Craigavon Town Centre Retail Study Volume 1

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					Colliers CRE                                                Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                Department of Environment, Planning Service

                                                                                                                         ____________________   _________




CONTENTS                                                	                                                                                   PAGE

1.       INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................1 

         Terms of Reference...................................................................................................................1 

         Background and Planning Context ...........................................................................................2 

         Study Approach ........................................................................................................................4 

         Structure of the Report..............................................................................................................7 



2.	      ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND POLICY FRAMEWORK .............................................9

         Regional Economic Context .....................................................................................................9 

         Planning Policy Framework....................................................................................................10 

         Lurgan Development Framework ...........................................................................................11 

         Portadown Development Framework .....................................................................................12 

         Retail Hierarchy and Market Overview ..................................................................................13 

         Consultations and Representations: Key Themes ...................................................................16 



3.	      SUB-REGIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS AND RETAIL TRADING 

         PERFORMANCE .................................................................................................................18

         Introduction.............................................................................................................................18 

         Survey Methodology and Catchment Area Definition............................................................19 

         Assessment of the Craigavon District Retail Economy as a Whole .......................................21 

         Town Catchment Areas...........................................................................................................24 

         Town Dominance....................................................................................................................26 

         Characteristics of Shopper Behaviour.....................................................................................27 



4.       VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF TOWN CENTRES.....................................................30 

         	
         The Role and Requirements of PPS 5.....................................................................................30 

         Approach to Measuring Vitality and Viability .......................................................................31 

         Craigavon Town Centre .........................................................................................................33 

         Lurgan Town Centre ...............................................................................................................40 

         Portadown Town Centre .........................................................................................................46 

         Health Check Summary and Qualitative Need .......................................................................52 

Colliers CRE                                                 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service

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5. 	     QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: METHODOLOGY, DATA SOURCES AND 

         ASSUMPTIONS....................................................................................................................55 

         Objectives ...............................................................................................................................55 

         Quantitative Need Methodology.............................................................................................55 

         The Household Telephone Survey..........................................................................................58 

         Principal Data Sources............................................................................................................60 

         Interpretation and Definitions .................................................................................................62 



6.       Q
         	 UANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: ASSESSMENT AND RESULTS ...........................70 

         Objectives ...............................................................................................................................70 

         Approach.................................................................................................................................71 

         Analysis: Comparison Goods .................................................................................................72 

         Analysis: Convenience Goods ................................................................................................79 

         Summary .................................................................................................................................82 



7. 	     STUDY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...............................................84 

         Introduction.............................................................................................................................84 

         Retail Floorspace Need ...........................................................................................................84 

         Why is there a Lack of Quantitative Need? ............................................................................87 

         Wider Retail and Economic Consideration.............................................................................91 

         Retail Boundaries, Cores and Frontages .................................................................................93 

         Key Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ....................................................................97

Colliers CRE                         Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                         Department of Environment, Planning Service

                                                                                ____________________   _________




APPENDICES

         Appendix 1    The Operational Specification (Extract)


         Appendix 2    Commissioner’s Report on Public Inquiry into Craigavon Local
                       Plan (Extract)


         Appendix 3    Schedule of Consultations Undertaken


         Appendix 4    Household Telephone Survey
         Appendix 4A   Survey Methodology and Sampling
         Appendix 4B   Key Results
         Appendix 4C   Copy of Survey Questionnaire


         Appendix 5    Shopper Survey
         Appendix 5A   Survey Methodology and Sample
         Appendix 5B   Key Results
         Appendix 5C   Copy of Survey Questionnaire

         Appendix 6    Retailer Survey
         Appendix 6A   Survey Methodology and Sample
         Appendix 6B   Copy of Covering Letter and Information Sheet
         Appendix 6C   Key Results
         Appendix 6D   Copy of Survey Questionnaire


         Appendix 7    Pedestrian Counts
         Appendix 7A   Survey Methodology
         Appendix 7B   Key Results


         Appendix 8    Photographs


         Appendix 9    Retail Floorspace Data for Craigavon District and Constituent
                       Towns / Settlements (Supplied by The Planning Service as of
                       January 2005 and up-dated to May 2005 by Colliers CRE)
Colliers CRE                        Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service

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         Appendix 10    Experian Business Strategies Data / Technical Data
         Appendix 10A   Survey Area Consumer Retail Expenditure Data
         Appendix 10B   Definition of Convenience and Comparison Goods
         Appendix 10C   Consumer Retail Expenditure Projections and Forecasts
         Appendix 10D   Non-Store Retail Expenditure Estimates
         Appendix 10E   Estimating and Projecting Sales Densities
         Appendix 10F   Methodology for Estimating Future Growth in Population by Zone


         Appendix 11    Retail Floorspace Commitments and Proposals within Craigavon
                        District
         Appendix 11A   Schedule of Retail Commitments in Craigavon District: Estimated
                        Retail Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by Category of Goods and
                        Centre
         Appendix 11B   Schedule of Retail Proposals in Craigavon District: Estimated Retail
                        Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by Category of Goods and Centre




                            This report has been prepared by
                                                 Colliers CRE                          Colliers CRE
                                          9 Marylebone Lane                        McKelvey House
                                                       London                   25 Wellington Place
                                                   W1U 1HL                         Belfast BT1 6GQ
                                           Tel: 020 7935 4499                     Tel: 02890 240500
                                          Fax: 020 7344 6984                     Fax: 02890 237278
Colliers CRE                            Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                            Department of Environment, Planning Service

                                                                                                 __________




GLOSSARY OF TERMS

 Catchment Area          The geographical area from which a centre attracts the majority of its
                         retail turnover.

 Core Catchment          Comprises the area (or zones) from which named centres or stores
                         attract the majority of generated retail expenditure (ie. 51% or more).

 Primary Catchment       Comprises the areas from which named centres or stores attract the
                         largest single flow of generated retail expenditure (note: this may be
                         less than 50%).

 Secondary Catchment     Comprises the remaining areas from which named centres or stores
                         attract 10% or more of generated retail expenditure.

 Tertiary Catchment      Comprises all remaining areas from which named centres or stores
                         attract 2% or more of generated retail expenditure.

 Comparison Goods        Consumer expenditure on non-food shopping.

 Convenience Goods       Consumer expenditure on food and grocery shopping.

 Expenditure Leakage     Proportion of retail expenditure generated within a centre’s (or store’s)
                         catchment area that is not spent within the centre (store).

 Expenditure Retention   The turnover of a centre (or store) expressed as a proportion of the total
                         amount of retail expenditure generated within its catchment area.

 Headroom Expenditure    The quantum of consumer expenditure that will be available within the
                         catchment areas of named centres to support additional retail
                         floorspace.

 Market Share            The proportion of generated retail expenditure in any area that is spent
                         at a particular centre or store.

 Retail Capacity (or     The amount of additional retail floorspace which will be supported in a
 quantitative need)      particular centre or area in the future given the growth in population
                         and consumer expenditure per head.
Colliers CRE                                              Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan: Retail Sector Study

June 2003                                                       Department of Environment, Planning Service





 Household Telephone      A telephone survey of households over a large area which provides
 Survey                   mainly quantitative data on shopping trip patterns and expenditure
                          flows for food and non-food shopping.

 Retailer Survey          A questionnaire survey of the managers / owners of retail shops within
                          a centre, providing data on a range of attitudinal and store performance
                          criteria.

 Shopper Survey           Face to face street interviews with shoppers in a centre, providing
                          mainly qualitative data on trip characteristics and attitudes towards the
                          centre.

 Pedestrian Flow Counts   Counts of the number of people passing by a range of points
                          throughout a centre, providing data on shopper numbers and their
                          variation spatially.
Colliers CRE                              Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                              Department of Environment, Planning Service





1.         INTRODUCTION
           	


           Terms of Reference


1.1	       Colliers CRE was instructed by The Department of the Environment, Planning
           Service in February, 2005 to carry out a study of retailing in Craigavon District in
           relation to the Craigavon Area Plan. The purpose of the study is to undertake an
           assessment of the potential need for additional shopping floorspace over the Plan
           period to 2010, to carry out town centre health checks and to bring forward
           recommendations in relation to primary retail cores, primary retail frontages and town
           centre boundaries.


1.2	       Craigavon District embraces the three towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown
           and their immediate rural hinterlands, an area with a population of around 81,000.
           The Craigavon Area Plan is being prepared within the context of Shaping our Future
           – Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland 20251. Its purpose is to guide
           and identify land use proposals and policies throughout the Plan area.


1.3	       The Operational Specification for this study (reproduced in full in Appendix 1) sets
           out the following main objectives:


               •	 To assess the potential need for additional shopping floorspace within
                   Craigavon District and its main centres over the Plan period up to 2010:
                         -      by different retail sectors (eg. convenience goods and comparison
                                goods);
                         -      to include the definition of the main town centre catchment areas
                                and an analysis of the in-flow, retention and leakage of retail
                                expenditure for each;
                         -	     to take into account any changes in expenditure, turnover and
                                trading patterns through to 2010 and 2015; and
                         -      to consider qualitative improvements, if any, that may be necessary
                                to the existing retail floorspace provision in the District.




1
    Published by the Department for Regional Development in September 2001.


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Colliers CRE                           Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                           Department of Environment, Planning Service





           •	 To carry out “health checks” for Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown town
                centres based on the following indicators:
                      -    accessibility
                      -    customer views
                      -    diversity of uses
                      -    environmental quality
                      -    pedestrian flow
                      -    retailer profile
                      -    existing composition and retailer demand
                      -    vacancy rates


                and, if available, 

                      -    prime rental values. 



                In addition, the health checks should take retailers views into account.


           •	 Lastly, in relation to the existing Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown town
                centres, put forward recommendations, as appropriate, in relation to primary
                retail frontage designations, primary retail core designations and town centre
                (boundary) designations, taking into account the need for additional retail
                floorspace over the Plan period.


1.4	   Reflecting the range of study objectives outlined above, it should be borne in mind
       that this report primarily provides a strategic assessment of retailing throughout the
       Craigavon area and does not directly address individual sites and / or development
       proposals.


       Background and Planning Context


1.5	   The Craigavon Area Plan 2010 has been prepared and has now been adopted (August
       2004) by the Department of Environment for Northern Ireland under the provisions of
       Part III of the Planning (Northern Ireland) Order 1991.


1.6	   Following the Public Inquiry into the Plan, the Planning Appeals Commission
       concluded that the Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown town centres should be redrawn



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Colliers CRE                              Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                              Department of Environment, Planning Service





           on the basis of the broad principles set out in paragraphs 4.04.17 to 4.04.25 of the
           Commissioner’s Report (reproduced in Appendix 2).


1.7	       The Department accepted the Commission’s recommendation that the boundaries for
           the three town centres should be redrawn and the Adoption Statement for the Plan
           commits the Department to carrying out a retail study to assist in this process.


1.8	       Existing shopping policies are contained in the Regional Development Strategy,
           Planning Policy Statement 5, “Retailing and Town Centres” and extant Area Plans.
           The Department for Regional Development (DRD) has commenced a review of PPS
           5 and a consultation draft is expected to be published shortly.


1.9	       In broad terms, current planning policy in Northern Ireland is as follows:


                •	 there is no justifiable need for any new regional out-of-town shopping
                    centres;


                •	 town centres are the preferred location for major comparison and mixed
                    retailing developments with a floorspace of over 1,000 sq m gross;


                •	 major proposals for comparison or mixed retailing in out of centre locations
                    will only be permitted if suitable town centre sites are not available and
                    where the development satisfies specific criteria1;


                •	 the ‘health’ of town centres will be taken into account in assessing the impact
                    of out of centre developments; and


                •	 the primary role of district and local centres is in the provision of locally
                    accessible convenience goods shopping and this will be retained and where
                    possible enhanced.




1
    The criteria are set out in paragraphs 39 and 57 of PPS 5.


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Colliers CRE                          Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                          Department of Environment, Planning Service





          Study Approach


1.10	     In carrying out this study we have had regard to existing regional strategy and policy
          documents, in particular:


               •	 The Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland 2025 Shopping Our
                   Future, which sets out a dynamic strategic planning framework for Northern
                   Ireland to guide physical development within the region until 2025 and
                   provides and overarching strategic framework for development plans;


               •	 Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 5, Retailing and Town Centres, which sets
                   out the shopping policies of the DoE for the whole of Northern Ireland. It
                   provides a broad regional policy context for the site specific policies and
                   proposals contained in development plans and directly influence decisions on
                   individual planning applications.


               and also the


               •	 Northern Ireland Retail Research Study1 which is informing the DRD’s
                   Review of PPS 5.


1.11	     We have also drawn on our wider expertise of retailing and experience gained in
          undertaking health checks and retail need / capacity studies in many other parts of the
          UK. Specifically, we have sought to combine experience in terms of:


               •	 Retail Research Consultancy
               •	 In and Out of Town Retail Agency and Development
               •	 Planning
               •	 Consumer / Market Research


          As such the study seeks to blend detailed research with relevant commercial
          expertise.




1
    Prepared by Roger Tym & Partners for The Department for Regional Development, February 2003.


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Colliers CRE                             Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                             Department of Environment, Planning Service





1.12	      Although some data was available prior to the commencement of this study, it soon
           became clear that a substantial body of new information was required in order to
           satisfactorily meet the objectives of the study in a robust manner. This new data falls
           into two broad categories as follows:


               •	 we undertook four different types of survey:


                          - a telephone survey of 1,500 households living throughout Craigavon
                            District and its shopping hinterland;


                          - a questionnaire survey of 750 shoppers within Craigavon, Lurgan
                            and Portadown town centres;


                          - a questionnaire survey of the managers / owners of 110 retail shops
                            within the same three town centres; and


                          - pedestrian flow counts at a series of points throughout each of the
                            three centres.


               •	 We have incorporated the very latest and most accurate statistics available in
                   respect of the following:


                          - retail floorspace of existing centres and shops throughout Craigavon
                            District1;


                          - consumer retail expenditure per head for small areas within
                            Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland2;


                          - 2001 Census-based populations by ward and projections of
                            population by District; and




1
    This data has been prepared by The DoE Planning Service.
2
    This data is derived from Experian Business Strategies.


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Colliers CRE                            Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                            Department of Environment, Planning Service





                          - major recent retail developments and retail floorspace in the
                            pipeline within Craigavon District1 (eg. retail planning approvals and
                            schemes pending).


1.13	      In practice, much of the survey data is used to inform our ‘health checks’ of the three
           Craigavon District town centres, whilst the technical statistics feed mainly into our
           quantitative assessment of retail need. It is important to note, for the avoidance of
           doubt, that this study adopts as a starting point the fact that Craigavon, Lurgan and
           Portadown are all classified as “town centres” in a planning context. Indeed, the
           Commissioner’s Report of the Public Inquiry into the Craigavon Area Plan 2010
           states that:


               •	 “the Plan should clearly identify the future role and function of each of the
                    three town centres which make up the Craigavon Urban Area”. (Paragraphs
                    4.04.20 (1) ), (our underlining).


1.14	      Running parallel with the survey work and the derivation and analysis of statistics,
           we have also undertaken a wide range of consultations with relevant individuals and
           organisations within Craigavon District. The list of consultees includes:


               •	 Craigavon District Council officers
               •	 Lurgan Forward
               •	 Portadown 2000
               •	 Lurgan Chamber of Trade
               •	 Portadown Chamber of Commerce
               •	 Lurgan and Portadown Town Centre Managers


1.15	      We gratefully acknowledge the co-operation of all organisations and individuals who
           have assisted in the preparation of this study. However, whilst we have had regard to
           the views expressed, this report reflects our own conclusions.




1
    This information has been provided by The DoE, Planning Service.


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Colliers CRE                         Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                         Department of Environment, Planning Service





        Structure of the Report


1.16	   Our report is in two volumes. Volume 1 (this volume) comprises the Consultants
        Report and specifically addresses our Terms of Reference. It also contains the
        Appendices, which include the results of all the surveys we have undertaken,
        supporting maps and photographs, and technical details relating to the statistics which
        we have used. Volume 2 comprises our detailed quantitative retail floorspace need
        tabulations (spreadsheets) with separate series addressing convenience goods and
        comparison goods.


1.17	   In terms of this volume (the main report), Section 2 describes the economic context to
        the study, the planning policy framework and the retail hierarchy within Northern
        Ireland. In addition we report on the main findings of our consultations with
        individuals and organisations and identify the key issues for the future of retailing
        within Craigavon District.


1.18	   In Section 3, we consider the present shopping hierarchy of Craigavon District and,
        drawing on the results of our household telephone survey, examine the current pattern
        of shopper behaviour for the main types of retail goods. Using this information we
        quantify the retail trading performance of Craigavon District as a whole and each of
        the three town centres.


1.19	   Section 4 contains our vitality and viability assessments of Craigavon, Lurgan and
        Portadown town centres (the ‘health checks’). Each centre is addressed individually
        using the indicators listed at paragraph 18 of PPS 5. Data derived from our shopper
        and retailer surveys and pedestrian flow counts play an important role here. The
        section ends with an overview of the qualitative need for new retail development in
        each town.


1.20	   In Section 5, we describe our approach to assessing the quantitative need for
        additional retail floorspace within Craigavon District. The sources of data are
        identified, the methodology of the ‘model’ is described and our key assumptions are
        explained.




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Colliers CRE                        Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service





1.21	   In Section 6 we look to the future and quantify the scope (or capacity) for additional
        convenience goods and comparison goods retail floorspace within Craigavon District
        and its three towns. This quantitative need assessment is carried out for the forecast
        years 2010 and 2015.


1.22	   In the light of our assessments of qualitative need (Section 4) and quantitative need
        (Sections 5 and 6), in the final Section 7 we present our recommendations to The
        Planning Service in respect of the need for additional retail floorspace provision
        within Craigavon District through to 2010 (the end date of the Plan) and to 2015. Our
        recommendations take into account, in broad terms, the existing planning pipeline of
        retail commitments and proposals and the physical capacity of centres, and Craigavon
        District as a whole, to accommodate the forecast retail floorspace requirements. In
        this final section, and in the light of the results of the quantitative retail floorspace
        need assessment, we also present our recommendations on primary retail frontage,
        primary retail core and town centre boundary designations for Craigavon, Lurgan and
        Portadown.




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Colliers CRE                            Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                            Department of Environment, Planning Service





2.         E
           	 CONOMIC OVERVIEW AND POLICY FRAMEWORK

           Regional Economic Context


2.1	       Northern Ireland is a relatively small and compact region with a 2001 Census
           population of 1,685,267, an increase of 107,431 from 1991. A radial pattern of main
           roads and railways converge on the City of Belfast, the regional capital, which is
           located at the heart of a metropolitan area of 646,550 people, 38% of the region’s
           total. Craigavon District is located to the south west of Belfast and comprises of the
           three towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown, which together with a small rural
           hinterland, has a population of some 81,000.


2.2	       Although a number of key economic indicators suggest that Northern Ireland is one
           of the smallest and poorest regions of the UK, for example:


               •	 the population of 1.7 million represents less than 3% of the UK total;
               •	 Gross Domestic Product (GNP) per head is only 80% of the UK average
                   (2000 figure);
               •	 average gross weekly earnings are just 88% of the UK average (2000 figure),
                   the lowest of any region;


           the affluence of the region in fact increased rapidly during the 1990s and is beginning
           to ‘catch up’ many other parts of the UK as demonstrated by:


               •	 the numbers of employed having risen faster than in any other UK region;
               •	 GDP per head having experienced the largest growth of any UK region; and
               •	 unemployment having fallen the most of any region.


2.3	       This recent ‘economic success’, underpinned at least in part by the Belfast Agreement
           (1998), has fuelled an expansion in the region’s retail economy. Between 1998 and
           2003, for example, an estimated 663,566 sq m gross of retail floorspace was granted
           planning permission in Northern Ireland1, whilst this total will have risen even higher
           during the past couple of years.


1
    Northern Ireland Retail Research Study, Roger Tym & Partners, February 2003 (Table 4.3).


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Colliers CRE                          Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                          Department of Environment, Planning Service





2.4	   Looking ahead, economic indicators suggest that the economy of Northern Ireland is
       likely to continue to grow (Table 2.1). GDP, for example, is forecast to increase by
       14.1% over the next five years in line with the UK average, whilst growth in
       employment and real consumers’ expenditure is forecast to outpace the national
       average. In general the economic make-up of Northern Ireland is becoming
       increasingly similar to other UK regions.


       Table 2.1 Northern Ireland Forecasts 2005/10: Key Economic Indicators


                                                   Growth 2005               Index
                Economic Indicator
                                                       to 2010       (UK Average = 100)
        Real consumers expenditure                     +14.6%                 107
        Total employment                                   +3.1%              124
        GDP                                            +14.1%                 100
        Real personal disposable income                +13.4%                  95
       Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, Spring 2005.



       Planning Policy Framework


2.5	   Retail development in Northern Ireland has been guided since June 1996 by PPS 5,
       the policies of which are outlined in broad terms in paragraph 1.9 of this report. More
       recently, in September 2001, ‘The Regional Development Strategy: Shaping Our
       Future’ (RDS) was adopted by the Northern Ireland Assembly and provides, for the
       first time, a regional policy context for the preparation of Area Plans for sub-regional
       and local areas.


2.6	   The purpose of the RDS is to guide the future development of Northern Ireland to
       2025. The vision is to create an outward-looking, dynamic and liveable region and to
       sustain a high quality of life for all.


2.7	   The pivotal component of the Strategy is the Spatial Development Strategy (SDS),
       which is designed to reinforce and strengthen the hubs, corridors and gateways to
       make the best use of key regional assets to accommodate the forecast economic
       growth. The SDS seeks to give a strategic focus to future development and achieve
       balanced growth within Northern Ireland.




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Colliers CRE                          Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                          Department of Environment, Planning Service





2.8	      This will involve the promotion of city and town centres “by ensuing that they should
          normally be the first choice for major new retail developments and confirming that
          there is no justifiable need for any new regional out of town shopping centres in
          Northern Ireland.”


2.9	      In short the SDS aims to achieve a balance of growth which will maintain a strong
          economic heart in the wider Belfast “travel to work” hinterland, while encouraging
          decentralised development at identified growth poles across the region. The SDS for
          Northern Ireland is illustrated in Figure 2.1 overleaf.


2.10	     The SDS defines the Craigavon urban area as a ‘main hub’ within a spatial
          framework for rural Northern Ireland. ‘Main hubs’ should offer a diversity of uses
          and be the “prime locations for retail, service, administrative, leisure and cultural
          facilities both for urban and rural communities”. These locations therefore have a
          strategic role to play in achieving regional balance across Northern Ireland. The SDS
          specifically recognises the “high growth potential” of Craigavon, “reflecting its role
          as the major industrial and service centre in mid-Ulster and its strategic location on
          the key transport corridors”. Nevertheless, the SDS states that it is important “to
          maintain a healthy and balanced interdependence of towns and their rural
          hinterlands”.


          Lurgan Development Framework1


2.11	     The Lurgan Development Framework is one of a series of Development Frameworks
          produced by Craigavon District Council. It has been prepared to assist in the overall
          physical and economic regeneration of the central area of Lurgan. Although a non-
          statutory document, the Development Framework has been prepared within the
          strategic context of the Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland, the
          Draft Craigavon Area Plan 2010 and also in accordance with the aims and objectives
          of Planning Policy Statement No. 5 Retailing and Town Centres (currently under
          review).


2.12	     The main retail / economic objectives (or benefits) set out in the Development
          Framework are as follows:

1
    Lurgan Development Framework, Final Report, June 2004.


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Colliers CRE                       Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                       Department of Environment, Planning Service





            •	 to increase footfall in the town centre;
            •	 to increase consumer and visitor expenditure in the town centre and to reduce
                the “leakage” of expenditure to competing centres;
            •	 to provide new and improved retail developments within the town centre and
                thereby increase employment opportunities in the retail sector; and
            •	 to develop a vibrant and vital evening economy.


2.13	   The Development Framework identified 10 separate proposed development quarters
        (or sub-areas) in central Lurgan, a number of which may be suitable for retail and
        other town centre uses. Craigavon District Council believe that the “vision” set out in
        the Development Framework may take a number of years to be realised and is likely
        to only be achieved through the co-operation, co-ordination and partnership of a
        range of organisations working with local landowners and private landlords.


        Portadown Development Framework


2.14	   The Portadown Development Framework has been prepared to assist with the
        physical and economic regeneration of Portadown. It is the product of a study
        commissioned by the Department for Social Development and has been prepared
        within the context of the Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland 2005
        and the Draft Craigavon Area Plan 2010.


2.15	   The over-riding objective of the Development Framework is to regenerate Portadown
        town centre through environmental improvements and to attract investment into the
        town centre. Key guidelines which inform the Development Framework are as
        follows:


            •	 to respect the existing street framework and the historical development of the
                town;
            •	 to link the town centre to Edenderry and to the riverfront;
            •	 to regenerate and enhance the riverfront;
            •	 to create key inter-related quality landscaped public open spaces and to
                enhance the status of Portadown Park by treating it as a valued part of the
                town centre;


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Colliers CRE                        Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service





            •	 to strengthen the town centre in order to increase its vitality and viability;
            •	 to separate destination traffic from through traffic;
            •	 to create development opportunity sites; and
            •	 to provide a framework which will permit phased and co-ordinated
                development of the town centre.


2.16	   The Development Framework therefore seeks to attract new investment into
        Portadown town centre, which along with environmental and infrastructure
        improvements should achieve a measure of regeneration, although it is recognised
        that any public sector funding must leverage in monies from the private sector.


        Retail Hierarchy and Market Overview


2.17	   The RDS sets out a settlement hierarchy, which is illustrated in Figure 2.2 overleaf.
        This defines the BMA and Londonderry (the regional centre for the North West) as
        major regional cities, below which there are a series of ‘main hubs’ such as Antrim,
        Ballymena and Newry (identified as growth poles) and ‘local hubs’. In addition, PPS
        5 identified Sprucefield as an out of town regional shopping centre, the only one in
        Northern Ireland.


2.18	   The Northern Ireland Retail Research Study produced a retail hierarchy based on a
        combination of five key indicators of a centres’ role in the retail hierarchy:


            •	 status in the RDS settlement hierarchy
            •	 population
            •	 Experian Goad Retail Rankings position
            •	 scale of retail floorspace
            •	 comparison goods market share.


2.19	   This hierarchy (Table 2.2 overleaf) identifies Belfast as a ‘very large’ centre
        followed by four ‘large’ centres, including Craigavon.




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November 2005                                             Department of Environment, Planning Service





       Table 2.2 Northern Ireland Retail Hierarchy


       Size Category       Centre

       Very Large          Belfast

       Large               Londonderry
                           Ballymena
                           Craigavon(1)
                           Lisburn

       Medium              Sprucefield
                           Armagh
                           Coleraine
                           Cookstown
                           Dungannon
                           Larne
                           Newry
                           Newtonards
                           Omagh
                           Strabane
                           Newtonabbey
                           Bangor

       Small               Antrim
                           Banbridge
                           Downpatrick
                           Enniskillen
                           Limavady
                           Ballycastle
                           Ballymoney
                           Magherafelt
                           Newcastle
                           Warrenpoint
                           Carrickfergus
                           Castlereagh
             (1)
       Note: Includes Craigavon, Portadown and Lurgan. 

       Source: The Northern Ireland Retail Research Study, February 2003. 





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2.20	   Unfortunately this hierarchy combines the three town centres of Craigavon, Lurgan
        and Portadown into a composite Craigavon ranking. In order to distinguish between
        the three towns, we use a ranking published by The Javelin Group. This is shown in
        Table 2.3 overleaf and is based on each centres Venuescore, which reflects the
        presence and importance of the multiple retailers trading in each centre (or venue).
        This system gives Portadown a rank of 10 within Northern Ireland (with a score of
        75), although this equates to only the 289th ranked centre in the UK. Craigavon and
        Lurgan are ranked 14th and 24th in Northern Ireland and, 425th and 761st in the UK
        respectively.


2.21	   In addition to the gradual development of the town centres, Northern Ireland has also
        experienced a significant amount of out of centre retail development. This has taken
        the form of:


            •   shopping centres
            •   retail warehouse parks
            •   stand alone food-based superstores


2.22	   In the early days of shopping centre development the centres were anchored mainly
        by food stores – initially indigenous companies, later the national multiples – but
        more recently there has been a trend of such stores moving out into stand alone
        locations, thus releasing space within the schemes for new comparison multiples and /
        or variety store retailers. All of this, of course, has tended to strengthen the attraction
        of out of centre retailing relative to that within the traditional town centres.


2.23 	 Since the Belfast Agreement in 1998 the level of interest from national multiple
        comparison retailers for representation within the Northern Ireland market has
        steadily grown. Arrivals include WH Smith, Next, JD Sports, River Island and Zara.
        In general, the retail market is now in a relatively healthy state with demand
        emanating from a much broader base representing all sectors of the retail market.
        Occupational demand for prime retail property consisting either of enclosed shopping
        centres, high streets or retail parks is reasonable with demand and supply being in
        equilibrium. Retailers’ property requirements are selective and most have limited
        capital expenditure budgets. There is no rush for floorspace and retailers are prepared
        to wait for the right unit.



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November 2005                                                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service




Table 2.3 Centres in Northern Ireland Ranked by VenueScore, 2005

                                                 Venue    Rank
                   Centre
                                                 Score (N.Ireland)
Belfast                                             234     1
Londonderry                                         137     2
Lisburn                                             123     3
Ballymena                                           122     4
Newry                                                92     5
Coleraine                                            89     6
Bangor                                               84     7
Antrim                                               76     8
Newtownards                                          75     9
Portadown                                            75     10
Enniskillen                                          69     11
Newtownabbey, Abbeycentre                            65     12
Glengormley                                          60     13
Craigavon                                            53     14
Bangor, Bloomfield Ret Park                          46     15
Belfast, Connswater S C                              44     16
Belfast, Forestside S C                              43     17
Omagh                                                38     18
Armagh                                               34     19
Cookstown                                            34     20
Belfast, Cregagh                                     33     21
Larne                                                33     22
Magherafelt                                          32     23
Belfast, Boucher Ret Park                            30     24
Lurgan                                               29     25
Belfast, Park Centre                                 28     26
Belfast, Windsor                                     28     27
Carrickfergus                                        28     28
Dungannon                                            28     29
Strabane                                             28     30
Banbridge                                            26     31
Ballymoney                                           24     32
Newry, The Quays                                     22     33
Belfast, Dunmurry                                    21     34
Lisburn, Sprucefield Ret Pk                          20     35
Downpatrick                                          19     36
Ballyclare                                           18     37
Belfast, Ardoyne                                     18     38
Londonderry, Lisnagelvin Ret Pk                      18     39
Belfast, Shankhill                                   17     40
Belfast, York Gate Ret Pk                            16     41
Limavady                                             16     42
Belfast, Fort William                                15     43
Belfast, Ormeau Road                                 15     44
Belfast, Falls                                       14     45
Belfast, Finaghy                                     14     46
Belfast, Strandtown                                  14     47
Belfast, Sydenham                                    14     48
Coleraine, Riverside Centre Ret Park                 14     49
Belfast, Antrim Road                                 13     50
Belfast, Westwood S C                                13     51
Dungannon, Coalisland                                13     52
Londonderry, Altnagelvin                             13     53
Newry, Dalmolly Ret Pk                               13     54
Newry, Kilkeel                                       13     55
Belfast, Dundonald                                   12     56
Holywood                                             12     57
Londonderry, Waterside                               12     58
Newcastle (Co Down)                                  11     59
Ballymena, Braidwater Ret Park                       10     60
Belfast, Newtownbreda                                10     61

Source: Venuescore 2005: UK Shopping Venue Rankings, Javelin Group, 2005.
Colliers CRE                       Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                       Department of Environment, Planning Service





2.24 	 In recent years there has been a significant transfer of the ownerships of shopping
        centre and retail park assets from traditional fund and institutional investors into
        private ownerships. The more entrepreneurial asset management methods adopted by
        these private individuals has already resulted in a number of schemes throughout
        Northern Ireland being more vigorously managed with extensions either planned or
        implemented.


        Consultations and Representations: Key Themes


2.25	   In preparing this study we have held consultations with a wide range of individuals
        and organisations within the Craigavon area (Appendix 3 provides a schedule of
        consultees). In addition, through the publication of The Craigavon Town Centre
        Boundaries and Retail Designations Plan 2010 (Bulletin) The Planning Service
        invited public submissions, representations and objections.


2.26	   A huge amount has therefore been written and spoken about the retail economies of
        Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown and that of Craigavon District as a whole.
        However, a number of reoccurring themes emerge from these consultations and
        representations. The key points are as follows:


            •	 there has been a perceived lack of retail investment in Craigavon District and
                in the town centres of Lurgan and Portadown in particular;


            •	 accordingly, there appears to be a lot of support for further retail development
                within the District, although there is a range of opinions as to the best
                locations / sites to accommodate this;


            •	 it is generally regarded that the town centres of Lurgan and Portadown are in
                need of regeneration;


            •	 it is accepted that vital and viable town centres normally offer a diversity of
                uses;


            •	 there is some concern regarding the existing and future roles of the three
                towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown;



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            •	 linked to the location of new retail investment is the definition of town centre
                boundaries and retail designations for Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown.


2.27	   In the remainder of this report, in responding to the requirements of the Operational
        Specification, we present a huge body of new data and analysis which inform on each
        of these key points.




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November 2005                                             Department of Environment, Planning Service





3.         S
           	 UB-REGIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS AND RETAIL
           TRADING PERFORMANCE

           Introduction


3.1	       The purpose of this section is to quantify shopper behaviour and to determine the
           present (May 2005) retail trading performance of:


               •	 Craigavon District as a whole;
               •	 The three towns within Craigavon District (ie. Craigavon, Lurgan and
                    Portadown).


           in relation to the two main broad categories of shopping:


               •	 convenience goods; and
               •	 comparison goods


3.2 	      The assessment draws mainly on the results of a household telephone survey which
           we carried out during May 2005 within Craigavon District and its shopping
           hinterland1. In addition, we refer to retail floorspace, population and consumer
           expenditure data. The source of this information and how it is used in the
           quantification of retail need is described in Section 5.


3.3	       We begin this section by quantifying the size and trading performance of the
           Craigavon District retail economy for convenience goods and comparison goods
           shopping. In particular, we define for each category of goods:


               •	 the ‘pool’ of available expenditure;
               •	 the amount of out-flow expenditure (leakage);
               •	 the proportion of retained expenditure;
               •	 the amount of in-flow expenditure; and
               •	 the total retail turnover of Craigavon District.



1
    Full details of the household survey are given in Appendix 4.


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3.4	   We then undertake a more detailed analysis of shopper behaviour for Craigavon,
       Lurgan and Portadown. For each town we define (and map) the catchment areas for
       convenience goods and comparison goods. We also quantify (and map) the dominant
       towns (and / or stores) across Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland for each
       main goods category.


3.5	   Lastly, we examine the main characteristics of shopper behaviour within the
       household survey area.


       Survey Methodology and Catchment Area Definition


3.6	   In order to provide actual empirical evidence on shopping patterns within Craigavon
       District and the role and function of its towns, we have used the results of a
       household telephone survey. For this study we commissioned a survey of 1,500
       resident households in an area that encompassed all of Craigavon District and its
       shopping hinterland. Structured samples of households were drawn at random from
       16 zones across the survey area. Appendix 4 describes the survey methodology and
       provides a definition of our expenditure zones, summarises the main results and
       contains a copy of the questionnaire.


3.7	   The main objective of the household telephone survey was to obtain comprehensive
       information on consumer shopping trip patterns and expenditure flows for
       convenience goods (food) and comparison goods (non-food) shopping within the sub-
       region. Our approach permits the following important assessments to be carried out:


           •	 for any given town we are able to not only estimate its retail turnover, but
                also identify where these sales originate from across the sub-region;


           •	 for any given local area (or zone) we are able to not only estimate the amount
                of available expenditure, but also identify the volume and source of in-flow
                expenditure and the volume and destination of out flow expenditure.




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November 2005                                       Department of Environment, Planning Service





3.8	    Agreement on the survey methodology was reached with The Planning Service prior
        to commencement of the fieldwork. It was agreed that the survey would concentrate
        on households living within 16 zones, each defined in terms of wards. Seven of these
        zones cover Craigavon District and the remaining nine zones cover its shopping
        hinterland. These 16 zones are identified on the map in Figure 3.1 overleaf. The use
        of zones enables the analysis of flows of retail expenditure throughout the sub-region
        and permits the individual shopping catchments for different towns and broad
        categories of goods to be defined.


3.9	    For the Craigavon household survey, structured interviews were carried out, by
        telephone, with the person responsible for the main shop in a total of 1,500
        households to ascertain their actual shopping patterns and their views. The aim was to
        achieve around 94 interviews in each zone, which is an acceptable sample size for
        statistical purposes. Adopting what is standard practice, we opted for a consistent
        absolute sample in each zone, rather than one proportional to zone population. This is
        because the latter approach would have meant a significantly larger number of
        interviews overall to ensure a minimum absolute number of interviews in the less
        densely populated zones, which was not considered essential.


3.10	   By adopting a consistent number of interviews within the zones irrespective of the
        population size of each zone, we accordingly over-sample in some zones and under-
        sample in others, while maintaining the same overall sample size. At the analysis
        stage of the survey, the individual samples are then “weighted” to their appropriate
        representation within the survey population to produce an overall result which is
        representative of the survey area as a whole. Without the weighting, the less densely
        populated zones would have a disproportionately large effect on the overall survey
        results, contrary to their population size. The whole principle of weighting therefore
        allows the characteristics of less densely populated zones to be accurately represented
        without the unnecessary cost of a grossly inflated sample.


