and Strategies for
the PPET sector, the consultation of the key stakeholders, and the presentation of the Policy
Framework and Strategies during one of the Education Sector Review meetings. In fact, while
this report is being prepared, the Ministry has also embarked on the preparation of the Policy
Framework and the process of consultation, with support from EFAG.

With support from the Education Funding Agency Group, including the World Bank, DFID, and
the European Union, the following studies were conducted during the period from September
2000 to February 2002:

   1   Teacher Utilization
   2   Coverage, Equity, and Efficiency
   3   Management and Internal Efficiency
   4   Firm Demand Analysis
   5   PPET Quality Study
   6   PPET Unit Cost Study
   7   Financing Options for PPET
   8   Study on Instructional Materials

It was expected that these studies would fill in important knowledge gaps with regards to the
post-primary education subsector in Uganda and that, together, they would provide the basis for
a consultative process that would ultimately lead to a Ugandan Post-primary Education Policy
Framework and Strategies over a 10 year horizon. In particular, the study will examine the
financial, sustainability, and equity implications of the various policy promises including the
establishment of community polytechnics and the vocationalization of the secondary curriculum.

The Role of the World Bank in Education and PPET. The World Bank has been involved in
supporting the education sector in Uganda since the 1960s. Table 1 indicates that the amount of
financial support in education peaked during the period of 1990-1999 when the World Bank
provided a total of US$133 million for the education sector. During the last couple of years, the
World Bank support for education has taken on a different approach and been mainly through
Poverty Reduction Strategy Credit which involves all sectors including education. The
education sector is the major beneficiary of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Credit.

                               Table 1: World Bank Lending to Uganda
                                         1963-    1970-     1980-    1990-
                  Uganda                  1969     1979      1989     1999
Total IBRD/IDA (millions of current
    All sectors                             22        23      832     1,838
    Human development                       10         7       97       290
   Education                                10         7       54       133
Number of operations
    All sectors                              4         3       27        36
    Human Development                        1         1        3         6
    Education                                1         1        2         2
Education sector share (%)
    Of total lending amount                46.3     31.2       6.5      7.2
    Of total number of projects             25      33.3       7.4      5.6
    Of lending amount for human dev.       100       100       56      45.8
    Of number of human dev. projects       100       100      66.7     33.3




World Bank also provides ongoing support to policy development in various sectors. The need
for such a support is made more acute by the sector wide investment approach that Uganda has
adopted. In the area of the PPET, out of the above eight studies, the World Bank provided
financial support to six studies, including the following:

   9    Teacher Utilization
   10   Coverage, Equity, and Efficiency
   11   Firm Demand Analysis
   12   PPET Quality Study
   13   PPET Unit Cost Study
   14   Financing Options for PPET

In addition, the World Bank provided technical support to all eight studies at every stage,
including the development of TOR, the selection of consultants, the provision of comments on
each draft and final report, and participation in the overall dialogue on PPET related issues. The
World Bank‟s financial support came from a variety of sources, which include the Norwegian
Trust Fund, the PHRD Grant, and Bank Budget.

This sector report pulls together all commissioned PPET studies including those financed by
other donors and aims to serve as a background paper to the consultative process currently going
on. It strives to synthesize the studies and present a comprehensive picture of Ugandan
post-primary education, its achievements to date, the challenges ahead, and broad options for
reform.

1.4 Sources of Data

The study used data from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data sources include
readily available information from the Ministry of Education and Sports, the Ministry of
Finance, and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and data collected in the areas of unit cost, teacher
utilization, and student achievement specifically for this sector work. Secondary data refer to
data and analysis contained in the consultant reports and any other past research done on
Ugandan education .
1.5 Definition of Post-Primary Education

We define post-primary education as lower secondary education (grades S1, S2, S3, and S4),
upper secondary (grades S5 and S6), which immediately follows the 7 years of primary
education, and a parallel technical and vocational education system that consists of technical and
farm schools immediately following the primary cycle. Technical institutes that follow the
completion of secondary education are considered tertiary and are, therefore, not part of the
study. More emphasis is given to the grades S1-S4, O-level segment of the sector as compared
to grades S5-S6, the A-level of general secondary education. Information is very limited on
technical and vocational education; however, whenever data permit, we include the analysis of
technical and farm schools at the post-primary level.

1.6 Organization of the Sector Report

The remainder of the report is organized into five major sections. Section 2 will provide a
summary of major demographic and socio-economic indicators so as to place the subsequent
analysis of Ugandan post-primary education in its proper context. Section 3 will provide an
overview of the Ugandan education sector, with emphasis on its overall structure, size, and basic
education indicators. Section 4 is the main section of the report, which will discuss the context
of PPET, its performance, inputs, cost and financing. Wherever possible, the Ugandan
experience is measured against international experiences. Section 4 will also discuss technical
and vocational education and the private provision of PPET. Section 5 is the PPET enrollment
projection from 2001 to 2012. Section 6 presents the conclusions, and Section 7 will suggest
broad directions in which policy design could proceed.
                 2. DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT

Uganda is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations. It is bounded to the North by Sudan, to
the East by Kenya, to the South by Tanzania and Rwanda, and to the West by Zaire. The
country comprises an area of more than 230,000 square kilometers. Its territory includes Lakes
George and Kyoga and part of Lakes Victoria, Edward and Albert; and the River Nile from its
source at Lake Victoria to Nimule on the Sudanese border.

Uganda had a total estimated population of 22 million in 2000. The population growth rate is
currently stable at about 2.7%. It has substantial natural resources, including fertile soils,
regular rainfall, and sizable mineral deposits of copper and cobalt.        However, during the
turbulent years of Idi Amin‟s regime, Uganda became one of the poorest countries in the world.
In 1987, the new government, led by President Museveni, embarked on an economic recovery
program aimed at reducing poverty by restoring fiscal discipline and monetary stability and
rehabilitating infrastructure (economic, social and institutional). The recovery program further
encompassed civil service reform, revised investment and incentive structures, and made a rapid
move to a market-determined exchange rate.

The impact of the combination of government-led reform and development assistance has been
impressive, as reflected by sustained real GDP growth and a 21 percent drop in poverty
(headcount index) to 44 % in the five-year period since 1992 (World Bank).

Table 2 indicates that, by 2000, Uganda had a GNP per capita of US$320, which was still low
compared to the average of US$500 for Sub-Saharan Africa and US$410 for low-income
countries. Uganda is predominantly a rural country, as only 13% of the population live in urban
areas. Life expectancy at birth is 42 years old, which is low compared to the Sub-Saharan
average of 50. Twenty-six percent of children under 5 are malnourished, and access to
improved water sources is only about 41%, which is low when compared with 43% for
Sub-Saharan Africa and 64% for all low-income countries.

                                   Table 2: Poverty and Social Indicators
          2000                              Uganda         Sub-Saharan Low-income
                                                           Africa        Countries
          Population                                 22.1            642          2,417
          GNP per capita                              320            500            410
          Population growth rate                       2.7           2.6             1.9
          Labor force growth rate                      2.7           2.6             2.3
          Urban population                              14            34              31
          Life expectancy at birth                      42            50              60
          Infant mortality (per 1000 live
          births)                                     83              92             77
          Child malnutrition (% of
          children under 5)                           26              32             43
          Access to improved water
          source (% of population)                    50              43             64
                 Source: World Bank Development Indicators, 2001.
Table 3 presents Uganda‟s projected populations up to 2025. In 2000, about 7.6 million (35%)
of the total population were of primary and secondary school going age (ages 6-12 for primary
and ages 13-18 for secondary). This proportion is projected to increase to slightly less than 39%
by 2025, when the projected school-age population will reach about 12.2 million.


                  Table 3: Population Projections from 2000 (estimated) to 2025, Uganda

                    2000          2005           2010           2015           2020       2025

All ages           22063         23687          25401          27312          29370       31303

Ages 6-12           4630          5381           5717           6070           6543       6963

Ages13-18           3061          3600           4274           4673           4939       5346

                                      Source: Edstats, World Bank.



Finally, HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to affect Uganda. Despite the fact that HIV/AIDS
prevalence rate has dropped from more than 20% in the early 1990s to only 8% in 1999, many of
those who were affected started to die, resulting in high attrition of the labor force and a large
number of orphans. The low life expectancy can be partially attributed to the HIV/AIDS
epidemic. In education, it is estimated that one out of every nine primary schools in SSA can,
on average, expect to have an AIDS-related death each year. Further, according to a recent
study (Bennell et al., 2002), 20% of the population below the age 15 are orphans, one third of
which are AIDS-orphans. The implication of the epidemic is therefore particularly serious for
the education sector in terms of its teaching force, the education and care of the orphans, and the
school-based HIV/AIDS prevention programs.
                                        3. EDUCATION SECTOR OVERVIEW

3.1 Structure of the Education System

The Ugandan education system follows a 7-4-2-4 pattern: seven years of primary education,
followed by 4 years of lower secondary or “Ordinary” level, 2 years of upper secondary or
“Advanced” level, and a further 4 years of tertiary education. In parallel, there exists a technical
and vocational track, including 3-year technical and farm programs that follow immediately after
primary education and 3- or 4-year post-secondary technical programs.

The following Figure 2 illustrates this structure. Selection and certification occur at the end of
the primary education level, at the Ordinary level of secondary, and at the Advanced level of
secondary by means of national examinations. These respectively include the Primary School
Leaving Exam, the Uganda Certificate of Education, and the Uganda Advanced Certificate of
Education. Alternative technical certificates also exist for students choosing the technical track,
including the Uganda Junior Technical Certificate which is taken at the end of 3-year
post-primary technical and farm programs, and the Uganda Advanced Technical Certificate,
which is taken at the end of post-secondary technical programs.



                     Uganda Educational Structure
        University             Technical Institutes



       Upper Secondary
          Education



         Lower Secondary                              Technical and Farm
            Education                                      Schools




                       Primary Education (official ages 6-12)


                                                                       Figure 2



The official age of entry is six for primary education. However, as in many countries, most
children enter at a later age at around 9 years old.

There is no legally imposed age of entry for post-primary education. The official, or “target,”
age of entry for post-primary schools is age 13. However, since most children enter primary
school late, the de facto post-primary starting age is on average much higher than 13, starting at
about age 15.

3.2 Size of the Education Sector

The Uganda education system is large by African standards.                        According to the officially
published Education Statistical Abstract, the system comprises more than 6.5 million primary
students, about 0.6 million secondary and technical vocational students, and about 55,000 tertiary
students. The teaching force is also fairly large, with almost 150,000 teachers teaching at all
levels of the formal education system. There are about 14,000 formal educational institutions at
all levels.

                                 Table 4: Schools, Enrollments, and Teachers by Type
                        Primary             Secondary             Technical&Farm        Tertiary *
# of Schools                       11,578                 1,892                    29                  40
Enrollment                    656,559,013              518,931                  7,019              55,000
# of Teachers                     110,336                30,384                                     2600
* statistics for tertiary are rough estimates only, including 12 major universities, 10 National Teacher Training
Colleges, Colleges of Commerce and Technology and other tertiary institutions.
Source: Education Statistical Abstract 2000, MOES.

At both the primary and secondary levels, schools can be classified by ownership into
government, community, or private schools. The Government pays teachers and provides
capitation grants to government schools only. Neither community nor other private schools
receive any subsidy from the government. The distinction between community school and
private school is, however, not always clear. Community schools are mostly located in rural
areas, and they usually hope to be converted into government schools.
Except for a few private schools established by religious bodies which offer high quality
education, the majority of private and community schools are not well resourced and provide
relatively low quality education. Government schools, on the other hand, tend to be better
resources and provide better quality education than compared to average private or community
schools.

                          Table 5: Enrollment (and number of schools) by ownership
                   Primary             Secondary
Government                 5,351,099             216,292
                              (8,074)               (490)
Community                    839,008             178,510
                              (2,169)               (811)
Private                      309,200             120,885
                              (1,228)               (579)




3.3 Selected Basic Indicators of the Education System in Uganda

Like the rest of the Ugandan economy, the education system suffered under the Idi Amin regime.
Primary and secondary coverage remained rather stagnant in the 1970s, and the quality of
education deteriorated substantially. However, significant improvements have been made since
the establishment of the new Government. The most notable achievement has been the
Universal Primary Education policy initiated in 1994, which, in effect, abolished primary school
fees for up to four children per family. By 1999/2000, total primary enrollment was 6 million,
more than double what it had been in 1994. Gross primary enrollment reached 124%, and net
primary enrollment reached 93% (1999/2000 Household Survey). The quality of education
aside, this level of primary coverage (near universal) is almost comparable to the more
developed regions of Northern America, Asia and Europe.

Education stock indicators have also shown significant improvement. As of 1999, UNESCO
reports that 38% of Ugandans age 15 and above are illiterate. This is largely consistent with
household survey estimates, which indicate that 32% of the population age 15 and above cannot
read and write. Compared to the UNESCO estimate of 42% adult illiteracy for Sub-Saharan
Africa in 1997 (World Education Report, 2000), Uganda seems to be performing relatively
better. However, owing to low income and life expectancy, UNDP‟s Human Development
Index, combining indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income, still ranked
Uganda 158th out of 174 countries. The HDI of 0.40 is low compared to the Sub-Saharan
average of 0.46 in 1998.

          Figure 3: % Completing Primary and 3 years of Secondary Education from 1953 to 1993


                               Percentage of Population Completing Primary and Secondary from 1953-
                                                               1993


                          45
                                          % COMPLET ED
                          40              PRIMARY
                          35              % AT T AINED 3
                                          YRS SECONDARY
                          30
           Per centag e




                          25
                          20

                          15
                          10

                           5
                           0
                           1948    1953    1958     1963    1968    1973     1978    1983    1988     1993
                                                           Year




Further comparison insights can be drawn from cross-sectional data that can be used to simulate
changes in educational attainment over time. By looking at the educational attainment of the
1999/2000 sample by 5-year age cohort, it is possible to extrapolate average attainment from
1953 up to 1993 in 5-year intervals . Figure 3 shows that primary school completion increased
dramatically over the last 40 years of the 20th century. The percentage of the population
completing primary school climbed from less than 10% in 1953 to more than 40% by the mid
1990‟s. Improvement in attainment at the secondary level has been more modest than at the
primary level, but nevertheless, the percentage of the population completing 3 years of secondary
education increased from less than 5% in 1953 to about 15% in 1993.

Figure 4, below, provides a snapshot of the current education system. The proportion of
children enrolled (total enrollment, primary enrollment, and secondary enrollment) is plotted
against age. We can see that most children (more than 90%) are enrolled in primary school
between the ages of 9 to 12 years old. Secondary coverage is substantially lower. The peak
secondary enrollment occurs at age 17 when 22% of children are enrolled in secondary schools.


                          Figure 4: Enrollment by Age (from HH survey, all ages)


                                      Age-Specific Enrollment Ratio

                 100                                                      Total
                 90
                                                                          Primary
                 80
                                                                          Secondary
                 70
             %
             En 60
             roll 50
             ed 40
                 30
                 20
                 10
                  0
                       0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
                                                       Age




3.4 Government Expenditure on Education

Government education expenditure as a whole plummeted from 4.1% of GDP in the 1970s to
only 1.2 % in 1980s. The 1980s and 1990s have seen a slow but steady recovery. By 1996,
total government expenditure had reached 2.6% of GDP. By 1999/2000, the education budget
as a share of GNP was about 4 percent (323 Ush billion including development budget). This
level of investment is high compared to other low- and even middle-income countries (Table
6).

            Table 6: Total Education Expenditure as a % of GNP and as a % of Total Expenditure
     Total Education Expenditure as a
     % of GNP and as a % of Total Expenditure
                                                            % of GNP          % of Gov. Spending
                                                       1970 1980 1990 1995 1970 1980 1990 1995

     Low & Middle Income                                2.4     3   3.1   3.3       10 11.6 13.2  13
     East Asia & Pacific                                1.6   2.4   2.3   2.3      6.3 9.7 12.8 10.7
      Europe & Central Asia                                      4   3.7   4.3     5 17.5 16.2 17.1 18.1
      Latin America & Caribbean                                  3   3.8     3   4.6 14.5 17.8 13.6 18.1
      Middle East & North Africa                                 5   6.1   4.7   4.9 15.9 16.2 21.1   17
      South Asia                                               2.5   2.7   3.5   3.3   10 10.2 11.9   11
      Sub-Saharan Africa                                       3.8     4   3.4   3.4   16 15.5 12.8 15.2

      WORLD                                                      3 11.5    3.4   3.4 12.1 12.2 13.2   13
      High-Income                                              5.4 5.8     4.9     5 19.3 17.3 13.4 11.4

      Uganda                                                   4.1   1.2   1.5   2.6 17.7 11.3 11.5 21.4

A more telling indicator of the Government of Uganda‟s (GoU) commitment to education is the
share of Government expenditure devoted to education. Education‟s share of total government
expenditure decreased from 17.7% to 11.3% during the 1980s; however, education expenditure
rose steadily to occupy about 21.4% of total government expenditure by 1995. Subsequently, it
kept rising and stood at more than 26% between 1997 and 2000. Furthermore, in 2000/2001,
the education budget reached 32 percent of the total government recurrent budget.

Within the education sector, in 2000/01, about 15.8% of the recurrent budget was allocated to
secondary education, and 2% to BTVET, which is low when compared to the 67% allocated to
primary, and 12% allocated to tertiary, education.

             Table 7: Recurrent Budget Allocation in Billions of Uganda Shilling, 1998-2004 (estimated)

Sub-sector                 1998/99         1999/00    2000/01        2001/02      2002/03      2003/04
Primary                     142.7           161.8      194.3          228.5        254.6        281.6
Secondary                   41.5            41.6       45.6           56.6         61.2         65.6
TVET                         9.6             8.4        6.5           10.8         14.1         15.4
Tertiary                    29.5            36.6       33.7           45.6         56.1         65.8
Other                        8.3             9.8        8.2           10.1         10.9         11.9
TOTAL                       231.4           258.2      288.3          351.5        396.8        440.2

Primary share                0.62            0.63       0.67           0.65        0.64         0.64
Secondary share              0.18            0.16       0.16           0.16        0.15         0.15
TVET Share                   0.04            0.03       0.02           0.03        0.04         0.03
Tertiary Share               0.13            0.14       0.12           0.13        0.14         0.15
Other                        0.04            0.04       0.03           0.03        0.03         0.03
Notes: Figures in italics are planned expenditures
Source: Medium Term Budget Framework


Per student subsidy from the Government varies substantially by level of education. The
Government subsidy per primary student averaged about US$22, as compared to US$148 per
secondary student (see Section on Cost and Financing) and US$860 per university student in
public universities. This results in a ratio of 1:7:39.
                       4. UGANDA POST-PRIMARY EDUCATION

4.1 Policy, Objectives, Structure, Admission, and Size

Policy Context for Post-primary Education.. The long-term national policies for education
come out of documents and policy statements external to the Ministry of Education and Sports
(MOES). These include the following:

   1   Vision 2025: A Strategic Framework for National Development, 1999
   2   White Paper on Education, 1992
   3   Education Bill 2001, 4th Draft
   4   The Local Governments Act 1997 and the Local Governments Act Amendments 1997
   5   Education Strategic Investment Plan (ESIP)

The Vision 2025 document was prepared by the Ministry of Finance, Chapter Seven of which
indicates that, in the education sector, the goal is to “ provide free and compulsory universal
primary and secondary education.” This goal was reinforced in the manifesto of the ruling party
during the 2001 presidential election.

The White Paper on Education identifies the intended structure of the curriculum and
institutions. In general, current MOES policies include incremental expansion of Government
funding, movement toward a comprehensive curriculum, and the expansion of BTVET via
community polytechnic provision.

As demonstrated by the 1997 Local Governments Act, the Government‟s policy is to
decentralize the control of education to districts through the DEOs. Implementation of
decentralization is much more advanced at the primary level. Secondary education remains the
prime responsibility of the Commissioners for Secondary Education and the Commission for
Technical, Vocational, Business, and Commercial Education.

However, the above broad policy directions have not been explicitly translated into policies and
guidelines by the Ministry of Education and Sports. The implications of the broad policies have
never been studies. The 1992 White Paper on Education, though proposing a number of reform
ideas, were never implemented due to a lack of implementation strategy and consideration for
the budget envelop. Due to inadequate staffing and centralized management, senior managers in
MOES are mainly preoccupied with the day-to-day management of the secondary school system
and have relatively little time or capacity to deal with policy, planning and quality control.
Within MOES, policy takes the form of administrative circulars regulating critical areas of
secondary education. As mentioned in the rationale for the study section, the lack of a coherent
policy framework and the emergence of various policy pronouncements without careful
consideration of resources and their impact is the primary motivation for the study.

Objectives of Secondary Education. The 1992 Government White Paper on Education states
broadly the aims and objectives of Secondary Education as:

   Installing and promoting national unity and an understanding of social and civic
       responsibilities; strong love and care for others and respect for public property, as well as
       an appreciation of international relations and beneficial international cooperation;
      Promoting an appreciation and understanding of cultural heritage of Uganda, including its
       languages;
      Imparting and promoting a sense of self-discipline, ethical and spiritual values, and both
       personal and collective responsibility and initiative;
      Enabling individuals to acquire and develop knowledge and an understanding of emerging
       needs of society and the economy;
      Providing up-to-date and comprehensive knowledge in theoretical and practical aspects of
       innovative production, modern management methods in the fields of commerce and
       industry, and their application in the context of the socio-economic development of
       Uganda;
      Enabling individuals to develop basic scientific technological, technical, agricultural and
       commercial skills required for self-employment;
      Enabling individuals to develop skills of problem-solving, information gathering and
       interpretation, independent reading and writing, and self-improvement through learning
       and the development of social physical and leadership skills, such as those obtained
       through games, sports, and clubs;
      Laying the foundation for further education;
      Enabling the individual to apply acquired skills in solving problems of the community and
       to develop in him a strong sense of constructive and beneficial belonging to that
       community; and
      Instilling positive attitudes towards productive work and a strong respect for the dignity of
       labor and those who engage in productive labor activities.

Similar to post-primary education in many other developing countries, post-primary education in
Uganda has multiple objectives. At the minimum, it has the “double task” of providing the higher
levels of schools with qualified students, as well as preparing students for the world of work. An
important question to ask is what the education system should do so that all the objectives are
achieved? Should all schools train all students with these two broad aims, or whether a certain
division of labor should take place? If there should be a division of labor, then there is an equity
issue: who should be prepared for higher levels of schooling and who should be trained to go to the
world of work? If all schools should prepare all students with both aims, then what and how should
the education system teach students so that they are prepared whether to go to higher institutions or
go to the world of work? What should a core PPET curriculum be? There is increasingly a
recognition that that there is a need to focus the scarce PPET resources (at least the public sector)
on instilling basic literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills at the lower secondary level.
This focus on the basics will ultimately serve either both purposes or all purposes well.


Structure. Secondary education in Uganda immediately follows a 7-year primary education.
General secondary education consists of two levels: lower secondary education (grades S1, S2,
S3, and S4), and upper secondary (grades S5 and S6). There is, in addition, a parallel technical
and vocational education system that consists of 3 years of technical and farm schools
immediately following the primary cycle.
This structure of 13 years of primary and secondary education is unusual. The recent UNESCO
data indicate that most countries in the world now follow a 6-3-3 structure for primary and
secondary education (Table 8). Further, there is also an international trend that a basic or
compulsory education cycle is defined to ensure minimum years of schooling for all children
when basic literacy, numeracy, and problem solving skills are taught. Most countries now have
defined that compulsory time period to be 8 or 9 years of education, or up to a certain age, and as
covering the entire primary cycle and part of the secondary cycle. Such a definition is still
missing in Uganda.

                        Table 8: Structure of Education System by World Region
                  Primary            Lower Secondary       Upper Secondary     Compulsory
Africa                           6                     3                   3                 7
North America                    6                     3                   3                 9
South America                    6                     3                   3                 8
Asia                             6                     4                   3                 8
Europe                           5                     4                   3                 9
Oceania                          6                     4                   2                 8

Uganda                            7                4                    2           Not defined
                            Source: UNESCO World Education Report 2000.

There is no officially defined age of entry into secondary education. Ideally, if a child enters
primary at age 6 and complete the 7-year primary cycle, he or she would be 13 years old by the
time he or she enters a secondary school. However, the combination of late entry into primary
and repetition at the primary cycle determines that most children enter secondary school at a
much later age than 13.

Admission and Examinations.

At the end of the seven years of primary education, pupils sit for Primary Leaving Examination
(PLE) in which they are examined in four subject areas: English, Mathematics, Social Studies,
and Basic Science and Health Education. Their results are then graded on a Nine Point scale and
the performance arranged in order of merit.

Selection for Post Primary Education and training is based on the performance at PLE.
Although pupils make choices of schools they would prefer to go to for secondary education, it
ends up that the very best performing secondary schools receive the highest applicants. From
these many applicants, the very best gain admission to these schools, in most cases those with
total aggregate four (i.e. a distinction 1 in each of the four subjects, thus aggregate four). The
rest of the schools then share the remaining applicants, but with the hierarchy maintained: the
best schools getting best candidates. Cut off points for elite secondary schools are generally
below six points.

