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Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
____________________ _________
CONTENTS PAGE
1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................1
Terms of Reference...................................................................................................................1
Background and Planning Context ...........................................................................................2
Study Approach ........................................................................................................................4
Structure of the Report..............................................................................................................7
2. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND POLICY FRAMEWORK .............................................9
Regional Economic Context .....................................................................................................9
Planning Policy Framework....................................................................................................10
Lurgan Development Framework ...........................................................................................11
Portadown Development Framework .....................................................................................12
Retail Hierarchy and Market Overview ..................................................................................13
Consultations and Representations: Key Themes ...................................................................16
3. SUB-REGIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS AND RETAIL TRADING
PERFORMANCE .................................................................................................................18
Introduction.............................................................................................................................18
Survey Methodology and Catchment Area Definition............................................................19
Assessment of the Craigavon District Retail Economy as a Whole .......................................21
Town Catchment Areas...........................................................................................................24
Town Dominance....................................................................................................................26
Characteristics of Shopper Behaviour.....................................................................................27
4. VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF TOWN CENTRES.....................................................30
The Role and Requirements of PPS 5.....................................................................................30
Approach to Measuring Vitality and Viability .......................................................................31
Craigavon Town Centre .........................................................................................................33
Lurgan Town Centre ...............................................................................................................40
Portadown Town Centre .........................................................................................................46
Health Check Summary and Qualitative Need .......................................................................52
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
____________________ _________
5. QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: METHODOLOGY, DATA SOURCES AND
ASSUMPTIONS....................................................................................................................55
Objectives ...............................................................................................................................55
Quantitative Need Methodology.............................................................................................55
The Household Telephone Survey..........................................................................................58
Principal Data Sources............................................................................................................60
Interpretation and Definitions .................................................................................................62
6. Q
UANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: ASSESSMENT AND RESULTS ...........................70
Objectives ...............................................................................................................................70
Approach.................................................................................................................................71
Analysis: Comparison Goods .................................................................................................72
Analysis: Convenience Goods ................................................................................................79
Summary .................................................................................................................................82
7. STUDY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...............................................84
Introduction.............................................................................................................................84
Retail Floorspace Need ...........................................................................................................84
Why is there a Lack of Quantitative Need? ............................................................................87
Wider Retail and Economic Consideration.............................................................................91
Retail Boundaries, Cores and Frontages .................................................................................93
Key Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ....................................................................97
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
____________________ _________
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Operational Specification (Extract)
Appendix 2 Commissioner’s Report on Public Inquiry into Craigavon Local
Plan (Extract)
Appendix 3 Schedule of Consultations Undertaken
Appendix 4 Household Telephone Survey
Appendix 4A Survey Methodology and Sampling
Appendix 4B Key Results
Appendix 4C Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Appendix 5 Shopper Survey
Appendix 5A Survey Methodology and Sample
Appendix 5B Key Results
Appendix 5C Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Appendix 6 Retailer Survey
Appendix 6A Survey Methodology and Sample
Appendix 6B Copy of Covering Letter and Information Sheet
Appendix 6C Key Results
Appendix 6D Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Appendix 7 Pedestrian Counts
Appendix 7A Survey Methodology
Appendix 7B Key Results
Appendix 8 Photographs
Appendix 9 Retail Floorspace Data for Craigavon District and Constituent
Towns / Settlements (Supplied by The Planning Service as of
January 2005 and up-dated to May 2005 by Colliers CRE)
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
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Appendix 10 Experian Business Strategies Data / Technical Data
Appendix 10A Survey Area Consumer Retail Expenditure Data
Appendix 10B Definition of Convenience and Comparison Goods
Appendix 10C Consumer Retail Expenditure Projections and Forecasts
Appendix 10D Non-Store Retail Expenditure Estimates
Appendix 10E Estimating and Projecting Sales Densities
Appendix 10F Methodology for Estimating Future Growth in Population by Zone
Appendix 11 Retail Floorspace Commitments and Proposals within Craigavon
District
Appendix 11A Schedule of Retail Commitments in Craigavon District: Estimated
Retail Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by Category of Goods and
Centre
Appendix 11B Schedule of Retail Proposals in Craigavon District: Estimated Retail
Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by Category of Goods and Centre
This report has been prepared by
Colliers CRE Colliers CRE
9 Marylebone Lane McKelvey House
London 25 Wellington Place
W1U 1HL Belfast BT1 6GQ
Tel: 020 7935 4499 Tel: 02890 240500
Fax: 020 7344 6984 Fax: 02890 237278
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Catchment Area The geographical area from which a centre attracts the majority of its
retail turnover.
Core Catchment Comprises the area (or zones) from which named centres or stores
attract the majority of generated retail expenditure (ie. 51% or more).
Primary Catchment Comprises the areas from which named centres or stores attract the
largest single flow of generated retail expenditure (note: this may be
less than 50%).
Secondary Catchment Comprises the remaining areas from which named centres or stores
attract 10% or more of generated retail expenditure.
Tertiary Catchment Comprises all remaining areas from which named centres or stores
attract 2% or more of generated retail expenditure.
Comparison Goods Consumer expenditure on non-food shopping.
Convenience Goods Consumer expenditure on food and grocery shopping.
Expenditure Leakage Proportion of retail expenditure generated within a centre’s (or store’s)
catchment area that is not spent within the centre (store).
Expenditure Retention The turnover of a centre (or store) expressed as a proportion of the total
amount of retail expenditure generated within its catchment area.
Headroom Expenditure The quantum of consumer expenditure that will be available within the
catchment areas of named centres to support additional retail
floorspace.
Market Share The proportion of generated retail expenditure in any area that is spent
at a particular centre or store.
Retail Capacity (or The amount of additional retail floorspace which will be supported in a
quantitative need) particular centre or area in the future given the growth in population
and consumer expenditure per head.
Colliers CRE Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan: Retail Sector Study
June 2003 Department of Environment, Planning Service
Household Telephone A telephone survey of households over a large area which provides
Survey mainly quantitative data on shopping trip patterns and expenditure
flows for food and non-food shopping.
Retailer Survey A questionnaire survey of the managers / owners of retail shops within
a centre, providing data on a range of attitudinal and store performance
criteria.
Shopper Survey Face to face street interviews with shoppers in a centre, providing
mainly qualitative data on trip characteristics and attitudes towards the
centre.
Pedestrian Flow Counts Counts of the number of people passing by a range of points
throughout a centre, providing data on shopper numbers and their
variation spatially.
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
1. INTRODUCTION
Terms of Reference
1.1 Colliers CRE was instructed by The Department of the Environment, Planning
Service in February, 2005 to carry out a study of retailing in Craigavon District in
relation to the Craigavon Area Plan. The purpose of the study is to undertake an
assessment of the potential need for additional shopping floorspace over the Plan
period to 2010, to carry out town centre health checks and to bring forward
recommendations in relation to primary retail cores, primary retail frontages and town
centre boundaries.
1.2 Craigavon District embraces the three towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown
and their immediate rural hinterlands, an area with a population of around 81,000.
The Craigavon Area Plan is being prepared within the context of Shaping our Future
– Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland 20251. Its purpose is to guide
and identify land use proposals and policies throughout the Plan area.
1.3 The Operational Specification for this study (reproduced in full in Appendix 1) sets
out the following main objectives:
• To assess the potential need for additional shopping floorspace within
Craigavon District and its main centres over the Plan period up to 2010:
- by different retail sectors (eg. convenience goods and comparison
goods);
- to include the definition of the main town centre catchment areas
and an analysis of the in-flow, retention and leakage of retail
expenditure for each;
- to take into account any changes in expenditure, turnover and
trading patterns through to 2010 and 2015; and
- to consider qualitative improvements, if any, that may be necessary
to the existing retail floorspace provision in the District.
1
Published by the Department for Regional Development in September 2001.
1
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
• To carry out “health checks” for Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown town
centres based on the following indicators:
- accessibility
- customer views
- diversity of uses
- environmental quality
- pedestrian flow
- retailer profile
- existing composition and retailer demand
- vacancy rates
and, if available,
- prime rental values.
In addition, the health checks should take retailers views into account.
• Lastly, in relation to the existing Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown town
centres, put forward recommendations, as appropriate, in relation to primary
retail frontage designations, primary retail core designations and town centre
(boundary) designations, taking into account the need for additional retail
floorspace over the Plan period.
1.4 Reflecting the range of study objectives outlined above, it should be borne in mind
that this report primarily provides a strategic assessment of retailing throughout the
Craigavon area and does not directly address individual sites and / or development
proposals.
Background and Planning Context
1.5 The Craigavon Area Plan 2010 has been prepared and has now been adopted (August
2004) by the Department of Environment for Northern Ireland under the provisions of
Part III of the Planning (Northern Ireland) Order 1991.
1.6 Following the Public Inquiry into the Plan, the Planning Appeals Commission
concluded that the Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown town centres should be redrawn
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Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
on the basis of the broad principles set out in paragraphs 4.04.17 to 4.04.25 of the
Commissioner’s Report (reproduced in Appendix 2).
1.7 The Department accepted the Commission’s recommendation that the boundaries for
the three town centres should be redrawn and the Adoption Statement for the Plan
commits the Department to carrying out a retail study to assist in this process.
1.8 Existing shopping policies are contained in the Regional Development Strategy,
Planning Policy Statement 5, “Retailing and Town Centres” and extant Area Plans.
The Department for Regional Development (DRD) has commenced a review of PPS
5 and a consultation draft is expected to be published shortly.
1.9 In broad terms, current planning policy in Northern Ireland is as follows:
• there is no justifiable need for any new regional out-of-town shopping
centres;
• town centres are the preferred location for major comparison and mixed
retailing developments with a floorspace of over 1,000 sq m gross;
• major proposals for comparison or mixed retailing in out of centre locations
will only be permitted if suitable town centre sites are not available and
where the development satisfies specific criteria1;
• the ‘health’ of town centres will be taken into account in assessing the impact
of out of centre developments; and
• the primary role of district and local centres is in the provision of locally
accessible convenience goods shopping and this will be retained and where
possible enhanced.
1
The criteria are set out in paragraphs 39 and 57 of PPS 5.
3
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
Study Approach
1.10 In carrying out this study we have had regard to existing regional strategy and policy
documents, in particular:
• The Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland 2025 Shopping Our
Future, which sets out a dynamic strategic planning framework for Northern
Ireland to guide physical development within the region until 2025 and
provides and overarching strategic framework for development plans;
• Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 5, Retailing and Town Centres, which sets
out the shopping policies of the DoE for the whole of Northern Ireland. It
provides a broad regional policy context for the site specific policies and
proposals contained in development plans and directly influence decisions on
individual planning applications.
and also the
• Northern Ireland Retail Research Study1 which is informing the DRD’s
Review of PPS 5.
1.11 We have also drawn on our wider expertise of retailing and experience gained in
undertaking health checks and retail need / capacity studies in many other parts of the
UK. Specifically, we have sought to combine experience in terms of:
• Retail Research Consultancy
• In and Out of Town Retail Agency and Development
• Planning
• Consumer / Market Research
As such the study seeks to blend detailed research with relevant commercial
expertise.
1
Prepared by Roger Tym & Partners for The Department for Regional Development, February 2003.
4
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
1.12 Although some data was available prior to the commencement of this study, it soon
became clear that a substantial body of new information was required in order to
satisfactorily meet the objectives of the study in a robust manner. This new data falls
into two broad categories as follows:
• we undertook four different types of survey:
- a telephone survey of 1,500 households living throughout Craigavon
District and its shopping hinterland;
- a questionnaire survey of 750 shoppers within Craigavon, Lurgan
and Portadown town centres;
- a questionnaire survey of the managers / owners of 110 retail shops
within the same three town centres; and
- pedestrian flow counts at a series of points throughout each of the
three centres.
• We have incorporated the very latest and most accurate statistics available in
respect of the following:
- retail floorspace of existing centres and shops throughout Craigavon
District1;
- consumer retail expenditure per head for small areas within
Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland2;
- 2001 Census-based populations by ward and projections of
population by District; and
1
This data has been prepared by The DoE Planning Service.
2
This data is derived from Experian Business Strategies.
5
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
- major recent retail developments and retail floorspace in the
pipeline within Craigavon District1 (eg. retail planning approvals and
schemes pending).
1.13 In practice, much of the survey data is used to inform our ‘health checks’ of the three
Craigavon District town centres, whilst the technical statistics feed mainly into our
quantitative assessment of retail need. It is important to note, for the avoidance of
doubt, that this study adopts as a starting point the fact that Craigavon, Lurgan and
Portadown are all classified as “town centres” in a planning context. Indeed, the
Commissioner’s Report of the Public Inquiry into the Craigavon Area Plan 2010
states that:
• “the Plan should clearly identify the future role and function of each of the
three town centres which make up the Craigavon Urban Area”. (Paragraphs
4.04.20 (1) ), (our underlining).
1.14 Running parallel with the survey work and the derivation and analysis of statistics,
we have also undertaken a wide range of consultations with relevant individuals and
organisations within Craigavon District. The list of consultees includes:
• Craigavon District Council officers
• Lurgan Forward
• Portadown 2000
• Lurgan Chamber of Trade
• Portadown Chamber of Commerce
• Lurgan and Portadown Town Centre Managers
1.15 We gratefully acknowledge the co-operation of all organisations and individuals who
have assisted in the preparation of this study. However, whilst we have had regard to
the views expressed, this report reflects our own conclusions.
1
This information has been provided by The DoE, Planning Service.
6
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
Structure of the Report
1.16 Our report is in two volumes. Volume 1 (this volume) comprises the Consultants
Report and specifically addresses our Terms of Reference. It also contains the
Appendices, which include the results of all the surveys we have undertaken,
supporting maps and photographs, and technical details relating to the statistics which
we have used. Volume 2 comprises our detailed quantitative retail floorspace need
tabulations (spreadsheets) with separate series addressing convenience goods and
comparison goods.
1.17 In terms of this volume (the main report), Section 2 describes the economic context to
the study, the planning policy framework and the retail hierarchy within Northern
Ireland. In addition we report on the main findings of our consultations with
individuals and organisations and identify the key issues for the future of retailing
within Craigavon District.
1.18 In Section 3, we consider the present shopping hierarchy of Craigavon District and,
drawing on the results of our household telephone survey, examine the current pattern
of shopper behaviour for the main types of retail goods. Using this information we
quantify the retail trading performance of Craigavon District as a whole and each of
the three town centres.
1.19 Section 4 contains our vitality and viability assessments of Craigavon, Lurgan and
Portadown town centres (the ‘health checks’). Each centre is addressed individually
using the indicators listed at paragraph 18 of PPS 5. Data derived from our shopper
and retailer surveys and pedestrian flow counts play an important role here. The
section ends with an overview of the qualitative need for new retail development in
each town.
1.20 In Section 5, we describe our approach to assessing the quantitative need for
additional retail floorspace within Craigavon District. The sources of data are
identified, the methodology of the ‘model’ is described and our key assumptions are
explained.
7
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
1.21 In Section 6 we look to the future and quantify the scope (or capacity) for additional
convenience goods and comparison goods retail floorspace within Craigavon District
and its three towns. This quantitative need assessment is carried out for the forecast
years 2010 and 2015.
1.22 In the light of our assessments of qualitative need (Section 4) and quantitative need
(Sections 5 and 6), in the final Section 7 we present our recommendations to The
Planning Service in respect of the need for additional retail floorspace provision
within Craigavon District through to 2010 (the end date of the Plan) and to 2015. Our
recommendations take into account, in broad terms, the existing planning pipeline of
retail commitments and proposals and the physical capacity of centres, and Craigavon
District as a whole, to accommodate the forecast retail floorspace requirements. In
this final section, and in the light of the results of the quantitative retail floorspace
need assessment, we also present our recommendations on primary retail frontage,
primary retail core and town centre boundary designations for Craigavon, Lurgan and
Portadown.
8
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
2. E
CONOMIC OVERVIEW AND POLICY FRAMEWORK
Regional Economic Context
2.1 Northern Ireland is a relatively small and compact region with a 2001 Census
population of 1,685,267, an increase of 107,431 from 1991. A radial pattern of main
roads and railways converge on the City of Belfast, the regional capital, which is
located at the heart of a metropolitan area of 646,550 people, 38% of the region’s
total. Craigavon District is located to the south west of Belfast and comprises of the
three towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown, which together with a small rural
hinterland, has a population of some 81,000.
2.2 Although a number of key economic indicators suggest that Northern Ireland is one
of the smallest and poorest regions of the UK, for example:
• the population of 1.7 million represents less than 3% of the UK total;
• Gross Domestic Product (GNP) per head is only 80% of the UK average
(2000 figure);
• average gross weekly earnings are just 88% of the UK average (2000 figure),
the lowest of any region;
the affluence of the region in fact increased rapidly during the 1990s and is beginning
to ‘catch up’ many other parts of the UK as demonstrated by:
• the numbers of employed having risen faster than in any other UK region;
• GDP per head having experienced the largest growth of any UK region; and
• unemployment having fallen the most of any region.
2.3 This recent ‘economic success’, underpinned at least in part by the Belfast Agreement
(1998), has fuelled an expansion in the region’s retail economy. Between 1998 and
2003, for example, an estimated 663,566 sq m gross of retail floorspace was granted
planning permission in Northern Ireland1, whilst this total will have risen even higher
during the past couple of years.
1
Northern Ireland Retail Research Study, Roger Tym & Partners, February 2003 (Table 4.3).
9
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
2.4 Looking ahead, economic indicators suggest that the economy of Northern Ireland is
likely to continue to grow (Table 2.1). GDP, for example, is forecast to increase by
14.1% over the next five years in line with the UK average, whilst growth in
employment and real consumers’ expenditure is forecast to outpace the national
average. In general the economic make-up of Northern Ireland is becoming
increasingly similar to other UK regions.
Table 2.1 Northern Ireland Forecasts 2005/10: Key Economic Indicators
Growth 2005 Index
Economic Indicator
to 2010 (UK Average = 100)
Real consumers expenditure +14.6% 107
Total employment +3.1% 124
GDP +14.1% 100
Real personal disposable income +13.4% 95
Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, Spring 2005.
Planning Policy Framework
2.5 Retail development in Northern Ireland has been guided since June 1996 by PPS 5,
the policies of which are outlined in broad terms in paragraph 1.9 of this report. More
recently, in September 2001, ‘The Regional Development Strategy: Shaping Our
Future’ (RDS) was adopted by the Northern Ireland Assembly and provides, for the
first time, a regional policy context for the preparation of Area Plans for sub-regional
and local areas.
2.6 The purpose of the RDS is to guide the future development of Northern Ireland to
2025. The vision is to create an outward-looking, dynamic and liveable region and to
sustain a high quality of life for all.
2.7 The pivotal component of the Strategy is the Spatial Development Strategy (SDS),
which is designed to reinforce and strengthen the hubs, corridors and gateways to
make the best use of key regional assets to accommodate the forecast economic
growth. The SDS seeks to give a strategic focus to future development and achieve
balanced growth within Northern Ireland.
10
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
2.8 This will involve the promotion of city and town centres “by ensuing that they should
normally be the first choice for major new retail developments and confirming that
there is no justifiable need for any new regional out of town shopping centres in
Northern Ireland.”
2.9 In short the SDS aims to achieve a balance of growth which will maintain a strong
economic heart in the wider Belfast “travel to work” hinterland, while encouraging
decentralised development at identified growth poles across the region. The SDS for
Northern Ireland is illustrated in Figure 2.1 overleaf.
2.10 The SDS defines the Craigavon urban area as a ‘main hub’ within a spatial
framework for rural Northern Ireland. ‘Main hubs’ should offer a diversity of uses
and be the “prime locations for retail, service, administrative, leisure and cultural
facilities both for urban and rural communities”. These locations therefore have a
strategic role to play in achieving regional balance across Northern Ireland. The SDS
specifically recognises the “high growth potential” of Craigavon, “reflecting its role
as the major industrial and service centre in mid-Ulster and its strategic location on
the key transport corridors”. Nevertheless, the SDS states that it is important “to
maintain a healthy and balanced interdependence of towns and their rural
hinterlands”.
Lurgan Development Framework1
2.11 The Lurgan Development Framework is one of a series of Development Frameworks
produced by Craigavon District Council. It has been prepared to assist in the overall
physical and economic regeneration of the central area of Lurgan. Although a non-
statutory document, the Development Framework has been prepared within the
strategic context of the Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland, the
Draft Craigavon Area Plan 2010 and also in accordance with the aims and objectives
of Planning Policy Statement No. 5 Retailing and Town Centres (currently under
review).
2.12 The main retail / economic objectives (or benefits) set out in the Development
Framework are as follows:
1
Lurgan Development Framework, Final Report, June 2004.
11
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
• to increase footfall in the town centre;
• to increase consumer and visitor expenditure in the town centre and to reduce
the “leakage” of expenditure to competing centres;
• to provide new and improved retail developments within the town centre and
thereby increase employment opportunities in the retail sector; and
• to develop a vibrant and vital evening economy.
2.13 The Development Framework identified 10 separate proposed development quarters
(or sub-areas) in central Lurgan, a number of which may be suitable for retail and
other town centre uses. Craigavon District Council believe that the “vision” set out in
the Development Framework may take a number of years to be realised and is likely
to only be achieved through the co-operation, co-ordination and partnership of a
range of organisations working with local landowners and private landlords.
Portadown Development Framework
2.14 The Portadown Development Framework has been prepared to assist with the
physical and economic regeneration of Portadown. It is the product of a study
commissioned by the Department for Social Development and has been prepared
within the context of the Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland 2005
and the Draft Craigavon Area Plan 2010.
2.15 The over-riding objective of the Development Framework is to regenerate Portadown
town centre through environmental improvements and to attract investment into the
town centre. Key guidelines which inform the Development Framework are as
follows:
• to respect the existing street framework and the historical development of the
town;
• to link the town centre to Edenderry and to the riverfront;
• to regenerate and enhance the riverfront;
• to create key inter-related quality landscaped public open spaces and to
enhance the status of Portadown Park by treating it as a valued part of the
town centre;
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Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
• to strengthen the town centre in order to increase its vitality and viability;
• to separate destination traffic from through traffic;
• to create development opportunity sites; and
• to provide a framework which will permit phased and co-ordinated
development of the town centre.
2.16 The Development Framework therefore seeks to attract new investment into
Portadown town centre, which along with environmental and infrastructure
improvements should achieve a measure of regeneration, although it is recognised
that any public sector funding must leverage in monies from the private sector.
Retail Hierarchy and Market Overview
2.17 The RDS sets out a settlement hierarchy, which is illustrated in Figure 2.2 overleaf.
This defines the BMA and Londonderry (the regional centre for the North West) as
major regional cities, below which there are a series of ‘main hubs’ such as Antrim,
Ballymena and Newry (identified as growth poles) and ‘local hubs’. In addition, PPS
5 identified Sprucefield as an out of town regional shopping centre, the only one in
Northern Ireland.
2.18 The Northern Ireland Retail Research Study produced a retail hierarchy based on a
combination of five key indicators of a centres’ role in the retail hierarchy:
• status in the RDS settlement hierarchy
• population
• Experian Goad Retail Rankings position
• scale of retail floorspace
• comparison goods market share.
2.19 This hierarchy (Table 2.2 overleaf) identifies Belfast as a ‘very large’ centre
followed by four ‘large’ centres, including Craigavon.
13
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
Table 2.2 Northern Ireland Retail Hierarchy
Size Category Centre
Very Large Belfast
Large Londonderry
Ballymena
Craigavon(1)
Lisburn
Medium Sprucefield
Armagh
Coleraine
Cookstown
Dungannon
Larne
Newry
Newtonards
Omagh
Strabane
Newtonabbey
Bangor
Small Antrim
Banbridge
Downpatrick
Enniskillen
Limavady
Ballycastle
Ballymoney
Magherafelt
Newcastle
Warrenpoint
Carrickfergus
Castlereagh
(1)
Note: Includes Craigavon, Portadown and Lurgan.
Source: The Northern Ireland Retail Research Study, February 2003.
14
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
2.20 Unfortunately this hierarchy combines the three town centres of Craigavon, Lurgan
and Portadown into a composite Craigavon ranking. In order to distinguish between
the three towns, we use a ranking published by The Javelin Group. This is shown in
Table 2.3 overleaf and is based on each centres Venuescore, which reflects the
presence and importance of the multiple retailers trading in each centre (or venue).
This system gives Portadown a rank of 10 within Northern Ireland (with a score of
75), although this equates to only the 289th ranked centre in the UK. Craigavon and
Lurgan are ranked 14th and 24th in Northern Ireland and, 425th and 761st in the UK
respectively.
2.21 In addition to the gradual development of the town centres, Northern Ireland has also
experienced a significant amount of out of centre retail development. This has taken
the form of:
• shopping centres
• retail warehouse parks
• stand alone food-based superstores
2.22 In the early days of shopping centre development the centres were anchored mainly
by food stores – initially indigenous companies, later the national multiples – but
more recently there has been a trend of such stores moving out into stand alone
locations, thus releasing space within the schemes for new comparison multiples and /
or variety store retailers. All of this, of course, has tended to strengthen the attraction
of out of centre retailing relative to that within the traditional town centres.
2.23 Since the Belfast Agreement in 1998 the level of interest from national multiple
comparison retailers for representation within the Northern Ireland market has
steadily grown. Arrivals include WH Smith, Next, JD Sports, River Island and Zara.
In general, the retail market is now in a relatively healthy state with demand
emanating from a much broader base representing all sectors of the retail market.
Occupational demand for prime retail property consisting either of enclosed shopping
centres, high streets or retail parks is reasonable with demand and supply being in
equilibrium. Retailers’ property requirements are selective and most have limited
capital expenditure budgets. There is no rush for floorspace and retailers are prepared
to wait for the right unit.
15
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
Table 2.3 Centres in Northern Ireland Ranked by VenueScore, 2005
Venue Rank
Centre
Score (N.Ireland)
Belfast 234 1
Londonderry 137 2
Lisburn 123 3
Ballymena 122 4
Newry 92 5
Coleraine 89 6
Bangor 84 7
Antrim 76 8
Newtownards 75 9
Portadown 75 10
Enniskillen 69 11
Newtownabbey, Abbeycentre 65 12
Glengormley 60 13
Craigavon 53 14
Bangor, Bloomfield Ret Park 46 15
Belfast, Connswater S C 44 16
Belfast, Forestside S C 43 17
Omagh 38 18
Armagh 34 19
Cookstown 34 20
Belfast, Cregagh 33 21
Larne 33 22
Magherafelt 32 23
Belfast, Boucher Ret Park 30 24
Lurgan 29 25
Belfast, Park Centre 28 26
Belfast, Windsor 28 27
Carrickfergus 28 28
Dungannon 28 29
Strabane 28 30
Banbridge 26 31
Ballymoney 24 32
Newry, The Quays 22 33
Belfast, Dunmurry 21 34
Lisburn, Sprucefield Ret Pk 20 35
Downpatrick 19 36
Ballyclare 18 37
Belfast, Ardoyne 18 38
Londonderry, Lisnagelvin Ret Pk 18 39
Belfast, Shankhill 17 40
Belfast, York Gate Ret Pk 16 41
Limavady 16 42
Belfast, Fort William 15 43
Belfast, Ormeau Road 15 44
Belfast, Falls 14 45
Belfast, Finaghy 14 46
Belfast, Strandtown 14 47
Belfast, Sydenham 14 48
Coleraine, Riverside Centre Ret Park 14 49
Belfast, Antrim Road 13 50
Belfast, Westwood S C 13 51
Dungannon, Coalisland 13 52
Londonderry, Altnagelvin 13 53
Newry, Dalmolly Ret Pk 13 54
Newry, Kilkeel 13 55
Belfast, Dundonald 12 56
Holywood 12 57
Londonderry, Waterside 12 58
Newcastle (Co Down) 11 59
Ballymena, Braidwater Ret Park 10 60
Belfast, Newtownbreda 10 61
Source: Venuescore 2005: UK Shopping Venue Rankings, Javelin Group, 2005.
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
2.24 In recent years there has been a significant transfer of the ownerships of shopping
centre and retail park assets from traditional fund and institutional investors into
private ownerships. The more entrepreneurial asset management methods adopted by
these private individuals has already resulted in a number of schemes throughout
Northern Ireland being more vigorously managed with extensions either planned or
implemented.
Consultations and Representations: Key Themes
2.25 In preparing this study we have held consultations with a wide range of individuals
and organisations within the Craigavon area (Appendix 3 provides a schedule of
consultees). In addition, through the publication of The Craigavon Town Centre
Boundaries and Retail Designations Plan 2010 (Bulletin) The Planning Service
invited public submissions, representations and objections.
2.26 A huge amount has therefore been written and spoken about the retail economies of
Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown and that of Craigavon District as a whole.
However, a number of reoccurring themes emerge from these consultations and
representations. The key points are as follows:
• there has been a perceived lack of retail investment in Craigavon District and
in the town centres of Lurgan and Portadown in particular;
• accordingly, there appears to be a lot of support for further retail development
within the District, although there is a range of opinions as to the best
locations / sites to accommodate this;
• it is generally regarded that the town centres of Lurgan and Portadown are in
need of regeneration;
• it is accepted that vital and viable town centres normally offer a diversity of
uses;
• there is some concern regarding the existing and future roles of the three
towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown;
16
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
• linked to the location of new retail investment is the definition of town centre
boundaries and retail designations for Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown.
2.27 In the remainder of this report, in responding to the requirements of the Operational
Specification, we present a huge body of new data and analysis which inform on each
of these key points.
17
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
3. S
UB-REGIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS AND RETAIL
TRADING PERFORMANCE
Introduction
3.1 The purpose of this section is to quantify shopper behaviour and to determine the
present (May 2005) retail trading performance of:
• Craigavon District as a whole;
• The three towns within Craigavon District (ie. Craigavon, Lurgan and
Portadown).
in relation to the two main broad categories of shopping:
• convenience goods; and
• comparison goods
3.2 The assessment draws mainly on the results of a household telephone survey which
we carried out during May 2005 within Craigavon District and its shopping
hinterland1. In addition, we refer to retail floorspace, population and consumer
expenditure data. The source of this information and how it is used in the
quantification of retail need is described in Section 5.
3.3 We begin this section by quantifying the size and trading performance of the
Craigavon District retail economy for convenience goods and comparison goods
shopping. In particular, we define for each category of goods:
• the ‘pool’ of available expenditure;
• the amount of out-flow expenditure (leakage);
• the proportion of retained expenditure;
• the amount of in-flow expenditure; and
• the total retail turnover of Craigavon District.
1
Full details of the household survey are given in Appendix 4.
18
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
3.4 We then undertake a more detailed analysis of shopper behaviour for Craigavon,
Lurgan and Portadown. For each town we define (and map) the catchment areas for
convenience goods and comparison goods. We also quantify (and map) the dominant
towns (and / or stores) across Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland for each
main goods category.
3.5 Lastly, we examine the main characteristics of shopper behaviour within the
household survey area.
Survey Methodology and Catchment Area Definition
3.6 In order to provide actual empirical evidence on shopping patterns within Craigavon
District and the role and function of its towns, we have used the results of a
household telephone survey. For this study we commissioned a survey of 1,500
resident households in an area that encompassed all of Craigavon District and its
shopping hinterland. Structured samples of households were drawn at random from
16 zones across the survey area. Appendix 4 describes the survey methodology and
provides a definition of our expenditure zones, summarises the main results and
contains a copy of the questionnaire.
3.7 The main objective of the household telephone survey was to obtain comprehensive
information on consumer shopping trip patterns and expenditure flows for
convenience goods (food) and comparison goods (non-food) shopping within the sub-
region. Our approach permits the following important assessments to be carried out:
• for any given town we are able to not only estimate its retail turnover, but
also identify where these sales originate from across the sub-region;
• for any given local area (or zone) we are able to not only estimate the amount
of available expenditure, but also identify the volume and source of in-flow
expenditure and the volume and destination of out flow expenditure.
19
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
3.8 Agreement on the survey methodology was reached with The Planning Service prior
to commencement of the fieldwork. It was agreed that the survey would concentrate
on households living within 16 zones, each defined in terms of wards. Seven of these
zones cover Craigavon District and the remaining nine zones cover its shopping
hinterland. These 16 zones are identified on the map in Figure 3.1 overleaf. The use
of zones enables the analysis of flows of retail expenditure throughout the sub-region
and permits the individual shopping catchments for different towns and broad
categories of goods to be defined.
3.9 For the Craigavon household survey, structured interviews were carried out, by
telephone, with the person responsible for the main shop in a total of 1,500
households to ascertain their actual shopping patterns and their views. The aim was to
achieve around 94 interviews in each zone, which is an acceptable sample size for
statistical purposes. Adopting what is standard practice, we opted for a consistent
absolute sample in each zone, rather than one proportional to zone population. This is
because the latter approach would have meant a significantly larger number of
interviews overall to ensure a minimum absolute number of interviews in the less
densely populated zones, which was not considered essential.