3.11 	 Within the survey area as a whole, we sought to determine the catchment areas of the
        towns in Craigavon District using survey data on expenditure patterns. Our analysis
        permits the core, primary, secondary and tertiary catchments (where they exist) to be
        determined for each town. For the purpose of this study we have adopted the
        following definitions:



                                              20

                                     Fig. 3.1 Household Survey Area



                                                                                                                                 M2


                                                                                                                              Belfast
                                                                                                                              Belfast
                                                                            Lough Neagh




                                                                                              6            8
                                                    15                                                          Lisburn
                                                                                                                Lisburn
                                   Dungannon
                                   Dungannon

                                                                                  3                            M1
                                                              M1                                                          9
                                                                                       Lurgan
                                                                                       Lurgan
                        16                                         1          Craigavon
                                                                              Craigavon    5
                                                                                          4
                                                                       Portadown
                                                                       Portadown
                                                         13                                       7

                                                                              2

                                                Armagh
                                                Armagh                                        Banbridge
                                                                                              Banbridge

                                                                                                      10            11
                                                                       12

Household Survey Zone                          14
1) Maghery
2) Portadown
3) Bann Valley          Monaghan
                        Monaghan
4) Craigavon
5) Lurgan
6) Magheralin
7) Waringstown
8) Lisburn West
9) Lisburn East                                                                           Newry
                                                                                          Newry
10) Banbridge West
11) Banbridge East
12) Armagh East
13) Armagh North
14) Armagh West
15) Dungannon
16) Dungannon East
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November 2005                                         Department of Environment, Planning Service





        -	      core catchment: comprising those zones from which a town attracts the
                majority of generated expenditure (ie. 51% or more);


        -	      primary catchment: comprises those zones from which a town attracts the
                largest single flow of generated expenditure (this may be less than 50%);


        -	      secondary catchment: comprises those remaining zones from which a town
                attracts 10% or more of generated expenditure;


        -	      tertiary catchment: comprises all remaining zones from which a town
                attracts 2% or more of generated expenditure.


3.12 	 Beyond the tertiary catchment, the full results show that certain towns may attract
        even smaller amounts of expenditure from additional zones. Such expenditure flows
        will typically account for very low proportions of overall centre turnover and can, for
        most analytical purposes, be ignored. We have therefore excluded these zones from
        our definition of a catchment area in this section, although such in-flows are taken
        into account in the quantitative retail need assessment later in this report.


        Assessment of the Craigavon District Retail Economy as a Whole


3.13	   Using the results of the household survey we now consider the retail trading
        characteristics of the Craigavon District retail economy. In particular, we are able to
        determine the volume of consumer retail expenditure in-flows and out-flows to and
        from Craigavon District. This analysis has been undertaken separately for comparison
        goods and for convenience goods.


3.14	   By relating the scale of these expenditure in-flows and out-flows to the known ‘pools’
        of available expenditure generated within Craigavon District, we are able to estimate
        the total retail turnover of the District for each of the main goods categories. In
        addition, by expressing turnover as a proportion of available expenditure, the levels
        of expenditure ‘retention’ can be estimated for Craigavon District.




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3.15	   In relation to comparison goods (Figure 3.2 overleaf), we estimate that Craigavon
        District is currently attracting an in-flow of £95 million, but that some £37 million
        leaks out to competitor centres in other areas. Therefore, the District is, as one may
        expect, a net importer of £58 million of comparison goods spend annually. These
        figures indicate that Craigavon District currently retains around 80% of available
        comparison goods expenditure and has an estimated annual comparison goods
        turnover of some £245 million.


3.16	   The pattern of expenditure flows for convenience goods is summarised in Figure 3.3
        overleaf. We estimate an in-flow of £35 million and an out-flow of £13 million,
        which indicates Craigavon is a net importer of £22 million of convenience goods
        spend annually. These figures confirm that Craigavon District currently retains 90%
        of available convenience goods spend annually, a higher proportion than for
        comparison goods. Our convenience retail turnover estimate for Craigavon District is
        £152 million.


3.17	   Combining the two goods categories indicates that Craigavon District has a total
        retail turnover of £397 million, of which 62% is in comparison goods and the
        remaining 38% in convenience goods. Figure 3.4 summarises the split between the
        two categories of goods. Overall, 84% of the total retail expenditure generated by
        Craigavon District residents is spent within the area, whilst 16% leaks out to
        competitor centres.


        Figure 3.4 Craigavon District Retail Turnover Disaggregated by Category of
        Goods




                        38%                   Comparison Goods
                                              Convenience Goods

                              62%




                                              22

Fig 3.2
CRAIGAVON DISTRICT:
RETAIL TRADING CHARACTERISTICS: COMPARISON GOODS, 2005



                            CRAIGAVON DISTRICT


                        Available Expenditure      £187m
          £95m                                              £37m
                        - Out-flow Expenditure     £ 37m
                        = Retained Expenditure     £150m
          In-flow                                          Out-flow
                        + In-flow Expenditure      £ 95m


                               = Retail Turnover
                                     £245m
Fig 3.3
CRAIGAVON DISTRICT:
RETAIL TRADING CHARACTERISTICS: CONVENIENCE GOODS, 2005



                            CRAIGAVON DISTRICT


                        Available Expenditure      £130m
          £35m                                              £13m
                        - Out-flow Expenditure     £ 13m
                        = Retained Expenditure     £117m
          In-flow                                          Out-flow
                        + In-flow Expenditure      £ 35m


                               = Retail Turnover
                                     £152m
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November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service





3.18	   The household survey results in combination with population and expenditure per
        head data, also enables the origin of in-flow retail expenditure into Craigavon District
        to be quantified. Similarly, we are able to quantify the destination of retail
        expenditure that leaks out of the District to competitor centres. This assessment has
        been carried out for both comparison goods and convenience goods.


3.19	   Figure 3.5 overleaf summarises the in-flow / out-flow analysis for comparison
        goods. This chart shows that 92% of the comparison goods expenditure flowing into
        Craigavon District comes from the four adjoining Districts. Of these the principal
        ‘source’ is Armagh District from which 43% of the monies originate (c. £40 million).
        Banbridge and Dungannon Districts’ each contribute around £20 million (20%),
        whilst only £4 million (4%) flows in from Lisburn District. The pattern is very
        different, however, when the distribution of out-flow expenditure is analysed. Now
        Armagh and Dungannon Districts’ barely feature, whilst Banbridge attracts only c. £5
        million (13%). Lisburn District is the principal destination of monies leaking out of
        Craigavon District, capturing 49% of the total (c. £18 million); clearly the City of
        Lisburn and the Sprucefield Regional Shopping Centre are attractive to many
        shoppers. In addition, 35% of the expenditure leakage from Craigavon District flows
        to other areas, most notably Belfast District which attracts around c. £11.5 million
        (32%). Of this total, £8.6 million is spent in Belfast City Centre, which equates to
        almost a quarter of the total annual comparison goods leakage from Craigavon
        District.


3.20	   A similar in-flow / out-flow assessment for Craigavon District for convenience goods
        shopping is set out in Figure 3.6 overleaf. In relation to expenditure flowing into
        Craigavon District, almost two-thirds originates from Armagh District (c. £23
        million). Around £7 million comes from Banbridge District (20%), whilst just £3
        million originates from each of Dungannon and Lisburn Districts’. Our assessment
        suggests there is no in-flow of expenditure into Craigavon District from beyond these
        four areas. In terms of out-flow of convenience goods spend, as stated earlier, the
        amount of leakage is low. Almost negligible sums flow out to Armagh and
        Dungannon Districts’, whilst Lisburn District attracts £2 million annually (15% of the
        total). The principal destinations are Banbridge District (c. £5 million), which
        accounts for 35% of the entire out-flow, and all other areas (47%). Much of the




                                              23

Fig 3.5 	     Origin of In-Flow Expenditure and Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure to / from
              Craigavon District: Comparison Goods


                                             Source of In-Flow Expenditure

  Armagh District       Banbridge District        Dungannon District          Lisburn District   Other Areas
     (£40.1m)               (£21.0m)                   (£20.0m)                  (£4.3m)           (£9.5m)
      (42%)                  (22%)                       (21%)                     (5%)            (10%)




                                                       Craigavon
                                                        District




  Armagh District       Banbridge District        Dungannon District          Lisburn District   Other Areas
     (£0.3m)                 (£4.9m)                    (£0.4m)                  (£18.0m)         (£12.9m)
       (1%)                  (13%)                       (1%)                     (49%)            (36%)

                                        Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure
Fig 3.6 	     Origin of In-Flow Expenditure and Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure to / from
              Craigavon District: Convenience Goods


                                             Source of In-Flow Expenditure

  Armagh District       Banbridge District        Dungannon District         Lisburn District   Other Areas
     (£22.5m)                (£7.2m)                   (£2.9m)                  (£3.1m)           (£0.0m)
      (63%)                  (20%)                       (8%)                     (9%)             (0%)




                                                      Craigavon
                                                        District




  Armagh District       Banbridge District        Dungannon District         Lisburn District   Other Areas
     (£0.4m)                 (£4.8m)                   (£0.0m)                  (£2.0m)          (£6.3m)
       (3%)                  (35%)                       (0%)                    (15%)            (47%)

                                       Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure
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        convenience good spend out-flow to the more distant centres is likely to be on the
        back of comparison goods shopping and work related trips.


        Town Catchment Areas


3.21 	 We now turn to defining the shopping catchment areas for each of the three towns in
        Craigavon District, namely Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. Using the results of
        the household survey (and the methodology set out at paragraph 3.11), we define
        separate catchments for convenience goods and comparison goods shopping.


        Comparison Goods Catchments


3.22 	 The extent of the catchment area of Craigavon for comparison goods shopping is
        shown in Figure 3.7 overleaf. Overall the trade penetration of the town, which is
        centred upon the Rushmere Shopping Centre, is lower than may have been expected.
        The survey evidence indicates that its trade draw is relatively extensive
        geographically (only zones 9 and 11 fall outside our catchment definition) but
        comparatively shallow in terms of market share. The map confirms that Craigavon
        has a core catchment comprising of just one zone (Zone 3) and a primary catchment
        also of a single zone (Zone 6). Thus the town fails to attract the majority of available
        spend from five of the seven zones which comprise Craigavon District. The town’s
        secondary catchment covers Zones 1, 2, 3, 5 and 7 within Craigavon District and
        Zones 10, 12, 13 and 15 beyond. Zones 8, 14 and 16 constitute Craigavon’s tertiary
        catchment.


3.23	   Lurgan is a smaller retail centre than Craigavon and this is reflected in its more
        concentrated catchment area for comparison goods shopping (Figure 3.8 overleaf).
        The town in fact is not sufficiently strong to generate a core catchment even locally
        (zone 5), whilst the outer boundary of its catchment area doesn’t extend beyond
        Craigavon District. In detail, Lurgan produces a primary catchment covering Zones 5
        and 7, and a secondary catchment embracing Zones 3, 4 and 6. Its tertiary catchment
        extends to the remaining two zones in Craigavon District (Zones 1 and 2).


3.24	   The comparison goods shopping catchment area of Portadown is shown in Figure
        3.9 overleaf. Of the three towns, Portadown’s trade penetration is strongest. For



                                              24

                       Fig. 3.7 Definition of Craigavon Catchment Area: Comparison Goods




                                                                                                                                        M2


                                                                                                                                     Belfast
                                                                                                                                     Belfast




                                                                            Lough Neagh

                                                                                                                  8
                                                         15                                                            Lisburn
                                                                                                                       Lisburn
                                        Dungannon
                                        Dungannon                                                     6

                                                                                                                      M1
                                                                   M1                                                            9
                                                                                           Lurgan
                                                                                          Lurgan
                     16                                                 1        Craigavon
                                                                                 Craigavon
                                                                                                  5
                                                                                              4
                                                                            Portadown
                                                                            Portadown
                                                              13                          3               7

                                                                                 2

                                                     Armagh
                                                     Armagh                                           Banbridge
                                                                                                      Banbridge

                                                                                                                           11
                                                                            12
                                                                                                          10
                                                    14


Catchment Area Key
                     Monaghan
                     Monaghan

Core

Primary
                                                                                              Newry
                                                                                              Newry
Secondary

Tertiary

Outside
                          Fig. 3.8 Definition of Lurgan Catchment Area: Comparison Goods




                                                                                                                                          M2


                                                                                                                                       Belfast
                                                                                                                                       Belfast




                                                                              Lough Neagh

                                                                                                                    8
                                                          15                                                             Lisburn
                                                                                                                         Lisburn
                                         Dungannon
                                         Dungannon                                                      6

                                                                                                                        M1
                                                                     M1                                                            9
                                                                                             Lurgan
                                                                                            Lurgan
                     16                                                   1        Craigavon
                                                                                   Craigavon
                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                4
                                                                              Portadown
                                                                              Portadown
                                                               13                           3               7

                                                                                   2

                                                      Armagh
                                                      Armagh                                            Banbridge
                                                                                                        Banbridge

                                                                                                                             11
                                                                              12
                                                                                                            10
                                                     14


Catchment Area Key
                     Monaghan
                     Monaghan

Core

Primary
                                                                                                Newry
                                                                                                Newry
Secondary

Tertiary

Outside
                          Fig. 3.9 Definition of Portadown Catchment Area: Comparison Goods




                                                                                                                                        M2


                                                                                                                                     Belfast
                                                                                                                                     Belfast




                                                                            Lough Neagh

                                                                                                                  8
                                                        15                                                             Lisburn
                                                                                                                       Lisburn
                                       Dungannon
                                       Dungannon                                                      6

                                                                                                                      M1
                                                                   M1                                                            9
                                                                                           Lurgan
                                                                                          Lurgan
                     16                                                 1        Craigavon
                                                                                 Craigavon
                                                                                                  5
                                                                                              4
                                                                            Portadown
                                                                            Portadown
                                                             13                           3               7

                                                                                 2

                                                    Armagh
                                                    Armagh                                            Banbridge
                                                                                                      Banbridge

                                                                                                                           11
                                                                            12
                                                                                                          10
                                                   14


Catchment Area Key
                     Monaghan
                     Monaghan

Core

Primary
                                                                                              Newry
                                                                                              Newry
Secondary

Tertiary

Outside
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           example, it captures the majority of available spend in Zones 1 and 2, which therefore
           forms its core catchment, whilst three adjoining zones (3, 12 and 13) comprise
           Portadown’s primary catchment from where it attracts the majority of available
           expenditure. A further two zones (10 and 15) fall within the town’s secondary
           catchment and six more zones (4, 5, 6, 7, 14 and 16) constitute its tertiary catchment.
           Overall, only three zones in our survey area fall outside Portadown’s catchment (8, 9
           and 11), whilst the town appears quite successful in capturing trips from people living
           to the west and south, well beyond the Craigavon District boundary.


           Convenience Goods Catchments


3.25 	     The extent of the catchment area of Craigavon for convenience goods shopping is set
           out in Figure 3.10 overleaf. Unlike for comparison goods, the town’s catchment is
           almost entirely confined within Craigavon District with only Zones 12 and 15 outside
           being categorised as tertiary catchment. Clearly the more localised nature of food
           shopping trips combined with the wider choice of intervening opportunities has
           limited Craigavon’s geographical reach. Inside Craigavon District, Craigavon
           generates a single core catchment in Zone 6, from which it attracts a majority share of
           available spend, whilst the remaining six zones all fall within its secondary catchment
           area.


3.26	      Lurgan is almost double the size of Craigavon in terms of its convenience goods
           retail offer1 and this is reflected in the extent of its catchment area, which is shown in
           Figure 3.11 overleaf. The town is strong enough to generate a core catchment in
           Zone 6 and a primary catchment covering Zone 5. In addition, its secondary
           catchment embraces Zones 4 and 7, whilst its tertiary catchment extends to Zone 8
           outside of Craigavon District. The town’s food retail offer is not, however,
           sufficiently attractive to draw in trade from Zones 1 to 3 which constitute the western
           half of Craigavon District.




3.27	      The convenience goods shopping catchment area for Portadown is shown in Figure
           3.12 overleaf. The extent of the catchment reflects the quantum of available
           convenience goods floorspace which is the largest of the three towns. Portadown

1
    See Tables 4.1 and 4.3 in Section 4.


                                                     25

                       Fig. 3.10 Definition of Craigavon Catchment Area: Convenience Goods




                                                                                                                                         M2


                                                                                                                                      Belfast
                                                                                                                                      Belfast




                                                                             Lough Neagh
                                                                                                                   8
                                                         15                                            6                Lisburn
                                                                                                                        Lisburn
                                        Dungannon
                                        Dungannon


                                                                    M1                                                 M1         9
                                                                                           Lurgan
                                                                                            Lurgan
                     16                                                  1        Craigavon
                                                                                  Craigavon
                                                                                                   5
                                                                                               4
                                                                             Portadown
                                                                             Portadown
                                                              13                           3               7

                                                                                  2


                                                     Armagh
                                                     Armagh                                            Banbridge
                                                                                                       Banbridge
                                                                                                                            11
                                                                             12
                                                                                                           10
                                                    14


Catchment Area Key
                     Monaghan
                     Monaghan

Core

Primary
                                                                                               Newry
                                                                                               Newry
Secondary

Tertiary

Outside
                          Fig. 3.11 Definition of Lurgan Catchment Area: Convenience Goods




                                                                                                                                         M2


                                                                                                                                      Belfast
                                                                                                                                      Belfast




                                                                             Lough Neagh
                                                                                                                   8
                                                         15                                            6                Lisburn
                                                                                                                        Lisburn
                                        Dungannon
                                        Dungannon


                                                                    M1                                                 M1         9
                                                                                           Lurgan
                                                                                            Lurgan
                     16                                                  1        Craigavon
                                                                                  Craigavon
                                                                                                   5
                                                                                               4
                                                                             Portadown
                                                                             Portadown
                                                              13                           3               7

                                                                                  2


                                                     Armagh
                                                     Armagh                                            Banbridge
                                                                                                       Banbridge
                                                                                                                            11
                                                                             12
                                                                                                           10
                                                    14


Catchment Area Key
                     Monaghan
                     Monaghan

Core

Primary
                                                                                               Newry
                                                                                               Newry
Secondary

Tertiary

Outside
                       Fig. 3.12 Definition of Portadown Catchment Area: Convenience Goods




                                                                                                                                        M2


                                                                                                                                     Belfast
                                                                                                                                     Belfast




                                                                            Lough Neagh

                                                                                                                  8
                                                         15                                           6                Lisburn
                                                                                                                       Lisburn
                                        Dungannon
                                        Dungannon


                                                                   M1                                                 M1         9
                                                                                          Lurgan
                                                                                           Lurgan
                     16                                                 1        Craigavon
                                                                                 Craigavon
                                                                                                  5
                                                                                              4
                                                                            Portadown
                                                                            Portadown
                                                              13                          3               7

                                                                                 2


                                                     Armagh
                                                     Armagh                                           Banbridge
                                                                                                      Banbridge

                                                                                                                           11
                                                                            12
                                                                                                          10
                                                    14


Catchment Area Key
                     Monaghan
                     Monaghan

Core

Primary
                                                                                              Newry
                                                                                              Newry
Secondary

Tertiary

Outside
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         generates a core catchment across Zones 1 and 2, whilst its primary catchment covers
         Zones 3 and 13, the latter outside of Craigavon District. Thus the town is attracting
         the largest share of food spend from four zones. In addition, its secondary catchment
         embraces another three zones (10, 12 and 14), and its tertiary catchment a further five
         zones (4, 5, 7, 15 and 16). Indeed, only 3 zones within the survey area fall outside of
         Portadown’s convenience goods catchment area.


         Town Dominance


3.28 	   Towns or retail locations which capture the largest single share of available consumer
         retail expenditure within a zone we describe as being dominant within that area.
         Figures 3.13 and 3.14 show town dominance across our survey area for comparison
         goods and convenience goods shopping respectively. The maps provide a good visual
         indication of the relative strengths of towns across the sub-region for each category of
         goods.


3.29	    Eight towns have sufficiently strong comparison goods retail offers to dominate one
         or more zones across our survey area (Figure 3.13 overleaf). Within Craigavon
         District, Portadown dominates three zones, whilst Craigavon and Lurgan dominate
         two zones each. In geographical terms, Portadown is the most dominant town
         throughout the western half of the District, whilst Craigavon and Lurgan compete to
         dominate the eastern half of Craigavon District. This suggests that Craigavon (The
         Rushmere Shopping Centre) is more successful in capturing trade from Lurgan than
         Portadown.


3.30 	 Neither Lurgan or Craigavon dominate any zones outside of Craigavon District,
         whereas Portadown attracts sufficient trade from the south west to dominate Zones 12
         and 13, which cover around half of Armagh District. Armagh dominates the third
         zone in Armagh District (Zone 14), whilst Dungannon manages to dominate the two
         zones which constitute its own District (Zones 15 and 16). Lisburn similarly
         dominates its own District (Zones 8 and 9), whilst Banbridge District is split between
         Banbridge (Zone 10) and Newry (Zone 11).


3.31	    Figure 3.14 overleaf shows the dominance map for convenience goods shopping. It
         confirms that just seven towns dominate all 16 zones; unlike for comparison goods



                                               26

                                        Fig. 3.13 Dominance Map: Comparison Goods




                                                                                                                                           M2


                                                                                                                                        Belfast
                                                                                                                                        Belfast




                                                                               Lough Neagh
                                                                                                                     8
                                                                                                                          Lisburn
                                                                                                                          Lisburn
                                           Dungannon
                                           Dungannon        15                                           6


                                                                      M1                                                 M1         9
                                                                                              Lurgan
                                                                                             Lurgan
                             16                                            1        Craigavon
                                                                                    Craigavon
                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                 4
                                                                               Portadown
                                                                               Portadown

                                                                 13                          3               7

                                                                                    2

                                                        Armagh
                                                        Armagh                                           Banbridge
                                                                                                         Banbridge

                                                                                                                              11
                                                                               12
                                                                                                             10
                                                       14


                             Monaghan
                             Monaghan

   Comparison Goods

Portadown        Banbridge
                                                                                                 Newry
                                                                                                 Newry
Craigavon        Newry

Lurgan           Armagh

Lisburn          Dungannon
                                        Fig. 3.14 Dominance Map: Convenience Goods




                                                                                                                                           M2


                                                                                                                                        Belfast
                                                                                                                                        Belfast




                                                                               Lough Neagh
                                                                                                                     8
                                                            15                                                            Lisburn
                                                                                                                          Lisburn
                                           Dungannon
                                           Dungannon                                                     6


                                                                      M1                                                 M1         9
                                                                                             Lurgan
                                                                                              Lurgan
                             16                                            1        Craigavon
                                                                                    Craigavon
                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                 4
                                                                               Portadown
                                                                               Portadown
                                                                 13                          3               7

                                                                                    2

                                                        Armagh
                                                        Armagh                                           Banbridge
                                                                                                         Banbridge

                                                                                                                              11
                                                                               12
                                                                                                             10
                                                       14


                             Monaghan
                             Monaghan

  Convenience Goods

Portadown        Banbridge
                                                                                                 Newry
                                                                                                 Newry
Craigavon        Armagh

Lurgan           Dungannon

Lisburn
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         shopping Newry’s reach is more localised for food and therefore it doesn’t dominate
         any of the zones.


3.32	    Within Craigavon District, Portadown dominates Zones 1, 2 and 3, whilst Craigavon
         is limited to just Zone 4. Lurgan dominates two zones (5 and 6), whilst Zone 7 is
         dominated by Banbridge, a town located to the south of Craigavon District.
         Banbridge also dominates Zones 10 and 11 and is therefore a strong centre for
         convenience goods shopping. Lisburn dominates its own District (Zones 8 and 9) as
         does Dungannon (Zones 15 and 16). Armagh manages to dominate two of the zones
         covering its District (Zones 12 and 14), but Portadown’s influence extends beyond
         the Craigavon District boundary sufficiently for it to dominate Zone 13.


         Characteristics of Shopper Behaviour


         Non-bulky Comparison Goods Shopping


3.33	    Our Craigavon household telephone survey1 confirms that non-bulky comparison
         goods shopping is undertaken relatively infrequently by survey area residents. On
         average more than half of households undertake their main trips monthly or less
         often.


3.34 	 For the survey as a whole, 53% of households choose their main centre because it is
         convenient and close to home. This reason is the most important criteria in relation to
         all three towns in Craigavon District. Around one-third of people, however, choose
         Craigavon (The Rushmere Shopping Centre) as their main centre because it offers a
         good choice of shops; although this criteria falls in importance for Portadown (18%)
         and Lurgan (just 9%).


3.35	    Around 83% of households within the survey area use a private car to undertake their
         main non-bulky comparison goods shopping (68% as a driver and 15% as a
         passenger). In comparison just 9% travel by bus, 6% walk and 1% use a taxi. Of the
         towns’ in Craigavon District, Craigavon is most reliant on the car with 91% of trips
         using this mode of transport, whilst Lurgan is least dependent (65%).


1
 The text refers to the results of the household telephone survey undertaken as part of this study (the
Craigavon Household Survey). The survey area covers Zones 1 to 16 as shown in Figure 3.1.


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        Bulky Comparison Goods Shopping


3.36	   Around 90% of survey area households visit their main centre for bulky comparison
        goods shopping monthly or less often. This compares to 56% for non-bulky
        comparison goods, indicating that shopping for bulky items – as one may expect – is
        undertaken less frequently.


3.37	   As for non-bulky comparison goods shopping, convenience of location is the most
        important reason for choosing which centre to visit. At 60% of households, the
        proportion is a little higher than for non-bulky comparison goods shopping. A good
        choice of goods / stores is again the second ranked criteria.


3.38	   Overall, for our survey area, 92% of main trips for bulky comparison goods shopping
        are undertaken by car, a higher proportion than for non-bulky comparison goods.
        Most of the remaining journeys are made by bus.


        Convenience Goods Shopping


3.39	   Around 62% of convenience goods main shopping trips take place during the week
        (Monday through to Friday) with 52% being carried out during the day and 10% in
        the evenings. In comparison only 10% are undertaken at weekends, whilst 29% of
        households vary their pattern of main food shopping.


3.40	   The location of a store close to home is the main reason influencing the choice of
        main food shopping destination in 60% of households. A wide choice of products
        available is the second ranked reason, but this scored only 11%. Significantly free /
        ease of parking is mentioned by just 4% of households. The importance of
        convenience of location is reflected in the fact that 64% of main food shopping trip
        journeys take (on average) 10 minutes or less, while the corresponding figures for
        non-bulky and bulky comparison goods are around 40%.


3.41	   The most common frequency of carrying out a main food shop is once a week (56%
        of households), while an additional 35% undertake such trips even more frequently.
        Shopping for convenience goods is therefore undertaken much more often than for
        non-bulky or bulky comparison goods.



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3.42	   Around 92% of survey area residents use a private car for their main food shopping
        (20% as driver), whilst 6% travel by bus, 5% walk and 2% use a taxi.


3.43	   On average, some 23% of households in our survey link their main food shopping trip
        with another form of shopping. The food stores which generate the highest levels of
        linked trips are those located within city / town centres, particularly those inside
        covered shopping centres; for example, almost half of all food shoppers at the
        Sainsbury’s in the Rushmere Centre carry out other forms of shopping on the same
        trip, whilst the figure for out of centre stores drops to only 10% or less. The types of
        shop / service visited most frequently on a linked trip are the chemist (in 41% of
        cases), the post office (34%), fashion shops (32%) and financial outlets (31%).




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4. 	     VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF TOWN CENTRES

         The Role and Requirements of PPS 5


4.1	     PPS 5 has been prepared by the Department of the Environment for Northern
         Ireland:-


         •	 “to formulate and co-ordinate policy for securing the orderly and consistent
            development of land and the planning of that development.” (paragraph 1)


4.2	     It sets out the Department’s policy for town centres and retail developments for all
         of Northern Ireland. The principal policy objectives are as follows:-


         •	 “to sustain and enhance the vitality and viability of town centres;


         •	 to focus development, especially retail development, in locations where the
            proximity of business facilitates competition from which all consumers are able
            to benefit and maximises the opportunity to use means of transport other than
            the car;


         •	 to maintain an efficient, competitive and innovative retail sector; and


         •	 to ensure the availability of a wide range of shops, employment services and
            facilities to which people have easy access by a choice of means of transport.”
            (paragraph 5)


4.3	     PPS 5 states that the government:-


         •	 “is committed to protecting the vitality and viability of existing town centres”
            (paragraph 15)


       whilst it is also recognised that smaller town centres may be particularly vulnerable to
       the impact of out-of-centre retail development.




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4.4	     An     important    requirement    to   ensure    the   appropriate    effectiveness   and
         implementation of this policy guidance is that the vitality and viability of town
         centres are assessed and PPS 5 states that this is best undertaken as part of the
         preparation of development plans. PPS 5 (at paragraph 18) helpfully defines vitality
         and viability as follows:-


         •	 Vitality – is a measure of how busy a centre is


         •	 Viability – is a measure of its capacity to attract ongoing investment for
              maintenance, improvement and adaptation to changing needs.


        Approach to Measuring Vitality and Viability


4.5	     In practice, measuring the vitality and viability of a town centre involves not just
         one indicator but a series of them. An assessment involving a combination of
         indicators may be termed a “health check” and can provide a view of town centre
         performance. PPS 5 sets out the indicators which should be used to carry out town
         centre health checks in Northern Ireland. These are as follows:-


         •	 accessibility: the ease and convenience of means of travel, including the
              frequency, penetration and quality of public transport services, the quality,
              quantity, location and type of car parking, and the quality of provision for people
              with a mobility handicap, pedestrians and cyclists;


         •	 customer views: surveys of customers’ views;


         •	 diversity of uses: amount and location of floorspace for different uses and how
              this is changing;


         •	 environmental quality of the centre;


         •	 pedestrian flow: the number and movement of people on the streets, in different
              locations, at different times of the day or evening and over a period of time;




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         •	 retailer profile: the existing composition, the retailer demand and other
            potential changes;


         •	 retailers’ views: surveys of the views of existing town centre retailers;


         •	 shop rents: pattern of movement in that part of the town centre with the highest
            rents; and


         •	 vacancy rates: particularly the proportion of vacant street level floorspace in
            primary shopping areas.


4.6	     In this section, we present our “health checks” of all three town centres in
         Craigavon Borough (ie. Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown). Centres are assessed
         individually and for each we adopt a structure which follows the list of indicators
         recommended by PPS 5.


4.7	     The health check assessments described below represent the culmination of a
         number of distinct strands of work. In particular, we have:-


         •	 visited each of the centres and directly observed their environments, retail offers
            and trading dynamics;


         •	 reviewed and assimilated, where relevant, existing published reports, plans and
            data;


         •	 incorporated a commercial / market view of retailer demand and associated
            issues,


            and, most importantly,


         •	 undertaken a range of surveys to generate new information on the trading
            characteristics and dynamics of each centre and the attitudes of (visiting)
            consumers and (occupying) retailers.




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4.8	     As well as the household telephone survey, which has already been described and
         analysed in Section 3, we undertook three further types of survey to underpin the
         health checks:-


         •	 a survey of shoppers in each of the three town centres – 750 interviews were
            successfully carried out. (Full details of the survey and results are given in
            Appendix 5.)


         •	 a survey of retailers in each of the three centres – completed questionnaires
            were received from 110 shop owners / managers. (Full details of the survey and
            results are given in Appendix 6).


         •	 counts of pedestrian flows were undertaken at a range of points within each of
            the three town centres. (Full details of the counts and results are given in
            Appendix 7).


4.9	     We now present our health checks for each town centre in turn. Photographs
         illustrating many of the key characteristics of each town are reproduced at
         Appendix 8. At the end of this section, we summarise the assessments and set out
         what we consider to be the qualitative need for additional retail floorspace in each
         town. However, it should be borne in mind that there is a material amount of retail
         floorspace within Craigavon District that is located outside of the town centres; for
         example, in the neighbourhood settlements within the towns of Craigavon, Lurgan
         and Portadown, and also a number of other small rural settlements within the
         District. The existing retail floorspace stock data provided by The Planning Service
         (reproduced in Appendix 9A) is comprehensive and includes all these retail
         location categories.


         Craigavon Town Centre


        Accessibility


4.10	    Visitors to the Rushmere Shopping Centre use a range of different means of
         transport to access it. The car is the primary mode of transport with 73% of
         respondents using it to travel to the centre, of which 54% are drivers and 19%



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             passengers. To accommodate these trips there are around 1,800 free car parking
             spaces at the Rushmere Shopping Centre that are easily accessed from the M1.
             Other important modes of transport are the bus (16%) and walking (7%).


4.11	        Shoppers do not think that the car park facilities or traffic congestion levels are
             areas that need improving. This contrasts with the view of the retailers who would
             like to see an improvement in the car parking facilities at the centre. Availability of
             parking is an important issue for 32% of the retailers, with 36% stating that they felt
             the facilities had got worse in the last year. Traffic congestion is also highlighted by
             the retailers as an area of growing concern, with 25% rating it as very poor and 44%
             feeling that in the last year congestion has increased.


             Customer Views1


4.12	        Almost three-quarters of people visit the Rushmere Chopping Centre to shop, with a
             further 15% visiting just to browse. Around 90% of visitors make the journey from
             home, with 20% travelling over 15 miles to the centre. Two-thirds of people spend
             between 30 minutes and 1 hour 30 minutes at the centre.


4.13	        Buying conversion rates are high for nearly all kinds of comparison goods,
             especially non-bulky items like clothing and footwear. The centre also manages to
             retain a high level of purchases for leisure goods. This suggests the centre’s retail
             offer meets the expectations of most shoppers. Nevertheless, of those surveyed only
             47% said the centre was the main one they use for non-food shopping, with 10%
             saying Lurgan and a further 10% Portadown. The remaining one-third of shoppers
             mentioned a range of other centres including Belfast City Centre (7%). The spread
             in response suggests that there is a considerable overlap in town centre shopping
             catchments.


4.14	        On average visitors’ expenditure per party per trip is £51, £12 more than the survey
             mean of £39. Of this total 57% is spent on non-food items and of the remainder,
             35% is spent on food to take home. The dominance of expenditure on food, and
             particularly non-food items, is reflected in the popularity and perceived importance



1
    Detailed results of the shopper survey for Craigavon town centre are set out in Appendix 5B.


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         by shoppers of Debenhams and Tesco. The two stores were highlighted by 31% and
         23% of respondents respectively, as being the most important shops at the centre.


4.15	    The vast majority of shoppers feel that the Rushmere Shopping Centre’s retail offer,
         market position and layout are all satisfactory. Looking ahead, 13% of respondents
         said they would like to see a wider choice of shops in the centre, although a highly
         significant 75% couldn’t think of anything they would like to see improved. Indeed,
         78% of shoppers say they are happy with the centre as it is.


        Diversity of Uses


4.16	    Craigavon town as a whole has an estimated total retail floorspace (including retail
         services uses and voids) of 49,605 sq m net, which makes it smaller than both
         Lurgan (63,003 sq m net) and Portadown (89,559 sq m net).


4.17	    Table 4.1 below disaggregates this retail floorspace within Craigavon by main types
         of use. This confirms that 80% of the stock is devoted to comparison goods – the
         highest of the three towns – with 58% taken-up by non-bulky goods. Only 4% of the
         floorspace is occupied by retail services, only one-third of that in Portadown and
         just 25% of the Lurgan total. This reflects the nature of the shopping provision in
         Craigavon, being dominated by the Rushmere Shopping Centre.


         Table 4.1 Retail Floorspace in Craigavon (as at May 2005)


                  Type of Use             Floorspace (Sq M Net)        Col. %
          Convenience                              10,934                22
          Non-Bulky Comparison                     28,615                58
          Bulky Comparison                           6,888                14
          Retail Services                            1,863                4
          Vacant                                     1,305                3
          Total                                    49,605                100
         Source: The Planning Service, 2005



4.18	    The allocation of retail floorspace in Craigavon town centre is analysed in Table 4.2
         overleaf. This shows representation of the different use categories in terms of



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         numbers of units and floorspace compared to the UK average. This again confirms
         the significant under-representation of services. However, convenience and
         comparison shopping is relatively close to the national average. Vacancy is very
         high, but this is due to the timing of the Experian Goad survey; during the Autumn
         of 2004 there were many units in the (then) new extension waiting to be occupied.


         Table 4.2 Diversity of Uses: Craigavon Town Centre


                Type of Use              No. of Outlets              Floorspace (Sq M Gross)
                                  Index: UK Average = 100            Index: UK Average = 100
          Convenience                            56                               98
          Comparison                             119                             110
          Service                                16                                8
          Miscellaneous                          126                              10
          Vacant                                 303                             288
         Source: Experian Goad, September 2004



4.19	    The data in Table 4.2 is presented in Figure 4.1 overleaf. The map provides further
         information on the diversity of uses within Craigavon town centre. The key points
         are as follows:


           •	 the principal areas for comparison goods retailing are in the middle and
                 southern sections of the mall, including the new extension which is anchored
                 by Debenhams;


           •	 convenience goods shopping is concentrated upon the two major food
                 superstores of Sainsbury’s and Tesco; there are few other convenience goods
                 shops in the centre;


           •	 service uses are very few in number and dispersed around the centre; they
                 generally occupy small units;


           •	 voids are also minimal, similarly spread around the centre and generally
                 confined to small end of mall locations.




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        Environmental Quality


4.20	    The Rushmere Shopping Centre being an enclosed, actively managed centre, clearly
         offers shoppers an attractive, high quality shopping environment. This is borne out
         by our survey results. Moreover, retailers feel that the environmental quality of the
         centre is improving with 40% of them regarding it as quite good or very good.


         Pedestrian Flow


4.21	    Pedestrian flow counts have been undertaken at eight locations throughout The
         Rushmere Centre. The locations and a summary of the results are shown in Figure
         4.2 overleaf. Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Appendix 7B.


4.22	    The highest three day footfall is at 29-30 Market Lane (Count Point 3) with a two-
         way flow of 34,110. This is by far the highest peak flow in any of the three town
         centres, being 7,000 above that in Portadown. Flows are much higher within the
         covered shopping centre (50% of peak or above) than in the external retail area
         (30% of peak or less). Inside the centre flows are higher in the more established part
         of the mall than in the new extension adjoining Debenhams. Saturday is by a
         considerable margin the busiest day with total footfall 60% higher than a Friday and
         83% above a Wednesday.


         Retailer Profile


4.23	    Of the three towns, Craigavon offers consumers the best range of multiple retailers
         and also a sizeable Debenhams department store. Many traders find Craigavon (The
         Rushmere Shopping Centre) an attractive option because of the generous size and
         configuration of the shop units, the enclosed and secure nature of the mall and the
         plentiful free car parking available to customers. Our surveys show that more than
         80% of existing retailers rate the pitch of their shop and their standard of
         accommodation as very good or good. In terms of any future retail demand within
         Craigavon District we would expect Craigavon to feature strongly.