Approximately 40% of all the pupils who sit PLE get an opportunity to go for post primary
education and/or training. Most of the students enrolled in Technical Vocational schools are
those who have not found a place in secondary school. Technical Vocational schools therefore
recruit from a lower performing category from the primary school leavers.
Admission to private schools varies by school. Most of private schools admit students who can
afford to pay the fees.

Size of the Sector. Secondary schools have expanded significantly, though unevenly, during
the last 3 decades. Between 1970 and 2000, the number of secondary schools in Uganda
increased from 73 to 1,892, and enrollment increased from about 50,000 to almost 600,000, a
more than tenfold increase.

The total number of secondary schools and enrollment was relatively flat during the 1970s, rising
in the early 1980s, and then leveling out again until the mid-1990s. Very pronounced growth in
the number of institutions resumed in 1998.

These figures, however, must be treated with some caution, as the MOES school census data,
upon which this analysis is based, are not completely reliable. Moreover, prior to the year 2000
data collection, private schools were probably seriously under reported. It is also not clear
whether the dramatic increase in total enrolment between 1999 and 2000 reflects actual growth,
or is due rather to improvements in MOES data collection and analysis procedures.

                                          Figure 5: Number of Secondary Schools, 1970 - 2000

                                                Number of Secondary Schools

                                    2000
                                    1800
                                    1600
                Number of Schools




                                    1400
                                    1200
                                    1000
                                     800
                                     600
                                     400
                                     200
                                       0
                                       1970     1975      1980      1985      1990      1995   2000
                                                                    Year
                                                  Secondary Enrolment Trends

                                 600,000

                                 500,000
               Total Enrolment
                                 400,000                                                         2000

                                 300,000

                                 200,000
                                                                                                1999
                                 100,000

                                      0
                                      1970      1975    1980    1985    1990   1995    2000
                                                                Year


                                           Figure 6: Secondary Enrollment Trends, 1970 - 2000
               Source: Educational Statistical Abstract 2000, Ministry of Education and Sports, Uganda.
As indicated in Table 9, the post-primary education system is currently composed of 1,892
general secondary schools and 29 technical and farm schools. The total enrollment in general
secondary schools was 518,931 students in 2000 and about 8,000 in technical and farm schools.
There may be an unknown number of private secondary and/or technical schools that have not
responded to the Ministry‟s annual school survey and hence are not included in these statistics.

Of the schools that responded, approximately 26% are government-owned, 31% are
private-owned, and 43% are community-owned. In terms of enrollment, only 41% of total
enrollment is in government schools; the remaining 60% are in private and community schools.
Female enrollment accounts for about 45% on average throughout the system.

                 Table 9: Overview of the General Secondary Education System (2000)
        School Ownership    # of schools total enrollment % female enroll. pupil:teacher ratio
        Government                     490          216,292               41 national average:
        Private                        579          120,885               47
        Community                      811          178,510               46
        Unknown                         12            3,244              n/a
        Total                        1,892          518,931              n/a                   17
                                  Source: Annual School Census 2000




4.2 System Performance

4.2.1 Coverage

The 1999/2000 Household Survey indicates that the gross and net secondary enrollment
(secondary including all grades of S1 to S6) ratios were, respectively, 19% and 13% in 1999.
When broken down by age, the enrollment ratio ranges from 2% of 13 year olds to the peak of
22% of 17 year olds. So, although secondary education should officially start at age 13, only
2% of the 13 year olds enter secondary school. Most children enter between the ages of 14 to
17.

                Table 10: Age-specific Enrollment Ratio for Secondary School in 1999/2000
                                                  Age-specific Enrollment
                                   Age         Ratio for Secondary School
                                    13                                  0.02
                                    14                                  0.08
                                    15                                  0.15
                                    16                                  0.19
                                    17                                  0.22
                                    18                                  0.20
                                    19                                  0.16
                                    20                                  0.11
                                    21                                  0.08
                                    22                                  0.07
                                    23                                  0.03
                                    24                                  0.02
                                    25                                  0.01
                                  NER                                   0.13
                                  GER                                   0.19

A visual way to illustrate the coverage is by plotting the age-specific enrollment ratios against
age. Figure 7 plots the age-specific enrollment ratio for both primary (pink curve) and
secondary education (yellow curve). In an ideal situation, when all children start secondary
school at age 13 and graduate at age 18 and the coverage is 100%, we would expect to see a flat
horizontal line at the value of 100%, starting from age 13 and ending at age 18. Instead, due to
less than 100% coverage, as well as underage and overage enrollment, we see a curve (yellow)
starting around age 13 and ending after age 25, but never reaching 100%.




                                Figure 7: Age-Specific Enrollment Ratio
                                       Age-Specific Enrollment Ratio

                 100                                                      Total
                  90
                                                                          Primary
                  80
                                                                          Secondary
                  70
              %
              En 60
              roll 50
              ed 40
                  30
                  20
                  10
                   0
                        0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
                                                       Age



It is clear that overage enrollment is a problem also for secondary education. Thirty-three
percent of those who enroll in secondary school are beyond the official target age range of 13-18.
This implies at least as great a shortfall in the secondary net enrollment ratio. This is one reason
why secondary coverage of the official secondary-age target population (13-18) is so low, at only
13% . Such selectivity of the PPET system determines that the system is very elitist in nature.

The PPET sub-sector is more concerned with the lower grades of S1 to S4, looking only at the
grades of S1-S4, the gross enrollment ratio is higher and estimated to be at 35%. However,
even this figure of 35% is low compared to international standards. Table 11 indicates that
worldwide, secondary GER stood at 64% and the average GER for developing countries was
51.2% back in 1996.

Though policy-making should not be based on such crude comparative statistics, for the purpose
of illustration, given the current economic conditions, Uganda should at least aim for the overall
secondary GER to reach a minimum of 22% of the secondary age group, which is the average
ratio for countries with similar economic development as Uganda. And the S1-S4 GER ratio
should perhaps aim to increase to 50%.

                              Table 11 : Secondary Gross Enrollment Ratio
                  Secondary Gross Enrollment Ratio
                                      (1996)
                                                        MF          M        F
                  WORLD TOTAL                                  64.4     65.2         64

                  High Income                                 105.2    105.5         110
                  Middle Income                                67.3       67        68.2
                  Low Income                                   39.4     42.2          34

                  OECD                                          108    106.6      109.4
                Sub-Saharan Africa                           30.4     33.2      27.7
                Arab States                                  58.5     60.4      56.4
                Latin America and Caribbean                  59.7     51.8      56.6
                Eastern Asia and Pacific                     61.5     61.9        63
                       of which: China                       68.9     72.5      65.1
                Southern Asia                                  57     62.2      51.3
                       of which: India                       49.4     58.8      39.3

                Developing                                   51.2     49.7      47.2
                Least Developed                              24.7       29      20.4
                Average for countries with GDP Per
                capita $320                                    22

                Uganda                                       12       15           9
                    Sources: UNESCO Education Indicators Database; World Bank
                                  Development Indicators 2000


4.2.2 Coverage for the Poor and Other Disadvantaged

By gender. In 2000, only 44% of general secondary enrollments were female. However, the
overall gender balance has improved somewhat in recent years – from 40% in 1996 to 44% in
2000. Figure 8 plots the age-specific enrollment ratio by gender and shows that the pattern of
gender disparity seems to vary by age. Girls have higher secondary enrollment ratios than boys
from ages 13 to 16. By age 17, boys and girls have similar secondary enrollment ratios of about
22%. After age 17, however, boys start to have higher enrollment ratios than girls, and the
disparity can be substantial. For example, at age 20, more than 20% of boys are in secondary
school, as compared to less than 5% for girls.




              Figure 8: Comparison of Secondary Enrollment for Males and Females by Age
Looking at the overall gross and net secondary enrollment ratios, boys have a slightly higher
gross enrollment ratio than do girls. However, the net enrollment ratios are almost identical,
with females having a slight advantage over males.


                        Table 12: Secondary Gross and Net Enrollment Ratios by Gender
                                                             Male                        Female
 Gross Enrollment Ratio                                       20%                          16%
 Net Enrollment Ratio                                       12.7%                         12.4%

This finding indicates that the female disadvantage in secondary enrollment has been reduced
significantly and occurs mainly after age 17, when girls start to have higher dropout rates than
boys (see later Section 4.2.4 Internal Efficiency on dropouts). In fact, examining the proportion
of girls enrolled by grade, we find that by Form 6, girls represent less than 40% of total
enrollment.

There are also significant differences by region, specifically, schools in the Central region have
significant higher female participation and schools in the Northern region consistently have the
lowest female participation, generally less than one third of total enrollment in Form 5 and Form
6.

The implication is that efforts have to be made to bring more girls into the secondary schools
early on so that they will be able to complete secondary school prior to reaching age 17, since the
likelihood of them dropping out after age 17 is very high.        And that social norms may be a
significant factor in determining gender parity especially in the Northern Region.

By expenditure quintile. Households are grouped into 5 quintiles by the level of total household
expenditure. Quintile 1 (Q1) is the poorest group and has the lowest level of expenditure,
whereas quintile 5 (Q5) is the wealthiest group and has the highest level of expenditure. Figure
9 shows total enrollments for the top two quintiles (Q4 and Q5) and the bottom quintile (Q1).

                     Figure 9: Comparison, by Quintile, of Secondary Enrollment by Age
                                        Age Specific Enrollment Ratio For Secondary

                     45
                     40                            Q1
                     35                            Q4
                     30
                 % Enrolled

                                                   Q5
                     25
                     20
                     15
                     10
                              5
                              0
                                  0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

                                                                 Age



Extreme income-based inequality shows up at this level. Q5 households have the highest
enrollment ratio at all ages. In contrast, the Q1 households have the lowest enrollment ratios up
to age 24. For example, at age 17, fewer than 4% of the Q1 children are enrolled in secondary
schools, whereas 42% of the Q5 children are enrolled. The richest 20% of the households
occupy 63% of total secondary spaces. The inequality in secondary schools is therefore more
widespread than in primary schools, in the sense that more children are disadvantaged in relation
to the richest 20% of the households.

There is also evidence that not only there is gross inequity in secondary enrollment, but also that
the inequity may have worsened over the last decade. Using the Household Surveys of 1992,
1997, and 2000, Deininger (2001) examined the net secondary enrollment rates by quintile for
1992, 1997, and 2000. His findings confirmed poverty induced inequality in secondary
enrollment and, more importantly, that the inequity had actually worsened since 1992 for
secondary schools. In 1992, the ratio of enrollment of the richest to the poorest students was
slightly more than 2 (10 over 4.9), whereas in 2000 this ratio increased to more than 4 (12.9 over
3.6). Therefore, the Ugandan government should not to neglect the equity goals while focusing
on expanding the system. In fact there should be specific policies aiming at helping the poor
segments of the population to access secondary education. Special consideration should also
be given to orphans (including AIDS-orphans) who are most likely to be poor .



                 Table 13: Secondary Enrollment Rates by Quintile, 1992, 1997, and 2000
                          1992                             1997                            2000
          All          Girls     Boys      All          Girls     Boys     All          Girls     Boys
Poorest         4.9        3.2      6.3          3.8          3      4.3         3.8        3.6      3.9
Q2              8.3        8.5       8           7.1          6      8.2         7.7        7.5      7.9
Q3              9.8          7     12.6           11       12.5      9.5         12.4      11.7     13.1
Q4              11.2        11     11.5          21.5      19.7     23.1         17.2      18.4      16
Richest         17.4      16.1     19.4          34.1      32.3      37          28.3      27.9     28.8
Uganda           10          9      11           11.1      11.2      11          12.4      12.9      12



4.2.3 The Determinants of Secondary Enrollment

Further analysis using multiple regression method (see details in Annex 1) confirms that poverty
is most significantly and positively associated with secondary enrollment (negatively). Children
from better off households are more likely to be enrolled or to have benefited from secondary
education compared to their poor counterparts.

In addition, being a head or spouse of the household significantly lowers the probability of
secondary attendance. The age of the youngest child in the family also lowers the probability of
enrollment for the target child, especially the girl. Finally, father‟s education is another
significant and positive factor. The more years of education the father has received, the more
likely the target child is to enroll or to have enrolled in secondary school.

Earlier, we also discussed that girls have a lower age-specific secondary enrollment after age 17.
The regression results show that, only controlling for household economic factors but without
controlling for family structural characteristics, girls are still less likely to enroll than boys.
However, once we take into account whether the target child is the head or spouse of the
household and the age of the youngest child in the household, girls do not differ from boys in
enrollment probability. This means that girls are less likely to enroll in secondary schools after
age 17 because they start to get married and become the spouse or head of a new household or
are taking care of the youngest child in the household, whether or not the child is hers.
Therefore, starting girls‟ schooling earlier is likely to lead to higher attainment for girls, in
addition to helping more girls into secondary school.




                  Figure 10: Reasons for not attending school for children of secondary age group
                             Figure 11: Reasons for dropping out of school



                                      Reasons for Dropping Out

                     0.8
                     0.7
                     0.6
                     0.5
                     0.4
                     0.3
                     0.2
                     0.1
                       0
                                                                        s
                                                              y
                                  k

                                         st


                                                     t




                                                                                          rs
                                                                                    cy
                                  k




                                                   r




                                                                     es
                                or




                                                          lit
                     om wor




                                                po
                                       Co




                                                                                         he
                                                                                 an
                                                                      n
                              w




                                                         ua
                                                 s




                                                                                         ot
                                                                   ck

                                                                            gn
                                              an

                                                       lq
                          tic
                           to




                                                                Si

                                                                             e
                                          Tr

                                                     oo
                       es




                                                                          Pr
                    d
                  ee




                                                   h
                 N




                                                Sc
                        D




The 1999/2000 survey also asked reasons for not attending school or for dropping out. Though
not precise, it gives us an opportunity to cross check our findings from the statistical analysis.
Apart from being “indifferent”, the most important reason for not attending is cost. The most
important reason for dropping out is also cost (more than 70%). These findings are consistent
with our findings from the regressions that poverty is the most significant factor for not enrolling
in secondary schools.

A small proportion also cited “need for work‟ as a reason for not attending or dropping out of
school. However, this does not mean that only a small proportion of children are working. As
a consequence of poverty, many poor children need to work. A small section on labor income
in the 1999 survey enables us to examine the proportion of children who are working by
expenditure quintile. Figure 12 shows that between 2% and 22% of children and young adults
ages 11 to 25 are already participating in the labor force. This is likely to be an underestimate
of the proportion of children productively engaged out of school, since many children also
contribute to domestic work or are working in the informal sector. The figure also shows that,
at all ages, children from the lowest expenditure group are much more likely to be working than
those from the high expenditure group at all ages, contributing to an explanation of why
enrollment rates in secondary education are so low especially for the poor.

               Figure 12: Comparison, among Quintiles, of Percentage of Children Working


                                  % of Children Working by Consumption Quintile
                             25

                             20
                                                                                    Q1
                % Wor king




                             15                                                     Q2
                                                                                    Q3
                             10
                                                                                    Q4
                             5                                                      Q5

                             0
                                     Ages 11-15   Ages 16-20    Ages 21-25

If roughly 20% of the age group 16-20 are enrolled in school and about 20% are engaged
working in the formal sector, this means that more than 60% of the age group are idle or engaged
in domestic and other informal activities. Though in the long term, we hope this proportion
will decrease as the PPET system is further expanded. In the short term, the Government of
Uganda still needs to worry the very large numbers of young people who appear not to have the
skills to get to work. Alternative delivery mechanisms such as distance education may be
considered to provide a minimum set of skills to these people. This needs to be an explicit part
of the Government‟s strategy

4.2.4 Internal Efficiency: Transition, Repetition, and Dropout rates

Transition Rates

Primary to secondary transition. We have now established that Uganda has very low coverage
at the secondary level. We also know that the low secondary coverage is owing to a low
transition rate from primary to secondary, or a high dropout rate at secondary grades, or a
combination of both factors.

We use the Ministry‟s MIS data to estimate the transition rates in public schools. Though the
response rate varies from year to year, student flow information can still be estimated within a
single year, since the same number of schools report enrollment for all grades. According to the
Ministry‟s official statistics, transition from P7 to S1 has ranged from 22% to almost 50% in
public schools since 1993 (Table 14). In the last three years, the transition fluctuated between
30-50%. The fluctuation may have more to do with the capturing of private schools in the
school census, rather than the rapid expansion in the sector. This means that less than one half
of the P7 graduates enrolled in secondary schools. Therefore, any attempts to expand the
secondary education system need to take into account the fact that at least half of the P7
graduates have dropped out of the education system entirely.

                          Table 14: Transition Rates from P7 to S1 (in percent)
   Year                 1993   1994     1995        1996      1997       1998          2000        2001
   Transition rate         22      31         42         40        36           31            40          50

The level of transition from primary to secondary school is slightly lower compared to the
African average of 60% (Table 15). More importantly, given the increased number of P7
graduates due to UPE, the transition rate is likely to fall in the next few years. The extent of
decrease will depend on the rate of secondary enrollment growth which is further determined by
the size of government budget allocated to secondary education. See Section 5 on enrollment
and transition rates projections.

                       Table 15: Primary to Secondary Transition Rates (in percent)
                     Transition Rates from Primary to     Secondary Education

                     (1994)



                     WORLD                                                       79.8

                     South America                          ..
                            of which: Chile                                      53.5
                                         Costa Rica                              68.3
                                         Guyana                                  96.8
                     North America                          ..
                     Europe                                                      89.5
                     Oceania                                ..
                            of which: New Zealand                               101.7
                     Arab States                            ..
                            of which: Kuwait                                    106.4
                                         Palestine                               81.7
                                         Qatar                                   96.9
                     Asia                                   ..
                            of which: China                                      87.6
                                         Hong Kong                               99.2
                                         Mongolia                                95.1
                     Africa                                                      60.6

                     Uganda (2001)                                                    50
                           Sources: UNESCO online database; Uganda MOES
Transition from S4 to S5. Transition from S4 to S5 is low. Upon completing S4, students sit
for the Uganda Advanced Certificate of Education exams. The majority of students exit the
education system at this point. In 2000, only about 26% of the S4 graduates proceeded to
enroll in S5. The system is designed to be very selective at this stage.

                                                 Table 16: Transition Rates from S4 to S5 for Selected Years
                                              Year                  1995       1997     1998         2000
                                              Transition rate       28         35       44           26



Dropouts and Repeaters

Dropouts. Table 17 indicates that the overall average dropout rates for secondary education in
Uganda for the year 2000 were approximately 8.2% and 9.2% for males and females,
respectively. The S2 and S3 grade years seem to have had the highest dropout rates. For males,
these rates were 10.1% and 9.6%, while for females these rates were about 11% for both S2 and
S3. Though we are not sure why dropout rates are higher at S2 and S3, it is possible that
students may feel or have been told that they have no hope of doing well (passing the UCE) and
then drop out. Total dropout rates for grade S6 were the lowest, indicating that if a student
decided to stay in school long enough to begin the sixth year, he or she would most likely finish.
Dropout rates for all six grades were slightly higher for females than for males. The overall
dropout rate in Uganda is relatively low compared to most other low-income countries.

                                                            Figure 13: Dropouts by Grade and Gender
                                                                       Dropouts by Grade and Gender



                                         12




                                         10




                                         8
               Dropout rates (percent)




                                                                                                                   % MALE DROPOUTS
                                         6
                                                                                                                   % FEMALE DROPOUTS



                                         4




                                         2




                                         0
                                               S1      S2         S3       S4           S5            S6   TOTAL
                                                                          Grade




                                                               Source: Annual School Census 2000


Dropout rates also vary by type and location of school. Generally speaking, the dropout rates
are higher in non-government-aided schools as compared to government-aided schools (12.8%
versus 10.2% overall). Schools located in rural areas also tend to have higher dropout rates than
those located in peri-urban or urban areas. Female students in rural non-government-aided
schools have the highest dropout rate of 16.9%, and male students in government-aided schools
have the lowest average dropout rate of 3.9%.
                      Table 17: Dropout rates by type of school and location, 2001

                                          Government-aided        Not government
                                                                       aided
                   Rural      Female               12.8                  16.9
                              Male                 10.1                  14.9
                              All                  11.5                  15.5
                   Peri-urban Female                9.8                  11.5
                              Male                  9.4                  10.9
                              All                   9.9                  11.0
                   Urban      Female                5.4                   9.4
                              Male                  3.9                   8.8
                              All                   4.7                   9.0
                   ALL        Female               11.1                  13.8
                              Male                  9.0                  12.4
                              All                  10.2                  12.8




Repetition. Repetition rates of secondary school grades were much less pronounced than those
for dropouts. The overall repetition rates were very similar for males and females and at about
2%.     Secondary school repetition rates are generally much higher in other low-income
countries.   The low repetition rates may be due to the fact that Uganda actually has an
automatic promotion policy for secondary schools. However, this policy is not strictly
implemented at all as one can infer from the non-zero repetition rate.




                              Figure 14: Repeaters by Grade and Gender
                                                                  Repetition Rates by Grade and Gender


                                            3




                                           2.5

              Repetition Rates (percent)


                                            2



                                                                                                                 % MALE REPEATERS
                                           1.5
                                                                                                                 % FEMALE REPEATERS



                                            1




                                           0.5




                                            0
                                                 S1   S2     S3           S4           S5           S6   TOTAL
                                                                         Grade




                                                           Source: Annual School Census 2000


4.2.5 Examinations, Assessment, and Student Learning Achievement

Secondary school students sit for the Uganda Certificate of Education at the end of “O” level
(UCE) and the Uganda Advanced Certificate of Education at the end of “A” level education
(UACE). These are all national-level curriculum-based examinations designed for certification
and selection purposes. There have not been any national assessment of student achievement at
this level of education other than the two tests. The fact that only about 40% of the primary
graduates are able to find a place in PPET determines that incentives are very strong for teachers
to teach and students to learn to the requirements of UCE and UACE, rather than the
requirements of the curriculum.

As part of the study on PPET and to better understand how much students in secondary schools
are learning, criteria-based English and Mathematics tests were designed for Form 1 and Form 3
students. These tests were developed to test the basic competencies in Math and English. They
aim to measure how much Ugandan students have achieved against a set of minimum
competencies appropriate for Form 1 and Form 3 students. This section presents the results
from UCE, UACE, and new competency tests in Math and English.

Uganda Certificate of Education (UCE). In most subjects, the numbers of candidates sitting
the examination increased by over 23% between 1998 and 2000, but candidates for Physics and
Chemistry only increased by 18% and 17%, respectively, from what were already low numbers.

Overall performance on the UCE was particularly low for Mathematics and Science subjects. In
2000, of almost 90,000 students who sat for the UCE, the pass rate was only 47.5% for
Mathematics. The pass rate was comparatively also low for Physics (71%), Chemistry (54%)
and Biology (64%). There were similarly very low percentages of candidates achieving grades
1 and 2 (distinction) passes in mathematics and the science subjects in comparison with
Humanities and Social Science Subjects. Thus, 17% of students gained distinction in History,
13% in Political Education, 6.8% in Christian Religious Education and 5% in English, but only
2.8% in Physics, 2.2% in Chemistry, 1.6% in Math and 1.3% in Biology.

              Table 18a: UCE Candidates and Pass Rates by Subject (2000) for main subjects
               SUBJECT                     NO OF            % PASS             %
                                         CANDIDAT            RATE        DISTINCTIO
                                             ES           (GRADES              N
                                                              1-8)         (GRADES
                                                                              1&2)
               English Language                87,564            89.0%             5.0%
               Math                            87,509            47.5%             1.6%
               Geography                       87,488            87.0%             2.6%
               Biology                         83,090            64.0%             1.3%
               Commerce                        79,584            60.0%             1.7%
               History                         78,617            91.4%            17.0%
               Christian RE                    65,765            86.0%             6.8%
               Agriculture                     40,518            74.0%             1.8%
               Chemistry                       29,873            54.0%             2.2%
               Physics                         28,487            71.0%             2.8%
               Art                             18,758            99.0%             0.5%
               Political Education             17,176            72.0%            13.2%
               Health Science                  13,210            75.0%             1.0%
               Luganda                         12.030            76.0%             3.7%
               Principles of Accounting        11,010            65.0%             2.5%
                    Source: UCE Examinations Results Statistics Summary 1998-2000,
                                         provided by UNEB


  Year   Candidates % fail Math % fail English
    1996     61,706           58               23
    1997     67,569           62               42
    1998     75,318           58               29
    1999     84,803           59               14
    2000     91,666           52               11
    2001    105,768           51               28
                 Table 18b: UCE Candidates and Fail Rates for Math and English


The poor performance in Math UCE is not a new phenomenon. Since 1996, more than half of
those who took Math tests has been failing.