3.10 By adopting a consistent number of interviews within the zones irrespective of the
population size of each zone, we accordingly over-sample in some zones and under-
sample in others, while maintaining the same overall sample size. At the analysis
stage of the survey, the individual samples are then “weighted” to their appropriate
representation within the survey population to produce an overall result which is
representative of the survey area as a whole. Without the weighting, the less densely
populated zones would have a disproportionately large effect on the overall survey
results, contrary to their population size. The whole principle of weighting therefore
allows the characteristics of less densely populated zones to be accurately represented
without the unnecessary cost of a grossly inflated sample.
3.11 Within the survey area as a whole, we sought to determine the catchment areas of the
towns in Craigavon District using survey data on expenditure patterns. Our analysis
permits the core, primary, secondary and tertiary catchments (where they exist) to be
determined for each town. For the purpose of this study we have adopted the
following definitions:
20
Fig. 3.1 Household Survey Area
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
6 8
15 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon
3 M1
M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon 5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
10 11
12
Household Survey Zone 14
1) Maghery
2) Portadown
3) Bann Valley Monaghan
Monaghan
4) Craigavon
5) Lurgan
6) Magheralin
7) Waringstown
8) Lisburn West
9) Lisburn East Newry
Newry
10) Banbridge West
11) Banbridge East
12) Armagh East
13) Armagh North
14) Armagh West
15) Dungannon
16) Dungannon East
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
- core catchment: comprising those zones from which a town attracts the
majority of generated expenditure (ie. 51% or more);
- primary catchment: comprises those zones from which a town attracts the
largest single flow of generated expenditure (this may be less than 50%);
- secondary catchment: comprises those remaining zones from which a town
attracts 10% or more of generated expenditure;
- tertiary catchment: comprises all remaining zones from which a town
attracts 2% or more of generated expenditure.
3.12 Beyond the tertiary catchment, the full results show that certain towns may attract
even smaller amounts of expenditure from additional zones. Such expenditure flows
will typically account for very low proportions of overall centre turnover and can, for
most analytical purposes, be ignored. We have therefore excluded these zones from
our definition of a catchment area in this section, although such in-flows are taken
into account in the quantitative retail need assessment later in this report.
Assessment of the Craigavon District Retail Economy as a Whole
3.13 Using the results of the household survey we now consider the retail trading
characteristics of the Craigavon District retail economy. In particular, we are able to
determine the volume of consumer retail expenditure in-flows and out-flows to and
from Craigavon District. This analysis has been undertaken separately for comparison
goods and for convenience goods.
3.14 By relating the scale of these expenditure in-flows and out-flows to the known ‘pools’
of available expenditure generated within Craigavon District, we are able to estimate
the total retail turnover of the District for each of the main goods categories. In
addition, by expressing turnover as a proportion of available expenditure, the levels
of expenditure ‘retention’ can be estimated for Craigavon District.
21
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
3.15 In relation to comparison goods (Figure 3.2 overleaf), we estimate that Craigavon
District is currently attracting an in-flow of £95 million, but that some £37 million
leaks out to competitor centres in other areas. Therefore, the District is, as one may
expect, a net importer of £58 million of comparison goods spend annually. These
figures indicate that Craigavon District currently retains around 80% of available
comparison goods expenditure and has an estimated annual comparison goods
turnover of some £245 million.
3.16 The pattern of expenditure flows for convenience goods is summarised in Figure 3.3
overleaf. We estimate an in-flow of £35 million and an out-flow of £13 million,
which indicates Craigavon is a net importer of £22 million of convenience goods
spend annually. These figures confirm that Craigavon District currently retains 90%
of available convenience goods spend annually, a higher proportion than for
comparison goods. Our convenience retail turnover estimate for Craigavon District is
£152 million.
3.17 Combining the two goods categories indicates that Craigavon District has a total
retail turnover of £397 million, of which 62% is in comparison goods and the
remaining 38% in convenience goods. Figure 3.4 summarises the split between the
two categories of goods. Overall, 84% of the total retail expenditure generated by
Craigavon District residents is spent within the area, whilst 16% leaks out to
competitor centres.
Figure 3.4 Craigavon District Retail Turnover Disaggregated by Category of
Goods
38% Comparison Goods
Convenience Goods
62%
22
Fig 3.2
CRAIGAVON DISTRICT:
RETAIL TRADING CHARACTERISTICS: COMPARISON GOODS, 2005
CRAIGAVON DISTRICT
Available Expenditure £187m
£95m £37m
- Out-flow Expenditure £ 37m
= Retained Expenditure £150m
In-flow Out-flow
+ In-flow Expenditure £ 95m
= Retail Turnover
£245m
Fig 3.3
CRAIGAVON DISTRICT:
RETAIL TRADING CHARACTERISTICS: CONVENIENCE GOODS, 2005
CRAIGAVON DISTRICT
Available Expenditure £130m
£35m £13m
- Out-flow Expenditure £ 13m
= Retained Expenditure £117m
In-flow Out-flow
+ In-flow Expenditure £ 35m
= Retail Turnover
£152m
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
3.18 The household survey results in combination with population and expenditure per
head data, also enables the origin of in-flow retail expenditure into Craigavon District
to be quantified. Similarly, we are able to quantify the destination of retail
expenditure that leaks out of the District to competitor centres. This assessment has
been carried out for both comparison goods and convenience goods.
3.19 Figure 3.5 overleaf summarises the in-flow / out-flow analysis for comparison
goods. This chart shows that 92% of the comparison goods expenditure flowing into
Craigavon District comes from the four adjoining Districts. Of these the principal
‘source’ is Armagh District from which 43% of the monies originate (c. £40 million).
Banbridge and Dungannon Districts’ each contribute around £20 million (20%),
whilst only £4 million (4%) flows in from Lisburn District. The pattern is very
different, however, when the distribution of out-flow expenditure is analysed. Now
Armagh and Dungannon Districts’ barely feature, whilst Banbridge attracts only c. £5
million (13%). Lisburn District is the principal destination of monies leaking out of
Craigavon District, capturing 49% of the total (c. £18 million); clearly the City of
Lisburn and the Sprucefield Regional Shopping Centre are attractive to many
shoppers. In addition, 35% of the expenditure leakage from Craigavon District flows
to other areas, most notably Belfast District which attracts around c. £11.5 million
(32%). Of this total, £8.6 million is spent in Belfast City Centre, which equates to
almost a quarter of the total annual comparison goods leakage from Craigavon
District.
3.20 A similar in-flow / out-flow assessment for Craigavon District for convenience goods
shopping is set out in Figure 3.6 overleaf. In relation to expenditure flowing into
Craigavon District, almost two-thirds originates from Armagh District (c. £23
million). Around £7 million comes from Banbridge District (20%), whilst just £3
million originates from each of Dungannon and Lisburn Districts’. Our assessment
suggests there is no in-flow of expenditure into Craigavon District from beyond these
four areas. In terms of out-flow of convenience goods spend, as stated earlier, the
amount of leakage is low. Almost negligible sums flow out to Armagh and
Dungannon Districts’, whilst Lisburn District attracts £2 million annually (15% of the
total). The principal destinations are Banbridge District (c. £5 million), which
accounts for 35% of the entire out-flow, and all other areas (47%). Much of the
23
Fig 3.5 Origin of In-Flow Expenditure and Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure to / from
Craigavon District: Comparison Goods
Source of In-Flow Expenditure
Armagh District Banbridge District Dungannon District Lisburn District Other Areas
(£40.1m) (£21.0m) (£20.0m) (£4.3m) (£9.5m)
(42%) (22%) (21%) (5%) (10%)
Craigavon
District
Armagh District Banbridge District Dungannon District Lisburn District Other Areas
(£0.3m) (£4.9m) (£0.4m) (£18.0m) (£12.9m)
(1%) (13%) (1%) (49%) (36%)
Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure
Fig 3.6 Origin of In-Flow Expenditure and Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure to / from
Craigavon District: Convenience Goods
Source of In-Flow Expenditure
Armagh District Banbridge District Dungannon District Lisburn District Other Areas
(£22.5m) (£7.2m) (£2.9m) (£3.1m) (£0.0m)
(63%) (20%) (8%) (9%) (0%)
Craigavon
District
Armagh District Banbridge District Dungannon District Lisburn District Other Areas
(£0.4m) (£4.8m) (£0.0m) (£2.0m) (£6.3m)
(3%) (35%) (0%) (15%) (47%)
Destination of Out-Flow Expenditure
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
convenience good spend out-flow to the more distant centres is likely to be on the
back of comparison goods shopping and work related trips.
Town Catchment Areas
3.21 We now turn to defining the shopping catchment areas for each of the three towns in
Craigavon District, namely Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. Using the results of
the household survey (and the methodology set out at paragraph 3.11), we define
separate catchments for convenience goods and comparison goods shopping.
Comparison Goods Catchments
3.22 The extent of the catchment area of Craigavon for comparison goods shopping is
shown in Figure 3.7 overleaf. Overall the trade penetration of the town, which is
centred upon the Rushmere Shopping Centre, is lower than may have been expected.
The survey evidence indicates that its trade draw is relatively extensive
geographically (only zones 9 and 11 fall outside our catchment definition) but
comparatively shallow in terms of market share. The map confirms that Craigavon
has a core catchment comprising of just one zone (Zone 3) and a primary catchment
also of a single zone (Zone 6). Thus the town fails to attract the majority of available
spend from five of the seven zones which comprise Craigavon District. The town’s
secondary catchment covers Zones 1, 2, 3, 5 and 7 within Craigavon District and
Zones 10, 12, 13 and 15 beyond. Zones 8, 14 and 16 constitute Craigavon’s tertiary
catchment.
3.23 Lurgan is a smaller retail centre than Craigavon and this is reflected in its more
concentrated catchment area for comparison goods shopping (Figure 3.8 overleaf).
The town in fact is not sufficiently strong to generate a core catchment even locally
(zone 5), whilst the outer boundary of its catchment area doesn’t extend beyond
Craigavon District. In detail, Lurgan produces a primary catchment covering Zones 5
and 7, and a secondary catchment embracing Zones 3, 4 and 6. Its tertiary catchment
extends to the remaining two zones in Craigavon District (Zones 1 and 2).
3.24 The comparison goods shopping catchment area of Portadown is shown in Figure
3.9 overleaf. Of the three towns, Portadown’s trade penetration is strongest. For
24
Fig. 3.7 Definition of Craigavon Catchment Area: Comparison Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
15 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon 6
M1
M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Catchment Area Key
Monaghan
Monaghan
Core
Primary
Newry
Newry
Secondary
Tertiary
Outside
Fig. 3.8 Definition of Lurgan Catchment Area: Comparison Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
15 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon 6
M1
M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Catchment Area Key
Monaghan
Monaghan
Core
Primary
Newry
Newry
Secondary
Tertiary
Outside
Fig. 3.9 Definition of Portadown Catchment Area: Comparison Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
15 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon 6
M1
M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Catchment Area Key
Monaghan
Monaghan
Core
Primary
Newry
Newry
Secondary
Tertiary
Outside
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
example, it captures the majority of available spend in Zones 1 and 2, which therefore
forms its core catchment, whilst three adjoining zones (3, 12 and 13) comprise
Portadown’s primary catchment from where it attracts the majority of available
expenditure. A further two zones (10 and 15) fall within the town’s secondary
catchment and six more zones (4, 5, 6, 7, 14 and 16) constitute its tertiary catchment.
Overall, only three zones in our survey area fall outside Portadown’s catchment (8, 9
and 11), whilst the town appears quite successful in capturing trips from people living
to the west and south, well beyond the Craigavon District boundary.
Convenience Goods Catchments
3.25 The extent of the catchment area of Craigavon for convenience goods shopping is set
out in Figure 3.10 overleaf. Unlike for comparison goods, the town’s catchment is
almost entirely confined within Craigavon District with only Zones 12 and 15 outside
being categorised as tertiary catchment. Clearly the more localised nature of food
shopping trips combined with the wider choice of intervening opportunities has
limited Craigavon’s geographical reach. Inside Craigavon District, Craigavon
generates a single core catchment in Zone 6, from which it attracts a majority share of
available spend, whilst the remaining six zones all fall within its secondary catchment
area.
3.26 Lurgan is almost double the size of Craigavon in terms of its convenience goods
retail offer1 and this is reflected in the extent of its catchment area, which is shown in
Figure 3.11 overleaf. The town is strong enough to generate a core catchment in
Zone 6 and a primary catchment covering Zone 5. In addition, its secondary
catchment embraces Zones 4 and 7, whilst its tertiary catchment extends to Zone 8
outside of Craigavon District. The town’s food retail offer is not, however,
sufficiently attractive to draw in trade from Zones 1 to 3 which constitute the western
half of Craigavon District.
3.27 The convenience goods shopping catchment area for Portadown is shown in Figure
3.12 overleaf. The extent of the catchment reflects the quantum of available
convenience goods floorspace which is the largest of the three towns. Portadown
1
See Tables 4.1 and 4.3 in Section 4.
25
Fig. 3.10 Definition of Craigavon Catchment Area: Convenience Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
15 6 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon
M1 M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Catchment Area Key
Monaghan
Monaghan
Core
Primary
Newry
Newry
Secondary
Tertiary
Outside
Fig. 3.11 Definition of Lurgan Catchment Area: Convenience Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
15 6 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon
M1 M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Catchment Area Key
Monaghan
Monaghan
Core
Primary
Newry
Newry
Secondary
Tertiary
Outside
Fig. 3.12 Definition of Portadown Catchment Area: Convenience Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
15 6 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon
M1 M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Catchment Area Key
Monaghan
Monaghan
Core
Primary
Newry
Newry
Secondary
Tertiary
Outside
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
generates a core catchment across Zones 1 and 2, whilst its primary catchment covers
Zones 3 and 13, the latter outside of Craigavon District. Thus the town is attracting
the largest share of food spend from four zones. In addition, its secondary catchment
embraces another three zones (10, 12 and 14), and its tertiary catchment a further five
zones (4, 5, 7, 15 and 16). Indeed, only 3 zones within the survey area fall outside of
Portadown’s convenience goods catchment area.
Town Dominance
3.28 Towns or retail locations which capture the largest single share of available consumer
retail expenditure within a zone we describe as being dominant within that area.
Figures 3.13 and 3.14 show town dominance across our survey area for comparison
goods and convenience goods shopping respectively. The maps provide a good visual
indication of the relative strengths of towns across the sub-region for each category of
goods.
3.29 Eight towns have sufficiently strong comparison goods retail offers to dominate one
or more zones across our survey area (Figure 3.13 overleaf). Within Craigavon
District, Portadown dominates three zones, whilst Craigavon and Lurgan dominate
two zones each. In geographical terms, Portadown is the most dominant town
throughout the western half of the District, whilst Craigavon and Lurgan compete to
dominate the eastern half of Craigavon District. This suggests that Craigavon (The
Rushmere Shopping Centre) is more successful in capturing trade from Lurgan than
Portadown.
3.30 Neither Lurgan or Craigavon dominate any zones outside of Craigavon District,
whereas Portadown attracts sufficient trade from the south west to dominate Zones 12
and 13, which cover around half of Armagh District. Armagh dominates the third
zone in Armagh District (Zone 14), whilst Dungannon manages to dominate the two
zones which constitute its own District (Zones 15 and 16). Lisburn similarly
dominates its own District (Zones 8 and 9), whilst Banbridge District is split between
Banbridge (Zone 10) and Newry (Zone 11).
3.31 Figure 3.14 overleaf shows the dominance map for convenience goods shopping. It
confirms that just seven towns dominate all 16 zones; unlike for comparison goods
26
Fig. 3.13 Dominance Map: Comparison Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon 15 6
M1 M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Monaghan
Monaghan
Comparison Goods
Portadown Banbridge
Newry
Newry
Craigavon Newry
Lurgan Armagh
Lisburn Dungannon
Fig. 3.14 Dominance Map: Convenience Goods
M2
Belfast
Belfast
Lough Neagh
8
15 Lisburn
Lisburn
Dungannon
Dungannon 6
M1 M1 9
Lurgan
Lurgan
16 1 Craigavon
Craigavon
5
4
Portadown
Portadown
13 3 7
2
Armagh
Armagh Banbridge
Banbridge
11
12
10
14
Monaghan
Monaghan
Convenience Goods
Portadown Banbridge
Newry
Newry
Craigavon Armagh
Lurgan Dungannon
Lisburn
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
shopping Newry’s reach is more localised for food and therefore it doesn’t dominate
any of the zones.
3.32 Within Craigavon District, Portadown dominates Zones 1, 2 and 3, whilst Craigavon
is limited to just Zone 4. Lurgan dominates two zones (5 and 6), whilst Zone 7 is
dominated by Banbridge, a town located to the south of Craigavon District.
Banbridge also dominates Zones 10 and 11 and is therefore a strong centre for
convenience goods shopping. Lisburn dominates its own District (Zones 8 and 9) as
does Dungannon (Zones 15 and 16). Armagh manages to dominate two of the zones
covering its District (Zones 12 and 14), but Portadown’s influence extends beyond
the Craigavon District boundary sufficiently for it to dominate Zone 13.
Characteristics of Shopper Behaviour
Non-bulky Comparison Goods Shopping
3.33 Our Craigavon household telephone survey1 confirms that non-bulky comparison
goods shopping is undertaken relatively infrequently by survey area residents. On
average more than half of households undertake their main trips monthly or less
often.
3.34 For the survey as a whole, 53% of households choose their main centre because it is
convenient and close to home. This reason is the most important criteria in relation to
all three towns in Craigavon District. Around one-third of people, however, choose
Craigavon (The Rushmere Shopping Centre) as their main centre because it offers a
good choice of shops; although this criteria falls in importance for Portadown (18%)
and Lurgan (just 9%).
3.35 Around 83% of households within the survey area use a private car to undertake their
main non-bulky comparison goods shopping (68% as a driver and 15% as a
passenger). In comparison just 9% travel by bus, 6% walk and 1% use a taxi. Of the
towns’ in Craigavon District, Craigavon is most reliant on the car with 91% of trips
using this mode of transport, whilst Lurgan is least dependent (65%).
1
The text refers to the results of the household telephone survey undertaken as part of this study (the
Craigavon Household Survey). The survey area covers Zones 1 to 16 as shown in Figure 3.1.
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Bulky Comparison Goods Shopping
3.36 Around 90% of survey area households visit their main centre for bulky comparison
goods shopping monthly or less often. This compares to 56% for non-bulky
comparison goods, indicating that shopping for bulky items – as one may expect – is
undertaken less frequently.
3.37 As for non-bulky comparison goods shopping, convenience of location is the most
important reason for choosing which centre to visit. At 60% of households, the
proportion is a little higher than for non-bulky comparison goods shopping. A good
choice of goods / stores is again the second ranked criteria.
3.38 Overall, for our survey area, 92% of main trips for bulky comparison goods shopping
are undertaken by car, a higher proportion than for non-bulky comparison goods.
Most of the remaining journeys are made by bus.
Convenience Goods Shopping
3.39 Around 62% of convenience goods main shopping trips take place during the week
(Monday through to Friday) with 52% being carried out during the day and 10% in
the evenings. In comparison only 10% are undertaken at weekends, whilst 29% of
households vary their pattern of main food shopping.
3.40 The location of a store close to home is the main reason influencing the choice of
main food shopping destination in 60% of households. A wide choice of products
available is the second ranked reason, but this scored only 11%. Significantly free /
ease of parking is mentioned by just 4% of households. The importance of
convenience of location is reflected in the fact that 64% of main food shopping trip
journeys take (on average) 10 minutes or less, while the corresponding figures for
non-bulky and bulky comparison goods are around 40%.
3.41 The most common frequency of carrying out a main food shop is once a week (56%
of households), while an additional 35% undertake such trips even more frequently.
Shopping for convenience goods is therefore undertaken much more often than for
non-bulky or bulky comparison goods.
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3.42 Around 92% of survey area residents use a private car for their main food shopping
(20% as driver), whilst 6% travel by bus, 5% walk and 2% use a taxi.
3.43 On average, some 23% of households in our survey link their main food shopping trip
with another form of shopping. The food stores which generate the highest levels of
linked trips are those located within city / town centres, particularly those inside
covered shopping centres; for example, almost half of all food shoppers at the
Sainsbury’s in the Rushmere Centre carry out other forms of shopping on the same
trip, whilst the figure for out of centre stores drops to only 10% or less. The types of
shop / service visited most frequently on a linked trip are the chemist (in 41% of
cases), the post office (34%), fashion shops (32%) and financial outlets (31%).
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4. VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF TOWN CENTRES
The Role and Requirements of PPS 5
4.1 PPS 5 has been prepared by the Department of the Environment for Northern
Ireland:-
• “to formulate and co-ordinate policy for securing the orderly and consistent
development of land and the planning of that development.” (paragraph 1)
4.2 It sets out the Department’s policy for town centres and retail developments for all
of Northern Ireland. The principal policy objectives are as follows:-
• “to sustain and enhance the vitality and viability of town centres;
• to focus development, especially retail development, in locations where the
proximity of business facilitates competition from which all consumers are able
to benefit and maximises the opportunity to use means of transport other than
the car;
• to maintain an efficient, competitive and innovative retail sector; and
• to ensure the availability of a wide range of shops, employment services and
facilities to which people have easy access by a choice of means of transport.”
(paragraph 5)
4.3 PPS 5 states that the government:-
• “is committed to protecting the vitality and viability of existing town centres”
(paragraph 15)
whilst it is also recognised that smaller town centres may be particularly vulnerable to
the impact of out-of-centre retail development.
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4.4 An important requirement to ensure the appropriate effectiveness and
implementation of this policy guidance is that the vitality and viability of town
centres are assessed and PPS 5 states that this is best undertaken as part of the
preparation of development plans. PPS 5 (at paragraph 18) helpfully defines vitality
and viability as follows:-
• Vitality – is a measure of how busy a centre is
• Viability – is a measure of its capacity to attract ongoing investment for
maintenance, improvement and adaptation to changing needs.
Approach to Measuring Vitality and Viability
4.5 In practice, measuring the vitality and viability of a town centre involves not just
one indicator but a series of them. An assessment involving a combination of
indicators may be termed a “health check” and can provide a view of town centre
performance. PPS 5 sets out the indicators which should be used to carry out town
centre health checks in Northern Ireland. These are as follows:-
• accessibility: the ease and convenience of means of travel, including the
frequency, penetration and quality of public transport services, the quality,
quantity, location and type of car parking, and the quality of provision for people
with a mobility handicap, pedestrians and cyclists;
• customer views: surveys of customers’ views;
• diversity of uses: amount and location of floorspace for different uses and how
this is changing;
• environmental quality of the centre;
• pedestrian flow: the number and movement of people on the streets, in different
locations, at different times of the day or evening and over a period of time;
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• retailer profile: the existing composition, the retailer demand and other
potential changes;
• retailers’ views: surveys of the views of existing town centre retailers;
• shop rents: pattern of movement in that part of the town centre with the highest
rents; and
• vacancy rates: particularly the proportion of vacant street level floorspace in
primary shopping areas.
4.6 In this section, we present our “health checks” of all three town centres in
Craigavon Borough (ie. Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown). Centres are assessed
individually and for each we adopt a structure which follows the list of indicators
recommended by PPS 5.
4.7 The health check assessments described below represent the culmination of a
number of distinct strands of work. In particular, we have:-
• visited each of the centres and directly observed their environments, retail offers
and trading dynamics;
• reviewed and assimilated, where relevant, existing published reports, plans and
data;
• incorporated a commercial / market view of retailer demand and associated
issues,
and, most importantly,
• undertaken a range of surveys to generate new information on the trading
characteristics and dynamics of each centre and the attitudes of (visiting)
consumers and (occupying) retailers.
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4.8 As well as the household telephone survey, which has already been described and
analysed in Section 3, we undertook three further types of survey to underpin the
health checks:-
• a survey of shoppers in each of the three town centres – 750 interviews were
successfully carried out. (Full details of the survey and results are given in
Appendix 5.)
• a survey of retailers in each of the three centres – completed questionnaires
were received from 110 shop owners / managers. (Full details of the survey and
results are given in Appendix 6).
• counts of pedestrian flows were undertaken at a range of points within each of
the three town centres. (Full details of the counts and results are given in
Appendix 7).
4.9 We now present our health checks for each town centre in turn. Photographs
illustrating many of the key characteristics of each town are reproduced at
Appendix 8. At the end of this section, we summarise the assessments and set out
what we consider to be the qualitative need for additional retail floorspace in each
town. However, it should be borne in mind that there is a material amount of retail
floorspace within Craigavon District that is located outside of the town centres; for
example, in the neighbourhood settlements within the towns of Craigavon, Lurgan
and Portadown, and also a number of other small rural settlements within the
District. The existing retail floorspace stock data provided by The Planning Service
(reproduced in Appendix 9A) is comprehensive and includes all these retail
location categories.
Craigavon Town Centre
Accessibility
4.10 Visitors to the Rushmere Shopping Centre use a range of different means of
transport to access it. The car is the primary mode of transport with 73% of
respondents using it to travel to the centre, of which 54% are drivers and 19%
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passengers. To accommodate these trips there are around 1,800 free car parking
spaces at the Rushmere Shopping Centre that are easily accessed from the M1.
Other important modes of transport are the bus (16%) and walking (7%).
4.11 Shoppers do not think that the car park facilities or traffic congestion levels are
areas that need improving. This contrasts with the view of the retailers who would
like to see an improvement in the car parking facilities at the centre. Availability of
parking is an important issue for 32% of the retailers, with 36% stating that they felt
the facilities had got worse in the last year. Traffic congestion is also highlighted by
the retailers as an area of growing concern, with 25% rating it as very poor and 44%
feeling that in the last year congestion has increased.
Customer Views1
4.12 Almost three-quarters of people visit the Rushmere Chopping Centre to shop, with a
further 15% visiting just to browse. Around 90% of visitors make the journey from
home, with 20% travelling over 15 miles to the centre. Two-thirds of people spend
between 30 minutes and 1 hour 30 minutes at the centre.
4.13 Buying conversion rates are high for nearly all kinds of comparison goods,
especially non-bulky items like clothing and footwear. The centre also manages to
retain a high level of purchases for leisure goods. This suggests the centre’s retail
offer meets the expectations of most shoppers. Nevertheless, of those surveyed only
47% said the centre was the main one they use for non-food shopping, with 10%
saying Lurgan and a further 10% Portadown. The remaining one-third of shoppers
mentioned a range of other centres including Belfast City Centre (7%). The spread
in response suggests that there is a considerable overlap in town centre shopping
catchments.
4.14 On average visitors’ expenditure per party per trip is £51, £12 more than the survey
mean of £39. Of this total 57% is spent on non-food items and of the remainder,
35% is spent on food to take home. The dominance of expenditure on food, and
particularly non-food items, is reflected in the popularity and perceived importance
1
Detailed results of the shopper survey for Craigavon town centre are set out in Appendix 5B.
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by shoppers of Debenhams and Tesco. The two stores were highlighted by 31% and
23% of respondents respectively, as being the most important shops at the centre.
4.15 The vast majority of shoppers feel that the Rushmere Shopping Centre’s retail offer,
market position and layout are all satisfactory. Looking ahead, 13% of respondents
said they would like to see a wider choice of shops in the centre, although a highly
significant 75% couldn’t think of anything they would like to see improved. Indeed,
78% of shoppers say they are happy with the centre as it is.
Diversity of Uses
4.16 Craigavon town as a whole has an estimated total retail floorspace (including retail
services uses and voids) of 49,605 sq m net, which makes it smaller than both
Lurgan (63,003 sq m net) and Portadown (89,559 sq m net).
4.17 Table 4.1 below disaggregates this retail floorspace within Craigavon by main types
of use. This confirms that 80% of the stock is devoted to comparison goods – the
highest of the three towns – with 58% taken-up by non-bulky goods. Only 4% of the
floorspace is occupied by retail services, only one-third of that in Portadown and
just 25% of the Lurgan total. This reflects the nature of the shopping provision in
Craigavon, being dominated by the Rushmere Shopping Centre.
Table 4.1 Retail Floorspace in Craigavon (as at May 2005)
Type of Use Floorspace (Sq M Net) Col. %
Convenience 10,934 22
Non-Bulky Comparison 28,615 58
Bulky Comparison 6,888 14
Retail Services 1,863 4
Vacant 1,305 3
Total 49,605 100
Source: The Planning Service, 2005
4.18 The allocation of retail floorspace in Craigavon town centre is analysed in Table 4.2
overleaf. This shows representation of the different use categories in terms of
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numbers of units and floorspace compared to the UK average. This again confirms
the significant under-representation of services. However, convenience and
comparison shopping is relatively close to the national average. Vacancy is very
high, but this is due to the timing of the Experian Goad survey; during the Autumn
of 2004 there were many units in the (then) new extension waiting to be occupied.
Table 4.2 Diversity of Uses: Craigavon Town Centre
Type of Use No. of Outlets Floorspace (Sq M Gross)
Index: UK Average = 100 Index: UK Average = 100
Convenience 56 98
Comparison 119 110
Service 16 8
Miscellaneous 126 10
Vacant 303 288
Source: Experian Goad, September 2004
4.19 The data in Table 4.2 is presented in Figure 4.1 overleaf. The map provides further
information on the diversity of uses within Craigavon town centre. The key points
are as follows:
• the principal areas for comparison goods retailing are in the middle and
southern sections of the mall, including the new extension which is anchored
by Debenhams;
• convenience goods shopping is concentrated upon the two major food
superstores of Sainsbury’s and Tesco; there are few other convenience goods
shops in the centre;
• service uses are very few in number and dispersed around the centre; they
generally occupy small units;
• voids are also minimal, similarly spread around the centre and generally
confined to small end of mall locations.
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Environmental Quality
4.20 The Rushmere Shopping Centre being an enclosed, actively managed centre, clearly
offers shoppers an attractive, high quality shopping environment. This is borne out
by our survey results. Moreover, retailers feel that the environmental quality of the
centre is improving with 40% of them regarding it as quite good or very good.
Pedestrian Flow
4.21 Pedestrian flow counts have been undertaken at eight locations throughout The
Rushmere Centre. The locations and a summary of the results are shown in Figure
4.2 overleaf. Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Appendix 7B.
4.22 The highest three day footfall is at 29-30 Market Lane (Count Point 3) with a two-
way flow of 34,110. This is by far the highest peak flow in any of the three town
centres, being 7,000 above that in Portadown. Flows are much higher within the
covered shopping centre (50% of peak or above) than in the external retail area
(30% of peak or less). Inside the centre flows are higher in the more established part
of the mall than in the new extension adjoining Debenhams. Saturday is by a
considerable margin the busiest day with total footfall 60% higher than a Friday and
83% above a Wednesday.
Retailer Profile
4.23 Of the three towns, Craigavon offers consumers the best range of multiple retailers
and also a sizeable Debenhams department store. Many traders find Craigavon (The
Rushmere Shopping Centre) an attractive option because of the generous size and
configuration of the shop units, the enclosed and secure nature of the mall and the
plentiful free car parking available to customers. Our surveys show that more than
80% of existing retailers rate the pitch of their shop and their standard of
accommodation as very good or good. In terms of any future retail demand within
Craigavon District we would expect Craigavon to feature strongly.
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Retailer Views1
4.24 Some 22% of shops responding to our survey are larger than 186 sq m (2,000 sq ft)
in size. This is the highest proportion of large units within the three town centres
and reflects the purpose built nature of The Rushmere Centre. The proportion of
retailers which have refurbished their premises is in line with the survey average,
whilst the percentage that have extended their store over the past 12 months is
higher. Only one-quarter have extended their product range, however, against
almost 40% from Lurgan and Portadown.
4.25 Relatively few retailers had experienced higher than anticipated staff turnover
during the previous 12 months or had to improve conditions of employment or
increase wages more than expected.
4.26 No retailers responding to our survey said they expected to cease trading over the
coming 12 months – the lowest proportion of the three town centres. However, very
few had plans to refurbish, extend salespace, increase their product range or employ
more staff.
4.27 The turnover performance of retailers in Craigavon town centre appears very
healthy. On average, sales rose by 16% during the previous 12 months, the biggest
percentage rise of the three town centres. Convenience and comparison retailers did
equally well. Profitability was not as good, although the average increase was still
9%. Significantly, it is stores occupying the larger units (186 sq m plus) that
perform best in Craigavon town centre. Retailers are also optimistic about the future
with 41% expecting their turnover to increase over the next 12 months with none
anticipating a fall in sales.
4.28 Existing retailers in Craigavon town centre are generally happy with the pitch of
their shop and standard of accommodation, whilst there is also a significant amount
of satisfaction with the town’s market position and layout. However, 43% of
respondents feel Craigavon is too compact and congested. Most retailers in the
centre consider the present numbers of vacant units and number of service uses are
acceptable.
1
Full results of the retailer survey for Craigavon town centre are set out in Appendix 6C
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4.29 The overall positive impression of Craigavon as a retail location is borne out by the
fact that 68% of retailers feel the town centre’s trading performance has improved
over the past five years, whilst just 4% believe it has worsened (the balance of 28%
think it is about the same). However, despite the positive trading environment,
retailers give Craigavon a negative score against seven of 13 performance indicators
(parking, rents and rates, traffic congestion, and entertainment and leisure facilities
perform worse) and a positive score against six. The quality and number of places to
eat and drink and entertainment / leisure facilities are considered to be improving, as
is the quality and range of goods, although many other indicators are deemed to be
getting worse.