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            Retailer Views1


4.24	        Some 22% of shops responding to our survey are larger than 186 sq m (2,000 sq ft)
             in size. This is the highest proportion of large units within the three town centres
             and reflects the purpose built nature of The Rushmere Centre. The proportion of
             retailers which have refurbished their premises is in line with the survey average,
             whilst the percentage that have extended their store over the past 12 months is
             higher. Only one-quarter have extended their product range, however, against
             almost 40% from Lurgan and Portadown.


4.25	        Relatively few retailers had experienced higher than anticipated staff turnover
             during the previous 12 months or had to improve conditions of employment or
             increase wages more than expected.


4.26	        No retailers responding to our survey said they expected to cease trading over the
             coming 12 months – the lowest proportion of the three town centres. However, very
             few had plans to refurbish, extend salespace, increase their product range or employ
             more staff.


4.27	        The turnover performance of retailers in Craigavon town centre appears very
             healthy. On average, sales rose by 16% during the previous 12 months, the biggest
             percentage rise of the three town centres. Convenience and comparison retailers did
             equally well. Profitability was not as good, although the average increase was still
             9%. Significantly, it is stores occupying the larger units (186 sq m plus) that
             perform best in Craigavon town centre. Retailers are also optimistic about the future
             with 41% expecting their turnover to increase over the next 12 months with none
             anticipating a fall in sales.


4.28	        Existing retailers in Craigavon town centre are generally happy with the pitch of
             their shop and standard of accommodation, whilst there is also a significant amount
             of satisfaction with the town’s market position and layout. However, 43% of
             respondents feel Craigavon is too compact and congested. Most retailers in the
             centre consider the present numbers of vacant units and number of service uses are
             acceptable.

1
    Full results of the retailer survey for Craigavon town centre are set out in Appendix 6C


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4.29	    The overall positive impression of Craigavon as a retail location is borne out by the
         fact that 68% of retailers feel the town centre’s trading performance has improved
         over the past five years, whilst just 4% believe it has worsened (the balance of 28%
         think it is about the same). However, despite the positive trading environment,
         retailers give Craigavon a negative score against seven of 13 performance indicators
         (parking, rents and rates, traffic congestion, and entertainment and leisure facilities
         perform worse) and a positive score against six. The quality and number of places to
         eat and drink and entertainment / leisure facilities are considered to be improving, as
         is the quality and range of goods, although many other indicators are deemed to be
         getting worse.


4.30	    Tesco, Debenhams and Sainsbury’s are singled out as the principal existing anchor
         retailers in the town centre, whilst Next, Primark, and mens fashion and shoe shops
         have been identified as those stores which most retailers would like to see
         represented.


4.31	    Looking to the future, the need to improve safety and reduce crime / vandalism is
         the most important issue facing the town centre, while some 96% of retailers are
         supportive of adding to the amount of available retail floorspace to enable new
         retailers to locate in the centre.


         Shop Rents


4.32	    Prime rents in Craigavon town centre (the Rushmere Centre) are currently £753 per
         sq m (May 2005). They have remained at this same level for the past 12 months,
         whereas prime rents across Northern Ireland have risen, on average by 2.5%.
         Therefore, the new extension to the Rushmere Centre in late 2004 hasn’t lifted
         prime rental values to date; indeed the centre has under-performed against the
         regional average.


4.33	    Although coming on for double the prime rent of Lurgan and Portadown, values at
         Craigavon remain well below those at a number of other major centres across
         Northern Ireland; for example Ballymena and Coleraine (both £915 per sq m),
         Lisburn (£969 per sq m) and Newry (£1023 per sq m).




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             Vacancy Rates


4.34	        Data from The Planning Service confirms that there is 1,305 sq m net of vacant
             retail floorspace in Craigavon town as a whole (Table 4.1). This is by far the lowest
             total of the three towns. Clearly, most of the new space in the new 2004 extension to
             the Rushmere Centre has been taken up and only a handful of small units remain.
             As shown in Figure 4.1, many of the voids are in secondary, end of mall locations.


             Lurgan Town Centre


            Accessibility


4.35	        Although the car is the most popular mode of transport (58% of shoppers, including
             21% as passengers), it is not as dominant as in Craigavon (73%) or Portadown
             (78%). This may reflect the relative inaccessibility of the town centre for motorists;
             it is connected to the M1 via Lough Road which gets extremely congested and
             features a railway level crossing, which, we understand, is to become busier in the
             future. Consequently, other modes of transport such as walking (19%) and the bus
             (16%) are higher than the survey average (14% and 12% respectively). One
             contributing factor could be inadequate parking facilities, since 19% of respondents
             say they would like to see parking facilities improved in the town centre, whilst
             11% feel parking is the single facility they would like to see improved. There are
             currently around 830 free car spaces and 240 spaces that require payment in the
             town centre. Retailers also consider that the availability of parking and traffic
             congestion need improvement; 57% rate parking as poor, whilst 57% feel that traffic
             congestion is very poor, with 40% thinking that it is getting worse.


             Customer Views1


4.36	        Around 60% of people visit Lurgan town centre primarily to shop (the lowest
             proportion of the three towns) and 80% travel from home. One in 10 visit Lurgan
             after shopping elsewhere. Some 21% shop for two hours or more, a proportion
             similar to that of Portadown, but higher than Craigavon.



1
    Detailed results of the shopper survey for Lurgan town centre are set out in Appendix 5B.


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4.37	    Buying conversion rates for people who actually shop in the town centre are
         reasonable, confirming that the available retail offer meets most shoppers needs.
         However, only 9% of Lurgan’s shoppers choose the town centre as their main centre
         for non-food shopping, whilst 65% nominate Craigavon. This suggests that Lurgan
         shoppers have a realistic opinion of the town centre’s retail offer and tailor their
         shopping behaviour accordingly; doing their top-up shopping in the town (30% of
         shoppers visit daily or almost every day) and their higher order shopping at
         Craigavon.


4.38	    The average expenditure per party per trip in Lurgan town centre is only £27, the
         lowest of the three town centres. Of this total less than £10 per trip is spent on food,
         again indicating that much bulk food shopping is carried out elsewhere.


4.39	    A vast majority of shoppers feel the quality of the town centre’s retail offer is fine,
         whilst a small majority also consider the size of stores and layout are acceptable.
         However, a significant minority feel that there are too many small shops (38%) and
         the centre is too congested (37%). Looking ahead, a wider choice / variety of shops,
         better quality shops and more / better car parking are the principal improvements
         which shoppers would like to see.


         Diversity of Uses


4.40	    In total there is 63,002 sq m net of retail floorspace in Lurgan town as a whole,
         which makes it 27% larger than Craigavon, but only 70% the size of Portadown. In
         terms of convenience goods floorspace, Lurgan’s retail offer is double that of
         Craigavon and almost as high as Portadown’s.


4.41	    Table 4.3 overleaf disaggregates retail floorspace within Lurgan by main types of
         use. This confirms that 42% of the stock is devoted to comparison goods, with 28%
         taken up by non-bulky comparison goods. More than one-third of the floorspace is
         occupied by convenience uses, whilst a substantial 15% is occupied by retail
         services, the largest share of the three towns.




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         Table 4.3 Retail Floorspace in Lurgan (as at May 2005)


                  Type of Use                 Floorspace (Sq M Net)       Col. %
          Convenience                                   21,528               34
          Non-Bulky Comparison                          17,661               28
          Bulky Comparison                              8,721                14
          Retail Services                               9,754                15
          Vacant                                        5,338                8
          Total                                         63,002              100
         Source: The Planning Service, 2005



4.42	    The allocation of retail floorspace in Lurgan town centre is analysed further in
         Table 4.4. This sets out the representation of the different use categories in terms of
         units and floorspace compared to the UK average. This confirms that (in terms of
         floorspace) voids and miscellaneous uses are very over-represented, whilst
         comparison goods retailing in under-represented.


         Table 4.4 Diversity of Uses: Lurgan Town Centre


                  Type of Use                      No. of Outlets            Floorspace (Sq M Gross)
                                              (Index: UK Average=100)       (Index: UK Average = 100)
          Convenience                                     145                            119
          Comparison                                      78                              81
          Service                                         86                              98
          Miscellaneous                                   30                             166
          Vacant                                          215                            176
         Source: Experian Goad, September 2004



4.43	    The data in Table 4.4 is presented in Figure 4.3 overleaf. The map provides further
         information on the diversity of uses within Lurgan town centre. The main
         observations are as follows:


           •	 most of the principal comparison goods stores are located in Market Street,
                particularly on the north side;




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           •	 there are a relatively large number of small convenience goods shops
                dispersed throughout the town centre, although the three main food stores are
                all in Castle Lane;


           •	 service uses are fairly numerous and located throughout the town centre;
                however, particularly large concentrations occur in Church Place and North
                Street;


           •	 voids are similarly represented throughout the town centre, although
                relatively few are located in the principal retail frontages of Market Street.


         Environmental Quality


4.44	    The survey has highlighted a measure of dissatisfaction with the appearance of
         Lurgan town centre. Almost 60% of retailers rate the environment / appearance of
         the centre as quite poor or very poor, compared to less than 5% at Craigavon or
         Portadown. Moreover, a number of traders also consider that the environmental
         quality has deteriorated during the last year.


         Pedestrian Flow


4.45	    Pedestrian flow counts have been carried out at eight locations within Lurgan town
         centre. The locations and a summary of the results are shown in Figure 4.4 overleaf.
         Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Appendix 7B.


4.46	    The highest three day footfall is at 3 Market Street (Count Point 6) with a two-way
         flow of 20,970. This is the lowest peak flow in the three towns. It should be noted
         that Count Points 6, 7, and 8 encompass the full width of the street, whereas Count
         Points 1-5 are only half-widths. Flows are relatively healthy along Market Street
         between Church Place and its junction with Union Street, but tail off considerably
         beyond this. Wednesday has a higher footfall than Saturday. This suggests that on
         the main shopping day, consumers go elsewhere (mainly to Craigavon).




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             Retailer Profile


4.47	        Lurgan town as a whole comprises a relatively large total of retail floorspace, yet
             the retail core of the town centre is geographically concentrated with few multiple
             retailers present. In particular, there is a shortage of fashion traders which
             constitutes the main draw for many successful town centres. The small size and
             configuration of many units is a handicap, whilst the considerable width of the main
             street does little to concentrate retail activity and vitality. Looking ahead, we do not
             envisage a big demand from multiple retailers for representation in Lurgan.


            Retailer Views1


4.48	        According to our survey, two-thirds of retailers in Lurgan town centre are
             independents, whilst more than half have been established for six years or more.
             Around 26% of retailers had refurbished their shops during the previous 12 months
             (in line with Craigavon and Portadown) although just 3% had extended (the lowest
             of the three towns). About one-third had improved their product range, similar to the
             other towns. For the coming year, 23% expect to increase their product range, whilst
             9% and 14% intend to refurbish their shop and employ more staff respectively.
             Some 14% of stores responding to our survey said they intended to close down
             within the next year.


4.49	        On average, retailers in Lurgan achieved a sales decline of 13% over the past 12
             months (similar to Portadown), with independents and those occupying the smaller
             units doing the worst. In comparison, retailer profitability over the same period fell
             by an average of 10%, once again similar to Portadown. Looking forwards, retailers
             in Lurgan town centre remain relatively upbeat, with 29% expecting their turnover
             to rise with just 19% anticipating a fall.


4.50	        Although existing retailers in Lurgan are generally happy with their standard of
             shop accommodation and pitch, almost nine in 10 feel the market position of the
             town centre is ‘too downmarket’, whilst 86% think there are not enough large
             stores. Furthermore, 60% of retailers consider the town centre can get too



1
    Full results of the retailer survey for Lurgan town centre are set out in Appendix 6C


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         congested. In addition, 90% of retailers feel there are too many vacant units in the
         town centre, although the number of service uses is more acceptable.


4.51	    This general negative perception towards Lurgan as a retail location is borne out by
         the fact that 72% of retailers feel the trading performance of the town centre has
         declined over the past five years, whereas only 14% consider it has got stronger.
         Moreover, retailers give Lurgan negative scores against 11 of 13 performance
         indicators; only public transport services and the quality of goods achieve small
         positive ratings. All indicators except safety / security and places to eat and drink
         are felt to be getting worse.


4.52	    Tesco, Woolworths and Heaton’s department store are singled out as the three key
         anchor stores by retailers. Next, Primark, New Look, Peacocks, Topshop, River
         Island and Dunnes Stores are identified as the stores retailers would most like to see
         represented in the town centre.


4.53	    Looking ahead, retailers consider the need for more multiples and the reduction of
         traffic congestion are the most important issues facing the town. In support of this,
         almost 90% of retailers are in favour of additional floorspace being provided in
         Lurgan town centre.


         Shop Rents


4.54	    Prime rents in Lurgan town centre are presently £431 per sq m (May 2005) and have
         remained at this level for the past year. In comparison, average prime rents across
         Northern Ireland have risen by 2.5% over the last 12 months, suggesting some
         under-performance in Lurgan.


4.55	    Surprisingly however, given its much more limited retail offer, prime rents in
         Lurgan are the same as those in the much larger Portadown town centre. Other
         centres with similar rental values include Armagh and Downpatrick.




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            Vacancy Rates


4.56	        The Planning Service floorspace data confirms that there is currently 5,338 sq m net
             of vacant floorspace in Lurgan town as a whole (see Table 4.4). This is about three
             times the vacancy level of Craigavon, but only about half of the Portadown total.
             Our surveys indicate that the number of voids is too high and should be reduced.


             Portadown Town Centre


             Accessibility


4.57	        Portadown attracts a high level of car use; 78% of shoppers arrive by this mode of
             transport including 23% as car passengers, whilst 16% of shoppers walk to the town
             centre. To facilitate the high levels of car usage there are 754 free spaces in the town
             centre and 599 that carry a charge; more than 1300 in total. Nevertheless, the
             availability of parking is an issue for retailers with many considering the existing
             level of provision to be poor. Moreover, retailers and shoppers also express
             dissatisfaction at the level of congestion in the town centre.


             Customer Views1


4.58	        Around three-quarters of people visit Portadown town centre primarily to shop (with
             10% more browsing) and 83% travel from home to do so. A significant 51% shop
             for one hour 30 minutes or more, the highest proportion of the three towns. This
             reflects the relatively extensive retail offer available.


4.59	        Buying conversion rates are relatively high for most kinds of goods and services.
             The relatively strong performance of Portadown is borne out by the fact that no less
             than 59% of shoppers nominate the town as their main centre for non-food
             shopping; the highest proportion for the three towns, including Craigavon (45%).


4.60	        The average expenditure per party per trip in Portadown town centre is £37, of
             which around half is spent on convenience goods. This pattern of spend is reflected



1
    Detailed results of the shopper survey for Portadown town centre are set out in Appendix 5B.


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         by the fact that Tesco and Dunnes Store are highlighted by shoppers as the most
         important stores in the town centre.


4.61	    Portadown’s mix of stores, market position and layout are generally well regarded
         by shoppers, although 52% of shoppers said they would like to see a wider choice of
         shops. Looking to the future, the need for more and better quality stores are the
         facilities which are singled out by shoppers as being most important.


         Diversity of Uses


4.62	    Portadown town as a whole contains an estimated 89,559 sq m net of retail
         floorspace (including retail services and voids) which easily makes it the largest of
         the three towns in Craigavon District. It also has the most extensive convenience
         goods retail offer (narrowly beating Lurgan’s), and in relation to bulky comparison
         goods has 20% more floorspace than Lurgan and Craigavon combined. Only in
         terms of non-bulky comparison goods floorspace does it rank second to Craigavon.


4.63	    Table 4.5 disaggregates retail floorspace in Portadown by main types of use. This
         confirms that 28% of the town’s stock is devoted to convenience goods, whilst less
         than half of the total floorspace is taken-up by comparison goods, with only 27%
         trading in non-bulky goods. Retail services occupy 12% of the floorspace stock,
         much higher than at Craigavon but lower than Lurgan.


         Table 4.5 Retail Floorspace in Portadown (as at May 2005)


                  Type of Use              Floorspace (Sq M Net)           Col. %
          Convenience                               24,754                    28
          Non-bulky Comparison                      24,040                    27
          Bulky Comparison                          18,740                    21
          Retail Services                           10,456                    12
          Vacant                                    11,569                    13
          Total                                     89,559                   100
         Source: The Planning Service



4.64	    The allocation of retail floorspace in the town centre is analysed in Table 4.6
         overleaf. This provides details of the representation of the different use categories in


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         terms of units and floorspace compared to the UK average. This confirms that
         convenience goods shopping is slightly under-represented, whilst comparison goods
         shopping is marginally over-represented. Representation of retail services is also
         below average, whilst voids exceed the UK benchmark by a considerable margin.


         Table 4.6 Diversity of Uses: Portadown Town Centre


                 Type of Use                   No. of Outlets          Floorspace (Sq M Gross)
                                                   (Index: UK            (Index: UK Average =
                                               Average=100)                        100)
           Convenience                                   84                         90
           Comparison                                    102                        107
           Retail Services                               70                         69
           Miscellaneous                                 49                         24
           Vacant                                        204                        169
          Source: Experian Goad, September 2004.



4.65	   The data is Table 4.6 is presented in Figure 4.5 overleaf. The map provides further
        information on the diversity of uses within Portadown town centre. The key points
        are as follows:


            •	 the principal areas for comparison goods retailing are along the frontages to
                Market Street and High Street, and within the High Street Mall and Magowan
                West Shopping Centres’;


            •	 convenience goods shopping is concentrated upon the large Tesco superstore
                at The Meadows Shopping Centre and a number of smaller units dispersed
                throughout the rest of the town centre;


            •	 service uses are mainly concentrated along the secondary frontages of the
                town centre with relatively few located in the primary shopping areas;


            •	 voids are relatively extensive but again are mainly found in the secondary
                areas of the town centre; there are none along the primary shopping
                frontages.



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         Environmental Quality


4.66 	 The environmental quality of Portadown appears from our surveys to be satisfactory.
         Few shoppers rate improvements to the environment as a key issue, whilst 46% of
         retailers rate the environment / appearance of the town centre as very good or good,
         compared to just 15% who rate it as quite poor or poor. Moreover, almost 90% of
         traders consider the environmental quality of the town is staying the same or
         improving.


         Pedestrian Flow


4.67	    Pedestrian flow counts have been carried out at eight locations within Portadown
         town centre. The locations and a summary of the results are shown in Figure 4.6
         overleaf. Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Appendix 7B.


4.68	    The highest three day footfall is at 1 High Street Mall (Count Point 5) with a two-way
         flow of 26,940. This is higher than the Lurgan equivalent total, but lower than that at
         Craigavon. Flows are also healthy along the north side of Market Street, particularly
         at Count Point 2, and actually exceed those along the north and south frontages to the
         High Street. Pedestrian footfall does, however, tail off considerably along the
         secondary frontages of Bridge Street, Castle Street and Church Street; in these areas
         flows are only one-third of peak or lower. Pedestrian flows are relatively consistent
         across the week, with Saturday being broadly on a par with a Friday, for example.
         This suggests that the town centre does not lose shoppers on a Saturday (the main
         shopping day) like Lurgan, but neither does it gain additional trips like Craigavon.


         Retailer Profile


4.69 	   Portadown offers a reasonable number of multiple retailers. However, they are spread
         throughout the town centre – at Magowan West, in the High Street Mall, along
         Market and High Streets’ and in The Meadows Shopping Centre – rather than
         concentrated in one area. This means the retail core of the town centre is fairly
         extensive; much larger than that of Craigavon and Lurgan. Looking ahead, we do not
         believe that Portadown is likely to prove as attractive a location for major retailers as
         Craigavon, although it will feature much more strongly than Lurgan. In particular, the



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           lack of a major department store at Portadown will act as a deterrent to the fashion
           sector, especially those traders serving the mid to top end of the market.


           Retailer Views1


4.70	      A majority of the retailers responding to our survey were independents, occupiers of
           small units (64% less than 93 sq m) and had been established in Portadown for a
           relatively long time (43% for 10 years or more). Moreover, the proportion of retailers
           which have refurbished their premises, and extended their store and product range
           over the past 12 months is broadly in line with the survey average. In addition, few
           traders have experienced higher than anticipated staff turnover during the previous
           year or had to improve conditions of employment or increase wages more than
           expected.


4.71 	 Just 2% of retailers responding to our survey indicated that they were likely to cease
           trading within the coming 12 months – fewer than Lurgan, but higher than the 0% at
           Craigavon. Compared to the survey average, more retailers in Portadown intend to
           increase their product range, whilst fewer intend to employ more staff over the
           coming year.


4.72	      During the 12 months prior to the survey, convenience goods sales held up quite well,
           whilst comparison goods turnover fell by 12%. This is likely to over-state the actual
           position, since our household survey indicates that the comparison goods sector in the
           town centre is trading satisfactorily. Looking ahead, slightly more retailers expected
           their turnover to rise than fall, although 37% believed their sales would remain about
           the same and 23% did not give a view.


4.73	      Portadown scores fairly badly in relation to market position with a small majority of
           retailers thinking the retail offer is too downmarket, whilst 41% believe the centre is
           too congested. In terms of the trading mix, the view is split with roughly equal
           numbers of retailers believing there are too many small shops (independents) as too
           many large shops (multiples). The numbers of service businesses and vacant units are
           also considered to be unacceptable; although virtually all retailers are satisfied with



1
    Full results of the retailer survey for Portadown town centre are set out in Appendix 5C.


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        the pitch of their shop and standard of accommodation, with many rating their units
        as good or very good.


4.74	   Retailers consider Tesco, Dunnes Stores and Next to be the principal anchors in the
        town centre; Tesco is the only retailer to be named as a major anchor in all three town
        centres confirming its important role in underpinning their retail economies. In terms
        of future representation, stores such as Primark, New Look and Peacocks are what
        retailers would most like to see.


4.75	   In general, the retailer survey confirms that the retail economy of Portadown town
        centre is treading water. Around one-third of respondents, for example, feel the
        centre’s performance has strengthened during the past five years, whilst a similar
        proportion believe it has got worse. The balance believe Portadown’s trading
        performance has stayed “about the same”.


4.76 	 Looking ahead, retailers rate the need to provide better entertainment / leisure
        facilities (especially in the evenings) as the most important issue, whilst there is also
        strong support for increasing the range of multiple retailers and for reducing traffic
        congestion. Around three-quarters of retailers (the lowest proportion of the three
        towns) are also supportive of adding to the amount of retail floorspace in the town
        centre to enable new retailers to locate in the centre.


        Shop Rents


4.77	   Prime rents in Portadown town centre are currently (May 2005) at £431 per sq m, the
        same as 12 months ago. The town has therefore marginally under-performed the
        Northern Ireland average, which rose by 2.5% during 2004/5. The present rental level
        is also only on a par with Lurgan, which has a much smaller town centre.


4.78	   Over the past five years, prime rents in Portadown have risen by 14%, from a level of
        £377 per sq m in May 2001.




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                      Vacancy Rates

            4.79 	 Data from The Planning Service confirms that there is 11,569 sq m net of vacant
                      retail floorspace in Portadown town as a whole. This is the highest total out of the
                      three towns, but is by no means excessive given the overall size of the centre. This is
                      born out by Table 4.5, which shows that just 12% of the town centre’s floorspace
                      stock is vacant, and this includes several relatively large units in The Meadows
                      Shopping Centre, which is undergoing some layout and structural changes. Moreover,
                      as noted earlier, many of the voids are located in secondary locations, well away from
                      the retail core. Clearly, a number of the vacant units may be unsuitable for today’s
                      modern multiple retailer seeking representation in Portadown town centre.

                      Health Check Summary and Qualitative Need

            4.80 	 In this Section we have presented a comprehensive health check of the three towns
                      centres in Craigavon District. The assessment for each individual centre has involved
                      a consideration of the nine indicators listed in PPS 5. We have sought to summarise
                      the results of our health checks in Table 4.7, although acknowledge this is difficult to
                      do and relies to a large extent on judgement. Moreover, PPS 5 does not provide any
                      guidance as the ‘weight’ that should be attached to each of the indicators for
                      measuring performance. Accordingly, our approach has been to assume equal weights
                      and to give each town centre a score of 1 to 5 for each of the indicators. We have then
                      calculated an average score.

                      Table 4.7 Health Check Summary: Town Centres Ranked by Performance
                      Scores

  Town                                                   Health Check Indicator and Score                                        Average
  Centre     Accessibility     Customer     Diversity   Environmental     Pedestrian   Retailer   Retailer’s   Shop    Vacancy    Score
                                Views        of Use        Quality            Flow      Profile    Views       Rents    Rates
Craigavon         3               4            2             4                 4            4         4         3         4        3.6
Lurgan            2               3            3             2                 2            1         2         2         3        2.2
Portadown         3               4            4             3                 3            3         3         2         3        3.1
   Key
  Score
    5        Very Positive
               	
    4        Fairly Positive
                	
    3	       Neither Positive or Negative
    2        Fairly Negative
                	
    1        Very Negative
               	




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4.81	   On the basis of the health check indicators and scores set out above, Craigavon is the
        healthiest of the three town centres in Craigavon District. It achieves an average score
        of 3.6, mid-way between average (neither positive or negative) and fairly positive. Its
        lack of diversity of uses is a handicap; if this indicator was removed Craigavon’s
        average score would increase to 3.9. Portadown scores 3.1 overall, close to the
        average score. The town centre is a solid performer, scoring 3 or 4 points against all
        of the indicators except rents (2 points) which in our view, are on the low side given
        the size and retail function of the town. Lurgan is in the poorest retail health, gaining
        an average score of just 2.2, close to fairly negative. It fails to score more than 3
        points against any of the nine indicators, suggesting it lacks any real strengths, whilst
        its retailer profile and accessibility are amongst its major shortcomings.


4.82	   Overall, we are able to conclude that the two largest town centres within Craigavon
        District are healthier than the smallest. This appears to confirm the suggestion in PPS
        5 that smaller town centres are most vulnerable to the impact of out of centre retail
        development (see paragraph 4.5).


4.83 	 Our conclusions in respect of each town centre and the qualitative need for new
        retail development are as follows:


            •	 Craigavon – Retailing provision in Craigavon is focused on The Rushmere
                Shopping Centre. This was extended in 2004 and offers shoppers a modern,
                large and purpose built shopping mall with plentiful adjoining free parking.
                The retail offer includes two food superstores (Tesco and Sainsbury’s), a
                Debenhams department store, many unit shops (including plenty of fashion
                traders) and adjoining retail warehouses, which offer a good range of bulky
                comparison goods. We do not therefore consider there is a material
                qualitative need for additional retail floorspace at Craigavon.


            •	 Lurgan – Lurgan town contains a surprisingly large quantum of retail
                floorspace, although not all of this is located within the town centre. Even so,
                the town centre covers a large area and is extremely elongated. Given that
                there are few multiple traders in Lurgan, this means that many of the retail
                frontages in the town centre are secondary and attract low levels of pedestrian
                foot fall. Clearly there is a qualitative need for more non-bulky comparison



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                goods multiple traders, particularly in the important fashion sector, which
                tends to anchor most high streets. In addition, there is a qualitative need for a
                major food superstore in the town centre, since the present food supermarkets
                are generally small and located in sub-standard accommodation. However,
                we understand that Tesco is shortly to commence the construction of a
                superstore on a site adjoining the new town by-pass, which should link
                through into the High Street.


           •	 Portadown – Portadown town centre covers a relatively large footprint and
                consists of three purpose-built shopping centres – High Street Mall, The
                Meadows and Magowan West – and many traditional street frontages. There
                is an adequate range of multiple traders present, including an extremely large
                Tesco superstore anchoring The Meadows. Accordingly, there is no material
                qualitative need for additional retail provision, although the town could
                perhaps aspire to a department store and a larger fashion sector, particularly
                more mid and top-market stores.




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5.         Q
           	 UANTITATIVE                 RETAIL           NEED:          METHODOLOGY,
           DATA SOURCES AND ASSUMPTIONS

           Objectives


5.1	       A major objective of this study is to estimate the quantitative need for additional
           retail floorspace within Craigavon District through to 2010, the end date of the Local
           Plan and also to 2015. The quantitative assessment has been undertaken for each of
           the two main categories of retailing – convenience goods and comparison goods, and
           for each of the three towns; Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. The assessment has
           been undertaken within the context of the RDS1 and PPS 52.


5.2	       Although the assessment is necessarily detailed and relatively complex, we have at all
           stages sought to achieve transparency in our calculations. We have followed a
           traditional approach to estimating retail need and have incorporated the very latest
           data on consumer expenditure, retail floorspace and population as well as carrying out
           a new household telephone survey. This should ensure that our assessment is up to
           date, comprehensive and robust.


5.3	       Section 6 of this report describes the quantitative need analysis that we have carried
           out and presents the results. In this Section we introduce the need methodology,
           summarise the role of the household telephone survey and (for convenience) set out
           in one place the main assumptions and definitions which we have used, and our
           principal sources of data.


           Quantitative Need Methodology


5.4	       The need for additional retail floorspace within an area (or town) is dependent on the
           future relationship between the demand for and supply of space, ideally after taking
           into account the extent (if any) of any over / under trading that is occurring at the
           present time. The demand for floorspace is then determined by assessing the likely
           growth in the volume of consumer retail expenditure, while an assessment of
           floorspace supply involves quantifying the extent to which proposed changes in the

1
    The Regional Development Strategy ‘Shaping Our Future’.
2
    Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 5, Retailing and Town Centres.


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       location, quality and quantity of retail floorspace will meet the forecast increases in
       expenditure. Any monetary shortfall of supply relative to demand in the future
       indicates there is a need for more floorspace in quantitative terms. The scale of
       additional retail provision is then determined by converting the excess consumer
       expenditure (or headroom expenditure) into a retail floorspace need total. In practice,
       because shopping patterns are complex and vary for different types of goods, the
       methodology utilises survey data to predict existing shopping patterns and examines
       the extent to which this should change in future. This is a judgement decision based
       upon planning considerations.


5.5	   In practice, commercial considerations are also important in estimating the need for
       more floorspace; if a quantitative assessment identifies that there is scope for more
       space, but the market is too weak to let it, then clearly any proposed expansion may
       need to be reconsidered. Alternatively, there may be instances when market demand
       for providing additional retail floorspace exceeds the retail need indicated by the
       quantitative need assessment.


5.6	   Our methodology for estimating quantitative need is presented diagrammatically in
       Figure 5.1 overleaf. An important ‘working’ assumption is that we assume that the
       existing (base year) market share of available consumer retail expenditure taken-up
       by Craigavon District as a whole, is held constant throughout the forecast period to
       2015. This assumption relates to each of the two broad categories of goods:
       convenience goods and comparison goods. This important assumption has been
       agreed with The Planning Service and reflects in broad terms strategic planning
       objectives as set out in the RDS. Our quantitative floorspace need estimates for
       Craigavon District as a whole therefore reflects this constant market shares approach.
       The quantitative need methodology is set out in full in Volume 2 Appendix 1A. The
       key steps are described below.


       Step 1 Catchment Area Definition


5.7	   The catchment area should be defined with regard to the study objective. For the
       present study it includes all of Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland.




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        Step 2 Analyse Consumer Demand


5.8	    This will comprise population estimates of retail expenditure per head for the present
        and projected forecast year(s). This should include resident population, but also any
        in-flow retail expenditure from people living outside the catchment area. The main
        types of inflow expenditure come from long distance shoppers, commuters and
        tourists.


        Step 3 Analyse Retail Supply


5.9	    This step comprises an assessment of the retail turnover of the existing retail
        floorspace stock. This will involve a household telephone survey to estimate the
        actual retail turnover of centres and stores and a comparison with benchmark
        turnover.


        Step 4 Retail Demand Vs Retail Supply in the Base Year


5.10	   At this stage, the adequacy of the existing retail provision within Craigavon District
        in quantitative terms is assessed. For example, if actual turnovers assessed in Step 3
        exceed the benchmark turnovers, it could be argued that the floorspace is over-trading
        and, therefore, there may be an existing need for additional retail floorspace.
        Alternatively, if actual turnovers are less than benchmark levels then the floorspace
        may be assumed to be under-trading, signalling a potential over-supply of existing
        retail floorspace.


        Step 5 Changes in Retail Demand and Retail Supply through to Forecast Year(s)


5.11	   This step projects forward total available expenditure in the catchment area and the
        turnover of existing and committed retail floorspace and the forecast retail turnover
        gives a measure of the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace. If there is an
        expenditure surplus, this is converted into potential floorspace by dividing by an
        appropriate sales density. Similarly, if there is an expenditure deficit, a floorspace
        over supply may exist.




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         The Household Telephone Survey


         Objectives of the Survey


5.12	    The household telephone survey forms an important component of the present study,
         since it provides robust and up-to-date information on the current pattern of shopping
         activity throughout Craigavon District and surrounding areas. As such, it forms the
         base upon which the retail need estimates are built.


5.13	    A major aim of the survey is to generate quantitative data on consumer retail
         expenditure flows between areas or zones (where people live) and retail centres
         (where people spend their money). This has been carried out for the following three
         types of shopping1.


             •    Convenience goods
             •    Non-bulky comparison goods
             •    Bulky comparison goods


         Definition of the Survey Area


5.14	    We reached agreement with The Planning Service on the outer boundary of the
         household survey area at the beginning of the study. The survey area is shown in
         Figure 3.1 (following page 20). It is relatively extensive, since it has been drawn to
         include the main shopping catchments of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown.


         Definition of the Expenditure Zones


5.15	    For the purpose of sampling and analysis the wider survey area has been divided into
         16 zones. These zones are defined on the basis of ward boundaries and each zone
         comprises of one or more wards. All of the zones were agreed with The Planning
         Service. In broad terms they relate to natural shopping activity areas on the ground
         and to the size and distribution of retail centres. There are relatively more zones

1
  Although the main quantitative need assessment is undertaken for comparison goods as a whole, the
survey works much better in practice if respondents are asked about their shopping patterns in respect
of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods separately. The non-bulky and bulky comparison goods
results are then combined later on in the analysis.


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        within Craigavon District than other Districts because Craigavon is the main
        geographical focus of the study.


5.16	   Figure 3.1 (following page 20) shows the locations and general configuration of the
        zones throughout the survey area.


5.17	   The allocation of zones by Council District is as follows:


        Craigavon District –         7 Zones 

        Lisburn District –           2 Zones 

        Banbridge District –         2 Zones 

        Armagh District –            3 Zones 

        Dungannon District –         2 Zones 

        -----------------------------------------
        Survey Area                  16 Zones


        Sampling


5.18	   In consultation with The Planning Service an overall target sample of 1,500
        completed interviews was agreed, sufficient to provide a coverage of 94 interviews
        per zone. In practice, the actual number of completed interviews carried out was as
        follows:


        Craigavon District            658
        Hinterland                    846           

                                     -------

        Total           	             1504


5.19	   Within each of the 16 zones, the interview sample was drawn randomly and in
        proportion to the distribution of population. This ensures the results of the survey
        reflect for each zone the density of population on the ground. Appendix 4A provides
        a much more detailed statistical synopsis of the sampling methodology and the degree
        of confidence which can be attributed to the results for different geographical levels
        of analysis.




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        The Survey Questionnaire


5.20	   The survey questionnaire was drafted in consultation with The Planning Service and
        their agreement was obtained prior to the commencement of interviewing. A copy of
        the questionnaire used for the household telephone survey is reproduced in Appendix
        4C.


        Implementation, Analysis and Results


5.21	   Fieldwork for the household survey was carried out during May 2005. In so far as we
        use the survey results to inform our assessment of retail need within Craigavon
        District, the key data which the survey generates is the percentage market share (in
        terms of expenditure) of the city, town and other centres within each of the 16 zones.
        This is analysed separately for convenience goods and comparison goods shopping.
        Using this quantitative information, it is possible to build-up a picture of existing
        shopper behaviour within Craigavon District and the survey area as a whole. In
        particular, the data allows the existing catchment areas and retail turnovers for
        Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown to be determined. This information has already
        been analysed and mapped in Section 3, while it also forms the foundation for the
        retail floorspace need estimates, which are presented in full in Section 6.


        Principal Data Sources


5.22	   The quantitative retail need assessment which we present in Section 6 utilises five
        major sources of data. Each is new to this study and therefore unavailable for earlier
        retail studies undertaken within Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland. The
        data sources are as follows:


              •   Data on shopping trip patterns and consumer retail expenditure flows

                  Source:	       A bespoke household telephone survey was undertaken,
                                 which has been described at paragraphs 5.12 to 5.21
                                 inclusive, with full details presented in Appendix 4.




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           •    Data on population and population projections


                Source:	       Populations have been derived for each of the zones by using
                               Census-based ward population totals. Zone populations were
                               then projected forward to the forecast years of 2010 and 2015
                               by applying district-based population projections. Full details
                               of our population methodology are set out in Appendix 10F.


           •    Data on consumer retail expenditure per head


                Source:	       Bespoke data on convenience goods and comparison goods
                               expenditure per head for 2003 has been obtained from EBS
                               for each zone. Full information is set out in Appendix 10A.


           •    Data on existing retail floorspace


                Source:	       The Planning Service / Valuation Office undertook a
                               comprehensive survey of all retail floorspace within
                               Craigavon District as at January 2005. The floorspace stock
                               figures have been updated to May 2005 by Colliers CRE in
                               conjunction with The Planning Service. The survey identifies
                               net (sales) floorspace within each town for each of the
                               following categories of use:


                               - Convenience goods
                               - Non-bulky comparison goods
                               - Bulky comparison goods
                               - Retail services
                               - Vacant


                               The ‘town’ retail floorspace figures include retail provision
                               in the town centres and also shops that are located outside of
                               the town centres. Figure 5.2 overleaf, for example, shows
                               the locations of neighbourhood shopping facilities in the
                               towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. Elsewhere in



                                            61

                                                       Fig. 5.2. Location of Town and Neighbourhood Shopping Facilities within Craigavon District


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                                                                                                                                                       Lough Road Motorway Services
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            Brownstown Road/Loughgall Road                                                                                                                                             Wells Cross
            Brownstown Road/Loughgall Road
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                                                                 Annagh Bridge/Tandragee Road
                                                                 Annagh Bridge/Tandragee Road
                                                                                                                                                                                          Portadown Neighbourhood Shopping Facilities
                Brownstown Road/Armagh Road
                Brownstown Road/Armagh Road
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                                                                                                                                                                           Ballynagarrick
Colliers CRE                         Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                         Department of Environment, Planning Service





                                Craigavon District there are also a number of small rural
                                retail settlements.