Uganda Advanced Certificate of Education (UACE). There are increasing numbers of
candidates for all subjects, but numbers in mathematics and science subjects remain very low.
Comparative pass rates for mathematics, economics and chemistry are also low, although
mathematics has a higher percentage (6.5%) of candidates passing at grades 1 and 2 than in most
subjects.
                      Table 19: UACE Candidates and Pass Rates by Subject (2000)
                SUBJECT                    NO OF          % PASS              %
                                         CANDIDAT          RATE          DISTINCTIO
                                            ES           (GRADES              N
                                                            1-8)          (GRADES
                                                                             1&2)
                General paper                  39,041            87.0%           7.0%
                Economics                      32,385            71.0%           1.4%
                History                        25,619            86.0%           2.8%
                Geography                      21,469            84.0%           0.2%
                Christian RE                   20,772            94.0%           2.0%
                Art                             9,474            99.0%           0.2%
                Physics                         6,349            82.0%           0.6%
                Mathematics                     5,140            66.0%           6.5%
                Chemistry                       4,949            76.0%           1.0%
                Biology                         4,338            84.0%           1.0%
                    Source: UACE Examinations Results Statistics Summary 1998-2000,
                                         provided by UNEB

The results of the 2000 UCE and UACE results indicate the following:

   1 Science subjects and mathematics are not popular and will not be selected by many
     students if they are optional subjects.
   2 Physics and Chemistry candidates at UCE level are approximately only a third of the
     number of candidates taking Humanities and Social Sciences subjects. At the UACE
     level, candidates sitting for Math and the 3 Science subjects are only 20% or fewer of the
     candidates taking Humanities and Social Sciences. Performance in mathematics exams is
     particularly poor.
   3 Performance in most of the science subjects tends to be significantly worse than for
     Humanities and Social Science subjects. Low candidate numbers and poor results are
     widely considered to be a function of poor or non-existent laboratory facilities, scarcity of
     essential consumables and a lack of textbooks and qualified teachers in most Ugandan
     secondary schools
   4 Those subjects related to business (Commerce and Principles of Accounting in UCE and
     Economics in UACE) all have very low pass rates in comparison to other subjects
   5 The study of literature in either English or in a local language has seriously declined. It is
     reported that this is a consequence of a scarcity of set literature books in the classroom

A Study of School Quality of Secondary Schools or Equivalent Grades in
Technical/Vocational Schools. The UCE and UACE, although they reflect the extent to
which students master the curriculum materials, are heavily driven by selection purposes.  To
understand more realistically how students are mastering the basic core competencies (assuming
there is a set of minimum competencies to be acquired for PPET students, regardless of the
particular track in which he or she is enrolled), the Ministry commissioned a Secondary School
Quality study through the Uganda National Examination Board. Mathematics and English tests
were designed with support from an international test expert) and administered to selected
samples of Form 1 and Form 3 students in 120 randomly selected schools nationwide.

Results from the School Quality Study indicate that the quality of PPET is rather poor, as
reflected by test scores, especially for Mathematics. Nationwide, more than 40% of Form 1
students and half of Form 3 students failed the math tests. Results of the English tests are
slightly better: 25% of both Form 1 and Form 3 students failed the English tests. The results
on math are largely consistent with the UCE results, both of which indicate that half of the
students fail math. The results on English from the Quality Study (25% failure rate) are worse
that than of the UCE English results which indicate that only 11% of students failed (89%
passed).

                                Table 20: Quality Study Failure Rates I
                      Form 1 Math        Form 3 Math           Form 1 English     Form 3 English
   Male                          37.5%                  47%                 27%               23.3%
   Female                         46%                   54%                 23%               22.1%
   Overall                       40.5%                  50%                 25%               22.7%

The high rates of failure in Form 1 Mathematics and English tests point more to the poor quality
of primary education rather than that of secondary education. The truth is that students are
graduating from primary school without mastering basic skills. This finding highlights the need
to look at the education system as a whole and at what secondary education can achieve, based
on the number and quality of primary graduates.

On the other hand, the equally low or even worse achievement in Form 3 indicate that secondary
education is equally guilty of not providing quality education to its students.
Though designed for different purposes, the results from UCE, UACE, and competency tests
seem to converge and generally point to the fact that secondary students in Uganda are not
learning as much as they should especially in mathematics. Many students are graduating from
the system without mastering basic skills and competencies they need, regardless of whether they
are going to higher levels of education or joining the world of work. The problem may become
more acute as the country expands it PPET system with limited resources.

The poor performance in math and sciences especially should be a serious concern for
policy-making in PPET. It is now well-established that science and technology advances are
believed to be key to economic development. For example, it is well documented that
Germany, Japan, and Korea consciously programmed their economic development to include
science and engineering education, as centerpieces of three very successful economic
development strategies.

4.2.6 Learning Achievement of the Poor and Other Disadvantaged

Another sobering finding from the School Quality Study is that there is great disparity in student
achievement.

Table 21 indicates that nationwide, secondary girls do significantly worse in Mathematics than
boys. 46% of the girls failed Form 1 math test compared to 36% for boys. More than 54% of
the girls failed Form 3 math test compared to only 47% for boys. However, there does not seem
to have a significant gender difference in English achievement.

Though we are not able to make a perfect correlation between test score and student‟s
socio-economic background, there is indication that children from poor family background have
higher failure rates in math and English tests than those from relatively better off families. This
conclusion is drawn from two observations: (a) there is a higher concentration of poor and
disadvantaged students in rural, private/community, and day and/or mixed, and smaller
secondary schools as compared to urban, private/religious, government, boarding, and larger
secondary schools; and (b) the School Quality Study found that students from urban,
government, private/religious, boarding, and larger schools have significantly higher
achievement (lower failure rates) than those rural, private/community, day and/or mixed, and
smaller secondary schools. In fact, private community schools fare the worst. 59% of students
in private community schools failed Math 1; 77% failed Math 3, 38% failed English 1; and 32%
failed English 3.

                                   Table 21: Quality Study Failure Rates II
                             Form 1 Math     Form 3 Math           Form 1 English     Form 3 English
   Rural                              40%                  50%                  33%                31%
   Urban                              40%                  49%                  15%                13%

   O-level                            40%                 47%                 23%                 17%
   A-level                            24%                 44%                  7%                  5%

   Government                         35%                 43%                 27%                 29%
   Private – religious                36%                 45%                 18%                 17%
   Private – community                59%                 77%                 38%                 32%

   Day                                51%                 66%                 32%                 29%
   Mixed                              49%                 60%                 32%                 36%
   Boarding                           27%                 33%                 16%                 11%

   Small school (less than
   200 students                       57%                 68%                 47%                 35%
   Medium school (201 –
   600 students)                      54%                 68%                 37%                 40%
   Large school (more
   than 600 students)                 24%                 32%                  7%                  8%

Another interesting finding is that students from large schools of enrollment more than 600
students do significantly better than smaller schools. In fact, there may be a positive
relationship between school size and student achievement. This may be due to the fact that
larger schools tend to charge higher fees and they are better able to achieve the economy of scale
and thus can afford better teachers and other essential teaching and learning resources. Thus,
argument may be made for larger schools.

This finding is rather tragic. It means that compared to their wealthier counterparts, children
from the poor households, in addition to having a smaller chance of enrolling in secondary
schools, they are more likely to go to a lower quality school if they enroll at all. If we consider
education to be a powerful instrument for social and economic upward mobility, the lack of
opportunity to go to quality school for the poor has determined that the poor may always remain
behind in every measure.

4.2.7 Labor Market Outcomes
Education increases the productivity of an individual. The performance of the education system
is, therefore, reflected in the labor market outcomes of its graduates. There are at least three
important elements to the labor market outcomes: the probability of being employed in the
formal sector, the salary scale once employed, and the “productivity” if engaged in the informal
sector.

The 1999/2000 UNHS data include information on the Ugandan labor force. The broad
composition of the Ugandan labor force is indicated in Table 22, which shows that Uganda has a
small proportion of the population in the labor force (46%). Only 12% of the labor force is
engaged in the formal sector, and the remaining 86% are in the informal sector. One quarter of
the formal sector labor force is employed by the public sector, and two-thirds are employed by
the private sector. The unemployment rate is 7.3%.

                                    Table 22: The Ugandan Labor Force
                % of population in the labor force                                46.1%
                % of the labor force in the formal sector                           12%
                % of the formal labor force in the public sector                  24.4%
                % of the formal labor force in the private sector                 66.7%
                % of the formal labor force unemployed                             7.3%

Education and Employment in the Formal Sector. The analysis shows that higher levels of
education attainment are associated with a higher probability of being employed in the formal
sector. For example, Table 23 shows that and S4 graduate is about twice as likely to be in paid
employment as a P7 graduate. An individual with higher education (diploma or degree) is five
times as likely as a P7 graduate to be in paid employment. The probability of being in paid
employment, by education level, is shown in Table 23.




               Table 23: Probability of Being in Paid Employment by Educational Attainment
   Education          Sample         Employed        Probability
       none           18,285            547              3.0%
     drop P1            303              32             10.6%
        P1              571              77             13.5%
        P2             1,223            176             14.4%
        P3             1,680            213             12.7%
        P4             1,863            237             12.7%
        P5             1,922            287             14.9%
        P6             2,340            319             13.6%
        P7             2,639            407             15.4%
         J1             108              21             19.4%
         J2             133              25             18.8%
         J3              86              16             18.6%
        S1              532             106             19.9%
        S2              565             106             18.8%
        S3              437              88             20.1%
        S4              841             254             30.2%
        S5               84              16             19.0%
        S6              173              59             34.1%
   spec - certif        777             452             58.2%
     diploma            536             399             74.4%
    degree +            130              93             71.5%
    unknown             116              24             20.7%
       Total          35,344           3,954            11.2%


                                    (individuals age 15-69, not in school)
                   Source: Analysis of 1999/2000 UNHS Data Source: Analysis of 1999/2000


Wage Premiums Associated with Post-primary Education. Higher levels of education are
usually associated with higher levels of pay in the formal sector, once employed. To calculate
the wage premiums associated with higher levels of education, we used the 1999 Household
Survey data and restricted the sample to only about 16.7% of the Ugandan‟s labor force who are
between the ages 15-65, are not in school, and who are working in the formal wage sector.
Looking only at the yearly pecuniary earnings, we estimated a standard Mincer (1976) equation
of the form below:

Ln(wage) =  + B1*(years of education)+B2(experience)+B3(experience squared)

The results indicate that wage premium for an additional year of education is high in Uganda.
Table 24, below, lists the coefficients and standard errors associated with the predictors. On
average, for every additional year of education, the wage increases by more than 17% (B1). It
has been argued that wage premium may differ by level of education. In a separate model (not
reported) that looked at yearly returns to various levels of education, we found that yearly returns
are highest at the lower secondary level: 24% compared to 16% for primary and 15% for upper
secondary. (Figure 15) This implies that, for every additional year of lower secondary
education, earnings increase by 24%. Therefore, the case for investing in secondary education,
and particularly lower secondary education, is very strong.

Apart from the returns associated with education, wages in the Central and Western regions are
significantly higher than in the Northern and Eastern regions. For a given level of education and
experience, people in the Central region (including Kampala) have higher wages than those
residing in other regions. There is also a penalty associated with being female. Women earn
about 18% less than their male counterparts with the same level of education and experience and
working in the same location.
                                        Table 24: Wage premiums
            Variables                                        B (S.E)
            Experience                                                        0.12***(0.00)
            Experience squared                                           -0.0002***(0.000)
            Years of education                                               0.17***(0.004)
            Western region (compared to Northern)                             0.25***(0.06)
            Central region (compared to Northern)                             0.44***(0.05)
            Eastern region (compared to Northern)                                 0.09(0.05)
            Female                                                           -0.18***(0.04)


                                 Figure 15: Yearly Return to Education

                                     Yearly return to education


                  0.3
                 0.25
                  0.2
                 0.15
                  0.1
                 0.05
                    0
                           Primary         Lower           Upper         Tertiary
                                         secondary       secondary


These private rates of return to education are relatively high compared to other countries, which
usually have returns to each additional year of education of around 10-12%. This may, in part.
reflect the fact that educated people are still scarce in Uganda.

“Productivity” in the Informal Sector. More than 80% of the Ugandan labor force, however,
are engaged in informal sector activities. The analysis of opportunity cost in Section 4.4.2 and
in Annex 2 show that there is a strong and consistent pattern of productivity increasing with
education. This suggests that formal education significantly increases productivity, not only in
the formal sector, but also in household production.

In short, these results show that returns to secondary education materialize both in the form of
access to formal employment and in the form of remuneration. Wage premiums, and especially
those corresponding to completion of lower secondary education, are fairly high. Returns to
technical education also seem to be high, though we know that costs are substantially higher for
technical education.

It suffices to say that the case for expanding secondary education, and especially lower
secondary education, can be made not only on the ground of coverage and equity, but also from
the point of view of societal investment, as returns are very high regardless of who should
finance such an expansion.

Demand for Post-primary Graduates. A separate study of 400 firms in the formal sector
confirms that there is a high level of demand for post-primary graduates from the formal private
industry sector. Employers generally have a high level of trust in the traditional qualifications
of „O‟- and „A‟- level certificates (see Box 1, below). This demand has been able to more than
compensate for the decline in the demand from the public sector in the context of public civil
service reform. The concern that the „O‟- level certificate may be obsolete is not justified, since
the requirement for entry into the formal sector will increase as more and more of the population
obtains „O‟- level education.

Justification for the expansion of secondary education is also based upon some evidence of skills
shortages. On one hand, employers support increased work and industry relevance within the
curriculum, which they frequently express as vocationalism. On the other hand, based on the
evidence from the surveys (see Box 1, below) (and international experience), this should not
include specific job or occupational training. Instead, they include general oral and written
communication, knowledge of work process, and the capacity to respond to new work situations.
Further, employers highly value behavioral traits, including trust worthiness, reliability, and
punctuality.

                                                  Box 1
     Skills and Attributes Valued by Employers: Findings from Firm Demand Survey Uganda

The vast majority of firms rate the skills of oral and written communication, numeracy, initiative and
problem solving as „very important‟ or „important‟. The highest ranking was given to oral
communication, followed by problem solving ability and initiative.

Over 80% of firms rate as „very important‟ the behavioral characteristics of punctuality, honestly,
enthusiasm, friendliness, politeness and reliability. The highest frequencies are for punctuality, honesty
and reliability.

On the other hand, there is little evidence of a high demand for occupationally specific skills, except for
the high importance attached to general and specific industry experience. Firms are seeking employees
who can be trusted, have good work habits and understanding of the responsibilities of work, have good
communication skills, and who can learn quickly on the job.

Over 80% of forms rated as „very good‟ or „good‟ the following skills of general secondary school
graduates: verbal ability, the ability to follow verbal instructions and written instructions, oral
communication, numeracy skills and communication skills. These results are consistent with the high
degree of trust in post primary qualifications that firms have demonstrated elsewhere in the firm demand
survey.

Upon the basis of these responses the cognitive development in Ugandan secondary education that is
highly regarded by employers can be supplemented with the development of more general skills of
problem solving, production or project work. The habits of punctuality and reliability, completion of
work on time and to a high standard can be built into students‟ school work routines. Means of
demonstrating these skills and attributes to employers through school reports can also be developed.


In short, despite the advocacy for vocationalization sometimes, it is the generic skills and
knowledge plus positive work attitudes that are most valued by the employers. In fact, this is
reflected in the choice that P7 students make with regards to whether to apply to a general
secondary, or to a technical, school. In 2001, of about 400,000 P7 graduates, only slightly more
than 3,000 applied to enroll at the technical and farm schools. There is evidence that the
existing technical and farm schools are seriously under enrolled/utilized.

Therefore, an expansion of secondary education, as compared to technical training, is more
justified by the nature of firm demands for skills. The increasingly diversified and dynamic
formal industry sector also makes it difficult for schools to guess which particular practical skill
is in demand, and therefore schools are much better positioned to focus on transmitting basic
foundational knowledge and skills so that students are flexible to adapt to various work
environments.

The Evolving Structure of the Uganda Economy. Another dimension that the designers of
PPET education policy should keep in mind is the evolving structure of the economy. Uganda
has recently been applauded as a high economic performer in the region. Gross domestic
product maintained an average growth rate of 7.2% from 1990 to 1999, compared to the world
averages of 3.5% for middle-income countries and 2.3% for high-income countries.

Uganda is fortunately in a position to benefit from the experiences of dozens of countries that
have already navigated this juncture. A prototypical pattern has emerged from this collective
experience. With income growth, performance varies by sector. This is mostly because higher
income fuels faster growth in demand for urban-based industrial and service sector outputs.
Labor therefore migrates to these urban sectors, responding to their call for more workers voiced
through higher urban wages. As they leave the countryside, self-subsistence agriculture is
rapidly displaced by large-scale production. The remaining rural inhabitants must learn to feed
not only themselves, but also the growing cities. The urban sector produces for itself, for its
rural countrymen, and for export to foreign consumers. All of this structural transformation
requires higher productivity. After all, income per person can only rise if output per person
rises.

This is where the link to the PPET and higher education comes in. Increases in output per
worker are achieved through efficiency improvements and higher capital-labor ratios. At the
workplace, this means carefully planning the production process, as well as employing more
expensive and more complex equipment for all workers. Whether it involves robotics on the
shop floor or computerized reservations at the hotel, people must learn about sophisticated tools.
The people who use and maintain them need more basic skills and on-the-job training. The
people who design the tools and manage the systems that employ them need higher education.

This pattern is clearly emerging in Uganda, though slowly. While agriculture grew on average
3.7% in the 1990s, its rate of growth fell far behind that of industry, especially the
manufacturing and service sectors, which grew at average rates of 12.7%, 14.2%, and 8.1%
respectively. Economists have every expectation that these sectors will continue to grow at
similar rates. This means that middle-level skills are or will be needed urgently by the
economy. A focus on science, technology, and engineering, as argued before, will agree with
the general trend of the economy and can bring Uganda in line with successful international
examples of PPET in the service of economic development. The so called “middle-level skills”
and “a focus on science and technology” is still within the basic secondary literacy, numeracy,
and problem-solving skills mentioned above and they by no means refer to occupation-specific
skills which are better provided by the private sector.

Table: Growth of Outputs 1990-99
                                               Gross domestic product         Agriculture           Industry         Manufacturing        Services
                                            1980-90             1990-99   1980-90 1990-99     1980-90 1990-99      1980-90 1990-99   1980-90 1990-99
Low income                                    4.7                 3.2        3          2.5     5.4          2.8     7.7       2.7     5.6        4.7
Middle income                                 3.3                 3.5       3.6          2      3.7          4.3     4.6       6.3     3.6        3.7
High Income                                   3.4                 2.3                                        1.4

Low & Middle Income
 East Asia & Pacific                           8                  7.5       4.4       3.3       9.5        9.8      10.4     10.2      8.8      6.5
 Europe & Central Asia                                           -2.3                -2.9                 -3.2                                  0.8
 Latin America & Caribbean                    1.7                 3.4       2.3       2.3       1.4        3.4      1.3      2.6       1.8      3.5
 Middle East & N. Africa                       2                   3        5.6       2.6       0.4        2.1               2.8       2.2      3.4
 South Asia                                   5.6                 5.6       3.2       3.4       6.8        6.5      7.1       7        6.5      6.9
 Sub-Saharan Africa                           1.7                 2.2       2.3       2.7       1.2        1.5      1.7      1.6       2.4      2.4

Uganda                                        2.9                7.2        2.1       3.7        5        12.7      3.7      14.2      2.8      8.1
Source: World Development Indicators 2001

                                                       Table 25: Growth of Outputs 1990-99



4.3 System Inputs

4.3.1 Governance and Management

Post-primary Education and Training (PPET) is the primary responsibility of two departments in
the MOES: the Secondary Education Department (SED) and the Department of Business,
Technical and Vocational Education and Training (DBTVET). Both departments are headed by a
Commissioner, who directly reports to the Permanent Secretary. There are no organisation and
governance arrangements for the PPET system as a whole. Capacity for both SED and DBTVET
is limited. Staffing appears to be inadequate in both departments as there are about 10
professional staff posted at ministry headquarters of the SED and only 4 at the DBTVET.


The principle of decentralisation is clearly articulated in the Article 176(2) of the Constitution.
The Local Governments Act of 1997 stipulates that both primary and secondary education should
be the responsibility of District Councils. While the management of the primary education
system has been decentralised to District Councils and District Education Offices, MOES still
retains full formal control over secondary education. Most senior managers interviewed at
MOES headquarters believe that it will be some time before there is sufficient capacity at the
district level for the full decentralisation of secondary education to be possible. To be fair,
efforts are already underway to build capacity at the district level from the Ministry and the
Universities.
Therefore, both SED and DBTVET have overall responsibility for all areas of policy for
secondary education and BTVET, respectively, although other departments and units in the
Ministry (including the Policy Analysis Unit and the Education Planning Department) provide
some assistance. In practice, however, senior managers in both SED and DBTVET are mainly
preoccupied with the day-to-day management of the secondary school system and have relatively
little time or capacity to deal with their main functional areas of responsibility, namely policy,
planning and quality control.

School-level Management and “de factor Decentralization”. At the school level, the Board
of Governors (BoG), Parent Teacher Association (PTA) and Headteachers are all involved in the
management of secondary schools.

The 1992 Education Act empowers Boards of Governors to take full responsibility for all aspects
of school management. The BoGs are composed of representatives from school and the
founding body. The latter selects the Chair of the BoG. Members of BoGs are selected at the
school level but are subject to the Ministry‟s approval. However, most members of BoGs have
not been given appropriate training in order to fulfill their duties, and, especially in rural areas,
they tend to have poor educational backgrounds.

With parents now funding a substantial proportion of expenditures in most government-aided
secondary schools, PTAs have become increasingly important in the management of schools,
often resulting in the „twin control‟ of schools by BoGs and PTAs, which often has serious
consequences for management efficiency.

Most private, for-profit schools and training centers do not have BoGs. However, the new
Education Bill states that all PPET institutions will be required to have BoGs. Once this is
enacted, the institutional arrangements for school management will be standardized. However,
the Bill does not clarify the role of the PTA and its relationship with the BoG. Interestingly,
founding bodies are to be given an even greater say in the selection of BoG members.

Finally, the limited supervision by the MOES (for lack of resources and capacity) has meant that,
in practice, the system is very “decentralized”. Secondary schools have a very high degree of
organizational, management and financial autonomy. The weakness of many BoGs and, more
generally, the increasing complexity of school governance arrangements on the ground have
enhanced the position of the headteacher who have become “power into themselves”.
Secondary headteachers are not sufficiently accountable and minimally supervised, and are not
subject to any concrete performance incentives.

Management information.          Since the mid 1990s, Uganda has developed a fairly
comprehensive Education Management Information System (EMIS), with support from the
Academy of Education Development. The EMIS system provides up to date information on
student enrolments and educational attainment (repetition and dropouts), as well as physical,
financial and human resources information for each type of educational institution. However, due
to both technical and organizational shortfalls, the EMIS has not yet been fully integrated in the
planning and management processes at the national and district levels.
The current EMIS also has not developed a standard categorization for the various PPET
institutions. This can be illustrated by the fact that there are different categories of schools in
the 2000 Statistics as compared to 2001. This is particularly relevant for PPET as the subsector
is very complex in terms of organization. The data for the BTVET is particularly not
comprehensive or reliable. Despite significant improvements during the last 2-3 years, many
private schools and other training centres are still not included in the EMIS, and the quality of
some data (particularly income and expenditure) is still quite poor. The EMIS software is not
particularly user-friendly and, even with assistance from EPD programmers, the annual data-sets
are quite difficult to analyse. Capacity at the district level to collect and verify school data also
remains limited.


A relevant issue is that unlike the primary subsector, there is a lack of macro incentive for
developing reliable data for PPET. The priority nature of the primary sector has allowed it to
utilize the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and progress (hence funding) is measured by
the achievement of a set of previously identified indicators. This creates a huge macro incentive
for the EMIS to produce timely and reliable data for primary education. Such a context is still
lacking for PPET.

Inspection. Secondary schools in Uganda are rarely inspected. The situation is worse for
private and community schools. This lack of regular and proper inspection is one of many
weaknesses of the secondary school system in Uganda. Quality control of secondary schools is
supposed to be the responsibility of the Inspectorate. The rapid growth in secondary schools in
recent years has far outstripped the very limited capacity of the Inspectorate which is based in
MOES headquarters.

In order to redress this situation, the government has recently approved the establishment of an
Education Standard Agency (ESA) as an autonomous body responsible for quality control of
education at all levels. This is in line with the recommendation in the White Paper of 1992 to
strengthen the Inspectorate by making it an autonomous body. The Chief Executive of the ESA
will report to the Minister through the Permanent Secretary. According to the new (2001)
Education Bill, the Minister will be ultimately accountable to Parliament for all ESA activities. It
has been recommended that the ESA should have a three-tier structure, comprising the central,
divisional, and sub-divisional teams. Secondary schools will fall under the responsibility of the
ESA divisional teams, each of which will cover an educational region. It is expected that the
registration of private schools will be an important source of income. ESA staff will make
regular inspections of private schools.

4.3.2 Teachers

Pupil:teacher Ratio. The World Education Report 2000 reports that the pupil:teacher ratio
(PTR) in secondary schools in Uganda has been steady since 1990-96 (18:1). According to the
1998 official MIS data, there are altogether 16,206 teachers at the secondary level, which is
equivalent to a pupil:teacher ratio of 23:1. However, data from the Annual School Census for
2000 indicate that the national average for the pupil:teacher ratio in 2000 has decreased to 17
(30,384 teachers over an enrollment of 518,931). This ratio is well below the African average
pupil:teacher ratio of 25 in secondary schools.