4.30 Tesco, Debenhams and Sainsbury’s are singled out as the principal existing anchor
retailers in the town centre, whilst Next, Primark, and mens fashion and shoe shops
have been identified as those stores which most retailers would like to see
represented.
4.31 Looking to the future, the need to improve safety and reduce crime / vandalism is
the most important issue facing the town centre, while some 96% of retailers are
supportive of adding to the amount of available retail floorspace to enable new
retailers to locate in the centre.
Shop Rents
4.32 Prime rents in Craigavon town centre (the Rushmere Centre) are currently £753 per
sq m (May 2005). They have remained at this same level for the past 12 months,
whereas prime rents across Northern Ireland have risen, on average by 2.5%.
Therefore, the new extension to the Rushmere Centre in late 2004 hasn’t lifted
prime rental values to date; indeed the centre has under-performed against the
regional average.
4.33 Although coming on for double the prime rent of Lurgan and Portadown, values at
Craigavon remain well below those at a number of other major centres across
Northern Ireland; for example Ballymena and Coleraine (both £915 per sq m),
Lisburn (£969 per sq m) and Newry (£1023 per sq m).
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Vacancy Rates
4.34 Data from The Planning Service confirms that there is 1,305 sq m net of vacant
retail floorspace in Craigavon town as a whole (Table 4.1). This is by far the lowest
total of the three towns. Clearly, most of the new space in the new 2004 extension to
the Rushmere Centre has been taken up and only a handful of small units remain.
As shown in Figure 4.1, many of the voids are in secondary, end of mall locations.
Lurgan Town Centre
Accessibility
4.35 Although the car is the most popular mode of transport (58% of shoppers, including
21% as passengers), it is not as dominant as in Craigavon (73%) or Portadown
(78%). This may reflect the relative inaccessibility of the town centre for motorists;
it is connected to the M1 via Lough Road which gets extremely congested and
features a railway level crossing, which, we understand, is to become busier in the
future. Consequently, other modes of transport such as walking (19%) and the bus
(16%) are higher than the survey average (14% and 12% respectively). One
contributing factor could be inadequate parking facilities, since 19% of respondents
say they would like to see parking facilities improved in the town centre, whilst
11% feel parking is the single facility they would like to see improved. There are
currently around 830 free car spaces and 240 spaces that require payment in the
town centre. Retailers also consider that the availability of parking and traffic
congestion need improvement; 57% rate parking as poor, whilst 57% feel that traffic
congestion is very poor, with 40% thinking that it is getting worse.
Customer Views1
4.36 Around 60% of people visit Lurgan town centre primarily to shop (the lowest
proportion of the three towns) and 80% travel from home. One in 10 visit Lurgan
after shopping elsewhere. Some 21% shop for two hours or more, a proportion
similar to that of Portadown, but higher than Craigavon.
1
Detailed results of the shopper survey for Lurgan town centre are set out in Appendix 5B.
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4.37 Buying conversion rates for people who actually shop in the town centre are
reasonable, confirming that the available retail offer meets most shoppers needs.
However, only 9% of Lurgan’s shoppers choose the town centre as their main centre
for non-food shopping, whilst 65% nominate Craigavon. This suggests that Lurgan
shoppers have a realistic opinion of the town centre’s retail offer and tailor their
shopping behaviour accordingly; doing their top-up shopping in the town (30% of
shoppers visit daily or almost every day) and their higher order shopping at
Craigavon.
4.38 The average expenditure per party per trip in Lurgan town centre is only £27, the
lowest of the three town centres. Of this total less than £10 per trip is spent on food,
again indicating that much bulk food shopping is carried out elsewhere.
4.39 A vast majority of shoppers feel the quality of the town centre’s retail offer is fine,
whilst a small majority also consider the size of stores and layout are acceptable.
However, a significant minority feel that there are too many small shops (38%) and
the centre is too congested (37%). Looking ahead, a wider choice / variety of shops,
better quality shops and more / better car parking are the principal improvements
which shoppers would like to see.
Diversity of Uses
4.40 In total there is 63,002 sq m net of retail floorspace in Lurgan town as a whole,
which makes it 27% larger than Craigavon, but only 70% the size of Portadown. In
terms of convenience goods floorspace, Lurgan’s retail offer is double that of
Craigavon and almost as high as Portadown’s.
4.41 Table 4.3 overleaf disaggregates retail floorspace within Lurgan by main types of
use. This confirms that 42% of the stock is devoted to comparison goods, with 28%
taken up by non-bulky comparison goods. More than one-third of the floorspace is
occupied by convenience uses, whilst a substantial 15% is occupied by retail
services, the largest share of the three towns.
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Table 4.3 Retail Floorspace in Lurgan (as at May 2005)
Type of Use Floorspace (Sq M Net) Col. %
Convenience 21,528 34
Non-Bulky Comparison 17,661 28
Bulky Comparison 8,721 14
Retail Services 9,754 15
Vacant 5,338 8
Total 63,002 100
Source: The Planning Service, 2005
4.42 The allocation of retail floorspace in Lurgan town centre is analysed further in
Table 4.4. This sets out the representation of the different use categories in terms of
units and floorspace compared to the UK average. This confirms that (in terms of
floorspace) voids and miscellaneous uses are very over-represented, whilst
comparison goods retailing in under-represented.
Table 4.4 Diversity of Uses: Lurgan Town Centre
Type of Use No. of Outlets Floorspace (Sq M Gross)
(Index: UK Average=100) (Index: UK Average = 100)
Convenience 145 119
Comparison 78 81
Service 86 98
Miscellaneous 30 166
Vacant 215 176
Source: Experian Goad, September 2004
4.43 The data in Table 4.4 is presented in Figure 4.3 overleaf. The map provides further
information on the diversity of uses within Lurgan town centre. The main
observations are as follows:
• most of the principal comparison goods stores are located in Market Street,
particularly on the north side;
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• there are a relatively large number of small convenience goods shops
dispersed throughout the town centre, although the three main food stores are
all in Castle Lane;
• service uses are fairly numerous and located throughout the town centre;
however, particularly large concentrations occur in Church Place and North
Street;
• voids are similarly represented throughout the town centre, although
relatively few are located in the principal retail frontages of Market Street.
Environmental Quality
4.44 The survey has highlighted a measure of dissatisfaction with the appearance of
Lurgan town centre. Almost 60% of retailers rate the environment / appearance of
the centre as quite poor or very poor, compared to less than 5% at Craigavon or
Portadown. Moreover, a number of traders also consider that the environmental
quality has deteriorated during the last year.
Pedestrian Flow
4.45 Pedestrian flow counts have been carried out at eight locations within Lurgan town
centre. The locations and a summary of the results are shown in Figure 4.4 overleaf.
Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Appendix 7B.
4.46 The highest three day footfall is at 3 Market Street (Count Point 6) with a two-way
flow of 20,970. This is the lowest peak flow in the three towns. It should be noted
that Count Points 6, 7, and 8 encompass the full width of the street, whereas Count
Points 1-5 are only half-widths. Flows are relatively healthy along Market Street
between Church Place and its junction with Union Street, but tail off considerably
beyond this. Wednesday has a higher footfall than Saturday. This suggests that on
the main shopping day, consumers go elsewhere (mainly to Craigavon).
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Retailer Profile
4.47 Lurgan town as a whole comprises a relatively large total of retail floorspace, yet
the retail core of the town centre is geographically concentrated with few multiple
retailers present. In particular, there is a shortage of fashion traders which
constitutes the main draw for many successful town centres. The small size and
configuration of many units is a handicap, whilst the considerable width of the main
street does little to concentrate retail activity and vitality. Looking ahead, we do not
envisage a big demand from multiple retailers for representation in Lurgan.
Retailer Views1
4.48 According to our survey, two-thirds of retailers in Lurgan town centre are
independents, whilst more than half have been established for six years or more.
Around 26% of retailers had refurbished their shops during the previous 12 months
(in line with Craigavon and Portadown) although just 3% had extended (the lowest
of the three towns). About one-third had improved their product range, similar to the
other towns. For the coming year, 23% expect to increase their product range, whilst
9% and 14% intend to refurbish their shop and employ more staff respectively.
Some 14% of stores responding to our survey said they intended to close down
within the next year.
4.49 On average, retailers in Lurgan achieved a sales decline of 13% over the past 12
months (similar to Portadown), with independents and those occupying the smaller
units doing the worst. In comparison, retailer profitability over the same period fell
by an average of 10%, once again similar to Portadown. Looking forwards, retailers
in Lurgan town centre remain relatively upbeat, with 29% expecting their turnover
to rise with just 19% anticipating a fall.
4.50 Although existing retailers in Lurgan are generally happy with their standard of
shop accommodation and pitch, almost nine in 10 feel the market position of the
town centre is ‘too downmarket’, whilst 86% think there are not enough large
stores. Furthermore, 60% of retailers consider the town centre can get too
1
Full results of the retailer survey for Lurgan town centre are set out in Appendix 6C
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congested. In addition, 90% of retailers feel there are too many vacant units in the
town centre, although the number of service uses is more acceptable.
4.51 This general negative perception towards Lurgan as a retail location is borne out by
the fact that 72% of retailers feel the trading performance of the town centre has
declined over the past five years, whereas only 14% consider it has got stronger.
Moreover, retailers give Lurgan negative scores against 11 of 13 performance
indicators; only public transport services and the quality of goods achieve small
positive ratings. All indicators except safety / security and places to eat and drink
are felt to be getting worse.
4.52 Tesco, Woolworths and Heaton’s department store are singled out as the three key
anchor stores by retailers. Next, Primark, New Look, Peacocks, Topshop, River
Island and Dunnes Stores are identified as the stores retailers would most like to see
represented in the town centre.
4.53 Looking ahead, retailers consider the need for more multiples and the reduction of
traffic congestion are the most important issues facing the town. In support of this,
almost 90% of retailers are in favour of additional floorspace being provided in
Lurgan town centre.
Shop Rents
4.54 Prime rents in Lurgan town centre are presently £431 per sq m (May 2005) and have
remained at this level for the past year. In comparison, average prime rents across
Northern Ireland have risen by 2.5% over the last 12 months, suggesting some
under-performance in Lurgan.
4.55 Surprisingly however, given its much more limited retail offer, prime rents in
Lurgan are the same as those in the much larger Portadown town centre. Other
centres with similar rental values include Armagh and Downpatrick.
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Vacancy Rates
4.56 The Planning Service floorspace data confirms that there is currently 5,338 sq m net
of vacant floorspace in Lurgan town as a whole (see Table 4.4). This is about three
times the vacancy level of Craigavon, but only about half of the Portadown total.
Our surveys indicate that the number of voids is too high and should be reduced.
Portadown Town Centre
Accessibility
4.57 Portadown attracts a high level of car use; 78% of shoppers arrive by this mode of
transport including 23% as car passengers, whilst 16% of shoppers walk to the town
centre. To facilitate the high levels of car usage there are 754 free spaces in the town
centre and 599 that carry a charge; more than 1300 in total. Nevertheless, the
availability of parking is an issue for retailers with many considering the existing
level of provision to be poor. Moreover, retailers and shoppers also express
dissatisfaction at the level of congestion in the town centre.
Customer Views1
4.58 Around three-quarters of people visit Portadown town centre primarily to shop (with
10% more browsing) and 83% travel from home to do so. A significant 51% shop
for one hour 30 minutes or more, the highest proportion of the three towns. This
reflects the relatively extensive retail offer available.
4.59 Buying conversion rates are relatively high for most kinds of goods and services.
The relatively strong performance of Portadown is borne out by the fact that no less
than 59% of shoppers nominate the town as their main centre for non-food
shopping; the highest proportion for the three towns, including Craigavon (45%).
4.60 The average expenditure per party per trip in Portadown town centre is £37, of
which around half is spent on convenience goods. This pattern of spend is reflected
1
Detailed results of the shopper survey for Portadown town centre are set out in Appendix 5B.
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by the fact that Tesco and Dunnes Store are highlighted by shoppers as the most
important stores in the town centre.
4.61 Portadown’s mix of stores, market position and layout are generally well regarded
by shoppers, although 52% of shoppers said they would like to see a wider choice of
shops. Looking to the future, the need for more and better quality stores are the
facilities which are singled out by shoppers as being most important.
Diversity of Uses
4.62 Portadown town as a whole contains an estimated 89,559 sq m net of retail
floorspace (including retail services and voids) which easily makes it the largest of
the three towns in Craigavon District. It also has the most extensive convenience
goods retail offer (narrowly beating Lurgan’s), and in relation to bulky comparison
goods has 20% more floorspace than Lurgan and Craigavon combined. Only in
terms of non-bulky comparison goods floorspace does it rank second to Craigavon.
4.63 Table 4.5 disaggregates retail floorspace in Portadown by main types of use. This
confirms that 28% of the town’s stock is devoted to convenience goods, whilst less
than half of the total floorspace is taken-up by comparison goods, with only 27%
trading in non-bulky goods. Retail services occupy 12% of the floorspace stock,
much higher than at Craigavon but lower than Lurgan.
Table 4.5 Retail Floorspace in Portadown (as at May 2005)
Type of Use Floorspace (Sq M Net) Col. %
Convenience 24,754 28
Non-bulky Comparison 24,040 27
Bulky Comparison 18,740 21
Retail Services 10,456 12
Vacant 11,569 13
Total 89,559 100
Source: The Planning Service
4.64 The allocation of retail floorspace in the town centre is analysed in Table 4.6
overleaf. This provides details of the representation of the different use categories in
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terms of units and floorspace compared to the UK average. This confirms that
convenience goods shopping is slightly under-represented, whilst comparison goods
shopping is marginally over-represented. Representation of retail services is also
below average, whilst voids exceed the UK benchmark by a considerable margin.
Table 4.6 Diversity of Uses: Portadown Town Centre
Type of Use No. of Outlets Floorspace (Sq M Gross)
(Index: UK (Index: UK Average =
Average=100) 100)
Convenience 84 90
Comparison 102 107
Retail Services 70 69
Miscellaneous 49 24
Vacant 204 169
Source: Experian Goad, September 2004.
4.65 The data is Table 4.6 is presented in Figure 4.5 overleaf. The map provides further
information on the diversity of uses within Portadown town centre. The key points
are as follows:
• the principal areas for comparison goods retailing are along the frontages to
Market Street and High Street, and within the High Street Mall and Magowan
West Shopping Centres’;
• convenience goods shopping is concentrated upon the large Tesco superstore
at The Meadows Shopping Centre and a number of smaller units dispersed
throughout the rest of the town centre;
• service uses are mainly concentrated along the secondary frontages of the
town centre with relatively few located in the primary shopping areas;
• voids are relatively extensive but again are mainly found in the secondary
areas of the town centre; there are none along the primary shopping
frontages.
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Environmental Quality
4.66 The environmental quality of Portadown appears from our surveys to be satisfactory.
Few shoppers rate improvements to the environment as a key issue, whilst 46% of
retailers rate the environment / appearance of the town centre as very good or good,
compared to just 15% who rate it as quite poor or poor. Moreover, almost 90% of
traders consider the environmental quality of the town is staying the same or
improving.
Pedestrian Flow
4.67 Pedestrian flow counts have been carried out at eight locations within Portadown
town centre. The locations and a summary of the results are shown in Figure 4.6
overleaf. Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Appendix 7B.
4.68 The highest three day footfall is at 1 High Street Mall (Count Point 5) with a two-way
flow of 26,940. This is higher than the Lurgan equivalent total, but lower than that at
Craigavon. Flows are also healthy along the north side of Market Street, particularly
at Count Point 2, and actually exceed those along the north and south frontages to the
High Street. Pedestrian footfall does, however, tail off considerably along the
secondary frontages of Bridge Street, Castle Street and Church Street; in these areas
flows are only one-third of peak or lower. Pedestrian flows are relatively consistent
across the week, with Saturday being broadly on a par with a Friday, for example.
This suggests that the town centre does not lose shoppers on a Saturday (the main
shopping day) like Lurgan, but neither does it gain additional trips like Craigavon.
Retailer Profile
4.69 Portadown offers a reasonable number of multiple retailers. However, they are spread
throughout the town centre – at Magowan West, in the High Street Mall, along
Market and High Streets’ and in The Meadows Shopping Centre – rather than
concentrated in one area. This means the retail core of the town centre is fairly
extensive; much larger than that of Craigavon and Lurgan. Looking ahead, we do not
believe that Portadown is likely to prove as attractive a location for major retailers as
Craigavon, although it will feature much more strongly than Lurgan. In particular, the
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lack of a major department store at Portadown will act as a deterrent to the fashion
sector, especially those traders serving the mid to top end of the market.
Retailer Views1
4.70 A majority of the retailers responding to our survey were independents, occupiers of
small units (64% less than 93 sq m) and had been established in Portadown for a
relatively long time (43% for 10 years or more). Moreover, the proportion of retailers
which have refurbished their premises, and extended their store and product range
over the past 12 months is broadly in line with the survey average. In addition, few
traders have experienced higher than anticipated staff turnover during the previous
year or had to improve conditions of employment or increase wages more than
expected.
4.71 Just 2% of retailers responding to our survey indicated that they were likely to cease
trading within the coming 12 months – fewer than Lurgan, but higher than the 0% at
Craigavon. Compared to the survey average, more retailers in Portadown intend to
increase their product range, whilst fewer intend to employ more staff over the
coming year.
4.72 During the 12 months prior to the survey, convenience goods sales held up quite well,
whilst comparison goods turnover fell by 12%. This is likely to over-state the actual
position, since our household survey indicates that the comparison goods sector in the
town centre is trading satisfactorily. Looking ahead, slightly more retailers expected
their turnover to rise than fall, although 37% believed their sales would remain about
the same and 23% did not give a view.
4.73 Portadown scores fairly badly in relation to market position with a small majority of
retailers thinking the retail offer is too downmarket, whilst 41% believe the centre is
too congested. In terms of the trading mix, the view is split with roughly equal
numbers of retailers believing there are too many small shops (independents) as too
many large shops (multiples). The numbers of service businesses and vacant units are
also considered to be unacceptable; although virtually all retailers are satisfied with
1
Full results of the retailer survey for Portadown town centre are set out in Appendix 5C.
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the pitch of their shop and standard of accommodation, with many rating their units
as good or very good.
4.74 Retailers consider Tesco, Dunnes Stores and Next to be the principal anchors in the
town centre; Tesco is the only retailer to be named as a major anchor in all three town
centres confirming its important role in underpinning their retail economies. In terms
of future representation, stores such as Primark, New Look and Peacocks are what
retailers would most like to see.
4.75 In general, the retailer survey confirms that the retail economy of Portadown town
centre is treading water. Around one-third of respondents, for example, feel the
centre’s performance has strengthened during the past five years, whilst a similar
proportion believe it has got worse. The balance believe Portadown’s trading
performance has stayed “about the same”.
4.76 Looking ahead, retailers rate the need to provide better entertainment / leisure
facilities (especially in the evenings) as the most important issue, whilst there is also
strong support for increasing the range of multiple retailers and for reducing traffic
congestion. Around three-quarters of retailers (the lowest proportion of the three
towns) are also supportive of adding to the amount of retail floorspace in the town
centre to enable new retailers to locate in the centre.
Shop Rents
4.77 Prime rents in Portadown town centre are currently (May 2005) at £431 per sq m, the
same as 12 months ago. The town has therefore marginally under-performed the
Northern Ireland average, which rose by 2.5% during 2004/5. The present rental level
is also only on a par with Lurgan, which has a much smaller town centre.
4.78 Over the past five years, prime rents in Portadown have risen by 14%, from a level of
£377 per sq m in May 2001.
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Vacancy Rates
4.79 Data from The Planning Service confirms that there is 11,569 sq m net of vacant
retail floorspace in Portadown town as a whole. This is the highest total out of the
three towns, but is by no means excessive given the overall size of the centre. This is
born out by Table 4.5, which shows that just 12% of the town centre’s floorspace
stock is vacant, and this includes several relatively large units in The Meadows
Shopping Centre, which is undergoing some layout and structural changes. Moreover,
as noted earlier, many of the voids are located in secondary locations, well away from
the retail core. Clearly, a number of the vacant units may be unsuitable for today’s
modern multiple retailer seeking representation in Portadown town centre.
Health Check Summary and Qualitative Need
4.80 In this Section we have presented a comprehensive health check of the three towns
centres in Craigavon District. The assessment for each individual centre has involved
a consideration of the nine indicators listed in PPS 5. We have sought to summarise
the results of our health checks in Table 4.7, although acknowledge this is difficult to
do and relies to a large extent on judgement. Moreover, PPS 5 does not provide any
guidance as the ‘weight’ that should be attached to each of the indicators for
measuring performance. Accordingly, our approach has been to assume equal weights
and to give each town centre a score of 1 to 5 for each of the indicators. We have then
calculated an average score.
Table 4.7 Health Check Summary: Town Centres Ranked by Performance
Scores
Town Health Check Indicator and Score Average
Centre Accessibility Customer Diversity Environmental Pedestrian Retailer Retailer’s Shop Vacancy Score
Views of Use Quality Flow Profile Views Rents Rates
Craigavon 3 4 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 3.6
Lurgan 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 2.2
Portadown 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3.1
Key
Score
5 Very Positive
4 Fairly Positive
3 Neither Positive or Negative
2 Fairly Negative
1 Very Negative
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4.81 On the basis of the health check indicators and scores set out above, Craigavon is the
healthiest of the three town centres in Craigavon District. It achieves an average score
of 3.6, mid-way between average (neither positive or negative) and fairly positive. Its
lack of diversity of uses is a handicap; if this indicator was removed Craigavon’s
average score would increase to 3.9. Portadown scores 3.1 overall, close to the
average score. The town centre is a solid performer, scoring 3 or 4 points against all
of the indicators except rents (2 points) which in our view, are on the low side given
the size and retail function of the town. Lurgan is in the poorest retail health, gaining
an average score of just 2.2, close to fairly negative. It fails to score more than 3
points against any of the nine indicators, suggesting it lacks any real strengths, whilst
its retailer profile and accessibility are amongst its major shortcomings.
4.82 Overall, we are able to conclude that the two largest town centres within Craigavon
District are healthier than the smallest. This appears to confirm the suggestion in PPS
5 that smaller town centres are most vulnerable to the impact of out of centre retail
development (see paragraph 4.5).
4.83 Our conclusions in respect of each town centre and the qualitative need for new
retail development are as follows:
• Craigavon – Retailing provision in Craigavon is focused on The Rushmere
Shopping Centre. This was extended in 2004 and offers shoppers a modern,
large and purpose built shopping mall with plentiful adjoining free parking.
The retail offer includes two food superstores (Tesco and Sainsbury’s), a
Debenhams department store, many unit shops (including plenty of fashion
traders) and adjoining retail warehouses, which offer a good range of bulky
comparison goods. We do not therefore consider there is a material
qualitative need for additional retail floorspace at Craigavon.
• Lurgan – Lurgan town contains a surprisingly large quantum of retail
floorspace, although not all of this is located within the town centre. Even so,
the town centre covers a large area and is extremely elongated. Given that
there are few multiple traders in Lurgan, this means that many of the retail
frontages in the town centre are secondary and attract low levels of pedestrian
foot fall. Clearly there is a qualitative need for more non-bulky comparison
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goods multiple traders, particularly in the important fashion sector, which
tends to anchor most high streets. In addition, there is a qualitative need for a
major food superstore in the town centre, since the present food supermarkets
are generally small and located in sub-standard accommodation. However,
we understand that Tesco is shortly to commence the construction of a
superstore on a site adjoining the new town by-pass, which should link
through into the High Street.
• Portadown – Portadown town centre covers a relatively large footprint and
consists of three purpose-built shopping centres – High Street Mall, The
Meadows and Magowan West – and many traditional street frontages. There
is an adequate range of multiple traders present, including an extremely large
Tesco superstore anchoring The Meadows. Accordingly, there is no material
qualitative need for additional retail provision, although the town could
perhaps aspire to a department store and a larger fashion sector, particularly
more mid and top-market stores.
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5. Q
UANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: METHODOLOGY,
DATA SOURCES AND ASSUMPTIONS
Objectives
5.1 A major objective of this study is to estimate the quantitative need for additional
retail floorspace within Craigavon District through to 2010, the end date of the Local
Plan and also to 2015. The quantitative assessment has been undertaken for each of
the two main categories of retailing – convenience goods and comparison goods, and
for each of the three towns; Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. The assessment has
been undertaken within the context of the RDS1 and PPS 52.
5.2 Although the assessment is necessarily detailed and relatively complex, we have at all
stages sought to achieve transparency in our calculations. We have followed a
traditional approach to estimating retail need and have incorporated the very latest
data on consumer expenditure, retail floorspace and population as well as carrying out
a new household telephone survey. This should ensure that our assessment is up to
date, comprehensive and robust.
5.3 Section 6 of this report describes the quantitative need analysis that we have carried
out and presents the results. In this Section we introduce the need methodology,
summarise the role of the household telephone survey and (for convenience) set out
in one place the main assumptions and definitions which we have used, and our
principal sources of data.
Quantitative Need Methodology
5.4 The need for additional retail floorspace within an area (or town) is dependent on the
future relationship between the demand for and supply of space, ideally after taking
into account the extent (if any) of any over / under trading that is occurring at the
present time. The demand for floorspace is then determined by assessing the likely
growth in the volume of consumer retail expenditure, while an assessment of
floorspace supply involves quantifying the extent to which proposed changes in the
1
The Regional Development Strategy ‘Shaping Our Future’.
2
Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 5, Retailing and Town Centres.
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location, quality and quantity of retail floorspace will meet the forecast increases in
expenditure. Any monetary shortfall of supply relative to demand in the future
indicates there is a need for more floorspace in quantitative terms. The scale of
additional retail provision is then determined by converting the excess consumer
expenditure (or headroom expenditure) into a retail floorspace need total. In practice,
because shopping patterns are complex and vary for different types of goods, the
methodology utilises survey data to predict existing shopping patterns and examines
the extent to which this should change in future. This is a judgement decision based
upon planning considerations.
5.5 In practice, commercial considerations are also important in estimating the need for
more floorspace; if a quantitative assessment identifies that there is scope for more
space, but the market is too weak to let it, then clearly any proposed expansion may
need to be reconsidered. Alternatively, there may be instances when market demand
for providing additional retail floorspace exceeds the retail need indicated by the
quantitative need assessment.
5.6 Our methodology for estimating quantitative need is presented diagrammatically in
Figure 5.1 overleaf. An important ‘working’ assumption is that we assume that the
existing (base year) market share of available consumer retail expenditure taken-up
by Craigavon District as a whole, is held constant throughout the forecast period to
2015. This assumption relates to each of the two broad categories of goods:
convenience goods and comparison goods. This important assumption has been
agreed with The Planning Service and reflects in broad terms strategic planning
objectives as set out in the RDS. Our quantitative floorspace need estimates for
Craigavon District as a whole therefore reflects this constant market shares approach.
The quantitative need methodology is set out in full in Volume 2 Appendix 1A. The
key steps are described below.
Step 1 Catchment Area Definition
5.7 The catchment area should be defined with regard to the study objective. For the
present study it includes all of Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland.
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Step 2 Analyse Consumer Demand
5.8 This will comprise population estimates of retail expenditure per head for the present
and projected forecast year(s). This should include resident population, but also any
in-flow retail expenditure from people living outside the catchment area. The main
types of inflow expenditure come from long distance shoppers, commuters and
tourists.
Step 3 Analyse Retail Supply
5.9 This step comprises an assessment of the retail turnover of the existing retail
floorspace stock. This will involve a household telephone survey to estimate the
actual retail turnover of centres and stores and a comparison with benchmark
turnover.
Step 4 Retail Demand Vs Retail Supply in the Base Year
5.10 At this stage, the adequacy of the existing retail provision within Craigavon District
in quantitative terms is assessed. For example, if actual turnovers assessed in Step 3
exceed the benchmark turnovers, it could be argued that the floorspace is over-trading
and, therefore, there may be an existing need for additional retail floorspace.
Alternatively, if actual turnovers are less than benchmark levels then the floorspace
may be assumed to be under-trading, signalling a potential over-supply of existing
retail floorspace.
Step 5 Changes in Retail Demand and Retail Supply through to Forecast Year(s)
5.11 This step projects forward total available expenditure in the catchment area and the
turnover of existing and committed retail floorspace and the forecast retail turnover
gives a measure of the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace. If there is an
expenditure surplus, this is converted into potential floorspace by dividing by an
appropriate sales density. Similarly, if there is an expenditure deficit, a floorspace
over supply may exist.
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The Household Telephone Survey
Objectives of the Survey
5.12 The household telephone survey forms an important component of the present study,
since it provides robust and up-to-date information on the current pattern of shopping
activity throughout Craigavon District and surrounding areas. As such, it forms the
base upon which the retail need estimates are built.
5.13 A major aim of the survey is to generate quantitative data on consumer retail
expenditure flows between areas or zones (where people live) and retail centres
(where people spend their money). This has been carried out for the following three
types of shopping1.
• Convenience goods
• Non-bulky comparison goods
• Bulky comparison goods
Definition of the Survey Area
5.14 We reached agreement with The Planning Service on the outer boundary of the
household survey area at the beginning of the study. The survey area is shown in
Figure 3.1 (following page 20). It is relatively extensive, since it has been drawn to
include the main shopping catchments of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown.
Definition of the Expenditure Zones
5.15 For the purpose of sampling and analysis the wider survey area has been divided into
16 zones. These zones are defined on the basis of ward boundaries and each zone
comprises of one or more wards. All of the zones were agreed with The Planning
Service. In broad terms they relate to natural shopping activity areas on the ground
and to the size and distribution of retail centres. There are relatively more zones
1
Although the main quantitative need assessment is undertaken for comparison goods as a whole, the
survey works much better in practice if respondents are asked about their shopping patterns in respect
of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods separately. The non-bulky and bulky comparison goods
results are then combined later on in the analysis.
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within Craigavon District than other Districts because Craigavon is the main
geographical focus of the study.
5.16 Figure 3.1 (following page 20) shows the locations and general configuration of the
zones throughout the survey area.
5.17 The allocation of zones by Council District is as follows:
Craigavon District – 7 Zones
Lisburn District – 2 Zones
Banbridge District – 2 Zones
Armagh District – 3 Zones
Dungannon District – 2 Zones
-----------------------------------------
Survey Area 16 Zones
Sampling
5.18 In consultation with The Planning Service an overall target sample of 1,500
completed interviews was agreed, sufficient to provide a coverage of 94 interviews
per zone. In practice, the actual number of completed interviews carried out was as
follows:
Craigavon District 658
Hinterland 846
-------
Total 1504
5.19 Within each of the 16 zones, the interview sample was drawn randomly and in
proportion to the distribution of population. This ensures the results of the survey
reflect for each zone the density of population on the ground. Appendix 4A provides
a much more detailed statistical synopsis of the sampling methodology and the degree
of confidence which can be attributed to the results for different geographical levels
of analysis.
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The Survey Questionnaire
5.20 The survey questionnaire was drafted in consultation with The Planning Service and
their agreement was obtained prior to the commencement of interviewing. A copy of
the questionnaire used for the household telephone survey is reproduced in Appendix
4C.
Implementation, Analysis and Results
5.21 Fieldwork for the household survey was carried out during May 2005. In so far as we
use the survey results to inform our assessment of retail need within Craigavon
District, the key data which the survey generates is the percentage market share (in
terms of expenditure) of the city, town and other centres within each of the 16 zones.
This is analysed separately for convenience goods and comparison goods shopping.
Using this quantitative information, it is possible to build-up a picture of existing
shopper behaviour within Craigavon District and the survey area as a whole. In
particular, the data allows the existing catchment areas and retail turnovers for
Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown to be determined. This information has already
been analysed and mapped in Section 3, while it also forms the foundation for the
retail floorspace need estimates, which are presented in full in Section 6.
Principal Data Sources
5.22 The quantitative retail need assessment which we present in Section 6 utilises five
major sources of data. Each is new to this study and therefore unavailable for earlier
retail studies undertaken within Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland. The
data sources are as follows:
• Data on shopping trip patterns and consumer retail expenditure flows
Source: A bespoke household telephone survey was undertaken,
which has been described at paragraphs 5.12 to 5.21
inclusive, with full details presented in Appendix 4.
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• Data on population and population projections
Source: Populations have been derived for each of the zones by using
Census-based ward population totals. Zone populations were
then projected forward to the forecast years of 2010 and 2015
by applying district-based population projections. Full details
of our population methodology are set out in Appendix 10F.
• Data on consumer retail expenditure per head
Source: Bespoke data on convenience goods and comparison goods
expenditure per head for 2003 has been obtained from EBS
for each zone. Full information is set out in Appendix 10A.