                                Details of existing retail floorspace by town and the rest of
                                Craigavon District as at May 2005 are set out in Appendix 9.


            •   Data on retail commitments / proposals


                Source:	        The Planning Service has prepared a detailed schedule of
                                retail schemes in the planning pipeline throughout Craigavon
                                District (full details are set out in Appendix 11). These have
                                been grouped into one of two categories as follows:

                                -	        those schemes with planning consent as at May 2005
                                          – these are defined as ‘hard’ commitments;

                                -	        those schemes awaiting a planning decision as at
                                          May 2005 – these are defined as ‘soft proposals’.


        Interpretation and Definitions


5.23	   In addition to the principal sources of data, there are a number of definitions which
        we have adopted throughout the quantitative need assessment. These ensure
        consistency and although many are referred to again in Section 6, we hope that by
        grouping them together below this will assist the reader in understanding the
        technical analysis which follows.


        Study Centres


        The Planning Service has requested that we assess the quantitative need for additional
        retail floorspace for the following three towns within Craigavon District.


            •   Craigavon
            •   Lurgan
            •   Portadown




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        Base Year


5.24	   We adopt a base year of 2005. This is when the household telephone survey was
        undertaken, and therefore the year in which we have town retail turnover estimates.


        Forecast Year(s)


5.25	   The Planning Service has agreed to 2010, which is the end date of the Local Plan, and
        also 2015.


        Price Base


5.26	   All monetary figures in this report are given in constant 2003 prices, which is the
        price base of the consumer retail expenditure per head data obtained from EBS.


        Future Growth in Consumer Retail Expenditure Per Head


5.27	   Future spending levels have an important bearing on the need for additional retail
        floorspace. The assumptions used are therefore critical to the validity of the overall
        quantitative need assessment and it is vital that the most up to date, realistic and
        robust sources are used.


5.28	   In this study, we adopt the latest available 2003-based Ultra Long Term Trend
        (ULTT) expenditure projections published by EBS in August 2004. These are set out
        in full at Appendix 10C and incorporate the move by the ONS in 2003 to an annual
        chain linking approach to producing constant price economic aggregates. Our
        rationale for adopting the EBS ULTT expenditure projections for both convenience
        goods and comparison goods are that they are close to the EBS expenditure forecasts
        and, as a result, are unlikely to over-state the future growth in consumer retail
        expenditure, which at the present time is running at a low rate of increase. Moreover,
        the ULTT has been derived from actual expenditure growth in the UK between 1965
        and 2003 and therefore incorporates economic cycles which are also likely to occur
        between now and 2015.




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5.29	   We therefore adopt the EBS ULTT expenditure projections which are set out in
        Table 5.1.


        Table 5.1: Expenditure Per Head Growth Forecasts


           Goods Category       Time Period
                                 2003-2015
         Convenience Goods         0.7% pa
         Comparison Goods          4.3% pa


        In-Flow Expenditure


5.30	   We have estimated the volume of consumer retail expenditure flowing into our
        survey area using information gained from similar studies carried out in Northern
        Ireland and from our own expertise. In addition, we have considered the role and
        retail offer available in Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown and the existing market
        shares generated by these towns throughout the survey area. In-flow expenditure has
        been estimated separately for convenience goods, non-bulky comparison goods and
        bulky comparison goods for each town within Craigavon District. Full details of our
        in-flow estimates are set out in Volume 2.


        Special Forms of Trading and E-Commerce


5.31	   It is normal practice in the preparation of quantitative retail need studies to make
        deductions from the consumer retail expenditure per person figures adopted to allow
        for expenditure by ‘special forms of trading’ (SFT). This is retail expenditure that
        does not take place in shops such as that via mail order houses (including purchases
        from wholly internet-based companies), door to door salesmen and stalls and markets.
        EBS estimate that expenditure by SFT nationally accounts for 0.9% of consumer
        retail expenditure on convenience goods and 6.4% on comparison goods. Full details
        of EBS’s SFT percentages are set out in Appendix 10D.


5.32	   According to EBS, and contrary to popular perceptions, there is little hard evidence to
        date that SFT is increasing as a proportion of consumer retail expenditure. EBS state
        that:



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            •	 “the available ABI data for 1997 to 2001 shows no obvious trend in the
                market share of non-store retailing. This may be because the ABI fails to
                include the internet sales of companies that have store outlets as well as
                internet sales. It may also be because the demise of traditional mail order
                shopping is largely off-setting the internet boom”.


5.33	   Accordingly, we have assumed that the proportion of consumer spending on SFT will
        remain constant through to 2015 for each of the main goods categories. However, if
        the actual growth in SFT as a proportion of retail expenditure increases between 2005
        (our base year) and 2015 then our estimate of additional retail floorspace need within
        Craigavon District may be too high.


        Disaggregation of Available Consumer Retail Expenditure Between Non-Bulky
        and Bulky Comparison Goods Spending


5.34	   Initially, we undertake separate quantitative assessments for non-bulky and bulky
        comparison goods (prior to combining the data), and therefore available consumer
        retail expenditure on comparison goods must be disaggregated between the two
        categories. In this study, based on EBS expenditure data (see Appendix 10B), we
        assume that the split between non-bulky and bulky comparison goods spending is
        64% and 36% respectively. We apply these proportions to generate bespoke base year
        (2005) non-bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure totals for each of the 16
        zones within the survey area.


        Turnover Allocation for Existing Retail Floorspace


5.35	   It would, in our view, be wrong to assume that all of the increase in retail expenditure
        within Craigavon District is available to support additional retail floorspace. This is
        because it is appropriate that some of the forecast growth in expenditure should be
        allocated to existing retailers because the evidence confirms that existing retail shops,
        in fact, achieve real, and necessary, gains in sales productivities year on year.
        Consequently, to avoid making such an allowance would lead to a “double-counting”
        of available retail expenditure and thus an over-estimation of the need for additional
        retail floorspace (ie. the consumer spend soaked-up by existing retail floorspace
        would be used to justify the need for more retail floorspace).



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5.36	   EBS have recently published a Retail Planner Briefing Note on estimating and
        projecting sales densities (reproduced in full in Appendix 10E), which sets out the
        new research undertaken on the subject and its relevance to need (retail capacity)
        assessments. EBS conclude as follows:


            •	 “The long-term (1975-2003) trend for comparison goods space is 2.5 per
                cent, although … there may have been a recent increase in the trend. Given
                the uncertainties … an assumption that sales densities are likely to increase
                at somewhere in the range of 2.0 per cent (the ‘moderate’ assumption) to 2.5
                per cent (the ‘historical’ trend) appears appropriate.


            •	 “Similarly we would expect a slowdown in the observed 1.1 per cent per
                annum increase in convenience sales densities between 1986 and 1999. This
                is especially true if we consider only pure convenience floorspace rather than
                the mix of convenience and comparison found in many supermarkets and
                superstores. Nonetheless, we still expect future increases to be well above the
                old URPI figure of 0.15 per cent – we suggest that 0.75 per cent might be
                more suitable.”


                (Retail Planner Briefing Note 2.2, April 2005, Pages 7 and 8).


5.37	   EBS further advise that for towns (or areas) where there is a material over-trading at
        the present time, it is likely that the potential for real gains in sales productivity in the
        future will be less than the national averages as set out in paragraph 5.36. Similarly,
        in towns (areas) where there is currently significant under-trading, there is likely to be
        potential for gains in sales productivity in excess of the national average. However, if
        the monetary effects of over-trading and under-trading in the base year are fully taken
        into account in the quantitative need assessment – as is the case in this study – then it
        brings the Craigavon District retail economy into a retail equilibrium position akin to
        the national average scenario consistent with the EBS research on the growth in store
        productivities. This link is important and has been recently established in discussions
        we have had with EBS. Consequently, it is perfectly reasonable to apply the EBS
        store productivity recommendations in this study. For comparison goods we adopt the
        mid-point between 2.0% and 2.5%, the EBS moderate and historical assumptions
        respectively.



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5.38	   Taking into account all of this evidence, we adopt the following estimates for real
        increases in floorspace efficiency from 2005 (our base year) through to 2015.


            •	 Convenience goods                                     0.75% pa
            •	 Comparison goods                                      2.25% pa


        Forecast Sales Densities


5.39	   Sales density measures the relative efficiency with which floorspace is used by
        retailers to convert sales floorspace into retail turnover. Retailers selling high value
        goods from a relatively small unit area generally achieve much higher sales densities
        than retailers such as DIY or bulky furniture operators selling lower value products
        from a large store.


5.40	   We use forecast sales densities at two stages in our quantitative floorspace need
        assessment:


            •	 to estimate the turnover of retail commitments and retail proposals;


            •	 to convert the available residual headroom expenditure at each of the forecast
                years into a need (or requirement) for additional retail floorspace.


5.41	   In considering what are the most important sales densities to use it is necessary to
        bear in mind the following:


            •	 that sales densities which relate to new retail stores or schemes which will
                open in the future will generally be higher than those which apply to all of the
                existing retail floorspace stock in a town in the base year (2005);


            •	 that sales densities vary widely between goods categories, with those for
                convenience goods being higher than those for comparison goods;


            •	 that sales densities for convenience and comparison goods floorspace will
                rise due to the real increases in floorspace efficiency that occur over time.




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5.42	   It is therefore necessary to adopt a range of forecast sales densities in order to account
        for the variability in retail performance between different goods categories and retail
        formats. In selecting what we consider to be the most realistic forecast sales densities,
        we have taken into account the location and characteristics of the Craigavon District
        retail economy and the sales density figures used in previous retail studies carried out
        for Central Government departments in Northern Ireland. Our forecast sales densities
        are set out in Table 5.2.


        Table 5.2 Assumed Forecast Sales Densities (£ psm)


                                                                                                              Forecast Year
                       Goods Category                                         Format
                                                                                                               2010      20151
            Non-Bulky Comparison Goods                       All Conventional Retail Stores                   4,000      4,471
                                                             Factory Outlet Centres                           3,500      3,912
            Bulky Comparison Goods                           All Stores                                       1,500      1,677
            Convenience Goods                                Superstores / Large food stores                  7,500      7,786
        1
            The sales densities are higher in 2015 because they include real increases in store productivities between
            2010 and 2015.



        Net to Gross Ratios


5.43	   In converting net (or sales) retail floorspace to gross retail floorspace (or vice versa),
        we have used a series of net to gross ratios. These are as follows:


                •     Convenience goods                             60:100
                •     Non-bulky comparison goods                    65:100 Town Centres
                                                                    90:100 Retail Warehouses
                •     Bulky comparison goods                        65:100 Town Centres
                                                                    90:100 Retail Warehouses


        Metric Conversion


5.44	   Where necessary, we have converted square feet into metres (and vice versa) using
        the following formulae:




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        1 sq m =10.764 sq ft 

        1 sq ft = 0.093 sq m



        VAT


5.45	   Expenditure and sales / turnover data used throughout the quantitative assessment
        includes VAT.


        General Point


5.46	   It must be stressed that any quantitative need assessment undertaken over a long time-
        period (eg. 2015 is 10 years away) is subject to a margin of error, since it is
        necessarily based on a number of assumptions which are difficult to forecast
        accurately. We therefore recommend that the retail floorspace need estimates,
        particularly those relating to years towards the back end of the forecast period, should
        be treated with some caution.




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6.         Q
           	 UANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: ASSESSMENT AND
           RESULTS

           Objectives


6.1	       This section describes our approach to estimating the quantitative need (or capacity)
           for additional retail floorspace within Craigavon District and the three constituent
           towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. To meet the requirements of The
           Planning Service, the quantitative assessment is carried out separately for
           convenience goods and comparison goods and has been undertaken in respect of two
           scenarios. Scenario 1 (the “benchmark” position) assumes that the three towns within
           Craigavon District maintain their existing market shares of available spending in each
           goods sector through to the forecast years of 2010 and 2015. Scenario 2 assumes
           Craigavon maintains its existing retail turnover in the base year (2005)1 through to
           2010 and 2015, with Lurgan and Portadown benefiting in proportion from the
           redistribution of future turnover growth away from Craigavon. All monetary figures
           are given in constant 2003 prices.


6.2	       The assessment provides the following information:


                •	 Estimates of total available retail expenditure within the shopping catchment
                    areas of the three towns at the base year of 2005 and the forecast years of
                    2010 and 2015 (these years having been agreed with The Planning Service);


                •	 Estimates of the retail turnover likely to be ‘retained’ by the towns at each of
                    the forecast years;


                •	 Estimates of “headroom” expenditure and therefore retail floorspace need
                    within the towns at the forecast years; and


                •	 Quantitative retail floorspace need disaggregated into convenience goods and
                    comparison goods retail floorspace.



1
    Subject to making an appropriate allowance for increasing store productivities over time.


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6.3	   Our understanding is that the results of the need assessment will be used by The
       Planning Service to inform the future retail policies and strategies for Craigavon
       District. The results should also assist The Planning Service in responding to any
       emerging retail proposals.


       Approach


6.4	   Our broad approach to estimating retail need comprises of seven main steps, which in
       aggregate cover the three main stages of analysis:


       (i)	     Forecasting consumer demand;
       (ii)	    Forecasting retail supply; and
       (iii)	   The conversion of (any) surplus retail expenditure into a retail floorspace
                requirement.


6.5	   We have sought to provide an analysis that is transparent and which, at the same time,
       seeks to be robust. The assessment is also presented in a way that enables it to be
       updated in the future as more up-to-date statistics become available and the emerging
       pattern of shopping activity becomes more established.


6.6	   We carry out separate quantitative retail need assessments for comparison goods and
       convenience goods. Each is supported by a number of tables (spreadsheets) which are
       reproduced in Volume 2, Appendix 1B. In addition, the assessment refers to a
       number of key assumptions and technical adjustments which have already been
       discussed in Section 5, and are reproduced as Appendices 10A to 10F.


6.7	   In this study, although we estimate quantitative need for each of the towns within
       Craigavon District, we recommend that The Planning Service places most emphasis
       on the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace within the District as a whole,
       since the area is small and the town catchments overlap considerably with each other.


6.8	   We begin with an assessment of the retail floorspace need for comparison goods.




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        Analysis: Comparison Goods


        Step 1: Calculate Total Available Expenditure in the Survey Area


6.9	    The household survey area is shown in Figure 3.1 (following page 20) and is defined
        to encompass the shopping catchment areas of the three towns within Craigavon
        District. Within this area the quantum of comparison goods retail expenditure
        generated is derived by multiplying population by average annual expenditure per
        head. This calculation is carried out for each of the 16 zones which comprise the
        survey area.


6.10	   Population estimates by zone and for the survey area as a whole are set out in
        Volume 2, Table 1. In addition to estimates for 2005 (the base year), population
        forecasts for 2010 and 2015 are also included. These population estimates are 2001
        Census-based projections (see Appendix 10F).


6.11	   Table 2 gives the average annual expenditure per person on comparison goods for
        residents living in each of the 16 zones comprising our survey area. These figures
        have been obtained from EBS. We have projected the per person expenditure
        estimates forward to the forecast years of 2010 and 2015 by adopting EBS’s 2003-
        based Ultra Long Term Trend expenditure growth projections.


6.12	   At Table 3 we make deductions to the per person expenditure estimates to account
        for retail expenditure which does not take place in the shops, such as that on mail
        order shopping (including e-commerce companies), door to door salesmen and
        market and road-side stalls. This form of expenditure is generally known as “special
        forms of trading”.


6.13	   In presenting expenditure forecasts through to 2015, we are aware that there are
        currently a number of electronic shopping formats which, should they become widely
        established, could reduce significantly the proportion of retail expenditure that is now
        spent in conventional shops. We have reviewed the likely impact of these new forms
        of shopping and concluded that it is premature at the present time to make material
        changes. Therefore, we have maintained “special forms of trading” at the existing
        percentages through to 2015, although we would stress that this assumption should be



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        reviewed from time to time, since, were it to change significantly, it could have a
        major impact on future levels of retail floorspace by reducing the need for additional
        shopping provision.


6.14	   Our estimates of total available consumer retail expenditure on comparison goods at
        the base year (2005) are set out in Table 4. Forecasts are also given for the forecast
        years of 2010 and 2015. The increases in available expenditure are due to:


            •   The forecast growth in catchment population;
            •   Real increases in consumer comparison goods expenditure per head.


6.15	   Available expenditure on comparison goods within each zone at the base year of 2005
        is disaggregated into spend on non-bulky and bulky comparison goods by applying
        appropriate proportions reflecting expenditure by consumers on those detailed
        product categories which constitute each broader goods category. This sub-division of
        expenditure by zone is set out in Table 5. This disaggregation is necessary at this
        stage in order to take into full account the results of the household telephone survey
        of Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland.


        Step 2: Application of “Market Shares” to Determine Amount of Retained
        Expenditure


6.16	   As a consequence of increases in the volume of consumer expenditure per head
        running in tandem with population growth, we estimate that the “pool” of available
        expenditure on comparison goods within the survey area will increase by some £471
        million between the base year (2005) and the latest forecast year of 2015 (Table 4).


6.17	   However, not all of this growth in consumer expenditure will be spent within
        Craigavon District and is available to support new retail floorspace in the towns of
        Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. This is because competitor centres to those within
        Craigavon District also lay claim to the same growing “pool” of expenditure. This
        requires us to quantify the “market shares” of the towns in Craigavon District.


6.18	   Existing “market Shares” for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping have
        been derived from the household telephone survey carried out by ourselves for The



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        Planning Service as part of this study. The survey provides useful information on the
        geographical extent of catchment areas and trade penetration around existing towns
        by quantifying the pattern and volume of retail expenditure flows from each of our
        defined zones (where people live and money is generated) to a range of centres and
        out of centre stores (where people spend their money).


6.19	   In addition, and of critical importance, our assessment also takes into account the
        distribution and volume of locally available consumer expenditure (or spending
        power) so as to ensure that our retail turnover estimates are balanced against
        available retail consumer expenditure.


6.20	   The base year (2005) patterns of “market shares” are set out in Tables 6A and 6B for
        non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping respectively. These market shares
        have been taken directly from our household telephone survey, although in a small
        number of cases they have been adjusted marginally to account for under-estimation
        of sales at some of the small settlements (see Figure 5.2) (these being just too small
        in retail terms to have been represented accurately in the household telephone
        survey). The “market shares” are then applied to the 2005 “pools” of available non-
        bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure (as set out in Table 5). Tables 7A
        and 7B give the monetary amounts of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods
        expenditure flowing to Craigavon District (and its three towns) and principal
        competing centres by zone. The addition of these expenditure totals for each of the 16
        zones gives the total amount of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods spend
        flowing to a town from the survey area. For towns within Craigavon District we make
        allowances for in-flow expenditure from outside the survey area. The in-flow figures
        are small because the survey area has been defined in order to capture the vast
        majority of shopping trips to Craigavon District. The monetary in-flows for non-
        bulky and bulky comparison goods are combined at Table 8 in order to provide
        turnover estimates for the three towns for the comparison goods category as a whole.


        Step 3: Determine Whether the Existing Retail Economy is Trading at Equilibrium


6.21	   At this stage of the assessment we consider whether the existing comparison goods
        retail economy of Craigavon District (and its towns) is broadly trading at equilibrium
        or not. This is important because if the amount of consumer retail expenditure



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        flowing to the District is high in relation to the stock of available retail floorspace and
        this appears to be causing problems to retailers and / or shoppers, then the District’s
        retail offer may be described as over-trading. Conversely, if the expenditure flows are
        low relative to available retail floorspace, then this can result in under-trading of the
        present retail offer.


6.22	   If over-trading is occurring in an area (or town) then it is commonly assumed that the
        turnover in excess of the equilibrium position is potentially available to support new
        shopping provision. If this occurs, then this element of expenditure should be added
        to the headroom expenditure which we later estimate from the future growth in the
        retail economy. Conversely, if an area (or town) is under-trading at present, then it is
        also logical to deduct the amount of turnover shortfall relative to the equilibrium
        position from the defined headroom expenditures associated with the future growth in
        the retail economy.


6.23	   The problem with this kind of analysis is determining whether an area (or town) is
        trading in equilibrium or not. There are two principal difficulties. First, retailers need
        to achieve a certain trading level to be viable. However, this trading level varies
        substantially for individual retailers and for the same retailers for different centres
        across the country, reflecting differences in type of business, profit margins, site,
        costs (eg. rents), size, financial structure and other factors. Without detailed financial
        data on all individual traders in an area it is virtually impossible to determine what the
        average equilibrium trading level is. The second major difficulty is that even if it can
        be proven that an area is trading above its retail equilibrium position, this does not
        automatically mean that problems associated with over-trading occur; these may
        include retailer operating difficulties, in-store congestion, over-busy streets leading to
        pedestrian safety and security problems, and congested car parks.


6.24	   In estimating whether the Craigavon District retail economy (and its towns) is in
        retail equilibrium at present in relation to comparison goods shopping, we have been
        handicapped by the unavailability of sales floorspace and trading data on individual
        shops in each town. Nevertheless, we have attempted to be as robust as possible,
        since material conditions of over or under-trading in the base year do suggest there is
        an under or over-supply of retail floorspace already. To assist we have gained a
        reasonable idea of how Craigavon District and its towns are performing from the



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        results of our retailers survey. This suggests that many of the shops in Craigavon
        District are trading poorly with low sales densities and that increases are needed in
        order for them to maintain store viability. On the basis of all the available evidence,
        we conclude that Lurgan is trading well below retail equilibrium, whilst Portadown
        and Craigavon appear to be trading just a little below their equilibrium positions. Our
        benchmark (or retail equilibrium) comparison goods turnover estimates for the
        existing towns within the Craigavon District are set out at Table 8.


6.25	   For comparison goods shopping, the results of the household telephone survey
        suggest that the retail floorspace in Craigavon District as a whole is currently under-
        trading by around £22 million per year, indicating that the actual turnover is lower
        than that required for retailers in the area to achieve “benchmark” sales levels. This
        estimated expenditure ‘deficit’ is deducted from the forecast headroom expenditures
        later on in the assessment.


6.26	   At Table 9 the monetary figures for all comparison goods shopping are converted
        back into market shares.


        Step 4: Calculate Growth in Retained Expenditure through to the Forecast Years


6.27	   Having determined the base year (2005) “market shares” and levels of retained
        comparison goods expenditure within Craigavon District as a whole and its
        constituent towns, we use the principle of market shares to calculate how much more
        spending or trade the District (and its towns) could expect to attract in the future as a
        result of the forecast growth in available catchment area expenditure.


6.28	   Our quantitative need (retail capacity) assessment for comparison goods is based on
        the principle that the retail economy of Craigavon District as a whole will maintain its
        existing status (and level of attraction) relative to competing centres. This “constant
        market share” approach has been agreed with The Planning Service. Under Scenario
        1 we also maintain the existing market shares for the three towns within Craigavon
        District (Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown). We do not therefore adjust the market
        share information for the comparison goods sector (Table 10).




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6.29	   For each of the forecast years we apply the same market shares to the increased
        “pools” of available expenditure in each zone. The calculations for the forecast years
        of 2010 and 2015 are set out in Tables 11 and 14 respectively. Due to the increase in
        demand (as a result of population growth and rising consumer expenditure per head)
        the assessment produces at 2010 higher retail turnover potentials for Craigavon
        District and its constituent towns than in the base year (2005). Similarly, the turnover
        potentials are even higher for the forecast year of 2015.


        Step 5: Determine Level of Potential Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years


6.30	   It would be wrong to assume that all of the increase in turnover potential within
        Craigavon District (and its three towns) will be available by the forecast year(s) to
        support additional comparison goods shopping. This is because some of the forecast
        growth in expenditure must be allocated to existing retailers because the evidence
        confirms that they increase their sales productivities in real terms over time.


6.31	   In Table 12 the turnover allocation for existing retailers is deducted from the 2010
        turnover potential for Craigavon District as whole and each town. This calculation
        produces an estimate of residual turnover potential for each town and the District as a
        whole. The base year (2005) turnovers are then subtracted from the 2010 residual
        turnovers to determine the quantum of potential headroom expenditure available in
        2010 in each town and for the whole District. Similar analyses are carried out in
        relation to comparison goods for the forecast year of 2015 in Table 15.


        Step 6: Determine Level of Residual Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years


6.32	   Table 13 sets out our calculations to estimate the residual headroom expenditure for
        Craigavon District ( and its constituent towns) at the forecast year of 2010 for
        comparison goods floorspace. The same assessment is carried out for the forecast
        year of 2015 in Table 16.


6.33	   The first stage is to adjust the potential headroom expenditures calculated for 2010 by
        taking into account the extent (if any) of any over or under-trading that is occurring at
        each town and in Craigavon District as whole at the base year (2005). This is
        necessary because the headroom expenditures set out so far assume that each town



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        and Craigavon District as a whole are currently trading in retail equilibrium. We have
        already commented upon the fact that this assumption may be viewed as unlikely.
        However, as discussed above, it is, in practice, difficult to define and calculate the
        equilibrium position for any town or area.


6.34	   Nevertheless, despite the difficulties of determining the extent of any over or under-
        trading within Craigavon District and its towns, we consider that including such
        estimates makes our quantitative need assessment more reliable and robust than
        ignoring them. We use the under-trading estimates determined at Table 8 to “adjust”
        our headroom expenditure totals. In practice, if an area (or town) is estimated to be
        under-trading at the present time, this will reduce the quantum of headroom
        expenditure at the forecast year(s), since some of the growth in expenditure should be
        set-aside to bring the existing retail stock up to a retail equilibrium trading position.
        Table 13 sets out our calculation for making this adjustment to the 2010 headroom
        expenditures for comparison goods. Table 16 repeats the calculation for the forecast
        year of 2015.


6.35	   At this stage, in order to convert the adjusted headroom expenditures into residual
        headroom expenditures at the forecast years of 2010 and 2015, we make further (if
        applicable) deductions to account for that quantum of retail expenditure which is
        likely to be soaked up by retail floorspace commitments and proposals within
        Craigavon District (commitments are retail developments already in the pipeline,
        which are either under construction or have planning consent, whilst proposals are
        submitted applications which have yet to be determined).


6.36	   From information supplied to us by The Planning Service, we have produced a
        schedule of the retail commitments and proposals within Craigavon District
        disaggregated by centre / location and broad category of goods. This schedule is
        reproduced in Appendix 11. The schedule also gives our estimates of the retail
        turnover of each commitment – these are given for each of the forecast years.
        Turnovers are given to the individual retail commitments and proposals and these are
        deducted from the adjusted headroom expenditure totals for each town, as
        appropriate. This calculation is set out in Tables 13 and 16 for the forecast years of
        2010 and 2015 respectively.




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6.37	   The residual headroom expenditure totals for Craigavon District as a whole and the
        constituent towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown at the forecast years of 2010
        and 2015 are summarised in Table 6.1 overleaf. Table 6.1A sets out the residual
        expenditure totals for Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.1B gives the residual expenditure
        totals for Scenario 2. We comment further on these results in Section 7.


6.38	   In our view these residual headroom expenditure totals are important because they
        provide an estimate of the amount of potential turnover which will be available to
        Craigavon District as a whole and each of its constituent towns by 2010 and 2015. In
        Section 7, we describe the last step of the assessment, which is to convert these
        residual headroom expenditures into retail floorspace requirements. However, the
        output of this last step is dependent on the application of average sales densities and
        these, in practice, are likely to vary enormously depending on the type of
        development that is proposed. For example, town centre stores comprising non-bulky
        comparison goods shopping typically trade at much higher average sales densities
        than retail warehouse style developments selling mainly bulky comparison goods. We
        would therefore recommend that appropriate weight is attached to the residual
        headroom expenditure totals, since these are not open to the same levels of
        interpretation as are the retail floorspace requirements set out in Section 7.


        Analysis: Convenience Goods


6.39	   Our retail need assessment for convenience goods floorspace follows the same
        approach as that for comparison goods. The detailed calculations underpinning the
        analysis are reproduced in full in Volume 2, Appendix 1C, Tables 1 to 13 inclusive.


        Step 1: Calculate Total Available Expenditure in the Catchment Area


6.40	   At Tables 1 to 4 inclusive, the total available convenience goods expenditure by zone
        is determined for the base year (2005) and the forecast years of 2010 and 2015. The
        analysis incorporates EBS’s estimates of average annual spending per head on
        convenience goods within each zone, together with their latest Ultra Long Term
        Trend expenditure growth projections. We again exclude expenditure by “special
        forms of trading”, although the EBS allowance is much less than for comparison
        goods shopping.



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                                                                                                                                                                         ______




Table 6.1A Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Comparison Goods: Scenario 1

Forecast Year: 2010

         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                  11.3                         10.4                        0.9                      26.81                        -25.9
Lurgan                                    -11.6                         20.1                      -31.7                       0.0                         -31.7
Portadown                                  14.2                         14.7                       -0.5                      10.72                        -11.2
Other (Settlements)                         1.6                          0.0                        1.6                       0.0                          1.6
Craigavon District                        15.5                          45.2                      -29.7                      37.5                         -67.2

Forecast Year: 2015

         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                 31.6                          11.7                       19.9                      29.93                        -10.0
Lurgan                                    -4.1                          22.7                      -26.8                       0.0                         -26.8
Portadown                                 36.6                          16.3                       20.3                      12.04                         8.3
Other (Settlements)                        3.8                           0.0                        3.8                       0.0                          3.8
Craigavon District                        67.9                          50.7                      17.2                       41.9                         -24.7

1
  Excludes an estimated £7.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

2
  Excludes an estimated £9.8 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

3
  Excludes an estimated £7.9 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

4
  Excludes an estimated £11.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

Colliers CRE                                                                                                Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                                                                                Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                                                                                         ______




Table 6.1B Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Comparison Goods: Scenario 2

Forecast Year: 2010
         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                 -3.3                          10.4                      -13.7                      26.81                        -40.5
Lurgan                                    -8.1                          20.1                      -28.2                       0.0                         -28.2
Portadown                                 24.3                          14.7                       9.6                       10.72                         -1.1
Other (Settlements)                        2.4                           0.0                       2.4                        0.0                           2.4
Craigavon District                        15.3                          45.2                      -29.9                      37.5                         -67.4

Forecast Year: 2015
         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                 13.0                          11.7                        1.3                      29.93                        -28.6
Lurgan                                     0.4                          22.7                      -22.3                       0.0                         -22.3
Portadown                                 49.5                          16.3                       33.2                      12.04                         21.2
Other (Settlements)                        4.8                           0.0                        4.8                       0.0                           4.8
Craigavon District                        67.6                          50.7                      16.9                       41.9                         -24.9

1
  Excludes an estimated £7.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

2
  Excludes an estimated £9.8 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

3
  Excludes an estimated £7.9 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

4
  Excludes an estimated £11.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail 

warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

Colliers CRE                          Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                          Department of Environment, Planning Service





        Step 2: Application of “Market Shares” to Determine Amount of Retained
        Expenditure


6.41	   Using the results of the household telephone survey we derive the base year (2005)
        market shares for Craigavon District and its three constituent towns within each of the
        16 zones1. This assessment is set out in Table 5. Applying the market shares to the
        total “pools” of available expenditure within each zone in the base year (2005) (Table
        6), gives the monetary flows of consumer spending from each of the 16 zones to
        Craigavon District and its towns. Unlike for comparison goods we do not make any
        allowance for in-flow expenditure into Craigavon District from people living outside
        our survey area. This is because food shopping is undertaken more locally than that
        for comparison goods and our survey area is sufficiently extensive to capture all such
        trips to Craigavon District. The addition of the flows from each zone gives the total
        estimated convenience goods turnover of Craigavon District as a whole and the three
        towns at the base year of 2005.


        Step 3: Determine Whether Existing Retail Economy is Trading at Equilibrium


6.42	   For convenience goods shopping, we now replicate the analysis carried out earlier in
        relation to comparison goods, and calculate the extent of any over or under-trading
        within Craigavon District and the three towns at the base year (2005). In estimating
        the equilibrium convenience goods retail turnover in the base year we have taken into
        account the overall quantity, quality and location of the existing retail offer in each
        town. Clearly without having detailed information on the allocation of convenience
        goods floorspace our benchmark turnovers are based mainly on professional
        judgement. If anything we believe we may have been too conservative and the actual
        benchmarks could be higher than those assumed. If this were to be the case then the
        levels of under-trading which we estimate would be even higher and the quantitative
        need for additional convenience goods floorspace lower. Table 6 confirms that, on
        our estimates, convenience goods floorspace in Craigavon District as a whole is
        under-trading by around £47 million in the base year (2005)




1
 This involves grouping together the expenditure flows to individual named food stores in order to
establish the overall market share of a town.


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        Step 4: Calculate Growth in Retained Expenditure through to the Forecast Years


6.43	   As for comparison goods, we adopt (under Scenario 1) constant market shares for
        each town in Craigavon District. Table 7 therefore replicates the town market shares
        in Table 6, which in turn have been derived from the household telephone survey.
        We apply the same market shares to the higher pools of available expenditure within
        Craigavon District and its three towns at each forecast year. These calculations are set
        out in Tables 8 and 11 for the forecast years of 2010 and 2015 respectively.


        Step 5: Determine Level of Potential Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years


6.44	   At Tables 9 and 12 we determine the levels of potential headroom expenditure
        within Craigavon District and its three constituent towns at the forecast years of 2010
        and 2015 respectively. As for comparison goods, it is necessary to set aside a little of
        the expenditure growth for existing retailers to account for their real gains in sales
        productivity over time.


        Step 6: Determine Level of Residual Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years


6.45	   To convert the potential headroom expenditure figures into residual headroom
        expenditure estimates, we first take into account any under-trading that currently
        exists in Craigavon District and its constituent towns in the base year (2005). Where
        such under-trading exists, some of the expenditure growth is set aside to bring the
        existing retail offer up to a retail equilibrium trading position.


6.46	   The adjusted headroom expenditure totals for Craigavon District as a whole and each
        constituent town for the forecast years 2010 and 2015 are set out in Tables 10 and 13
        respectively.


6.47	   Lastly, we take into account any existing convenience goods retail commitments and
        proposals within Craigavon District. These have been agreed with The Planning
        Service and full details including turnover estimates are set out in Appendix 11. The
        calculations to produce the residual headroom expenditure totals for the forecast years
        of 2010 and 2015 are also set out in Tables 10 and 13 respectively.




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6.48	   The residual headroom expenditure totals for convenience goods at the forecast years
        of 2010 and 2015 are summarised in Table 6.2 overleaf. Table 6.2A summarises the
        residual expenditure totals for Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.2B sets out the figures in
        relation to Scenario 2.


        Step 7: Estimate Capacity for Additional Retail Floorspace in the Forecast Years


6.49	   In Section 7 we convert these adjusted residual headroom expenditures into retail
        floorspace requirements (step 7) but, as with comparison goods, these floorspace
        estimates are entirely dependent on the average sales density applied to the
        floorspace. For this reason, we therefore recommend that appropriate weight is
        attached to the forecast quantums of residual expenditure available at the forecast
        years in relation to convenience goods.


        Summary


6.50 	 The main purpose of this section has been to assess in quantitative terms the likely
        retail expenditure capacity within Craigavon District and its three constituent towns
        through to 2015. It must be stressed, however, that any quantitative analysis over
        such a long time-period (10 years from the base year of 2005) may be subject to a
        margin of error, particularly in the later years, since it is based on a number of
        assumptions which are difficult to forecast accurately. In addition, there are three
        further key assumptions which have a material bearing on the forecast levels of
        residual headroom expenditure. These are as follows:


                •	 Special forms of trading – we have assumed that EBS’s latest published
                   estimates for “special forms of trading” for convenience goods and
                   comparison goods shopping will continue through to 2015. There is
                   currently much speculation that electronic shopping is likely to increase
                   significantly in the future. If this was to occur at a rate in excess of the
                   general real increase in consumer retail spending then the proportion of
                   retail sales taking place in conventional retail shops would decline. If this
                   were to happen the projected levels of retail expenditure capacity (and
                   retail floorspace need) would be less than those forecast in this report.




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                                                                                                                                                                         ______




Table 6.2A Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Convenience Goods: Scenario 1

Forecast Year: 2010
         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                   3.4                         0.0                         3.4                      29.21                        -25.8
Lurgan                                    -37.8                         5.9                       -43.7                       0.0                         -43.7
Portadown                                  -8.4                         0.0                        -8.4                       1.82                        -10.2
Other (Settlements)                         0.0                         0.0                         0.0                       0.0                          0.0
Craigavon District                        -42.8                         5.9                       -48.7                      31.0                         -79.7
Forecast Year: 2015
         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                4.6                           0.0                       4.6                       30.33                        -25.7
Lurgan                                 -36.9                           6.2                     -43.1                        0.0                         -43.1
Portadown                               -6.0                           0.0                      -6.0                        1.84                         -7.8
Other (Settlements)                      0.1                           0.0                       0.1                        0.0                           0.1
Craigavon District                     -38.2                           6.2                     -44.4                        32.1                        -76.5

1
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £24.5m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre 

which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

2
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £27.6m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a comparison goods 

scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

3
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £25.4m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre 

which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

4
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £28.6m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre 

which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

Colliers CRE                                                                                                Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                                                                                Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                                                                                         ______




Table 6.2B Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Convenience Goods: Scenario 2

Forecast Year:2010

         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                   2.2                         0.0                         2.2                      29.21                        -27.0
Lurgan                                    -37.4                         5.9                       -43.3                       0.0                         -43.3
Portadown                                  -7.6                         0.0                        -7.6                       1.82                         -9.4
Other (Settlements)                         0.0                         0.0                         0.0                       0.0                           0.0
Craigavon District                        -42.8                         5.9                       -48.7                      31.0                         -79.7

Forecast Year: 2015
         Town                  Headroom Expenditure                Expenditure               Headroom                   Expenditure            Headroom Expenditure
                              Before Commitments and              Reduction for           Expenditure After             Reduction for          After Commitments and
                                     Proposals                    Commitments              Commitments                   Proposals                    Proposals
                                       (£m)                           (£m)                     (£m)                        (£m)                         (£m)
Craigavon                                   2.2                         0.0                         2.2                      30.33                        -28.1
Lurgan                                    -36.2                         6.2                       -42.4                       0.0                         -42.4
Portadown                                  -4.3                         0.0                        -4.3                       1.84                         -6.1
Other (Settlements)                         0.2                         0.0                         0.2                       0.0                           0.2
Craigavon District                        -38.0                         6.2                       -44.2                      32.1                         -76.4

1
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £24.5m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre 

which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

2
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £27.6m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a comparison goods 

scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

3
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £25.4m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre 

which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

4
  Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £28.6m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre 

which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment). 