The Pupil:teacher ratio varied considerably from district to district. Kalangala was ranked
lowest, with a ratio of 12, while Moyo and Kotido ranked highest, with ratios of 30. The mode
ratio was 18.      This suggests that there is considerable room for efficiency improvement,
especially in districts where the ratios are below the national average.

However, care needs to be taken so that quality of education will not suffer as a result of
efficiency improvement. There may be a case for low pupil:teacher ratios in scarcely-populated
areas. Also, the deployment of teachers can not be separated from the curriculum requirements.
It will be difficult to increase the pupil:teacher ratio if there are many subjects to be taught and
teachers only teach one subject.

                                Figure 16: Pupil-teacher Ratio by Region




                                  Source: Annual School Census 2000

Teacher Qualification. Secondary school teachers in Uganda are relatively well qualified.
The Annual School Census 2000 data indicate that 29% of the faculty at secondary schools in
Uganda had at least a first graduate degree, with less than two percent having postgraduate
degrees of some kind. Teachers who have at least a first graduate degree are called “graduate”
teachers. Of the remaining 71%, about 96% had secondary education. This means that the
majority of secondary school teachers (95%) had at least secondary education themselves. The
most common degree/certification level was that of A-level education with a certificate or
diploma in Education. Over 50% of the teachers fell in this category and they are called “Grade
V” teachers. Less than 5% have a below A-level education.

                           Table 26: Teacher Education by Gender and Degree

            EDUCATION             MALE          FEMALE TOTAL    % FEMALE %TOTAL
            Doctorate                      13         1      14       7.14   0.05
            Masters                           321        108        429   25.17    1.14
            Post grad diploma                 862        203     1,065    19.06    3.51
            Graduate (first degree)         5,893      1,634      7527    21.71   24.77
            A-level + Cert./Dip.          12,077       3,142    15,219    20.65      50
            A-level                         3,804        636     4,440    14.32      15
            O-level + Cert./Dip.              609        115        724   15.88       2
            O-level                            65          8         73   10.96       0
            Primary + Cert./Dip.               74         17         91   18.68       0
            Primary                            66          7         73    9.59       0
            Unknown                           604        125        729   17.15       2
            TOTAL                         24,388       5,996    30,384    19.73     100
                                      Source: Annual School Census 2000

Teaching load: There is clear evidence that teachers, especially teachers of optional subjects in
certain schools and districts, are seriously underutilized. The Teacher Utilization Study
surveyed a total of 92 secondary schools in mid-2001. Teachers at these schools taught an
average of 22.5 periods per week, which were broken down as follows: UCE teachers: 22.5,
UACE: 20, and UCE and UACE: 25. Given that the average secondary school has a 50-period
week (see Section 4.3.3 Curriculum), teacher workloads represent in general less than half of the
weekly requirements.

The report defines „optimally utilized‟ UCE and UACE teachers as teaching between 22-26
periods and 16-20, respectively. On the basis of these „MOES staffing norms‟, 34% of teachers
are under-utilized, 27% over-utilized and 39% optimally utilized. Most of the under-utilized
teachers teach only one subject. (One subject: 20.9 periods, two subjects: 23.1 periods and three
subjects: 25.8 periods). Forty-five percent of teachers teach only one subject, though all teachers
have been trained to teach two subjects.

There are very large district-level variations in teaching loads. Teachers in 25 out of the 45
districts have average teaching loads of more than 20 periods a week. In five districts, however,
teaching loads average less than 15 periods (Apac, Bushenyi, Gulu, Kampala, and Sembabule).

Teaching workloads also seem to vary considerably by the subject teachers teach. They are
generally highest for science, English and Math teachers (25-30 periods) and lowest for teachers
in subjects (such as agriculture), which are taken as options in S3 and S4.

The teaching load norm at BTVET institutions seems to be even lower than that of general O and
A-level schools at about 10-14 hours per week.
There is, therefore, a considerable room for efficiency improvement especially in technical and
vocational institutions. The picture, nevertheless is quite complex, since there are also teachers
who appear to be over utilized, especially those who teach science, English, and mathematics
and those who teach more than two or more subjects.

Teacher Specialization and Major Subject Taught. Only 10% of the secondary teachers
were specialized in math or technical subjects, though this number jumps to 31% when the
sciences are added. Non-technical subjects, such as arts and crafts, social studies, foreign
languages, local languages, religious studies, and English accounted for 48% of teachers
specializations. Commercial subjects and economics also made up a small fraction.

It is obvious from the number of instructors teaching in each subject area that not all were
teaching classes within their areas of specialization. The number of teachers teaching math,
science, and technical subjects, as well as social studies, local languages, foreign languages,
commercial subjects and English are more than the number of teachers specializing in these
areas. However, the number of teachers teaching religious studies, arts and crafts, and
non-specified subjects is actually fewer than the number of teachers specializing in these areas.
The increase in the number of teachers teaching math, science, and technical subjects may
indicate demand for those subjects in excess of the existing trained personnel in those areas.
The higher demand for math and science teachers, coupled with the fact that Uganda secondary
students have poor performance in these subjects as compared to others, provides convincing
evidence that Uganda PPET reforms, whichever format they take, should not neglect the
teaching and learning of math and science subjects.

Teacher Management and Performance

Selection and recruitment. To date, teacher recruitment has been quite decentralized. Teachers
seek out job opportunities by visiting schools. Once a school has selected a teacher, official
approval is then sought from the MOES head office. Because the MOES often has had
inadequate information about the exact staffing situation in each school, the Ministry has not
been in a position to ensure that recruitment decisions are well founded.

There is also much inefficiency in the appointment (start receiving payment) and deployment of
teachers (start teaching). The Teacher Utilization Survey found that teachers in about 30% of
districts had been appointed yet remained un-deployed for more than a year. In half of the
districts, teachers had been deployed but had waited for more than a year before they were
formally appointed. The report notes that „delayed deployment after appointment is likely to
cause anxiety, undermine morale, and is a waste of financial resources. Delay in being appointed
also saps morale and leads to exploitation of the teacher by the government since the teacher
works for sometime when she/he is not certain about inclusion on the payroll‟. Serious attention
from the Ministry is needed to correct this situation.

The results from the ESC pilot validation exercise in four districts during 2001 are also
revealing. Out of the 1,217 teaching staff interviewed, 13.8% were on the payroll but not
appointed, 44.1% were on the payroll but not confirmed, 3.5% were receiving the wrong salary,
and 5.3% were illegally employed. No support staff had been appointed.

There has been a public sector recruitment freeze (except for primary teachers) since 1996 which
affects the hiring of secondary teachers. Most recruitment since then has been done informally
by individual schools that pay these teachers from PTA funds.
Around one quarter of the teachers sampled for the Teacher Utilization Survey were still on
probation because of the recruitment freeze.

Career structure and remuneration. There are three basic grades for trained secondary school
teachers who are on the public sector payroll: graduate teacher (U5a-3), Grade V diploma
teacher (U5c-b), and Grade III teacher (U7-6). Once appointed to each grade, the only avenue for
significant career progression is by promotion to deputy headteacher and headteacher, or by
qualification upgrading (from diploma to degree). The headteacher of an „O‟ level school is on
Grade U2 and Grade U1 at an O/A level school. The Teacher Utilization Study concludes that
the „lack of career progression has resulted in frustration among teachers, inducing many to leave
teaching or seeking administrative offices somewhere else‟.

Starting salaries in 2001 for graduate and Grade V teachers were Ush. 300,000 and
Ush.135,000 per month, respectively. Annual salary increments are too small (typically around
Ush. 2000) to sustain or improve teacher motivation. A new grade and salary structure was
introduced in 1994. Salaries were roughly doubled, but the salary differential between graduate
and diploma teachers was also increased very significantly (from 89% to 60%). Such a large
differential is widely regarded as inequitable, since it does not reflect actual differences in the
productivity and teaching performance between the two groups of teachers (there is no
performance evaluation system whatsoever). Paying teachers for diploma rather than at least
the level they teach does not seem wise either. With graduate teachers heavily concentrated in
urban schools, these schools have also benefited disproportionately.

Annual unit salary costs have increased from Ush. 0.53 million in 1994 to Ush. 2.86 million in
2001 (equivalent to US$1,787). In real terms, this is an increase of over 330% and, compared to
the GNP per capita of US$320, public secondary teachers in Uganda seem to be well paid on
average. In addition, most schools supplement the salaries of their teachers. Typically, about half
of PTA funds are allocated for this purpose. However, the level of salary supplementation varies
considerably from school to school. While well-resourced, high-fee schools can double basic
salaries, most secondary schools provide an additional Ush. 100,000-50,000 per month. Housing
and responsibility allowances of various kinds are also paid.

Teachers in private schools or teachers who are paid entirely out of PTA funds in government
schools generally receive much less than those fully paid by the government.
Informally appointed teachers are paid entirely from PTA funds and typically receive Ush.
70,000-100,000 per month. This is roughly the same as full-time teachers in private schools.
Part-time teachers in private schools are paid between Ush. 600-1000 per period. Given the
average teaching loads in government-aided schools, this is two-thirds less than salary costs per
period for teachers on the public sector payroll.

Professional Development. There are two types of professional development activities:
qualification upgrading and regular, in-service training.

Qualification upgrading. With the very large salary differential between graduate and diploma
teachers, Grade V teachers have a strong financial incentive to obtain a graduate teaching
qualification. The SEC report notes that there were about 300 „up-graders‟ on the payroll in 1999
„who are counted as though they are in class,‟ and teachers covering their work were mostly paid
for by parents. The report recommended that their numbers should be kept within the ceiling of
the school. In the late 2001, there were upwards of 4000 students enrolled on the B.Ed. distance
learning upgrading programme offered by the Department of Distance Education at Makerere
University. Another 2000 individuals were studying for the B.Ed. degree through evening classes
at MU and Mbare University. Tuition costs are U.Sh.1.8 million per annum.

Such training effort is commendable. However, it has major implications for teacher efficiency.
Studying for a degree (at a distance) in one‟s own time is demanding and time-consuming and,
unless a teacher is seriously under-utilized, it is likely to negatively affect teacher productivity
and overall performance. Information on overall completion rates still needs to be obtained, but
the evaluators met numerous teachers who had upgraded and evaluated the programme
positively. Head teachers believe that studying for the degree is worthwhile in terms of both
improved teacher competence and morale. The challenge then is to make sure students do not
lose teaching and learning as a result of their teacher pursuing degree programs.

In-service training. Secondary school teachers receive virtually no systematic in-service training.
The Teacher Utilization Study found that the teachers at the schools surveyed had attended 1.8
„refresher‟ courses since 1993.

There are Teacher Resource Centers in 31 districts, which are intended to provide in-service
training to secondary teachers. Each center is supposed to be staffed by a full-time
co-coordinator, librarian and an administrative assistant. However, MOES has not yet been able
to fulfill its formal commitment to put these staff on the payroll. They are seriously under-funded
and most are very under-utilized.

Summary on Teachers In summary, the Ugandan secondary education system leaves much to
be desired in the way of its teachers. Though teachers are generally well qualified, there is some
evidence that on average secondary teachers in Uganda are underutilized. Due to the great
disparity, it is important that interventions aimed at improving the efficiency should be targeted
only at schools with clearly low pupil:teacher ratio and low teaching loads. Also, very few
teachers are deployed promptly upon appointment. Teachers are generally well paid though
there is huge and perhaps unjustified difference in pay between graduate and diploma teachers.

Greater efforts should be made to encourage teachers to continue learning once deployed, and to
make sure that teachers receive the necessary qualifications in a timely fashion if they have not
already. In a system where there seems to be little incentive for teachers to enthusiastically
embrace their job as a career, it is the students who inevitably suffer most.

On the other hand, reforms in the area of teachers are sensitive and highly political, and they are
likely to be difficult despite the good intentions. Commitment needs to be sought from the
highest level of government possible. Teachers and their unions need to be brought on board as
soon as possible. And teachers should not see themselves only as “losers”, but rather as partners
working together to achieve higher quality teaching and learning for secondary school students.
The PPET system can not afford to alienate teachers who are the most important factor to
education.

4.3.3 Curriculum

The National Curriculum Development Center (NCDC) is responsible for the secondary school
curriculum. There are subject panels, but they do not meet often, and some subjects have
combined panels. The transferred VET institutions continue to be largely responsible for their
own curricula.

The secondary school curriculum has not undergone any major revision since the early 1970‟s.
The current „O‟ and „A‟ level curricula follow the subject guidelines issued by the Inspectorate
in 1982. Table 27 presents the number of subjects to be taken and the number of lessons per
week that are prescribed in these guidelines for S1-S4.

                 Table 27: Current „O‟-level curriculum based on the 1982 subject guidelines

                                                    S1 – S2                                S3 – S4
                                     no. of subjects     no. of lessons     no. of subjects to no. of lessons
                                     to be taken         per week           be taken            per week
                  Mathematics                                   6-7          1 (compulsory)           6-7
                  Physics                                      2-3                                     3-4
                  Chemistry                                    2-3                                     3-4
                  Biology                                      2-3                                     3-4
                  Geography                                    2-3                                     3-4
                  History                                      2-3                                     3-4
                  Sub-total                  6               16 – 22               5                 18 – 23
                  Technical                              3-4 or 5-7 for 4                              3-4
                  Subjects                                   subjects
                  Home                                         3-4                                3-4 or 5-6
                  Economics
                  Business                                   2-3 for 3                                4-6
                  Studies                                    subjects
                  Agriculture                                   3-4                                   5-6
                  Arts and Crafts                               3-4                                   4-6
                  Sub-total                3                  6 – 18              1                   3–6
                  English              Compulsory               6-7         1 (compulsory)            6-7
                  Language
                  PE                   Compulsory              1-2                n.a.
                  Literature in       Not treated as           n.a.                                   3-4
                  English            separate subject
                  Music                                        1-2                                    3-4
                  Religious                                    2-3                                    3-4
                  Education
                  Political                                    2-3                                    3-4
                  Education
                  French                                       3-4                                     4-5
                  German                                       3-4                                     4-5
                  Luganda                                      3-4                                     4-5
                  Kiswahili                                    3-4                                     4-5
                  Other language                               3-4                                     4-5
                  Sub-total                 5                12 – 21               2                  9 – 12
 Minimum no.                                14               34 – 61         9 (S3) 10 (S4)          33 – 48
 subjects* and
 total lesson
 periods

            Source: MOES (1999) Setting Staff Establishment Ceilings for Post-Primary Institutions
The proposed „O‟ level curriculum in the 1992 Education White Paper lists up to eight subjects
for „general‟ secondary schools and 16 subjects for the new „comprehensive‟ secondary schools.
However, this has never been implemented.

With no clear guidance and little or no supervision with respect to curriculum implementation,
what is taught at schools is strongly driven by the UNEB examination guidelines. In such an
exam-driven system, it is perhaps not surprising that the upper subject limit has become the
norm. In 1999, 80% of government-aided secondary schools offered 16-18 subjects at S1-S2.
However, due mainly to lack of laboratory facilities, only 30% of all secondary schools (i.e. both
government-aided and private) offer physics and chemistry at the S3-4 levels. Instead, arts
subjects are taught as a deliberate strategy to increase pass rates. Non-examined subjects, such as
physical education and music, were taught by less than 10 % of the schools.

Following this curriculum means that most secondary schools have a 50-period week. Periods
are 40 minutes in duration, but these are usually combined into double periods wherever
possible. By international standards, the school day seems very long -- typically from 8.30 am
to 5pm, with only a half-an-hour morning break and one hour for lunch. This leaves little time
for co-curricula activities. Most students do not get home until early evening and still have to do
homework. Poor housing and lack of electricity makes this difficult to complete homework
properly for many students. On the other hand, it is perhaps a good thing that students spend
long hours in school where the learning environment is better than most homes. The concern
that too many subjects are being covered, nevertheless is still valid and should be addressed.


4.3.4 Physical Infrastructure

For many years, secondary schools have been largely reliant on their own resources for the
construction and equipping of classrooms, laboratories and other buildings. Though the
overall pupil:classroom ratio of 46:1 in 2000 was not too bad, there is great variation:
Bundibugyo and Kotido had to accommodate more than 70 students per classroom. According
to the 2000 Education Statistical Abstrat, there are also serious shortages of other buildings
including workshops and libraries. (see Table 28). (check definition of “needs”).

                              Table 28: Buildings at secondary schools, 2000



                  Type of building
              Classrooms                  11,216           3,026       5,387    27.4
              Latrine Blocks               5,186             885       2,710    30.9
              Libraries                      709             293       1,334    57.1
              Office                       3,553             517       2,288    36.0
              Staff Rooms                  1,445             224         918    35.5
              Store Rooms                  2,363             390       1,865    40.4
              Teacher‟s Houses             5,496             836      13,555    68.2
              Workshops                      377             189       1,617    74.1
              Total                       30,345           6,360      29,674    44.7
               Source: Annual School Census



4.3.5 Learning Materials

It has been long established that the availability of textbooks and other teaching and learning
materials has a consistently positive impact on student achievement in developing countries.
Box 3 provides an interesting experiment on textbooks. Unfortunately there is a chronic shortage
of textbooks and other learning materials in many secondary schools in Uganda, contributing to
the poor quality of education. It has been estimated that the overall student: book ratio may be
6:1 in secondary schools. The situation varies greatly depending on the type of school.
Generally, the pupil:book ratio is better in government-aided schools than in private schools, and
better in lower forms compared to higher forms, as well as better in Kampala and other urban
regions than other areas. Box 2 illustrates some relevant findings on textbooks from a recent
study on “The Provision of Instructional Materials to Secondary Institutions in Uganda” .

                                                   Box 2
A recent survey of 35 secondary schools in seven districts in Uganda revealed that :

1. Three “elite” schools in Kampala claimed that all pupils at all grades had textbooks in the core subjects.
2. Most other schools in Kampala region estimated ratios of 1 textbook to 2 or 3 pupils in the lower
forms, rising to 1 to 10 or more for some subjects in the higher forms.
3. In Mubende District only three of the six schools surveyed estimated as high a ratio as 1 textbook to 5
pupils in the lower grades.
4. In most of the schools surveyed in Kibale District the textbook provision situation was dire. Some
schools estimated that they had 1 textbook for every ten pupils, but in others there were few if any
textbooks in the school even for the use of teachers.


                                                   Box 3
                                   The “Book Flood” Experiment in Fiji

In 1980, grade 4 and 5 classes in eight rural schools in Fiji were inundated with a wide range of
high-interest, illustrated storybooks in English. Each grade 4 and 5 teachers received 250 books. Half
the “book flood” teachers were trained to use the Shared Book method, whereby the teachers spends
several days discussing the book, the pictures, and the title and reading aloud while the children listen.
The other half of the teachers merely encouraged children to read silently for thirty minutes each day. A
control group of similar students were taught English using a conventional approach without reading any
books.
Students were tested before the Book Flood began, again after eight months of the program, and again
one year later. Both Book Flood groups showed much greater improvement than the control group. In
the first eight months, the Share Book group and the Silent Reading group had each improved their
reading levels by 15 months, while the control group had shown only 6.5 months‟ gain. After nearly two
years with the enriched reading program, the Book Flood groups had increased their growth even more,
and the effects also persisted on the national examinations, in which the pass rate was twice as high for
the Book Flood students (73%) as for students in conventional rural schools (37%).

Source: Elley and Maugubhai (1983).
From the World Bank Policy Paper on Primary Education, 1993).

Funding of Textbooks. The same study on instructional materials also revealed that though in
theory, all schools should have an annual budget for textbooks which come from the capitation
grant, fee income, or any other school level incomes, these textbooks and library budgets were
rarely spent, the money being diverted to other school needs. In reality, textbooks account for
less than 2% of total expenditure at the school level. The MOES contributes less than one-third
of this amount. Most of the capitation grant provided by the Ministry has been used for other
“more urgent” purposes, including subsidizing teacher salaries and other repair and maintenance
needs. It may be necessary for the Ministry to restrict the use of capitation grants only for
non-wage expenditures including materials and other operating costs, rather than on teacher
salaries.

Very few schools received any textbooks from the Ministry of Education and Sports in recent
years. In cases when they do, the number of textbooks provided had been small. The
textbooks provided were mostly not those required by the schools, who would much prefer to
have been allocated budget so that they could select the textbooks that they really need.

Most schools lend to their students the textbooks if they have them. And the levels of loss were
mostly very low because of sanctions imposed. However, most schools do not have books to
lend to students, and therefore, whether or not students have textbooks is very much dependent
on whether or not their parents can afford them. Able parents purchase textbooks according to
book lists provided by the school. The retail prices of most core subject textbooks range from
Ush. 30-60,000. Given that these books are not affordable for the large majority of students,
alternative, low-cost „pamphlets‟ are now widely available. These are written by teachers and
draw heavily on the material found in standard texts. Most are little more than examination
crammers.

There is a chronic shortage of training materials at BTVET schools and institutes, which, in the
case of the VTIs, has been very seriously aggravated by the abolition of cost recovery in 2001.
Consequently, students do not have enough practice in mastering basic techniques. As one
instructor put it, „we are just producing theoretical technicians‟. In contrast, at the well resourced
private not-for-profit training center, practical training accounts for 70% of total instruction.

4.3.6 Access to Information

The world is increasing moving toward an information age. The success of PPET education is
also intricately entwined with access to information. Unfortunately Uganda currently does not
do well in this regard. The World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2001) reported that
only 2 out of 1000 people in Uganda have access to a daily newspaper, as compared to 12 for
Sub-Saharan Africa. Taking into consideration the much higher adult literacy rates, this
circulation is low. Also, only 127 out of 1000 people have access to radios, 28 out of 1000
people have televisions, and 2.5 out of 1000 people have a personal computer. There were only
0.7 internet hosts for every 10,000 people, 25,000 internet users in the entire country, and one
single secure internet server in the country. These statistics show that Uganda is way below
even the average levels of Sub-Saharan Africa, let alone the rest of the world.
                                                         Table 29: The Information Age

Table: The Information age

                                                                                    Television   personal    Internet
                                              Daily newspaper                       (per 1000    computers   hosts per Internet  Internet
                                              (per 1000 people   Radios (per 1000   people       (per 1000   10,000    users     secure
                                                    1996)         people 1999)      1999)        people)     people    thousands server

Low income                                                             157              85         4.4         0.48      4,766       224
Middle income                                                          360             279         27.1        13.2      45,241     4,622

Low & Middle Income
 East Asia & Pacific                                                   302             252          17         3.98      23,593      844
 Europe & Central Asia                              102                446             370         39.3        24.1      10,184     1,392
 Latin America & Caribbean                           71                419             272         37.7        29.6      9,687      1,946
 Middle East & N. Africa                             33                272             175         25.4        0.67      1,153       72
 South Asia                                                            113              71         3.2         0.31      3,034       97
 Sub-Saharan Africa                                 12                 201              43         8.4         3.1       2,357       495

Uganda                                               2                 127              28          2.5        0.07        25         1
Source: World Development Indicators, 2001.
4.4 Cost and Financing of Post-primary Education and Training

4.4.1 Public Expenditure

The Budget Process. The budget process in the education sector follows two distinctly
separate tracks, depending on the nature and priority of the activity. The high priority placed on
the primary education sub-sector has permitted the use of enhanced budgetary management and
associated budget execution mechanisms as laid out in Government‟s Poverty Action Fund
(PAF). The other PPET sub-sector components, on the other hand, operate largely along the lines
of incremental budget preparation and disbursement mechanisms. As a consequence, while work
plans, disbursements, monitoring and accountability arrangements for high priority primary
education programmes are made on a quarterly basis, are regular, and are almost 100%
guaranteed, programmes in the low priority PPET sub-sector components have had almost no
growth in real resources budgeted for each year since 1994/95; they receive disbursement
depending on the circumstances surrounding revenue performance and other budget operations,
and at the discretion of officials at the central ministries.

At the school level, government subsidy comes mainly in two forms: teacher salary and
capitation grants. In so-called government or government-aided schools, teachers who are
appointed by the Ministry of Education are directly paid by the Ministry according to a
pre-determined pay schedule. Government schools also received a block capitation grant every
year for pedagogical purposes. The level of the capitation grant is determined by the Ministry
and is currently set at about Ush65 per student per day. However, the disbursement of
capitation grants is vulnerable to overall government resource constraints and inter-sectoral
demands, since it is not classified as a protected priority. The level of the capitation grants is
therefore unpredictable from month to month, with an added difficulty arising out of
disbursement delays.

Additionally, the Government introduced a bursary scheme for needy students. The budgeted
bursary for needy students totaled Ush510million in 2001/2, rising to Ush1.68 billion in 2003/4.
However, this is only a drop in the ocean, and many secondary schools do not appear to have
access to any bursaries. Furthermore, very little is known to the public about the bursary
scheme and the selection criteria and thus it is very likely that children with real needs may not
be benefiting from the current scheme. This is an area that needs to be looked into by the
government especially if the expansion of the bursary scheme is to become an explicit strategy
for system equity. It is also extremely difficult to target bursaries by income. Thus it may be
necessary to devise more innovative targeting mechanism, such as, to schools which charge fees
below certain level and are not the choice of relatively wealthy families.