• Data on existing retail floorspace
Source: The Planning Service / Valuation Office undertook a
comprehensive survey of all retail floorspace within
Craigavon District as at January 2005. The floorspace stock
figures have been updated to May 2005 by Colliers CRE in
conjunction with The Planning Service. The survey identifies
net (sales) floorspace within each town for each of the
following categories of use:
- Convenience goods
- Non-bulky comparison goods
- Bulky comparison goods
- Retail services
- Vacant
The ‘town’ retail floorspace figures include retail provision
in the town centres and also shops that are located outside of
the town centres. Figure 5.2 overleaf, for example, shows
the locations of neighbourhood shopping facilities in the
towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. Elsewhere in
61
Fig. 5.2. Location of Town and Neighbourhood Shopping Facilities within Craigavon District
Derryadd
Lough Road Motorway Services
Lough Road Motorway Services
Lou
Lo
Lo
Lou
Kilwilke
Lou
L
Lu
Kilwilke
ugh
ugh
ug
ug
ugh
hR
hR
hR
Roa
Roa
M1
oa
oad
oad
oo
o
od
M1
d
d
d
Victoria Street
Victoria Street
Lurgan Town Centre
Ma Dollingstown
Drumlellum rke
tS ad
tre st Ro
Portadown Road/Quarry Business Park
Portadown Road/Quarry Business Park
et Belfa
M12 ad Banbridge/Gilford Road
Banbridge/Gilford Road
Ro
ke
La
Du
Craigavon Town Centre
ng
Tursogue
an
no
Tullygally Centre
Tullygally Centre
nR
oa
d
Legagory Centre
Legagory Centre
y
wa
rth
No
d Drumgor Centre
Drumgor Centre
oa
Scotch Street eR
evill
nd
Wa
Ma
rin
gst
Lisnisky -- Lurgan Road
Lisnisky Lurgan Road Moyraverty Centre
Moyraverty Centre
ow
Garvaghy Road/Ashgrove Road
Garvaghy Road/Ashgrove Road
nR
Waringstown
oad
ooad
add
d
Roa
oa
nR
nR
nnR
Garvaghy Road
Garvaghy Road
ggan
gan
gaa
urrrg
LLur
Lu
Lu
g
Coharra
The Deans Turn
Portadown Town Centre
Gilford Road
Gilford Road Bleary
Brownstown Road/Loughgall Road Wells Cross
Brownstown Road/Loughgall Road
Giiiiliill
Giililfllfo
G
G fo
G
Annagh
fforrrd
orrrd
od
Minnakesh
d Ro
dR
dR
dRo
Roa
oad
oad
ad
ad
d
d
d
Annagh Bridge/Tandragee Road
Annagh Bridge/Tandragee Road
Portadown Neighbourhood Shopping Facilities
Brownstown Road/Armagh Road
Brownstown Road/Armagh Road
Clare
d Craigavon Neighbourhood Shopping Facilities
oa
hR
mag
Ar Lurgan Neighbourhood Shopping Facilities
Ballynagarrick
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
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Craigavon District there are also a number of small rural
retail settlements.
Details of existing retail floorspace by town and the rest of
Craigavon District as at May 2005 are set out in Appendix 9.
• Data on retail commitments / proposals
Source: The Planning Service has prepared a detailed schedule of
retail schemes in the planning pipeline throughout Craigavon
District (full details are set out in Appendix 11). These have
been grouped into one of two categories as follows:
- those schemes with planning consent as at May 2005
– these are defined as ‘hard’ commitments;
- those schemes awaiting a planning decision as at
May 2005 – these are defined as ‘soft proposals’.
Interpretation and Definitions
5.23 In addition to the principal sources of data, there are a number of definitions which
we have adopted throughout the quantitative need assessment. These ensure
consistency and although many are referred to again in Section 6, we hope that by
grouping them together below this will assist the reader in understanding the
technical analysis which follows.
Study Centres
The Planning Service has requested that we assess the quantitative need for additional
retail floorspace for the following three towns within Craigavon District.
• Craigavon
• Lurgan
• Portadown
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Base Year
5.24 We adopt a base year of 2005. This is when the household telephone survey was
undertaken, and therefore the year in which we have town retail turnover estimates.
Forecast Year(s)
5.25 The Planning Service has agreed to 2010, which is the end date of the Local Plan, and
also 2015.
Price Base
5.26 All monetary figures in this report are given in constant 2003 prices, which is the
price base of the consumer retail expenditure per head data obtained from EBS.
Future Growth in Consumer Retail Expenditure Per Head
5.27 Future spending levels have an important bearing on the need for additional retail
floorspace. The assumptions used are therefore critical to the validity of the overall
quantitative need assessment and it is vital that the most up to date, realistic and
robust sources are used.
5.28 In this study, we adopt the latest available 2003-based Ultra Long Term Trend
(ULTT) expenditure projections published by EBS in August 2004. These are set out
in full at Appendix 10C and incorporate the move by the ONS in 2003 to an annual
chain linking approach to producing constant price economic aggregates. Our
rationale for adopting the EBS ULTT expenditure projections for both convenience
goods and comparison goods are that they are close to the EBS expenditure forecasts
and, as a result, are unlikely to over-state the future growth in consumer retail
expenditure, which at the present time is running at a low rate of increase. Moreover,
the ULTT has been derived from actual expenditure growth in the UK between 1965
and 2003 and therefore incorporates economic cycles which are also likely to occur
between now and 2015.
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5.29 We therefore adopt the EBS ULTT expenditure projections which are set out in
Table 5.1.
Table 5.1: Expenditure Per Head Growth Forecasts
Goods Category Time Period
2003-2015
Convenience Goods 0.7% pa
Comparison Goods 4.3% pa
In-Flow Expenditure
5.30 We have estimated the volume of consumer retail expenditure flowing into our
survey area using information gained from similar studies carried out in Northern
Ireland and from our own expertise. In addition, we have considered the role and
retail offer available in Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown and the existing market
shares generated by these towns throughout the survey area. In-flow expenditure has
been estimated separately for convenience goods, non-bulky comparison goods and
bulky comparison goods for each town within Craigavon District. Full details of our
in-flow estimates are set out in Volume 2.
Special Forms of Trading and E-Commerce
5.31 It is normal practice in the preparation of quantitative retail need studies to make
deductions from the consumer retail expenditure per person figures adopted to allow
for expenditure by ‘special forms of trading’ (SFT). This is retail expenditure that
does not take place in shops such as that via mail order houses (including purchases
from wholly internet-based companies), door to door salesmen and stalls and markets.
EBS estimate that expenditure by SFT nationally accounts for 0.9% of consumer
retail expenditure on convenience goods and 6.4% on comparison goods. Full details
of EBS’s SFT percentages are set out in Appendix 10D.
5.32 According to EBS, and contrary to popular perceptions, there is little hard evidence to
date that SFT is increasing as a proportion of consumer retail expenditure. EBS state
that:
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• “the available ABI data for 1997 to 2001 shows no obvious trend in the
market share of non-store retailing. This may be because the ABI fails to
include the internet sales of companies that have store outlets as well as
internet sales. It may also be because the demise of traditional mail order
shopping is largely off-setting the internet boom”.
5.33 Accordingly, we have assumed that the proportion of consumer spending on SFT will
remain constant through to 2015 for each of the main goods categories. However, if
the actual growth in SFT as a proportion of retail expenditure increases between 2005
(our base year) and 2015 then our estimate of additional retail floorspace need within
Craigavon District may be too high.
Disaggregation of Available Consumer Retail Expenditure Between Non-Bulky
and Bulky Comparison Goods Spending
5.34 Initially, we undertake separate quantitative assessments for non-bulky and bulky
comparison goods (prior to combining the data), and therefore available consumer
retail expenditure on comparison goods must be disaggregated between the two
categories. In this study, based on EBS expenditure data (see Appendix 10B), we
assume that the split between non-bulky and bulky comparison goods spending is
64% and 36% respectively. We apply these proportions to generate bespoke base year
(2005) non-bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure totals for each of the 16
zones within the survey area.
Turnover Allocation for Existing Retail Floorspace
5.35 It would, in our view, be wrong to assume that all of the increase in retail expenditure
within Craigavon District is available to support additional retail floorspace. This is
because it is appropriate that some of the forecast growth in expenditure should be
allocated to existing retailers because the evidence confirms that existing retail shops,
in fact, achieve real, and necessary, gains in sales productivities year on year.
Consequently, to avoid making such an allowance would lead to a “double-counting”
of available retail expenditure and thus an over-estimation of the need for additional
retail floorspace (ie. the consumer spend soaked-up by existing retail floorspace
would be used to justify the need for more retail floorspace).
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5.36 EBS have recently published a Retail Planner Briefing Note on estimating and
projecting sales densities (reproduced in full in Appendix 10E), which sets out the
new research undertaken on the subject and its relevance to need (retail capacity)
assessments. EBS conclude as follows:
• “The long-term (1975-2003) trend for comparison goods space is 2.5 per
cent, although … there may have been a recent increase in the trend. Given
the uncertainties … an assumption that sales densities are likely to increase
at somewhere in the range of 2.0 per cent (the ‘moderate’ assumption) to 2.5
per cent (the ‘historical’ trend) appears appropriate.
• “Similarly we would expect a slowdown in the observed 1.1 per cent per
annum increase in convenience sales densities between 1986 and 1999. This
is especially true if we consider only pure convenience floorspace rather than
the mix of convenience and comparison found in many supermarkets and
superstores. Nonetheless, we still expect future increases to be well above the
old URPI figure of 0.15 per cent – we suggest that 0.75 per cent might be
more suitable.”
(Retail Planner Briefing Note 2.2, April 2005, Pages 7 and 8).
5.37 EBS further advise that for towns (or areas) where there is a material over-trading at
the present time, it is likely that the potential for real gains in sales productivity in the
future will be less than the national averages as set out in paragraph 5.36. Similarly,
in towns (areas) where there is currently significant under-trading, there is likely to be
potential for gains in sales productivity in excess of the national average. However, if
the monetary effects of over-trading and under-trading in the base year are fully taken
into account in the quantitative need assessment – as is the case in this study – then it
brings the Craigavon District retail economy into a retail equilibrium position akin to
the national average scenario consistent with the EBS research on the growth in store
productivities. This link is important and has been recently established in discussions
we have had with EBS. Consequently, it is perfectly reasonable to apply the EBS
store productivity recommendations in this study. For comparison goods we adopt the
mid-point between 2.0% and 2.5%, the EBS moderate and historical assumptions
respectively.
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5.38 Taking into account all of this evidence, we adopt the following estimates for real
increases in floorspace efficiency from 2005 (our base year) through to 2015.
• Convenience goods 0.75% pa
• Comparison goods 2.25% pa
Forecast Sales Densities
5.39 Sales density measures the relative efficiency with which floorspace is used by
retailers to convert sales floorspace into retail turnover. Retailers selling high value
goods from a relatively small unit area generally achieve much higher sales densities
than retailers such as DIY or bulky furniture operators selling lower value products
from a large store.
5.40 We use forecast sales densities at two stages in our quantitative floorspace need
assessment:
• to estimate the turnover of retail commitments and retail proposals;
• to convert the available residual headroom expenditure at each of the forecast
years into a need (or requirement) for additional retail floorspace.
5.41 In considering what are the most important sales densities to use it is necessary to
bear in mind the following:
• that sales densities which relate to new retail stores or schemes which will
open in the future will generally be higher than those which apply to all of the
existing retail floorspace stock in a town in the base year (2005);
• that sales densities vary widely between goods categories, with those for
convenience goods being higher than those for comparison goods;
• that sales densities for convenience and comparison goods floorspace will
rise due to the real increases in floorspace efficiency that occur over time.
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5.42 It is therefore necessary to adopt a range of forecast sales densities in order to account
for the variability in retail performance between different goods categories and retail
formats. In selecting what we consider to be the most realistic forecast sales densities,
we have taken into account the location and characteristics of the Craigavon District
retail economy and the sales density figures used in previous retail studies carried out
for Central Government departments in Northern Ireland. Our forecast sales densities
are set out in Table 5.2.
Table 5.2 Assumed Forecast Sales Densities (£ psm)
Forecast Year
Goods Category Format
2010 20151
Non-Bulky Comparison Goods All Conventional Retail Stores 4,000 4,471
Factory Outlet Centres 3,500 3,912
Bulky Comparison Goods All Stores 1,500 1,677
Convenience Goods Superstores / Large food stores 7,500 7,786
1
The sales densities are higher in 2015 because they include real increases in store productivities between
2010 and 2015.
Net to Gross Ratios
5.43 In converting net (or sales) retail floorspace to gross retail floorspace (or vice versa),
we have used a series of net to gross ratios. These are as follows:
• Convenience goods 60:100
• Non-bulky comparison goods 65:100 Town Centres
90:100 Retail Warehouses
• Bulky comparison goods 65:100 Town Centres
90:100 Retail Warehouses
Metric Conversion
5.44 Where necessary, we have converted square feet into metres (and vice versa) using
the following formulae:
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1 sq m =10.764 sq ft
1 sq ft = 0.093 sq m
VAT
5.45 Expenditure and sales / turnover data used throughout the quantitative assessment
includes VAT.
General Point
5.46 It must be stressed that any quantitative need assessment undertaken over a long time-
period (eg. 2015 is 10 years away) is subject to a margin of error, since it is
necessarily based on a number of assumptions which are difficult to forecast
accurately. We therefore recommend that the retail floorspace need estimates,
particularly those relating to years towards the back end of the forecast period, should
be treated with some caution.
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6. Q
UANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: ASSESSMENT AND
RESULTS
Objectives
6.1 This section describes our approach to estimating the quantitative need (or capacity)
for additional retail floorspace within Craigavon District and the three constituent
towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. To meet the requirements of The
Planning Service, the quantitative assessment is carried out separately for
convenience goods and comparison goods and has been undertaken in respect of two
scenarios. Scenario 1 (the “benchmark” position) assumes that the three towns within
Craigavon District maintain their existing market shares of available spending in each
goods sector through to the forecast years of 2010 and 2015. Scenario 2 assumes
Craigavon maintains its existing retail turnover in the base year (2005)1 through to
2010 and 2015, with Lurgan and Portadown benefiting in proportion from the
redistribution of future turnover growth away from Craigavon. All monetary figures
are given in constant 2003 prices.
6.2 The assessment provides the following information:
• Estimates of total available retail expenditure within the shopping catchment
areas of the three towns at the base year of 2005 and the forecast years of
2010 and 2015 (these years having been agreed with The Planning Service);
• Estimates of the retail turnover likely to be ‘retained’ by the towns at each of
the forecast years;
• Estimates of “headroom” expenditure and therefore retail floorspace need
within the towns at the forecast years; and
• Quantitative retail floorspace need disaggregated into convenience goods and
comparison goods retail floorspace.
1
Subject to making an appropriate allowance for increasing store productivities over time.
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6.3 Our understanding is that the results of the need assessment will be used by The
Planning Service to inform the future retail policies and strategies for Craigavon
District. The results should also assist The Planning Service in responding to any
emerging retail proposals.
Approach
6.4 Our broad approach to estimating retail need comprises of seven main steps, which in
aggregate cover the three main stages of analysis:
(i) Forecasting consumer demand;
(ii) Forecasting retail supply; and
(iii) The conversion of (any) surplus retail expenditure into a retail floorspace
requirement.
6.5 We have sought to provide an analysis that is transparent and which, at the same time,
seeks to be robust. The assessment is also presented in a way that enables it to be
updated in the future as more up-to-date statistics become available and the emerging
pattern of shopping activity becomes more established.
6.6 We carry out separate quantitative retail need assessments for comparison goods and
convenience goods. Each is supported by a number of tables (spreadsheets) which are
reproduced in Volume 2, Appendix 1B. In addition, the assessment refers to a
number of key assumptions and technical adjustments which have already been
discussed in Section 5, and are reproduced as Appendices 10A to 10F.
6.7 In this study, although we estimate quantitative need for each of the towns within
Craigavon District, we recommend that The Planning Service places most emphasis
on the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace within the District as a whole,
since the area is small and the town catchments overlap considerably with each other.
6.8 We begin with an assessment of the retail floorspace need for comparison goods.
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Analysis: Comparison Goods
Step 1: Calculate Total Available Expenditure in the Survey Area
6.9 The household survey area is shown in Figure 3.1 (following page 20) and is defined
to encompass the shopping catchment areas of the three towns within Craigavon
District. Within this area the quantum of comparison goods retail expenditure
generated is derived by multiplying population by average annual expenditure per
head. This calculation is carried out for each of the 16 zones which comprise the
survey area.
6.10 Population estimates by zone and for the survey area as a whole are set out in
Volume 2, Table 1. In addition to estimates for 2005 (the base year), population
forecasts for 2010 and 2015 are also included. These population estimates are 2001
Census-based projections (see Appendix 10F).
6.11 Table 2 gives the average annual expenditure per person on comparison goods for
residents living in each of the 16 zones comprising our survey area. These figures
have been obtained from EBS. We have projected the per person expenditure
estimates forward to the forecast years of 2010 and 2015 by adopting EBS’s 2003-
based Ultra Long Term Trend expenditure growth projections.
6.12 At Table 3 we make deductions to the per person expenditure estimates to account
for retail expenditure which does not take place in the shops, such as that on mail
order shopping (including e-commerce companies), door to door salesmen and
market and road-side stalls. This form of expenditure is generally known as “special
forms of trading”.
6.13 In presenting expenditure forecasts through to 2015, we are aware that there are
currently a number of electronic shopping formats which, should they become widely
established, could reduce significantly the proportion of retail expenditure that is now
spent in conventional shops. We have reviewed the likely impact of these new forms
of shopping and concluded that it is premature at the present time to make material
changes. Therefore, we have maintained “special forms of trading” at the existing
percentages through to 2015, although we would stress that this assumption should be
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reviewed from time to time, since, were it to change significantly, it could have a
major impact on future levels of retail floorspace by reducing the need for additional
shopping provision.
6.14 Our estimates of total available consumer retail expenditure on comparison goods at
the base year (2005) are set out in Table 4. Forecasts are also given for the forecast
years of 2010 and 2015. The increases in available expenditure are due to:
• The forecast growth in catchment population;
• Real increases in consumer comparison goods expenditure per head.
6.15 Available expenditure on comparison goods within each zone at the base year of 2005
is disaggregated into spend on non-bulky and bulky comparison goods by applying
appropriate proportions reflecting expenditure by consumers on those detailed
product categories which constitute each broader goods category. This sub-division of
expenditure by zone is set out in Table 5. This disaggregation is necessary at this
stage in order to take into full account the results of the household telephone survey
of Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland.
Step 2: Application of “Market Shares” to Determine Amount of Retained
Expenditure
6.16 As a consequence of increases in the volume of consumer expenditure per head
running in tandem with population growth, we estimate that the “pool” of available
expenditure on comparison goods within the survey area will increase by some £471
million between the base year (2005) and the latest forecast year of 2015 (Table 4).
6.17 However, not all of this growth in consumer expenditure will be spent within
Craigavon District and is available to support new retail floorspace in the towns of
Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. This is because competitor centres to those within
Craigavon District also lay claim to the same growing “pool” of expenditure. This
requires us to quantify the “market shares” of the towns in Craigavon District.
6.18 Existing “market Shares” for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping have
been derived from the household telephone survey carried out by ourselves for The
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Planning Service as part of this study. The survey provides useful information on the
geographical extent of catchment areas and trade penetration around existing towns
by quantifying the pattern and volume of retail expenditure flows from each of our
defined zones (where people live and money is generated) to a range of centres and
out of centre stores (where people spend their money).
6.19 In addition, and of critical importance, our assessment also takes into account the
distribution and volume of locally available consumer expenditure (or spending
power) so as to ensure that our retail turnover estimates are balanced against
available retail consumer expenditure.
6.20 The base year (2005) patterns of “market shares” are set out in Tables 6A and 6B for
non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping respectively. These market shares
have been taken directly from our household telephone survey, although in a small
number of cases they have been adjusted marginally to account for under-estimation
of sales at some of the small settlements (see Figure 5.2) (these being just too small
in retail terms to have been represented accurately in the household telephone
survey). The “market shares” are then applied to the 2005 “pools” of available non-
bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure (as set out in Table 5). Tables 7A
and 7B give the monetary amounts of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods
expenditure flowing to Craigavon District (and its three towns) and principal
competing centres by zone. The addition of these expenditure totals for each of the 16
zones gives the total amount of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods spend
flowing to a town from the survey area. For towns within Craigavon District we make
allowances for in-flow expenditure from outside the survey area. The in-flow figures
are small because the survey area has been defined in order to capture the vast
majority of shopping trips to Craigavon District. The monetary in-flows for non-
bulky and bulky comparison goods are combined at Table 8 in order to provide
turnover estimates for the three towns for the comparison goods category as a whole.
Step 3: Determine Whether the Existing Retail Economy is Trading at Equilibrium
6.21 At this stage of the assessment we consider whether the existing comparison goods
retail economy of Craigavon District (and its towns) is broadly trading at equilibrium
or not. This is important because if the amount of consumer retail expenditure
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flowing to the District is high in relation to the stock of available retail floorspace and
this appears to be causing problems to retailers and / or shoppers, then the District’s
retail offer may be described as over-trading. Conversely, if the expenditure flows are
low relative to available retail floorspace, then this can result in under-trading of the
present retail offer.
6.22 If over-trading is occurring in an area (or town) then it is commonly assumed that the
turnover in excess of the equilibrium position is potentially available to support new
shopping provision. If this occurs, then this element of expenditure should be added
to the headroom expenditure which we later estimate from the future growth in the
retail economy. Conversely, if an area (or town) is under-trading at present, then it is
also logical to deduct the amount of turnover shortfall relative to the equilibrium
position from the defined headroom expenditures associated with the future growth in
the retail economy.
6.23 The problem with this kind of analysis is determining whether an area (or town) is
trading in equilibrium or not. There are two principal difficulties. First, retailers need
to achieve a certain trading level to be viable. However, this trading level varies
substantially for individual retailers and for the same retailers for different centres
across the country, reflecting differences in type of business, profit margins, site,
costs (eg. rents), size, financial structure and other factors. Without detailed financial
data on all individual traders in an area it is virtually impossible to determine what the
average equilibrium trading level is. The second major difficulty is that even if it can
be proven that an area is trading above its retail equilibrium position, this does not
automatically mean that problems associated with over-trading occur; these may
include retailer operating difficulties, in-store congestion, over-busy streets leading to
pedestrian safety and security problems, and congested car parks.
6.24 In estimating whether the Craigavon District retail economy (and its towns) is in
retail equilibrium at present in relation to comparison goods shopping, we have been
handicapped by the unavailability of sales floorspace and trading data on individual
shops in each town. Nevertheless, we have attempted to be as robust as possible,
since material conditions of over or under-trading in the base year do suggest there is
an under or over-supply of retail floorspace already. To assist we have gained a
reasonable idea of how Craigavon District and its towns are performing from the
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results of our retailers survey. This suggests that many of the shops in Craigavon
District are trading poorly with low sales densities and that increases are needed in
order for them to maintain store viability. On the basis of all the available evidence,
we conclude that Lurgan is trading well below retail equilibrium, whilst Portadown
and Craigavon appear to be trading just a little below their equilibrium positions. Our
benchmark (or retail equilibrium) comparison goods turnover estimates for the
existing towns within the Craigavon District are set out at Table 8.
6.25 For comparison goods shopping, the results of the household telephone survey
suggest that the retail floorspace in Craigavon District as a whole is currently under-
trading by around £22 million per year, indicating that the actual turnover is lower
than that required for retailers in the area to achieve “benchmark” sales levels. This
estimated expenditure ‘deficit’ is deducted from the forecast headroom expenditures
later on in the assessment.
6.26 At Table 9 the monetary figures for all comparison goods shopping are converted
back into market shares.
Step 4: Calculate Growth in Retained Expenditure through to the Forecast Years
6.27 Having determined the base year (2005) “market shares” and levels of retained
comparison goods expenditure within Craigavon District as a whole and its
constituent towns, we use the principle of market shares to calculate how much more
spending or trade the District (and its towns) could expect to attract in the future as a
result of the forecast growth in available catchment area expenditure.
6.28 Our quantitative need (retail capacity) assessment for comparison goods is based on
the principle that the retail economy of Craigavon District as a whole will maintain its
existing status (and level of attraction) relative to competing centres. This “constant
market share” approach has been agreed with The Planning Service. Under Scenario
1 we also maintain the existing market shares for the three towns within Craigavon
District (Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown). We do not therefore adjust the market
share information for the comparison goods sector (Table 10).
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6.29 For each of the forecast years we apply the same market shares to the increased
“pools” of available expenditure in each zone. The calculations for the forecast years
of 2010 and 2015 are set out in Tables 11 and 14 respectively. Due to the increase in
demand (as a result of population growth and rising consumer expenditure per head)
the assessment produces at 2010 higher retail turnover potentials for Craigavon
District and its constituent towns than in the base year (2005). Similarly, the turnover
potentials are even higher for the forecast year of 2015.
Step 5: Determine Level of Potential Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years
6.30 It would be wrong to assume that all of the increase in turnover potential within
Craigavon District (and its three towns) will be available by the forecast year(s) to
support additional comparison goods shopping. This is because some of the forecast
growth in expenditure must be allocated to existing retailers because the evidence
confirms that they increase their sales productivities in real terms over time.
6.31 In Table 12 the turnover allocation for existing retailers is deducted from the 2010
turnover potential for Craigavon District as whole and each town. This calculation
produces an estimate of residual turnover potential for each town and the District as a
whole. The base year (2005) turnovers are then subtracted from the 2010 residual
turnovers to determine the quantum of potential headroom expenditure available in
2010 in each town and for the whole District. Similar analyses are carried out in
relation to comparison goods for the forecast year of 2015 in Table 15.
Step 6: Determine Level of Residual Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years
6.32 Table 13 sets out our calculations to estimate the residual headroom expenditure for
Craigavon District ( and its constituent towns) at the forecast year of 2010 for
comparison goods floorspace. The same assessment is carried out for the forecast
year of 2015 in Table 16.
6.33 The first stage is to adjust the potential headroom expenditures calculated for 2010 by
taking into account the extent (if any) of any over or under-trading that is occurring at
each town and in Craigavon District as whole at the base year (2005). This is
necessary because the headroom expenditures set out so far assume that each town
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and Craigavon District as a whole are currently trading in retail equilibrium. We have
already commented upon the fact that this assumption may be viewed as unlikely.
However, as discussed above, it is, in practice, difficult to define and calculate the
equilibrium position for any town or area.
6.34 Nevertheless, despite the difficulties of determining the extent of any over or under-
trading within Craigavon District and its towns, we consider that including such
estimates makes our quantitative need assessment more reliable and robust than
ignoring them. We use the under-trading estimates determined at Table 8 to “adjust”
our headroom expenditure totals. In practice, if an area (or town) is estimated to be
under-trading at the present time, this will reduce the quantum of headroom
expenditure at the forecast year(s), since some of the growth in expenditure should be
set-aside to bring the existing retail stock up to a retail equilibrium trading position.
Table 13 sets out our calculation for making this adjustment to the 2010 headroom
expenditures for comparison goods. Table 16 repeats the calculation for the forecast
year of 2015.
6.35 At this stage, in order to convert the adjusted headroom expenditures into residual
headroom expenditures at the forecast years of 2010 and 2015, we make further (if
applicable) deductions to account for that quantum of retail expenditure which is
likely to be soaked up by retail floorspace commitments and proposals within
Craigavon District (commitments are retail developments already in the pipeline,
which are either under construction or have planning consent, whilst proposals are
submitted applications which have yet to be determined).
6.36 From information supplied to us by The Planning Service, we have produced a
schedule of the retail commitments and proposals within Craigavon District
disaggregated by centre / location and broad category of goods. This schedule is
reproduced in Appendix 11. The schedule also gives our estimates of the retail
turnover of each commitment – these are given for each of the forecast years.
Turnovers are given to the individual retail commitments and proposals and these are
deducted from the adjusted headroom expenditure totals for each town, as
appropriate. This calculation is set out in Tables 13 and 16 for the forecast years of
2010 and 2015 respectively.
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6.37 The residual headroom expenditure totals for Craigavon District as a whole and the
constituent towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown at the forecast years of 2010
and 2015 are summarised in Table 6.1 overleaf. Table 6.1A sets out the residual
expenditure totals for Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.1B gives the residual expenditure
totals for Scenario 2. We comment further on these results in Section 7.
6.38 In our view these residual headroom expenditure totals are important because they
provide an estimate of the amount of potential turnover which will be available to
Craigavon District as a whole and each of its constituent towns by 2010 and 2015. In
Section 7, we describe the last step of the assessment, which is to convert these
residual headroom expenditures into retail floorspace requirements. However, the
output of this last step is dependent on the application of average sales densities and
these, in practice, are likely to vary enormously depending on the type of
development that is proposed. For example, town centre stores comprising non-bulky
comparison goods shopping typically trade at much higher average sales densities
than retail warehouse style developments selling mainly bulky comparison goods. We
would therefore recommend that appropriate weight is attached to the residual
headroom expenditure totals, since these are not open to the same levels of
interpretation as are the retail floorspace requirements set out in Section 7.
Analysis: Convenience Goods
6.39 Our retail need assessment for convenience goods floorspace follows the same
approach as that for comparison goods. The detailed calculations underpinning the
analysis are reproduced in full in Volume 2, Appendix 1C, Tables 1 to 13 inclusive.
Step 1: Calculate Total Available Expenditure in the Catchment Area
6.40 At Tables 1 to 4 inclusive, the total available convenience goods expenditure by zone
is determined for the base year (2005) and the forecast years of 2010 and 2015. The
analysis incorporates EBS’s estimates of average annual spending per head on
convenience goods within each zone, together with their latest Ultra Long Term
Trend expenditure growth projections. We again exclude expenditure by “special
forms of trading”, although the EBS allowance is much less than for comparison
goods shopping.
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Table 6.1A Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Comparison Goods: Scenario 1
Forecast Year: 2010
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon 11.3 10.4 0.9 26.81 -25.9
Lurgan -11.6 20.1 -31.7 0.0 -31.7
Portadown 14.2 14.7 -0.5 10.72 -11.2
Other (Settlements) 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6
Craigavon District 15.5 45.2 -29.7 37.5 -67.2
Forecast Year: 2015
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon 31.6 11.7 19.9 29.93 -10.0
Lurgan -4.1 22.7 -26.8 0.0 -26.8
Portadown 36.6 16.3 20.3 12.04 8.3
Other (Settlements) 3.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 3.8
Craigavon District 67.9 50.7 17.2 41.9 -24.7
1
Excludes an estimated £7.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
2
Excludes an estimated £9.8 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
3
Excludes an estimated £7.9 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
4
Excludes an estimated £11.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
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Table 6.1B Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Comparison Goods: Scenario 2
Forecast Year: 2010
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon -3.3 10.4 -13.7 26.81 -40.5
Lurgan -8.1 20.1 -28.2 0.0 -28.2
Portadown 24.3 14.7 9.6 10.72 -1.1
Other (Settlements) 2.4 0.0 2.4 0.0 2.4
Craigavon District 15.3 45.2 -29.9 37.5 -67.4
Forecast Year: 2015
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon 13.0 11.7 1.3 29.93 -28.6
Lurgan 0.4 22.7 -22.3 0.0 -22.3
Portadown 49.5 16.3 33.2 12.04 21.2
Other (Settlements) 4.8 0.0 4.8 0.0 4.8
Craigavon District 67.6 50.7 16.9 41.9 -24.9
1
Excludes an estimated £7.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
2
Excludes an estimated £9.8 million of comparison goods turnover (2010 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
3
Excludes an estimated £7.9 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Northway site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
4
Excludes an estimated £11.0 million of comparison goods turnover (2015 total) within a superstore proposed for the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a retail
warehouse scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
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Step 2: Application of “Market Shares” to Determine Amount of Retained
Expenditure
6.41 Using the results of the household telephone survey we derive the base year (2005)
market shares for Craigavon District and its three constituent towns within each of the
16 zones1. This assessment is set out in Table 5. Applying the market shares to the
total “pools” of available expenditure within each zone in the base year (2005) (Table
6), gives the monetary flows of consumer spending from each of the 16 zones to
Craigavon District and its towns. Unlike for comparison goods we do not make any
allowance for in-flow expenditure into Craigavon District from people living outside
our survey area. This is because food shopping is undertaken more locally than that
for comparison goods and our survey area is sufficiently extensive to capture all such
trips to Craigavon District. The addition of the flows from each zone gives the total
estimated convenience goods turnover of Craigavon District as a whole and the three
towns at the base year of 2005.
Step 3: Determine Whether Existing Retail Economy is Trading at Equilibrium
6.42 For convenience goods shopping, we now replicate the analysis carried out earlier in
relation to comparison goods, and calculate the extent of any over or under-trading
within Craigavon District and the three towns at the base year (2005). In estimating
the equilibrium convenience goods retail turnover in the base year we have taken into
account the overall quantity, quality and location of the existing retail offer in each
town. Clearly without having detailed information on the allocation of convenience
goods floorspace our benchmark turnovers are based mainly on professional
judgement. If anything we believe we may have been too conservative and the actual
benchmarks could be higher than those assumed. If this were to be the case then the
levels of under-trading which we estimate would be even higher and the quantitative
need for additional convenience goods floorspace lower. Table 6 confirms that, on
our estimates, convenience goods floorspace in Craigavon District as a whole is
under-trading by around £47 million in the base year (2005)
1
This involves grouping together the expenditure flows to individual named food stores in order to
establish the overall market share of a town.