Colliers CRE                        Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service





                •	 Over / Under Trading at the base year – our household survey results
                   (Section 3) and the conclusions of our town centre health checks (Section
                   4) indicate that Craigavon District as a whole is currently under-trading in
                   both comparison goods and convenience goods, and we have taken this into
                   account in our quantitative need assessment. We accept that it is difficult to
                   establish what the true retail equilibrium position is. However, we do not
                   feel it is appropriate to ignore an existing quantitative over or under supply
                   of retail floorspace. Clearly if we have over-estimated the amount of under-
                   trading, for example, the retail expenditure capacity estimates will be
                   higher than those set out above; conversely, if we have under-estimated the
                   amount of under-trading the capacity estimates will be lower.


                •	 Constant Market Shares – assuming a constant market share for the retail
                   economy of Craigavon District as a whole through to 2015 is a sound
                   approach to take and is consistent with that adopted in many other studies.
                   This approach was agreed as being appropriate by The Planning Service.
                   However, if a strong planning case could be made for either increasing or
                   decreasing Craigavon District’s market share then this would lead to an
                   increase or decrease in the retail floorspace capacity (need) identified in
                   this study.




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7. 	   STUDY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

       Introduction


7.1	   In this final section, we address four main issues as follows:


           •	 we present our conclusions on the quantitative need for additional
                convenience goods and comparison goods retail floorspace in Craigavon
                District as a whole and the three towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown;


           •	 we also consider qualitative need issues within Craigavon District, such as
                qualitative retail deficiency and the need for urban regeneration;


           •	 given our conclusions on the vitality and viability of Craigavon, Lurgan and
                Portadown town centres, and quantitative and qualitative retail need, we
                define for each town, as appropriate, primary retail frontage designations,
                primary core designations and town centre (boundary) designations and;


           •	 lastly, we put forward a number of broad retail policy recommendations for
                consideration by The Planning Service.


       Retail Floorspace: Quantitative Need


       Comparison Goods (See Tables 6.1A and 6.1B)


7.2	   By the end of the Plan period in 2010 we estimate that there will be an additional
       £15.5 million of expenditure available to support new comparison goods retail
       floorspace in Craigavon District. However, existing retail commitments will soak up
       an estimated £45.2 million of expenditure, resulting in an expenditure deficit in 2010
       of c. £30.0 million. Adding in existing retail proposals (excluding those on sites
       where there is an existing retail commitment) produces an expenditure deficit by
       2010 of £67 million.




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7.3	   By 2015, however, there will be an estimated additional £68 million of expenditure
       available to support new comparison goods floorspace. This will be sufficient to
       support known retail commitments within Craigavon District as a whole, although
       there will be a large expenditure deficit in Lurgan. However, by 2015 there will still
       be insufficient available expenditure to support existing retail commitments and
       proposals (excluding those on sites where there is an existing retail commitment); in
       fact, the estimated expenditure deficit in Craigavon District as a whole will be around
       £25 million.


7.4	   Table 6.1A sets out the full results under Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.1B gives the
       results for Scenario 2. Scenario 2 increases the levels of future available expenditure
       at Lurgan and Portadown and decreases that at Craigavon. However, the differences
       between Scenarios 1 and 2 are modest when set against the considerable pipeline of
       comparison goods retail commitments and proposals in Craigavon District.


       Convenience Goods (See Tables 6.2A and 6.2B)


7.5	   At the end of the Plan period in 2010, we estimate there will be an expenditure deficit
       in convenience goods of £42.8 million within Craigavon District. This is mainly due
       to the considerable over-supply of floorspace that already exists (see paragraphs 7.14
       and 7.15 below). Including existing retail commitments will increase the deficit to
       £48.7 million, whilst adding in proposals (excluding those on sites where there is an
       existing retail commitment) will lift the forecast expenditure deficit in 2010 to some
       £80 million.


7.6	   Even by 2015, we estimate there will be an expenditure deficit of £38.2 million in
       Craigavon District, before commitments and proposals are taken into account. With
       commitments the expenditure shortfall will be £44.4 million, whilst adding in retail
       proposals (excluding those on sites where there is an existing retail commitment) will
       increase it to £77 million.


7.7	   Table 6.2A summarises the results under Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.2B gives the
       results for Scenario 2. However, the differences between the two scenarios are small
       in comparison to the huge expenditure shortfalls which we forecast should existing
       convenience goods retail floorspace commitments and proposals go-ahead.



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7.8	    At this stage, we should highlight that two major retail proposals within Craigavon
        District relate to sites on which there is an existing retail commitment (ie. a store /
        scheme with planning consent). In our main quantitative analysis above, in each of
        these two instances we have included the retail commitment and excluded the retail
        proposal. However, in practice, it is possible that the retail commitments may not
        proceed and that the proposals on the same sites may receive planning consent and
        get developed instead. For this reason is useful to quantify the effect of these potential
        changes to the development pipeline on the quantitative need for additional retail
        floorspace in Craigavon District.


7.9	    The two sites on which there is both a retail commitment and a retail proposal are as
        follows:


               •	 Land at Northway, Craigavon
                    -   Commitment: 3,720 sq m gross of comparison goods (Factory Outlet
                        Centre) 

                    -   Proposal: 8,360 sq m gross superstore 



               •	 Land at Edenderry, Portadown
                    -   Commitment: 10,219 sq m gross of retail warehouses
                    -   Proposal: 10,219 sq m gross superstore


        (Full details of these retail commitments and retail proposals are set out in Appendix
        11).


7.10	   Taking Northway first, if the superstore was developed instead of the comparison
        goods scheme, then on our estimates this would lead to a small decrease in the deficit
        of available comparison goods expenditure within Craigavon District in 2010 from -
        £67.2 million to -£63.8 million (assuming no changes to the rest of the assessment).
        Conversely, the shortfall of available headroom convenience goods expenditure in
        2010 would grow significantly from -£79.7 million to -£104.2 million within the
        District.




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7.11	   In relation to Edenderry, if a superstore was developed in place of the retail
        warehouses, then the deficit of available comparison goods expenditure in 2010
        within Craigavon District would fall marginally from -£67.2 million to -£63.4 million
        (again assuming no other changes). For convenience goods, however, the shortfall of
        available headroom expenditure in 2010 would rise substantially from -£79.7 million
        to -£107.3 million.


7.12	   Therefore it is clear that should one or both of the superstore proposals ultimately
        proceed instead of the existing consented comparison goods schemes, then the
        principal effect will be to materially increase the shortfall in available convenience
        goods expenditure capacity within Craigavon District at the end of the Plan period in
        2010.


        Why is there a Lack of Quantitative Need?


7.13	   As set out above, there is no quantitative need through to the end of the Plan period in
        2010 for any additional convenience goods or comparison good retail floorspace
        within Craigavon District as a whole. This is due largely to the scale of the existing
        pipeline of convenience goods and comparison goods retail commitments in the
        District.


7.14	   However, there are also a number of additional reasons for the lack of any
        quantitative need. These may be summarised as follows:


            •	 The quantitative need assessment has been carried out on the basis that
                    Craigavon District as a whole will retain its existing market shares of
                    available convenience goods and comparison goods expenditure through to
                    2010 and 2015. This assumption has been agreed with The Planning Service
                    and is consistent with strategic retail planning policy.


            •	 This assumption appears realistic, however, because the household survey
                    confirms that 84% of locally generated retail expenditure is already retained
                    within Craigavon District; this leaves little scope for the level to be increased,
                    particularly given that the major regional centres of Belfast and Sprucefield
                    are located relatively close by, as is the city of Lisburn. Moreover, as



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                indicated in Section 3, Craigavon District is already a major net importer of
                both convenience goods and comparison goods expenditure; thus little or no
                more monies can be sourced from other areas without impacting negatively
                on the retail economies of town centres in adjoining Districts.


           •	 Although population throughout the survey area is growing, it is not
                increasing particularly quickly. As such it is not driving up expenditure as
                much as in other parts of the region.


           •	 Real increases in spend per head on convenience goods and comparison
                goods in the UK are now tailing off after many years of rapid growth. Our
                use of EBS’s Ultra Long Term Trend projection for comparison goods, for
                example, in fact exceeds EBS’s expenditure forecast through to 2013 by
                0.6% per annum; thus we may have over-estimated the growth in spend per
                head.


           •	 We have incorporated into our assessment realistic estimates of the real
                growth that is occurring over time in the sales productivities of existing
                convenience goods and comparison goods retail floorspace. This is
                occasionally over-looked, but if it is ignored it would mean that some of the
                future turnover generated by the existing retail floorspace stock is used to
                justify the development of new retail floorspace. This is particularly
                inappropriate if the existing floorspace is in-town and the new floorspace is
                out of centre.


           •	 There is already a large total of retail floorspace in Craigavon District relative
                to its population and the quantum of available expenditure. This means that
                average sales densities are below what we consider are retail equilibrium
                levels, and thus under-trading appears to be widespread, particularly in the
                convenience goods sector. Consequently, there is already more retail
                floorspace than can be supported by the available expenditure at a sustainable
                and viable level.


7.15	   This last point is an especially important one and reference to the Belfast
        Metropolitan Area (BMA) illustrates it well. At 2002, for example, the entire BMA



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        (population c.650,000) had 214,179 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace
        available1, only 3.7 times the 58,481 sq m in Craigavon District (population just
        81,000). With an available convenience goods spend of £1,188 million, the
        convenience goods floorspace stock in the BMA generated average sales of £5,547
        per sq m net. This compares to just £2,594 per sq m net in Craigavon District, less
        than half. Clearly, a large proportion of Craigavon District’s existing convenience
        goods floorspace must be struggling to remain viable relative to the stock in the
        BMA. It is for this reason that we make an allowance in our quantitative need
        assessment to bring the current retail floorspace stock up to a fairly modest
        equilibrium level.


7.16	   A similar picture emerges in relation to comparison goods. At 2002 the BMA had a
        retail floorspace stock of 431,700 sq m net generating a turnover of £1,266 million.
        This translates to an average sales density of £2,933 per sq m. In Craigavon District
        an existing stock of 112,226 sq m net produces a turnover of £245 million at an
        average sales density of only £2,183 per sq m. Craigavon District’s comparison goods
        floorspace as a whole is also therefore trading poorly, although not on the same scale
        as for convenience goods.


7.17	   On top of this, Craigavon District also has a substantial quantum of additional retail
        floorspace in the development pipeline; some 26,548 sq m net of retail commitments
        (2,296 sq m convenience goods and 24,252 sq m comparison goods) and 24,946 sq m
        of retail proposals (11,183 sq m net convenience goods and 13,757 sq m net of
        comparison goods). Clearly, there is unlikely to be a quantitative need for more than a
        small proportion of this total pipeline during the Plan period to 2010.


7.18	   Moreover, it is our view that there is only a limited retail (commercial) demand for
        new floorspace in Craigavon District. Many major UK multiples seek representation
        in only the higher order centres in Northern Ireland and it is questionable whether any
        of the three towns meet their location criteria. The ranking of Craigavon, Lurgan and
        Portadown in a UK context is illustrated in Table 7.1 overleaf. This shows that
        Portadown is the highest ranked of the three towns, but still only achieves a UK-wide
        ranking of 289th, alongside towns such as Trowbridge and Newtownards. Craigavon


1
 All the BMA floorspace and turnover figures are contained in The BMAP Retail Sector Study,
prepared by Colliers CRE.


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Table 7.1 Position of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown in the UK Venuscore Ranking, 2005



Table 7.1A: Craigavon                                      Table 7.1B Portadown                                      Table 7.1C Lurgan
                                                                                                                                LOCATIO
CENTRE                        VENUESCORE UK RANK           VENUE                      VENUESCORE UK RANK             VENUE                    VENUESCORE        RANK
                                                                                                                                N TYPE
Sale                                         55      411   Leigh                            78     271               LeominsteCentre                     30       732
Deal                                         55      411   Dover                            77     278               Sidmouth Centre                     30       732
Aberystwyth                                  54      421   Evesham                          77     278               Alloa      Centre                   30       732
Urmston                                      54      421   Antrim                           76     283               Chineham Centre                     30       732
Wisbech                                      54      421   Glenrothes                       76     283               Clitheroe Centre                    30       732
Peterhead                                    54      421   Douglas (Iom)                    76     283               Nailsea    Centre                   30       732
Sutton In Ashfield                           53      425   Boscombe                         76     283               Leigh ParkCentre                    30       732
St Austell                                   53      425   Oswestry                         76     283               Herne Bay Centre                    30       732
Waltham Cross                                53      425   Newtownards                      75     289               Swadlinco Centre                    29       761
Congleton                                    53      425   Trowbridge                       75     289               Reigate Centre                      29       761
Craigavon                                    53      425   Portadown                        75     289               Lurgan     Centre                   29       761
Stroud                                       53      425   Brentwood                        74     294               WednesbuCentre                      29       761
Bicester                                     53      425   Boston                           74     294               Westbury Centre                     29       761
Paignton                                     53      425   Melton Mowbray                   74     294               Brierley H Centre                   29       761
Letchworth                                   52      435   Fleet                            73     297               Chandlers Centre                    29       761
Runcorn                                      52      435   Elgin                            73     297               Droitwich Centre                    29       761
Leek                                         52      435   Castleford                       73     297               Heswall Centre                      29       761
Grays                                        52      435   Cumbernauld                      73     297               JohnstoneCentre                     29       761
Market Harborough                            52      435   Shirley                          73     297               Chepstow Centre                     29       761
Petersfield                                  52      435   Witney                           72     303               Helston Centre                      29       761
Barry                                        52      435   Bridgend                         72     303               Bitterne Centre                     29       761

Source: Venuescore 2005 UK Shopping Venue Rankings



Javelin Group, 2005
Colliers CRE                        Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service





        is ranked 425th, comparable to town such as Stroud and Bicester, whilst Lurgan is way
        down at 781st with the likes of Reigate and Chandlers Ford.


7.19	   Of the three towns, we feel Craigavon is the most attractive to new retailers, because
        of its Debenhams department store anchor and large modern unit footplates.
        Portadown is also likely to need a department store to draw in many more multiples,
        especially those in the fashion sector. However, to build a scheme featuring a
        department store would require a relatively large number of unit shops to make it
        financially viable and we don’t believe there is the demand for this, certainly during
        the Plan period to 2010. Lurgan’s retail offer is currently too spread out to provide
        sufficient critical mass to attract multiples. The town also trades in the shadow of
        Craigavon, particularly for comparison goods.


7.20	   Our quantitative assessment of need is therefore broadly consistent with our view of
        retail demand, especially for comparison goods shopping. However, there are a
        number of retail schemes in Craigavon District which have already been granted
        planning consent (ie. the retail commitments), whilst a number of others may be
        categorised as proposals. Where there is no quantitative need for additional retail
        floorspace, should these schemes go ahead then they are likely to have the following
        effects on shopper behaviour and the existing retail offer:


            •	 they will likely divert future trade away from existing retailers in Craigavon
                District; in practice, these diversions will, at first, eat into the real growth in
                sales productivities that we have set aside for existing retailers, which, in
                itself, may undermine the economic viability of a number of shops;
                moreover, if the diversions are more substantial they are likely to result in
                some existing retail floorspace in (probably) secondary areas of the three
                towns falling out of productive use (this may be viewed as acceptable given
                the locations and perceived benefits of the new retail investment – see
                below);


            •	 they will attract into Craigavon District more of the retail expenditure which
                is generated in adjoining Districts; thus trade will be diverted from retailers
                located in towns in surrounding areas.




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November 2005                                           Department of Environment, Planning Service





        Wider Retail and Economic Considerations


7.21	   A key objective of The Planning Service within the Plan period is to maintain and
        enhance the vitality and viability of all three town centres within Craigavon District –
        Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. This, in broad terms, should lead to a continuation
        of the present shopping hierarchy within the District, which is consistent with
        strategic retail policy.


7.22	   All three towns with Craigavon District are (unusually for Northern Ireland) located
        in close proximity and have shopping catchment areas that largely overlap with one
        another, as demonstrated by the assessment presented in Section 3. This means there
        is, in practice, a strong element of competition amongst them in attracting new retail
        investment, since for many major retailers a single large store in the District may be
        sufficient for them to serve their local customer base. Over the past 5-10 years,
        Craigavon town centre has been the most successful in attracting new retail
        floorspace development, at the expense of Portadown and especially Lurgan.


7.23	   Looking forward over the remainder of the Plan period to 2010, there are clearly
        more pressing qualitative need and regeneration arguments for concentrating any
        future retail investment in Lurgan and Portadown town centres. Our health check
        assessments described in Section 4 confirm that these two town centres are in poorer
        retail and economic health than Craigavon, and therefore have the most to gain from
        new retail development. However, given Craigavon’s equal status as a town centre, a
        strict new planning policy may need to be formulated to deter further new retail
        investment at this location.


7.24	   Despite the negative impacts that will be likely to result from the development of
        additional retail floorspace within Craigavon District in excess of that for which there
        is a quantitative need (see paragraph 7.20 above), we recognise that there are broader
        (and perhaps) over-riding planning objectives to also consider. First there is a
        qualitative need for retail of certain types and in certain locations, and this was
        described at paragraph 4.83 in Section 4. In a little more detail, our position on
        qualitative retail deficiency is as follows:




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Colliers CRE                        Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service





            •	 we believe Craigavon town centre does not exhibit any material signs of
                deficiency;


            •	 Portadown could benefit from a department store and further fashion
                representation, but the town may find it difficult to support a viable scheme
                in commercial terms;


            •	 Lurgan clearly suffers from qualitative retail deficiency in comparison goods
                and also lacks (currently) a modern, large food-based superstore, although
                this need is likely to be met by a new Tesco development.


7.25	   In relation to customer choice, there may be an argument in favour of a major new
        food store operator being represented in Craigavon District, particularly if it is
        accepted that the benefits of extending choice outweigh the likely disadvantages of
        some existing convenience goods floorspace falling out of productive use. In such
        circumstances, any new store should be located on a site which will generate the
        greatest off-site spin-off benefits, particularly in so far as they may assist in town
        centre regeneration. We believe that the Edenderry site in Portadown town centre (as
        defined at paragraph 7.29 below) is likely to produce more regeneration benefits than
        an out of centre site at Craigavon, for example. Moreover, we should point out that if
        Tesco or Sainsbury were to develop a new large superstore on an out of centre site at
        Craigavon, this could have two adverse effects:


            •	 the retailer is likely to close its existing store within the Rushmere Shopping
                Centre – the primary retail core – thus directly transferring convenience
                goods floorspace from a town centre location (as defined at paragraph 7.29
                below) to an out of centre one;


            •	 the new store is likely to sell a significant quantum of comparison goods, in
                direct competition to the retail offer available within the town centre.


7.26	   We also accept that both Lurgan and Portadown town centres are in need of
        regeneration and Lurgan Forward and Portadown 2000 have set out clearly how this
        may be achieved (see paragraph 2.11 to 2.16 in Section 2). Our view is that retail can
        play an important role in economic regeneration but it must be of a form, type and in



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        a location that maximises any positive benefits and minimises any negative impacts.
        Normally such schemes are located within town centres, and preferably within the
        primary retail cores.


        Retail Boundaries, Cores and Frontages


7.27	   The Operational Specification requires us to make recommendations for the
        Craigavon District Local Plan concerning the geographical definitions of:



            •	 Town centre boundaries;
            •	 Primary retail cores within town centres;
            •	 Protected retail frontages within town centres.


7.28	   The maps of each town showing our recommended town centre boundaries, cores and
        frontages are reproduced in Figures 7.1 to 7.3 overleaf. We have defined the
        boundaries on the basis of a set of criteria which are as follows:


        Criteria for Defining Town Centre Boundaries


            •	 should include sufficient sites to meet the quantitative need for additional
                retail floorspace within the Plan period;


            •	 should include sufficient sites to accommodate any new retail development
                that is deemed to be required to meet any qualitative deficiency and / or
                regeneration need;


            •	 should be the preferred location for any future demand from the service
                sector;


            •	 should reflect, wherever possible, any natural or physical barriers that exist
                such as parks, rivers, railways and ring roads;


            •	 should reflect, wherever possible, any clear changes in property use (eg. from
                commercial to residential);



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                   Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations




Fig. 7.1 Craigavon Town Centre


Fig. 7.2 Lurgan Town Centre


Fig 7.3 Portadown Town Centre


Key


                       Town Centre Boundary
                       Primary Retail Core Boundary
                       Primary Retail Frontage Designation
These maps are available to view on the Craigavon Town Centre Plan webpage
of the Planning Service website
Colliers CRE                        Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service





           •	 should attempt to include the majority of existing and planned uses which
                have a town centre function, such as a retail, service, leisure, entertainment,
                catering, cultural, civic and offices; and


           •	 should generally focus all existing and planned commercial and civic
                investment within a relatively tightly drawn area, such that residents, workers
                and visitors can carry out linked trips and such facilities are able to function
                in a manner that is consistent with sustainability objectives.


       Criteria for Defining Primary Retail Cores


           •	 should include the majority of existing retail and retail-related activities
                found in a town centre;


           •	 should ideally be the focus of all new retail investment in a town centre
                within the Plan period;


           •	 should be the area of the town centre which attracts the vast majority of
                existing and future shoppers; and


           •	 should not be the favoured area for accommodating any future demand from
                the service sector (service uses should, wherever possible, be directed to
                locations outside the primary retail core);


       Criteria for Defining Protected Retail Frontages


           •	 should include those road or street frontages that accommodate mainly
                national comparison goods multiple retailers, including anchor stores;


           •	 should include those road or street frontages that contain the more modern,
                larger and better configured stores available in a town centre; and


           •    should encompass those road or street frontages that constitute the prime
                pitch of a town centre according to rental tone and pedestrian footfall.




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        Town Centre Boundaries


7.29	   This type of boundary is designed to define what geographically constitutes a town
        centre. We have defined town centre boundaries for Craigavon, Lurgan and
        Portadown. Our location specific rationale for defining the three town centre
        boundaries is as follows:


            •	 Craigavon – We are recommending a more confined town centre boundary
                to restrict traditional town centre activities within a more concentrated area.
                This action should promote the development of a more vibrant and traditional
                town centre environment.


            •	 Lurgan – The recommended boundary broadly mirrors the previously
                established town centre boundary. The revised boundary is physically
                constrained on two sides; to the north by Lurgan Park, and to the south west
                by the inner relief road. To the south west, the town’s boundary comes to a
                natural interface with the residential suburban sprawl making this interchange
                an obvious termination point of the town centre boundary.


            •	 Portadown – The revised town centre boundary is physically constrained to
                the north west by the railway line, to the south by an identifiable change in
                land use from commercial to residential and on its western boundary by the
                River Bann.


                We are recommending that the revised town boundary straddles the River
                Bann. The inclusion of the Edenderry district will facilitate regeneration and
                will also centralise the River Bann within the town centre itself.


                The River Bann offers an excellent regeneration opportunity, although this
                has not yet been recognised by the development market. The revised town
                centre boundary should facilitate development on this unique focal point.




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Colliers CRE                             Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                             Department of Environment, Planning Service





           Primary Retail Cores


7.30	      A primary retail core1 defines the main focus of existing and future retail activity
           within a town centre. The primary retail cores cover a much smaller area than the
           town centre as a whole. We have defined primary retail cores for Craigavon, Lurgan
           and Portadown town centres and our location specific rationale is set out below:


                •	 Craigavon – a primary retail core is defined in its most simplistic form by
                     the enclosed mall component of the existing Rushmere Shopping Centre.


                •	 Lurgan – Lurgan traditionally has exhibited the traditional traits of a market
                     town with retail development proliferating in a linear fashion along Market
                     Street and onto High Street. This has prevented cluster development
                     occurring and, to an extent, continuous comparison goods retail frontages
                     occurring.


                    In order to concentrate and focus primary retail within a core area, we are
                    recommending that the existing configuration and extent of the prime retail
                    core is reduced. We believe that confining the primary retail core to Market
                    Street and providing depth to the town centre, should encourage development
                    opportunities to be identified and realised.


                •	 Portadown – The primary retail core is determined by a combination of
                     physical constraints and also the proximity of existing built retail
                     development. The railway line and the north way enclose the town centre on
                     its northern boundary where High Street Mall and Magowan Buildings are
                     positioned. To the south west, the Meadows Centre is positioned on the
                     banks of the River Bann which again prevents further encroachment beyond.
                     As a result, the primary retail core sits as a triangle in shape, bounded by the
                     River Bann, the north way and on its southern boundary, by residential
                     development.




1
    Primary retail core areas are mentioned in PPS 5, paragraph 23.


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        Protected Retail Frontages


7.31	   A protected retail frontage defines that part of a town centre which should be retained
        in retail use. Accordingly, planning policy should resist the change of use of units in
        these frontages away from retail, whilst existing non-retail uses in these frontages
        should be encouraged through the planning process to revert to retail use when there
        is a change of ownership and / or they become vacant. Protected retail frontages have
        been defined for Lurgan and Portadown town centres (and not Craigavon, see below).
        The location specific rationale behind our designations is as follows:


            •	 Craigavon – We do not feel that any frontages need protecting in Craigavon.
                In any event virtually all of the retail accommodation is in the Rushmere
                Shopping Centre, and as described in Section 4 (paragraph 4.19), the main
                malls are dominated by retail stores, whilst the few service uses are mainly
                located in the secondary areas of the centre.


            •	 Lurgan – Primary retail frontages are defined as those frontages that have
                attracted or are likely to attract high calibre UK or Northern Irish multiple
                retailers. These frontages provide the key retail character to Lurgan town
                centre.


            •	 Portadown – The primary retail frontages are clearly defined on the ground
                by West Street, Market Street and High Street, where there is the greatest
                representation of UK and Northern Irish multiple retailers. This environment
                provides the most recognisable retail environment within Portadown town
                centre. This definition connects the Magowan West and High Street Mall
                Shopping Centres on the north side of the High Street, whilst also protecting
                the facing frontages on the south side.


        Key Conclusions and Policy Recommendations


7.32	   Our key study conclusions and recommendations to The Planning Service are as
        follows:




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           •	 during the remainder of the Plan period to 2010, the overall objective must be
                to maintain and enhance the vitality and viability of all three town centres in
                Craigavon District – Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown – thus maintaining,
                in broad terms, the existing shopping hierarchy in accordance with strategic
                retail planning policy;


           •	 over the past 5-10 years, Craigavon has attracted most of the new retail
                investment in the District, at the expense of Lurgan and Portadown;


           •	 as a result, Portadown and (particularly) Lurgan are now in poorest retail and
                economic health; this being consistent with our conclusions on qualitative
                retail deficiency and the recognised need for regeneration in each town and
                the plans and proposals put forward by Portadown 2000 and Lurgan Forward;


           •	 thus any new retail investment should ideally be directed towards Lurgan and
                Portadown town centres in order that the regeneration benefits of such
                investment are maximised;


           •	 however, given Craigavon’s status as a ‘town centre’, it is difficult under
                current retail planning policy to prevent further retail investment at
                Craigavon, which is likely to be the location of choice for the retail industry;


           •	 we therefore recommend that The Planning Service formulate a strict
                planning policy for Craigavon town centre that will prevent material amounts
                of additional retail floorspace being developed at this location during the Plan
                period;


           •	 in terms of quantitative need, the existing pipeline of retail commitments and
                proposals within Craigavon District already far exceeds the available
                potential expenditure by the end of the Plan period in 2010 and also by 2015;


           •	 if all (or most) of this new retail development actually gets built, then this is
                likely to divert sales away from the existing retail offer within Craigavon
                District, which, in turn, will lead to some of the present retail floorspace in
                the District falling out of productive use – striking the right balance between


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                encouraging new retail investment in Craigavon District, particularly where
                there is a recognised qualitative deficiency and it would act as a stimulus to
                economic regeneration, and accepting that some existing retail floorspace
                will fall out of use, is a judgement call for The Planning Service;


           •	 the boundaries we have defined for the town centres, in our view, contain
                sufficient sites or available physical capacity to accommodate the quantums
                of identified need through to the end of the Plan period in 2010;


           •	 the retail need conclusions and policy recommendations set out in this study
                should be revisited after 2010.




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CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDICES

CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

          PLANNING SERVICE





              APPENDIX 1

    The Operational Specification (Extract)
 CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

     AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




      DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

              PLANNING SERVICE





                  APPENDIX 2

Commissioner’s Report on Public Inquiry into Craigavon 

                Local Plan (Extract) 

CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

          PLANNING SERVICE





              APPENDIX 3

     Schedule of Consultations Undertaken
Colliers CRE                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                    Department of Environment, Planning Service





                              Schedule of Consultees


Face to face meetings have been held with the following key stakeholders as part of
the preparation of this study and Colliers CRE would like to thank these organisations
for their valuable comments and suggestions.


   •   Lurgan Chamber of Trade
   •   Lurgan Forward
   •   Portadown Chamber of Commerce
   •   Portadown 2000
   •   Craigavon Borough Council
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





           APPENDIX 4

       Household Telephone Survey
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

         PLANNING SERVICE





            APPENDIX 4A

      Survey Methodology and Sampling
Colliers CRE                                  Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                  Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                      __________




                                             The Household Survey

•	 The household telephone survey throughout Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland
   provides robust data to inform our assessment of retail floor space need/capacity. It allows us to
   determine:


      -     town catchment areas for convenience goods and comparison goods shopping; 

      -     the extent of catchment area overlap between towns; 

      -     the geographical trade penetration of towns; 

      -     the levels and pattern of consumer expenditure retention and leakage; 

      -     estimates of the retail turnover of towns;

      -     consumer attitudes towards different towns. 



•	 The household survey area (agreed with The Planning Service prior to the fieldwork) is shown in
   Figure 3.1 in the main report, while a table later in this Appendix gives the achieved sample size
   for each of the 16 survey zones. Interviewees were confined to that member of each household
   responsible for most of the shopping. We successfully carried out 1,504 telephone interviews
   across Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland; this is a large survey by any standards and
   provides a strong empirical underpinning to the study.


•	 Results from the household survey have been re-weighted to provide total information
   representative of the overall survey area, taking into account the relative number of households in
   each of the survey zones. This procedure allows us to analyse differences in behaviour and attitudes
   within different areas of the catchment, whilst providing a thoroughly representative sample of the
   whole.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 4B

             Key Results
Colliers CRE                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 1: AGE AND GENDER OF RESPONDENTS (%)

                  Zone                                   Age                                  Gender
                              16-24   25-34   35-44    45-54   55-64   65+    Refused    Male     Female
 1   Maghery                   1.1     7.4     13.8     18.1    14.9   44.7     0.0      24.5      75.5
 2   Portadown                 3.0     7.9     17.8     17.8    23.8   29.7     0.0      19.8      80.2
 3   Bann Valley               0.0     5.6     14.8     22.2    20.4   35.2     1.9      25.9      74.1
 4   Craigavon                 3.2     11.7    20.2     16.0    18.1   28.7     2.1      33.0      67.0
 5   Lurgan                    1.1     3.2     11.7     9.6     22.3   50.0     1.1      21.3      78.7
 6   Magheralin                1.1     5.3     22.1     30.5    21.1   20.0     0.0      27.4      72.6
 7   Waringstown               1.3     5.2     15.6     23.4    19.5   33.8     1.3      22.1      77.9
 8   Lisburn West              0.0     6.4     17.0     16.0    21.3   37.2     2.1      29.8      70.2
 9   Lisburn East              1.1     6.4     19.1     14.9    13.8   44.7     0.0      33.0      67.0
10   Banbridge West            3.2     11.7    21.3     12.8    19.1   31.9     0.0      25.5      74.5
11   Banbridge East            0.0     12.8    21.3     20.2    22.3   23.4     0.0      24.5      75.5
12   Armagh East               2.1     12.8    18.1     23.4    21.3   22.3     0.0      30.9      69.1
13   Armagh North              7.4     6.2     16.0     14.8    28.4   27.2     0.0      23.5      76.5
14   Armagh West               7.5     12.9    9.7      12.9    16.1   36.6     4.3      22.6      77.4
15   Dungannon                 11.8    6.5     16.1     17.2    17.2   28.0     3.2      10.8      89.2
16   Dungannon East            8.4     10.8    16.9     21.7    16.9   25.3     0.0      15.7      84.3
     Average                   3.3     8.4     17.1     16.7    18.4   35.0     1.0      25.5      74.5


TABLE 2: SAMPLE PROFILE (%)

                                                      Social Grade
Zone
                               AB      C1      C2        D       E1    E2     Refused Total
 1 Maghery                    10.6    20.2    25.2      2.1     31.9   3.2      6.4     100.0
 2 Portadown                   4.0    17.8    22.8      14.9    26.7   7.9      5.9     100.0
 3 Bann Valley                14.8    38.9    14.8      3.7     13.0   0.0     14.8     100.0
 4 Craigavon                   9.6     8.5    19.1      10.6    36.2   8.5      7.4     100.0
 5 Lurgan                      6.4     8.5     6.4      10.6    63.8   2.1      2.1     100.0
 6 Magheralin                 26.3    20.0    30.5      17.9    0.0    1.1      4.2     100.0
 7 Waringstown                16.9    27.3    29.9      7.8     11.7   0.0      6.5     100.0
 8 Lisburn West               11.7    17.0    17.0      5.3     39.4   6.4      3.2     100.0
 9 Lisburn East               17.0    22.3    18.1      13.8    11.7   5.3     11.7     100.0
10 Banbridge West             20.2    30.9    18.1      20.2    3.2    3.2      4.3     100.0
11 Banbridge East              6.4    17.0    41.5      3.2     16.0   5.3     10.6     100.0
12 Armagh East                 6.4    26.6    33.0      9.6     18.1   3.2      3.2     100.0
13 Armagh North               14.8    13.6    17.3      14.8    25.9   4.9      8.6     100.0
14 Armagh West                 5.4    14.0    15.1      14.0    46.2   1.1      4.3     100.0
15 Dungannon                   7.5    16.1    20.4      14.0    35.5   5.4      1.1     100.0
16 Dungannon East              6.0    28.9    19.3      10.8    21.7   3.6      9.6     100.0
     Average                  11.7    20.9    19.7      11.7    24.6   4.2      7.2     100.0




                                       HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                               Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                            Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 3: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - FREQUENCY OF VISIT TO MAIN CENTRE(%)



                                                                   More than              2-3 times a   Once a   Once every    Once every                Don't know /
Centre                                                                        Once a week                                                   Less often                   Total
                                                                  once a week               month       month    2-3 months    4-6 months                  Varies

Armagh                                                                5.2         19.2         8.8       19.6       24.8          14.5          7.8           0.0        100.0
Banbridge                                                             4.5         11.3        10.8       21.2       23.0          14.3          7.4           7.5        100.0
Belfast - City Centre                                                 1.9         15.3        14.7       27.8       24.1           4.8          4.4           6.9        100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                                 16.9         28.3        18.4       23.0       7.6            2.3          1.8           1.7        100.0
Dungannon                                                             9.0         31.1        12.7       28.0       5.3            8.3          2.9           2.7        100.0
Lisburn                                                               5.5         18.2         9.4       26.2       15.3           7.4          4.4          13.5        100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                     0.0         12.5        10.7       21.5       25.7           0.0          9.4          20.3        100.0
Lurgan                                                                6.7         27.1         7.9       20.1       12.5          13.8          8.6           3.3        100.0
Newry                                                                 0.0         13.0        30.3       21.7       22.4           6.9          1.6           4.2        100.0
Portadown                                                            10.3         30.6        17.2       16.8       12.2           6.4          3.3           3.3        100.0
Average                                                               7.2         20.9        13.2       23.6        15            7.7          5.7           6.8        100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                         HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                                                                                             Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                          Department of Environment, Planning Service





TABLE 4: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - REASON FOR VISITING MAIN CENTRE (%)

                                                                                    Good
                                                               Close                           Good    Pedestrianised   Good       Good /                             Part of joint     More         Friends / Friends /  Habit /
                                                                          Close   choice of                                                 Ease      Free /   Good                                                                           Don't know /
                                                                 to                           range of    streets /     value      cheap                                to trip to   convenient /     family    family   familiar /
                         Centre                                             to     shops /                                                   of       cheap   quality                                                                 Other   no particular   Total
                                                               home /                          major     attractive      for       public                             other facility easier to get      live     take     always
                                                                          work    range of                                                 parking   parking products                                                                            reason
                                                             convenient                        stores   environment     money    transport                               / centre         to           there      me     go there
                                                                                   stores
Armagh                                                            63.9     0.0      18.1        2.6         0.0          2.6       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        0.0      12.9        0.0         100.0
Banbridge                                                         62.7     0.0      12.8        7.2         0.5          0.0       0.0       0.5       0.0      10.0        1.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        1.0       4.2        0.0         100.0
Belfast - City Centre                                             15.8     1.0      47.7        9.5         0.3          0.6       6.9       0.0       0.0      17.1        0.7           0.0          0.0        0.0        0.0       0.5        0.0         100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                              44.5     0.5      33.9        5.3         1.0          0.0       0.0       3.3       0.0       2.1        0.0           1.2          0.0        0.3        0.0       7.2        0.0         100.0
Dungannon                                                         90.6     0.0       6.6        0.0         0.0          0.0       0.0       0.6       0.0       0.0        0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        0.8       1.4        0.0         100.0
Lisburn                                                           43.9     3.0      20.6        9.0         0.3          5.9       0.0       0.8       0.0      14.1        0.0           0.3          0.0        0.0        0.2       1.6        0.4         100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                 22.1     0.0      28.2        7.0         3.4          0.0       0.0       1.4       0.0      32.0        0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        0.0       5.9        0.0         100.0
Lurgan                                                            78.3     0.0       8.5        0.0         0.6          1.7       0.6       2.7       0.0       2.5        0.6           0.0          0.0        0.0        0.6       3.2        0.6         100.0
Newry                                                             33.5     0.0      42.7        7.0         1.7          1.4       0.0       0.8       3.6       4.2        2.2           0.0          0.8        0.0        0.0       2.0        0.0         100.0
Portadown                                                         75.7     1.7      17.7        1.0         0.6          0.9       0.0       0.0       0.2       0.4        0.5           0.0          0.0        0.3        0.4       0.4        0.2         100.0
Average                                                           53.3     1.2      23.2        5.1         0.6          2.6       0.6       0.9       0.3       7.5        0.6           0.2          0.1        0.1        0.3       3.2        0.3         100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                                                                HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                          Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                       Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 5: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT TO MAIN CENTRE(%)

                                                                                  Car
                                                                  Car Driver                 Bus     Train   Walked          Taxi        Other        Total
Centre                                                                         passenger
Armagh                                                               50.0         18.6       10.8     0.0     10.3            7.7          2.6        100.0
Banbridge                                                            73.2         12.8        1.0     0.0     12.9            0.0          0.0        100.0
Belfast - City Centre                                                73.6         7.1        15.8     1.7     1.8             0.0          0.0        100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                                 75.5         15.9        3.3     0.0     2.7             2.6          0.0        100.0
Dungannon                                                            53.3         29.7       11.5     0.0     2.8             2.8          0.0        100.0
Lisburn                                                              66.6         15.3       13.4     0.9     3.5             0.4          0.0        100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                    79.2         12.6        8.2     0.0     0.0             0.0          0.0        100.0
Lurgan                                                               51.4         14.3       10.3     0.0     21.1            2.9          0.0        100.0
Newry                                                                76.7         17.0        5.5     0.0     0.8             0.0          0.0        100.0
Portadown                                                            70.4         9.9         6.2     0.2     12.6            0.6          0.0        100.0
Average                                                              67.5         15.0        9.0     0.4     6.4             1.4          0.3        100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.