Share of Education Budget Devoted to PPET. As discussed in the previous section on
government financing on education, the secondary share of total recurrent education budget has
been around 15%, and the share of TVET has been around 3%. This level of expenditure on
secondary education is very low compared to international standards, as shown in Table 30.
Sub-Saharan African countries on average spend almost 28% of their total education budget on
secondary education.
                      Table 30: Secondary Education Expenditure as a % of all Levels
        Public Education Expenditure
        (Secondary as % of all levels)   1985 or closest year    1995 or latest year available



        High Income                                          41.4                                44.2
        Middle Income                                        34.6                                37.7
        Low Income                                           33.6                                36.4

        OECD                                                 38.1                                41.4
        Sub-Saharan Africa                                   34.1                                28.3
        Arab States                                          49.1                                59.2
        Latin America and Caribbean                          24.5                                25.4
        East Asia and Pacific                                  33                                36.6
               of which: China                               33.2                                32.2
        Southern Asia                                        40.2                                37.4
               of which: India                               25.3                                26.5

        Developing                                           32.8                                34.3
        Least Developed                                        30                                27.7

        Uganda (91, 99)                                        17                           15
           Sources: Ugandan Ministry of Education and Sports; Human Development Report 2000

The nominal budgetary allocation for secondary recurrent was Ush51.3 billion for the fiscal year
2000/2001, of which Ush38 billion (78% of total secondary recurrent) was for teacher wages,
Ush5.23 billion (11%) was for capitation grants to schools, Ush5.7 billion was (12%) for other
quality improvement, and Ush0.13 billion (0.3%) was for Ministry overheads.

It should, of course, be noted that, in the case of Uganda, this low share in secondary education
expenditure as a percentage of total education expenditure largely reflects a high level of
expenditure on primary education, as the introduction of UPE in 1997 placed serious demands on
the government for financial resources.

Further, the Government has entered an agreement with all its development partners that the
share of primary education should be fixed at about 70% for at least the next 5 years (confirm
figures), in order to make sure that the enrollment gains achieved through UPE are maintained
and the quality of primary education further improved. In the tertiary sector, the government is
also contemplating significant system reforms which may reduce the tertiary budget share in the
long term. However, in the short term, the tertiary budget is likely to increase which means that
the tertiary share may also increase in the short term, given the recent political promises made,
including the establishment of two more public universities and the doubling of the number of
government-sponsored students at Makerere University. In this context, the best we can hope
for secondary education is for the share of secondary budget allocation to be maintained at about
15% of the education budget, with a share for BTVET of about 3%. Therefore, any policy
proposals need to take into account this macro resource constraint.
Public Expenditure Per Pupil

Based on the 2000/01 budget and using the 2000 secondary enrollment in government schools of
216,292 as a data source, public expenditure per secondary student amounts to a total of
Ush236,994 (about US$148).

                       Table 31: 2001/02 Planned Budget for Secondary Recurrent Expenditure

                                                                               Quality
                                                       Teacher     Capitation Improveme
                                                       Wages       Grants      nts         Ministry    Total
Total Planned 2001/2 (Ush.Billion)                            38.0         5.8         5.7         0.1        51.3
Per secondary student (government school only) (Ush)      175,827     26,816       26,353         583      236,994


The 2000 Education Statistical Abstract also reported public expenditure per student by district.
However, public expenditure per pupil was derived by dividing total public expenditure by total
enrollment instead of enrollment in government schools. Also, total expenditure did not include
overhead expenditure incurred at the central offices. Therefore, the average public expenditure
per student reported in the 2000 Education Statistics Abstract is only Ush72,252 (equivalent to
US$45), which is substantially lower than the Ush236,994 reported above.

If we use Ush236,994 as a measure of public expenditure per secondary student, the level of
expenditure as a % of GNP per capita amounts to 46%, double the world average of 22.5% and
still higher than the Sub-Saharan average of 36.5% (Table 32).

The Government subsidy per primary student averaged about US$22, as compared to US$148
per secondary student (see Section on Cost and Financing) and US$860 per university student in
public universities. This results in a ratio of 1:7:39. Lewin and Calloids (2001) noted that “the
comparison of public unit costs between primary and secondary is striking. In very low gross
enrolment countries this ratio averages 3.5:1; in high gross enrolment countries the ratio is only
1.3:1. Part of the reason for this lies in pupil:teacher ratios”. The policy implications are that
the relative high costs of secondary education must be reduced if the gross enrolment ratio is to
grow. Of course, one must also bear in mind that in Uganda the cost of primary education is
low.

                        Table 32: Expenditure per Secondary Student as a % of per capita GNI
                               Expenditure per Secondary Student
                               As % of GNI per capita (1997)

                                WORLD                                                   22.5

                                High Income                                             21.9
                                Middle Income                                           17.9
                                Low Income                                              29.6

                                OECD                                                    21.6
                                Sub-Saharan Africa                                      36.5
                           Arab States                                            19.5
                           Latin America and Caribbean                             9.9
                           East Asia and Pacific                                  11.7
                                  of which: China                                 11.7
                           Southern Asia                                          13.8
                                  of which: India                                 17.7

                           Developing                                       21.2
                           Least Developed                                  31.5
                                Sources: World Development Indicators 2000,
                                   World Bank online GNI data for 2000


Public per Pupil Expenditure by District. Though underestimated for the reasons mentioned
above, the per student expenditure data from the 2000 Education Statistical Abstract can be used
to illustrate the variation of public expenditure per pupil among districts. There are large
differences in public expenditure per pupil across districts. At the extremes, average district per
pupil expenditure differed by a factor of 27. Since capitation grants remain the same for all
schools, the main reasons for this are variations in the proportions of (relatively more costly) the
graduate teachers who are employed, school and class size, student:teacher ratios, and teaching
periods per week. Graduate teachers are also concentrated in urban schools, which tend to be
larger both in terms of overall enrolment and class size.




     Table 33: Public Expenditure Per Pupil by District (including both government and private enrollment)

           District   Expend        District   Expend       District   Expend           District   Expend
        Adjumani        14,005   Kiboga          47,350    Moroto        68,948      Rukungiri       84,474
        Bundibugyo      25,204   Busia           47,438    Hoima         69,926      Tororo          91,956
        Nakasongola     30,826   Sembabule       49,500    Mpigi         70,450      Lira            94,199
        Mubende         34,298   Mbale           52,114    Luwero        71,126      Kampala         94,349
        Iganga          35,655   Rakai           56,804    Nebbi         73,072      Mukono          95,039
        Kisoro          37,350   Kumi            58,279    Mbarara       73,896      Ntungamo       107,055
        Bugiri          38,011   Kitgum          58,458    Moyo          74,255      Apac           121,997
        Pallisa         38,674   Kibaale         58,535    Kasese        78,090      Jinja          212,749
        Masindi         41,751   Kabarole        59,067    Arua          78,929      Kalangala      378,238
        Kamuli          43,812   Masaka          67,963    Kabale        79,091
        Katakwi         46,738   Kapchorwa       67,985    Gulu          79,329      National        72,252
        Soroti          46,772   Kotido          68,183    Bushenyi      82,183

                Source: Educational Statistical Abstract 2000, Ministry of Education and Sports, Uganda

Equity of Public Expenditure. This section briefly analyses who benefits from the
government subsidies to secondary education. The structure of the education system itself, in
terms of enrollments and subsidies, determines the equity of public education expenditure.

Using estimates of government expenditure on secondary education by district from the year
2000 Statistical abstract and estimates of the secondary age-eligible population from the same
source, we developed a table that shows the cumulative share of total age-eligible population (in
ascending order from poorest to least poor) and cumulative share of total government
expenditure on secondary education. (Table 34)

Public expenditure on secondary education is regressive, that is, the wealthier population are
benefiting disproportionately more from the public subsidies in secondary education than the
poorer households. Table 34 indicates that the poorest 20% of the population are only enjoying
13% of government subsidy whereas the richest 20% of the population are enjoying 34% the
subsidy. Figure 17 is the Lorenz curve illustrating the same issue of inequity. The estimated
Gini ratio is 0.22 (In the case of perfect equality, the ratio would equal to zero; in the case of
perfect inequality, it would equal to one).

                     Table 34: Cumulative % of public subsidy by population cohorts
                       Population Cohorts           % of Public Subsidy
                       Q1 (poorest)                                          13
                       Q2                                                    12
                       Q3                                                    19
                       Q4                                                    22
                       Q5 (richest)                                          34




                        Figure 17: Accumulated Subsidy by Population Cohorts
                        100.0%



                        80.0%
  Accumulated Subsidy




                        60.0%



                        40.0%



                        20.0%



                         0.0%
                             0.0%   20.0%   40.0%      60.0%    80.0%   100.0%
                                            Cohort Population




                                                      Figure : Lorenz Curve




The source of inequity in PPET public financing lies in two areas. First of all most poor
children do not go to secondary schools, so they are not benefiting from any subsidies that
government may provide to secondary schools. Secondly, of those who do go to secondary
schools, most of poor children opt for cheaper private/community schools which do not receive
any government subsidy. Among those who go to government secondary schools, children from
wealthier families, tend to go to schools that are better resourced in terms of teachers (paid by the
government) and other inputs. These schools tend to have more teachers per student and more
teachers with higher qualifications. Because of the higher fees charged, normally only students
from relative wealthier families can afford such schools. Therefore apart from the smaller
enrollment of the poor, the deployment of better qualified and better paid teachers constitute a
major source of inequity in public financing of PPET.
Therefore, to achieve more equity in public financing of PPET, government support for
government schools will first need to be changed. A viable option is to devise a formula-based
funding earmarked for teacher salary based on student enrollment. Schools will have the
freedom to determine how to use this grant in terms of how many teachers and the mix of
qualifications. Discussions in the Section 4.3.5 Learning Materials have led to the
recommendation that the old capitation grant should be restricted only to non-wage expenditures
so that there is some guarantee at the school level to use the capitation grant for teaching and
learning materials. This means that we are recommending government provide two forms of
capitation grant to schools (both based on student enrollment of course): one earmarked for
teacher salary and the other for non-wage expenses.

The equity concern also has implication on the private sector provision. One of the Government
strategies to increase PPET coverage is through “relaxing current controls, restraints and quality
assurance checks on private education in order to encourage the rapid growth of private
secondary schools”. Without government support to private schools, further growth of private
provision will result in even greater inequity in public financing of PPET for reasons mentioned
above. This statement, however, does not mean we are advocating for public support to private
schools. The constraints on the PPET resource envelop may not allow this practice for the time
being. Again, the priority focus should be reforming the public subsidy to public schools.

4.4.2 Private Expenditures. Public expenditures on PPET, though already substantial as
revealed by the above analysis, are by no means the only cost to society in Uganda. Households
also bear a significant cost both in terms of direct costs and opportunity costs.

Private Direct Cost. We have mentioned several times that the major reason for not attending
secondary school is poverty. While public finance is well documented, much less is known
about the costs to students and families. This private cost applies both to families whose
children are attending government schools as well as in private/communities schools since even
government schools charge fees.

The 1999/2000 household survey collected information on total household expenditures on
various items in education including schools fees (including contributions to the Parent Teacher
Association, boarding and lodging, uniforms, books and supplies, and other expenses).
Estimates of expenditure associated with having a household member in an educational
institution were derived by regressing total household expenditure on education on the set of
variables for household members enrolled at each level. The regression coefficient on the
number of household members enrolled can be interpreted as the additional expenditure
associated with having one additional household member enrolled in that level of education
(Detailed analysis is provided in Annex 2).

Our best estimate of the private costs of having a household member in secondary school are
therefore in the range of Ush 238,000 to 241,000 per year. It is important to bear in mind that
these figures only reflect household expenditure. To the extent that extended family members,
or other sources, also contribute to educational expenditure, they may be biased downward.

Total Unit Cost (Direct) In short summary, we have estimated that the average annual direct
cost of providing public secondary education includes costs borne by the government at
Ush236,994 and by families at Ush241,000, suggesting a total average annual direct unit cost of
USH 478,000 per student. It is important to note that currently families meet over half of the
direct cost of secondary education, on average, even in government schools. In private and
community schools, government do not provide any subsidy, therefore the total unit cost should
be equal to the total private cost borne by the family.

This figure is very similar to the results from Unit Cost Study , which analyzed the school
expenditure patterns of 120 sampled PPET institutions nationwide. The Unit Cost concluded
that nationwide average recurrent unit cost per secondary student is about Ush.490,236. The
small difference may be due to the fact that the Unit Cost aggregated all sources of incomes at
the school level including government, households, and other donations.

Private Opportunity Cost. In addition to direct costs, families (and, by extension, society),
also incur “opportunity costs”. The “opportunity cost” of a student‟s time is the value of that
time in the best alternative activity. Using the 1999/2000 Household Survey and combining
the market employment and household enterprise productivity (weighted by the probability of
market employment), we estimated that the opportunity cost for PPET is about Ush265,007 (see
Annex 2 for detailed analysis on opportunity cost).

                                Table 35: Opportunity Cost of PPET



        Activity           Pct   Wage
  market employment         15% 498,443
  household enterprise      85% 223,812
  weighted average              265,007




This figure of Ush.265,007 is slightly higher than the average direct cost to households,
Ush241,000. We estimated earlier that the average public expenditure in PPET was Ush236,994
per pupil enrolled in secondary education. The combined cost to families (direct and indirect) is
Ush. 506,007, representing over two-thirds of the total recurrent cost of secondary schooling, as
shown in Figure 18.
                                      Figure 18: Costs of PPET




         32%
                                36%
                                               Indirect Cost
                                               Direct Cost - Family
                                               Direct Cost - Government




                  32%




How big are the average direct and indirect costs to of Ush241,000 and Ush. 265,000 to an
average household? It is important to bear in mind that 47% of the Uganda households have
annual income of less than Ush. 620,500 in 2000. To those families, the average private cost of
Ush.241,000 represents 40% of total household income, a proportion that is not affordable. On
the other hand, if they let the child to go to work, household annual income can be augmented by
more than 40%. In short, there may be little room for increasing the private financing of
education, in both the public and private sectors.
4.5 Business, Technical and Vocational Education

4.5.1 Institutions and Enrollment.

The Business, Technical and Vocational Education and Training (BTVET) is exceedingly
diverse, with education and training institutions from the business, health, agriculture, technical
and para-professional fields being brought under the purview of the MOES recently. The
BTVET component consists of the institutions as profiled in Table 36. The table provides
enrolment capacities and actual enrolment for the years 1994/95 – 2000/02 as reported by the
MOES .




                      Table 36: Institutional Profile of BTVET and Enrollment Capacity
                         No of
Category of Institutions Inst Enr                           Enrollment
                                Cap 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01
Vocational Training
Centers – DIT                 4     ..     ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..       ..
Technical Colleges            5 2500    1210    1762   2155     2200    2094    2055     2094
Technical Institutes         33 8500    6414    7405   7699     7650    7781    7750     7500
Technical/Farm Schools       29 8000    5837    6705   6316     7050    7019    7600     8028
Commercial Colleges           5 4000    2373    2319   2964     3000    3400    3400     3753
Agricultural Colleges         2 400        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..       ..
Forestry Colleges             1 200        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..       ..
Cooperative Colleges          2 250        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..       ..
Medical Schools and
Colleges                     17 4000       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..       ..
Meteorological Colleges       1    50      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..       ..

CP Instructors Colleges      11 1210
                               Source: Ministry of Education and Sports, Uganda

Table 36 shows that the Uganda public BTVET has enrollment capacity of around 25,000
students in the government institutions. There is some indication that the facilities may be
underutilized. This is relatively a small sector, roughly 10% of the total enrollment in general
public secondary schools.

However, strictly speaking, only a small proportion of the BTVET institutions, the 29
Technical/farm schools, are at the secondary level. Most of the BTVET admit students after
“O” level secondary education. Enrolment at the Technical/Farm schools appears to have
grown over time, though at a much slower pace than the growth of general secondary education.
The current enrollment at these schools is 8,028.

In the following discussions on BTVET policy context, organizational structure, and financing
mechanism, we will learn that the mixing of secondary technical schools with post-secondary
institutions has made it difficult for BTVET to formulate a coherent sub-sector strategy. It
seems plausible that the first step toward a coherent and viable BTVET strategy is to separate the
two.

Policy Context for BTVET. As in many other countries, the BTVET subsector suffers from its
residual role in an elite academic system. The system operates with a supply-driven approach
to teaching and learning without due regard to the evolving demand from the labor market.
However, the expectations from this component of the PPET have increased significantly, with
the need to accommodate the oncoming UPE bulge, the need to provide employable skills to the
vast majority of the population and improving productivity through provision of skills to industry
employees. The draft National Policy Framework for Vocational Education and Training
emphasizes the need to orient vocational education and training toward employment and local
markets.

There is now an urgent need to develop a coherent strategic policy framework for BTVET
especially the post-secondary institutions. The strategic policy framework would need to clearly
specify the respective roles of government and the private sector. For example, under-utilization
of government vocational institutions and the existence of about 450 private sector institutions
providing technical and vocational education and training brings into question the practicality of
building a further 850 polytechnics in the midst of a tight resource envelope for the PPET
sub-sector as a whole. Room may exist for operation of public private partnerships with clear
mandates for parties involved. Questions regarding curriculum development, testing and
certification, and standardization of qualification need to be addressed strategically to ensure
effective regulation and supervision.

Organizational Arrangements. Restructuring of the management of the BTVET still remains
incomplete since the transfer of institutions previously under the health, agriculture and labor
sectors. The wholesale transfer of these institutions to the BTVET Department of MOES did
not take full account of how the institutions would relate in a coherent and practical manner.
This is evident from the unclear demarcation of operational responsibility between the BTVET
and Higher Education departments of MOES. The Directorate of Industrial Training too was
appended to the BTVET department without clarification of how it would relate to the vocational
education and training that has been within the purview of the BTVET department in MOES.

Financing mechanisms. Private sector institutions are funded primarily by charges levied on
the trainees, an apprentice system, and employee training expenditure. In some instances donor
support to private sector institutions has been provided through the provision of equipment and
other capital costs.

Financing mechanisms for government BTVET institutions principally follow the pattern
secondary education and have also in this case, with the government providing for tutor
remuneration and a capitation grant. In year 2000/01, the Government of Uganda spent about
3% of its total education budget on TVET as a whole, Ush.6.5 billion in nominal terms.

Similar to the general secondary education, the BTVET component being a low priority
non-PAF area suffers from unpredictability in resource programming and flows in the medium
term and operationally. Even within government run institutions, a large proportion of recurrent
costs is financed from charges levied on students and trainees. Funding from the government
budget has been irregular with some institutions receiving only 25% of budgeted expenditure.

Further complicating the situation is the fact that the Government had abolished cost-sharing for
government BTVET institutions starting early 2001. As a result, the BTVET institutions
experienced a fall in its total income. The BTVET sub-sector needs to be more innovative in its
financing mechanisms if it were to survive and prosper.



4.5.2 Technical and Farm Schools

The 29 Technical and Farm Schools in Uganda admit students who have just completed primary
school. Generally speaking, Technical and Farm School is a less preferred option for primary
graduates and is mainly for those whose low performance at the PSLE do now allow them to go
to a general “O” level school. Of the 400,000 PLSE passes in 2001, only 3000 applied for
technical/farm schools, and of which 2000 were admitted. The 3000 who applied were the
lowest passes of the 400,000 graduates.

The Unit Cost Study found that average school recurrent expenditure per pupil in technical
schools (Ush623,668) is almost twice that of an average “O” level secondary schools
(Ush328,972). (Table 37). This is mainly due to the inherently higher delivery costs associated
with BTVET and the low student enrollment. An added cost to BTVET provision arises out of
the accommodation and feeding cost that government provides at these institutions, which policy
was abolished in secondary schools in the early 1990s.
                            Table 37: Average Expenditure per student per year
                                   Technical & Farm O-Level                  Technical school as
                                   School             Secondary School % of O-level school
        Personnel Administration
        Costs per pupil                      56,822.6             61482.7                    0.9
        School expenditure on
        supplies per pupil                 442,167.2             144,444.1                   3.1
        Teacher salary costs per
        student                            124,678.9             123.045.3                   1.0
        Total School Recurrent
        Expenditure per pupil              623,668.7              328,972                    1.9

The cost for technical and farm schools are still very likely to be underestimated because,
effective in 2001, the Government abolished cost-sharing policy for BTVET institutions and
hence schools did not receive any income from fees. The Unit Cost data were collected in 2001.
The annual per pupil expenditure at a well run and adequately private technical center for
primary school leavers and S1-S4 dropouts is Ush1.1million, more than three times the average
expenditure per student at an „O‟-level school.

However, the higher school expenditure per pupil at the technical and farm schools does not
seem to be justified in terms of student achievement, as evidenced from the School Quality
Study, which tested students‟ basic competency in Math and English. The results indicate that
students at the Technical and Farm schools are, on average, twice as likely to fail Math and
English tests as students at the „O‟-level schools. In fact, more than two thirds of the Form 1
and Form 3 students in technical and farm schools fail math tests and more than half of technical
students fail English tests. Of course, the poor quality can not be entirely attributed to the
technical schools, as students who are admitted into the technical schools are generally lower
achievers in primary school than those who are admitted into general „O‟- level schools.



                        Table 38: Technical and O-level Secondary Failure Rates
                                            O-level Secondary                  Technical
        Form 1 Mathematics                                    33%                          68%
        Form 3 Mathematics                                    45%                          75%
        Form 1 English                                        20%                          55%
        Form 3 English                                        15%                          64%

International experience during the past 15-20 years generally also indicated that these additional
costs are not warranted, using a cost-effectiveness criterion. The findings of a seminal 1985
study (Psacaropoulos and Loxey, 1985) are generally considered to still prevail. Basically, there
is little empirical evidence that the higher costs result in increased future earnings, a better fit
with market demand, decreased time for job search, or improved outcomes in further study.
These points are reiterated in the 1991 World Bank Policy Paper on Vocational and Technical
Education and Training. “The additional resources used for diversified curricula, are better
invested in improving learning achievements in, or access to, academic secondary education.”
(page 31). This position is further emphasized by the recent World Bank report “Vocational
Skills Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Phase I Synthesis” which concluded that basic
education is one of the most important skills for productivity and economic growth (see Box 4)

                                          Box 4
Findings from Vocational Skills Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Phase I Synthesis

1. Low levels of literacy and general education (a) severely restrict labor market flexibility, (b)
constrain productivity both in the formal and informal sectors, and (c) increase the amount and
cost of training needed by workers and also reduce the effectiveness of that training
2. Even in informal sector training basic education is important. There is a need for improved
literacy and numeracy (“empowering skills”) along with livelihood skills. Those who have
more education do better at entrepreneurship.
3. It is not possible to build an efficient system of skills formation without a solid educational
foundation.
4. General education makes people “trainable” and therefore flexible in the labor market.
5. The most cost-effective use of public resources is to improve the productivity and flexibility of
the labor force through investment in general education at the primary and secondary levels.
(Betcherman)
6. In view of the above, governments should (continue to) give priority to building a sound base
of basic education.

The above analysis shows that technical and vocational education at the PPET level appears to
lack demand from both the parents and employers; it also appears to be a more expensive but
less effective method for delivering basic PPET competencies. And that governments are better
off devoting the limited resources to general secondary education. This conclusion also raises
serious doubts to the government proposal of further vocationalizing general secondary
education by means of Community Polytechnics, comprehensive and vocational schools. These
conclusions tend to lead to the recommendation that the two parallel systems existing in PPET:
O-level and technical schools, need to be integrated into one single system with a curriculum
focus on basic foundational skills and competencies.

4.5.3 Proposed Community Polytechnics and Vocationalization of Secondary Schools
Through Comprehensive and Vocational Schools

The Uganda Government is considering adopting Community Polytechnics as one of its
strategies for secondary expansion. Further it has proposed to vocationalize the general
secondary „O” level through Comprehensive and Vocational Schools.

In fact it proposed to establish one Community Polytechnics in each of its subcounties, a total of
850! The exact wording in the April 2001 “Revised Concept Paper on Community
Polytechnics” was for “multi-skills training centers equitably distributed throughout the country
(i.e. one in every sub-county) in a phased manner”.

The concept of Community Polytechnics is still fluid. The idea is to erect new or convert
existing structures in every sub-county. They will cater mainly for primary graduates who do
not go to secondary schools and for secondary school dropouts. The curriculum will have a
heavy dose of vocational subjects. Focus of training will be based on identified local economic
activities and training needs. While the government will finance the development costs, the
community and households are expected to shoulder most of the costs of running the schools if
not all. Graduates from Community Polytechnics are expected to join the world of work either
individually or as groups but, for those interested, provisions will be worked out for their
academic progression. The Government has not established any community polytechnics yet.