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Step 4: Calculate Growth in Retained Expenditure through to the Forecast Years
6.43 As for comparison goods, we adopt (under Scenario 1) constant market shares for
each town in Craigavon District. Table 7 therefore replicates the town market shares
in Table 6, which in turn have been derived from the household telephone survey.
We apply the same market shares to the higher pools of available expenditure within
Craigavon District and its three towns at each forecast year. These calculations are set
out in Tables 8 and 11 for the forecast years of 2010 and 2015 respectively.
Step 5: Determine Level of Potential Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years
6.44 At Tables 9 and 12 we determine the levels of potential headroom expenditure
within Craigavon District and its three constituent towns at the forecast years of 2010
and 2015 respectively. As for comparison goods, it is necessary to set aside a little of
the expenditure growth for existing retailers to account for their real gains in sales
productivity over time.
Step 6: Determine Level of Residual Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years
6.45 To convert the potential headroom expenditure figures into residual headroom
expenditure estimates, we first take into account any under-trading that currently
exists in Craigavon District and its constituent towns in the base year (2005). Where
such under-trading exists, some of the expenditure growth is set aside to bring the
existing retail offer up to a retail equilibrium trading position.
6.46 The adjusted headroom expenditure totals for Craigavon District as a whole and each
constituent town for the forecast years 2010 and 2015 are set out in Tables 10 and 13
respectively.
6.47 Lastly, we take into account any existing convenience goods retail commitments and
proposals within Craigavon District. These have been agreed with The Planning
Service and full details including turnover estimates are set out in Appendix 11. The
calculations to produce the residual headroom expenditure totals for the forecast years
of 2010 and 2015 are also set out in Tables 10 and 13 respectively.
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6.48 The residual headroom expenditure totals for convenience goods at the forecast years
of 2010 and 2015 are summarised in Table 6.2 overleaf. Table 6.2A summarises the
residual expenditure totals for Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.2B sets out the figures in
relation to Scenario 2.
Step 7: Estimate Capacity for Additional Retail Floorspace in the Forecast Years
6.49 In Section 7 we convert these adjusted residual headroom expenditures into retail
floorspace requirements (step 7) but, as with comparison goods, these floorspace
estimates are entirely dependent on the average sales density applied to the
floorspace. For this reason, we therefore recommend that appropriate weight is
attached to the forecast quantums of residual expenditure available at the forecast
years in relation to convenience goods.
Summary
6.50 The main purpose of this section has been to assess in quantitative terms the likely
retail expenditure capacity within Craigavon District and its three constituent towns
through to 2015. It must be stressed, however, that any quantitative analysis over
such a long time-period (10 years from the base year of 2005) may be subject to a
margin of error, particularly in the later years, since it is based on a number of
assumptions which are difficult to forecast accurately. In addition, there are three
further key assumptions which have a material bearing on the forecast levels of
residual headroom expenditure. These are as follows:
• Special forms of trading – we have assumed that EBS’s latest published
estimates for “special forms of trading” for convenience goods and
comparison goods shopping will continue through to 2015. There is
currently much speculation that electronic shopping is likely to increase
significantly in the future. If this was to occur at a rate in excess of the
general real increase in consumer retail spending then the proportion of
retail sales taking place in conventional retail shops would decline. If this
were to happen the projected levels of retail expenditure capacity (and
retail floorspace need) would be less than those forecast in this report.
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Table 6.2A Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Convenience Goods: Scenario 1
Forecast Year: 2010
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon 3.4 0.0 3.4 29.21 -25.8
Lurgan -37.8 5.9 -43.7 0.0 -43.7
Portadown -8.4 0.0 -8.4 1.82 -10.2
Other (Settlements) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Craigavon District -42.8 5.9 -48.7 31.0 -79.7
Forecast Year: 2015
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon 4.6 0.0 4.6 30.33 -25.7
Lurgan -36.9 6.2 -43.1 0.0 -43.1
Portadown -6.0 0.0 -6.0 1.84 -7.8
Other (Settlements) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Craigavon District -38.2 6.2 -44.4 32.1 -76.5
1
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £24.5m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre
which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
2
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £27.6m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a comparison goods
scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
3
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £25.4m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre
which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
4
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £28.6m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre
which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
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Table 6.2B Residual Headroom Expenditure within Craigavon District at 2010 and 2015: Convenience Goods: Scenario 2
Forecast Year:2010
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon 2.2 0.0 2.2 29.21 -27.0
Lurgan -37.4 5.9 -43.3 0.0 -43.3
Portadown -7.6 0.0 -7.6 1.82 -9.4
Other (Settlements) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Craigavon District -42.8 5.9 -48.7 31.0 -79.7
Forecast Year: 2015
Town Headroom Expenditure Expenditure Headroom Expenditure Headroom Expenditure
Before Commitments and Reduction for Expenditure After Reduction for After Commitments and
Proposals Commitments Commitments Proposals Proposals
(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)
Craigavon 2.2 0.0 2.2 30.33 -28.1
Lurgan -36.2 6.2 -42.4 0.0 -42.4
Portadown -4.3 0.0 -4.3 1.84 -6.1
Other (Settlements) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2
Craigavon District -38.0 6.2 -44.2 32.1 -76.4
1
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £24.5m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre
which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
2
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £27.6m (2010 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to a comparison goods
scheme which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
3
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £25.4m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Northway site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre
which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
4
Excludes forecast convenience goods turnover of £28.6m (2015 total) for a superstore proposed on the Edenderry site. We have given precedence to the factory outlet centre
which has a planning consent on this site (ie. is a retail commitment).
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• Over / Under Trading at the base year – our household survey results
(Section 3) and the conclusions of our town centre health checks (Section
4) indicate that Craigavon District as a whole is currently under-trading in
both comparison goods and convenience goods, and we have taken this into
account in our quantitative need assessment. We accept that it is difficult to
establish what the true retail equilibrium position is. However, we do not
feel it is appropriate to ignore an existing quantitative over or under supply
of retail floorspace. Clearly if we have over-estimated the amount of under-
trading, for example, the retail expenditure capacity estimates will be
higher than those set out above; conversely, if we have under-estimated the
amount of under-trading the capacity estimates will be lower.
• Constant Market Shares – assuming a constant market share for the retail
economy of Craigavon District as a whole through to 2015 is a sound
approach to take and is consistent with that adopted in many other studies.
This approach was agreed as being appropriate by The Planning Service.
However, if a strong planning case could be made for either increasing or
decreasing Craigavon District’s market share then this would lead to an
increase or decrease in the retail floorspace capacity (need) identified in
this study.
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7. STUDY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
7.1 In this final section, we address four main issues as follows:
• we present our conclusions on the quantitative need for additional
convenience goods and comparison goods retail floorspace in Craigavon
District as a whole and the three towns of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown;
• we also consider qualitative need issues within Craigavon District, such as
qualitative retail deficiency and the need for urban regeneration;
• given our conclusions on the vitality and viability of Craigavon, Lurgan and
Portadown town centres, and quantitative and qualitative retail need, we
define for each town, as appropriate, primary retail frontage designations,
primary core designations and town centre (boundary) designations and;
• lastly, we put forward a number of broad retail policy recommendations for
consideration by The Planning Service.
Retail Floorspace: Quantitative Need
Comparison Goods (See Tables 6.1A and 6.1B)
7.2 By the end of the Plan period in 2010 we estimate that there will be an additional
£15.5 million of expenditure available to support new comparison goods retail
floorspace in Craigavon District. However, existing retail commitments will soak up
an estimated £45.2 million of expenditure, resulting in an expenditure deficit in 2010
of c. £30.0 million. Adding in existing retail proposals (excluding those on sites
where there is an existing retail commitment) produces an expenditure deficit by
2010 of £67 million.
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7.3 By 2015, however, there will be an estimated additional £68 million of expenditure
available to support new comparison goods floorspace. This will be sufficient to
support known retail commitments within Craigavon District as a whole, although
there will be a large expenditure deficit in Lurgan. However, by 2015 there will still
be insufficient available expenditure to support existing retail commitments and
proposals (excluding those on sites where there is an existing retail commitment); in
fact, the estimated expenditure deficit in Craigavon District as a whole will be around
£25 million.
7.4 Table 6.1A sets out the full results under Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.1B gives the
results for Scenario 2. Scenario 2 increases the levels of future available expenditure
at Lurgan and Portadown and decreases that at Craigavon. However, the differences
between Scenarios 1 and 2 are modest when set against the considerable pipeline of
comparison goods retail commitments and proposals in Craigavon District.
Convenience Goods (See Tables 6.2A and 6.2B)
7.5 At the end of the Plan period in 2010, we estimate there will be an expenditure deficit
in convenience goods of £42.8 million within Craigavon District. This is mainly due
to the considerable over-supply of floorspace that already exists (see paragraphs 7.14
and 7.15 below). Including existing retail commitments will increase the deficit to
£48.7 million, whilst adding in proposals (excluding those on sites where there is an
existing retail commitment) will lift the forecast expenditure deficit in 2010 to some
£80 million.
7.6 Even by 2015, we estimate there will be an expenditure deficit of £38.2 million in
Craigavon District, before commitments and proposals are taken into account. With
commitments the expenditure shortfall will be £44.4 million, whilst adding in retail
proposals (excluding those on sites where there is an existing retail commitment) will
increase it to £77 million.
7.7 Table 6.2A summarises the results under Scenario 1, whilst Table 6.2B gives the
results for Scenario 2. However, the differences between the two scenarios are small
in comparison to the huge expenditure shortfalls which we forecast should existing
convenience goods retail floorspace commitments and proposals go-ahead.
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7.8 At this stage, we should highlight that two major retail proposals within Craigavon
District relate to sites on which there is an existing retail commitment (ie. a store /
scheme with planning consent). In our main quantitative analysis above, in each of
these two instances we have included the retail commitment and excluded the retail
proposal. However, in practice, it is possible that the retail commitments may not
proceed and that the proposals on the same sites may receive planning consent and
get developed instead. For this reason is useful to quantify the effect of these potential
changes to the development pipeline on the quantitative need for additional retail
floorspace in Craigavon District.
7.9 The two sites on which there is both a retail commitment and a retail proposal are as
follows:
• Land at Northway, Craigavon
- Commitment: 3,720 sq m gross of comparison goods (Factory Outlet
Centre)
- Proposal: 8,360 sq m gross superstore
• Land at Edenderry, Portadown
- Commitment: 10,219 sq m gross of retail warehouses
- Proposal: 10,219 sq m gross superstore
(Full details of these retail commitments and retail proposals are set out in Appendix
11).
7.10 Taking Northway first, if the superstore was developed instead of the comparison
goods scheme, then on our estimates this would lead to a small decrease in the deficit
of available comparison goods expenditure within Craigavon District in 2010 from -
£67.2 million to -£63.8 million (assuming no changes to the rest of the assessment).
Conversely, the shortfall of available headroom convenience goods expenditure in
2010 would grow significantly from -£79.7 million to -£104.2 million within the
District.
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7.11 In relation to Edenderry, if a superstore was developed in place of the retail
warehouses, then the deficit of available comparison goods expenditure in 2010
within Craigavon District would fall marginally from -£67.2 million to -£63.4 million
(again assuming no other changes). For convenience goods, however, the shortfall of
available headroom expenditure in 2010 would rise substantially from -£79.7 million
to -£107.3 million.
7.12 Therefore it is clear that should one or both of the superstore proposals ultimately
proceed instead of the existing consented comparison goods schemes, then the
principal effect will be to materially increase the shortfall in available convenience
goods expenditure capacity within Craigavon District at the end of the Plan period in
2010.
Why is there a Lack of Quantitative Need?
7.13 As set out above, there is no quantitative need through to the end of the Plan period in
2010 for any additional convenience goods or comparison good retail floorspace
within Craigavon District as a whole. This is due largely to the scale of the existing
pipeline of convenience goods and comparison goods retail commitments in the
District.
7.14 However, there are also a number of additional reasons for the lack of any
quantitative need. These may be summarised as follows:
• The quantitative need assessment has been carried out on the basis that
Craigavon District as a whole will retain its existing market shares of
available convenience goods and comparison goods expenditure through to
2010 and 2015. This assumption has been agreed with The Planning Service
and is consistent with strategic retail planning policy.
• This assumption appears realistic, however, because the household survey
confirms that 84% of locally generated retail expenditure is already retained
within Craigavon District; this leaves little scope for the level to be increased,
particularly given that the major regional centres of Belfast and Sprucefield
are located relatively close by, as is the city of Lisburn. Moreover, as
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indicated in Section 3, Craigavon District is already a major net importer of
both convenience goods and comparison goods expenditure; thus little or no
more monies can be sourced from other areas without impacting negatively
on the retail economies of town centres in adjoining Districts.
• Although population throughout the survey area is growing, it is not
increasing particularly quickly. As such it is not driving up expenditure as
much as in other parts of the region.
• Real increases in spend per head on convenience goods and comparison
goods in the UK are now tailing off after many years of rapid growth. Our
use of EBS’s Ultra Long Term Trend projection for comparison goods, for
example, in fact exceeds EBS’s expenditure forecast through to 2013 by
0.6% per annum; thus we may have over-estimated the growth in spend per
head.
• We have incorporated into our assessment realistic estimates of the real
growth that is occurring over time in the sales productivities of existing
convenience goods and comparison goods retail floorspace. This is
occasionally over-looked, but if it is ignored it would mean that some of the
future turnover generated by the existing retail floorspace stock is used to
justify the development of new retail floorspace. This is particularly
inappropriate if the existing floorspace is in-town and the new floorspace is
out of centre.
• There is already a large total of retail floorspace in Craigavon District relative
to its population and the quantum of available expenditure. This means that
average sales densities are below what we consider are retail equilibrium
levels, and thus under-trading appears to be widespread, particularly in the
convenience goods sector. Consequently, there is already more retail
floorspace than can be supported by the available expenditure at a sustainable
and viable level.
7.15 This last point is an especially important one and reference to the Belfast
Metropolitan Area (BMA) illustrates it well. At 2002, for example, the entire BMA
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(population c.650,000) had 214,179 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace
available1, only 3.7 times the 58,481 sq m in Craigavon District (population just
81,000). With an available convenience goods spend of £1,188 million, the
convenience goods floorspace stock in the BMA generated average sales of £5,547
per sq m net. This compares to just £2,594 per sq m net in Craigavon District, less
than half. Clearly, a large proportion of Craigavon District’s existing convenience
goods floorspace must be struggling to remain viable relative to the stock in the
BMA. It is for this reason that we make an allowance in our quantitative need
assessment to bring the current retail floorspace stock up to a fairly modest
equilibrium level.
7.16 A similar picture emerges in relation to comparison goods. At 2002 the BMA had a
retail floorspace stock of 431,700 sq m net generating a turnover of £1,266 million.
This translates to an average sales density of £2,933 per sq m. In Craigavon District
an existing stock of 112,226 sq m net produces a turnover of £245 million at an
average sales density of only £2,183 per sq m. Craigavon District’s comparison goods
floorspace as a whole is also therefore trading poorly, although not on the same scale
as for convenience goods.
7.17 On top of this, Craigavon District also has a substantial quantum of additional retail
floorspace in the development pipeline; some 26,548 sq m net of retail commitments
(2,296 sq m convenience goods and 24,252 sq m comparison goods) and 24,946 sq m
of retail proposals (11,183 sq m net convenience goods and 13,757 sq m net of
comparison goods). Clearly, there is unlikely to be a quantitative need for more than a
small proportion of this total pipeline during the Plan period to 2010.
7.18 Moreover, it is our view that there is only a limited retail (commercial) demand for
new floorspace in Craigavon District. Many major UK multiples seek representation
in only the higher order centres in Northern Ireland and it is questionable whether any
of the three towns meet their location criteria. The ranking of Craigavon, Lurgan and
Portadown in a UK context is illustrated in Table 7.1 overleaf. This shows that
Portadown is the highest ranked of the three towns, but still only achieves a UK-wide
ranking of 289th, alongside towns such as Trowbridge and Newtownards. Craigavon
1
All the BMA floorspace and turnover figures are contained in The BMAP Retail Sector Study,
prepared by Colliers CRE.
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Table 7.1 Position of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown in the UK Venuscore Ranking, 2005
Table 7.1A: Craigavon Table 7.1B Portadown Table 7.1C Lurgan
LOCATIO
CENTRE VENUESCORE UK RANK VENUE VENUESCORE UK RANK VENUE VENUESCORE RANK
N TYPE
Sale 55 411 Leigh 78 271 LeominsteCentre 30 732
Deal 55 411 Dover 77 278 Sidmouth Centre 30 732
Aberystwyth 54 421 Evesham 77 278 Alloa Centre 30 732
Urmston 54 421 Antrim 76 283 Chineham Centre 30 732
Wisbech 54 421 Glenrothes 76 283 Clitheroe Centre 30 732
Peterhead 54 421 Douglas (Iom) 76 283 Nailsea Centre 30 732
Sutton In Ashfield 53 425 Boscombe 76 283 Leigh ParkCentre 30 732
St Austell 53 425 Oswestry 76 283 Herne Bay Centre 30 732
Waltham Cross 53 425 Newtownards 75 289 Swadlinco Centre 29 761
Congleton 53 425 Trowbridge 75 289 Reigate Centre 29 761
Craigavon 53 425 Portadown 75 289 Lurgan Centre 29 761
Stroud 53 425 Brentwood 74 294 WednesbuCentre 29 761
Bicester 53 425 Boston 74 294 Westbury Centre 29 761
Paignton 53 425 Melton Mowbray 74 294 Brierley H Centre 29 761
Letchworth 52 435 Fleet 73 297 Chandlers Centre 29 761
Runcorn 52 435 Elgin 73 297 Droitwich Centre 29 761
Leek 52 435 Castleford 73 297 Heswall Centre 29 761
Grays 52 435 Cumbernauld 73 297 JohnstoneCentre 29 761
Market Harborough 52 435 Shirley 73 297 Chepstow Centre 29 761
Petersfield 52 435 Witney 72 303 Helston Centre 29 761
Barry 52 435 Bridgend 72 303 Bitterne Centre 29 761
Source: Venuescore 2005 UK Shopping Venue Rankings
Javelin Group, 2005
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
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is ranked 425th, comparable to town such as Stroud and Bicester, whilst Lurgan is way
down at 781st with the likes of Reigate and Chandlers Ford.
7.19 Of the three towns, we feel Craigavon is the most attractive to new retailers, because
of its Debenhams department store anchor and large modern unit footplates.
Portadown is also likely to need a department store to draw in many more multiples,
especially those in the fashion sector. However, to build a scheme featuring a
department store would require a relatively large number of unit shops to make it
financially viable and we don’t believe there is the demand for this, certainly during
the Plan period to 2010. Lurgan’s retail offer is currently too spread out to provide
sufficient critical mass to attract multiples. The town also trades in the shadow of
Craigavon, particularly for comparison goods.
7.20 Our quantitative assessment of need is therefore broadly consistent with our view of
retail demand, especially for comparison goods shopping. However, there are a
number of retail schemes in Craigavon District which have already been granted
planning consent (ie. the retail commitments), whilst a number of others may be
categorised as proposals. Where there is no quantitative need for additional retail
floorspace, should these schemes go ahead then they are likely to have the following
effects on shopper behaviour and the existing retail offer:
• they will likely divert future trade away from existing retailers in Craigavon
District; in practice, these diversions will, at first, eat into the real growth in
sales productivities that we have set aside for existing retailers, which, in
itself, may undermine the economic viability of a number of shops;
moreover, if the diversions are more substantial they are likely to result in
some existing retail floorspace in (probably) secondary areas of the three
towns falling out of productive use (this may be viewed as acceptable given
the locations and perceived benefits of the new retail investment – see
below);
• they will attract into Craigavon District more of the retail expenditure which
is generated in adjoining Districts; thus trade will be diverted from retailers
located in towns in surrounding areas.
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Wider Retail and Economic Considerations
7.21 A key objective of The Planning Service within the Plan period is to maintain and
enhance the vitality and viability of all three town centres within Craigavon District –
Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown. This, in broad terms, should lead to a continuation
of the present shopping hierarchy within the District, which is consistent with
strategic retail policy.
7.22 All three towns with Craigavon District are (unusually for Northern Ireland) located
in close proximity and have shopping catchment areas that largely overlap with one
another, as demonstrated by the assessment presented in Section 3. This means there
is, in practice, a strong element of competition amongst them in attracting new retail
investment, since for many major retailers a single large store in the District may be
sufficient for them to serve their local customer base. Over the past 5-10 years,
Craigavon town centre has been the most successful in attracting new retail
floorspace development, at the expense of Portadown and especially Lurgan.
7.23 Looking forward over the remainder of the Plan period to 2010, there are clearly
more pressing qualitative need and regeneration arguments for concentrating any
future retail investment in Lurgan and Portadown town centres. Our health check
assessments described in Section 4 confirm that these two town centres are in poorer
retail and economic health than Craigavon, and therefore have the most to gain from
new retail development. However, given Craigavon’s equal status as a town centre, a
strict new planning policy may need to be formulated to deter further new retail
investment at this location.
7.24 Despite the negative impacts that will be likely to result from the development of
additional retail floorspace within Craigavon District in excess of that for which there
is a quantitative need (see paragraph 7.20 above), we recognise that there are broader
(and perhaps) over-riding planning objectives to also consider. First there is a
qualitative need for retail of certain types and in certain locations, and this was
described at paragraph 4.83 in Section 4. In a little more detail, our position on
qualitative retail deficiency is as follows:
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• we believe Craigavon town centre does not exhibit any material signs of
deficiency;
• Portadown could benefit from a department store and further fashion
representation, but the town may find it difficult to support a viable scheme
in commercial terms;
• Lurgan clearly suffers from qualitative retail deficiency in comparison goods
and also lacks (currently) a modern, large food-based superstore, although
this need is likely to be met by a new Tesco development.
7.25 In relation to customer choice, there may be an argument in favour of a major new
food store operator being represented in Craigavon District, particularly if it is
accepted that the benefits of extending choice outweigh the likely disadvantages of
some existing convenience goods floorspace falling out of productive use. In such
circumstances, any new store should be located on a site which will generate the
greatest off-site spin-off benefits, particularly in so far as they may assist in town
centre regeneration. We believe that the Edenderry site in Portadown town centre (as
defined at paragraph 7.29 below) is likely to produce more regeneration benefits than
an out of centre site at Craigavon, for example. Moreover, we should point out that if
Tesco or Sainsbury were to develop a new large superstore on an out of centre site at
Craigavon, this could have two adverse effects:
• the retailer is likely to close its existing store within the Rushmere Shopping
Centre – the primary retail core – thus directly transferring convenience
goods floorspace from a town centre location (as defined at paragraph 7.29
below) to an out of centre one;
• the new store is likely to sell a significant quantum of comparison goods, in
direct competition to the retail offer available within the town centre.
7.26 We also accept that both Lurgan and Portadown town centres are in need of
regeneration and Lurgan Forward and Portadown 2000 have set out clearly how this
may be achieved (see paragraph 2.11 to 2.16 in Section 2). Our view is that retail can
play an important role in economic regeneration but it must be of a form, type and in
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a location that maximises any positive benefits and minimises any negative impacts.
Normally such schemes are located within town centres, and preferably within the
primary retail cores.
Retail Boundaries, Cores and Frontages
7.27 The Operational Specification requires us to make recommendations for the
Craigavon District Local Plan concerning the geographical definitions of:
• Town centre boundaries;
• Primary retail cores within town centres;
• Protected retail frontages within town centres.
7.28 The maps of each town showing our recommended town centre boundaries, cores and
frontages are reproduced in Figures 7.1 to 7.3 overleaf. We have defined the
boundaries on the basis of a set of criteria which are as follows:
Criteria for Defining Town Centre Boundaries
• should include sufficient sites to meet the quantitative need for additional
retail floorspace within the Plan period;
• should include sufficient sites to accommodate any new retail development
that is deemed to be required to meet any qualitative deficiency and / or
regeneration need;
• should be the preferred location for any future demand from the service
sector;
• should reflect, wherever possible, any natural or physical barriers that exist
such as parks, rivers, railways and ring roads;
• should reflect, wherever possible, any clear changes in property use (eg. from
commercial to residential);
93
Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations
Fig. 7.1 Craigavon Town Centre
Fig. 7.2 Lurgan Town Centre
Fig 7.3 Portadown Town Centre
Key
Town Centre Boundary
Primary Retail Core Boundary
Primary Retail Frontage Designation
These maps are available to view on the Craigavon Town Centre Plan webpage
of the Planning Service website
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
• should attempt to include the majority of existing and planned uses which
have a town centre function, such as a retail, service, leisure, entertainment,
catering, cultural, civic and offices; and
• should generally focus all existing and planned commercial and civic
investment within a relatively tightly drawn area, such that residents, workers
and visitors can carry out linked trips and such facilities are able to function
in a manner that is consistent with sustainability objectives.
Criteria for Defining Primary Retail Cores
• should include the majority of existing retail and retail-related activities
found in a town centre;
• should ideally be the focus of all new retail investment in a town centre
within the Plan period;
• should be the area of the town centre which attracts the vast majority of
existing and future shoppers; and
• should not be the favoured area for accommodating any future demand from
the service sector (service uses should, wherever possible, be directed to
locations outside the primary retail core);
Criteria for Defining Protected Retail Frontages
• should include those road or street frontages that accommodate mainly
national comparison goods multiple retailers, including anchor stores;
• should include those road or street frontages that contain the more modern,
larger and better configured stores available in a town centre; and
• should encompass those road or street frontages that constitute the prime
pitch of a town centre according to rental tone and pedestrian footfall.
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Town Centre Boundaries
7.29 This type of boundary is designed to define what geographically constitutes a town
centre. We have defined town centre boundaries for Craigavon, Lurgan and
Portadown. Our location specific rationale for defining the three town centre
boundaries is as follows:
• Craigavon – We are recommending a more confined town centre boundary
to restrict traditional town centre activities within a more concentrated area.
This action should promote the development of a more vibrant and traditional
town centre environment.
• Lurgan – The recommended boundary broadly mirrors the previously
established town centre boundary. The revised boundary is physically
constrained on two sides; to the north by Lurgan Park, and to the south west
by the inner relief road. To the south west, the town’s boundary comes to a
natural interface with the residential suburban sprawl making this interchange
an obvious termination point of the town centre boundary.
• Portadown – The revised town centre boundary is physically constrained to
the north west by the railway line, to the south by an identifiable change in
land use from commercial to residential and on its western boundary by the
River Bann.
We are recommending that the revised town boundary straddles the River
Bann. The inclusion of the Edenderry district will facilitate regeneration and
will also centralise the River Bann within the town centre itself.
The River Bann offers an excellent regeneration opportunity, although this
has not yet been recognised by the development market. The revised town
centre boundary should facilitate development on this unique focal point.
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Primary Retail Cores
7.30 A primary retail core1 defines the main focus of existing and future retail activity
within a town centre. The primary retail cores cover a much smaller area than the
town centre as a whole. We have defined primary retail cores for Craigavon, Lurgan
and Portadown town centres and our location specific rationale is set out below:
• Craigavon – a primary retail core is defined in its most simplistic form by
the enclosed mall component of the existing Rushmere Shopping Centre.
• Lurgan – Lurgan traditionally has exhibited the traditional traits of a market
town with retail development proliferating in a linear fashion along Market
Street and onto High Street. This has prevented cluster development
occurring and, to an extent, continuous comparison goods retail frontages
occurring.
In order to concentrate and focus primary retail within a core area, we are
recommending that the existing configuration and extent of the prime retail
core is reduced. We believe that confining the primary retail core to Market
Street and providing depth to the town centre, should encourage development
opportunities to be identified and realised.
• Portadown – The primary retail core is determined by a combination of
physical constraints and also the proximity of existing built retail
development. The railway line and the north way enclose the town centre on
its northern boundary where High Street Mall and Magowan Buildings are
positioned. To the south west, the Meadows Centre is positioned on the
banks of the River Bann which again prevents further encroachment beyond.
As a result, the primary retail core sits as a triangle in shape, bounded by the
River Bann, the north way and on its southern boundary, by residential
development.
1
Primary retail core areas are mentioned in PPS 5, paragraph 23.
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Protected Retail Frontages
7.31 A protected retail frontage defines that part of a town centre which should be retained
in retail use. Accordingly, planning policy should resist the change of use of units in
these frontages away from retail, whilst existing non-retail uses in these frontages
should be encouraged through the planning process to revert to retail use when there
is a change of ownership and / or they become vacant. Protected retail frontages have
been defined for Lurgan and Portadown town centres (and not Craigavon, see below).
The location specific rationale behind our designations is as follows:
• Craigavon – We do not feel that any frontages need protecting in Craigavon.
In any event virtually all of the retail accommodation is in the Rushmere
Shopping Centre, and as described in Section 4 (paragraph 4.19), the main
malls are dominated by retail stores, whilst the few service uses are mainly
located in the secondary areas of the centre.
• Lurgan – Primary retail frontages are defined as those frontages that have
attracted or are likely to attract high calibre UK or Northern Irish multiple
retailers. These frontages provide the key retail character to Lurgan town
centre.
• Portadown – The primary retail frontages are clearly defined on the ground
by West Street, Market Street and High Street, where there is the greatest
representation of UK and Northern Irish multiple retailers. This environment
provides the most recognisable retail environment within Portadown town
centre. This definition connects the Magowan West and High Street Mall
Shopping Centres on the north side of the High Street, whilst also protecting
the facing frontages on the south side.
Key Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
7.32 Our key study conclusions and recommendations to The Planning Service are as
follows:
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• during the remainder of the Plan period to 2010, the overall objective must be
to maintain and enhance the vitality and viability of all three town centres in
Craigavon District – Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown – thus maintaining,
in broad terms, the existing shopping hierarchy in accordance with strategic
retail planning policy;
• over the past 5-10 years, Craigavon has attracted most of the new retail
investment in the District, at the expense of Lurgan and Portadown;
• as a result, Portadown and (particularly) Lurgan are now in poorest retail and
economic health; this being consistent with our conclusions on qualitative
retail deficiency and the recognised need for regeneration in each town and
the plans and proposals put forward by Portadown 2000 and Lurgan Forward;
• thus any new retail investment should ideally be directed towards Lurgan and
Portadown town centres in order that the regeneration benefits of such
investment are maximised;
• however, given Craigavon’s status as a ‘town centre’, it is difficult under
current retail planning policy to prevent further retail investment at
Craigavon, which is likely to be the location of choice for the retail industry;
• we therefore recommend that The Planning Service formulate a strict
planning policy for Craigavon town centre that will prevent material amounts
of additional retail floorspace being developed at this location during the Plan
period;
• in terms of quantitative need, the existing pipeline of retail commitments and
proposals within Craigavon District already far exceeds the available
potential expenditure by the end of the Plan period in 2010 and also by 2015;
• if all (or most) of this new retail development actually gets built, then this is
likely to divert sales away from the existing retail offer within Craigavon
District, which, in turn, will lead to some of the present retail floorspace in
the District falling out of productive use – striking the right balance between
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encouraging new retail investment in Craigavon District, particularly where
there is a recognised qualitative deficiency and it would act as a stimulus to
economic regeneration, and accepting that some existing retail floorspace
will fall out of use, is a judgement call for The Planning Service;
• the boundaries we have defined for the town centres, in our view, contain
sufficient sites or available physical capacity to accommodate the quantums
of identified need through to the end of the Plan period in 2010;
• the retail need conclusions and policy recommendations set out in this study
should be revisited after 2010.
99
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDICES
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 1
The Operational Specification (Extract)
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 2
Commissioner’s Report on Public Inquiry into Craigavon
Local Plan (Extract)
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 3
Schedule of Consultations Undertaken
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
Schedule of Consultees
Face to face meetings have been held with the following key stakeholders as part of
the preparation of this study and Colliers CRE would like to thank these organisations
for their valuable comments and suggestions.
• Lurgan Chamber of Trade
• Lurgan Forward
• Portadown Chamber of Commerce
• Portadown 2000
• Craigavon Borough Council
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 4
Household Telephone Survey
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 4A
Survey Methodology and Sampling
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
__________
The Household Survey
• The household telephone survey throughout Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland
provides robust data to inform our assessment of retail floor space need/capacity. It allows us to
determine:
- town catchment areas for convenience goods and comparison goods shopping;
- the extent of catchment area overlap between towns;
- the geographical trade penetration of towns;
- the levels and pattern of consumer expenditure retention and leakage;
- estimates of the retail turnover of towns;
- consumer attitudes towards different towns.
• The household survey area (agreed with The Planning Service prior to the fieldwork) is shown in
Figure 3.1 in the main report, while a table later in this Appendix gives the achieved sample size
for each of the 16 survey zones. Interviewees were confined to that member of each household
responsible for most of the shopping. We successfully carried out 1,504 telephone interviews
across Craigavon District and its shopping hinterland; this is a large survey by any standards and
provides a strong empirical underpinning to the study.
