an LECG Company
EMERGING ISSUES AND MARKET TRENDS
Presented to 2007 CSBS Annual Conference
June 1, 2007 Coeur d’ Alene , Idaho
550 S. Hope Street Suite 1645 Los Angeles, CA 90071 Tel: (213) 629-3500 Fax: (213) 629- 7420 Email: DAbshier@securagroup.com Website: www.securagroup.com
By: David E. Abshier, Senior Managing Consultant The Secura Group, an LECG Company
an LECG Company
Summary
♦ Background
♦ Emerging issues and Expectations
♦ General Banking Trends
♦ Conclusion
DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
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an LECG Company
Background
♦ Secura’s market coverage is nationwide. Types of engagements include:Strategic and Financial Advisory, ERM, Credit Risk, BSA/AML, Compliance Risk Management, ALM/Market Risk, Basel II, Fair Lending, Capital Requirement/Allocation and others. ♦ Secura was recently acquired by LECG. LECG is a global expert services firm with over 1,000 experts and professionals in 13 countries. The firm provides independent expert testimony, original authoritative studies, and strategic advisory services to clients including Fortune Global 500 corporations, major law firms, and local, state, and federal governments and agencies around the world.
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
Emerging Issues and Expectations
♦ Enterprise Risk Management (“ERM”).
♦ Generally Accepted as “Best practices”. ♦ Develop a Frame-work or Methodology – Functional Criteria ♦ Tailor Key Risk factors to your Business Model ♦ Identify Efficiencies/Tangible benefits ♦ Corporate Governance and Board Reporting
♦ Contingency Planning
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
Emerging Issues and Expectations
♦ Subprime Non-prime and “ALT A” Lending
♦ Credit Risk
♦ Buybacks/Repurchases ♦ Increase in delinquencies and foreclosures ♦ ALLL (accounting risk as well) ♦ Concentrations
♦ Compliance Risk
♦ Unfair and Deceptive Acts/Predatory lending
♦ High Cost Mortgages/Disclosure Requirements
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
Emerging Issues and Expectations
♦ Human Capital Risk.
♦ Qualified Management and Staff. ♦ Identification/Retention/Development ♦ Ethics and Standards ♦ Training
♦ Pro-active, Ongoing and Bank-wide. ♦ Documented ♦ Validate/test Effectiveness
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
Emerging Issues and Expectations
♦ De Novo Banks
♦ Identification and Retention of Qualified Management. ♦ Corporate Governance & Regulation O concerns. ♦ System of Controls/Infrastructure. ♦ Capital – Pressure to generate assets/grow to critical mass. ♦ Competition for Core Deposits.
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends (cont.)
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends (cont.)
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends (cont.)
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends (cont.)
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends (cont.)
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends (cont.)
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
General Banking Trends (cont.)
The Big Picture…. ♦ NIM tightening – loan volume – erosion of credit standards. ♦ National market slowdown in real estate – the market is working.
♦ Fed’s survey of senior loan officers – 40% said they had tightened Standards. ♦ Subprime/Non-prime loan delinquency and foreclosures rate are up significantly. ♦ Overall loan delinquency and non-performers are up modestly, but not severely. ♦ “Gradual Erosion” of credit process/standards and loan covenants over time.
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
Conclusion
♦ As I mentioned, we have been busy around the country reviewing ERM, credit risk management, ALM, strategic plans, etc…
♦ Human capital risk – identification, sourcing and retention of qualified management and staff.
♦ Credit Risk - review of credit risk ratings, ALLL, loan review function, staffing and training.
♦ Enterprise wide Risk Management - be ready for opportunities to improve efficiencies and maximize shareholder value!
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DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
an LECG Company
THANK YOU!
DAbshier@securagroup.com www.securagroup.com
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