TABLE 6: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY ZONE (%)

                                                                  5 mins or      6-10        11-15   16-20   21-25           26-30       Over
                                                                                                                                                      Total
Zone                                                                less         mins        mins    mins    mins            mins       30 mins
1 Maghery                                                            2.3         55.2         37.9    3.4     0.0              0.0        1.1         100.0
2 Portadown                                                         39.8         28.6         16.3    9.2     0.0              4.1        2.0         100.0
3 Bann Valley                                                       17.6         56.9         15.7    2.0     3.9              0.0        3.9         100.0
4 Craigavon                                                         32.4         35.1         10.8    9.5     0.0              4.1        8.1         100.0
5 Lurgan                                                            15.9         25.4         20.6    17.5    4.8             11.1        4.8         100.0
6 Magheralin                                                         2.3         16.3         23.3    27.9    9.3              8.1        12.8        100.0
7 Waringstown                                                        1.3         47.4         19.7    21.1    6.6              2.6        1.3         100.0
8 Lisburn West                                                      23.5         23.5         29.4    15.3    0.0              7.1        1.2         100.0
9 Lisburn East                                                      16.0         25.3         26.7    13.3    2.7              2.7        13.3        100.0
10 Banbridge West                                                   15.9         12.2         15.9    35.4    4.9              2.4        13.4        100.0
11 Banbridge East                                                    3.3          9.9         11.0    35.2    4.4             14.3        22.0        100.0
12 Armagh East                                                       1.1         25.3         27.5    23.1    5.5              8.8        8.8         100.0
13 Armagh North                                                      1.4         36.6         28.2    15.5    7.0              4.2        7.0         100.0
14 Armagh West                                                       9.8          6.6         26.2    21.3    8.2             16.4        11.5        100.0
15 Dungannon                                                         8.6         18.6         17.1    21.4    5.7              7.1        21.4        100.0
16 Dungannon East                                                   12.0         21.3         13.3    12.0    9.3             10.7        21.3        100.0
Average                                                             14.8         24.4         21.7    17.4    4.2              6.5        11.0        100.0



                                                                                        HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                          Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                       Department of Environment, Planning Service





TABLE 7: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY CENTRE (%)

                                                                  5 mins or   6-10                   16-20                               Over 30
                                                                                        11-15 mins           21-25mins    26-30mins                   Total
Centre                                                              less      mins                   mins                                 mins
Armagh                                                              16.1      15.7         41.0       15.5     3.2            6.4          2.1        100.0
Banbridge                                                           16.6      25.8         22.8       29.9     0.0            3.1          1.8        100.0
Belfast - City Centre                                                0.0       5.6         12.6       16.2     6.4            8.8         50.3        100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                                13.2      25.9         19.5       23.0     9.2            5.8          3.3        100.0
Dungannon                                                           17.0      37.9         20.5       6.1      6.6            4.0          7.9        100.0
Lisburn                                                             19.9      26.5         22.9       15.7     3.0            6.4          5.6        100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                    9.1      22.0         34.0       10.1     2.8            5.7         16.2        100.0
Lurgan                                                              21.1      43.9         17.9       10.0     3.3            3.1          0.6        100.0
Newry                                                                2.8       6.4         10.4       34.7     10.4          13.7         21.5        100.0
Portadown                                                           17.7      33.2         21.4       18.1     1.6            5.2          2.9        100.0
Average                                                             14.8      24.4         21.7       17.4     4.2            6.5         11.0        100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.


TABLE 7a: ORIGIN OF JOURNEY TO MAIN CENTRE (NON-BULKY GOODS)
Centre                                          Home      Work                            Other      Total
Armagh                                           97.4      2.6                             0.0       100.0
Banbridge                                       100.0      0.0                             0.0       100.0
Belfast - City Centre                            98.2      1.8                             0.0       100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre             99.0      1.0                             0.0       100.0
Dungannon                                       100.0      0.0                             0.0       100.0
Lisburn                                          96.7      2.9                             0.4       100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                98.6      1.4                             0.0       100.0
Lurgan                                          100.0      0.0                             0.0       100.0
Newry                                           100.0      0.0                             0.0       100.0
Portadown                                        99.3      0.5                             0.2       100.0
Average                                          98.6      1.3                             0.1       100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                     HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                              Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 8: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - CENTRE USED FOR OCCASIONAL / CHRISTMAS SHOPPING BY ZONE (%)

                                                                                                           Survey Zone
Centre
                                             1      2       3       4       5       6       7       8          9       10     11      12      13       14      15      16      Ave
Armagh                                      1.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0       0.0     0.0     0.0     5.3     3.7     21.5     2.2     1.2      2.6
Banbridge                                   1.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     6.6     1.1       0.0     17.0    10.6    1.1     0.0      0.0     0.0     0.0      2.1
Belfast - City Centre                       7.4    11.9     5.6    23.4    21.3    13.7    14.5     5.4       20.2    4.3     12.8    14.9    12.3    11.8    12.0    18.5     14.1
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre        9.6    3.0      7.4    29.8    6.4     25.3    9.2      2.2       0.0     5.3     0.0     2.1     2.5     2.2     7.6     0.0       4.1
Dungannon                                   2.1     0.0     1.9     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0       0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0      0.0     9.8    18.5      2.4
Lisburn                                     7.4     1.0     3.7    10.6    11.7    24.2    13.2    69.9       43.6    6.4     20.2    8.5     7.4      2.2    12.0     7.4     22.4
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park           0.0     0.0     0.0     3.2     1.1     3.2     2.6     0.0       2.1     2.1     1.1     1.1     2.5      0.0     2.2     0.0      1.2
Lurgan                                      0.0     0.0     3.7     5.3    16.0    15.8     9.2     0.0       0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     1.2      0.0     0.0     0.0      1.8
Newry                                       4.3     0.0     1.9     0.0     1.1     4.2     1.3     0.0       0.0     14.9    45.7    21.3    2.5     20.4     0.0     3.7      6.8
Portadown                                   54.3   42.6    35.2     3.2     2.1     1.1     6.6     1.1       0.0     11.7    0.0     33.0    17.3     4.3     9.8     6.2      9.4
Average                                     0.0     0.0     1.9     1.1     4.3     2.1     1.3     0.0       1.1     0.0     3.2     4.3     4.9      0.0     3.3     8.6      2.1
Other                                       12.7   41.5    38.7    23.4    36.0    10.4    35.5    20.3       33.0    38.3    6.4     8.4     45.7    37.6    41.1    35.9     31.0
Total                                      100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0     100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0    100.0   100.0   100.0    100.0




                                                                           HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                                  Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                               Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 9: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - FREQUENCY OF VISIT TO MAIN CENTRE (%)


                                                                                                                          Once         Once
                                                                   More than                  2-3 times a     Once a                                 Less      Don't know /
Centre                                                                          Once a week                               every        every                                     Total
                                                                  once a week                   month         month                                  often       Varies
                                                                                                                       2-3 months   4-6 months
Armagh                                                                0.0           0.9           0.0           0.0         0.0         5.2          92.1            1.8          100
Banbridge                                                             0.0           0.9           3.3          12.7        15.4        33.2          21.4           13.1          100
Belfast - City Centre                                                 0.0           0.0          15.3          15.3         4.5        19.5          45.5            0.0          100
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                                  0.0           4.7           6.0           9.4         8.8        18.5          48.4            4.1          100
Dungannon                                                             0.0           0.0           0.0           0.8         2.2        12.9          81.9            2.2          100
Lisburn                                                               0.0           0.0           0.0           8.8         7.8        26.7          20.9           35.8          100
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                     0.0           0.0           0.8           1.1         3.6        34.7          24.8           35.0          100
Lurgan                                                                0.0           0.9           0.9           2.7         4.3        16.6          72.6            1.9          100
Newry                                                                 0.0           0.0           1.4           2.9         4.4        28.6          57.0            5.7          100
Portadown                                                             1.5           2.3           1.1           7.1        13.2        22.0          42.9            9.9          100
Average                                                               0.2           1.0           2.7           5.7         8.7        21.8          45.0           14.9          100
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                                        HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                                                                                            Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                         Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 10: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - REASON FOR VISITING MAIN CENTRE (%)


                                                                                          Good choice Good       Pedestrianised               Good /                                  Part of joint       More                 Habit /             Don't know
                                                                   Close to                                                      Good                    Ease      Free /     Good                                 Friends /
                                                                               Close to    of shops / range of      streets /                 cheap                                    to trip to     convenient /            familiar /               / no
Centre                                                              home /                                                      value for                 of       cheap     quality                                family                 Other                 Total
                                                                                work        range of   major       attractive                 public                                 other facility /    easier              always go              particular
                                                                  convenient                                                     money                  parking   parking   products                               take me
                                                                                             stores    stores     environment               transport                                   centre          to get to               there                reason
Armagh                                                               74.4        0.0         9.8        3.2           0.0         5.6          0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        7.0        0.0       100.0
Banbridge                                                            46.3        4.2         13.0       12.6          3.2         6.5          0.0        0.0       0.0        9.3         0.0           2.2          0.0        2.7        0.0        0.0       100.0
Belfast - City Centre                                                23.5        1.5         58.2       1.5           0.0         15.3         0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0       100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                                 57.8        1.6         25.7       2.7           0.3         2.6          0.7        4.5       0.8        0.0         0.4           1.2          0.0        0.0        1.7        0.0       100.0
Dungannon                                                            81.9        2.1         12.4       0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        1.5        2.1       100.0
Lisburn                                                              37.8        0.3         34.4       12.6          0.3         2.5          2.5        0.0       0.0        2.5         0.0           0.0          0.0        0.2        2.6        4.2       100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                    40.2        1.5         29.6       15.9          0.0         4.4          0.0        1.5       5.2        0.0         0.4           0.6          0.0        0.0        0.7        0.0       100.0
Lurgan                                                               85.0        0.0         5.5        0.0           0.0         4.6          0.0        0.0       0.0        0.9         0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        4.0        0.0       100.0
Newry                                                                55.3        0.0         23.9       9.8           0.0         0.0          0.0        1.6       0.0        2.8         0.0           0.0          0.0        0.0        3.7        2.8       100.0
Portadown                                                            83.8        1.0         9.3        1.7           0.5         1.5          0.0        0.7       0.0        0.0         0.0           0.5          0.0        0.0        0.5        0.4       100.0
Average                                                              56.0        1.5         23.1       5.7           0.2         3.7          0.4        1.9       1.4        1.8         0.1           0.3          0.1        0.1        1.9        1.6       100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                                                                   HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                         Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                      Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 11: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT TO MAIN CENTRE (%)

                                                                                   Car -
Centre                                                            Car - Driver               Bus        Train       Walked   Taxi           Total
                                                                                 passenger
Armagh                                                               64.6           16.7     2.3         0.0         9.4      7.0            100
Banbridge                                                            79.6           7.4      0.0         0.0         13.0     0.0            100
Belfast - City Centre                                                89.5           10.5     0.0         0.0         0.0      0.0            100
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                                 67.6           19.7     6.3         0.0         2.3      4.1            100
Dungannon                                                            66.0           27.3     3.0         0.0         2.1      1.7            100
Lisburn                                                              66.8           14.5     13.6        0.0         2.6      2.6            100
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                    75.5           21.4     3.1         0.0         0.0      0.0            100
Lurgan                                                               48.3           18.8     1.8         0.0         29.6     1.4            100
Newry                                                                67.8           25.3     6.9         0.0         0.0      0.0            100
Portadown                                                            70.6           14.7     6.0         0.0         8.4      0.4            100
Average                                                              72.7           19.7     6.3         0.1         4.5      1.5            100
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.


TABLE 12: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY ZONE (%)

                                                                    5 mins         6-10      11-15      16-20       21-25    26-30        Over 30
Zone                                                                                                                                                      Total
                                                                    or less        mins      mins       mins        mins     mins          mins
1 Maghery                                                             1.2          52.4       41.5       4.9         0.0      0.0           0.0            100
2 Portadown                                                          28.6          28.6       27.4       11.9        0.0      2.4           1.2            100
3 Bann Valley                                                        21.7          56.5       17.4       2.2         2.2      0.0           0.0            100
4 Craigavon                                                          33.3          25.5       9.8        5.9         0.0      3.9          21.6            100
5 Lurgan                                                             22.0          32.0       20.0       16.0        0.0      6.0           4.0            100
6 Magheralin                                                          6.5          20.8       22.1       22.1        5.2      13.0         10.4            100
7 Waringstown                                                         2.9          58.8       26.5       8.8         1.5      0.0           1.5            100
8 Lisburn West                                                       27.9          29.4       22.1       11.8        1.5      7.4           0.0            100
9 Lisburn East                                                       21.4          30.4       26.8       10.7        0.0      3.6           7.1            100
10 Banbridge West                                                    23.7           6.8       23.7       25.4        5.1      3.4          11.9            100
11 Banbridge East                                                     5.5          16.4       12.3       26.0        8.2      6.8          24.7            100
12 Armagh East                                                       12.2          11.0       35.4       25.6        8.5      3.7           3.7            100
13 Armagh North                                                       5.6          38.9       33.3       9.3         7.4      0.0           5.6            100
14 Armagh West                                                       18.9          17.0       30.2       17.0        3.8      3.8           9.4            100
15 Dungannon                                                         13.1          23.0       13.1       14.8        6.6      11.5         18.0            100
16 Dungannon East                                                    25.8          24.2       11.3       9.7         8.1      4.8          16.1            100
Average                                                              19.8          27.2       23.1       13.8        3.3      4.4           8.4            100




                                                                                                 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                              Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                           Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 13: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY CENTRE (%)

                                                                  5 mins    6-10   11-15      16-20       21-25   26-30        Over 30
Centre                                                                                                                                         Total
                                                                  or less   mins   mins       mins        mins    mins          mins
Armagh                                                             23.4     24.0   31.6       15.0         3.6    2.3            0.0            100
Banbridge                                                          33.5     18.2   23.0       11.5         1.9    2.3            9.6            100
Belfast - City Centre                                               0.0     19.7   3.0        0.0          0.0    19.8           57.5           100
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre                               14.2     31.1   28.6       17.7         0.7    4.9            2.9            100
Dungannon                                                          27.3     32.6   14.8       10.2         5.8    5.1            4.3            100
Lisburn                                                            29.5     29.4   24.6       8.3          1.2    5.4            1.6            100
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park                                  20.9     26.2   24.4       12.7         1.7    5.6            8.6            100
Lurgan                                                             28.1     38.3   15.6       12.5         0.0    3.1            2.4            100
Newry                                                               4.4     10.0   21.9       37.4         6.3    0.0            20.0           100
Portadown                                                          19.4     37.8   26.5       6.5          2.3    3.1            4.4            100
Average                                                            19.8     27.1   23.1       13.8         3.3    4.4            8.4            100
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.


TABLE 13a: ORIGIN OF JOURNEY TO MAIN CENTRE (BULKY GOODS)
Centre                                    Home         Work                        Other      Total
Armagh                                    100.0         0.0                         0.0       100.0
Banbridge                                  96.8         3.2                         0.0       100.0
Belfast - City Centre                     100.0         0.0                         0.0       100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre       98.8         1.2                         0.0       100.0
Dungannon                                 100.0         0.0                         0.0       100.0
Lisburn                                   100.0         0.0                         0.0       100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park          98.5         1.5                         0.0       100.0
Lurgan                                    100.0         0.0                         0.0       100.0
Newry                                     100.0         0.0                         0.0       100.0
Portadown                                 100.0         0.0                         0.0       100.0
Average                                    99.4         0.5                         0.2       100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                       HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                           Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                        Department of Environment, Planning Service



TABLE 14: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - DAY OF THE WEEK WHICH MAIN FOOD IS UNDERTAKEN (%)

                                                                 Weekdays    Weekdays
                                                                                                                      Varies / No
Store                                                            (Mon-Fri)   (Mon-Fri)       Saturday       Sunday                     Total
                                                                                                                     particular time
                                                                  Daytime     Evening
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                  33.2          9.3            15.9         1.7          39.8          99.9
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                             62.0         15.1            3.4          0.0          19.5         100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                                 49.4         17.6            2.9          0.0          30.1         100.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                   43.9          6.9            15.3         0.0          33.9         100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                   46.7         13.3            6.7          0.0          33.3         100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                        45.2          5.5            6.6          0.0          42.6          99.9
Lisburn- Greens                                                    57.7          0.0            0.0          0.0          42.3         100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                             34.9         23.1            12.3         0.0          29.8         100.1
Lurgan - Tesco                                                     71.8          8.1            9.6          0.5          10.0         100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                             75.3          0.0            0.0          0.0          24.7         100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                               48.5         19.6            9.6          1.0          21.4         100.1
Average                                                            51.6         10.2            9.3          0.3          28.7         100.1
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.


TABLE 15: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - ORIGIN OF TRIP TO MAIN FOOD CENTRE / STORE (%)

                                                                                           Home of Friend
Store                                                             Home         Work                         Other        Total
                                                                                              / Family
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                  98.3         1.7              0.0         0.0         100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                             95.2         2.5              0.0         2.3         100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                                 97.6         2.4              0.0         0.0         100.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                   96.6         2.4              1.1         0.0         100.1
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                   100.0        0.0              0.0         0.0         100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                        97.5         1.6              0.0         0.9         100.0
Lisburn- Greens                                                    97.8         2.2              0.0         0.0         100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                             95.5         4.5              0.0         0.0         100.0
Lurgan - Tesco                                                     98.3         1.2              0.0         0.5         100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                             100.0        0.0              0.0         0.0         100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                               98.4         1.6              0.0         0.0         100.0
Average                                                            97.3         2.3              0.1         0.2          99.9
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                         HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                   Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                Department of Environment, Planning Service



TABLE 16: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - FREQUENCY OF VISIT TO MAIN STORE / CENTRE (%)


                                                                 3 times a                                                  Once                  Don't
                                                                                 Twice a    Once a    Once a     Once a
Store                                                             week or                                                 every two Less often   know /    Total
                                                                                  week       week    fortnight   month
                                                                 more often                                                months                Varies
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                   10.9          21.5       59.6      5.3        2.7        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                              11.0          14.1       71.6      3.2        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                                   8.5          15.8       67.9      2.1        5.7        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                    15.7          10.6       70.0      3.7        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                    13.3          33.3       53.3      0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                         12.5          15.2       70.3      2.1        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Lisburn- Greens                                                     18.1          36.3       31.4      8.1        6.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                               6.8          24.8       68.4      0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Lurgan - Tesco                                                       4.1          24.3       69.5      0.5        0.0        1.2       0.0        0.5      100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                              26.0          20.0       52.1      1.8        0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                                 8.7          18.2       68.5      1.4        2.9        0.0       0.0        0.3      100.0
Average                                                             14.5          20.1       56.2      2.9        1.0        0.1       0.0        5.1      100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.


TABLE 17: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT TO MAIN CENTRE / STORE (%)

                                                                                  Car -
Store                                                            Car - Driver                Bus     Walked      Cycle      Taxi      Other      Total
                                                                                passenger
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                   82.5           11.3      0.0       6.2        0.0        0.0       0.0       100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                              83.1           7.8       5.1       1.4        0.0        2.6       0.0       100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                                  64.8           25.2      3.0       1.1        1.1        4.9       0.0       100.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                    63.1           31.6      2.6       2.6        0.0        0.0       0.0       100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                    60.0           13.3      6.7       13.3       0.0        0.0       6.7       100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                         75.9           13.2      3.0       0.7        0.0        0.9       6.3       100.0
Lisburn- Greens                                                     57.7           12.1      12.1      6.0        0.0        6.0       6.0       100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                              74.9           20.5      0.0       0.0        0.0        4.7       0.0       100.0
Lurgan - Tesco                                                      52.2           22.5      2.1       19.8       0.0        3.3       0.0       100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                              61.2            3.7      14.8      14.8       0.0        5.5       0.0       100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                                75.0           17.1      2.5       4.5        0.0        0.9       0.0       100.0
Average                                                             68.8           17.1      3.5       7.3        0.0        1.6       1.6       100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                            HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 18: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE / STORE (%)

                                                                 5 mins    6-10   11-15   16-20      21-25   26-30   Over 30
                                                                                                                                 Total
Store                                                            or less   mins   mins    mins       mins    mins     mins
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                 37.8     25.7    18.3    16.5       0.5     0.5      0.6       100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                            28.7     44.3    20.0    6.9        0.0     0.0      0.0       100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                                28.8     36.3    21.4    10.2       0.0     2.6      0.7       100.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                  12.1     50.0    13.4    8.3        9.4     1.1      5.8       100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                  23.1     46.2    30.8    0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0       100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                       29.0     32.9    19.7    9.1        4.8     2.2      2.3       100.0
Lisburn- Greens                                                    6.6     46.1    26.3     6.6        6.6    7.8      0.0       100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                            15.4     21.7    41.1    1.2        12.2    0.0      8.4       100.0
Lurgan - Tesco                                                    25.8     52.3     9.9    9.1         0.0    2.9      0.0       100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                            22.3     32.0    17.4    21.0       0.0     7.4      0.0       100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                              22.9     43.8    23.1    6.4        0.0     1.9      1.9       100.0
Average                                                           28.0     36.1    20.4    9.4        2.2     2.3      1.6       100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                  HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Craigavon Borough- Retail Sector Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Department of Environment, Planning Service





TABLE 19: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - REASON FOR VISITING MAIN CENTRE/STORE (%)


                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Habit /
                                                                  Close to                                        Good / cheap Wide choice of               Good prices / Good quality                    Friends /                           Don't know /
                                                                              Close to   Ease of   Free / cheap                                 Close to                               More convenient                Familiar /
Store                                                              home /                                            public       goods /                     value for     goods /                        Family                   Other     no particular    Total
                                                                               work      parking     parking                                  other shops                              / easier to get to             Always go
                                                                 convenient                                        transport     products                      money       products                       take me                                reason
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        there
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                   47.9        1.4        6.6         2.2            0.0            9.3          0.0           18.9            7.0           0.0            0.0         0.0          6.7          0.0          100
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                              66.2        0.0        0.9         0.0            0.0           12.1          2.6            5.4            7.0           0.0            0.0         0.9          4.8          0.0          107
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                                  51.2        0.0        0.7         3.0            0.0           16.1          2.5           13.2            3.2           0.7            0.0         0.0          6.6          3.0          100
Dungannon- Tesco                                                    65.5        0.0        3.7         0.0            0.0           27.8          0.0            2.0            1.0           0.0            0.0         0.0          0.0          0.0          100
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                    80.0        0.0        0.0         13.3           0.0            0.0          0.0            0.0            0.0           0.0            0.0         0.0          6.7          0.0          100
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                         57.8        0.2        2.0         4.0            0.0            7.2          0.0           13.7            2.9           0.0            0.0         0.4         11.8          0.0          100
Lisburn- Greens                                                     24.2        2.1        0.0         6.0            0.0            6.0          0.0           18.1           30.2           0.0            0.0         0.0         13.2          0.0          100
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                              44.1        2.1        0.0         11.1           0.0           38.2          0.0            0.0            2.2           0.0            0.0         0.0          0.0          2.1          100
Lurgan - Tesco                                                      65.0        0.0        0.5         0.0            0.0           18.2          0.0            7.3            1.2           0.0            0.0         0.5          7.3          0.0          100
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                              68.3        0.0        0.0         0.0            0.0           11.7          0.0            7.4            6.2           0.0            0.0         2.7          3.7          0.0          100
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                                78.4        0.0        0.0         1.0            0.0           10.5          0.0            3.9            3.1           0.0            0.0         1.7          1.4          0.0          100
Average                                                             60.2        1.6        1.6         2.0            0.1           11.4          0.2            9.0            4.2           0.1            0.1         0.5          7.5          1.3          100
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                                                                   HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                               Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                            Department of Environment, Planning Service



TABLE 20: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - INCIDENCE OF LINKED TRIPS BY CENTRE/STORE (%)

                                                                                 Don't know / no
Store                                                            Yes    No                         Total
                                                                                      reply
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                12.2   86.7            1.1        100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                           48.2   51.8            0.0        100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                               37.8   62.2            0.0        100.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                 17.8   82.2            0.0        100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                  6.7   80.0           13.3        100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                       6.8   85.2            8.1        100.1
Lisburn- Greens                                                   1.2   92.8            6.0        100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                            2.1   97.9            0.0        100.0
Lurgan - Tesco                                                   22.9   77.1            0.0        100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                           41.4   58.6            0.0        100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                             35.2   64.8            0.0        100.0
Average                                                          22.8   75.0            2.2        100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.




                                                                               HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                  Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                               Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 21: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT USED FOR LINKED TRIPS (%)


Store                                                            Car    Walk    Bus     Taxi       Other   Total
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                21.5   78.5     0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                            9.7   90.3     0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                               18.9   81.1     0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                 40.4   59.6     0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                  0.0   100.0    0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                      56.8   43.2     0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Lisburn- Greens                                                  0.0    100.0    0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                            0.0   100.0    0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Lurgan - Tesco                                                   14.8   85.2     0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                           15.6   84.4     0.0     0.0        0.0    100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                              8.1   89.7     0.0     0.0        2.2    100.0
Average                                                          19.9   78.3     0.2     1.3        0.3    100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Department of Environment, Planning Service





TABLE 22: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - SHOPS/SERVICES NORMALLY VISITED ON A LINKED TRIP (%)


                                                                                     Professional
                                                                 Financial outlets                                  Café /                                                                Department /
                                                                                       services                                  Specialist                           Fashion   Charity                     Other         Florist /                          HMV / Record                Don't know /
Store                                                            (Banks Building                     Post office restaurant /                 Chemist    Newsagents                         variety                                   Boots     Woolworths                    Other
                                                                                      (solicitors,                              food shops                             shops    shops                    Supermarket   Flower Shop                              store                     no reply
                                                                      Soc.)                                          pub                                                                     store
                                                                                     accountants)
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd                                       0.0               0.0          12.6          17.5          40.0        26.8         15.1       12.7      2.5         15.4           7.6            0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0          26.4          5.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre                                16.1                5.8          17.7          41.8          18.4        39.8         27.7       45.2      4.0         30.2           2.0            0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0          13.2          4.7
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre                                    17.1                1.9           26.5         40.5          14.1        26.8         17.9       33.9     11.8         28.2            1.9           0.0         0.0          0.0           1.9          33.2           0.0
Dungannon- Tesco                                                       23.1               0.0           20.7          0.0          20.7        41.4          0.0        62.0      0.0          0.0          14.9           0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           5.8           0.0
Dunmarry - Tesco                                                      100.0               0.0          100.0          0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0       100.0    100.0          0.0           0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd                                             0.0               0.0           12.5         45.3          12.5        15.5         15.5        15.5     12.5         12.5           0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0          42.3          12.5
Lisburn- Greens                                                         0.0               0.0            0.0          0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0         0.0      0.0        100.0           0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre                                  0.0               0.0            0.0          0.0         100.0         0.0          0.0         0.0      0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0
Lurgan - Tesco                                                         38.3               2.1           26.8          1.6          23.3        29.5         14.6        30.4      8.3         13.6          10.7           2.1         0.0          0.0           0.0          15.7          12.3
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre                                66.6                8.8           46.6         37.8          33.3        66.5         37.8       49.0       8.8        33.4            0.0           0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre                                  45.2               11.0          42.7          35.2          34.4        52.8         24.0       57.2     19.4         29.7           0.0            0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0          11.8          2.0
Average                                                                31.1               2.9           34.3         24.9           21         40.5         20.4        32.2     13.1         18.5           2.3           0.1         0.1          0.1           0.1          12.2           3.3
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.




                                                                                                                                                        HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





           APPENDIX 4C

       Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Job No: GW/05/254
                                                                              AREA 


                               STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 

                                 BEACON RESEARCH 

        Suite 3, The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang. Lancs. PR3 1YB 

                         Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336 


             DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PLANNING SERVICE 

           HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (MAY 2005)


Name:

Address:

                                                                     Postcode:              ‘

C1      Age:     16-24               1        Supervisor/Manager/Self Employed
                 25-34               2        Size of company
                 35-44               3        No. of employees
                 45-54               4
                 55-64               5        If Retired
                 65 +                6        Company pension–ask previous occupation
                                              State pension only – code 5 below
C2      Sex:     Male                1
                 Female              2        If Unemployed
                                              Less than 2 months – ask about previous
C3      Do you have the use of a car for      occupation
        shopping?                             Over 2 months – code 6 below

        Yes                          1                Now Assess Social Grade
        No                           2                AB                   1
                                                      C1                   2
C4      What is the occupation of the chief           C2                   3
        wage earner in your household?                D                    4
                                                      E1 (Retired)         5
        Full/Part time employed      1                E2 (Unemployed)      6
        Retired                      2                Refused              7
        Unemployed                   3
                                                     C5          Day / Time of interview
        Occupation
                                                     Weekday     1      Morning         1
        Rank/Status                                  Weekend     2      Afternoon       2
                                                                        Evening         3
        No. of Employees

        Qualifications


        Interviewer Signature: ____________________________________________

        Date: _________________________________________________________
Job No: GW/05/254



Good morning / afternoon, my name is ................................................................   


We are doing some research on behalf of The Department of the Environment, Planning 

Service to improve shopping facilities in this area and I’d like to ask you a few questions.

Are you / may I speak to the person responsible for the majority of your household shopping? 




YES                          1
NO                           2 - CLOSE INTERVIEW

As we need to speak to people across a number of areas, could you please tell me your full
postcode?

WRITE IN POST CODE HERE ______________________

Refer to quota and check that respondent is eligible for interview - if not, thank and
close.
Job No: GW/05/254



Q1a 	 Can I ask you first of all, excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet at
      which Town, Centre or Retail Park do you do most of your shopping for non-food
      goods such as Clothing & Footwear, books, gifts and jewellery?

Q1b 	 And how often do you visit..................... Centre or Retail Park for this type
      of non-food shopping?

Q1c 	 And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or
      proportion of your total expenditure on non-food goods such as clothing &
      footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in
      .......................Town, Centre or Retail Park?

Q2a 	 Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what is your second most
      important Town, Centre or Retail Park for non-food shopping such as Clothing &
      Footwear, Books, gifts and Jewellery? (SINGLE CODE)

Q2b 	 And how often do you visit..................... Centre or Retail Park for this type
      of non-food shopping?

Q2c 	 And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
      proportion of your total expenditure on non-food goods such as clothing &
      footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in
      ....................... Centre or Retail Park?

RECORD ANSWERS BELOW & OPPOSITE - CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT Q1c/2c


A                             CENTRE                              Q1            Q2

    Craigavon – Town centre / Rushmere Shopping centre             1             1
    Craigavon – Marlborough Retail Park / B&Q                     2             2
    Craigavon – Highfield Grove / Halfords                        3             3
    Lurgan – Town centre                                           4            4
    Portadown – Town centre                                       5             5
    Portadown – Magowen West Retail Park                           6            6
    Antrim – Town Centre                                          7             7
    Antrim – Retail Park                                           8            8
    Ards                                                          9             9
    Armagh                                                        10            10
    Ballynahingh                                                  11            11
    Banbridge                                                     12            12
    Bangor – Town Centre                                          13            13
    Bangor – Bloomfield Centre                                    14            14
    Bangor – Clandeboye Retail Park                               15            15
    Bangor – Springhill Centre                                    16            16
    Belfast- City Centre                                          17            17
    Belfast – Boucher Retail Park                                 18            18
    Belfast – Connswater Shopping Centre                          19            19
    Belfast – Dairy Farm Centre                                   20            20
    Belfast – Galwally Retail Park / Homebase                     21            21
Job No: GW/05/254



    Belfast – Hillview Retail Park                   22       22
    Belfast – Kennedy Centre                         23       23
    Belfast – Lesley Retail Park                     24       24
    Belfast – Park Centre                            25       25
    Belfast – Westwood Centre                        26       26
    Belfast – Yorkgate                               27       27
    Belfast – Forestside Shopping Centre             28       28
    Carryduff                                        29       29
    Carrickfergus                                    30       30
    Castlereagh – Dundonald Village                  31       31
    Cookstown – Town centre                          32       32
    Cookstown – Station Square Retail Park           33       33
    Dungannon                                        34       34
    Downpatrick                                      35       35
    Dromore                                          36       36
    Hillsborough                                     37       37
    Holywood                                         38       38
    Junction One Outlet Centre                       39       39
    Lisburn – Town Centre                            40       40
    Lisburn – Hillsborough Rd Retail Park            41       41
    Lisburn – Sprucefield Retail Park                42       42
    Lisburn – Langhambank Retail Park                43       43
    Newcastle                                        44       44
    Newry – Town centre                              45       45
    Newry – Damolly Retail Park                      46       46
    Newtownabbey – Abbey Centre                      47       47
    Newtownabbey – Abbey Retail Park / B&Q           48       48
    Newtownabbey – Abbey Trading Estate              49       49
    Newtownabbey – Glengormley Village               50       50
    Newtownabbey – Northcott Centre                  51       51
    Newtownards                                      52       52
    Dublin                                           53       53
    Other (Write In)
    No Particular Centre / Varies                    54       54
    None / Don’t shop / Disabled / Mail order only   55       55
    No second centre                                 56       56
    DK / Cant remember                               57       57
B                       FREQUENCY OF VISIT
    More than once a week                            1        1
    Once a week                                      2        2
    2-3 times a month                                3        3
    Once a month                                     4        4
    Once every 2-3 months                            5        5
    Once every 4-6 months                            6        6
    Less often                                       7        7
    DK / Can’t remember / Varies                     8        8
C   % In Location (Write In)                              %        %
Job No: GW/05/254



Q3a     You said that ............ is the Centre/Retail Park where you do most of your
        clothing & footwear shopping? What is your main reason for choosing that Centre?

      Close to home/convenient                             1   Good/Cheap Public Transport                    7
      Close to work                                        2   Ease of parking                                8
      Good choice of shops/range of goods stores           3   Free/cheap parking                             9
      Good range of major stores                           4   Good quality goods/products                   10
      Pedesrtrianised streets/attractive environment       5   Part of joint trip to other facility/centre   11
      Good prices/Good value for money                     6   Other (Write In)


Q3b     How do you normally travel to / from this Centre / Retail Park? (If more than one
        mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)

        Car (Driver)                  1                Walk                             6
        Car (Passenger)               2                Cycle                            7
        Bus                           3                Motor Cycle                      8
        Train                         4                Taxi                             9
        Park & Ride                   5                Other                             10

Q3c     Where does your journey usually start from?

        Home                                           1
        Work                                           2
        Other (write in)

ASK ALL SAYING HOME AT Q3c - OTHERS GO TO Q4

Q3d     On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Centre / Retail Park from
        home?

        5 minutes or less             1                21 – 25 minutes                  5
        6 – 10 minutes                2                26 – 30 minutes                  6
        11 – 15 minutes               3                Over 30 minutes                  7
        16 – 20 minutes               4

Q4     At which Town, Centre or Retail Park do you normally undertake most of your
        Christmas or special occasion shopping? (Write in)
Job No: GW/05/254



Q5a 	 Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet at which Centre or Retail
      Park do you do most of your shopping for bulky non-food goods such as DIY, large
      electrical goods, furniture and carpets (SINGLE CODE)

Q5b 	 And how often do you visit ………. Centre / Retail Park for your main bulky non-
      food goods shopping?

Q5c 	 And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
      proportion of your total expenditure on bulky non-food goods shopping would you
      say that you do in ....................... Centre / Retail Park?



Q6a 	 Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet which is your second most
      important Centre / Retail Park for bulky non-food goods shopping? (SINGLE
      CODE)

Q6b 	 And how often do you visit ………. Centre / Retail Park for your main bulky non-
      food goods shopping?

Q6c 	 And Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
      proportion of your total expenditure on bulky non-food goods shopping would you
      say that you do in ....................... Centre / Retail Park?