• Results from the household survey have been re-weighted to provide total information
representative of the overall survey area, taking into account the relative number of households in
each of the survey zones. This procedure allows us to analyse differences in behaviour and attitudes
within different areas of the catchment, whilst providing a thoroughly representative sample of the
whole.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 4B
Key Results
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 1: AGE AND GENDER OF RESPONDENTS (%)
Zone Age Gender
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Refused Male Female
1 Maghery 1.1 7.4 13.8 18.1 14.9 44.7 0.0 24.5 75.5
2 Portadown 3.0 7.9 17.8 17.8 23.8 29.7 0.0 19.8 80.2
3 Bann Valley 0.0 5.6 14.8 22.2 20.4 35.2 1.9 25.9 74.1
4 Craigavon 3.2 11.7 20.2 16.0 18.1 28.7 2.1 33.0 67.0
5 Lurgan 1.1 3.2 11.7 9.6 22.3 50.0 1.1 21.3 78.7
6 Magheralin 1.1 5.3 22.1 30.5 21.1 20.0 0.0 27.4 72.6
7 Waringstown 1.3 5.2 15.6 23.4 19.5 33.8 1.3 22.1 77.9
8 Lisburn West 0.0 6.4 17.0 16.0 21.3 37.2 2.1 29.8 70.2
9 Lisburn East 1.1 6.4 19.1 14.9 13.8 44.7 0.0 33.0 67.0
10 Banbridge West 3.2 11.7 21.3 12.8 19.1 31.9 0.0 25.5 74.5
11 Banbridge East 0.0 12.8 21.3 20.2 22.3 23.4 0.0 24.5 75.5
12 Armagh East 2.1 12.8 18.1 23.4 21.3 22.3 0.0 30.9 69.1
13 Armagh North 7.4 6.2 16.0 14.8 28.4 27.2 0.0 23.5 76.5
14 Armagh West 7.5 12.9 9.7 12.9 16.1 36.6 4.3 22.6 77.4
15 Dungannon 11.8 6.5 16.1 17.2 17.2 28.0 3.2 10.8 89.2
16 Dungannon East 8.4 10.8 16.9 21.7 16.9 25.3 0.0 15.7 84.3
Average 3.3 8.4 17.1 16.7 18.4 35.0 1.0 25.5 74.5
TABLE 2: SAMPLE PROFILE (%)
Social Grade
Zone
AB C1 C2 D E1 E2 Refused Total
1 Maghery 10.6 20.2 25.2 2.1 31.9 3.2 6.4 100.0
2 Portadown 4.0 17.8 22.8 14.9 26.7 7.9 5.9 100.0
3 Bann Valley 14.8 38.9 14.8 3.7 13.0 0.0 14.8 100.0
4 Craigavon 9.6 8.5 19.1 10.6 36.2 8.5 7.4 100.0
5 Lurgan 6.4 8.5 6.4 10.6 63.8 2.1 2.1 100.0
6 Magheralin 26.3 20.0 30.5 17.9 0.0 1.1 4.2 100.0
7 Waringstown 16.9 27.3 29.9 7.8 11.7 0.0 6.5 100.0
8 Lisburn West 11.7 17.0 17.0 5.3 39.4 6.4 3.2 100.0
9 Lisburn East 17.0 22.3 18.1 13.8 11.7 5.3 11.7 100.0
10 Banbridge West 20.2 30.9 18.1 20.2 3.2 3.2 4.3 100.0
11 Banbridge East 6.4 17.0 41.5 3.2 16.0 5.3 10.6 100.0
12 Armagh East 6.4 26.6 33.0 9.6 18.1 3.2 3.2 100.0
13 Armagh North 14.8 13.6 17.3 14.8 25.9 4.9 8.6 100.0
14 Armagh West 5.4 14.0 15.1 14.0 46.2 1.1 4.3 100.0
15 Dungannon 7.5 16.1 20.4 14.0 35.5 5.4 1.1 100.0
16 Dungannon East 6.0 28.9 19.3 10.8 21.7 3.6 9.6 100.0
Average 11.7 20.9 19.7 11.7 24.6 4.2 7.2 100.0
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 3: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - FREQUENCY OF VISIT TO MAIN CENTRE(%)
More than 2-3 times a Once a Once every Once every Don't know /
Centre Once a week Less often Total
once a week month month 2-3 months 4-6 months Varies
Armagh 5.2 19.2 8.8 19.6 24.8 14.5 7.8 0.0 100.0
Banbridge 4.5 11.3 10.8 21.2 23.0 14.3 7.4 7.5 100.0
Belfast - City Centre 1.9 15.3 14.7 27.8 24.1 4.8 4.4 6.9 100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 16.9 28.3 18.4 23.0 7.6 2.3 1.8 1.7 100.0
Dungannon 9.0 31.1 12.7 28.0 5.3 8.3 2.9 2.7 100.0
Lisburn 5.5 18.2 9.4 26.2 15.3 7.4 4.4 13.5 100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 0.0 12.5 10.7 21.5 25.7 0.0 9.4 20.3 100.0
Lurgan 6.7 27.1 7.9 20.1 12.5 13.8 8.6 3.3 100.0
Newry 0.0 13.0 30.3 21.7 22.4 6.9 1.6 4.2 100.0
Portadown 10.3 30.6 17.2 16.8 12.2 6.4 3.3 3.3 100.0
Average 7.2 20.9 13.2 23.6 15 7.7 5.7 6.8 100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 4: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - REASON FOR VISITING MAIN CENTRE (%)
Good
Close Good Pedestrianised Good Good / Part of joint More Friends / Friends / Habit /
Close choice of Ease Free / Good Don't know /
to range of streets / value cheap to trip to convenient / family family familiar /
Centre to shops / of cheap quality Other no particular Total
home / major attractive for public other facility easier to get live take always
work range of parking parking products reason
convenient stores environment money transport / centre to there me go there
stores
Armagh 63.9 0.0 18.1 2.6 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.0 100.0
Banbridge 62.7 0.0 12.8 7.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 10.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.2 0.0 100.0
Belfast - City Centre 15.8 1.0 47.7 9.5 0.3 0.6 6.9 0.0 0.0 17.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 44.5 0.5 33.9 5.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 2.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 0.0 100.0
Dungannon 90.6 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.0 100.0
Lisburn 43.9 3.0 20.6 9.0 0.3 5.9 0.0 0.8 0.0 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.4 100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 22.1 0.0 28.2 7.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 32.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.0 100.0
Lurgan 78.3 0.0 8.5 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 2.7 0.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.2 0.6 100.0
Newry 33.5 0.0 42.7 7.0 1.7 1.4 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.2 2.2 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown 75.7 1.7 17.7 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 100.0
Average 53.3 1.2 23.2 5.1 0.6 2.6 0.6 0.9 0.3 7.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.2 0.3 100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 5: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT TO MAIN CENTRE(%)
Car
Car Driver Bus Train Walked Taxi Other Total
Centre passenger
Armagh 50.0 18.6 10.8 0.0 10.3 7.7 2.6 100.0
Banbridge 73.2 12.8 1.0 0.0 12.9 0.0 0.0 100.0
Belfast - City Centre 73.6 7.1 15.8 1.7 1.8 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 75.5 15.9 3.3 0.0 2.7 2.6 0.0 100.0
Dungannon 53.3 29.7 11.5 0.0 2.8 2.8 0.0 100.0
Lisburn 66.6 15.3 13.4 0.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 79.2 12.6 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lurgan 51.4 14.3 10.3 0.0 21.1 2.9 0.0 100.0
Newry 76.7 17.0 5.5 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown 70.4 9.9 6.2 0.2 12.6 0.6 0.0 100.0
Average 67.5 15.0 9.0 0.4 6.4 1.4 0.3 100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
TABLE 6: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY ZONE (%)
5 mins or 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 Over
Total
Zone less mins mins mins mins mins 30 mins
1 Maghery 2.3 55.2 37.9 3.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 100.0
2 Portadown 39.8 28.6 16.3 9.2 0.0 4.1 2.0 100.0
3 Bann Valley 17.6 56.9 15.7 2.0 3.9 0.0 3.9 100.0
4 Craigavon 32.4 35.1 10.8 9.5 0.0 4.1 8.1 100.0
5 Lurgan 15.9 25.4 20.6 17.5 4.8 11.1 4.8 100.0
6 Magheralin 2.3 16.3 23.3 27.9 9.3 8.1 12.8 100.0
7 Waringstown 1.3 47.4 19.7 21.1 6.6 2.6 1.3 100.0
8 Lisburn West 23.5 23.5 29.4 15.3 0.0 7.1 1.2 100.0
9 Lisburn East 16.0 25.3 26.7 13.3 2.7 2.7 13.3 100.0
10 Banbridge West 15.9 12.2 15.9 35.4 4.9 2.4 13.4 100.0
11 Banbridge East 3.3 9.9 11.0 35.2 4.4 14.3 22.0 100.0
12 Armagh East 1.1 25.3 27.5 23.1 5.5 8.8 8.8 100.0
13 Armagh North 1.4 36.6 28.2 15.5 7.0 4.2 7.0 100.0
14 Armagh West 9.8 6.6 26.2 21.3 8.2 16.4 11.5 100.0
15 Dungannon 8.6 18.6 17.1 21.4 5.7 7.1 21.4 100.0
16 Dungannon East 12.0 21.3 13.3 12.0 9.3 10.7 21.3 100.0
Average 14.8 24.4 21.7 17.4 4.2 6.5 11.0 100.0
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 7: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY CENTRE (%)
5 mins or 6-10 16-20 Over 30
11-15 mins 21-25mins 26-30mins Total
Centre less mins mins mins
Armagh 16.1 15.7 41.0 15.5 3.2 6.4 2.1 100.0
Banbridge 16.6 25.8 22.8 29.9 0.0 3.1 1.8 100.0
Belfast - City Centre 0.0 5.6 12.6 16.2 6.4 8.8 50.3 100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 13.2 25.9 19.5 23.0 9.2 5.8 3.3 100.0
Dungannon 17.0 37.9 20.5 6.1 6.6 4.0 7.9 100.0
Lisburn 19.9 26.5 22.9 15.7 3.0 6.4 5.6 100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 9.1 22.0 34.0 10.1 2.8 5.7 16.2 100.0
Lurgan 21.1 43.9 17.9 10.0 3.3 3.1 0.6 100.0
Newry 2.8 6.4 10.4 34.7 10.4 13.7 21.5 100.0
Portadown 17.7 33.2 21.4 18.1 1.6 5.2 2.9 100.0
Average 14.8 24.4 21.7 17.4 4.2 6.5 11.0 100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
TABLE 7a: ORIGIN OF JOURNEY TO MAIN CENTRE (NON-BULKY GOODS)
Centre Home Work Other Total
Armagh 97.4 2.6 0.0 100.0
Banbridge 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Belfast - City Centre 98.2 1.8 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 99.0 1.0 0.0 100.0
Dungannon 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn 96.7 2.9 0.4 100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 98.6 1.4 0.0 100.0
Lurgan 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Newry 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown 99.3 0.5 0.2 100.0
Average 98.6 1.3 0.1 100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 8: NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - CENTRE USED FOR OCCASIONAL / CHRISTMAS SHOPPING BY ZONE (%)
Survey Zone
Centre
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Ave
Armagh 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.7 21.5 2.2 1.2 2.6
Banbridge 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 1.1 0.0 17.0 10.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
Belfast - City Centre 7.4 11.9 5.6 23.4 21.3 13.7 14.5 5.4 20.2 4.3 12.8 14.9 12.3 11.8 12.0 18.5 14.1
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 9.6 3.0 7.4 29.8 6.4 25.3 9.2 2.2 0.0 5.3 0.0 2.1 2.5 2.2 7.6 0.0 4.1
Dungannon 2.1 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 18.5 2.4
Lisburn 7.4 1.0 3.7 10.6 11.7 24.2 13.2 69.9 43.6 6.4 20.2 8.5 7.4 2.2 12.0 7.4 22.4
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.1 3.2 2.6 0.0 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 0.0 2.2 0.0 1.2
Lurgan 0.0 0.0 3.7 5.3 16.0 15.8 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
Newry 4.3 0.0 1.9 0.0 1.1 4.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 14.9 45.7 21.3 2.5 20.4 0.0 3.7 6.8
Portadown 54.3 42.6 35.2 3.2 2.1 1.1 6.6 1.1 0.0 11.7 0.0 33.0 17.3 4.3 9.8 6.2 9.4
Average 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.1 4.3 2.1 1.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 3.2 4.3 4.9 0.0 3.3 8.6 2.1
Other 12.7 41.5 38.7 23.4 36.0 10.4 35.5 20.3 33.0 38.3 6.4 8.4 45.7 37.6 41.1 35.9 31.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 9: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - FREQUENCY OF VISIT TO MAIN CENTRE (%)
Once Once
More than 2-3 times a Once a Less Don't know /
Centre Once a week every every Total
once a week month month often Varies
2-3 months 4-6 months
Armagh 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 92.1 1.8 100
Banbridge 0.0 0.9 3.3 12.7 15.4 33.2 21.4 13.1 100
Belfast - City Centre 0.0 0.0 15.3 15.3 4.5 19.5 45.5 0.0 100
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 0.0 4.7 6.0 9.4 8.8 18.5 48.4 4.1 100
Dungannon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.2 12.9 81.9 2.2 100
Lisburn 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 7.8 26.7 20.9 35.8 100
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.1 3.6 34.7 24.8 35.0 100
Lurgan 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.7 4.3 16.6 72.6 1.9 100
Newry 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.9 4.4 28.6 57.0 5.7 100
Portadown 1.5 2.3 1.1 7.1 13.2 22.0 42.9 9.9 100
Average 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.7 8.7 21.8 45.0 14.9 100
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 10: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - REASON FOR VISITING MAIN CENTRE (%)
Good choice Good Pedestrianised Good / Part of joint More Habit / Don't know
Close to Good Ease Free / Good Friends /
Close to of shops / range of streets / cheap to trip to convenient / familiar / / no
Centre home / value for of cheap quality family Other Total
work range of major attractive public other facility / easier always go particular
convenient money parking parking products take me
stores stores environment transport centre to get to there reason
Armagh 74.4 0.0 9.8 3.2 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 100.0
Banbridge 46.3 4.2 13.0 12.6 3.2 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 2.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 100.0
Belfast - City Centre 23.5 1.5 58.2 1.5 0.0 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 57.8 1.6 25.7 2.7 0.3 2.6 0.7 4.5 0.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 100.0
Dungannon 81.9 2.1 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.1 100.0
Lisburn 37.8 0.3 34.4 12.6 0.3 2.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.2 100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 40.2 1.5 29.6 15.9 0.0 4.4 0.0 1.5 5.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 100.0
Lurgan 85.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 100.0
Newry 55.3 0.0 23.9 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 2.8 100.0
Portadown 83.8 1.0 9.3 1.7 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 100.0
Average 56.0 1.5 23.1 5.7 0.2 3.7 0.4 1.9 1.4 1.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.9 1.6 100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 11: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT TO MAIN CENTRE (%)
Car -
Centre Car - Driver Bus Train Walked Taxi Total
passenger
Armagh 64.6 16.7 2.3 0.0 9.4 7.0 100
Banbridge 79.6 7.4 0.0 0.0 13.0 0.0 100
Belfast - City Centre 89.5 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 67.6 19.7 6.3 0.0 2.3 4.1 100
Dungannon 66.0 27.3 3.0 0.0 2.1 1.7 100
Lisburn 66.8 14.5 13.6 0.0 2.6 2.6 100
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 75.5 21.4 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100
Lurgan 48.3 18.8 1.8 0.0 29.6 1.4 100
Newry 67.8 25.3 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 100
Portadown 70.6 14.7 6.0 0.0 8.4 0.4 100
Average 72.7 19.7 6.3 0.1 4.5 1.5 100
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
TABLE 12: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY ZONE (%)
5 mins 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 Over 30
Zone Total
or less mins mins mins mins mins mins
1 Maghery 1.2 52.4 41.5 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 100
2 Portadown 28.6 28.6 27.4 11.9 0.0 2.4 1.2 100
3 Bann Valley 21.7 56.5 17.4 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 100
4 Craigavon 33.3 25.5 9.8 5.9 0.0 3.9 21.6 100
5 Lurgan 22.0 32.0 20.0 16.0 0.0 6.0 4.0 100
6 Magheralin 6.5 20.8 22.1 22.1 5.2 13.0 10.4 100
7 Waringstown 2.9 58.8 26.5 8.8 1.5 0.0 1.5 100
8 Lisburn West 27.9 29.4 22.1 11.8 1.5 7.4 0.0 100
9 Lisburn East 21.4 30.4 26.8 10.7 0.0 3.6 7.1 100
10 Banbridge West 23.7 6.8 23.7 25.4 5.1 3.4 11.9 100
11 Banbridge East 5.5 16.4 12.3 26.0 8.2 6.8 24.7 100
12 Armagh East 12.2 11.0 35.4 25.6 8.5 3.7 3.7 100
13 Armagh North 5.6 38.9 33.3 9.3 7.4 0.0 5.6 100
14 Armagh West 18.9 17.0 30.2 17.0 3.8 3.8 9.4 100
15 Dungannon 13.1 23.0 13.1 14.8 6.6 11.5 18.0 100
16 Dungannon East 25.8 24.2 11.3 9.7 8.1 4.8 16.1 100
Average 19.8 27.2 23.1 13.8 3.3 4.4 8.4 100
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 13: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE BY CENTRE (%)
5 mins 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 Over 30
Centre Total
or less mins mins mins mins mins mins
Armagh 23.4 24.0 31.6 15.0 3.6 2.3 0.0 100
Banbridge 33.5 18.2 23.0 11.5 1.9 2.3 9.6 100
Belfast - City Centre 0.0 19.7 3.0 0.0 0.0 19.8 57.5 100
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 14.2 31.1 28.6 17.7 0.7 4.9 2.9 100
Dungannon 27.3 32.6 14.8 10.2 5.8 5.1 4.3 100
Lisburn 29.5 29.4 24.6 8.3 1.2 5.4 1.6 100
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 20.9 26.2 24.4 12.7 1.7 5.6 8.6 100
Lurgan 28.1 38.3 15.6 12.5 0.0 3.1 2.4 100
Newry 4.4 10.0 21.9 37.4 6.3 0.0 20.0 100
Portadown 19.4 37.8 26.5 6.5 2.3 3.1 4.4 100
Average 19.8 27.1 23.1 13.8 3.3 4.4 8.4 100
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
TABLE 13a: ORIGIN OF JOURNEY TO MAIN CENTRE (BULKY GOODS)
Centre Home Work Other Total
Armagh 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Banbridge 96.8 3.2 0.0 100.0
Belfast - City Centre 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Rushmere Shopping Centre 98.8 1.2 0.0 100.0
Dungannon 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn - Sprucefield Retail Park 98.5 1.5 0.0 100.0
Lurgan 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Newry 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Average 99.4 0.5 0.2 100.0
The average includes centres that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 14: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - DAY OF THE WEEK WHICH MAIN FOOD IS UNDERTAKEN (%)
Weekdays Weekdays
Varies / No
Store (Mon-Fri) (Mon-Fri) Saturday Sunday Total
particular time
Daytime Evening
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 33.2 9.3 15.9 1.7 39.8 99.9
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 62.0 15.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 49.4 17.6 2.9 0.0 30.1 100.0
Dungannon- Tesco 43.9 6.9 15.3 0.0 33.9 100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco 46.7 13.3 6.7 0.0 33.3 100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 45.2 5.5 6.6 0.0 42.6 99.9
Lisburn- Greens 57.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.3 100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 34.9 23.1 12.3 0.0 29.8 100.1
Lurgan - Tesco 71.8 8.1 9.6 0.5 10.0 100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 75.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7 100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 48.5 19.6 9.6 1.0 21.4 100.1
Average 51.6 10.2 9.3 0.3 28.7 100.1
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
TABLE 15: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - ORIGIN OF TRIP TO MAIN FOOD CENTRE / STORE (%)
Home of Friend
Store Home Work Other Total
/ Family
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 98.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 95.2 2.5 0.0 2.3 100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 97.6 2.4 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dungannon- Tesco 96.6 2.4 1.1 0.0 100.1
Dunmarry - Tesco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 97.5 1.6 0.0 0.9 100.0
Lisburn- Greens 97.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 95.5 4.5 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lurgan - Tesco 98.3 1.2 0.0 0.5 100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 98.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 100.0
Average 97.3 2.3 0.1 0.2 99.9
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 16: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - FREQUENCY OF VISIT TO MAIN STORE / CENTRE (%)
3 times a Once Don't
Twice a Once a Once a Once a
Store week or every two Less often know / Total
week week fortnight month
more often months Varies
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 10.9 21.5 59.6 5.3 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 11.0 14.1 71.6 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 8.5 15.8 67.9 2.1 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dungannon- Tesco 15.7 10.6 70.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco 13.3 33.3 53.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 12.5 15.2 70.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn- Greens 18.1 36.3 31.4 8.1 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 6.8 24.8 68.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lurgan - Tesco 4.1 24.3 69.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.5 100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 26.0 20.0 52.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 8.7 18.2 68.5 1.4 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 100.0
Average 14.5 20.1 56.2 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.1 100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
TABLE 17: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT TO MAIN CENTRE / STORE (%)
Car -
Store Car - Driver Bus Walked Cycle Taxi Other Total
passenger
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 82.5 11.3 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 83.1 7.8 5.1 1.4 0.0 2.6 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 64.8 25.2 3.0 1.1 1.1 4.9 0.0 100.0
Dungannon- Tesco 63.1 31.6 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco 60.0 13.3 6.7 13.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 75.9 13.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.9 6.3 100.0
Lisburn- Greens 57.7 12.1 12.1 6.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 74.9 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 100.0
Lurgan - Tesco 52.2 22.5 2.1 19.8 0.0 3.3 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 61.2 3.7 14.8 14.8 0.0 5.5 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 75.0 17.1 2.5 4.5 0.0 0.9 0.0 100.0
Average 68.8 17.1 3.5 7.3 0.0 1.6 1.6 100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 18: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - JOURNEY TIME TO MAIN CENTRE / STORE (%)
5 mins 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 Over 30
Total
Store or less mins mins mins mins mins mins
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 37.8 25.7 18.3 16.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 28.7 44.3 20.0 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 28.8 36.3 21.4 10.2 0.0 2.6 0.7 100.0
Dungannon- Tesco 12.1 50.0 13.4 8.3 9.4 1.1 5.8 100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco 23.1 46.2 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 29.0 32.9 19.7 9.1 4.8 2.2 2.3 100.0
Lisburn- Greens 6.6 46.1 26.3 6.6 6.6 7.8 0.0 100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 15.4 21.7 41.1 1.2 12.2 0.0 8.4 100.0
Lurgan - Tesco 25.8 52.3 9.9 9.1 0.0 2.9 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 22.3 32.0 17.4 21.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 22.9 43.8 23.1 6.4 0.0 1.9 1.9 100.0
Average 28.0 36.1 20.4 9.4 2.2 2.3 1.6 100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Borough- Retail Sector Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 19: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - REASON FOR VISITING MAIN CENTRE/STORE (%)
Habit /
Close to Good / cheap Wide choice of Good prices / Good quality Friends / Don't know /
Close to Ease of Free / cheap Close to More convenient Familiar /
Store home / public goods / value for goods / Family Other no particular Total
work parking parking other shops / easier to get to Always go
convenient transport products money products take me reason
there
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 47.9 1.4 6.6 2.2 0.0 9.3 0.0 18.9 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 100
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 66.2 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 12.1 2.6 5.4 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.8 0.0 107
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 51.2 0.0 0.7 3.0 0.0 16.1 2.5 13.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.6 3.0 100
Dungannon- Tesco 65.5 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 27.8 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100
Dunmarry - Tesco 80.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 100
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 57.8 0.2 2.0 4.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 13.7 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 11.8 0.0 100
Lisburn- Greens 24.2 2.1 0.0 6.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 18.1 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.0 100
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 44.1 2.1 0.0 11.1 0.0 38.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 100
Lurgan - Tesco 65.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 18.2 0.0 7.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.3 0.0 100
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 68.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.0 7.4 6.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.7 0.0 100
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 78.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 10.5 0.0 3.9 3.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.4 0.0 100
Average 60.2 1.6 1.6 2.0 0.1 11.4 0.2 9.0 4.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 7.5 1.3 100
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 20: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - INCIDENCE OF LINKED TRIPS BY CENTRE/STORE (%)
Don't know / no
Store Yes No Total
reply
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 12.2 86.7 1.1 100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 48.2 51.8 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
Dungannon- Tesco 17.8 82.2 0.0 100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco 6.7 80.0 13.3 100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 6.8 85.2 8.1 100.1
Lisburn- Greens 1.2 92.8 6.0 100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 2.1 97.9 0.0 100.0
Lurgan - Tesco 22.9 77.1 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 41.4 58.6 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 35.2 64.8 0.0 100.0
Average 22.8 75.0 2.2 100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 21: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - MODE OF TRANSPORT USED FOR LINKED TRIPS (%)
Store Car Walk Bus Taxi Other Total
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 21.5 78.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 9.7 90.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 18.9 81.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dungannon- Tesco 40.4 59.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dunmarry - Tesco 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 56.8 43.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn- Greens 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Lurgan - Tesco 14.8 85.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 15.6 84.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 8.1 89.7 0.0 0.0 2.2 100.0
Average 19.9 78.3 0.2 1.3 0.3 100.0
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 22: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING - SHOPS/SERVICES NORMALLY VISITED ON A LINKED TRIP (%)
Professional
Financial outlets Café / Department /
services Specialist Fashion Charity Other Florist / HMV / Record Don't know /
Store (Banks Building Post office restaurant / Chemist Newsagents variety Boots Woolworths Other
(solicitors, food shops shops shops Supermarket Flower Shop store no reply
Soc.) pub store
accountants)
Banbridge- Tesco, Castlewellan Rd 0.0 0.0 12.6 17.5 40.0 26.8 15.1 12.7 2.5 15.4 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.4 5.0
Craigavon - Sainsbury, Rushmere Centre 16.1 5.8 17.7 41.8 18.4 39.8 27.7 45.2 4.0 30.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 4.7
Craigavon - Tesco, Rushmere Centre 17.1 1.9 26.5 40.5 14.1 26.8 17.9 33.9 11.8 28.2 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 33.2 0.0
Dungannon- Tesco 23.1 0.0 20.7 0.0 20.7 41.4 0.0 62.0 0.0 0.0 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.0
Dunmarry - Tesco 100.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lisburn - Tesco, Bentrim Rd 0.0 0.0 12.5 45.3 12.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 12.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.3 12.5
Lisburn- Greens 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lisburn- Sainsbury, Sprucefield Centre 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lurgan - Tesco 38.3 2.1 26.8 1.6 23.3 29.5 14.6 30.4 8.3 13.6 10.7 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 12.3
Portadown- Dunnes Stores, Irwin Centre 66.6 8.8 46.6 37.8 33.3 66.5 37.8 49.0 8.8 33.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portadown- Tesco, Meadow Lane Centre 45.2 11.0 42.7 35.2 34.4 52.8 24.0 57.2 19.4 29.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 2.0
Average 31.1 2.9 34.3 24.9 21 40.5 20.4 32.2 13.1 18.5 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.2 3.3
The average includes stores that are not listed in this table.
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 4C
Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Job No: GW/05/254
AREA
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
BEACON RESEARCH
Suite 3, The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang. Lancs. PR3 1YB
Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336
DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PLANNING SERVICE
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (MAY 2005)
Name:
Address:
Postcode: ‘
C1 Age: 16-24 1 Supervisor/Manager/Self Employed
25-34 2 Size of company
35-44 3 No. of employees
45-54 4
55-64 5 If Retired
65 + 6 Company pension–ask previous occupation
State pension only – code 5 below
C2 Sex: Male 1
Female 2 If Unemployed
Less than 2 months – ask about previous
C3 Do you have the use of a car for occupation
shopping? Over 2 months – code 6 below
Yes 1 Now Assess Social Grade
No 2 AB 1
C1 2
C4 What is the occupation of the chief C2 3
wage earner in your household? D 4
E1 (Retired) 5
Full/Part time employed 1 E2 (Unemployed) 6
Retired 2 Refused 7
Unemployed 3
C5 Day / Time of interview
Occupation
Weekday 1 Morning 1
Rank/Status Weekend 2 Afternoon 2
Evening 3
No. of Employees
Qualifications
Interviewer Signature: ____________________________________________
Date: _________________________________________________________
Job No: GW/05/254
Good morning / afternoon, my name is ................................................................
We are doing some research on behalf of The Department of the Environment, Planning
Service to improve shopping facilities in this area and I’d like to ask you a few questions.
Are you / may I speak to the person responsible for the majority of your household shopping?
YES 1
NO 2 - CLOSE INTERVIEW
As we need to speak to people across a number of areas, could you please tell me your full
postcode?
WRITE IN POST CODE HERE ______________________
Refer to quota and check that respondent is eligible for interview - if not, thank and
close.
Job No: GW/05/254
Q1a Can I ask you first of all, excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet at
which Town, Centre or Retail Park do you do most of your shopping for non-food
goods such as Clothing & Footwear, books, gifts and jewellery?
Q1b And how often do you visit..................... Centre or Retail Park for this type
of non-food shopping?
Q1c And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on non-food goods such as clothing &
footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in
.......................Town, Centre or Retail Park?
Q2a Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what is your second most
important Town, Centre or Retail Park for non-food shopping such as Clothing &
Footwear, Books, gifts and Jewellery? (SINGLE CODE)
Q2b And how often do you visit..................... Centre or Retail Park for this type
of non-food shopping?
Q2c And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on non-food goods such as clothing &
footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in
....................... Centre or Retail Park?
RECORD ANSWERS BELOW & OPPOSITE - CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT Q1c/2c
A CENTRE Q1 Q2
Craigavon – Town centre / Rushmere Shopping centre 1 1
Craigavon – Marlborough Retail Park / B&Q 2 2
Craigavon – Highfield Grove / Halfords 3 3
Lurgan – Town centre 4 4
Portadown – Town centre 5 5
Portadown – Magowen West Retail Park 6 6
Antrim – Town Centre 7 7
Antrim – Retail Park 8 8
Ards 9 9
Armagh 10 10
Ballynahingh 11 11
Banbridge 12 12
Bangor – Town Centre 13 13
Bangor – Bloomfield Centre 14 14
Bangor – Clandeboye Retail Park 15 15
Bangor – Springhill Centre 16 16
Belfast- City Centre 17 17
Belfast – Boucher Retail Park 18 18
Belfast – Connswater Shopping Centre 19 19
Belfast – Dairy Farm Centre 20 20
Belfast – Galwally Retail Park / Homebase 21 21
Job No: GW/05/254
Belfast – Hillview Retail Park 22 22
Belfast – Kennedy Centre 23 23
Belfast – Lesley Retail Park 24 24
Belfast – Park Centre 25 25
Belfast – Westwood Centre 26 26
Belfast – Yorkgate 27 27
Belfast – Forestside Shopping Centre 28 28
Carryduff 29 29
Carrickfergus 30 30
Castlereagh – Dundonald Village 31 31
Cookstown – Town centre 32 32
Cookstown – Station Square Retail Park 33 33
Dungannon 34 34
Downpatrick 35 35
Dromore 36 36
Hillsborough 37 37
Holywood 38 38
Junction One Outlet Centre 39 39
Lisburn – Town Centre 40 40
Lisburn – Hillsborough Rd Retail Park 41 41
Lisburn – Sprucefield Retail Park 42 42
Lisburn – Langhambank Retail Park 43 43
Newcastle 44 44
Newry – Town centre 45 45
Newry – Damolly Retail Park 46 46
Newtownabbey – Abbey Centre 47 47
Newtownabbey – Abbey Retail Park / B&Q 48 48
Newtownabbey – Abbey Trading Estate 49 49
Newtownabbey – Glengormley Village 50 50
Newtownabbey – Northcott Centre 51 51
Newtownards 52 52
Dublin 53 53
Other (Write In)
No Particular Centre / Varies 54 54
None / Don’t shop / Disabled / Mail order only 55 55
No second centre 56 56
DK / Cant remember 57 57
B FREQUENCY OF VISIT
More than once a week 1 1
Once a week 2 2
2-3 times a month 3 3
Once a month 4 4
Once every 2-3 months 5 5
Once every 4-6 months 6 6
Less often 7 7
DK / Can’t remember / Varies 8 8
C % In Location (Write In) % %
Job No: GW/05/254
Q3a You said that ............ is the Centre/Retail Park where you do most of your
clothing & footwear shopping? What is your main reason for choosing that Centre?
Close to home/convenient 1 Good/Cheap Public Transport 7
Close to work 2 Ease of parking 8
Good choice of shops/range of goods stores 3 Free/cheap parking 9
Good range of major stores 4 Good quality goods/products 10
Pedesrtrianised streets/attractive environment 5 Part of joint trip to other facility/centre 11
Good prices/Good value for money 6 Other (Write In)
Q3b How do you normally travel to / from this Centre / Retail Park? (If more than one
mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)
Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6
Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7
Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8
Train 4 Taxi 9
Park & Ride 5 Other 10
Q3c Where does your journey usually start from?