The curriculum for the new Comprehensive and Vocational schools has been proposed during
the Fifth Education Sector Review last April (Table 39). Both comprehensive and vocational
schools are a movement to steadily vocationalize the secondary curriculum. The proposed
comprehensive/vocational curriculum increased the number of subjects for S1-S2 from a
minimum of 14 (Table 39) to 15; for S3-S4 from a minimum of 9 to 10 subjects. Further, in the
new comprehensive schools, the number of vocational subjects to be taught is proposed to
increase from at least 3 to 6 for S1-S2; and from at least 1 to 2. In the new vocational schools,
the number of vocational subjects for S3-S4 will be further increased to 4 subjects.
The Proposed Comprehensive Curriculum
                                                              Number of Subjects
 Category of Subjects   Total No. of Subjects            S1-2                    S3-4
Knowledge Extension               6                      all (6)                 all (6)
Values/Culture                    6             5(IRE/CRE+Hist.+any 3)           any 2
Vocational Subjects               8                  6 (ES+any 5)            2 (ES+any 1)
Total                            22                                  15                     10

The Proposed Vocational Curriculum
                                                                Number of Subjects
 Category of Subjects Total No. of Subjects                 S1-2                   S3-4
Knowledge Extension                 6                      all (6)         5 (Eng+Maths+any 3)
Values/Culture                      6               3(IRE/CRE+any 2)               any 1
Vocational Subjects                 8                  6 (ES+any 5)            4(ES+any 3)
Total                               22                                 15                   10
Note: IRE=Islamic religious Education; CRE=Christian Religious Education;
HIST=History; ES=Entrepreneurship Skills
            Table 39: The Proposed Comprehensive and Vocational Secondary School Curriculum

In Section 4.3.3, we had discussed that the existing curriculum at O-level is already overloaded
and makes learning difficult. More importantly the overloaded curriculum makes the efficient
use of resources such as teachers impossible. The new curriculum for comprehensive and
vocational education proposes to further increase the number of subjects at O-level, and more
important to introduce increased number of vocational subjects. The proposal therefore may
have major implications, unfortunately not positive, on system efficiency, student learning, and
system equity as well.

From the efficiency point of view, we found that technical education at the secondary level
(specifically technical and farm schools) has proven to be at least twice as expensive as a regular
„O‟-level school. The higher unit costs will apply to both Community Polytechnics and
Comprehensive Schools due to the similar curriculum focus on vocational and technical subjects.
There is a clear but implicit tradeoff between average unit costs and number of places. After
careful analysis, the Government may decide that it is willing to incur these costs, but the
tradeoff of fewer places must be made explicit and enter into the policy dialogue.

From the student learning point of view, there is evidence that students in technical schools are
not mastering the basic competencies that are valued by the employers in the formal sector.
More than two-thirds of the students in technical schools fail basic competency tests in Math and
English. A heavier dose of practical subjects will mean a reduction in teaching and learning in
Math and English and will further erode their competitiveness in the labor market.

With regard to Community Polytechnics, the relationship between the community polytechnics
and the formal institutional and qualifications structure has not bee defined clearly. Most
importantly, the idea that Community Polytechnics will be mainly financed by community
contributions further raises the issue of equity. Most of target population, namely the P7 leavers
and S1-S4 dropouts will be from the poorest section of the population. Not providing any
subsidy to these schools will further worsen the already very inequitable system of public
financing.

Finally, from the supply side, there is a substantial and growing private sector training capacity.
It is estimated that 400 firms currently have in-house training programs and prefer to do their
own training. In summary, there is reason for concern about the viability of the proposed
Community Polytechnic model as a central component of the BTVET strategy. At most, the
idea of Community Polytechnics and comprehensive schools can be piloted in relatively well off
districts with reasonable demand for such a school.

4.6. Private Provision of Post-primary Education and Training

4.6.1 Size of the Private Sector in PPET

Private provision is rather substantial in PPET. There are three types of secondary school
ownership: government, private, and community. However, the distinction between private and
community school is not always clear, except that community schools may have a better chance
of being converted into government schools. Since neither private nor community schools
receive any subsidy from the government, strictly both categories of schools are private schools.
A total of 579 private schools and 811 community schools were included in the 2000 school
census . Total private and community enrollment amounts to almost 300,000 students, about
57% of total secondary enrollment, though private enrollment is only 23% of total enrollment if
we only include private “private” schools. This proportion of private enrollment is extremely
high compared to the same statistics from other countries. UNESCO data contained in the
World Education Report 2000 indicate that in 1996 at the general secondary level, South
America has 26% of enrollment in private schools compared to 22% for Africa, 15% for Asia
and 12% for Europe. There is also indication that the proportion of secondary enrollment in
private schools has decreased since 1990 in most countries.

Thus, there may be little or no scope for further increasing the proportion of private enrollment
in Uganda. The ESIP target of increasing the proportion of private enrollment to 68% by 2010
may be very unrealistic.




                   Table 40: Percent of Private Enrollment in General Secondary Schools
                                                   1990                        1996
            Africa                                 24%                         22%
            North America                          26%                         18%
              South America                                    27%                               26%
              Asia                                             20%                               15%
              Europe                                           13%                               12%

              Uganda                                                                        57% (2000)

On average, there were 27.8 private secondary schools per district; however, there is substantial
variation in between districts with the number ranging from zero (Kalangala and Kotido) to 145
(Mpigi). The majority of schools are in rural locations (53.8 percent), The overwhelming
majority (86.5 percent) are in either rural or peri-urban areas. This, in part, reflects the
demographics of Uganda. It does, however, indicate that though there are a few religiously
founded elite private schools, the majority of the private schools is more an alternative for the
rural and poor.


                     Table 41 : Percent Enrollment in Private Secondary Schools by District - 2000

          District   % Private      District % Private    District % Private     District % Private     District % Private
       Kalangala       0.0%      Kabarole      8.9%      Luwero     17.6%      Mukono      27.1%      Masindi     36.5%
       Kotido          0.0%      Kabale       10.0%      Adjumani 18.0%        Mbarara     27.1%      Bundibugyo 39.3%
       Moroto          0.0%      Rukungiri    10.1%      Soroti     18.6%      Sembabule 29.8%        Busia       40.2%
       Moyo            0.0%      Bugiri       11.4%      Kasese     18.6%      Kibaale     30.2%      Hoima       40.4%
       Apac            0.7%      Arua         11.9%      Mbale      19.8%      Kitgum      30.4%      Mpigi       42.2%
       Kumi            2.5%      Nakasongola 12.5%       Gulu       21.3%      Kamuli      31.2%
       Nebbi           3.8%      Pallisa      12.7%      Bushenyi 22.4%        Tororo      31.3%
       Kapchorwa       3.9%      Rakai        13.6%      Mubende 22.8%         Kampala     33.2%      National     23.4%
       Lira            8.4%      Masaka       15.3%      Iganga     24.4%      Ntungamo    34.2%
       Kisoro          8.9%      Katakwi      17.1%      Jinja      24.7%      Kiboga      34.6%

             Source: Educational Statistical Abstract 2000, Ministry of Education and Sports, Uganda

 4.6.2 Registration and Licensing of Private Schools

There are statutory regulations for the licensing and registration of private schools, which are set
out in Sections 22 to 36 of the 1970 Education Act. The procedures for licensing private schools
and institutions are set out in guidance notes provided by the inspectorate (now the ESA).
Registration procedures tend to be slow and arduous. The actual requirements include land title;
tenants agreement; bank statement and proof of financing; original proprietor‟s bio-data;
headmaster‟s bio-data; site and building plan, copy of the terms of contract for teachers and
signed contracts; detailed district school inspector‟s report, three references and a Health
Inspector‟s report.

Registering a private school is a 2-stage process. There is an initial one-year‟s license followed
by a permanent registration. The proposed private school is subject to initial inspection by the
District Inspectors of Schools and the District Health Inspectors, with a second education
inspection at the end of the license year. In cases of doubt, there may be an additional inspection
by the central inspectorate.

The MOES is currently opting for a less rigorous licensing and registration policy as an
encouragement to the development of private secondary education. However, the relaxed
regulations may result in a lack of genuine quality and operational control. The MOES‟
Education Standard Agency is currently intending to concentrate licensing and registration
activity for private schools to the period June to December each year for new school openings in
January of the following year in an attempt to prevent new school openings in mid-year

The licensing and registering of „private‟ schools are currently free of charge. There is no
mechanism for the receipt of fees by the MOES. However, the Ministry is planning to start
collecting nominal fees through the ESA. In fact, it is expected that the operational costs of
ESA may be financed by the fees.

4.6.3 Private Provision and Coverage

Growth in the provision of private education in Uganda seems to be mainly driven by the unmet
societal demand for PPET places. Private secondary schools in Uganda can be further
categorized into two types: a small proportion of elite private schools which offer high quality
education and cater for children from wealthy families and a majority of low quality private
schools located in rural areas which are catering for the needs of the relatively poor and
disadvantaged students who are not able or afford the more expensive government schools.

Using the district as the unit of analysis, there is a positive correlation between the percentage of
students enrolled in private schools and net and gross enrollment ratios as shown in Table 42.
Interestingly, the relationship is statistically significant for female, but not male, enrolment.
However, the observed correlation must be treated with some caution, as the “direction of
causation” is not unambiguous. Does increased private provision, in and of itself, increase
access (especially for girls) or do private providers “respond” to unmet demand in certain
districts? This is an area that does warrant further exploration. It is clear that a higher
percentage of age-eligible girls are likely to be in secondary school in those districts where a
larger share of places is provided by private institutions.




                           Table 42 : Correlation of Private Provision and NER
   Correlations      N = 46                          Pct Priv Enroll
   NER Male          Pearson Correlation                  0.276
                     Sig. (2-tailed)                      0.064
   NER Female        Pearson Correlation                  0.347
                     Sig. (2-tailed)   *                  0.018
   NER Total         Pearson Correlation                  0.331
                     Sig. (2-tailed)   *                  0.025
   GER Male          Pearson Correlation                  0.252
                     Sig. (2-tailed)                      0.091
   GER Female        Pearson Correlation                  0.346
                     Sig. (2-tailed)   *                  0.019
   *   Significant at the .05 level




                                       Source: Educational Statistical Abstract 2000, Ministry
                                                 of Education and Sports, Uganda

The Government‟s policy explicitly include “relaxing current controls, restraints and quality
assurance checks on private education in order to encourage the rapid growth of private
secondary schools” . In fact, the ESIP targets of reaching the gross secondary enrollment of
58% by 2010 assume that 68% of the enrollment will be provided by the private sector. We
discussed earlier that this target seems rather unrealistic. Even if the 68% of private enrollment
were to be achieved, there will be negative implication on the system equity, since the private
sector seems to be mainly catering for the poor and disadvantaged students who are not able to
afford the more expensive government schools and hence do not benefit from any government
subsidies, if government subsidy is not extended to the private schools. Yet, given the current
resource constraints, Government is in no position to provide financial assistance to private
schools in a large scale in the short or even medium term. The reform of financing public
school is of higher priority at this stage.

4.6.4 Private Provision and Unit Costs

A general argument in favor of private provision is that entrepreneurs will have both opportunity
and incentive to identify and use more cost-effective combinations of inputs to increase
efficiency. Analysis of the Unit Cost Study suggests that private PPET providers have lower
unit cost than their government counterparts and that they are using a fundamentally different
production function in which capital is substituted for labor.

Annual salary costs per pupil (reported by the schools) are reported to be less than 40 percent of
those in public schools. This implies either higher pupil:teacher ratios, lower average
remuneration, or a combination of the two, as shown in Table 43. Interesting, private schools
appear to spend less than half per pupil on supplies. This may be an artifact of the construction
of this variable. One major difference between private and public schools appear to be
expenditure on assets. Private schools were reported to spend more than twice as much, per
pupil, on assets accumulation during the survey year, than their public counterparts. This
suggests a production function in which capital is being substituted for labor.


                          Table 43: Unit Costs per Pupil in Public and Private PPET



                Cost Category                     Public    Private Priv as % Pub
1     Teacher Salary Costs pppa                  199,705.3 76,192.9         38.2%
2     Personnel Administration                    57,852.6 31,541.1         54.5%
    Teacher Salary + Admin                       257,557.9 107,734.0        41.8%

3 Supplies                                       418,832.0 186,976.5                  44.6%

    Recurrent - Salaries + Supplies (1,2+3)      676,389.9 294,710.5                  43.6%


4 Assets acquired during year 2000                49,517.4 110,989.5             224.1%

                 Source: Analysis of IDC and F. Mungereza & Co., 2001, Table 4, rows 13&14

The differences in the implicit production function are shown graphically in Figure 19. Public
expenditure (upper panel) provides a substantially smaller share of its total on new assets.
Figure 19: Distribution of Expenditure - Public and Private

                           Private




 New Assets                             Salaries
    27%                                  27%




                       Supplies
                        46%




                           Public




              New Assets
                 7%
                                           Salaries
                                            35%




   Supplies
    58%
Overall, the total annual costs (salary, supplies, and asset accrual during the current year) result
in a substantially lower total unit cost in the private schools on average, as shown in Table 43.
If this sample is representative of the national situation and the Quality Studies indicates that
performance is comparable, the study suggests that private providers are able to provide PPET
services at about half the cost (56 percent) of public institutions. In large part, this appears to be
due to a substitution of capital for labor.

However, the lower unit cost in private schools does not necessarily mean higher efficiency.
As discussed in the Section 4.2.6, despite a few private religious schools whose average
performance in mathematics and English tests are comparable to government schools, the
majority of private schools were established by individuals and communities and offer low
quality education. Students in private/community schools generally do worse than those in
public schools or in private/religious schools in basic competency tests of English and
Mathematics. Almost 60% of private/community students in Form 1 failed the math test as
compared to 35% in Government Schools and 36% in private religious schools; 77% of Form 3
private/community students failed Math as compared to 43% in government schools and 45% in
religious private schools. The difference is less drastic in English performance: 38% of
private/community Form 1 students failed English compared to 27% in public schools and 18%
in religious private schools; 32% of private/community Form 3 students failed English compared
to 29% in government schools and 17% in religious private schools. There findings confirm the
earlier finding that in Uganda, private school (majority of them are private community schools
offering low quality education) is more an alternative for the poor, rather than for the rich.

                   Table 44: Math and English Failure Rates in Government and Private Schools
                           Form 1 Math        Form 3 Math           Form 1 English       Form 3 English
   Government                          35%                    43%                 27%                 29%
   Private – religious                 36%                    45%                 18%                 17%
   Private - community                 59%                    77%                 38%                 32%
4.7. Cost Effectiveness of Various PPET Institutions.

4.7.1 Variation of School Expenditure Per Pupil by Type of School

The Unit Cost Study revealed great variation in school expenditure per pupil. Table 45 lists the
expenditure information by category and by school type. Notice that the national average
school-level expenditure per pupil is about Ush490,236, which is very similar to the direct unit
cost (Ush. 478,000) estimate derived from adding the public expenditure per pupil
(Ush.236,994) and the private direct cost (Ush.241,000).

                            Table 45: Breakdown of Use-Attributable Cost per Pupil
Type of School                        Personnel      School          Teacher         Total School
                                      Administrati   Expenditure     Salary Costs    Recurrent
                                      on Costs per   Cost per        per Student     Expenditure
                                      Pupil          Pupil on                        Per Student
                                                     Supplies B1)

O-Level                                  61,482.70      144,444.10      123,045.30      328,972.10
A-Level                                  40,721.60      414,781.50      193,124.00      648,627.10
Technical/Farm School                    56,822.60      442,167.20      124,678.90      623,668.70
Rural                                    60,887.60      322,570.00      166,920.80      550,378.40
Urban                                    43,304.80      380,812.20      159,398.90      583,515.90
Peri-Urban                               40,339.50      328,054.40      153,989.70      522,383.60
Day                                      49,356.20      196,320.10      112,787.00      358,463.30
Boarding                                 53,623.90      561,044.40      231,076.10      845,744.40
Both Day & Boarding                      46,316.50      287,956.50      141,542.80      475,815.80
Boys                                     63,300.70      594,408.60      177,755.40      835,464.70
Girls                                    56,554.20      534,171.60      263,457.60      854,183.40
Mixed                                    45,895.50      261,870.10      134,506.00      442,271.60
Public                                   57,852.60      418,832.00      199,705.30      676,389.90
Private                                  31,541.10      186,976.50       76,192.90      294,710.50
National Average (95% trimmed mean)      42,136.00      299,456.00      135,278.00      490,236.00



As indicated in the Table 45 above, „A‟-level and Technical schools are twice as expensive as
„O‟-level schools in terms of recurrent expenditures. School expenditures per pupil on
administrative staff are fairly similar across these three types of schools. The disparity is mainly
driven by expenditures per pupil on school supplies. „A‟- level and Technical schools spend
almost twice as much on school supplies as do „O‟-level schools. The school supplies include
everything except wages and capital costs, including dormitory costs. The high dormitory
costs seem to have driven up the school supplies expenditures (dormitory costs included in the
school supply). „A‟–level schools also spend about Ush.70,000 per pupil more on teachers
compared to either „O‟-level or Technical schools. This is consistent with findings from the
Teacher Utilization Study that teachers teach fewer periods at the „A‟-level compared to those at
the „O‟-level (implying a lower pupil:teacher ratio) and also that there is a higher proportion of
graduate teachers at the „A‟-level schools who are better paid than others.

As expected, school expenditure per pupil also varies greatly among day, boarding, and mixed
schools. Total recurrent expenditure at boarding schools (Ush845,744) is 2.4 times higher than
an average day school (Ush. 358,463). The expenditure for an average mixed school (Ush.
475,815) lies between the pure day and boarding schools. Again, the disparity is driven by both
school supply (boarding costs) and teachers. Boarding schools spend 2.8 times more per student
on school supply (major category being boarding costs) as compared to a day schools. Further,
boarding schools spend more than twice per student on teachers than a day school, due to the
lower pupil:teacher ratio and higher proportion of graduate teachers in boarding schools.

It is also interesting to note that “boys” and “girls” school have an average school expenditure
per pupil of more than Ush800,000, which is similar to that of the boarding schools and twice as
much as the expenditure in a mixed school. We know that most of the single-sex schools are
boarding schools, whereas the mixed schools tend to be day schools. Therefore this is another
angle to illustrate the high costs of boarding schools due to boarding facilities and teacher costs.

The School Quality Study found that students (Form 1 and Form 3) in boarding schools do
significantly better than those in day and mixed schools. The magnitude of difference is
striking. For example, 17.6% of Form 1 Boarding students failed the mathematics test
compared to 43% in day schools and 57.5% in mixed schools. In fact, secondary students in
day and mixed schools seem to have very low achievement in mathematics and English. About
one-half of the students fail mathematics test and more than on-third fail English tests. Note
that these tests are not meant for selection or certification and that they are developed to assess
the basic competencies. The high failure rates in these tests highlight the grave challenges
facing the Uganda post-primary education system.




                                Table 46: Failure Rates by School Type
                      Form            1 Form                3 Form 1              Form 3
                      Mathematics         Mathematics           English            English
   Day                            43.3%                  70%               37%               37.7%
   Boarding                       17.6%                  24%              18.3%              10.6%
   Mixed                          57.5%                  64%              39.8%              35.5%

   Girls                            26%                 28%               10.2%               1.4%
   Boys                            4.5%                  9%               16.7%              14.5%
   Mixed                            47%                 61%                36%               26.1%

Since we know government provides for teacher salary and capitation grant, the extra costs
associated with boarding are borne almost entirely by the families through boarding and other fee
payment. Hence most of the children in boarding elite secondary schools are from relatively
wealthier families than those at day schools. The concentration of better qualified “graduate”
teachers in those schools is a major source of inequity in the system.

4.7.2 Variation of School Expenditure Per Pupil by School Size

There is a longstanding concern that enrolments are too low at many secondary schools in
Uganda to allow economies of scale to be reaped. Government-aided schools in urban areas
have, on average, twice as many students and teachers than do rural schools. The average
enrolment for private and community schools was 200 in 2000 compared to 465 in government
schools. Full boarding schools tend to have much larger enrolments than day and partially
boarding schools.

The Unit Cost Study found that there seems to be an optimal school size of between 500 and 750
students, taking into account per student expenditure and manageability.

Seventy percent of private rural schools have less than 250 students. The corresponding figures
for private peri-urban and urban schools are 53% and 44%,respectively.                    While
government-aided schools tend to be much larger in urban areas, only one-fifth have more than
1,000 students. Sixth forms, which are relatively resource-intensive, are also relatively small.
This is particularly the case for day and partly boarding schools in rural and peri-urban areas.
In the late 1990s, each TSS and TVIs had an average of 250 students. In short, there seems to
be considerable room for increasing the size of secondary schools with small enrollment.

However, caution needs to be exercised while attempting to increase secondary school size.
Special consideration needs to be given to areas where sparsely populated. This is particularly
relevant if the Uganda Government decides to provide the “O” level education or at least 2 to 3
years of “O” level education for free, as part of the basic education movement, in which case
basic education becomes a right in itself.
            5. PPET ENROLLMENT AND TRANSITION RATES PROJECTIONS

PPET Enrollment Projection

Based on current primary enrollment, repetition, and dropout rates, Figure 20 indicates how
many pupils are likely to reach P7 and how many will pass the PLE assuming the pass rates
remain at present levels. These PLE graduates constitute the cohort seeking access to S1. Their
numbers peak in 2005 (650,000) and 2009 (825,000) and then decline as the effects of the
introduction of UPE work their way through.


                                       Primary Enrolment in P7 and PLE
                                                   Passes

 1200000




 1000000




  800000




                                                                                                 Enrolment P7
  600000
                                                                                                 PLE Passes



  400000




  200000




       0
           2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008    2009   2010   2011   2012


                                                     Figure 20:

In 2002, about 102,000 PLE holders were selected for entry to S1 in government schools and
another 131,000 in private schools (reaching an overall transition rate of about 50%).
This report contends that places in government schools will grow at a rate determined by the size
of the public budget and the public unit costs of provision. An initial rate of growth in both
private and public secondary places of 7.5% is used, falling to 5% after five years. Higher rates
of growth are unlikely to be sustained as costs are high relative to household incomes, and there
are already signs that growth is slowing. It seems probable that secondary school fee rates in
both government and private schools are approaching the limit of affordability for the marginal
households.

In this context, secondary school enrolments are likely to grow along the lines shown in Figure
21. This indicates that government schools could see their enrolments increase from about
375,000 to over 600,000 and private schools might grow from perhaps 420,000 to over 900,000
over the projection period. Total secondary enrollment will reach about 1.5 million.
Technical/farm schools and technical institutes would enrol less than 20,000 by 2012. Even this
is optimistic given the current pattern of preference for such schools. 3,400 candidates applied
for technical/farm school in 2002 and less than 2000 were accepted on the basis of the lowest
grade of PLE pass. This is less than 1% of P7 enrolment. Enrolment patterns in secondary
schooling are assumed to remain static in terms of repetition and drop out.

                           Figure 21: Total Enrolment Government and Private


                                       Total Enrolment Government and Private

 1000000


  900000


  800000


  700000


  600000

                                                                                                     Govt
  500000                                                                                             Private
                                                                                                     Enrol TI and TS

  400000


  300000


  200000


  100000


      0
           2001   2002   2003   2004     2005   2006    2007    2008    2009    2010   2011   2012




On this basis, the transition rates from P7 to S1 will decline initially as the growth of S1
enrollment declines relative to the growth of P7 graduates. However, the transition rate will
then recover to about 50% over a ten-year projection period. This is illustrated in Figure 22.
                                 Nominal Transition Rate P7-S1

60




50




40



                                                                                             Govt
30                                                                                           Private
                                                                                             Overall



20




10




0
     2002   2003   2004   2005   2006      2007     2008         2009   2010   2011   2012


                            Figure 22: Nominal Transition Rates
                   6. CONCLUSIONS AND BROAD POLICY OPTIONS

As demonstrated in the previous chapters, the reform measures being introduced in the primary
sub-sector and their resulting achievement, unfortunately have not yet been extended to
secondary education. The PPET sub-sector remains a low priority subsector as evidenced by the
relatively low budgetary allocation. Significant challenges still face the Uganda post-primary
education system. Major challenges discussed in the report include:

   2 Low coverage and extreme inequity. Coverage at the secondary level is very low: GER
     for S1-S4 (the main focus of PPET) is 35%; overall GER for S1-S6 is only 19%.
     Therefore at least two thirds of the age group population are without access to PPET and
     overall about 80% of the population have no access to secondary education. In addition,
     inequity in the Ugandan secondary system is much more widespread than at the primary
     level, with the richest 20% of the households occupying 63% of total secondary spaces.
   3 Gender disparity. There is a gender disparity in secondary coverage. Only 41% of
     secondary enrollment are females. Female enrollment ratios fall below those for males
     especially after age 17. Gender disparity is worst in the Northern Region perhaps due to
     social norms. Girls do significantly worse in mathematics than do boys nationwide, but
     their performance in English was similar. The gender disparity needs to be addressed as
     a priority given the Millennium Development Goals to which the Uganda Government
     has committed itself.
   4 Low internal efficiency. The PPET system overall has low repetition but fairly
     significant dropout rates. Dropouts rates tend to be higher in rural and non-government
     schools. And bottleneck occurs at the transition from primary to secondary (between
     40-50% including both public and private) and from Ordinary level to A-level (26%).
     However, given the projected increase in the primary graduates, the transition rate will
     fall if no action is taken to expand and improve the PPET system.
   5 Very Poor student achievement especially in Math, English, and Sciences. A recent
     School Quality Study found that nationwide, 40% of Form 1 students and half of Form 3
     students failed math tests. Results of the English tests are only slightly better:
     one-quarter of students fail English tests. These tests were specifically designed to test
     the basic concepts and skills in Math and English and can be seen as tests of minimum
     requirements. Such high failure rates indicate that a substantial proportion of secondary
     students are coming away without the skills and competencies they need.