RECORD ANSWERS BELOW & OPPOSITE - CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT
Q5c/6c

A                             CENTRE                           Q1            Q2

    Craigavon – Town centre / Rushmere Shopping centre           1            1
    Craigavon – Marlborough Retail Park / B&Q                   2            2
    Craigavon – Highfield Grove / Halfords                      3            3
    Lurgan – Town centre                                         4           4
    Portadown – Town centre                                     5            5
    Portadown – Magowen West Retail Park                         6           6
    Antrim – Town Centre                                        7            7
    Antrim – Retail Park                                         8           8
    Ards                                                        9            9
    Armagh                                                      10           10
    Ballynahingh                                                11           11
    Banbridge                                                   12           12
    Bangor – Town Centre                                        13           13
    Bangor – Bloomfield Centre                                  14           14
    Bangor – Clandeboye Retail Park                             15           15
    Bangor – Springhill Centre                                  16           16
    Belfast- City Centre                                        17           17
    Belfast – Boucher Retail Park                               18           18
    Belfast – Connswater Shopping Centre                        19           19
    Belfast – Dairy Farm Centre                                 20           20
    Belfast – Galwally Retail Park / Homebase                   21           21
Job No: GW/05/254



    Belfast – Hillview Retail Park                   22       22
    Belfast – Kennedy Centre                         23       23
    Belfast – Lesley Retail Park                     24       24
    Belfast – Park Centre                            25       25
    Belfast – Westwood Centre                        26       26
    Belfast – Yorkgate                               27       27
    Belfast – Forestside Shopping Centre             28       28
    Carryduff                                        29       29
    Carrickfergus                                    30       30
    Castlereagh – Dundonald Village                  31       31
    Cookstown – Town centre                          32       32
    Cookstown – Station Square Retail Park           33       33
    Dungannon                                        34       34
    Downpatrick                                      35       35
    Dromore                                          36       36
    Hillsborough                                     37       37
    Holywood                                         38       38
    Junction One Outlet Centre                       39       39
    Lisburn – Town Centre                            40       40
    Lisburn – Hillsborough Rd Retail Park            41       41
    Lisburn – Sprucefield Retail Park                42       42
    Lisburn – Langhambank Retail Park                43       43
    Newcastle                                        44       44
    Newry – Town centre                              45       45
    Newry – Damolly Retail Park                      46       46
    Newtownabbey – Abbey Centre                      47       47
    Newtownabbey – Abbey Retail Park / B&Q           48       48
    Newtownabbey – Abbey Trading Estate              49       49
    Newtownabbey – Glengormley Village               50       50
    Newtownabbey – Northcott Centre                  51       51
    Newtownards                                      52       52
    Dublin                                           53       53
    Other (Write In)

    No Particular Centre / Varies                    54       54
    None / Don’t shop / Disabled / Mail order only   55       55
    No second centre                                 56       56
    DK / Cant remember                               57       57
B                       FREQUENCY OF VISIT
    More than once a week                            1        1
    Once a week                                      2        2
    2-3 times a month                                3        3
    Once a month                                     4        4
    Once every 2-3 months                            5        5
    Once every 4-6 months                            6        6
    Less often                                       7        7
    DK / Can’t remember / Varies                     8        8
C   % In Location (Write In)                              %        %
Job No: GW/05/254



Q7a 	 You said that ............ is the Centre/Retail Park where you do most of your
      bulky non-food goods shopping? What is your main reason for choosing that
      Centre?

    Close to home/convenient                            1   Good/Cheap Public Transport                     7

    Close to work                                       2   Ease of parking                                 8

    Good choice of shops/range of goods stores          3   Free / cheap parking                            9

    Good range of major stores                          4   Good quality goods/products                     10 

    Pedesrtrianised streets / attractive environment    5   Part of joint trip to other facility / centre   11 

    Good prices/Good value for money                    6   Other (Write In) 



Q7b 	 How do you normally travel to / from this Centre / Retail Park? (If more than one
      mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)

      Car (Driver)                  1              Walk                             6

      Car (Passenger)               2              Cycle                            7

      Bus                           3              Motor Cycle                      8         

      Train                         4              Taxi                             9

      Park & Ride                   5              Other                            10 


Q7c 	 Where does your journey usually start from?

      Home                                         1

      Work                                         2         

      Other (write in) 


ASK ALL SAYING HOME AT Q7c - OTHERS GO TO Q8

Q7d 	 On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Centre / Retail Park from
      home?

      5 minutes or less             1              21 – 25 minutes                   5

      6 – 10 minutes                2              26 – 30 minutes                   6

      11 – 15 minutes               3              Over 30 minutes                   7

      16 – 20 minutes               4

Job No: GW/05/254



Q8a 	 At which store and centre do you usually do most or all of your main food and
      grocery shopping? (Store and Centre needed - Single code)

Q8b 	 And when during the week, would you normally shop at your main food store?

Q9a 	 And at which Store and Centre do you usually do your remaining top-up food and
      grocery shopping? (Store and Centre needed)

RECORD ANSWER BELOW

                                                            Q8a                        Q9a
                                                     Main Store / Centre       Second Store / Centre
 A     CODE FROM LIST

       OTHER (WRITE IN)


  B    WHEN SHOP
       Weekdays (Mon – Fri) Daytime                           1
       Weekdays (Mon – Fri) Evening                          2
       Saturday                                              3
       Sunday                                                4
       Varies / No particular time                           5



Q10a On average, how much do you and your household spend on food and groceries
     each week in your main store?

Q10b And how much on average do you spend on food and groceries each week in your
     second most important food store?

      RECORD BELOW                                                         £             P
      (a) Main’ store weekly total expenditure
      (b) ‘ Second ’ store weekly food expenditure
      (c) Total weekly food expenditure
NOTE: (c) is calculated as (a + b)

Q11a You said that................ is your main store for food/grocery shopping. How
     often do you visit that store for food and grocery shopping?

       Three times a week or more often              1
       Twice a week                                  2
       Once a week                                   3
       Once a fortnight                              4
       Once a month                                  5
       Once every two months                         6
       Less often                                    7
Job No: GW/05/254



Q11b What is the main reason why you and your household choose to shop at the store
     where you do your main food / grocery shopping? (SINGLE CODE)

     Close to home / convenient       1           Wide choice of goods / products 6 

     Close to work                    2            Close to other shops             7

     Ease of parking                  3            Good prices/good value for money 8 

     Free / cheap parking        4          Good quality goods / products     9

     Good / cheap public transport    5

     Other (WRITE IN) ______________________________________________10 

Q11c How do you normally travel to / from this store? (If more than one mode of
     transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)

      Car (Driver)              1            Walk                      6

      Car (Passenger)           2            Cycle                     7

      Bus                       3            Motor Cycle               8       

      Train                     4            Taxi                      9

      Park & Ride               5            Other                     10 


Q11d Where does your journey usually start from?

      Home                                   1

      Work                                   2       

      Other (write in) 


ASK ALL SAYING HOME AT Q11d - OTHERS GO TO Q12a

Q11e On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Store from home?

      5 minutes or less         1             21 – 25 minutes           5

      6 – 10 minutes            2             26 – 30 minutes           6

      11 – 15 minutes           3             Over 30 minutes           7

      16 – 20 minutes           4


Q12a When you do your main food and grocery shopping at………………………. do you or your
     household usually visit any other shops/service outlets in the same area as part of
     that trip?

      Yes                   1   

      No                    2       


IF YES ASK Q12b TO Q12d - OTHERS GO TO Q13

Q12b Which town/centre is this?

      (Write In)
Job No: GW/05/254



Q12c And do you drive to the other shops/service outlets, or walk or use another form
     of transport?

      Drive                               1     Taxi                          4
      Walk                                2     Other Form of Transport       5
      Bus                                 3

Q12d And what other shops/services do you normally visit (MULTI-CODE)

      Financial outlets (eg Banks, Building Societies)                        1
      Professional Services (eg Solicitors, Accountants)                      2
      Post Office                                                             3
      Cafe/Restaurant/Pub/Take-Away                                           4
      Specialist food shops (eg Baker, Greengrocer, Butcher)                  5
      Chemist                                                                 6
      Newsagents/Confectioners/Tobacconists                                   7
      Fashion Shops (eg for clothing, footwear etc)                           8
      Charity Shops                                                           9
      Department/Variety Store                                               10
      Other type of shop (WRITE IN)




                CLOSE INTERVIEW - COMPLETE CLASSIFICATION 

CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 5

           Shopper Survey
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





           APPENDIX 5A

      Survey Methodology and Sample
Colliers CRE                               Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                    __________




                                      The Shoppers Survey


•	 In order to ensure that the health checks of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown are as
   comprehensive and robust as possible, street surveys of shoppers in these town centres (one of the
   indicators of PPS 5 is ‘customer views’) have been undertaken. Interviews were conducted face to
   face, using a structured questionnaire. Interviewing locations were selected in order to try and to
   ensure that shoppers would have completed their shopping prior to their interview. This approach
   yields data on actual shopper expenditure etc, rather than just buying intentions. The table below
   details the location, date and number of interviews undertaken. Overall across the three town
   centres we undertook 750 shopper interviews.



                                     Number of
             Centre                                            Survey Dates
                                     Interviews
       Craigavon                         250               9/11/12/13/14th May
       Lurgan                           250                9/11/12/13/14th May
       Portadown                         250               9/11/12/13/14th May
       Total                             750                        -


Note


Interviews were undertaken between 10am-4pm each day on a Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
and Saturday.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 5B

             Key Results
November 2005                                                               Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                         Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE i: AGE OF RESPONDENTS (%)


Years                            Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
16 - 24                            25         30         25        27
25-34                              19         15         28        21
35-44                              15         17         18        17
45-54                              16         11         14        13
55-64                              13         10         13        12
65+                                11         16          2        10
Total                              100        100        100       100



TABLE ii: GENDER OF RESPONDENTS (%)


Gender                           Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Female                             38         43         27        36
Male                               62         56         73        64
Total                              100        99         100       100



TABLE iii: SOCIAL GRADE OF RESPONDENTS (%)


Social Grade                     Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
A                                   2          3          3         3
B                                  11          7          8         8
C1                                 25         21         28        25
C2                                 17         18         47        27
D                                  18         13          7        13
E                                  28         36          7        24
Total                              100        100        100       100



TABLE 1: AVERAGE COMPOSITION OF RESPONDENTS' PARTY (number of people)


Composition                      Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Female adults                      1.29       1.13      1.31       1.24
Male adults                        0.49       0.64      0.47       0.53
Children under 16 years            0.25       0.19      0.15       0.20
Total                              2.03       1.96      1.93       1.97



TABLE 2: MAIN REASON FOR VISITING TOWN (%)


Reason                           Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Shopping for goods                  74        61         73         70
Just browsing/window shopping       15        15         10         13
Work here                            4         7          4          5
Meet friends or relatives           3         1          5          3
Pay bills/visit services            1         3          3          2
Visit doctor/optician/chemist/
                                    1          1         2          1
dentist
School/college                      -         10          2         4
Other                               3          2          1         2
Total                              100        100        100       100




                                                         SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                                       Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 3a: CRAIGAVON - CONSUMERS PURCHASING PATTERNS (%)


                                        Before Visiting Craigavon                             After Visiting Craigavon

                                                    A                                  B                                  C
Goods Categories
                                       Goods Types Intended to Buy         Goods Types Actually Bought        Conversion Rate (=B/A x100)

                                                   (%)                                 (%)                               (%)
Leisure Goods                                      8                                   8                                 100
Clothing                                           54                                  49                                91
Catering services                                  3                                   3                                 100
Household textiles/ soft furnishings                3                                  3                                 100
Footwear                                           13                                  11                                85
Chemist goods                                      7                                   6                                 86
Food to take home                                  48                                  46                                96
DIY/hardware/garden products                       2                                   3                                 150
Jewellery                                          1                                   1                                 100
Electrical goods/ Hi-fi                            1                                   1                                 100
None of these/Purchased
                                                    2                                  5                                 250
nothing today

TABLE 3b: LURGAN - CONSUMERS PURCHASING PATTERNS (%)


                                          Before Visiting Lurgan                               After Visiting Lurgan

                                                    A                                  B                                  C
Goods Categories
                                       Goods Types Intended to Buy         Goods Types Actually Bought        Conversion Rate (=B/A x100)

                                                   (%)                                 (%)                               (%)
Chemist goods                                      3                                   3                                 100
Catering services                                  6                                   8                                 133
Food to take home                                  47                                  45                                96
Financial services/pay bills                       1                                   1                                 100
DIY/hardware/garden products                       2                                   1                                 50
Household textiles/ soft furnishings                3                                  3                                 100
Clothing                                           40                                  39                                98
Leisure Goods                                      3                                   3                                 100
Electrical goods/ Hi-fi                            1                                   1                                 100
Footwear                                           5                                   5                                 100
Carpets/furniture                                  1                                   1                                 100
None of these/Purchased nothing
                                                   13                                  14                                108
today

TABLE 3c: PORTADOWN - CONSUMERS PURCHASING PATTERNS (%)


                                        Before Visiting Portadown                             After Visiting Portadown

                                                    A                                  B                                  C
Goods Categories
                                       Goods Types Intended to Buy         Goods Types Actually Bought        Conversion Rate (=B/A x100)

                                                   (%)                                 (%)                               (%)
Carpets/furniture                                   2                                  1                                  50
Household textiles/ soft furnishings                4                                  3                                  75
Footwear                                           17                                  13                                76
Jewellery                                          2                                   3                                 150
Leisure Goods                                      25                                  28                                112
Electrical goods/ Hi-fi                            3                                   4                                 133
DIY/hardware/garden products                       2                                   3                                 150
Household services                                 3                                   3                                 100
Leisure services                                   1                                   1                                 100
Financial services/pay bills                       2                                   2                                 100
Clothing                                           33                                  25                                76
Food to take home                                  67                                  67                                100
Chemist goods                                      14                                  19                                136
Catering services                                  11                                  17                                155
None of these/Purchased nothing
                                                    1                                  1                                 100
today




                                                                   SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                                            Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                                      Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 4a: THE MAIN CENTRE RESPONDENTS USE FOR NON FOOD SHOPPING (%)


Centre                             Craigavon      Lurgan     Portadown       Average
Craigavon- Rushmere Shopping
                                       45           61            6             37
Centre
Craigavon- Rushmere Retail Park         2           4            12             6
Lurgan-Town Centre                     10           9             6             8
Portadown- Town Centre                 10           5            59            25
Armagh                                  4           0             4             3
Banbridge                               3           0             2             2
Belfast- City Centre                    7           4             2             4
Belfast- Park Centre                    0           1             0             1
Belfast- Connswater                     0           1             -             0
Belfast- Dairy Farm Centre              1           0             -             1
Belfast- Other                          0           1             -             0
Lisburn                                 6           8             4             6
Newry                                   2           1             1             2
None in particular/ Varies              -           -             2             1
Other                                   8           2             1             4
Total                                  100         100           100           100


TABLE 4b: AVERAGE % OF SPEND ON NON-FOOD SHOPPING IN THIS TOWN CENTRE

                                   Craigavon      Lurgan     Portadown       Average
% spend on non-food                   51.47       40.13         61.52         50.93



TABLE 4c: REASONS FOR CHOOSING MAIN CENTRE FOR NON FOOD SHOPPING (%)


Reason                             Craigavon      Lurgan     Portadown       Average
Close to home/ convenient/east to
                                        78        66           83             76
get to/ live here
Good choice/ variety of stores/
                                        40        16           67             41
less choice elsewhere
Good quality of shops                   23        38           11             24
Better range of large multiple
                                        17         3           6              8
shops
Cheap prices/ value for money            9         1           3              4
Because of a specific store             34         1           6              14
Close to work                            4         4           34             14
Habit/ always shopped there              4         -           1              2
Easy/ plenty of parking                 10         0           7              6
Cheap/ free parking                      7         1           5              4
Good/ cheap public transport             1         0           1              1
Don't know/ no reply/ no particular
                                         4         -           5              3
reason
Note: respondents were asked to give a maximum of 3 responses and therefore columns sum to more than 100%. Responses relate to a range
of named centres for each interview location



TABLE 5a: AVERAGE PARTY SPEND IN TOWN CENTRE (£s)


Goods Type                         Craigavon      Lurgan     Portadown       Average
Food to take home                     18.14       9.64          17.90         15.22
Non - food items                      29.16       17.55         17.22         21.29
Catering                              2.06        1.16          1.73          1.65
Other Services                        2.26        0.47          0.16          0.96
Total                                 51.17       28.83         37.00         39.00
Note: The total does not always equal the sum of the individual expenditure categories because the number of respondents within each category
is different. Figures relate to all parties whether they spent or not.




                                                                  SHOPPER SURVEY
Colliers CRE                                                                                                                                                            Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                                                                         Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 5b: SPEND PER PARTY ON DAY OF INTERVIEW BY CLASSIFICATION DATA (£)


                                      Belfast                       Ballyclare                           Bangor                    Carrickfergus                          Carryduff                    Holywood                    Lisburn

     Classification
                            Average      Average Spent       Average       Average Spent        Average     Average Spent      Average       Average Spent       Average       Average Spent   Average     Average Spent   Average    Average Spent
                             Spend        by Spenders         Spend         by Spenders          Spend       by Spenders        Spend         by Spenders         Spend         by Spenders     Spend       by Spenders     Spend      by Spenders


           Sex

Male                          44.05          63.69            35.57             38.46            15.79          18.19           171.53           175.38           21.76            24.78       10.43          12.82        35.55         40.29

Female                        50.34          62.87            38.14             41.77            31.05          34.46            37.69           37.69            25.90            27.72       13.85          15.83        40.65         44.58

           Age

16 - 34                       37.94          53.85            37.15             41.56            25.53          27.82            44.19           44.19            23.26            28.67       11.38          15.05        32.86         37.46

35-54                         75.44          85.12            40.61             43.84            30.05          32.70           123.68           123.68           21.25            22.41       14.33          17.05        56.35         61.39

55+                           36.05          46.10            33.12             35.65            29.61          35.33            25.68           26.09            28.00            28.94       12.51          13.22        30.40         32.25

      Social Grade

ABC1                          61.35          76.83            40.05             43.74            32.78          36.31           115.29           115.29           27.74            29.13       11.77          14.31        41.52         46.71

C2                            35.10          54.67            33.20             35.32            29.11          31.95            52.35           53.59            24.03            26.68       18.16          20.82        38.72         43.71

DE                            44.49          53.55            36.59             41.30            21.69          24.75            25.61           25.61            19.14            22.21        9.72          10.27        31.89         33.46

           Day

Mon - Wed                     50.22          62.69            32.18             32.56            29.51          30.39            85.20           85.20            23.98            26.64       12.51          14.79        34.23         41.08

Fri- Sat                      46.94          63.49            43.15             51.21            26.77          32.72            49.78           50.28            24.93            26.83       13.21          15.22        43.26         44.67



Note: Average spend is the average expenditure per party for all interviewees. Average expenditure by spenders is the average spend for only those parties that spent something.




                                                                                                                    SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                             Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                       Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 6: FREQUENCY WITH WHICH TOWN CENTRES ARE VISITED (%)


Frequency                      Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Everyday / almost every day      10         29          8         16
2-3 times a week                 28         27         50         35
Once a week                      30         19         28         26
2-3 times a month                 5          8          6          6
Once a month                      9          7          3          7
Less than once a month           13          7          3          8
Never                             5          2          1          3
Don't know / no reply             -          -          -          -
Total                            100        100        100        100



TABLE 7a: ORIGIN OF TRIP (%)


Origin                         Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Home                             88         79         83         83
Work                              4         11         11          9
School/college                    1          -          2          1
Shopping - elsewhere              3         10          3          5
Home of friend/ relative          1          -          1          0
Hospital/ Doctor                  1          -          1          0
Total                            100        100        100        100



TABLE 7b : (IF 'HOME' AT Q7a) DISTANCE OF JOURNEY FROM HOME (%)


Distance (miles)               Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
0 - 0.9 miles                     8         15          4          9
1 - 1.9 miles                    26         18         21         22
2 - 4.9 miles                    22         23         33         25
5 - 9.9 miles                    14         11         28         17
10 - 14.9 miles                   9          7          5          7
15 miles or over                 20         26          8         19
Don't know/ no reply              1          -          2          1
Total                            100        100        100        100



TABLE 7c : (IF HOME AT Q7a) TIME OF JOURNEY FROM HOME TO TOWN (%)


Duration (mins)                Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
0-5                              11         11          6         10
5.1-10                           26         18         18         21
10.1-15                          20         12         50         26
15.1-30                          11          8         17         12
30.1-60                          11          1          6          6
Over 1 hour                       2          2          2          2
Don't know / No reply            18         49          3         24
Total                            100        100        100        100




                                                       SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                                           Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 8a: RESPONDENT'S MODE OF TRANSPORT TO TOWN CENTRE (%)


Transport Mode                      Craigavon   Lurgan    Portadown       Average
Car - driver                          54         37           55            48
Car - passenger                       19         21           23            21
Walked                                 7         19           16            14
Bus                                   16         16            4            12
Taxi                                   2          5            1             3
Train                                  0          1            -             0
Cycle                                  1          1            0             1
Motorcycle                             0          1            -             0
Coach                                  2          1            1             1
Other                                  -          0            -             0
Total                                 100        100          100           100

TABLE 8b : RESPONDENT'S MODE OF TRANSPORT BY LENGTH OF JOURNEY FOR ALL CENTRES (%)


                                                                                                           15
                                     0 - 0.9    1 - 1.9                                                   miles
Transport Mode                                            2 - 4.9 miles 5 - 9.9 miles   10 - 14.9 miles
                                     miles      miles                                                      or
                                                                                                          over
Car                                    35        37           43            53               55           57
Car - passenger                        5         11            9            16               27           22
Bus                                    2         14           31            21               12           17
Train                                  0          0            1             2                7            4
Cycle                                  1          1            1             0                0            0
Walked                                54         31            9             1                0            0
Taxi                                   3          7            6             6                0            1
Total                                 100        100          100           100              100          100

TABLE 9 : DURATION OF STAY IN TOWN (%)

Duration (mins)                     Craigavon   Lurgan    Portadown       Average
Less than 30 mins                      10         17           4             11
30-59 mins                             38         20          19             26
1 hour - 1 hour 29 mins                28         36          25             30
1 hour 30 mins - 1 hour 59 mins        9          5           31             15
2 hours - 2 hours 29 mins              9          12          14             12
2 hours 30 mins - 2 hours 59 mins      0          2            2              2
3 hours or more                        5          7            4             5
Not Shopping Today                     -          -            -             -
Total                                 100        100          100           100




                                                               SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                                     Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                               Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 10a : CRAIGAVON RESPONDENT'S SHOPPING TRIP PATTERNS (%)

                                           Location(s) Where Goods are Normally Purchased
                                      A            B          C            D             E
                                             Craigavon Somewhere                    Balance in
Goods Categories                   Craigavon
                                                and     else not      Don’t Buy     Favour of
                                     Only
                                             Elsewhere Craigavon        (%)         Craigavon
                                      (%)
                                                (%)       (%)                        (A-C) (%)
Food to take home                     51          14         26           8             25
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products      45          14         29           13            16
CD’s / Tapes / Records                47          11         32           10            15
Ladies and Men’s Clothing             43          25         30           2             13
Jewellery / Gifts                     46          16         34           4             12
Health Beauty and Chemist's
                                      46          14         35           0             11
Goods
Children’s Clothing                   32          13         24           31             8
Large Electrical Goods                36          16         35           13             1
Shoes                                 37          24         37           2              0
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s
                                      31          16         36           17            -5
and Fabrics
Furniture & Carpets                   22          11         49           18            -27


TABLE 10b : LURGAN RESPONDENT'S SHOPPING TRIP PATTERNS (%)

                                           Location(s) Where Goods are Normally Purchased
                                      A            B          C            D             E
                                               Lurgan   Somewhere                   Balance in
Goods Categories                    Lurgan
                                                 and     else not     Don’t Buy     Favour of
                                     Only
                                              Elsewhere   Lurgan        (%)           Lurgan
                                     (%)
                                                 (%)       (%)                       (A-C) (%)
Food to take home                     29          40         29           2              0
Children’s Clothing                   10          48         28           13            -18
Ladies and Men’s Clothing             12          57         30           0             -18
Health Beauty and Chemist's           11          58         30           1             -19
CD’s / Tapes / Records                11          58         30           2             -19
Jewellery / Gifts                     11          57         30           2             -19
Shoes                                 11          58         31           1             -20
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products      11          52         32           5             -21
Large Electrical Goods                11          50         34           5             -23
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s
                                      10          50         33           6             -23
and Fabrics
Furniture & Carpets                   11          47         36           6             -25


TABLE 10c : PORTADOWN RESPONDENT'S SHOPPING TRIP PATTERNS (%)

                                           Location(s) Where Goods are Normally Purchased
                                      A            B          C            D             E
                                             Portadown Somewhere                    Balance in
Goods Categories                   Portadown
                                                and     else not      Don’t Buy     Favour of
                                      Only
                                             Elsewhere Portadown        (%)         Portadown
                                      (%)
                                                (%)       (%)                        (A-C) (%)
Food to take home                     32          58          7           2             25
Shoes                                 18          75          6           0             12
CD’s / Tapes / Records                14          75          7           4              7
Ladies and Men’s Clothing             14          76          9           1              5
Children’s Clothing                   8           67          5           20             3
Jewellery / Gifts                     12          71         10           7              2
Health Beauty and Chemist's
                                      17          74         21           1             -4
Goods
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s
                                      8           54         19           19            -11
and Fabrics
Large Electrical Goods                6           34         36           24            -30
Furniture & Carpets                   7           31         37           25            -30
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products      8           51         49           21            -41




                                                              SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                                   Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                             Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 11 : RESPONDENT'S DESCRIPTION OF MIX OF TOWN CENTRE RETAIL OFFER (%)


Description                          Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Too many small shops / not
                                        1         38         12         17
enough large stores
About right                             97        56         82         78
Too many large shops / not
                                        3          6         6          5
enough small shops
Don't know / no reply                   -          -          1         0
Total                                  100        100        100       100



TABLE 12 : RESPONDENT'S DESCRIPTION OF QUALITY OF TOWN CENTRE RETAIL OFFER (%)


Description                          Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Too posh/ up market                      4         1           3         3
Fine as it is                            94        88         74        86
Too cheap / down market                  1         11         23        12
Don't know / no reply                     -         -          0         0
Total                                   100       100        100        100



TABLE 13 : RESPONDENT'S DESCRIPTION OF LAYOUT OF TOWN CENTRE (%)

Description                          Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Too compact / can get congested
                                        2         37         20         20
at times
Fine as it is                           97        62         60         73
Too spread out / distances
                                         -         1         19         7
between shops are too long
Don't know / no reply                   1          -          0         1
Total                                  100        100        100       100

TABLE 14 : RESPONDENT'S THREE MOST IMPORTANT SHOPS IN TOWN CENTRE (%)

Retailer                             Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
Debenhams                                31        10          -        15
TK Max                                   13        9           1         8
Dunnes Stores                            13        5          26        15
Tesco                                    23        28         26        26
Woolworths                                -        13         13         8
Boots                                    2         9          12         7
DZ                                        -         -          6         2
B&Q                                      9         1           -         4
Homebase                                 5         1           -         2
New Look/ Mark 1                         3         3           6         4
Next                                     3          -          2         2
Easons                                   4         5           2         4
Topshop/ Topman                          6         4           8         6
River Island                             7         4           1         4
Bargain Books/ Book shop                 4         1           -         2
Dorothy Perkins                          0         6           4         3
NV                                       2         1           2         2
Peacocks/ Primark/ Bon Marche            2         2           2         2
HMV                                      10        6           -         6
Other music store (e.g. Caroline,
                                        4          3         2          3
Music Studio)
Sweeneys / Bairds / Primrose /
                                        0          1         5          2
Other Chemist / Optician
Argos                                   1          0         7          3
Semi Chem                               -          0         5          2
Mothercare/ Adams                       2          -         4          2
H&M                                     4          2          -         2
Superdrug                               1          3         4          2
Shoe Shop (e.g. Dolcis)                 2          2         5          3
Specialist food store (e.g. baker,
                                         -         3         4          2
greengrocer, butcher)
Sainsbury                               12         5         1          7
Iceland                                  -         6         1          2
Other national fashion store
                                        2          1         5          2
(e.g.Kookai)
Other                                   12        40         28         26




                                                             SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                                                       Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 15: TOP 3 RETAILERS RESPONDENTS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN THE TOWN CENTRE (%)

Retailer                                  Craigavon        Lurgan        Portadown        Average
Primark / Peacocks / New Look                   4             11               9            8
Topshop/Topman                                  2             11               0            4
Next                                           11              0               0            4
River Island                                    -              4               3            2
M&S                                            4               5               3            4
Other Named Clothes Store
                                                3              0               2            2
(Oasis, Warehouse etc)
Other                                          12             10               4            9
Don't know/ can't think of any/
                                                8              6              36            16
no reply
None/ quite happy                              49             46              32            42

TABLE 16a : FACILITIES RESPONDENTS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IMPROVED IN THE TOWN CENTRE (%)

Facility                                  Craigavon        Lurgan        Portadown        Average
Wider choice / Variety of shops               13             40              52             35
Better quality stores / goods                 3              36              52             30
More/better places to eat or drink              7              8              49            21
More/better toilets                             3             7               39            16
More/better parking facilities                  1             19              28            16
Less traffic congestion                         1             1               45            16
More shops open in the evenings                 1              1              39            14
More shops open on Sundays                      0              1              39            14
Cleaner Air / Less traffic pollution            -              2              37            13
A bigger/better weekly market                   -              2              35            12
More street entertainment / More
                                                0              1              33            12
things going on
Better cleanliness/make the centre
                                                -              3              29            11
tidier
Better public transport                         -              4              25            10
More pedestrianisation                          -              1              30            10
Make centre more attractive (e.g.
better shop fronts, planting, paving            0              1              24            8
etc.)
Better security/make the centre
                                                0              1              23            8
safer
More/better information displays                -             1               20            7
More/better signage                             -             1               19            7
None of these / Don't know                     75             46              7             42
Note: Columns sum to more than 100% because respondents mentioned a range of facilities


TABLE 16b : SINGLE FACILITY RESPONDENTS WOULD MOST LIKE TO SEE IMPROVED IN THE TOWN CENTRE (%)

Facility                                  Craigavon        Lurgan        Portadown        Average
Wider choice / Variety of shops                12             18              14            15
Better quality stores / goods                   1             18              22            13
More/better places to eat or drink              7              3               7            6
More/better parking facilities                  1             11               4            5
More/better toilets                             3             2                4            3
Less traffic congestion                         0             0                8            3
More street entertainment / More
                                                -              -               6            2
things going on
More shops open in the evenings                 1              -               6            2
A bigger/better weekly market                   -              -               7            2
More shops open on Sundays                      -              -               7            2
Better cleanliness/make the centre
                                                -              1               2            1
tidier
Better security/make the centre
                                                0              -               3            1
safer
Make centre more attractive (e.g.               0              -               1            1
Cleaner Air / Less traffic pollution            -              1               3            1
Better public transport                        -              1               1             0
More pedestrianisation                         -              -               0             0
More/better signage                            -              -               1             0
None of these / don't know                    74             44               5            41
Total                                         100            100             101           100




                                                                              SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005                                                                      Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
                                                                                                Department of Environment, Planning Service




TABLE 16c : THE SINGLE IMPROVEMENT WHICH WOULD MAKE RESPONDENTS VISIT TOWN
CENTRE MORE OFTEN FOR SHOPPING (%)

Improvement                             Craigavon   Lurgan   Portadown   Average
None / quite happy                         78        55         25         53
More stores (general) / fewer
                                           1         10         2          4
banks
Better / more / easier / car parking        -         5         1          2
More entertainment / livelier              -          -         5          2
More places to eat / drink                 4          1         2          2
More choice / variety of stores            -          3         0          1
Better quality of stores/ goods            0          3         -          1
Improve appearance / clean up
                                            -         2          -         1
town centre / more plants
More / better toilets                      0          1         0          1
More pedestrianisation / less traffic
                                            -         2          -         1
/ traffic free centre
More / better public transport              -         1         0          1
More stores for older / larger
                                           1          0         0          1
women
More seating                               1          1         -          1
More Clothes Stores                        0          1         2          1
Other specific store / type of store        -         1          -         0
Longer / later opening hours                -         -         1          0
More stores for young people /
                                            -         1          -         0
students
Debenhams/ Selfridges/
                                           1          0          -         0
Department Store
None / don't know / can't think of
                                           6          3         49         19
any
Other                                      5         7          13         8
Total                                     100        97         100        99




                                                                SHOPPER SURVEY
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





           APPENDIX 5C

       Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Job No: GW/05/254


                             STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 

                               BEACON RESEARCH 

       Suite 3, The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs. PR3 1YB 

                       Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336 



            DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PLANNING SERVICE 

           SHOPPER SURVEY ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (May 2005)


Name:

Address:




Postcode:

C1       Age:    1
                 	 6-24      1       C2        Sex:              Male                         1
                 25-34       2                                   Female                       2
                 35-44       3
                 45-54       4       C3        Status:           Single/Widowed/Divorced: 1
                 55-64       5                                   Married/living with partner: 2
                 65 +        6

C4       Do you have the use of a car/van for shopping? 	        Yes                          1
                                                                 No                           2

C5 	     What is the occupation of the chief wage earner in your household?

                                                            Now Assess Social Grade

Occupation                                                  A                             1
                                                            B                             2
Rank/Status                                                 C1                            3
                                                            C2                            4
No. of Employees                                            D                             5
                                                            E                             6
Qualifications

C6 	     Day of the week             C7     Town
         Monday              1
         Tuesday2                    Craigavon                         1
         Wednesday           3              Lurgan                     2
         Thursday            4              Portadown                  3
         Friday              5
         Saturday            6

Interviewer Signature: 	                                          Date:
Job No: GW/05/254


Good morning/afternoon, I am doing some research on shopping facilities in this Town
Centre today on behalf of The Department of the Environment, Planning Service and I
would like to ask you a few questions.

Can I ask you first of all, have you finished your visit this Town Centre today?

Yes                         1
No                          2

And do you live in Northern Ireland?

Yes                         1
No                          2

IF YES - CONTINUE WITH INTERVIEW

Q1 	 How many people, including yourself, are in your party visiting this Town
     Centre today? (WRITE IN)

         Adult Females 

         Adult Males 

         Children Under 16 

         Total                       


Q2 	   What is your main reason for visiting Town Centre today? (SINGLE CODE)

       Shopping for goods                                                          1
       Work here                                                                   2
       Meet friends or relatives                                                   3
       Just browsing/window shopping                                               4
       School or college                                                           5
       Pay bills/visit services                                                    6
       Visit doctor/dentist/optician                                               7
       Other (WRITE IN)




ASK ALL SHOPPING FOR GOODS AT Q2 - OTHERS GO TO Q4a
   Job No: GW/05/254




   Q3a 	 Before you came to this Town Centre today, which items, if any, on this list
         (SHOW CARD A) did you or anyone in your party intend to shop for?

   Q3b 	 And which items, if any, on this list, did you or your party actually purchase
         during your visit today? (MULTI CODE)

            RECORD ANSWERS IN GRID BELOW


                                                                          Q3a       Q3b

Food to take home                                                           1         1

Clothing                                                                   2          2

Footwear                                                                   3          3

Leisure Goods (e.g. Books, Tapes/CDs, Videos, Toys)                        4          4

Jewellery                                                                  5          5

Carpets/Furniture                                                          6          6

Electrical Goods/Hi-Fi                                                     7          7

Household Textiles/Soft Furnishings                                        8          8

DIY/Hardware/Garden Products                                               9          9

Chemists Goods                                                             10        10

Household Services(Hairdresser, Dry Cleaners, Laundrettes)                 11         11

Catering Services (Cafes, Takeaways, Pubs, Wine Bars, Restaurants etc)     12        12

Leisure Services (Travel Agents, Betting Shops, Video Shops etc.)          13        13

Financial Services (Banks, Building Societies, Post Office)                14        14

None of These/Purchased nothing today                                      15        15
Job No: GW/05/254


Q4a    Which is your main City, Town or Retail Centre for NON-FOOD shopping
       (i.e. shopping for clothing, footwear and household goods etc) - SINGLE
       CODE

       Craigavon – Rushmere Shopping Ctr    1    Cookstown                            19
       Craigavan – Rushmere Retail Park    2     Forestside / Galwally                20
       Lurgan – Town Centre                3     Glengormley                          21
       Portadown – Town Centre             4     Hillsborough                         22
       Armagh                              5     Holywood                             23
       Antrim                              6     Junction One Outlet Centre           24
       Banbridge                           7     Lisburn                              25
       Bangor                              8     Larne                                26
       Belfast – City Centre               9     Newry                                27
       Belfast – Westwood Centre           10    Newtownabbey – Abbey Centre          28
       Belfast – Kennedy Centre            11    Newtownabbey – Northcott Centre      29
       Belfast – Park Centre               12    Newtown Abbey – Other                30
       Belfast – Yorkgate                  13    Newtownards – Town Centre            31
       Belfast – Connswater                14    Sprucefield Shopping Centre          32
       Belfast – Dairy Farm Centre         15    Other (WRITE IN)
       Belfast – Other                     16    None in particular/Varies            33
       Carrickfergus                       17    DK/Cant remember                     34
       Carryduff                           18



Q4b 	 Excluding mail order and shopping over the Internet, what proportion or
      percentage of your total NON-FOOD expenditure would you say that you
      currently spend here, in this Town Centre? (WRITE IN)

                                                 %

Q4c    Why do you choose…………... as your main NON-FOOD centre? (List up to 3
       answers)

       Close to home/convenient/easy to get to   1   Good quality shops                    6
       Close to work                             2   Cheap prices/Value for money          7
       Good choice/Variety of stores             3   Good/Cheap Public Transport            8
       Better range of large multiple stores     4   Easy parking/Plenty of parking         9
       Because of a specific store               5   Cheap/Free parking                    10
                                                     Habit / always shopped there          11
       Other (Write In) _____________________________________


Q5     How much in total has your party spent today on goods and services in this
       Town Centre today?