Home 1
Work 2
Other (write in)
ASK ALL SAYING HOME AT Q3c - OTHERS GO TO Q4
Q3d On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Centre / Retail Park from
home?
5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5
6 – 10 minutes 2 26 – 30 minutes 6
11 – 15 minutes 3 Over 30 minutes 7
16 – 20 minutes 4
Q4 At which Town, Centre or Retail Park do you normally undertake most of your
Christmas or special occasion shopping? (Write in)
Job No: GW/05/254
Q5a Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet at which Centre or Retail
Park do you do most of your shopping for bulky non-food goods such as DIY, large
electrical goods, furniture and carpets (SINGLE CODE)
Q5b And how often do you visit ………. Centre / Retail Park for your main bulky non-
food goods shopping?
Q5c And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on bulky non-food goods shopping would you
say that you do in ....................... Centre / Retail Park?
Q6a Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet which is your second most
important Centre / Retail Park for bulky non-food goods shopping? (SINGLE
CODE)
Q6b And how often do you visit ………. Centre / Retail Park for your main bulky non-
food goods shopping?
Q6c And Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet what percentage or
proportion of your total expenditure on bulky non-food goods shopping would you
say that you do in ....................... Centre / Retail Park?
RECORD ANSWERS BELOW & OPPOSITE - CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT
Q5c/6c
A CENTRE Q1 Q2
Craigavon – Town centre / Rushmere Shopping centre 1 1
Craigavon – Marlborough Retail Park / B&Q 2 2
Craigavon – Highfield Grove / Halfords 3 3
Lurgan – Town centre 4 4
Portadown – Town centre 5 5
Portadown – Magowen West Retail Park 6 6
Antrim – Town Centre 7 7
Antrim – Retail Park 8 8
Ards 9 9
Armagh 10 10
Ballynahingh 11 11
Banbridge 12 12
Bangor – Town Centre 13 13
Bangor – Bloomfield Centre 14 14
Bangor – Clandeboye Retail Park 15 15
Bangor – Springhill Centre 16 16
Belfast- City Centre 17 17
Belfast – Boucher Retail Park 18 18
Belfast – Connswater Shopping Centre 19 19
Belfast – Dairy Farm Centre 20 20
Belfast – Galwally Retail Park / Homebase 21 21
Job No: GW/05/254
Belfast – Hillview Retail Park 22 22
Belfast – Kennedy Centre 23 23
Belfast – Lesley Retail Park 24 24
Belfast – Park Centre 25 25
Belfast – Westwood Centre 26 26
Belfast – Yorkgate 27 27
Belfast – Forestside Shopping Centre 28 28
Carryduff 29 29
Carrickfergus 30 30
Castlereagh – Dundonald Village 31 31
Cookstown – Town centre 32 32
Cookstown – Station Square Retail Park 33 33
Dungannon 34 34
Downpatrick 35 35
Dromore 36 36
Hillsborough 37 37
Holywood 38 38
Junction One Outlet Centre 39 39
Lisburn – Town Centre 40 40
Lisburn – Hillsborough Rd Retail Park 41 41
Lisburn – Sprucefield Retail Park 42 42
Lisburn – Langhambank Retail Park 43 43
Newcastle 44 44
Newry – Town centre 45 45
Newry – Damolly Retail Park 46 46
Newtownabbey – Abbey Centre 47 47
Newtownabbey – Abbey Retail Park / B&Q 48 48
Newtownabbey – Abbey Trading Estate 49 49
Newtownabbey – Glengormley Village 50 50
Newtownabbey – Northcott Centre 51 51
Newtownards 52 52
Dublin 53 53
Other (Write In)
No Particular Centre / Varies 54 54
None / Don’t shop / Disabled / Mail order only 55 55
No second centre 56 56
DK / Cant remember 57 57
B FREQUENCY OF VISIT
More than once a week 1 1
Once a week 2 2
2-3 times a month 3 3
Once a month 4 4
Once every 2-3 months 5 5
Once every 4-6 months 6 6
Less often 7 7
DK / Can’t remember / Varies 8 8
C % In Location (Write In) % %
Job No: GW/05/254
Q7a You said that ............ is the Centre/Retail Park where you do most of your
bulky non-food goods shopping? What is your main reason for choosing that
Centre?
Close to home/convenient 1 Good/Cheap Public Transport 7
Close to work 2 Ease of parking 8
Good choice of shops/range of goods stores 3 Free / cheap parking 9
Good range of major stores 4 Good quality goods/products 10
Pedesrtrianised streets / attractive environment 5 Part of joint trip to other facility / centre 11
Good prices/Good value for money 6 Other (Write In)
Q7b How do you normally travel to / from this Centre / Retail Park? (If more than one
mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)
Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6
Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7
Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8
Train 4 Taxi 9
Park & Ride 5 Other 10
Q7c Where does your journey usually start from?
Home 1
Work 2
Other (write in)
ASK ALL SAYING HOME AT Q7c - OTHERS GO TO Q8
Q7d On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Centre / Retail Park from
home?
5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5
6 – 10 minutes 2 26 – 30 minutes 6
11 – 15 minutes 3 Over 30 minutes 7
16 – 20 minutes 4
Job No: GW/05/254
Q8a At which store and centre do you usually do most or all of your main food and
grocery shopping? (Store and Centre needed - Single code)
Q8b And when during the week, would you normally shop at your main food store?
Q9a And at which Store and Centre do you usually do your remaining top-up food and
grocery shopping? (Store and Centre needed)
RECORD ANSWER BELOW
Q8a Q9a
Main Store / Centre Second Store / Centre
A CODE FROM LIST
OTHER (WRITE IN)
B WHEN SHOP
Weekdays (Mon – Fri) Daytime 1
Weekdays (Mon – Fri) Evening 2
Saturday 3
Sunday 4
Varies / No particular time 5
Q10a On average, how much do you and your household spend on food and groceries
each week in your main store?
Q10b And how much on average do you spend on food and groceries each week in your
second most important food store?
RECORD BELOW £ P
(a) Main’ store weekly total expenditure
(b) ‘ Second ’ store weekly food expenditure
(c) Total weekly food expenditure
NOTE: (c) is calculated as (a + b)
Q11a You said that................ is your main store for food/grocery shopping. How
often do you visit that store for food and grocery shopping?
Three times a week or more often 1
Twice a week 2
Once a week 3
Once a fortnight 4
Once a month 5
Once every two months 6
Less often 7
Job No: GW/05/254
Q11b What is the main reason why you and your household choose to shop at the store
where you do your main food / grocery shopping? (SINGLE CODE)
Close to home / convenient 1 Wide choice of goods / products 6
Close to work 2 Close to other shops 7
Ease of parking 3 Good prices/good value for money 8
Free / cheap parking 4 Good quality goods / products 9
Good / cheap public transport 5
Other (WRITE IN) ______________________________________________10
Q11c How do you normally travel to / from this store? (If more than one mode of
transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)
Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6
Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7
Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8
Train 4 Taxi 9
Park & Ride 5 Other 10
Q11d Where does your journey usually start from?
Home 1
Work 2
Other (write in)
ASK ALL SAYING HOME AT Q11d - OTHERS GO TO Q12a
Q11e On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Store from home?
5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5
6 – 10 minutes 2 26 – 30 minutes 6
11 – 15 minutes 3 Over 30 minutes 7
16 – 20 minutes 4
Q12a When you do your main food and grocery shopping at………………………. do you or your
household usually visit any other shops/service outlets in the same area as part of
that trip?
Yes 1
No 2
IF YES ASK Q12b TO Q12d - OTHERS GO TO Q13
Q12b Which town/centre is this?
(Write In)
Job No: GW/05/254
Q12c And do you drive to the other shops/service outlets, or walk or use another form
of transport?
Drive 1 Taxi 4
Walk 2 Other Form of Transport 5
Bus 3
Q12d And what other shops/services do you normally visit (MULTI-CODE)
Financial outlets (eg Banks, Building Societies) 1
Professional Services (eg Solicitors, Accountants) 2
Post Office 3
Cafe/Restaurant/Pub/Take-Away 4
Specialist food shops (eg Baker, Greengrocer, Butcher) 5
Chemist 6
Newsagents/Confectioners/Tobacconists 7
Fashion Shops (eg for clothing, footwear etc) 8
Charity Shops 9
Department/Variety Store 10
Other type of shop (WRITE IN)
CLOSE INTERVIEW - COMPLETE CLASSIFICATION
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 5
Shopper Survey
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 5A
Survey Methodology and Sample
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
__________
The Shoppers Survey
• In order to ensure that the health checks of Craigavon, Lurgan and Portadown are as
comprehensive and robust as possible, street surveys of shoppers in these town centres (one of the
indicators of PPS 5 is ‘customer views’) have been undertaken. Interviews were conducted face to
face, using a structured questionnaire. Interviewing locations were selected in order to try and to
ensure that shoppers would have completed their shopping prior to their interview. This approach
yields data on actual shopper expenditure etc, rather than just buying intentions. The table below
details the location, date and number of interviews undertaken. Overall across the three town
centres we undertook 750 shopper interviews.
Number of
Centre Survey Dates
Interviews
Craigavon 250 9/11/12/13/14th May
Lurgan 250 9/11/12/13/14th May
Portadown 250 9/11/12/13/14th May
Total 750 -
Note
Interviews were undertaken between 10am-4pm each day on a Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
and Saturday.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 5B
Key Results
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE i: AGE OF RESPONDENTS (%)
Years Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
16 - 24 25 30 25 27
25-34 19 15 28 21
35-44 15 17 18 17
45-54 16 11 14 13
55-64 13 10 13 12
65+ 11 16 2 10
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE ii: GENDER OF RESPONDENTS (%)
Gender Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Female 38 43 27 36
Male 62 56 73 64
Total 100 99 100 100
TABLE iii: SOCIAL GRADE OF RESPONDENTS (%)
Social Grade Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
A 2 3 3 3
B 11 7 8 8
C1 25 21 28 25
C2 17 18 47 27
D 18 13 7 13
E 28 36 7 24
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 1: AVERAGE COMPOSITION OF RESPONDENTS' PARTY (number of people)
Composition Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Female adults 1.29 1.13 1.31 1.24
Male adults 0.49 0.64 0.47 0.53
Children under 16 years 0.25 0.19 0.15 0.20
Total 2.03 1.96 1.93 1.97
TABLE 2: MAIN REASON FOR VISITING TOWN (%)
Reason Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Shopping for goods 74 61 73 70
Just browsing/window shopping 15 15 10 13
Work here 4 7 4 5
Meet friends or relatives 3 1 5 3
Pay bills/visit services 1 3 3 2
Visit doctor/optician/chemist/
1 1 2 1
dentist
School/college - 10 2 4
Other 3 2 1 2
Total 100 100 100 100
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 3a: CRAIGAVON - CONSUMERS PURCHASING PATTERNS (%)
Before Visiting Craigavon After Visiting Craigavon
A B C
Goods Categories
Goods Types Intended to Buy Goods Types Actually Bought Conversion Rate (=B/A x100)
(%) (%) (%)
Leisure Goods 8 8 100
Clothing 54 49 91
Catering services 3 3 100
Household textiles/ soft furnishings 3 3 100
Footwear 13 11 85
Chemist goods 7 6 86
Food to take home 48 46 96
DIY/hardware/garden products 2 3 150
Jewellery 1 1 100
Electrical goods/ Hi-fi 1 1 100
None of these/Purchased
2 5 250
nothing today
TABLE 3b: LURGAN - CONSUMERS PURCHASING PATTERNS (%)
Before Visiting Lurgan After Visiting Lurgan
A B C
Goods Categories
Goods Types Intended to Buy Goods Types Actually Bought Conversion Rate (=B/A x100)
(%) (%) (%)
Chemist goods 3 3 100
Catering services 6 8 133
Food to take home 47 45 96
Financial services/pay bills 1 1 100
DIY/hardware/garden products 2 1 50
Household textiles/ soft furnishings 3 3 100
Clothing 40 39 98
Leisure Goods 3 3 100
Electrical goods/ Hi-fi 1 1 100
Footwear 5 5 100
Carpets/furniture 1 1 100
None of these/Purchased nothing
13 14 108
today
TABLE 3c: PORTADOWN - CONSUMERS PURCHASING PATTERNS (%)
Before Visiting Portadown After Visiting Portadown
A B C
Goods Categories
Goods Types Intended to Buy Goods Types Actually Bought Conversion Rate (=B/A x100)
(%) (%) (%)
Carpets/furniture 2 1 50
Household textiles/ soft furnishings 4 3 75
Footwear 17 13 76
Jewellery 2 3 150
Leisure Goods 25 28 112
Electrical goods/ Hi-fi 3 4 133
DIY/hardware/garden products 2 3 150
Household services 3 3 100
Leisure services 1 1 100
Financial services/pay bills 2 2 100
Clothing 33 25 76
Food to take home 67 67 100
Chemist goods 14 19 136
Catering services 11 17 155
None of these/Purchased nothing
1 1 100
today
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 4a: THE MAIN CENTRE RESPONDENTS USE FOR NON FOOD SHOPPING (%)
Centre Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Craigavon- Rushmere Shopping
45 61 6 37
Centre
Craigavon- Rushmere Retail Park 2 4 12 6
Lurgan-Town Centre 10 9 6 8
Portadown- Town Centre 10 5 59 25
Armagh 4 0 4 3
Banbridge 3 0 2 2
Belfast- City Centre 7 4 2 4
Belfast- Park Centre 0 1 0 1
Belfast- Connswater 0 1 - 0
Belfast- Dairy Farm Centre 1 0 - 1
Belfast- Other 0 1 - 0
Lisburn 6 8 4 6
Newry 2 1 1 2
None in particular/ Varies - - 2 1
Other 8 2 1 4
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 4b: AVERAGE % OF SPEND ON NON-FOOD SHOPPING IN THIS TOWN CENTRE
Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
% spend on non-food 51.47 40.13 61.52 50.93
TABLE 4c: REASONS FOR CHOOSING MAIN CENTRE FOR NON FOOD SHOPPING (%)
Reason Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Close to home/ convenient/east to
78 66 83 76
get to/ live here
Good choice/ variety of stores/
40 16 67 41
less choice elsewhere
Good quality of shops 23 38 11 24
Better range of large multiple
17 3 6 8
shops
Cheap prices/ value for money 9 1 3 4
Because of a specific store 34 1 6 14
Close to work 4 4 34 14
Habit/ always shopped there 4 - 1 2
Easy/ plenty of parking 10 0 7 6
Cheap/ free parking 7 1 5 4
Good/ cheap public transport 1 0 1 1
Don't know/ no reply/ no particular
4 - 5 3
reason
Note: respondents were asked to give a maximum of 3 responses and therefore columns sum to more than 100%. Responses relate to a range
of named centres for each interview location
TABLE 5a: AVERAGE PARTY SPEND IN TOWN CENTRE (£s)
Goods Type Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Food to take home 18.14 9.64 17.90 15.22
Non - food items 29.16 17.55 17.22 21.29
Catering 2.06 1.16 1.73 1.65
Other Services 2.26 0.47 0.16 0.96
Total 51.17 28.83 37.00 39.00
Note: The total does not always equal the sum of the individual expenditure categories because the number of respondents within each category
is different. Figures relate to all parties whether they spent or not.
SHOPPER SURVEY
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 5b: SPEND PER PARTY ON DAY OF INTERVIEW BY CLASSIFICATION DATA (£)
Belfast Ballyclare Bangor Carrickfergus Carryduff Holywood Lisburn
Classification
Average Average Spent Average Average Spent Average Average Spent Average Average Spent Average Average Spent Average Average Spent Average Average Spent
Spend by Spenders Spend by Spenders Spend by Spenders Spend by Spenders Spend by Spenders Spend by Spenders Spend by Spenders
Sex
Male 44.05 63.69 35.57 38.46 15.79 18.19 171.53 175.38 21.76 24.78 10.43 12.82 35.55 40.29
Female 50.34 62.87 38.14 41.77 31.05 34.46 37.69 37.69 25.90 27.72 13.85 15.83 40.65 44.58
Age
16 - 34 37.94 53.85 37.15 41.56 25.53 27.82 44.19 44.19 23.26 28.67 11.38 15.05 32.86 37.46
35-54 75.44 85.12 40.61 43.84 30.05 32.70 123.68 123.68 21.25 22.41 14.33 17.05 56.35 61.39
55+ 36.05 46.10 33.12 35.65 29.61 35.33 25.68 26.09 28.00 28.94 12.51 13.22 30.40 32.25
Social Grade
ABC1 61.35 76.83 40.05 43.74 32.78 36.31 115.29 115.29 27.74 29.13 11.77 14.31 41.52 46.71
C2 35.10 54.67 33.20 35.32 29.11 31.95 52.35 53.59 24.03 26.68 18.16 20.82 38.72 43.71
DE 44.49 53.55 36.59 41.30 21.69 24.75 25.61 25.61 19.14 22.21 9.72 10.27 31.89 33.46
Day
Mon - Wed 50.22 62.69 32.18 32.56 29.51 30.39 85.20 85.20 23.98 26.64 12.51 14.79 34.23 41.08
Fri- Sat 46.94 63.49 43.15 51.21 26.77 32.72 49.78 50.28 24.93 26.83 13.21 15.22 43.26 44.67
Note: Average spend is the average expenditure per party for all interviewees. Average expenditure by spenders is the average spend for only those parties that spent something.
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 6: FREQUENCY WITH WHICH TOWN CENTRES ARE VISITED (%)
Frequency Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Everyday / almost every day 10 29 8 16
2-3 times a week 28 27 50 35
Once a week 30 19 28 26
2-3 times a month 5 8 6 6
Once a month 9 7 3 7
Less than once a month 13 7 3 8
Never 5 2 1 3
Don't know / no reply - - - -
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 7a: ORIGIN OF TRIP (%)
Origin Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Home 88 79 83 83
Work 4 11 11 9
School/college 1 - 2 1
Shopping - elsewhere 3 10 3 5
Home of friend/ relative 1 - 1 0
Hospital/ Doctor 1 - 1 0
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 7b : (IF 'HOME' AT Q7a) DISTANCE OF JOURNEY FROM HOME (%)
Distance (miles) Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
0 - 0.9 miles 8 15 4 9
1 - 1.9 miles 26 18 21 22
2 - 4.9 miles 22 23 33 25
5 - 9.9 miles 14 11 28 17
10 - 14.9 miles 9 7 5 7
15 miles or over 20 26 8 19
Don't know/ no reply 1 - 2 1
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 7c : (IF HOME AT Q7a) TIME OF JOURNEY FROM HOME TO TOWN (%)
Duration (mins) Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
0-5 11 11 6 10
5.1-10 26 18 18 21
10.1-15 20 12 50 26
15.1-30 11 8 17 12
30.1-60 11 1 6 6
Over 1 hour 2 2 2 2
Don't know / No reply 18 49 3 24
Total 100 100 100 100
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 8a: RESPONDENT'S MODE OF TRANSPORT TO TOWN CENTRE (%)
Transport Mode Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Car - driver 54 37 55 48
Car - passenger 19 21 23 21
Walked 7 19 16 14
Bus 16 16 4 12
Taxi 2 5 1 3
Train 0 1 - 0
Cycle 1 1 0 1
Motorcycle 0 1 - 0
Coach 2 1 1 1
Other - 0 - 0
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 8b : RESPONDENT'S MODE OF TRANSPORT BY LENGTH OF JOURNEY FOR ALL CENTRES (%)
15
0 - 0.9 1 - 1.9 miles
Transport Mode 2 - 4.9 miles 5 - 9.9 miles 10 - 14.9 miles
miles miles or
over
Car 35 37 43 53 55 57
Car - passenger 5 11 9 16 27 22
Bus 2 14 31 21 12 17
Train 0 0 1 2 7 4
Cycle 1 1 1 0 0 0
Walked 54 31 9 1 0 0
Taxi 3 7 6 6 0 1
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
TABLE 9 : DURATION OF STAY IN TOWN (%)
Duration (mins) Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Less than 30 mins 10 17 4 11
30-59 mins 38 20 19 26
1 hour - 1 hour 29 mins 28 36 25 30
1 hour 30 mins - 1 hour 59 mins 9 5 31 15
2 hours - 2 hours 29 mins 9 12 14 12
2 hours 30 mins - 2 hours 59 mins 0 2 2 2
3 hours or more 5 7 4 5
Not Shopping Today - - - -
Total 100 100 100 100
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 10a : CRAIGAVON RESPONDENT'S SHOPPING TRIP PATTERNS (%)
Location(s) Where Goods are Normally Purchased
A B C D E
Craigavon Somewhere Balance in
Goods Categories Craigavon
and else not Don’t Buy Favour of
Only
Elsewhere Craigavon (%) Craigavon
(%)
(%) (%) (A-C) (%)
Food to take home 51 14 26 8 25
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products 45 14 29 13 16
CD’s / Tapes / Records 47 11 32 10 15
Ladies and Men’s Clothing 43 25 30 2 13
Jewellery / Gifts 46 16 34 4 12
Health Beauty and Chemist's
46 14 35 0 11
Goods
Children’s Clothing 32 13 24 31 8
Large Electrical Goods 36 16 35 13 1
Shoes 37 24 37 2 0
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s
31 16 36 17 -5
and Fabrics
Furniture & Carpets 22 11 49 18 -27
TABLE 10b : LURGAN RESPONDENT'S SHOPPING TRIP PATTERNS (%)
Location(s) Where Goods are Normally Purchased
A B C D E
Lurgan Somewhere Balance in
Goods Categories Lurgan
and else not Don’t Buy Favour of
Only
Elsewhere Lurgan (%) Lurgan
(%)
(%) (%) (A-C) (%)
Food to take home 29 40 29 2 0
Children’s Clothing 10 48 28 13 -18
Ladies and Men’s Clothing 12 57 30 0 -18
Health Beauty and Chemist's 11 58 30 1 -19
CD’s / Tapes / Records 11 58 30 2 -19
Jewellery / Gifts 11 57 30 2 -19
Shoes 11 58 31 1 -20
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products 11 52 32 5 -21
Large Electrical Goods 11 50 34 5 -23
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s
10 50 33 6 -23
and Fabrics
Furniture & Carpets 11 47 36 6 -25
TABLE 10c : PORTADOWN RESPONDENT'S SHOPPING TRIP PATTERNS (%)
Location(s) Where Goods are Normally Purchased
A B C D E
Portadown Somewhere Balance in
Goods Categories Portadown
and else not Don’t Buy Favour of
Only
Elsewhere Portadown (%) Portadown
(%)
(%) (%) (A-C) (%)
Food to take home 32 58 7 2 25
Shoes 18 75 6 0 12
CD’s / Tapes / Records 14 75 7 4 7
Ladies and Men’s Clothing 14 76 9 1 5
Children’s Clothing 8 67 5 20 3
Jewellery / Gifts 12 71 10 7 2
Health Beauty and Chemist's
17 74 21 1 -4
Goods
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s
8 54 19 19 -11
and Fabrics
Large Electrical Goods 6 34 36 24 -30
Furniture & Carpets 7 31 37 25 -30
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products 8 51 49 21 -41
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 11 : RESPONDENT'S DESCRIPTION OF MIX OF TOWN CENTRE RETAIL OFFER (%)
Description Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Too many small shops / not
1 38 12 17
enough large stores
About right 97 56 82 78
Too many large shops / not
3 6 6 5
enough small shops
Don't know / no reply - - 1 0
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 12 : RESPONDENT'S DESCRIPTION OF QUALITY OF TOWN CENTRE RETAIL OFFER (%)
Description Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Too posh/ up market 4 1 3 3
Fine as it is 94 88 74 86
Too cheap / down market 1 11 23 12
Don't know / no reply - - 0 0
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 13 : RESPONDENT'S DESCRIPTION OF LAYOUT OF TOWN CENTRE (%)
Description Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Too compact / can get congested
2 37 20 20
at times
Fine as it is 97 62 60 73
Too spread out / distances
- 1 19 7
between shops are too long
Don't know / no reply 1 - 0 1
Total 100 100 100 100
TABLE 14 : RESPONDENT'S THREE MOST IMPORTANT SHOPS IN TOWN CENTRE (%)
Retailer Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Debenhams 31 10 - 15
TK Max 13 9 1 8
Dunnes Stores 13 5 26 15
Tesco 23 28 26 26
Woolworths - 13 13 8
Boots 2 9 12 7
DZ - - 6 2
B&Q 9 1 - 4
Homebase 5 1 - 2
New Look/ Mark 1 3 3 6 4
Next 3 - 2 2
Easons 4 5 2 4
Topshop/ Topman 6 4 8 6
River Island 7 4 1 4
Bargain Books/ Book shop 4 1 - 2
Dorothy Perkins 0 6 4 3
NV 2 1 2 2
Peacocks/ Primark/ Bon Marche 2 2 2 2
HMV 10 6 - 6
Other music store (e.g. Caroline,
4 3 2 3
Music Studio)
Sweeneys / Bairds / Primrose /
0 1 5 2
Other Chemist / Optician
Argos 1 0 7 3
Semi Chem - 0 5 2
Mothercare/ Adams 2 - 4 2
H&M 4 2 - 2
Superdrug 1 3 4 2
Shoe Shop (e.g. Dolcis) 2 2 5 3
Specialist food store (e.g. baker,
- 3 4 2
greengrocer, butcher)
Sainsbury 12 5 1 7
Iceland - 6 1 2
Other national fashion store
2 1 5 2
(e.g.Kookai)
Other 12 40 28 26
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 15: TOP 3 RETAILERS RESPONDENTS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN THE TOWN CENTRE (%)
Retailer Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Primark / Peacocks / New Look 4 11 9 8
Topshop/Topman 2 11 0 4
Next 11 0 0 4
River Island - 4 3 2
M&S 4 5 3 4
Other Named Clothes Store
3 0 2 2
(Oasis, Warehouse etc)
Other 12 10 4 9
Don't know/ can't think of any/
8 6 36 16
no reply
None/ quite happy 49 46 32 42
TABLE 16a : FACILITIES RESPONDENTS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IMPROVED IN THE TOWN CENTRE (%)
Facility Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Wider choice / Variety of shops 13 40 52 35
Better quality stores / goods 3 36 52 30
More/better places to eat or drink 7 8 49 21
More/better toilets 3 7 39 16
More/better parking facilities 1 19 28 16
Less traffic congestion 1 1 45 16
More shops open in the evenings 1 1 39 14
More shops open on Sundays 0 1 39 14
Cleaner Air / Less traffic pollution - 2 37 13
A bigger/better weekly market - 2 35 12
More street entertainment / More
0 1 33 12
things going on
Better cleanliness/make the centre
- 3 29 11
tidier
Better public transport - 4 25 10
More pedestrianisation - 1 30 10
Make centre more attractive (e.g.
better shop fronts, planting, paving 0 1 24 8
etc.)
Better security/make the centre
0 1 23 8
safer
More/better information displays - 1 20 7
More/better signage - 1 19 7
None of these / Don't know 75 46 7 42
Note: Columns sum to more than 100% because respondents mentioned a range of facilities
TABLE 16b : SINGLE FACILITY RESPONDENTS WOULD MOST LIKE TO SEE IMPROVED IN THE TOWN CENTRE (%)
Facility Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
Wider choice / Variety of shops 12 18 14 15
Better quality stores / goods 1 18 22 13
More/better places to eat or drink 7 3 7 6
More/better parking facilities 1 11 4 5
More/better toilets 3 2 4 3
Less traffic congestion 0 0 8 3
More street entertainment / More
- - 6 2
things going on
More shops open in the evenings 1 - 6 2
A bigger/better weekly market - - 7 2
More shops open on Sundays - - 7 2
Better cleanliness/make the centre
- 1 2 1
tidier
Better security/make the centre
0 - 3 1
safer
Make centre more attractive (e.g. 0 - 1 1
Cleaner Air / Less traffic pollution - 1 3 1
Better public transport - 1 1 0
More pedestrianisation - - 0 0
More/better signage - - 1 0
None of these / don't know 74 44 5 41
Total 100 100 101 100
SHOPPER SURVEY
November 2005 Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries Retail Designations Study
Department of Environment, Planning Service
TABLE 16c : THE SINGLE IMPROVEMENT WHICH WOULD MAKE RESPONDENTS VISIT TOWN
CENTRE MORE OFTEN FOR SHOPPING (%)
Improvement Craigavon Lurgan Portadown Average
None / quite happy 78 55 25 53
More stores (general) / fewer
1 10 2 4
banks
Better / more / easier / car parking - 5 1 2
More entertainment / livelier - - 5 2
More places to eat / drink 4 1 2 2
More choice / variety of stores - 3 0 1
Better quality of stores/ goods 0 3 - 1
Improve appearance / clean up
- 2 - 1
town centre / more plants
More / better toilets 0 1 0 1
More pedestrianisation / less traffic
- 2 - 1
/ traffic free centre
More / better public transport - 1 0 1
More stores for older / larger
1 0 0 1
women
More seating 1 1 - 1
More Clothes Stores 0 1 2 1
Other specific store / type of store - 1 - 0
Longer / later opening hours - - 1 0
More stores for young people /
- 1 - 0
students
Debenhams/ Selfridges/
1 0 - 0
Department Store
None / don't know / can't think of
6 3 49 19
any
Other 5 7 13 8
Total 100 97 100 99
SHOPPER SURVEY
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 5C
Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Job No: GW/05/254
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
BEACON RESEARCH
Suite 3, The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs. PR3 1YB
Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336
DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PLANNING SERVICE
SHOPPER SURVEY ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (May 2005)
Name:
Address:
Postcode:
C1 Age: 1
6-24 1 C2 Sex: Male 1
25-34 2 Female 2
35-44 3
45-54 4 C3 Status: Single/Widowed/Divorced: 1
55-64 5 Married/living with partner: 2
65 + 6
C4 Do you have the use of a car/van for shopping? Yes 1
No 2
C5 What is the occupation of the chief wage earner in your household?
Now Assess Social Grade
Occupation A 1
B 2
Rank/Status C1 3
C2 4
No. of Employees D 5
E 6
Qualifications
C6 Day of the week C7 Town
Monday 1
Tuesday2 Craigavon 1
Wednesday 3 Lurgan 2
Thursday 4 Portadown 3
Friday 5
Saturday 6
Interviewer Signature: Date:
Job No: GW/05/254
Good morning/afternoon, I am doing some research on shopping facilities in this Town
Centre today on behalf of The Department of the Environment, Planning Service and I
would like to ask you a few questions.
Can I ask you first of all, have you finished your visit this Town Centre today?
Yes 1
No 2
And do you live in Northern Ireland?
Yes 1
No 2
IF YES - CONTINUE WITH INTERVIEW
Q1 How many people, including yourself, are in your party visiting this Town
Centre today? (WRITE IN)
Adult Females
Adult Males
Children Under 16
Total
Q2 What is your main reason for visiting Town Centre today? (SINGLE CODE)
Shopping for goods 1
Work here 2
Meet friends or relatives 3
Just browsing/window shopping 4
School or college 5
Pay bills/visit services 6
Visit doctor/dentist/optician 7
Other (WRITE IN)
ASK ALL SHOPPING FOR GOODS AT Q2 - OTHERS GO TO Q4a
Job No: GW/05/254
Q3a Before you came to this Town Centre today, which items, if any, on this list
(SHOW CARD A) did you or anyone in your party intend to shop for?
Q3b And which items, if any, on this list, did you or your party actually purchase
during your visit today? (MULTI CODE)
RECORD ANSWERS IN GRID BELOW
Q3a Q3b
Food to take home 1 1
Clothing 2 2
Footwear 3 3
Leisure Goods (e.g. Books, Tapes/CDs, Videos, Toys) 4 4
Jewellery 5 5
Carpets/Furniture 6 6
Electrical Goods/Hi-Fi 7 7
Household Textiles/Soft Furnishings 8 8
DIY/Hardware/Garden Products 9 9
Chemists Goods 10 10
Household Services(Hairdresser, Dry Cleaners, Laundrettes) 11 11
Catering Services (Cafes, Takeaways, Pubs, Wine Bars, Restaurants etc) 12 12
Leisure Services (Travel Agents, Betting Shops, Video Shops etc.) 13 13
Financial Services (Banks, Building Societies, Post Office) 14 14
None of These/Purchased nothing today 15 15
Job No: GW/05/254
Q4a Which is your main City, Town or Retail Centre for NON-FOOD shopping
(i.e. shopping for clothing, footwear and household goods etc) - SINGLE
CODE
Craigavon – Rushmere Shopping Ctr 1 Cookstown 19
Craigavan – Rushmere Retail Park 2 Forestside / Galwally 20
Lurgan – Town Centre 3 Glengormley 21
Portadown – Town Centre 4 Hillsborough 22
Armagh 5 Holywood 23
Antrim 6 Junction One Outlet Centre 24
Banbridge 7 Lisburn 25
Bangor 8 Larne 26
Belfast – City Centre 9 Newry 27
Belfast – Westwood Centre 10 Newtownabbey – Abbey Centre 28
Belfast – Kennedy Centre 11 Newtownabbey – Northcott Centre 29
Belfast – Park Centre 12 Newtown Abbey – Other 30
Belfast – Yorkgate 13 Newtownards – Town Centre 31
Belfast – Connswater 14 Sprucefield Shopping Centre 32
Belfast – Dairy Farm Centre 15 Other (WRITE IN)
Belfast – Other 16 None in particular/Varies 33
Carrickfergus 17 DK/Cant remember 34
Carryduff 18
Q4b Excluding mail order and shopping over the Internet, what proportion or
percentage of your total NON-FOOD expenditure would you say that you
currently spend here, in this Town Centre? (WRITE IN)
%
Q4c Why do you choose…………... as your main NON-FOOD centre? (List up to 3
answers)
Close to home/convenient/easy to get to 1 Good quality shops 6
Close to work 2 Cheap prices/Value for money 7
Good choice/Variety of stores 3 Good/Cheap Public Transport 8
Better range of large multiple stores 4 Easy parking/Plenty of parking 9
Because of a specific store 5 Cheap/Free parking 10
Habit / always shopped there 11
Other (Write In) _____________________________________
Q5 How much in total has your party spent today on goods and services in this
Town Centre today?
