N Mesoscale Modeling Branch:
Where We Are and
C Where We’re Going
E Geoff DiMego
geoff.dimego@noaa.gov
P 301-763-8000 ext7221
9 December 2008
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Where the Nation’s climate and weather services begin
Who We Are
• Government Scientists • Contractor Scientists
– Tom Black – Ed Colon*
– Jun Du – Brad Ferrier
– Dennis Keyser – George Gayno*
– Ying Lin – Ho-Chun Huang*
– Geoff Manikin – Dusan Jovic*
– Ken Mitchell* – LSM Lead – Dongchul Kim*
– Jeff McQueen – Pius Lee
– Dave Parrish – Shun Liu
– Matt Pyle – Guang-Ping Lou
– Eric Rogers – Manuel Pondeca*
– Wan-Shu Wu – Jim Purser*
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SREFp indicates higher probability
over lower MS Valley (also note
mean STP = 3 contour in SREFp
but not in SREF)
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HPC: ZR forecast verifying at 00 UTC on 17 Dec 2007: SREFP
shows better areal coverage and amount
F24hr F48hr
OPS SREF
F24hr F48hr
PARA SREF
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Precip Scores 4 Cold-Season Retro Runs (Ying Lin)
ETS ETS
bias bias
(1) Feb. 9-14, 2008, HPC (2) Feb. 2-6, 2008, SPC (Super Tue Tornado)
ETS ETS
bias bias
(3) Jan. 1-6, 2008, HPC (4) Dec. 14-16, 2007, HPC 62
Precip Verification from NCO’s parallel SREF: both
ETS and Bias scores improved (from Ying)
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SREF 09z Calibrated Lightning
Verification of Lightning Fcsts Valid 00 UTC 5 Nov 2008
SREF 3 Day Sample SREFp 3 Day Sample
SREF -
SREFp Thunderstorm Calibration Statistics:
6 Month • SREFp Brier score slightly improved
Sample (13% vs 9% improvement over climo)
• SREFp ROC area slightly improved
(0.83 vs 0.78)
• Expect results to continue to improve as
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calibration adjusts to SREFp
Summary of SREF Evaluations
• Strong low-level temperature cold bias is gone for
NMM members
• Both individual members and ensemble mean perform
better
• Ensemble spread quality improves
• Probabilistic forecast improves
• More detailed features are seen such as precip and T
fields due to model resolution increase
• More frequent forecast outputs (hourly) and new
aviation ensemble products available to forecasters
• More balanced in membership among four models used
(about 5 each)
• SPC, HPC, AWC and Rich Grumm gave “Thumbs Up”
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Chronology & Current Status
• July Code handed over to NCO
• August Major changes to produce hourly output
• August/September EMC ran cold season retro runs for HPC and SPC and
NCO & EMC worked to construct the NCO parallel system
• Sept 20 NCO parallel starts to run regularly
• Oct. 14 – Nov. 14 Official forecaster evaluation period
• Nov. 17 Fix to turn on precipitation rate field for ARW members (discovered
and requested by SPC/David Bright)
• Nov. 19 Failure due to script error (shared working directories)
• Nov. 21 ARW member fails due to bad input data
• Nov. 22-23 Three 21z runs fail with fix for shared directory problem
• Nov. 25 New SREF implementation is postponed
• EMC will establish a SREF parallel on new Cirrus machine
– Produce hourly output for SPC calibrations
– Re-submit clean SREF package for implementation later in 2009
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FY2010 SREF Upgrade
• Expand bias correction to full domain (grids #221
for all of No. Am., #216 for AK and #243 for
Pacific Region)
• Downscale all members to at least ~12km with
NAM hi-res control
• Downscale all members to 5 km for those
variables provided by RTMA
• Add ensemble product based on BUFR
• Bias correct precipitation
• Replace breeding with ET method
• Add 10-50-90 precentile output
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FY2008 Experimental
NAM-driven HYSPLIT
Alaskan Smoke Product
Now Run by NCO in
NWPROD
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Operational FY08 Forecast Domain
48 h forecasts of Sfc Ozone at 06 and 12Z
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grid
cells
CONUS “5x” Domain
(clean, static BC)
1. Operational NAM-CMAQ
2. Exp: NAM-CMAQ w/ PM
442 grid cells
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2008 Real-time Runs
WRF-CMAQ 48 h forecasts
System Domain Chemistry Emissions PBL
Operational CONUS CB-04 EGU: 2008 DOE Asymmetric
Prod: 06/12Z 22 L common gas-phase projected Convective
65p, 35 min hybrid vertical 2005 Area:2005 NEI Model
coordinate Mobile: OTAG & (ACM-2)
2005 NEI
Experimental Para: CONUS 22 L CB05 w/ Same as Ops but for ACM-2
06/12Z “ “ harmonized expanded CB05
127p, 120 min aerosols species
Develop CONUS 22 L CB05 w/ heterog. Same as EXP w/ ACM-2 w/ NAM
Dev2: 06Z only “ “ aerosols & smoke HMS/BlueSky wild Kz & mixed layer
127p, 120 min fire sources fire sources depth
Results with CB05 were slightly worse
so no SMAQ upgrade this year. 70
8hr Max Ozone: July 10, 2008
Experimental Run :
• Better over SJV, SAC valleys 71
•Stronger Overprediction over LA basin by as much as 40 ppb comp. to obs
Air Quality FY09 Milestones
• Add experimental Ozone runs for Alaska and Hawaii
domains
• Declare Alaska HYSPLIT smoke run operational
• Add experimental Hawaii HYSPLIT smoke run and
CONUS dust product
• Upgrade HYSPLIT physics and test a CONUS dust
capability
• Continue exp & dev Particulate Matter runs with CMAQ
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Proposed O-CONUS Domains
in FY09
Alaska 2.5X Hawaii 0.5X
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Other Projects
• DTRA / dispersion (McQueen)
• Verification implementation & unification
Verification implementation & unification
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod/
• Aviation products for ICAO & Transition of
Transition of
AWRP algorithms from AWC to
FAA AWRP algorithms from AWC to
NCEP’s CCS.
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■ Cyclone tracking & verification system
NCEP/EMC Cyclone Tracking and
Verification System
J-Jobs
4 times daily: GFS, NAM, GEFS, SREF
2 times daily: ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS,
UKMET, CENS (00Z, 12Z)
SMS 1 time daily: EENS (12Z)
21 CPU for GEFS, SREF Single CPU for GFS, NAM,
17 CPU for CENS
POE ECMWF, CMC, UKMET,
50 CPU for EENS Scripts NOGAPS
Model data
Search
Output forecast tracks
(ATCF, TIGGE)
Climate pairs each month
Storage (ATCF, MySQL)
Climate verification
month, season, year
Forecast
tracks Visualization: Web display
Forecast tracks
Match Verify
Analysis tracks
pairs F vs A Position errors 76
Analysis X-Y biases, etc
tracks