The Report also identified main reasons for the poor performance. These include not only a low
priority status accorded to the PPET sector, the quality and quantity of primary graduates, but
more relevantly the low efficiency in spending the public resources and highly inequitable
financing mechanism.

The low Pupil:teacher ratio at the PPET institutions and overloaded curriculum which requires
many specialized teachers are mainly to blame for the high cost of PPET. The current public
financing also tends to subsidize children from wealthier families disproportionately more.
Hence it is almost impossible for the system to expand within a reasonable budgetary allocation.
It is very clear that if performance in terms of coverage, equity, and quality is to improve, unit
cost of PPET will have to drop.
With the UPE wave coming through the system and at the same time the economy grows to
require more skilled labor educated at the secondary level, the Government of Uganda can not
afford not addressing the above challenges. The impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic has made it
more difficult for the government to address these challenges within a reasonable budget. This
report argue that the only possible way for the Government to meet these challenges within a
sustainable budget is through increasing the system efficiency and improving the equity of public
financing. Without reducing the relative unit cost of secondary education, it will be difficult to
improve the system coverage, equity, efficiency and quality. To strengthen this argument, the
following Box illustrates the Zimbabwe experience in expanding secondary education soon after
its independence.

                                           Box 5:
                   Expanding Secondary Education: The Zimbabwe Experience
Several factors enabled Zimbabwe to expand its secondary schooling quickly after independence. The
main factor appears to have been a high level of commitment to public resources. As much of 8 percent of
GNP and 17 percent of public expenditure were allocated to the education budget as a whole. The second
factor is that the public costs per student at secondary appear to average about twice those at primary,
which is low by sub-Saharan African standards … Part of the reason for the relatively low costs is the
extent to which the public financing of secondary schools is supported by fees and other contributions …
Automatic promotion at primary has reduced repetition rates to low levels [and] double shifting has also
made a contribution to increased capacity and has made savings in capital costs (Lewin and Calloids
2001, p. 344)

Unfortunately the Government‟s current proposal of expanding PPET through Community
Polytechnics and vocationalization of secondary education through comprehensive and
vocational Schools appears to be a move toward opposite direction. Not only will the CP imply
higher unit cost than a regular day O-level school, the concepts of CP and vocationalization of
secondary schools also have implication (negative) in the system equity and quality. The CP
and vocationalization will not improve gender equity as a much higher proportion of students in
technical schools tend to be boys. It is also not fair to require the poorest section of the
population pay for such education entirely out of their own pocket without the benefit of
government subsidy.
Further there is evidence that technical and vocational students are not mastering the basic
competencies that are most valued by employers in the formal sector (over two thirds of
technical students fail the math and English tests) and a heavier dose of vocational subjects will
further reduce the teaching and learning in core subjects. Additionally, there appears to be a
lack of demand for such education from both the parents and employers.

It is paramount that the Ministry should, through a consultative process, develop an Policy
Framework and Strategies for the PPET sector, with goals that are realistic and clearly laid out.
There is also a need for targets and indicators in coverage, quality and efficiency over the next 10
years. The Strategic Plan should also lay out the means or strategies for reaching those goals.
These proposed broad options are suggestions that can be evaluated with respect to anticipated
cost and incorporated into such a Strategic Plan. To the extent possible, the PPET sub-sector
should emulate the primary sector and use Medium Term Budget Framework to prioritize
activities and adopt the semi-annual Education Sector Review as a major monitoring tool.
At the same time, there is an urgent need for a quick decision on key issues such as Community
Polytechnics and increasing the efficiency of the current system. The Government is already
committing itself to plans it cannot afford: the current budget plan included the Community
Polytechnics; there has also been pressure to hire additional number of secondary teachers.
These key issues need to be resolved as a matter of emergency.
                                7. BROAD POLICY OPTIONS

The report offers ten broad policy recommendations for the Ministry to consider incorporating in
such a Strategic Plan. The options are not meant to be prescriptive, but are rather a selected menu
of possible strategies for meeting the challenges discussed in the report. Policy options are
clustered into the following three areas: (a) short-term focus on increasing the efficiency of the
use of current resources as a major means for expansion and quality improvement; (b) medium
term focus on more equitable distribution of public financing, and the reduction of cost burden
especially on poor and other disadvantaged households as major strategies for improving equity,
coverage, and quality; and (c) long term focus on structural and curriculum reforms for
improving the quality and relevance. The options are further presented in a policy matrix
below.

These options need to be placed in the context of continued emphasis to improve the quality of
education, reduce the age of first enrollment and to achieve greater internal efficiency at the
primary level. There is a tendency that such critical linkage between primary and secondary
may be ignored by policy makers. Quality improvement measures at primary level are central
to the improvement of coverage, equity, and quality of secondary education.

They also need to be placed in a context of continued effort for improving school-level
management. Much of the innovation in teaching and learning and in maneuvering the
resources happens at the school level. The Study of the Provision of Instructional Materials
discovered that many headmasters, on their own, are scheduling their classes in such a way so
that every student can have access to a textbook during the class session. Such energy at the
school level should be harnessed. However, the capacity of school-level management needs to
be further strengthened through capacity building and other motivational incentives.

Further, in discussing the proposed broad policy options, it is important to bear in mind that large
differences exist between regions, districts, and even within districts. The broad policy options
will have to be tailored to the particularities of the local context.

A. Short-term Focus on Increasing the Efficiency of the Current System as A Major Means
for Expansion and Quality Improvement (within the next 5 years). The short-term
measures are ways of improving the secondary coverage without requiring significant changes in
resource allocation pattern. It has to be emphasized that the proposed reform measures, though,
may result in efficiency gains if implemented successfully, it may require extra-funding during
the transition period. This is where the EFAG may come in to assistance, based on sound and
agreed policy decisions.

1. Requiring all secondary teachers to teach at least two subjects. About 45% of secondary
teachers teach only one subject area, even though all teachers have been trained to teach two
subjects. Without increasing the number of subjects teacher teach, it will be almost impossible
to increase the overall pupil:teacher ratio without altering the curriculum. And yet revising the
curriculum, though may be ultimately desired, is more a medium to long term undertaking rather
than a short term one. Since teachers have already been trained to teach two subjects, the
implementation of such a policy may be relatively easy.
2. Increasing pupil:teacher ratio. This is a core strategy for improving the efficiency of the
system. Increasing the overall pupil:teacher ratio from the current level of 17 to 30 will, for
example, increase the enrollment by more than 150% without having to incur additional costs.
The increase of PTR does not mean drastic measures such as firing teachers, instead it can be
achieved by reducing the hiring rate and restricting the hiring only to teachers of subjects in
demand such as math, English, and sciences. However, the burden of such increase should not
fall on the more crowded schools. And the process has to be closely linked to the rationalization
of curriculum and teacher workloads and attention to deployment.

3. Distinguishing the secondary (O-level) versus post-secondary (post O-level) institutions both
conceptually and administratively

    3 Create an integrated secondary school system to include general O-level and secondary
      technical and farm schools under a single system of administration, governance, finance,
      and curriculum focus.
          o As discussed earlier, technical and vocational education at the „O‟-level is
             expensive, not effective in transmitting basic competencies as compared to
             general secondary, and are generally not a preferred option for families. The
             Government should entertain the idea of converting these schools into regular
             „O‟-level day secondary schools.
          o This also means that the Government will not engage in massive construction of
             community polytechnics. At most, the Community Polytechnics should only be
             piloted in selected districts with a cheaper version of design which can be easily
             converted into regular day O-level secondary school in the future

    4 Re-organise post secondary BTVET institutions into a single system of Further
      Education institutions of viable size and invest in improving quality and efficiency
      through either larger multi faculty colleges or larger single field of study institutions. A
      strategic review is needed of post school provision to re-energise, rationalise, and
      increase value for money in this sector. There is scope to adopt more demand led
      approaches to enrolment planning and institutional development, provide incentives and
      flexibility to allow Colleges to increase participation using cost recovery, and generate a
      dynamic, post school, occupationally and professionally orientated education and
      training system.

B. Medium Term Focus on More Equitable Distribution of Public Financing as A Major
Strategy for Improving the Coverage, Equity and Quality of PPET (within the next 5-10
years)

1. Broaden the concept and forms of Capitation Grant to schools:

   3 Capitation Grant for Non-wage Expenses. To protect the expenditure on essential
     teaching and learning materials and equipment, it seems necessary to revise the existing
     capitation grant so that it can only be used for non-wage and non-boarding expenditures,
     as the current practice is to use the capitation grant to subsidize teacher salary or to hire
       additional private teachers. Variations of the formula can be further introduced to
       address the inequity in public financing. For example:
          o To further improve the equity of public financing, it is possible to build into the
              capitation grant formula so that schools serving predominantly poor students have
              a higher allocation on a per capita basis.
          o More radically the Government may stop paying capitation grants to elite
              boarding schools serving predominantly wealthy families (one important
              indication is the high level of fees charged).
          o Or the Government could still provide such capitation grant to the elite boarding
              schools, but based on enrollment of the poor and day students in those schools.
          o The Government could entertain the idea of further supporting the private sector
              by proving the same grant to private schools. There is no reason why such a grant
              should not be provided to private and community schools. Of course, given the
              current resource constraints, the Government will not be in a position to provide
              such support immediately. The priority still lies in the reform of public financing
              to public schools.

   4 Formula-based Teacher Salary Grant. Much of the variation in per student expenditure
     lies in the proportion of Graduate Teachers teaching in the school. This variation is also
     the major source of inequity of public financing, as rich students tend to go to schools
     which are better endowed with such teachers. To correct the situation, the Ministry may
     entertain the idea of providing a formula-based capitation grant to school, earmarked for
     teacher salary only. The schools will be in a position to decide how to use this grant and
     determine the number of teachers, proportion of graduate teachers to be hired, and how
     much to pay the teachers. The value of the grant will be determined by the Ministry of
     Education so that it is sufficient to cover a certain number of teachers. This option is not
     as drastic as it sounds, as secondary schools de facto already have a large degree of
     freedom in hiring of teachers and in reallocating their resources. Such a grant can also
     be extended to private and community schools in the future. However, there may be
     resistance from Teachers‟ Union as the strategy implies a change in teacher contractual
     terms. Also attention needs to be paid so that teachers are not exploited by the system.

2. Increase average secondary school size to reap economies of scale and gradually reduce the
number of schools with enrollment less than 250. There is a longstanding concern that
enrolments are too low at many secondary schools in Uganda to allow economies of scale to be
reaped. The Unit Cost Study found that there seems to be an optimal school size of between
500 and 750 students taking into account per student expenditure and manageability. Seventy
percent of private rural schools have less than 250 students. The corresponding figures for
private peri-urban and urban private schools are 53% and 44% respectively. About 23% of the
government schools in rural areas have enrollment smaller than 250; the corresponding figures
for government peri-urban and urban schools are 6% and 7%. Special consideration has to be
given to sparsely populated areas where secondary schools have a small catchment areas. This
is particularly true if the Uganda Government decides to provide the “O” level education or at
least 2 to 3 years of “O” level education for free, as part of the basic education movement, in
which case basic education becomes a right in itself.
3. Expand the existing scholarship scheme to cover more needy students including
AIDS-orphans. The PPET system faces the challenges of not only efficiency, access, and
quality, but also equity. The equity can not be expected to improve by itself without explicit
intervention from the Government. Bursary scheme remains an effective strategy. An
important policy implication of the analysis is that the bursaries should be targeted at the poor
and other disadvantaged students. It is not clear, though, to what extent is the current bursary
scheme benefiting students with real needs. Expansion the bursary scheme should therefore be
preceded by careful study of the current scheme. It is conceivable that bursaries can be targeted
to schools which meet certain performance criteria and which charge fees below certain level (as
the rich perhaps will not be opting such cheap schools). Or bursaries can also be used for day
students attending boarding schools. And special provision should also be made to orphans
including AIDS-orphans.

C. Long Term Focus on Structure, Curriculum, and Teacher Reform to Improve the
Quality and Relevance of PPET education

1. Structure and Curriculum Reform. In the long term, Uganda needs to examine critically its
structure and curriculum focus for PPET, in the context of cultural, social, and economic
development and in the context of regional and international integration. It needs to ask what
core competencies and skills are expected of a secondary graduate and then determine the
structure of the education system, the teaching method, and curriculum which will all be geared
toward delivering such outputs. Relatedly, the country also needs to decide whether it will
adopt a basic education cycle which will cover primary and selected years of lower secondary
education with a curriculum focus on literacy, numeracy, and problem solving skills; and
enriched curriculum for higher secondary education with more focus on science and technology.

2. Reform Teacher Education and Teacher Incentive. Both pre-service and in-service of
teachers need to be reviewed. Very little is known currently in what happens at the teacher
training colleges, however, there is some evidence that teacher education would benefit from
improved efficiency and relevance at the colleges. Teaching and learning at the colleges tend to
be mostly content driven, with insufficient attention to developing teacher professional skills and
attitudes, and heavily teacher-centered. Reduce salary differentials between graduates and non
graduates doing the same jobs and link bonuses to workloads to improve productivity and
performance.

3. Reform secondary examination and assessment system. The secondary teaching and
learning in Uganda is heavily influenced by the examinations upon graduating from primary
level, Uganda Certificate of Education, and at the end of “O” level, Uganda Advanced
Certificate of Education. Both examinations are designed mainly for the purposes of selecting
students onto the next level. In some sense, it is inevitable that teachers and students will teach
and learn to the examinations if spaces in PPET are limited. With the gradual expansion in
coverage, it may be possible to introduce other forms of assessment such as continuous
assessment or national assessment of student aptitudes, which will provide more valuable
insights into the teaching and learning process in the classrooms and help inform the curriculum
review.
4. Increase the Resource Allocation for PPET

   3 Intra-sectoral shifts. At present, 65 percent of the education budget is earmarked for
     primary education. In fact, the Government is committed to guaranteeing 65% of its
     education budget to primary education in the next few years. It is conceivable that after
     a few years when the primary situation is more stabilized and most of the over age
     students will have been absorbed into the system, primary budget may not need to
     consume 65%. Further, though reforms in the higher education may result in higher
     public finance in the short term, if implemented well, they may result in higher education
     institutions to be autonomous and hence do not require a large share of the Ministry‟s
     budget in the long term. This is going to be a national decision.
   4 Inter-sectoral shifts. If PPET were to become a high priority area, there may be a
     possible further commitment of funds from some other sector to the education sector.
     This is clearly a decision that must be made at the national level, with consultation and
     concurrence by the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet. The share of the budget currently
     going to education in Uganda is extremely high already by international standards.

THE PROJECTED COST OF ADOPTING SHORT-TERM EFFICIENCY MEASURES

What is the resource implication of adopting the proposed short-term efficiency measures? The
3 short term policy options center on the increase of pupil:teacher ratio via creating core subject
clusters and having teachers teach at least two subjects. The cost projections assume that the
initial costs of curriculum adaptation are minimum or can be shouldered by the EFAG and that
the Ministry is only concerned with the development costs (for piloting Community Polytechnics
and building regular day secondary schools) and the recurrent costs of wages and capitation
grants.

Two scenarios have been costed. Both scenarios center on increasing system efficiency via
increasing the Pupil:teacher ratio, though at a different rate. The baseline model includes a
modest agenda of reform which anticipates a gentle rise in the pupil teacher ratio. It would allow
about 200 new schools to be built by 2006 and 470 by 2011. The latter is sufficient to ensure all
sub-counties have a secondary school by 2011. It would also allow the secondary GER to climb
towards 50%, the level at which gender parity is likely to become a reality. And finally, it only
requires about 20-22% of overall MOE budget to be devoted to secondary and BTVET. The
report regards the baseline model to be more politically feasible as compared to the radical
model which will require a much faster increase of PTR. Therefore the report recommends that
the Baseline model be adopted for implementation. A process of further national and regional
consultation on these options has been agreed during the April 2002 Education Sector Review.
And the final action plan will be presented to the October 2002 Review and incorporated into the
Medium Term Budget Framework. Details of the cost projections can be found in Annex 3.

                                  Broad Policy Option for
       Improving the Efficiency, Coverage and Equity, and Quality and Relevance of
                                 Post-primary Education

                                       Short-term                             Medium-term
                                 (next 2 years)                        (next 3 to 5 years)                  (
Efficiency             Create core subject clusters and
(focus on curriculum   reduce the # of practical subjects
and teacher            being taught so that total number
rationalization)       of courses taught can be reduced;

                       Increase the Pupil:teacher ratio      Continue to increase PTR so that it       Mainta
                       gradually from 20 to 30-33            reaches a sustainable national average    nationa
                                                             desired by the Country                    consid
                                                                                                       deviati
                                                                                                       geogra
                                                                                                       demog
                       Create an integrated secondary
                       school system: convert the existing
                       secondary-level technical schools
                       to regular O-level day secondary;

                       Re-organize and re-energize the
                       post secondary BTVET
                                                             Increase the average secondary school     Mainta
                                                             size to reap economies of scale where     averag
                                                             feasible                                  recogn
                                                                                                       needs o
                                                                                                       areas
                                  Short-term                              Medium-term
                                 (next 2 years)                         (next 3 to 5 years)                 (
Coverage and Equity                                          Revise the current capitation grant       Contin
(focus on financing                                          scheme so that only the non-wage          implem
reform and targeted                                          expenses are covered; further             grants
assistance to needy                                          introduce variations of the formula to    and qu
students)                                                    address the inequity in public
                                                             financing:
                                                                 -24 a higher capitation grant to
                                                                     schools serving predominantly
                                                                     poor or other disadvantaged
                                                                     children
                                                                 -25 stop capitation grant to elite
                                                                     boarding schools, or only pay
                                                                     capitation grant based on the
                                                                     number of poor students
                                                                     enrolled in those schools
                                                                 -26 entertain the idea of providing
                                                                     such grant to private schools
                                                                 -27
                                                             Pilot formula-based salary grant so       Implem
                                                             that schools can decide the number        salary
and qualifications of teachers to be
hired.

                      Expand and        Institu
revise the existing bursary scheme so   schem
that more poor and other
disadvantaged children can benefit
from the bursaries.
                                       Short-term                            Medium-term
                                      (next 2 years)                       (next 3 to 5 years)         (
Quality and Relevance                                                                            Review
(focus on structure,                                                                             curricu
curriculum, teaching                                                                             to inter
reform)                                                                                          establi
                                                                                                 cycle w
                                                                                                 provid
                                                                                                 curricu
                                                                                                 Reform
                                                                                                 and tea
                                                                                                 structu

                                                                                                 Increas
                                                                                                 allocat
                                                                                                 (subjec



References:

Appleton, S. 2001. Education, Incomes and Poverty in Uganda in 1990s.

Bennell P and Sayed Y Improving the Management and Internal Efficiency of Post Primary
education and Training in Uganda.

Bennell, P., Hyde, K., and Swainson, N. 2002 The Impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic on the
Education Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Synthesis of the Findings and Recommendations of
Three Country Studies.

Bontoux, V., Buchan, A., Foster, D., Ibale, A., and Read, T. 2002. The Provision of
Instructional Materials to Secondary Institutions in Uganda. Draft Final Report.

Buchan, A., Foster, D., Ibale, A., Read, T. (2001) The Provision of Instructional Materials to
Secondary Institutions in Uganda, draft inception report. MOES.

Byaruhanga C, and Levine V Issues and Options for the Expansion of PPET in Uganda

IMPACT Associates and Monarch Consulting Teacher Utilisation Studies Vol 2 Final Report on
Secondary Schools.

Jansen, J. and Howie, S. 2002. The Secondary Education in Africa (SEIA) A Literature
Survey and Review of Best Practices. Draft.

Keating, Jack. 2000. Technical and Vocational Education in Uganda.
Keating, J. Firm Demand for Post Primary Qualifications, report to the Secondary Education
Commission Ministry of Education and Sports and the World Bank, Draft Firm

Latham, Michael. 2000? Uganda: A Review of the Current Role of the Private Provision
Within the Education Sector. HDNED. The World Bank

Lewin, Keith, and Calloids, 2001

Lewin, Keith. 2002. Options for Post Primary Education and Training in Uganda Increasing
Access, Equity and Efficiency within Sustainable budgets: A Draft Framework for Policy.

Ministry of Education and Sports. Conceptual Framework for the Proposed Curriculum for
Secondary Education With Emphasis on Vocationalization. Fifth Education Sector Review
April 2001, Uganda.

Ministry of Education and Sports. Revised Concept Paper on Community Polytechnics. Fifth
Education Sector Review April 2001, Uganda.

Tulya-Muhika S Unit Cost Study of Post Primary Institutions in Uganda

Uganda Examinations Board A Study of School Quality in Secondary Schools and equivalent
grades in Technical/Vocational Schools in Uganda,

Vocational Skills Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Phase I Synthesis Summary of Main
Findings and Recommendations. World Bank

World Bank. 1993. Primary Education: A World Bank Policy Paper.
Annex 1: Determinants of Secondary Enrollment using Multiple Regression Method

Bivariate comparisons, as shown below, give us some indication of how secondary coverage
varies by gender and by level of household expenditure. However, they are not able to identify
which are the most significant factors and therefore can not explain why coverage is low.
Multivariate analysis is needed for this. We used multivariate logistic regression to predict the
probability of secondary enrollment, including both currently enrolled students and those who
had graduated from secondary education, among a sub-sample of 13-to-25-year-olds who had
completed primary school. We included in our model the regional (Central, Eastern, and
Western, with Northern being the baseline), wealth (having a mud wall, total expenditure),
parental education, and family structure variables (age, gender, number of children under 18, age
of the youngest child). Our hypothesis was that these variables all affected the target child‟s
enrollment in secondary school.

 Table 47: Regression Results: Predicting the probability of secondary enrollment among 13-25 year olds who
                                         have completed primary school
    Variables      Model 1 Model 2          Model 3      Model 4      Model 5      Model 6      Model 7
                   B (s.e)   B (s.e)        B (s.e)      B (s.e)      B (s.e)      B (s.e)      B (s.e)
    Central             0.45         0.42           0.42         0.19         0.41         0.45         0.38
                      (0.29)      (0.29)          (0.29)      (0.30)        (0.30)      (0.33)       (0.37)
    Eastern            -0.05       -0.03            0.02       -0.14          0.09         0.02       -0.07
                      (0.32)      (0.32)          (0.32)      (0.32)        (0.33)      (0.35)       (0.38)
    Western             0.21         0.31           0.46         0.26         0.46         0.55         0.58
                      (0.31)      (0.31)          (0.31)      (0.32)        (0.32)      (0.35)       (0.38)
    Rural                      -0.76***       -0.65***      -0.47**        -0.38*        -0.28        -0.16
                                  (0.15)          (0.16)      (0.17)        (0.18)      (0.19)       (0.21)
    Mud wall                                     -0.40*        -0.14         -0.18       -0.40        -0.13
                                                  (0.19)      (0.20)        (0.21)      (0.23)       (0.24)
    Total
    expenditure                                             0.34***      0.43***      0.33***       0.23**
    (natural log)                                             (0.06)        (0.06)      (0.07)       (0.08)
    Age                                                                  0.17***      0.24***      0.23***
                                                                            (0.02)      (0.03)       (0.03)
    Gender                                                                   -0.17         0.03         0.04
                                                                            (0.15)      (0.17)       (0.19)
    Head        or                                                                   -3.46***      -3.05**
    Spouse                                                                              (0.73)       (0.74)
    # children                                                                           -0.03          0.00
    under 18                                                                            (0.03)       (0.03)
    Age of the                                                                             0.03       0.04*
    youngest                                                                            (0.02)       (0.02)
    Father‟s     e                                                                                    0.06*
    duration                                                                                         (0.02)
    Mother‟s                                                                                            0.03
    education                                                                                        (0.03)
    Constant        -3.30*** -2.92***         -2.90***     -7.75*** -12.36*** -12.32*** -11.56***
                      (0.27)      (0.28)          (0.28)      (0.87)        (1.12)      (1.19)       (1.30)
Note: * P<=0.05 ** P<=0.01       *** P<=0.001

A series of logistic regression models were fit. Table 48 lists the coefficients and standard
errors for each of the predictors. Model 7 is our final regression model. It shows that the
variables that are significantly correlated with secondary enrollment include total household
expenditure, age of the child, whether or not the target child is the head or spouse of the
household, the age of the youngest child in the household, and the father‟s education,
controlling for everything else.

There are no apparent regional differences in secondary enrollment among the primary
graduates, holding constant the control variables. This may appear counterintuitive, since we
know from the Ministry‟s Education Statistical Abstracts that the Central region usually has the
highest age-specific secondary enrollment, followed by the Eastern, Western, and lastly the
Northern, regions. However, it is not contradictory since our sub-sample only includes primary
graduates. The North has the lowest secondary enrollment, since it also has the lowest
proportion of children graduating from primary school. Also, in the multivariate analysis, we
are controlling for all other variables. The Central and Eastern advantage in secondary
enrollment can be mainly attributed to the higher proportion of their population who are primary
graduates and to the higher average level of expenditure (income).

Earlier, we also discussed that girls have a lower age-specific secondary enrollment after age 17.
The regression results show that, only controlling for household economic factors but without
controlling for family structural characteristics, girls are still less likely to enroll than boys.
However, once we take into account whether the target child is the head or spouse of the
household and the age of the youngest child in the household, girls do not differ from boys in
enrollment probability. This means that girls are less likely to enroll in secondary schools after
age 17 because they start to get married and become the spouse or head of a new household or
are taking care of the youngest child in the household, whether or not the child is hers.
Therefore, starting girls‟ schooling earlier is likely to lead to higher attainment for girls, in
addition to helping more girls into secondary school.