        READ OUT                                 £        SPENT NOTHING          REFUSED
        Food to Take Home                                       X                   Y
        Non Food Items                                          X                   Y
        Catering (Restaurant, Café, Pub)                        X                   Y
        Other Services                                          X                   Y
        Total                                                   X                   Y
Job No: GW/05/254




Q6     And how often do you visit this Town Centre for your shopping? (Any
       shopping, including food)

                          Frequency of Visit
        Every Day/Almost Every Day                     1
        2-3 Times a Week                               2
        Once a Week                                    3
        2-3 Times a Month                              4
        Once a Month                                   5
        Less Than Once a Month                         6
        Never                                          7


Q7a 	 Have you come to this Town Centre today direct from home, from work or
      shopping elsewhere?

       Home                                                     1       Q7b
       Work                                                     2       Q8
       Shopping elsewhere (specify)                             3       Q8
       Other (Specify)                                          4       Q8

IF FROM HOME - OTHERS GO TO Q8

Q7b 	 How many miles have you travelled to reach this Town Centre today? And
      how long has your journey taken?

       MILES	                            MINUTES
       0 - 0.9               1           0-5               1

       1 - 1.9               2           5.1 -10           2

       2 - 4.9               3           10.1 -15          3

       5 - 9.9               4           15.1 - 30         4

       10 -14.9              5           30.1 - 60         5

       15 miles or over      6           Over 1 hour       6


ASK ALL

Q8 	   How did you travel to this Town Centre today?

       Car Driver            1           Bicycle           6

       Car Passenger         2           Motorcycle        7

       Bus                   3           Walked            8    

       Coach                 4           Taxi              9    

       Train                 5           Other             10       

Job No: GW/05/254




Q9 	    How long have you spent in this Town Centre today?

        Less than 30 minutes                             1

        30 minutes - 59 minutes                          2

        1 hour - 1 hour 29 minutes                       3

        1 hour 30 minutes - 1 hour 59 minutes            4

        2 hours - 2 hours 29 minutes                     5

        2 hours 30 minutes - 2 hours 59 minutes          6

        3 hours or more                                  7


Q10 	 For each of the product categories I am going to read out, please tell me
      which of the phrases on this card best describes where you would normally
      purchase this product (SHOW CARD B)

READ OUT                                This     This Town Somewhere       Don’t    Main Town
                                        Town      Centre   else not this   Buy       Centre
                                       Centre      and         Town                mentioned at
                                                Elsewhere     Centre                 2 or 3
                                                                                   (WRITE IN)
Food to take home                        1          2            3          4
Ladies and Men’s Clothing                1          2            3          4
Children’s Clothing                      1          2            3          4
Shoes                                    1          2            3          4
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s and
                                         1          2            3          4
Fabrics
Large Electrical Goods                   1          2            3          4
Furniture & Carpets                      1          2            3          4
Health Beauty and Chemists Goods         1          2            3          4
CD’s / Tapes / Records                   1          2            3          4
Jewellery / Gifts                        1          2            3          4
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products         1          2            3          4


Q11 	 From what you know about …………………… how would you describe the shopping in
      this Town Centre, in terms of the balance between large and small shops?

        READ OUT
        Too many small (independent) shops/not enough large (multiple) stores        1
        Too many large (multiple) stores/not enough small (independent) shops        2
        About right                                                                  3
Job No: GW/05/254


Q12 	 Do you think, in general, that shops are:

       READ OUT
       Too Posh / Up Market                    1

       Fine as they are                        2        

       Too cheap / Down Market                 3


Q13 	 And, how would you describe the layout of this Town centre?

       READ OUT
       Too compact / can get congested at times                      1
       Fine as it is                                                 2
       Too spread out / distances between shops are too long         3

Q14 	 Which shops in this Town Centre, if any, are the most important to you?
       (Write in up to 3)

       1.

       2.       


       3.       


Q15 	 Are there any particular retailers that you would like to see in this Town
      Centre, which are not here at present, or are you quite happy? (WRITE IN
       UP TO THREE)

       None / Quite happy                                                     1
       None / DK / can’t think of any                                         2
       Other (Write In)




SHOW CARD C 

Job No: GW/05/254




Q16a Which of these other facilities in this Town Centre do you think needs
     improving. (PROBE: ANY OTHERS)

Q16b And which ONE would be the most important improvement? (ONE CODE
     ONLY)
                                                           GOOD IDEA   MOST WANTED
                                                              16a          16b

        Wider choice / Variety of shops                        1            1

        Better quality stores / goods                          2            2
        More/better places to eat or drink                     3            3
        More/better toilets                                    4            4
        More/better parking facilities                         5            5
        Better public transport                                6            6
        Better cleanliness/make the centre tidier              7            7
        Cleaner Air / Less traffic pollution                   8            8
        Better security/make the centre safer                  9            9
        A bigger/better weekly market                         10           10
        Make centre more attractive (e.g. better shop         11           11
        fronts, planting, paving etc.)
        More/better signage                                   12           12
        More/better information displays                      13           13
        Less traffic congestion                               14           14
        More pedestrianisation                                15           15
        More street entertainment / More things going on      16           16
        More shops open on Sundays                            17           17
        More shops open in the evenings                       18           18
        None of these / DK                                    19           19


Q16c What single change or improvement, if any, could be made to this Town
     Centre, to make you visit it more often for shopping?

       None / Quite happy                                                       1
       None / DK / can’t think of any                                           2
       Other (Write In)




               COMPLETE CLASSIFICATION - THANK RESPONDENT

CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 6

            Retailer Survey
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





           APPENDIX 6A

      Survey Methodology and Sample
Colliers CRE                                 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                      _________




                                        The Retailer Survey

•	 A detailed knowledge of occupiers is vital in making any reasoned assessment about the existing
   and future health of a town centre; for example, the productivity of current floor space and the
   potential for existing stores to soak up some of the growth in consumer expenditure (more spending
   doesn’t always equate to a need for more retail floor space). The retailer survey also produces hard
   data on recent, present and future retail trading- performance (i.e. changing retail sales and profits
   in the form of an index), the extent of investment in staff, premises and merchandise and intentions
   to relocate or close down.


•	 Professional interviewers visited a sample of 200 retail shops in the three town centres, as detailed
   in the table below. The interviewers asked to speak with the shop manager or owner (if unavailable
   they called back) and explained the survey to them, arranging a date for their return to collect the
   completed questionnaire. If the form was not properly completed, the interviewer offered to sit
   down and run through it with them. The questionnaire was accompanied by a covering letter from
   Colliers CRE.


•	 Overall, we achieved positive responses from 110 stores, representing a response rate of 55%. The
   largest number of completed questionnaires came from retailers in Portadown (41), but in
   percentage terms Craigavon generated the best response (75%). We are grateful for the help given
   to us by consultees in encouraging traders to respond to our survey.



                                                        Number of
                                  Number of
                                                        Completed             Response Rate
                Centre           Questionnaires
                                                       Questionnaires             (%)
                                   Delivered
                                                         Received
          Craigavon                     40                   30                      75
          Lurgan                        80                   39                      49
          Portadown                     80                   41                      51
          Total                        200                  110                      55


Note


Questionnaires were delivered during the week beginning 3rd May and collected by 14th May 2005.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

            PLANNING SERVICE





              APPENDIX 6B

  Copy of Covering Letter and Information Sheet
Your Ref
Our Ref    R&C/RAD//Craigavon05
Date       April 2005




                                                                                     Direct Line 020 7344 6872
                                                                                     Direct Fax 020 7344 6984
                                                                                     Mobile       07767 873316
                                                                                     rdoidge@collierscre.co.uk




Dear Sir/Madam

Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Plan 2010
– Retail Study
The DoE Planning Service has appointed Colliers CRE, a leading firm of property consultants, to
undertake a study of the retail sector within the Craigavon Borough to inform the Craigavon Town
Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Plan 2010.

An integral part of our work will be an assessment of the actual retail and economic performance of
the principal town centres in the Craigavon Borough. I believe that an important part of achieving this
is to seek the views of the retailers themselves. The information which we hope to obtain is key to the
successful completion of the retail study, which will inform the preparation of the Plan.

Information provided by you and other retailers in the course of this survey will be treated in the
strictest confidence and no completed questionnaires will be made public. It should be noted that
Colliers CRE are responsible for the distribution and collection of the questionnaires. The Planning
Service will not have access to individual questionnaires that are returned to us.

I would be grateful therefore, if you could find the time to complete the enclosed questionnaire. If you
have any queries, please could you contact Louise Harper of Colliers CRE on 020 7344 6614.

Yours faithfully




Dr Richard Doidge
Head of Research & Consultancy
Colliers CRE
      CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES AND RETAIL

                 DESIGNATIONS PLAN 2010 


                                       RETAIL STUDY 


                                    Survey of Retailers

                                     Information Sheet

                              Survey carried out on behalf of
                   The Department of the Environment – Planning Service



Purpose
ƒ	 To collect information on the recent, current and future retail trading performance of the town centre
   as a whole. The data will be used to inform the preparation of the Plan.

Sample
ƒ	 Approximately 50% of all retail shops in the Craigavon area are being asked to complete the
   questionnaire on a random sample basis.

Confidentiality
ƒ	 The survey is being carried out by a team of professional market researchers. All replies will be
   treated in the strictest confidence and will be aggregated with many other responses in order to
   provide a broad overview of retailing trends and attitudes in the town centre.

Availability of Data
ƒ	 It is intended that the findings of the study will be made available to the Planning Service.


Contacts
ƒ	 If you have any questions regarding the survey, please do not hesitate to contact

                                        Dr Richard Doidge
                                        Study Director
                                        Colliers CRE
                                        9 Marylebone Lane
                                        LONDON
                                        W1U 1HL
                                        Tel: 020 7344 6872
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 6C

             Key Results
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





           APPENDIX 6D

       Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Job No: GW/05/254                                                       CENTRE CODE 





                    STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 

                             BEACON RESEARCH 

     Suite 3, The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs PR3 1YB 

                     Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336 


             DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PLANNING SERVICE 

            RETAILER SURVEY ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (May 2005)

We have been commissioned to undertake an important and confidential study of retailers in this area.
We would be very grateful for your co-operation and assure you that any answers you give will be
treated in total confidence and will be aggregated with many others to provide an overview of retailer
trends and attitudes in this Town Centre. Our interviewer will leave this questionnaire for you to
complete, and will return to collect it in a few days. Thank you for your help.




Q1     What type of shop are you? (TICK BOX)

       a)      Shop selling mainly convenience goods (e.g. Foods, Groceries, Drinks,
               Newspapers and Confectionery)                                                   ‰1
       b)      Shop selling mainly comparison goods (e.g. Clothing, Footwear,
               Household goods and any kind of non-food products)                              ‰2
       c)      Service use (e.g. Hairdresser, Travel Agent, Post Office, Dry Cleaners,
               Take-Away and Undertakers)                                                      ‰3

Q2     If possible, please give the actual net sales area of your premises in sq ft?




       If you do not know the actual figure, please indicate the most likely size band?

       a)      Under 500 sq ft overall sales area                                              ‰1
       b)      500-1000 sq ft overall sales area                                               ‰2
       c)      1001-2000 sq ft overall sales area                                              ‰3
       d)      Over 2000 sq ft                                                                 ‰4
Q3     Is your shop part of a:

       a)      National multiple chain                                                         ‰1
       b)      Regional multiple chain                                                         ‰2
       c)      An independent/individual shop                                                  ‰3
Job No: GW/05/254


Q4 	   (i)      How long have you been trading from the current premises?

                Less than a year                                                             ‰1
                1-2 years                                                                    ‰2
                3-5 years                                                                    ‰3
                6-10 years                                                                   ‰4
                Over 10 years                                                                ‰5
If you have been at your premises for less than a year answer Q4 (ii) - Otherwise go to Q5

Q4 	   (ii)     Did you relocate here from somewhere else in the Town Centre?

                 Yes                                                                         ‰1
                 No                                                                          ‰2

Q5 	   During the past 12 months (or since you have been at this address if less than 1 year)
       has there been a major refurbishment/physical upgrade of your premises?

       Refurbished                                                                           ‰1
       No change                                                                             ‰2
       Don’t know                                                                            ‰3
Q6 	   During the past 12 months (or since you have been at this address if less than 1 year)
       has the floor space of your shop been significantly extended or reduced?

       Extended                                                                              ‰1
       No change                                                                             ‰2
       Reduced                                                                               ‰3
       Don’t know                                                                            ‰4
Q7 	   During the past 12 months (or since you have been at this address if less than 1 year)
       has the range of products/services sold at your shop been significantly extended or
       reduced?

       Extended                                                                              ‰1
       No change                                                                             ‰2
       Reduced                                                                               ‰3
       Don’t know                                                                            ‰4

Q8      (i) 	   How many people currently work in your shop, including any management or
                owners?

                                                                          Number of People
                    Full time (30 + hours per week)
                    Part time (less than 30 hours per week)
Job No: GW/05/254


       (ii)    Have you experienced any of the following within the past 12 months?

                                                                              Yes        No
               a)       Higher than anticipated staff turnover
                    ‰                   ‰
               If yes please give the reason why?


               b)       Higher than anticipated increases in                   Yes       No
                        wages / salaries
               ‰                    ‰
               If yes please give the reason why?

               c)       A need to improve conditions of                       Yes        No
                        employment
               ‰                    ‰
               If yes please give the reason why?


Q9     (i)     Within the next 12 months, are you likely to stay in your existing
               accommodation, relocate or close down your shop?

               a)        Remain in your existing unit/accommodation             ‰1 Go To Q9(ii)
               b)        Relocate within the Town Centre                        ‰2 Go To Q9(iii)
               c)        Relocate elsewhere                                     ‰3 Go To Q9(iii)
               d)        Close down the shop                                    ‰4 Go To Q9(iv)
       (ii)    If a) at Q9 (i), do you have any firm plans to do any of the following? (Tick as
               many as are relevant)

               Refurbish the premises                                                         ‰1
               Extend the sales space of the premises                                         ‰2
               Reduce the sales space of the premises                                         ‰3
               Increase the range of merchandise/services                                     ‰4
               Decrease the range of merchandise/services                                     ‰5
               Increase the number of jobs                                                    ‰6
               Decrease the number of jobs                                                    ‰7
               None of these                                                                  ‰8
       (iii)   If b) or c) at Q9 (i), what is the main reason for relocating the shop?

               Need bigger premises                                                           ‰1
               Need better-located premises                                                   ‰2
               Need smaller/more economic premises                                            ‰3
               Other reason - please specify
Job No: GW/05/254




        (iv)   If d) at Q9 (i), why is the shop closing down?

               Lease expires                                                                ‰1
               Poor trading conditions                                                      ‰2
               Retiring or moving                                                           ‰3
               Rents too high                                                               ‰4
               Other reason - please specify


Q10    Compared to other outlets in your chain, how is your shop in this Town Centre
       currently performing in terms of sales/turnover?

       a)      Above average chain sales performance                                        ‰1
       b)      Average chain sales level                                                    ‰2
       c)      Below average chain sales performance                                        ‰3
       d)      Not part of a chain                                                          ‰4
Q11    Compared to other outlets in your chain, is your shop in this Town Centre achieving:

       a)      Above average profitability 	                                                ‰1
       b)      Average profitability           	                                            ‰2
       c)      Below average profitability 	                                                ‰3
       d)      Not part of a chain 	                                                        ‰4

If you have been in the Town Centre for 12 months or more, please answer Q12, otherwise go
to Q13


Q12    (i) 	   I would now like you to think about your sales and profitability, compared to the
               recent past.

               If May 2004 (one year ago) = 100% please indicate how this compares to the
               current situation by writing in the present levels of Sales and Profitability in the
               form of an index (eg if down 10% write 90 or if up 7% write in 107). (Please base
               figures on current prices) i.e. including inflation.

                                                    May 2004                       Now
                Sales Turnover                        100
                Profitability                         100
Job No: GW/05/254




   (ii)      If increase in sales at Q12 (i) please give main reasons why?
             	
             ( tick up to 3 answers or write in)
             There are similar numbers of shoppers around, but they are each spending more        ‰1
             There are more shoppers around and they are each spending more                       ‰2
             There are more shoppers around, and each one is spending is about the same           ‰3
             We are attracting a bigger share of sales in this Town Centre although
             the overall level of trade in this Town Centre is not increasing                     ‰4
             Better promotions/pricing 	                                                          ‰5
             Better customer service 	                                                            ‰6
             Have extended the store 	                                                            ‰7
             Have refurbished the store 	                                                         ‰8
             Have increased/changed the range of merchandise 	                                    ‰9
             This Town Centre is much safer for shoppers than a year ago 	                        ‰10
             Other - please specify

   (iii)     If decrease in sales at Q12 (i) please give main reasons why?
             	
             (tick up to 3 answers or write in)
             There are similar numbers of shoppers around, but they are each spending less        ‰1
             There are fewer shoppers around, and each is spending about the same                 ‰2
             There are fewer shoppers around and they are each spending less                      ‰3
             We are attracting a smaller share of sales in this Town Centre although
             the overall level of trade in this Town Centre is being maintained                   ‰4
             Increased competition from new retailers in this Town Centre                         ‰5
             Inability of shoppers to park outside/close to the shop                              ‰6
             Increase in competition from other Town or City Centres                              ‰7
             Increase in competition from out of town shopping                                    ‰8
             More people shopping on the Internet                                                 ‰9
             Other - please specify

Q13 (i)      Looking to the future, how do you anticipate that your sales/turnover at this shop
               will change over the next 12 months?
             Increase                                                                 ‰1     Go    To
                Q13(ii)
             Remain static                                                            ‰2 Go To Q14
             Decrease                                                                 ‰3Go To Q13(iii)
             Don’t know                                                               ‰4 Go To Q14
      (ii)   If increase at Q13 (i) - by roughly what percentage do you expect your turnover to
                 	
                  increase over the next 12 months?           %

             Reason for increase:
Job No: GW/05/254




        (iii) 	   If decrease at Q13 (i) - by roughly what percentage do you expect your turnover
                  to decrease over the next 12 months?                        %

                  Reason for decrease:

Q14 	    At present, how would you best describe the sales performance of your store? (Tick
         one box only)

         The sales per sq ft is too high / it is causing some operational problems
         and affecting our customers (e.g. in-store congestion)                       ‰1 Go to Q15(ii)
         The sales per sq ft is about right (i.e. there is no evidence of
         under or over trading)                                                         ‰2 Go to Q16
         The sales per sq ft is too low / I would like to achieve a higher sales density
         (better performance) in order to maintain the viability of the shop            ‰3 Go to Q15(i)
If answer 3 to Q14 - Otherwise go to Q15 (ii)

Q15      (i) 	    To accommodate such an increase in sales per sq ft, would you need to do any
                  of the following?
                  (Tick all those that apply)

                  Extend opening hours of the shop 	                                               ‰1
                  Significantly improve / change your product range                                ‰2
                  Other (Write In)
                  None of these is necessary to boost sales per sq ft significantly                ‰3
If answer 1 to Q14 - Otherwise go to Q16

Q15      (ii)     What do you intend to do, if anything, to overcome this problem?
                  (Tick all those that apply)

                  Extend the sales area of the shop                                                ‰1
                  Relocate to a bigger shop unit                                                   ‰2
                  Change the merchandise / product range                                           ‰3
                  Alter the layout of the shop                                                     ‰4
                  Other (Write In)
                  Don’t plan to do anything 	                                                      ‰5
Q16 	    How do you rate your premises in this Town Centre against each of the following
         criteria?

         Criteria 	                     Very Good      Good        Average       Poor       Very Poor
         Pitch                              ‰1              ‰2        ‰3              ‰4           ‰5
        Standard of Accommodation           ‰1              ‰2        ‰3              ‰4           ‰5
Q17 	    What is your opinion of this Town Centre’s market positioning in shopping terms?

         Too up market         ‰1           Fine as it is        ‰2          Too down market     ‰3
Job No: GW/05/254




Q18a    How would you describe this Town Centre’s current shopping space and trading mix?

        Too many small (independent) shops/not enough large (multiple) stores                         ‰1
        About the right mix                                                                           ‰2
        Too many large (multiple) stores/not enough small (independent) shops                         ‰3
Q18b    And how would you describe the layout of this Town Centre?

        Too compact / can get congested at times                                                      ‰1
        Fine as it is                                                                                 ‰2
        Too spread out / distances between shops are too long                                         ‰3
Q19     Here is a list of different factors, which might affect the success of this Town Centre as
        a retail centre. For each one in turn, please tell me:

        a)       How you rate this Town Centre (CIRCLE ONE ANSWER FOR EACH FACTOR)

        b)       Whether it is better, worse or the same as it was in May 2004 (one year ago).

                                                              a                                 b
                                         Very   Quite   Neither   Quite   Very   DK   Better   Same   Worse
                                         Good   Good     good     Poor    Poor
                                                          nor
                                                         poor
Rents/Rates                               1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Availability of parking                   1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Parking charges                           1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Traffic Congestion                        1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Public Transport Services                 1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Safety/Security for shoppers              1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Range of goods available                  1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Quality of goods available                1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Entertainment/Leisure Facilities          1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Marketing of the Centre                   1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
Liveliness/street life/ character         1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
of the Centre
Quality/Number of places to eat           1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
and drink
General shopping environment              1      2        3        4       5     6      1       2      3
/Appearance of Centre

Q20     (i) 	    Which retailers, if any, do you consider are the most important in attracting
                 shoppers into this Town Centre? (That is, which stores are the main ‘anchors’
                 please list up to 3.)

                 1.

                 2.         


                 3.         

Job No: GW/05/254




     (ii) 	   And compared to say, five years ago, how do you think the trading performance
              of this Town centre has changed?

              Has got a lot stronger                                                    ‰1
              Has got a little stronger                                                 ‰2
              Has stayed about the same                                                 ‰3
              Has got a little worse                                                    ‰4
              Has got a lot worse                                                       ‰5
              Don’t Know / have not been here five years                                ‰6
Q21 	   In planning for the future of this Town Centre, what do you think are the three most
        important things listed below? Please tick three boxes only

        a)      Seek to increase range of national multiple retailer’s                  ‰1
        b)      Seek to increase range of local/speciality retailer’s                   ‰2
        c)      Seek to improve quality of shops                                        ‰3
        d)      Improve appearance of the centres streets / open spaces                 ‰4
        e)      Make centre safer / reduce crime & vandalism (e.g. CCTV, Policing,
                Lighting etc.)                                                          ‰5
        f)      Remove/reduce traffic congestion                                        ‰6
        g)      Provide more housing in the centre                                      ‰7
        h)      Improve frequency of bus services to the centre                         ‰8
        i)      Provide a children’s crèche                                             ‰9
        j)      Improve / extend public car parking in the Centre                       ‰10
        k)      Provide better entertainment and leisure, especially in the evening’s   ‰11
        l)      Improve quality and range of cafes and restaurants                      ‰12
        m)      Improve pedestrian links and facilities throughout the centre           ‰13
        n)      Improve quality of shop units / retail accommodation                    ‰14
        o)      Encourage/Promote Sunday trading                                        ‰15
        p)      Promote/Publicise the attractions of the Centre                         ‰16
        q)      Provide and improve bus facilities in the Centre                        ‰17
        r)      Provide better access / parking facilities for the disabled             ‰18
        s)      Provide additional toilets                                              ‰19
        t)      Repair / Conserve Historic buildings                                    ‰20
        u)      Improve air quality / Reduce traffic pollution                          ‰21
                Other - please specify
Job No: GW/05/254




Q22 	   Are there any particular retailers that you would like to see locating in this Town Centre
        that would improve the retail offer and attraction of the centre to shoppers?

        YES                                                                                ‰1
        NO                                                                                 ‰2
Q23 	   If you answered YES at Q22 please specify which ones:-




Q24     Would you be in favour, or not, of additional retail floor space being provided in this
        Town Centre to enable new retailers to locate in the Centre?

        YES - in favour                                                                    ‰1
        NO - not in favour                                                                 ‰2
Q25a    Please think carefully about this Town Centre. Given what you know about other
        centres, do you think the present number of vacant units in the Town Centre is
        acceptable, or not?

        YES                                                                                ‰1
        NO                                                                                 ‰2
Q25b    If you said no - In what way, if any, does the number of vacant units in the Town Centre
        impact upon the trading performance of your own shop? (Write In)




Q26a    Given what you know about others Towns, do you think the present number of service
        businesses in this Town Centre is acceptable or not?

        No - Too high                                                                      ‰1
        Yes - About right                                                                  ‰2
        No - Too few                                                                       ‰3
Q26b    If you said too high - What types of service businesses cause you most concern?
        (Please tick all those that apply)

        Financial Services (Banks, Building Societies, Estate Agents etc.)                 ‰1
        Household Services (Hairdressers, Dry Cleaners, Laundrettes etc.)                  ‰2
        Catering Services (Cafes, Takeaways, Pubs, Wine Bars, Restaurants etc.)            ‰3
        Leisure Services (Travel Agents, Betting Shops, Video Shops etc.)                  ‰4
Job No: GW/05/254



Finally, there has been quite a lot of publicity recently about E - Shopping, that is to say,
shopping on the Internet.


Q27a 	 What effect, if any, do you think shopping on the Internet will have on the retail
       turnover of this Town Centre as a whole?


Q27b 	 And what effect, if any, do you think shopping on the Internet will have on the retail
       turnover of your own shop?

                                                     Q27a               Q27b

       Will increase turnover a lot                   ‰1                 ‰1
       Will increase turnover a little                ‰2                 ‰2
       Will have no noticeable affect at all          ‰3                 ‰3
       Will decrease turnover a little                ‰4                 ‰4
       Will decrease turnover a lot                   ‰5                 ‰5



                           THANK YOU FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE

CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 7

           Pedestrian Counts
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 7A

          Survey Methodology
Colliers CRE                                Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                _    _________




                                      Pedestrian Flow Counts

•	 Pedestrian counts provide ‘hard’ data on the absolute levels of foot fall throughout a town centre
   and enable relative levels of customer flows to be identified and mapped. Two-way pedestrian flow
   counts were undertaken at eight locations within each of the three town centres in Craigavon
   District. The locations of all count points were agreed with The Planning Service prior to the
   survey. All the counts took place between 10.00 hours and 16.00 hours daily on Wednesday 4th,
   Friday 6th, and Saturday 7th May 2005. Therefore, all the pedestrian flows are directly comparable
   with one another.


•	 At each point pedestrian flows were counted for an agreed period of time each hour (normally)
   across the full width of the street in each direction. The results were then grossed up by an
   appropriate factor to produce equivalent hourly flows in each direction at every point. The sum of
   the hourly flows for the six hour period gives the estimated daily flows.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 7B

             Key Results
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

        PLANNING SERVICE





          APPENDIX 8

            Photographs
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




                        Photo 1: Craigavon: General view of the Rushmere Shopping Centre




    Photo 2: Craigavon: Entrance to Rushmere Shopping Centre, adjoining Sainsbury’s
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




                              Photo 3: Craigavon: View of rear of Rushmere Shopping Centre




                         Photo 4: Craigavon: Land adjoining the Rushmere Shopping Centre
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




            Photo 5: Craigavon: Rushmere Shopping Centre, view of the new mall towards 

                                          Debenhams 





                    Photo 6: Craigavon: Rushmere Shopping Centre, view from Debenhams
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




                            Photo 7: Lurgan: View along Market Street towards Church Place




                           Photo 8: Lurgan: The primary shopping frontage in Market Street
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




                                              Photo 9: Lurgan: The eastern end of the High Street




           Photo 10: Lurgan: View west along William Street towards the railway crossing
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




                                           Photo 11: Lurgan: Existing retailing along Castle Lane




                            Photo 12: Lurgan: The new bypass to the south of the town centre
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




                     Photo 13: Portadown: View along Church Street towards Market Street




                                             Photo 14: Portadown: Public Space in Market Street
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




  Photo 15: Portadown: Car-parking and rear entrances to the Magowan West and High 

                            Street Mall Shopping Centres 





                                                Photo 16: Portadown: View east along West Street
Colliers CRE                                                                                    Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                     Department of Environment, Planning Service

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




                                             Photo 17: Portadown: Millennium Court Arts Centre




                                            Photo 18: Portadown: The Meadows Shopping Centre
  CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

      AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




       DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

                PLANNING SERVICE





                   APPENDIX 9

    Retail Floorspace Data for Craigavon District and 

Constituent Towns / Settlements (Supplied by The Planning 

 Service as of January 2005 and up-dated to May 2005 by 

                      Colliers CRE) 

CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

   AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




    DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

             PLANNING SERVICE





               APPENDIX 10

 Experian Business Strategies Data / Technical Data
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

            PLANNING SERVICE





             APPENDIX 10A

  Survey Area Consumer Retail Expenditure Data
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

            PLANNING SERVICE





             APPENDIX 10B

 Definitions of Convenience and Comparison Goods
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

    AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




     DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

              PLANNING SERVICE





               APPENDIX 10C

Consumer Retail Expenditure Projections and Forecasts
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

          PLANNING SERVICE





            APPENDIX 10D

    Non-Store Retail Expenditure Estimates
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

  AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




   DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

           PLANNING SERVICE





             APPENDIX 10E

    Estimating and Projecting Sales Densities
 CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

     AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




      DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

              PLANNING SERVICE





                APPENDIX 10F

Methodology for Estimating Future Growth in Population
                       by Zone
Appendix 10F – Methodology for Estimating Future Growth in Population by
Zone


1. 	   For each of the 16 household survey zones, we define those wards that
       comprise the zone.


2. 	   We then obtain the population total for 2003 (the latest available for each
       ward). Our source is:
       www.nisra.gov.uk/census/Census2001Output/KeyStatistics/keystats


3. 	   We then add together the appropriate 2003 ward populations to generate the
       2003 population for each of the 16 survey zones.


4. 	   Lastly, we project the 2003 ward (and zone) population totals forward to the
       base year (2005) and the design years of 2010 and 2015 by applying district-
       wide population projections sourced from the link below. We assume that
       (any) population growth for a district is spread in proportion across each of its
       constituent wards. The link is:
       www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/financeandpersonnel/DMB/pop_project
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

   AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




    DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

            PLANNING SERVICE





               APPENDIX 11

Retail Floorspace Commitments and Proposals within 

                 Craigavon District 

CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

    AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




     DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

              PLANNING SERVICE





               APPENDIX 11A

Schedule of Retail Commitments in Craigavon District: 

Estimated Retail Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by 

            Category of Goods and Centre 

Colliers CRE                                                                                                            Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                                                                                            Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                                                                                                            _____




Schedule of Retail Commitments in Craigavon District (ie. Schemes with planning consent as at May 2005)

CRAIGAVON
       Location             Description of        Assumed         Current           Gross         Estimated          Assumed             Estimated           Assumed             Estimated
                            Development            Goods           Status           Retail        Net Retail       Sales Density        Turnover in        Sales Density        Turnover in
                                                  Category                       Floorspace       Floorspace          in 2010              2010               in 2015              2015
                                                                                   (Sq M)           (Sq M)         (£ per Sq M)            (£m)            (£ per Sq M)            (£m)
1 Land at Northway,         Factory Outlet      Comparison       Not                3,720            2,980             3,500                10.4               3,912                11.7
  Balteagh Road(1)          Centre              (100%)           Started
                                                (Non-Bulky)

LURGAN 

       Location             Description of        Assumed         Current           Gross         Estimated          Assumed             Estimated           Assumed             Estimated
                            Development            Goods           Status           Retail        Net Retail       Sales Density        Turnover in        Sales Density        Turnover in
                                                  Category                       Floorspace       Floorspace          in 2010              2010               in 2015              2015
                                                                                   (Sq M)           (Sq M)         (£ per Sq M)            (£m)            (£ per Sq M)            (£m)
1 Land to Westside          Retail              Comparison       Not                9,290            8,360             1,500                12.5               1,677                14.0
  of Castle Lane            Warehouses          (100%)           Started
                                                (Bulky)
2 Between New               Tesco               Convenience      Not                5,468             3,280         Conv. 7,500          Conv. 17.22        Conv. 7,786         Conv. 17.92
  Road / Carnegie           Superstore          (70%) and        Started                                            Comp. 4,000          Comp. 3.9          Comp. 4,471         Comp. 4.4
  Street / Union                                Comparison
  Street                                        (30%) (Non-
                                                Bulky)
3 Land to rear of 31        Retail              Comparison       Not                1,954             1,760             1,500                2.6                1,677                3.0
  High Street               Warehouses          (100%)           Started
                                                (Bulky)
4 Malcolm Road              Retail              Comparison       Not                 830               750              1,500                1.1                1.677                1.3
                            Warehouses          (100%)           Started
                                                (Bulky)

1
 A separate application for a superstore has been submitted on this site, see scheme (1) for Craigavon listed under retail proposals. 

2
 In our quantitative need assessment we assume that the existing Tesco store in Castle Lane, Lurgan (1,500 sq m net) will cease trading when the new superstore opens. Thus the estimated net 

additional increase in convenience goods turnover will be £5.9m in 2010 and £6.2m in 2015.

Colliers CRE                                                                                                                  Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005                                                                                                                                  Department of Environment, Planning Service
                                                                                                                                                                                         _____




PORTADOWN
          Location              Description of        Assumed          Current           Gross          Estimated          Assumed               Estimated      Assumed        Estimated
                                Development            Goods            Status           Retail         Net Retail       Sales Density          Turnover in   Sales Density   Turnover in
                                                      Category                        Floorspace        Floorspace          in 2010                2010          in 2015         2015
                                                                                        (Sq M)            (Sq M)         (£ per Sq M)              (£m)       (£ per Sq M)       (£m)
1 Land at Edenderry1            Retail              Comparison        Not               10,219             9,200             1,500                  13.8          1,677           15.4
                                Warehouses          (100%)            Started
                                                    (Bulky)
2 10 Carleton Street            Change of use       Comparison        Not                  71                46               4,000                 0.2          4,471             0.2
                                to retail           (100%)            Started
                                                    (Non-Bulky)
3 9-11 Mandeville               Demolition          Comparison        Not                 174               113               4,000                 0.5          4,471             0.5
  Street                        and new build       (100%)            Started
                                to provide          (Non-Bulky)
                                retail
4 20 Church Street              Extension to        Comparison        Not                  90                59               4,000                 0.2          4,471             0.3
                                existing shop       (100%)            Started
                                                    (Non-Bulky)

Source: The DoE, Planning Service.




1
    A separate application for a superstore has also been submitted on this site, see scheme (2) for Portadown listed under retail proposals.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES 

   AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY 




    DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, 

             PLANNING SERVICE





               APPENDIX 11B

 Schedule of Retail Proposals in Craigavon District:

Estimated Retail Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by 

           Category of Goods and Centre 

Colliers CRE                                                                                                 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                                 Department of Environment, Planning Service

                                                                                                                                                                           _____




Schedule of Retail Proposals in Craigavon District (ie. Applications submitted awaiting a planning decision as at May 2005)


CRAIGAVON

       Location           Description of     Assumed         Current         Gross        Estimated        Assumed           Estimated         Assumed           Estimated
                          Development         Goods           Status         Retail       Net Retail     Sales Density      Turnover in      Sales Density      Turnover in
                                             Category                     Floorspace      Floorspace        in 2010            2010             in 2015            2015
                                                                            (Sq M)          (Sq M)       (£ per Sq M)          (£m)          (£ per Sq M)          (£m)
1 Land at Northway,       Superstore        Convenience     Outline          8,360           5,020        Conv. 7,500        Conv. 24.5       Conv. 7,786        Conv. 25.4
  Balteagh Road(1)                          (65% and        Application                                  Comp. 4,000         Comp. 7.0       Comp. 4,471         Comp. 7.9
                                            Comparison
                                            (35%) (Non-
                                            Bulky)
2 Rushmere                Extension to      Comparison      Outline          6,295           4,090            4,000             16.4              4,471             18.3
  Shopping Centre         existing          (100%)          Application
                          shopping          (Non-Bulky)
                          centre
3 Marlborough Retail      Superstore        Convenience     Outline         10,800           6,480        Conv. 7,500        Conv. 29.2       Conv. 7,786        Conv. 30.3
  Park(2)                                   (60%) and       Application                                   Comp. 4,000        Comp. 10.4       Comp. 4,471        Comp. 11.6
                                            Comparison
                                            (40%)


LURGAN

There are no retail proposals in Lurgan.


1
  This proposal is on the same site as scheme (1) for Craigavon listed under the retail commitments. In practice, this proposal can only go ahead if the existing retail
commitment does not proceed. For the same reason, we do not list two other applications for the same site relating to comparison goods retail, which we consider is less
likely to proceed than the superstore. In our quantitative retail need assessment we exclude the superstore proposal giving precedence to the comparison goods retail
commitment on the same Northway site.
2
  There is a second application for this same site relating to a 10,532 sq m gross superstore development. We have chosen the larger of the two alternative schemes to include
in our schedule and in our quantitative need assessment.
Colliers CRE                                                                                              Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study

November 2005                                                                                                              Department of Environment, Planning Service

                                                                                                                                                                        _____




PORTADOWN

       Location            Description of      Assumed       Current         Gross     Estimated        Assumed          Estimated         Assumed          Estimated
                           Development          Goods         Status         Retail    Net Retail     Sales Density     Turnover in      Sales Density     Turnover in
                                               Category                   Floorspace   Floorspace        in 2010           2010             in 2015           2015
                                                                            (Sq M)       (Sq M)       (£ per Sq M)         (£m)          (£ per Sq M)         (£m)
1 Loughgall Road           Mixed use          Convenience   Application      4,952        3,220        Conv. 5,000       Conv. 1.8        Conv. 5,190       Conv. 1.8
                           development,       (11%),        Pending                                   Comp. 3,750       Comp. 10.7       Comp. 4,192       Comp. 12.0
                           including retail   Retail
                                              Warehouses
                                              (21%) and
                                              Other
                                              Comparison
                                              (68%)
2 Land at                  Superstore         Convenience   Application     10,219       6,130        Conv. 7,500        Conv. 27.6      Conv. 7,786       Conv. 28.6
  Edenderry(1)                                (60%) and     Pending                                   Comp. 4,000        Comp. 9.8       Comp. 4,471       Comp. 11.0
                                              Comparison
                                              (40%) (Non-
                                              Bulky)

Source: The DoE, Planning Service.




1
 An approval for bulky comparison goods has already been granted on this same Edenderry site (see scheme (2) for Portadown listed under the retail commitments). This
scheme has been included as a retail commitment in our quantitative retail need assessment.. However, if the superstore was granted planning consent then the bulky
comparison goods scheme could not proceed.

				
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