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Strong Growth, Low Pollution - Modelling a Carbon Price
Charts and tables from the report
SGLP core policy scenario
Gross State Product, Index (2010=100) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NSW 100.0 101.4 105.2 108.4 111.1 113.6 116.2 118.9
VIC 100.0 101.9 105.9 109.3 112.2 114.9 117.7 120.6
QLD 100.0 102.6 107.2 111.4 115.4 119.9 124.8 129.2
SA 100.0 101.6 104.8 107.5 109.7 111.8 113.8 115.8
WA 100.0 103.9 109.5 115.1 120.0 125.4 130.8 136.4
TAS 100.0 101.2 104.8 107.4 109.2 110.9 112.7 114.7
Change from medium global action scenario (Per cent)
NSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.15 -0.20 -0.23 -0.24
VIC 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.22 -0.29 -0.33 -0.37
QLD 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.19 -0.25 -0.28 -0.29
SA 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.18 -0.21 -0.24 -0.24
WA 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.25
TAS 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.12 -0.09 -0.11 -0.07 -0.02
Chart 5.37: Gross state product
SGLP Core
Level Change from global action scenario
Index(2010=100) Index(2010=100) Per cent Per cent
350 350 0 0
300 300
-1 -1
250 250
200 200
-2 -2
150 150
100 100
-3 -3
100 100
-3 -3
50 50
0 0 -4 -4
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NSW VIC QLD NSW VIC QLD
SA WA TAS SA WA TAS
Source: Treasury estimates from MMRF.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
121.8 124.6 127.6 130.7 133.9 137.2 140.5 144.0 147.5 151.1 154.8 158.7 162.5
123.7 126.7 129.8 132.9 136.2 139.5 142.9 146.4 149.9 153.6 157.3 161.1 165.2
133.3 137.5 141.7 145.9 150.1 154.5 158.9 163.4 168.0 172.6 177.4 182.3 187.3
118.3 120.8 123.2 125.1 127.1 129.1 131.1 133.3 135.4 137.6 140.0 142.4 144.9
141.4 146.3 151.2 156.1 161.0 165.9 170.9 175.9 181.0 186.1 191.4 196.8 202.4
116.8 118.8 121.5 123.6 125.7 128.0 130.3 132.6 135.0 137.6 140.2 142.9 145.8
-0.27 -0.29 -0.32 -0.35 -0.42 -0.49 -0.55 -0.62 -0.69 -0.76 -0.84 -0.92 -1.02
-0.41 -0.45 -0.47 -0.50 -0.55 -0.60 -0.67 -0.75 -0.83 -0.92 -1.02 -1.13 -1.28
-0.30 -0.34 -0.34 -0.37 -0.42 -0.49 -0.56 -0.65 -0.74 -0.82 -0.88 -0.96 -1.05
-0.26 -0.29 -0.32 -0.34 -0.37 -0.41 -0.43 -0.45 -0.47 -0.50 -0.49 -0.47 -0.45
-0.27 -0.28 -0.29 -0.32 -0.37 -0.41 -0.47 -0.52 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65 -0.70 -0.76
0.01 -0.03 -0.02 -0.04 -0.10 -0.17 -0.23 -0.28 -0.31 -0.30 -0.27 -0.24 -0.22
2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043
166.5 170.9 175.4 180.1 184.9 189.7 194.6 199.6 204.6 209.8 215.0 220.3 225.7
168.9 173.0 177.2 181.5 185.9 190.4 195.0 199.7 204.5 209.4 214.4 219.4 224.6
192.4 197.8 203.2 208.8 214.5 220.3 226.1 232.0 238.2 244.4 250.7 257.2 263.6
147.5 150.4 153.2 156.2 159.2 162.2 165.2 168.4 171.5 174.8 178.1 181.5 184.9
208.1 213.2 218.5 223.8 229.3 234.8 240.4 246.2 252.0 257.9 263.9 270.0 276.2
148.7 151.7 154.9 158.2 161.5 164.9 168.3 171.8 175.4 179.0 182.6 186.3 190.0
-1.11 -1.19 -1.28 -1.36 -1.45 -1.55 -1.66 -1.78 -1.89 -2.00 -2.09 -2.19 -2.30
-1.42 -1.55 -1.66 -1.76 -1.85 -1.92 -1.99 -2.03 -2.09 -2.14 -2.20 -2.24 -2.28
-1.15 -1.25 -1.39 -1.50 -1.63 -1.76 -1.91 -2.06 -2.20 -2.34 -2.47 -2.61 -2.78
-0.43 -0.39 -0.38 -0.36 -0.36 -0.39 -0.42 -0.44 -0.48 -0.51 -0.49 -0.43 -0.40
-0.84 -0.92 -1.03 -1.13 -1.22 -1.32 -1.44 -1.54 -1.63 -1.72 -1.82 -1.93 -2.04
-0.21 -0.26 -0.32 -0.33 -0.36 -0.41 -0.46 -0.51 -0.56 -0.61 -0.63 -0.64 -0.65
2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