Not surprisingly, household expenditure is significantly and positively associated with secondary
enrollment. Children from better off households are more likely to be enrolled or to have
benefited from secondary education compared to their poor counterparts. This is consistent with
our findings from bivariate analysis. Being a head or spouse of the household significantly
lowers the probability of secondary attendance. Finally, father‟s education is another significant
and positive factor. The more years of education the father has received, the more likely the
target child is to enroll or to have enrolled in secondary school.

In short, the multivariate analysis found that poverty is the single most important factor in
determining secondary enrollment (negatively), along with father‟s education, whether the child
is already having his/her own family, and the age of the youngest child in the household.
Annex 2: Analyzing Private Direct and Opportunity Costs of PPET

Private Expenditures. Public expenditures on PPET, though already substantial as revealed by
the above analysis, are by no means the only cost to society in Uganda. Households also bear a
significant cost both in terms of direct costs and opportunity costs.

Direct Cost. We have mentioned several times that the major reason for not attending secondary
school is poverty. While public finance is well documented, much less is known about the
costs to students and families. The 1999/2000 household survey collected information on total
household expenditures on various items in education including schools fees (including
contributions to the Parent Teacher Association, boarding and lodging, uniforms, books and
supplies, and other expenses). The average household expenditure on books and supplies
amounted to Ush12,494, on school uniform Ush.15,699, on school and PTA fees Ush228,857,
and boarding and lodging Ush490,471.

                           Table 48: Education Expenditure UNHS 1999/2000
              Item Description                       Frequency          Mean Value
              Books and Supplies                                6,333             12,494
              School Uniforms                                   4,821             15,699
              School Fees and PTA                               3,855            228,857
              Other Education Expenses                          2,978             21,438
              Boarding and Lodging                                332            490,471
                                         Source: Analysis of UNHS

Though expenditure data are reported at the level of household and can not be directly attributed
to individual household members, it is possible to infer the costs associated with different
household members, based on changes in total household expenditure on education, as it relates
to the number of household members attending educational institutions.

Expenditure by Level of Educational Service. Estimates of expenditure associated with having a
household member in an educational institution were derived by regressing total household
expenditure on education on the set of variables for household members enrolled at each level.
The regression coefficient on the number of household members enrolled can be interpreted as
the additional expenditure associated with having one additional household member enrolled
in that level of education. To statistically control for the effects of differences in household
income, total cash income (from enterprise and employment) was also included as an argument
in the regression equation.

Results of the analysis are shown in Table 50, below. The first equation (Model 1) is based on
the entire UNHS sample of 10,696 households and shows the estimated impact of one additional
household member in a specific level of education on total household educational expenditure
(statistically controlling for family income). The equation explains over fifty percent (Adjusted
R2) of the variance in spending within the sample. Only those variables which were statistically
significant at the 0.5 level are included in the equation. For this reason, apprenticeship was not
included in this model.
                        Table 49: Regression Analysis of Household Education Expenditure - UNHS


                            Model 1             Model 2            Model 3           Model 4
Dependent Variable --      TOTAL ED            TOTAL ED          FEES & PTA         BOARDING
>                        EXPENDITURE         EXPENDITURE
Sample N                       10,696             6,724            6,724            6,724
Adjusted R2                     0.527             0.552            0.449            0.373
                        Coefficient   Sig. Coefficient Sig. Coefficient Sig. Coefficient Sig.
(Constant)                -34,987 0.0000     -44,285 0.0000   -29,696 0.0000   -15,310 0.0000

nursery                    46,441   0.0000     36,673   0.0006    32,325   0.0006
primary                    13,186   0.0000     12,980   0.0000     7,893   0.0007
post-primary              192,892   0.0000    202,019   0.0000    88,313   0.0046    91,660   0.0000
secondary                 241,271   0.0000    238,042   0.0000   162,367   0.0000    51,168   0.0000
post-secondary            224,204   0.0000    234,666   0.0000   176,400   0.0000    48,928   0.0000
diploma                   378,973   0.0000    400,333   0.0000   298,441   0.0000    76,894   0.0000
university                763,188   0.0000    746,015   0.0000   605,592   0.0000   107,865   0.0000
apprenticeship
Total cash inc. (000)         438   0.0000        54 0.0000         385 0.0000          10 0.0000

                            Model 5            Model 6            Model 7
Dependent Variable --      UNIFORMS           BOOKS &             OTHER
>                                             SUPPLIES
Sample N                        6,724             6,724            6,724
Adjusted R2                     0.487             0.518            0.291
                        Coefficient   Sig. Coefficient Sig. Coefficient Sig.
(Constant)                      714 0.0920        -144 0.8157      -131 0.8717

nursery                     3,254   0.0000      1,664 0.0375       3,147   0.0026
primary                     2,086   0.0000      1,373 0.0000       1,590   0.0000
post-primary                7,157   0.0001                        10,790   0.0018
secondary                   7,575   0.0000     10,091   0.0000     7,022   0.0000
post-secondary              2,276   0.0201      3,959   0.0058
diploma                     2,818   0.0418     15,518   0.0000     7,137 0.0070
university                  3,407   0.0225     16,106   0.0000    13,333 0.0000
apprenticeship              6,913   0.0320
Total cash inc. (000)           1   0.0000         3 0.0000           1 0.0000
The model suggests that having one additional household member enrolled in secondary school
is associated with increased annual expenditure (on education) of USh 241,000.

Model 2, presents results from the same analysis, restricting the sample to the 6,724 households
which report at least one member enrolled in education and at least some educational
expenditure. The results using this sub-sample are virtually identical to those using all UNHS
households (Model 1).

Our best estimate of the private costs of having a household member in secondary school are
therefore in the range of USh 238,000 to 241,000 per year. It is important to bear in mind that
these figures only reflect household expenditure. To the extent that extended family members,
or other sources, also contribute to educational expenditure, they may be biased downward.

The data also provide a basis for estimating expenditure by cost category. Models 3 through 7
show the results of analysis of information of expenditure on specific cost items. For example,
Model 3 uses expenditure on Fees and PTA as the dependent variable, rather than total
expenditure. The results of the five expenditure regression analyses (Models 3 through 7) are
summarized in Table 51.

                   Table 50: Summary of Household Expenditure on Education by Category




  Household Expenditure on Secondary
         Item        Cost     Percent
  Fees & PTA         162,367    68.2%
  Boarding            51,168    21.5%
  Uniforms              7,575    3.2%
  Books & Supplies    10,091     4.2%
  Other                 7,022    2.9%
  Total              238,223




The estimate total cost of secondary derived from the individual cost item equations is
comparable to that derived from total expenditure.

Unit Cost (Direct) In short summary, we have estimated that the average annual direct cost of
providing secondary education includes costs borne by the government at Ush236,994 and by
families at Ush241,000, suggesting a total average annual direct unit cost of USH 478,000 per
student. It is important to note that currently families meet over half of the direct cost of
secondary education, on average.

This figure is very similar to the results from Unit Cost Study , which analyzed the expenditure
patterns of 120 sampled PPET institutions nationwide. The Unit Cost concluded that
nationwide average recurrent unit cost per secondary student is about Ush.490,236. The small
difference may be due to the fact that the Unit Cost aggregated all sources of incomes at the
school level including government, households, and other donations.

Opportunity Cost. In addition to direct costs, families (and, by extension, society), also incur
“opportunity costs”. The “opportunity cost” of a student‟s time is the value of that time in the
best alternative activity”.

One approach to estimating opportunity cost is to look at the earnings of primary school
graduates (without secondary education) for whom earned employment income data are
available in the UNHS. However, given the structure of the Ugandan economy very few
individuals are in formal employment. Of the total sample of 57,385 household members, only
4,291 (fewer than eight percent) are reported to have employment income.
When we restrict the analysis to a sample of P7 completers who are not in school, and have a
reported earned income of at least 4,000 per month, there are only 407 respondents in the
sample. The mean income for this sub-sample (including all income from main and secondary
in cash and in kind) of employed P7 graduates is 689,000.

It is well documented, however, that individual earnings increase over the working lifetime due
to experience and on-the-job training. When we compare mean earnings of P7 graduates by age
groups, this anticipated relationship appears, as shown in Table 52.

                          Table 51: Average Earnings of P7 Completers by Age


                     Age Category       Mean           N         Std. Deviation
                         Lt 25            498,433           98            470,282
                        25-29             655,076          100            596,910
                        30-39             794,246          120            991,984
                        40-70             794,131           89            895,406
                         Total            688,799          407            785,283



Ideally, we would look at the earning income of P7 completers in the age bracket 15-20 for our
estimate of opportunity costs. UNHS do not provide sufficient cases in this age group and we
therefore use the all individuals under age 25 for this purpose; this may introduce a slight upward
bias in the estimate. Based on reported employment income, our best estimate of the opportunity
cost of P7 graduates (in the age group attending PPET) would therefore be on the order of
500,000 per year or about twice the direct costs to families. This estimate is, however, based on
a sample of fewer than 100 individuals.
Of course, in the Ugandan context, most P7 graduates do not find paid employment. Those who
are employed in the formal sector may by systematically different from the majority of P7
graduates and therefore may constitute an inappropriate sample for inferring opportunity costs.

Of those (ages 15 through 69) not in school at the time of the survey, only 11 percent were
engaged in paid employment . The probability of being in formal employment increases with
educational attainment, as discussed in Section 4.2.7 above.

The UNHS does provide information on income from household enterprises. However, unlike
employment income, these data are not (and cannot) be directly attributed to individual
household members and are reported for the household, as a whole.

One way to infer the contribution of individual household members is to look at total household
enterprise income in relation to the composition of the household workforce, statistically
controlling for other inputs such as land, equipment, livestock, and geographic region. In order
to develop estimates of this relationship, it is necessary to use some simplifying assumptions
about the contribution of household members to household enterprise income. In the analysis
that follows, we have attributed all reported enterprise income to household members between
the ages of 15-69 who are not students and who do not report significant earned employment
income.

The analysis is based on a sub-sample of 8,664 households for which enterprise income is
reported and where adult (age 15-69) members, not in school and not reporting earned income,
reside. The approach involves using individual household member data to construct “counts” of
the number of members, who fall into specific education and age categories, by household.
These data are then merged with information on household enterprise income, assets, livestock
and location; creating a new analysis file where the household is the unit of analysis. This new
file, includes measures of household income, productive assets and labor involved in household
production. Multiple regression is then used as a way to “explain” differences in household
production by differences in assets and labor. The estimated coefficient on a specific category
(education and age) of household worker can be interpreted as the “marginal productivity” of one
additional worker of that type on household production. That is, what that individual
contributes to annual household production, controlling for assets and location. In this case, we
are particularly interested in the contribution of young P7 completers, as this is an estimate of the
opportunity cost of their time.

Various household enterprise production function were estimated. In each model, household
labor was entered as a count of the number of household members in one of 25 education-age
cells (five education by 5 age categories). Results of the best fit “Model A” are shown in Table
53, below.

The coefficients on the education-age cell variables can be interpreted as the contribution of one
additional household member (with these characteristics) to total household production,
controlling for assets and geographic location.

Several general points warrant comment:
1. There is a strong and consistent pattern of productivity increasing with education. This
   suggests that formal education significantly increases productivity not only in formal
   employment but in household production, as well. For example, regression coefficients in
   Model A suggest that at age 26-35, primary school graduates are twice as productive as those
   with less education.
2. Age earnings profiles appear to be convex from above – rising with age, reaching a plateau
   and then declining – in a pattern similar to that observed for formal employment. In
   general, the peak comes at an earlier age than in the formal labor market. It is not possible
   to assess the extent this reflects lifecycle patterns in physical strength and stamina or patterns
   of gaining skills through “on-the-job” training.
3. Returns to marginal investments in land and equipment appear to be quite modest, on the
   order of one percent. Returns to investments in livestock and poultry appear to be higher,
   on the order of ten percent.
4. Controlling for assets and labor, there is a premium associated with household enterprises
   located in regions other than the Northern region (the excluded dichotomous variable). This
   premium is highest in the Central region.

                              Table 52 : Household Enterprise Production Function


   MODEL A                   Adj R square =              0.23

      Independent Variable     Coeficient      Signif.    N       Yrs Educ   Age
   (Constant)                       122,118     0.0000
   <P7 / 15-25                      107,921     0.0000    3,803       2.88    20.33
   <P7 / 26-35                      192,506     0.0000    3,275       2.69    30.35
   <P7 / 36-45                      249,471     0.0000    2,273       2.38    40.26
   <P7 / 46-55                      166,029     0.0000    1,503       1.93    50.37
   <P7 / 56-69                       91,404     0.0000    1,601       1.55    61.91
   P7 / 15-25                       229,850     0.0000      767       7.00    20.41
   P7 / 26-35                       440,927     0.0000      618       7.00    30.25
   P7 / 36-45                       398,997     0.0000      447       7.00    39.90
   P7 / 46-55                       366,719     0.0000      148       7.00    49.20
   P7 / 56-69                       330,509     0.0047       48       7.00    61.06
   S1-S2 / 15-25                    334,036     0.0000      341       8.47    21.00
   S1-S2 / 26-35                    595,775     0.0000      301       8.54    29.95
   S1-S2 / 36-45                    564,157     0.0000      139       8.61    40.17
   S1-S2 / 46-55                    569,682     0.0000      142       8.80    50.89
   S1-S2 / 56-69                    299,650     0.0002      105       8.96    60.91
   S3-S4 / 15-25                    317,203     0.0000      317      10.61    21.30
   S3-S4 / 26-35                    435,737     0.0000      276      10.62    30.07
   S3-S4 / 36-45                    702,060     0.0000      159      10.69    40.31
   S3-S4 / 46-55                    863,595     0.0000       63      10.59    49.29
   S3-S4 / 56-69                    561,605     0.0142       13      10.77    60.00
   >S4 / 15-25                      473,195     0.0000      170      13.52    22.23
   >S4 / 26-35                      925,745     0.0000      160      13.98    30.00
   >S4 / 36-45                      974,381     0.0000      104      13.99    40.35
   >S4 / 46-55                      771,548     0.0000       73      14.23    50.58
   >S4 / 56-69                      266,158     0.0137       56      14.27    62.00
   LAND_EQP (10,000)                      99    0.0000
   LIVESTCK (10,000)                    978     0.0000
   CENTRAL                          579,921     0.0000
   EAST                             226,310     0.0000
   WEST                             400,724     0.0000
The marginal productivity of P7 completers in household enterprise activities (the “opportunity
cost” of attending PPET) was of particular interest in this analysis. Estimates were consistent
across the three models used, as summarized in Table 54.




                        Table 53: Estimated "Shadow Wage" of P7 Completers



       Age      Model A Model B Model C            Mean
    15-25        229,850 219,603 222,011           223,821
    26-35        440,927 432,213 433,638           435,593
    36-45        398,997 389,197 392,363           393,519
    46-55        366,719 357,928 358,354           361,001
    56-69        330,509 338,472 328,088           332,356
We noted that about 15 percent of P7 completers (who do not continue in school) enter market
employment. The remaining 85 percent are assumed to be active in household enterprises. If
we use the average wage (weighted by the probability of being either in market or household
employment) as the basis for estimating the opportunity cost of being in PPET, our best estimate
would be USh 265,000 per annum, as shown in Table 55. This is approximately equal to the
average direct costs borne by households.

                                Table 54: Opportunity Cost of PPET



        Activity           Pct   Wage
  market employment         15% 498,443
  household enterprise      85% 223,812
  weighted average              265,007




This estimate may be upward biased, given that it is based on the age 15-25 cohort. On the
other hand, to the extent that individuals who do enter PPET may be systematically more able
(therefore more likely to find formal sector employment), the estimate may be downward biased.
We have no basis for estimating the extent of biases; they may be offsetting.

In summary, the “opportunity cost” of attending PPET, Ush 265,007 is slightly higher than the
average direct cost to households, Ush241,000. We estimate average public expenditure
Ush236,994 per pupil enrolled in secondary education. The combined cost to families (direct
and indirect) represents over two-thirds of the total recurrent cost of secondary schooling.
           Annex 3: Projected Cost of Adopting Short Term Efficiency Measures

  Options for Policy, Financing, and Action

The Baseline Model. A framework for policy has been developed through consultation, the
identification of achievable policy goals, and the construction of a detailed projection model.
The Baseline Ten Year Uganda Projection Model for PPET has been used to test the
financial sustainability of the proposals. In summary this assumes that the MTBF grows at 6.5%,
and price inflation is around 3% p.a. The PPET model allows overall transition rates to S1 to be
sustained between 40% and 50% and GER to climb from 30% to 45%. It is assumed that private
sector growth will fall away to less than 5% p.a. as price constraints exclude low income
households. Enrolments would climb in government schools to about 625,000 and private
schools to 900,000. The demand for newly trained teachers would be somewhat less than 1500
p.a. for government schools and about 2,250 in private schools. The current model will require
allocations to secondary of about 18% of total public expenditure on education, and 4% for
BTVET. The latter is likely to be an over estimate. It is based on growth of 5% p.a. in
enrolments which recent recruitment suggests is unlikely. Overall allocations therefore would be
between 20% and 22% of the education budget, an imaginable level to sustain.

The baseline model includes a modest agenda of reform which anticipates a gentle rise in the
pupil teacher ratio. It would allow about 200 new schools to be built by 2006 and 470 by 2011.
The latter is sufficient to ensure all sub-counties have a secondary school by 2011. It would also
allow the secondary GER to climb towards 50%, the level at which gender parity is likely to
become a reality. The detailed activities included in the Baseline model are listed in Tables 55
& 56.

Two further variants of the baseline model have been developed. These are:

The Status Quo model. This shows what would happen if PTRs at secondary remained
unchanged, and the number of teachers was allowed to grow accordingly. The growth of S1
enrolments has been kept the same as in the baseline model. In addition community polytechnics
have been constructed according to the latest full cost proposal (not the low cost small scale pilot
in the baseline model) which would result in 240 existing by 2006, and the building/conversion
programme continuing at the same level into the future, giving 480 institutions by 2011/12.
21,000 would be enrolled in CPs by 2006 and 124,000 by 2011. The other activities have been
retained as in the baseline model.

There would not be a substantial gain in transition rates; secondary GER in government schools
would not change and the increased BTVET enrolment would add at most about 8% to the GER
after 10 years if places were taken up. Over 25,000 teachers would be need to be employed in
secondary at the end of the projection, working at the same levels of efficiency as today, and
about 5,300 teachers in community polytechnics.

Most importantly, this model would be very unlikely to result in gender parity (a Millennium
Development Goal) both because GERs would not rise much, and because the increases would
be in community polytechnics that have yet to prove attractive to girls (technical and farm
schools overwhelmingly enrol boys).

This model is completely unsustainable. It would require over 40% of the education budget. It
would create recurrent deficits of USh28 billion and USh 60 billion in 2006 and 2011 for
secondary and USh16 billion and USh 78 billion for BTVET.

Radical Reform Model. This version of the model seeks to ensure that all sub-counties have
access to secondary schooling by 2006. This requires a faster increase in PTRs, reduced
enrolments in NTCs to reflect actual demand for teachers, no community polytechnic
programme (since each sub-county will have a secondary school and two additional institutions
cannot be supported within the envelope). The model provides for enhanced capitation to be
directed to schools serving disadvantaged groups. It also freezes publicly funded growth in post
school BTVET on the assumption that Colleges would continue to receive the current number of
Window 1 students (i.e. publicly financed), and that any growth would be in Window 2 students
(privately financed.

Numbers enrolled would increase considerably to 1.8 million by 2011, giving higher transition
rates rising to 55% and a GER of over 60%. Teachers employed would rise initially (2006) to
16,700, and then (2011) to 19,800. The increase in the GER would greatly increase the chances
of achieving the gender Millennium Development Goal, since progress on female enrolment
rates is closely associated with increased secondary GER.

The recurrent budget in 2006 has a deficit of about USh 9 billion, and BTVET is in surplus by
USh 12 billion. On the development budget the figures are USh 23 billion deficit and USh 3
billion surplus. Most of the development costs are new school building costs. If the average price
could be reduced significantly below Ush140 million this would have a direct effect on the
deficit. If cost sharing and economies of scale in purchasing reduced costs to Ush100 million the
deficit would fall by USh 6 billion to about USh 17 billion.

On this projection PPET would absorb about 22% of government recurrent expenditure on
education. BTVETs share would drop significantly. It is assumed that savings on BTVET would
be transferred to secondary. The investment necessary to cover the development costs can be
fairly represented as the additional cost of taking on an ambitious programme which would have
a major impact on access, equity and efficiency.

Summary on Projections
The results of the above projections indicate that the Status Quo model is not only financially
unsustainable as it would require 40% of total education budget, it is also not desirable in terms
achieving the enrollment and gender equity goals for PPET. The Radical Reform Model, on the
other hand, contains drastic measures, the main ones being increasing the pupil:teacher ratio
from 17 to 40 over the next 10 years and freezing publicly financed growth in the BTVET sector.
Such fast increase in the PTR may raise resistance from the teachers and parents. The complete
freezing of the BTVET sector also may not agree with the popular belief.

The Baseline Model, on the other hand, requires only a moderate increase of PTR to 33 over the
next 10 years. It also allows for the construction of a limited number of community
polytechnics (a cheaper version of what is proposed currently) which can be easily converted
into general secondary schools if necessary in the future. More importantly, it allows the gross
enrollment ratio of S1-S4 to reach 50% by the end of the 10 years projected and achieve better
equity. Therefore the Report recommends that the Baseline Model be adopted in the Uganda
PPET Policy and Strategic Framework.
Table 55: Consolidated Reforms and Activities in the Baseline Model with Incremental
Reforms


Key Indicators                                2002      2006      2011

Total Primary Enrolment                      371107    461600    598038
Total P7 Enrolment                           601987    828452    949803
Transition rate P7-S1 (Government)               23        15        17
Transition rate P7-S1 (Total)                    54        36        39
Gross Enrolment Rate (Government)                16        18        20
Gross Enrolment Rate (Total)                     35        40        45
S1 Entry Enrolment (Government)              103940    135702    169191
S1 Entry Enrolment (Total)                   140540    183432    228701
Rate of Growth of S1 Entry (Government)       1.075      1.05     1.025
Rate of Growth of S1 Entry ( Private)         1.075      1.05     1.025
Total Enrolment Secondary (Government)       371107    461600    598038
Total Enrolment Secondary                    808832   1007660   1302320
TI Enrolment                                   5500      6685      8532
TS Enrolment                                   6000      7293      9308
Secondary Teachers Govt                       14396     15444     16873
New Secondary Teachers Needed (Government)      966      1343      1102
New Secondary Teachers (Needed Private)        1012      1550      1250
CP Teachers Needed                                0       125       175
College Enrolments (W1)                       13116     15924     20347
NTC Enrolments (W1)                            8400      8400      8400

PTRs Secondary                                   23        27        32
PTRs BTVET TI                                     9         9         9
PTRs BTVET TS                                    11        11        11
PTRs CPs                                         24        24        24

Total Recurrent Secondary                      68.4      91.5     125.6
MTBF Recurrent Secondary                       68.2      87.7     120.1
Balance Recurrent Secondary                    -0.3      -3.8      -5.5
Total Development Secondary                     5.9      15.5      17.1
MTBF Development Secondary                      7.1       9.2      12.6
Balance Development Secondary                   1.3      -6.4      -4.6

Total Recurrent BTVET                          14.7      20.3      29.3
MTBF Recurrent BTVET                           15.4      22.5      36.3
Balance Recurrent BTVET                         0.7       2.3       7.0
Total Development BTVET                         3.0       4.8       2.8
MTBF Development BTVET                          4.6       5.9       8.1
Balance Development BTVET                       1.5       1.0       5.3

GoU Budget                                   1228.0    1606.1    2200.4
MTBF Growth Rate                              0.065     0.065     0.065
Recurrent
% to Education                                 30.7      31.0      31.0
% to Secondary                                          18.1        18.1       18.1
% to BTVET                                               4.0         4.0        4.2



Table 56: Activities for Baseline Model


Activities

Secondary                                         Initial Year 2002-2006 2007-11         Total
                                                                                         2002-2011

Build new schools in disadvantaged sub counties           15        196        273             469
New classrooms added to schools                           77        982       1364            2346
Rehabilitated classrooms                                 100        640        560            1200
New Labs/Workshops                                        12        157        218             375


Textbook stocking, grants, rental (USh Billion)            2          11            14           25
Equipment restocking (Ush Billions)                      1.0         5.4           7.1         12.4
Bursaries (cost in billions)                               0           2             3
Capitation (cost in billions)                              6           9            14

BTVET
New CPs                                                  0.0        14.0        0.0            14.0
Converted CPs                                            0.0         0.0        0.0             0.0
Rehabilitated TS                                         6.0        30.0        0.0            30.0
Rehabilitated TI                                         6.0        30.0        0.0            30.0
Rehabilitated Colleges (cost in billions)                1.5         8.4       12.0            20.4

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:19
posted:1/13/2012
language:
pages:133