2004 Hog Situation & Outlook
Curt Lacy
Extension Economist - Livestock
BARROW AND GILT PRICES
Iowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Basis, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
75
70 Avg.
65 1997-01
60
55
50 2002
45
40
35
2003
30
25
H-P-09
R
N
T
L
C
JU
AP
JA
12/30/03
O
Farrow-Finish Profits
Iowa-Southern Minnesota.
2003
15
10
5
0
$/Hd.
-5
-10
-15
-20
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Net Returns
Annual Estimated Returns
Farrow-Finish, 1991-2003
20
15
10
5
0
$/Hd.
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Net Returns
Source: John Lawerence, ISU
Inventory Numbers
December 30, 2003
U.S. % Change from
1,000 head Previous Year
All Hogs 58,205 -1.8%
Breeding Herd 6,021 -3.4%
Market Hogs 52,186 -1.6%
<60 lbs. 19,090 -2.5%
60-119 lbs. 12,655 -2.5%
120-179 lbs. 10,919 -2.3%
180 lbs. + 9,815 +1.5%
Inventory Numbers
December 30, 2003
U.S. % Change from
1,000 head Previous Year
Pig Crop
Jun-Aug 25,150 -2.1%
Sep-Nov 25,314 +1.7%
Jun-Nov 50,464 -0.3%
Farrowing Intentions
Dec-Feb 2,806 -1.5%
Mar-May 2,846 -1.2%
Dec-May 5,652 +0.001%
Pork Production for 2001-2004
20.2
20
19.8
Million Lbs.
19.6
19.4
19.2
19
18.8
18.6
2001 2002 2003 2004
Annual Production
Net U.S. Pork Exports
1994-2004
Million Pounds of Carcass Weight
700
600
500
400
million lbs.
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Projected Cash Hog Prices
2004
Live Wt. Basis, IA-So. MN
Quarter Projected Price
Q1 $33-$35
Q2 $38-$40
Q3 $39-$42
Q4 $33-$37
Year $36-$39
2004 Hog Outlook Summary
• Higher feed costs
• More pork
• More exports
• Steady demand
• Steady to lower prices
• Opportunities exist to cover variable costs