READ OUT £ SPENT NOTHING REFUSED
Food to Take Home X Y
Non Food Items X Y
Catering (Restaurant, Café, Pub) X Y
Other Services X Y
Total X Y
Job No: GW/05/254
Q6 And how often do you visit this Town Centre for your shopping? (Any
shopping, including food)
Frequency of Visit
Every Day/Almost Every Day 1
2-3 Times a Week 2
Once a Week 3
2-3 Times a Month 4
Once a Month 5
Less Than Once a Month 6
Never 7
Q7a Have you come to this Town Centre today direct from home, from work or
shopping elsewhere?
Home 1 Q7b
Work 2 Q8
Shopping elsewhere (specify) 3 Q8
Other (Specify) 4 Q8
IF FROM HOME - OTHERS GO TO Q8
Q7b How many miles have you travelled to reach this Town Centre today? And
how long has your journey taken?
MILES MINUTES
0 - 0.9 1 0-5 1
1 - 1.9 2 5.1 -10 2
2 - 4.9 3 10.1 -15 3
5 - 9.9 4 15.1 - 30 4
10 -14.9 5 30.1 - 60 5
15 miles or over 6 Over 1 hour 6
ASK ALL
Q8 How did you travel to this Town Centre today?
Car Driver 1 Bicycle 6
Car Passenger 2 Motorcycle 7
Bus 3 Walked 8
Coach 4 Taxi 9
Train 5 Other 10
Job No: GW/05/254
Q9 How long have you spent in this Town Centre today?
Less than 30 minutes 1
30 minutes - 59 minutes 2
1 hour - 1 hour 29 minutes 3
1 hour 30 minutes - 1 hour 59 minutes 4
2 hours - 2 hours 29 minutes 5
2 hours 30 minutes - 2 hours 59 minutes 6
3 hours or more 7
Q10 For each of the product categories I am going to read out, please tell me
which of the phrases on this card best describes where you would normally
purchase this product (SHOW CARD B)
READ OUT This This Town Somewhere Don’t Main Town
Town Centre else not this Buy Centre
Centre and Town mentioned at
Elsewhere Centre 2 or 3
(WRITE IN)
Food to take home 1 2 3 4
Ladies and Men’s Clothing 1 2 3 4
Children’s Clothing 1 2 3 4
Shoes 1 2 3 4
Household Textiles, Furnishing’s and
1 2 3 4
Fabrics
Large Electrical Goods 1 2 3 4
Furniture & Carpets 1 2 3 4
Health Beauty and Chemists Goods 1 2 3 4
CD’s / Tapes / Records 1 2 3 4
Jewellery / Gifts 1 2 3 4
DIY / Hardware / Garden Products 1 2 3 4
Q11 From what you know about …………………… how would you describe the shopping in
this Town Centre, in terms of the balance between large and small shops?
READ OUT
Too many small (independent) shops/not enough large (multiple) stores 1
Too many large (multiple) stores/not enough small (independent) shops 2
About right 3
Job No: GW/05/254
Q12 Do you think, in general, that shops are:
READ OUT
Too Posh / Up Market 1
Fine as they are 2
Too cheap / Down Market 3
Q13 And, how would you describe the layout of this Town centre?
READ OUT
Too compact / can get congested at times 1
Fine as it is 2
Too spread out / distances between shops are too long 3
Q14 Which shops in this Town Centre, if any, are the most important to you?
(Write in up to 3)
1.
2.
3.
Q15 Are there any particular retailers that you would like to see in this Town
Centre, which are not here at present, or are you quite happy? (WRITE IN
UP TO THREE)
None / Quite happy 1
None / DK / can’t think of any 2
Other (Write In)
SHOW CARD C
Job No: GW/05/254
Q16a Which of these other facilities in this Town Centre do you think needs
improving. (PROBE: ANY OTHERS)
Q16b And which ONE would be the most important improvement? (ONE CODE
ONLY)
GOOD IDEA MOST WANTED
16a 16b
Wider choice / Variety of shops 1 1
Better quality stores / goods 2 2
More/better places to eat or drink 3 3
More/better toilets 4 4
More/better parking facilities 5 5
Better public transport 6 6
Better cleanliness/make the centre tidier 7 7
Cleaner Air / Less traffic pollution 8 8
Better security/make the centre safer 9 9
A bigger/better weekly market 10 10
Make centre more attractive (e.g. better shop 11 11
fronts, planting, paving etc.)
More/better signage 12 12
More/better information displays 13 13
Less traffic congestion 14 14
More pedestrianisation 15 15
More street entertainment / More things going on 16 16
More shops open on Sundays 17 17
More shops open in the evenings 18 18
None of these / DK 19 19
Q16c What single change or improvement, if any, could be made to this Town
Centre, to make you visit it more often for shopping?
None / Quite happy 1
None / DK / can’t think of any 2
Other (Write In)
COMPLETE CLASSIFICATION - THANK RESPONDENT
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 6
Retailer Survey
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 6A
Survey Methodology and Sample
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________
The Retailer Survey
• A detailed knowledge of occupiers is vital in making any reasoned assessment about the existing
and future health of a town centre; for example, the productivity of current floor space and the
potential for existing stores to soak up some of the growth in consumer expenditure (more spending
doesn’t always equate to a need for more retail floor space). The retailer survey also produces hard
data on recent, present and future retail trading- performance (i.e. changing retail sales and profits
in the form of an index), the extent of investment in staff, premises and merchandise and intentions
to relocate or close down.
• Professional interviewers visited a sample of 200 retail shops in the three town centres, as detailed
in the table below. The interviewers asked to speak with the shop manager or owner (if unavailable
they called back) and explained the survey to them, arranging a date for their return to collect the
completed questionnaire. If the form was not properly completed, the interviewer offered to sit
down and run through it with them. The questionnaire was accompanied by a covering letter from
Colliers CRE.
• Overall, we achieved positive responses from 110 stores, representing a response rate of 55%. The
largest number of completed questionnaires came from retailers in Portadown (41), but in
percentage terms Craigavon generated the best response (75%). We are grateful for the help given
to us by consultees in encouraging traders to respond to our survey.
Number of
Number of
Completed Response Rate
Centre Questionnaires
Questionnaires (%)
Delivered
Received
Craigavon 40 30 75
Lurgan 80 39 49
Portadown 80 41 51
Total 200 110 55
Note
Questionnaires were delivered during the week beginning 3rd May and collected by 14th May 2005.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 6B
Copy of Covering Letter and Information Sheet
Your Ref
Our Ref R&C/RAD//Craigavon05
Date April 2005
Direct Line 020 7344 6872
Direct Fax 020 7344 6984
Mobile 07767 873316
rdoidge@collierscre.co.uk
Dear Sir/Madam
Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Plan 2010
– Retail Study
The DoE Planning Service has appointed Colliers CRE, a leading firm of property consultants, to
undertake a study of the retail sector within the Craigavon Borough to inform the Craigavon Town
Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Plan 2010.
An integral part of our work will be an assessment of the actual retail and economic performance of
the principal town centres in the Craigavon Borough. I believe that an important part of achieving this
is to seek the views of the retailers themselves. The information which we hope to obtain is key to the
successful completion of the retail study, which will inform the preparation of the Plan.
Information provided by you and other retailers in the course of this survey will be treated in the
strictest confidence and no completed questionnaires will be made public. It should be noted that
Colliers CRE are responsible for the distribution and collection of the questionnaires. The Planning
Service will not have access to individual questionnaires that are returned to us.
I would be grateful therefore, if you could find the time to complete the enclosed questionnaire. If you
have any queries, please could you contact Louise Harper of Colliers CRE on 020 7344 6614.
Yours faithfully
Dr Richard Doidge
Head of Research & Consultancy
Colliers CRE
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES AND RETAIL
DESIGNATIONS PLAN 2010
RETAIL STUDY
Survey of Retailers
Information Sheet
Survey carried out on behalf of
The Department of the Environment – Planning Service
Purpose
To collect information on the recent, current and future retail trading performance of the town centre
as a whole. The data will be used to inform the preparation of the Plan.
Sample
Approximately 50% of all retail shops in the Craigavon area are being asked to complete the
questionnaire on a random sample basis.
Confidentiality
The survey is being carried out by a team of professional market researchers. All replies will be
treated in the strictest confidence and will be aggregated with many other responses in order to
provide a broad overview of retailing trends and attitudes in the town centre.
Availability of Data
It is intended that the findings of the study will be made available to the Planning Service.
Contacts
If you have any questions regarding the survey, please do not hesitate to contact
Dr Richard Doidge
Study Director
Colliers CRE
9 Marylebone Lane
LONDON
W1U 1HL
Tel: 020 7344 6872
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 6C
Key Results
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 6D
Copy of Survey Questionnaire
Job No: GW/05/254 CENTRE CODE
STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
BEACON RESEARCH
Suite 3, The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs PR3 1YB
Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336
DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PLANNING SERVICE
RETAILER SURVEY ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (May 2005)
We have been commissioned to undertake an important and confidential study of retailers in this area.
We would be very grateful for your co-operation and assure you that any answers you give will be
treated in total confidence and will be aggregated with many others to provide an overview of retailer
trends and attitudes in this Town Centre. Our interviewer will leave this questionnaire for you to
complete, and will return to collect it in a few days. Thank you for your help.
Q1 What type of shop are you? (TICK BOX)
a) Shop selling mainly convenience goods (e.g. Foods, Groceries, Drinks,
Newspapers and Confectionery) 1
b) Shop selling mainly comparison goods (e.g. Clothing, Footwear,
Household goods and any kind of non-food products) 2
c) Service use (e.g. Hairdresser, Travel Agent, Post Office, Dry Cleaners,
Take-Away and Undertakers) 3
Q2 If possible, please give the actual net sales area of your premises in sq ft?
If you do not know the actual figure, please indicate the most likely size band?
a) Under 500 sq ft overall sales area 1
b) 500-1000 sq ft overall sales area 2
c) 1001-2000 sq ft overall sales area 3
d) Over 2000 sq ft 4
Q3 Is your shop part of a:
a) National multiple chain 1
b) Regional multiple chain 2
c) An independent/individual shop 3
Job No: GW/05/254
Q4 (i) How long have you been trading from the current premises?
Less than a year 1
1-2 years 2
3-5 years 3
6-10 years 4
Over 10 years 5
If you have been at your premises for less than a year answer Q4 (ii) - Otherwise go to Q5
Q4 (ii) Did you relocate here from somewhere else in the Town Centre?
Yes 1
No 2
Q5 During the past 12 months (or since you have been at this address if less than 1 year)
has there been a major refurbishment/physical upgrade of your premises?
Refurbished 1
No change 2
Don’t know 3
Q6 During the past 12 months (or since you have been at this address if less than 1 year)
has the floor space of your shop been significantly extended or reduced?
Extended 1
No change 2
Reduced 3
Don’t know 4
Q7 During the past 12 months (or since you have been at this address if less than 1 year)
has the range of products/services sold at your shop been significantly extended or
reduced?
Extended 1
No change 2
Reduced 3
Don’t know 4
Q8 (i) How many people currently work in your shop, including any management or
owners?
Number of People
Full time (30 + hours per week)
Part time (less than 30 hours per week)
Job No: GW/05/254
(ii) Have you experienced any of the following within the past 12 months?
Yes No
a) Higher than anticipated staff turnover
If yes please give the reason why?
b) Higher than anticipated increases in Yes No
wages / salaries
If yes please give the reason why?
c) A need to improve conditions of Yes No
employment
If yes please give the reason why?
Q9 (i) Within the next 12 months, are you likely to stay in your existing
accommodation, relocate or close down your shop?
a) Remain in your existing unit/accommodation 1 Go To Q9(ii)
b) Relocate within the Town Centre 2 Go To Q9(iii)
c) Relocate elsewhere 3 Go To Q9(iii)
d) Close down the shop 4 Go To Q9(iv)
(ii) If a) at Q9 (i), do you have any firm plans to do any of the following? (Tick as
many as are relevant)
Refurbish the premises 1
Extend the sales space of the premises 2
Reduce the sales space of the premises 3
Increase the range of merchandise/services 4
Decrease the range of merchandise/services 5
Increase the number of jobs 6
Decrease the number of jobs 7
None of these 8
(iii) If b) or c) at Q9 (i), what is the main reason for relocating the shop?
Need bigger premises 1
Need better-located premises 2
Need smaller/more economic premises 3
Other reason - please specify
Job No: GW/05/254
(iv) If d) at Q9 (i), why is the shop closing down?
Lease expires 1
Poor trading conditions 2
Retiring or moving 3
Rents too high 4
Other reason - please specify
Q10 Compared to other outlets in your chain, how is your shop in this Town Centre
currently performing in terms of sales/turnover?
a) Above average chain sales performance 1
b) Average chain sales level 2
c) Below average chain sales performance 3
d) Not part of a chain 4
Q11 Compared to other outlets in your chain, is your shop in this Town Centre achieving:
a) Above average profitability 1
b) Average profitability 2
c) Below average profitability 3
d) Not part of a chain 4
If you have been in the Town Centre for 12 months or more, please answer Q12, otherwise go
to Q13
Q12 (i) I would now like you to think about your sales and profitability, compared to the
recent past.
If May 2004 (one year ago) = 100% please indicate how this compares to the
current situation by writing in the present levels of Sales and Profitability in the
form of an index (eg if down 10% write 90 or if up 7% write in 107). (Please base
figures on current prices) i.e. including inflation.
May 2004 Now
Sales Turnover 100
Profitability 100
Job No: GW/05/254
(ii) If increase in sales at Q12 (i) please give main reasons why?
( tick up to 3 answers or write in)
There are similar numbers of shoppers around, but they are each spending more 1
There are more shoppers around and they are each spending more 2
There are more shoppers around, and each one is spending is about the same 3
We are attracting a bigger share of sales in this Town Centre although
the overall level of trade in this Town Centre is not increasing 4
Better promotions/pricing 5
Better customer service 6
Have extended the store 7
Have refurbished the store 8
Have increased/changed the range of merchandise 9
This Town Centre is much safer for shoppers than a year ago 10
Other - please specify
(iii) If decrease in sales at Q12 (i) please give main reasons why?
(tick up to 3 answers or write in)
There are similar numbers of shoppers around, but they are each spending less 1
There are fewer shoppers around, and each is spending about the same 2
There are fewer shoppers around and they are each spending less 3
We are attracting a smaller share of sales in this Town Centre although
the overall level of trade in this Town Centre is being maintained 4
Increased competition from new retailers in this Town Centre 5
Inability of shoppers to park outside/close to the shop 6
Increase in competition from other Town or City Centres 7
Increase in competition from out of town shopping 8
More people shopping on the Internet 9
Other - please specify
Q13 (i) Looking to the future, how do you anticipate that your sales/turnover at this shop
will change over the next 12 months?
Increase 1 Go To
Q13(ii)
Remain static 2 Go To Q14
Decrease 3Go To Q13(iii)
Don’t know 4 Go To Q14
(ii) If increase at Q13 (i) - by roughly what percentage do you expect your turnover to
increase over the next 12 months? %
Reason for increase:
Job No: GW/05/254
(iii) If decrease at Q13 (i) - by roughly what percentage do you expect your turnover
to decrease over the next 12 months? %
Reason for decrease:
Q14 At present, how would you best describe the sales performance of your store? (Tick
one box only)
The sales per sq ft is too high / it is causing some operational problems
and affecting our customers (e.g. in-store congestion) 1 Go to Q15(ii)
The sales per sq ft is about right (i.e. there is no evidence of
under or over trading) 2 Go to Q16
The sales per sq ft is too low / I would like to achieve a higher sales density
(better performance) in order to maintain the viability of the shop 3 Go to Q15(i)
If answer 3 to Q14 - Otherwise go to Q15 (ii)
Q15 (i) To accommodate such an increase in sales per sq ft, would you need to do any
of the following?
(Tick all those that apply)
Extend opening hours of the shop 1
Significantly improve / change your product range 2
Other (Write In)
None of these is necessary to boost sales per sq ft significantly 3
If answer 1 to Q14 - Otherwise go to Q16
Q15 (ii) What do you intend to do, if anything, to overcome this problem?
(Tick all those that apply)
Extend the sales area of the shop 1
Relocate to a bigger shop unit 2
Change the merchandise / product range 3
Alter the layout of the shop 4
Other (Write In)
Don’t plan to do anything 5
Q16 How do you rate your premises in this Town Centre against each of the following
criteria?
Criteria Very Good Good Average Poor Very Poor
Pitch 1 2 3 4 5
Standard of Accommodation 1 2 3 4 5
Q17 What is your opinion of this Town Centre’s market positioning in shopping terms?
Too up market 1 Fine as it is 2 Too down market 3
Job No: GW/05/254
Q18a How would you describe this Town Centre’s current shopping space and trading mix?
Too many small (independent) shops/not enough large (multiple) stores 1
About the right mix 2
Too many large (multiple) stores/not enough small (independent) shops 3
Q18b And how would you describe the layout of this Town Centre?
Too compact / can get congested at times 1
Fine as it is 2
Too spread out / distances between shops are too long 3
Q19 Here is a list of different factors, which might affect the success of this Town Centre as
a retail centre. For each one in turn, please tell me:
a) How you rate this Town Centre (CIRCLE ONE ANSWER FOR EACH FACTOR)
b) Whether it is better, worse or the same as it was in May 2004 (one year ago).
a b
Very Quite Neither Quite Very DK Better Same Worse
Good Good good Poor Poor
nor
poor
Rents/Rates 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Availability of parking 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Parking charges 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Traffic Congestion 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Public Transport Services 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Safety/Security for shoppers 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Range of goods available 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Quality of goods available 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Entertainment/Leisure Facilities 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Marketing of the Centre 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
Liveliness/street life/ character 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
of the Centre
Quality/Number of places to eat 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
and drink
General shopping environment 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
/Appearance of Centre
Q20 (i) Which retailers, if any, do you consider are the most important in attracting
shoppers into this Town Centre? (That is, which stores are the main ‘anchors’
please list up to 3.)
1.
2.
3.
Job No: GW/05/254
(ii) And compared to say, five years ago, how do you think the trading performance
of this Town centre has changed?
Has got a lot stronger 1
Has got a little stronger 2
Has stayed about the same 3
Has got a little worse 4
Has got a lot worse 5
Don’t Know / have not been here five years 6
Q21 In planning for the future of this Town Centre, what do you think are the three most
important things listed below? Please tick three boxes only
a) Seek to increase range of national multiple retailer’s 1
b) Seek to increase range of local/speciality retailer’s 2
c) Seek to improve quality of shops 3
d) Improve appearance of the centres streets / open spaces 4
e) Make centre safer / reduce crime & vandalism (e.g. CCTV, Policing,
Lighting etc.) 5
f) Remove/reduce traffic congestion 6
g) Provide more housing in the centre 7
h) Improve frequency of bus services to the centre 8
i) Provide a children’s crèche 9
j) Improve / extend public car parking in the Centre 10
k) Provide better entertainment and leisure, especially in the evening’s 11
l) Improve quality and range of cafes and restaurants 12
m) Improve pedestrian links and facilities throughout the centre 13
n) Improve quality of shop units / retail accommodation 14
o) Encourage/Promote Sunday trading 15
p) Promote/Publicise the attractions of the Centre 16
q) Provide and improve bus facilities in the Centre 17
r) Provide better access / parking facilities for the disabled 18
s) Provide additional toilets 19
t) Repair / Conserve Historic buildings 20
u) Improve air quality / Reduce traffic pollution 21
Other - please specify
Job No: GW/05/254
Q22 Are there any particular retailers that you would like to see locating in this Town Centre
that would improve the retail offer and attraction of the centre to shoppers?
YES 1
NO 2
Q23 If you answered YES at Q22 please specify which ones:-
Q24 Would you be in favour, or not, of additional retail floor space being provided in this
Town Centre to enable new retailers to locate in the Centre?
YES - in favour 1
NO - not in favour 2
Q25a Please think carefully about this Town Centre. Given what you know about other
centres, do you think the present number of vacant units in the Town Centre is
acceptable, or not?
YES 1
NO 2
Q25b If you said no - In what way, if any, does the number of vacant units in the Town Centre
impact upon the trading performance of your own shop? (Write In)
Q26a Given what you know about others Towns, do you think the present number of service
businesses in this Town Centre is acceptable or not?
No - Too high 1
Yes - About right 2
No - Too few 3
Q26b If you said too high - What types of service businesses cause you most concern?
(Please tick all those that apply)
Financial Services (Banks, Building Societies, Estate Agents etc.) 1
Household Services (Hairdressers, Dry Cleaners, Laundrettes etc.) 2
Catering Services (Cafes, Takeaways, Pubs, Wine Bars, Restaurants etc.) 3
Leisure Services (Travel Agents, Betting Shops, Video Shops etc.) 4
Job No: GW/05/254
Finally, there has been quite a lot of publicity recently about E - Shopping, that is to say,
shopping on the Internet.
Q27a What effect, if any, do you think shopping on the Internet will have on the retail
turnover of this Town Centre as a whole?
Q27b And what effect, if any, do you think shopping on the Internet will have on the retail
turnover of your own shop?
Q27a Q27b
Will increase turnover a lot 1 1
Will increase turnover a little 2 2
Will have no noticeable affect at all 3 3
Will decrease turnover a little 4 4
Will decrease turnover a lot 5 5
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 7
Pedestrian Counts
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 7A
Survey Methodology
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_ _________
Pedestrian Flow Counts
• Pedestrian counts provide ‘hard’ data on the absolute levels of foot fall throughout a town centre
and enable relative levels of customer flows to be identified and mapped. Two-way pedestrian flow
counts were undertaken at eight locations within each of the three town centres in Craigavon
District. The locations of all count points were agreed with The Planning Service prior to the
survey. All the counts took place between 10.00 hours and 16.00 hours daily on Wednesday 4th,
Friday 6th, and Saturday 7th May 2005. Therefore, all the pedestrian flows are directly comparable
with one another.
• At each point pedestrian flows were counted for an agreed period of time each hour (normally)
across the full width of the street in each direction. The results were then grossed up by an
appropriate factor to produce equivalent hourly flows in each direction at every point. The sum of
the hourly flows for the six hour period gives the estimated daily flows.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 7B
Key Results
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 8
Photographs
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 1: Craigavon: General view of the Rushmere Shopping Centre
Photo 2: Craigavon: Entrance to Rushmere Shopping Centre, adjoining Sainsbury’s
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 3: Craigavon: View of rear of Rushmere Shopping Centre
Photo 4: Craigavon: Land adjoining the Rushmere Shopping Centre
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 5: Craigavon: Rushmere Shopping Centre, view of the new mall towards
Debenhams
Photo 6: Craigavon: Rushmere Shopping Centre, view from Debenhams
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 7: Lurgan: View along Market Street towards Church Place
Photo 8: Lurgan: The primary shopping frontage in Market Street
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 9: Lurgan: The eastern end of the High Street
Photo 10: Lurgan: View west along William Street towards the railway crossing
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 11: Lurgan: Existing retailing along Castle Lane
Photo 12: Lurgan: The new bypass to the south of the town centre
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 13: Portadown: View along Church Street towards Market Street
Photo 14: Portadown: Public Space in Market Street
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 15: Portadown: Car-parking and rear entrances to the Magowan West and High
Street Mall Shopping Centres
Photo 16: Portadown: View east along West Street
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Photo 17: Portadown: Millennium Court Arts Centre
Photo 18: Portadown: The Meadows Shopping Centre
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 9
Retail Floorspace Data for Craigavon District and
Constituent Towns / Settlements (Supplied by The Planning
Service as of January 2005 and up-dated to May 2005 by
Colliers CRE)
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 10
Experian Business Strategies Data / Technical Data
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 10A
Survey Area Consumer Retail Expenditure Data
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 10B
Definitions of Convenience and Comparison Goods
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 10C
Consumer Retail Expenditure Projections and Forecasts
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 10D
Non-Store Retail Expenditure Estimates
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 10E
Estimating and Projecting Sales Densities
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 10F
Methodology for Estimating Future Growth in Population
by Zone
Appendix 10F – Methodology for Estimating Future Growth in Population by
Zone
1. For each of the 16 household survey zones, we define those wards that
comprise the zone.
2. We then obtain the population total for 2003 (the latest available for each
ward). Our source is:
www.nisra.gov.uk/census/Census2001Output/KeyStatistics/keystats
3. We then add together the appropriate 2003 ward populations to generate the
2003 population for each of the 16 survey zones.
4. Lastly, we project the 2003 ward (and zone) population totals forward to the
base year (2005) and the design years of 2010 and 2015 by applying district-
wide population projections sourced from the link below. We assume that
(any) population growth for a district is spread in proportion across each of its
constituent wards. The link is:
www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/financeandpersonnel/DMB/pop_project
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 11
Retail Floorspace Commitments and Proposals within
Craigavon District
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 11A
Schedule of Retail Commitments in Craigavon District:
Estimated Retail Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by
Category of Goods and Centre
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_____
Schedule of Retail Commitments in Craigavon District (ie. Schemes with planning consent as at May 2005)
CRAIGAVON
Location Description of Assumed Current Gross Estimated Assumed Estimated Assumed Estimated
Development Goods Status Retail Net Retail Sales Density Turnover in Sales Density Turnover in
Category Floorspace Floorspace in 2010 2010 in 2015 2015
(Sq M) (Sq M) (£ per Sq M) (£m) (£ per Sq M) (£m)
1 Land at Northway, Factory Outlet Comparison Not 3,720 2,980 3,500 10.4 3,912 11.7
Balteagh Road(1) Centre (100%) Started
(Non-Bulky)
LURGAN
Location Description of Assumed Current Gross Estimated Assumed Estimated Assumed Estimated
Development Goods Status Retail Net Retail Sales Density Turnover in Sales Density Turnover in
Category Floorspace Floorspace in 2010 2010 in 2015 2015
(Sq M) (Sq M) (£ per Sq M) (£m) (£ per Sq M) (£m)
1 Land to Westside Retail Comparison Not 9,290 8,360 1,500 12.5 1,677 14.0
of Castle Lane Warehouses (100%) Started
(Bulky)
2 Between New Tesco Convenience Not 5,468 3,280 Conv. 7,500 Conv. 17.22 Conv. 7,786 Conv. 17.92
Road / Carnegie Superstore (70%) and Started Comp. 4,000 Comp. 3.9 Comp. 4,471 Comp. 4.4
Street / Union Comparison
Street (30%) (Non-
Bulky)
3 Land to rear of 31 Retail Comparison Not 1,954 1,760 1,500 2.6 1,677 3.0
High Street Warehouses (100%) Started
(Bulky)
4 Malcolm Road Retail Comparison Not 830 750 1,500 1.1 1.677 1.3
Warehouses (100%) Started
(Bulky)
1
A separate application for a superstore has been submitted on this site, see scheme (1) for Craigavon listed under retail proposals.
2
In our quantitative need assessment we assume that the existing Tesco store in Castle Lane, Lurgan (1,500 sq m net) will cease trading when the new superstore opens. Thus the estimated net
additional increase in convenience goods turnover will be £5.9m in 2010 and £6.2m in 2015.
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_____
PORTADOWN
Location Description of Assumed Current Gross Estimated Assumed Estimated Assumed Estimated
Development Goods Status Retail Net Retail Sales Density Turnover in Sales Density Turnover in
Category Floorspace Floorspace in 2010 2010 in 2015 2015
(Sq M) (Sq M) (£ per Sq M) (£m) (£ per Sq M) (£m)
1 Land at Edenderry1 Retail Comparison Not 10,219 9,200 1,500 13.8 1,677 15.4
Warehouses (100%) Started
(Bulky)
2 10 Carleton Street Change of use Comparison Not 71 46 4,000 0.2 4,471 0.2
to retail (100%) Started
(Non-Bulky)
3 9-11 Mandeville Demolition Comparison Not 174 113 4,000 0.5 4,471 0.5
Street and new build (100%) Started
to provide (Non-Bulky)
retail
4 20 Church Street Extension to Comparison Not 90 59 4,000 0.2 4,471 0.3
existing shop (100%) Started
(Non-Bulky)
Source: The DoE, Planning Service.
1
A separate application for a superstore has also been submitted on this site, see scheme (2) for Portadown listed under retail proposals.
CRAIGAVON TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARIES
AND RETAIL DESIGNATIONS STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,
PLANNING SERVICE
APPENDIX 11B
Schedule of Retail Proposals in Craigavon District:
Estimated Retail Floorspace and Forecast Turnover by
Category of Goods and Centre
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_____
Schedule of Retail Proposals in Craigavon District (ie. Applications submitted awaiting a planning decision as at May 2005)
CRAIGAVON
Location Description of Assumed Current Gross Estimated Assumed Estimated Assumed Estimated
Development Goods Status Retail Net Retail Sales Density Turnover in Sales Density Turnover in
Category Floorspace Floorspace in 2010 2010 in 2015 2015
(Sq M) (Sq M) (£ per Sq M) (£m) (£ per Sq M) (£m)
1 Land at Northway, Superstore Convenience Outline 8,360 5,020 Conv. 7,500 Conv. 24.5 Conv. 7,786 Conv. 25.4
Balteagh Road(1) (65% and Application Comp. 4,000 Comp. 7.0 Comp. 4,471 Comp. 7.9
Comparison
(35%) (Non-
Bulky)
2 Rushmere Extension to Comparison Outline 6,295 4,090 4,000 16.4 4,471 18.3
Shopping Centre existing (100%) Application
shopping (Non-Bulky)
centre
3 Marlborough Retail Superstore Convenience Outline 10,800 6,480 Conv. 7,500 Conv. 29.2 Conv. 7,786 Conv. 30.3
Park(2) (60%) and Application Comp. 4,000 Comp. 10.4 Comp. 4,471 Comp. 11.6
Comparison
(40%)
LURGAN
There are no retail proposals in Lurgan.
1
This proposal is on the same site as scheme (1) for Craigavon listed under the retail commitments. In practice, this proposal can only go ahead if the existing retail
commitment does not proceed. For the same reason, we do not list two other applications for the same site relating to comparison goods retail, which we consider is less
likely to proceed than the superstore. In our quantitative retail need assessment we exclude the superstore proposal giving precedence to the comparison goods retail
commitment on the same Northway site.
2
There is a second application for this same site relating to a 10,532 sq m gross superstore development. We have chosen the larger of the two alternative schemes to include
in our schedule and in our quantitative need assessment.
Colliers CRE Craigavon Town Centre Boundaries and Retail Designations Study
November 2005 Department of Environment, Planning Service
_____
PORTADOWN
Location Description of Assumed Current Gross Estimated Assumed Estimated Assumed Estimated
Development Goods Status Retail Net Retail Sales Density Turnover in Sales Density Turnover in
Category Floorspace Floorspace in 2010 2010 in 2015 2015
(Sq M) (Sq M) (£ per Sq M) (£m) (£ per Sq M) (£m)
1 Loughgall Road Mixed use Convenience Application 4,952 3,220 Conv. 5,000 Conv. 1.8 Conv. 5,190 Conv. 1.8
development, (11%), Pending Comp. 3,750 Comp. 10.7 Comp. 4,192 Comp. 12.0
including retail Retail
Warehouses
(21%) and
Other
Comparison
(68%)
2 Land at Superstore Convenience Application 10,219 6,130 Conv. 7,500 Conv. 27.6 Conv. 7,786 Conv. 28.6
Edenderry(1) (60%) and Pending Comp. 4,000 Comp. 9.8 Comp. 4,471 Comp. 11.0
Comparison
(40%) (Non-
Bulky)
Source: The DoE, Planning Service.
1
An approval for bulky comparison goods has already been granted on this same Edenderry site (see scheme (2) for Portadown listed under the retail commitments). This
scheme has been included as a retail commitment in our quantitative retail need assessment.. However, if the superstore was granted planning consent then the bulky
comparison goods scheme could not proceed.
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