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ERTMS on the PBKAL corridor by yurtgc548

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 10

									                ERTMS on the PBKAL
                     corridor
                   Financial analysis, a first step
                             Dec. 3, 2003




A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
                … first, a pinch of salt :
• Most data or assumptions have been
  provided by various IMs or RUs (warm
  thanks), and collected by UIC
• Some data had to be extrapolated
• Data assembly by AEIF / EEG speaker
• The following is not an official statement
  by any of the aforementioned bodies,
  but
• An attempt to estimate orders of
  magnitude and methodological
A. Magnien - 1/12/2003

  difficulties
                         The PBKAL corridor
  A mixture of
  • Conventional & high speed lines
  • Conventional & high speed trains
  • With a highly specialized link
    (Chunnel)
  • Cumulated line length = 1025 km
  • 25 segments, from 2 km to 200 km

A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
                         Assessment
•    What ?
•    Where ?
•    When ?
•    Why ?




A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
  What, Where : trackside ETCS
• Double Ground = ETCSn                           700
  overlaid on active                              600
  « legacy » signalling                           500




                                        Line.km
  system                                          400
• Exception = where                               300
  existing planning only                          200
  considers ETCS (? - with,                       100
  maybe, lineside signals for backup)               0
•  « Infrastructure-                                   Level 1 overlaid
  only » assessment                                     Level 2 overlaid
                                                        Level 2 standalone
  A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
                         GSM-R
• GSM-R supposed available where
  ETCS2 is proposed
• Quality of service to be considered
• Cost model made available by GSM-R
  Industry Group
• Cost calculation made for Chunnel
  only


A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
                           Unit costs
• GSM-R : included in model
• ETCS : wide range ; per double track km :
       – ETCS 2 Lowest : 22.3 kEur
               • adapted interlocking, few LEUs, no added GSM-
                 R…
       – ETCS 2 Highest : 240 kEur
               • Ill-adapted interlocking…
       – ETCS 1 Lowest : 75 kEur
       – ETCS 1 highest : 170 kEur
               • Signal density in urban areas is generally high
A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
       First Results / shortcomings
ETCS only                 Not counted :
                             – Interlocking renewal
                             (generally)
  45 MEuro
                             – GSM-R upgrade
                             – Track possession
GSM-R for chunnel
 only                        – …and, of course, Rolling
                             Stock !
  28 MEuro                Not considered :
                            – Operational need for diverted
 A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
                             routes or branch lines
                             (alternatively, STM availability)
                          Scheduling Issues
• Advance investment in GSM-R
    – induces financial costs
    – Feasibility not 100% guaranteed (time constraints on
      Rolling Stock migration?)
• Coordination between national ETCS equipment
  plans, to reduce number of signalling transitions
• Delay between Pilot Projects and further projects
• Output capacity (Signalling Engineering, Industry)
• ETCS 2 - specific : interlocking replacement
  schedule, in some cases
 A. Magnien - 1/12/2003
                          Further Work
• Clarify and rank needs & constraints, e.g. : avoid
  additional on-board equipment, avoid retrofit of
  existing rolling stock, avoid lineside signalling
  system transitions…
• Establish an infrastructure schedule (ETCS and
  GSM-R) co-ordinated between countries
• Consider « natural » Rolling Stock migration
  (application of 96/48, 2001/16 and TSIs)
• For other Rolling Stock, examine cost & benefit to
  determine « induced » migration
• Estimate Project and escalated costs
• Estimate escalated benefits
 A. Magnien - 1/12/2003

								
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