231.0 236.4 241.8 247.2 252.6 258.2 263.8
229.8 235.1 240.5 245.9 251.3 256.8 262.3
270.2 276.9 283.6 290.6 297.7 304.8 312.0
188.3 191.7 195.0 198.3 201.5 204.8 208.1
282.4 288.8 295.3 301.9 308.6 315.4 322.3
193.7 197.4 201.1 204.8 208.5 212.2 215.9
-2.42 -2.55 -2.69 -2.84 -2.99 -3.10 -3.22
-2.31 -2.31 -2.32 -2.34 -2.36 -2.39 -2.43
-2.93 -3.08 -3.23 -3.36 -3.45 -3.57 -3.68
-0.39 -0.38 -0.41 -0.47 -0.55 -0.61 -0.67
-2.15 -2.26 -2.36 -2.45 -2.53 -2.62 -2.69
-0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.70 -0.74 -0.79 -0.83
Strong Growth, Low Pollution - Modelling a Carbon Price
Charts and tables from the report
Clean Energy Future scenario
Gross State Product, Index (2010=100) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NSW 100.0 101.4 105.2 108.4 111.0 113.6 116.2 118.9
VIC 100.0 101.9 105.9 109.3 112.2 114.9 117.8 120.6
QLD 100.0 102.6 107.2 111.4 115.4 119.9 124.8 129.2
SA 100.0 101.6 104.8 107.5 109.7 111.7 113.7 115.8
WA 100.0 103.9 109.5 115.1 120.0 125.4 130.8 136.4
TAS 100.0 101.2 104.8 107.3 109.3 110.9 112.8 114.7
Change from medium global action scenario (Per cent)
NSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.16 -0.20 -0.22 -0.23
VIC 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.23 -0.30 -0.32 -0.36
QLD 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.20 -0.26 -0.28 -0.28
SA 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.20 -0.23 -0.25 -0.24
WA 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.19 -0.23 -0.25 -0.25
TAS 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.06 -0.07 -0.02 0.03
Chart 5.37: Gross state product
Clean Energy Future
Level Change from global action scenario
Index(2010=100) Index(2010=100) Per cent Per cent
350 350 0 0
300 300
-1 -1
250 250
200 200
-2 -2
150 150
100 100
-3 -3
100 100
-3 -3
50 50
0 0 -4 -4
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NSW VIC QLD NSW VIC QLD
SA WA TAS SA WA TAS
Source: Treasury estimates from MMRF.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
121.8 124.7 127.6 130.7 133.9 137.2 140.6 144.0 147.5 151.1 154.9 158.7 162.5
123.7 126.7 129.8 132.9 136.2 139.5 142.9 146.4 150.0 153.6 157.3 161.1 165.2
133.3 137.5 141.7 145.9 150.2 154.5 158.9 163.4 168.0 172.7 177.5 182.4 187.3
118.3 120.8 123.3 125.2 127.1 129.1 131.2 133.3 135.5 137.7 140.0 142.5 145.0
141.4 146.3 151.2 156.1 161.0 165.9 170.9 175.9 181.0 186.1 191.4 196.8 202.4
116.8 118.8 121.5 123.6 125.7 128.0 130.3 132.7 135.1 137.6 140.3 143.0 145.9
-0.25 -0.28 -0.31 -0.34 -0.40 -0.47 -0.53 -0.60 -0.67 -0.73 -0.80 -0.89 -0.98
-0.40 -0.44 -0.47 -0.50 -0.54 -0.60 -0.66 -0.73 -0.82 -0.90 -1.01 -1.13 -1.27
-0.29 -0.32 -0.33 -0.36 -0.41 -0.48 -0.54 -0.63 -0.71 -0.79 -0.85 -0.94 -1.03
-0.26 -0.28 -0.30 -0.32 -0.35 -0.38 -0.40 -0.42 -0.44 -0.47 -0.45 -0.43 -0.41
-0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.33 -0.38 -0.42 -0.47 -0.52 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65 -0.71 -0.77
0.05 -0.03 -0.02 -0.04 -0.10 -0.16 -0.21 -0.25 -0.28 -0.25 -0.20 -0.17 -0.15
2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043
166.5 171.0 175.5 180.2 185.0 189.8 194.7 199.7 204.8 209.9 215.1 220.4 225.8
169.0 173.0 177.2 181.6 186.0 190.4 195.0 199.7 204.5 209.4 214.4 219.4 224.6
192.5 197.9 203.4 209.0 214.6 220.4 226.2 232.2 238.3 244.5 250.9 257.3 263.8
147.6 150.4 153.3 156.2 159.2 162.3 165.3 168.4 171.6 174.9 178.1 181.5 184.9
208.1 213.2 218.5 223.9 229.3 234.9 240.5 246.3 252.1 257.9 264.0 270.0 276.2
148.8 151.9 155.1 158.4 161.7 165.1 168.6 172.0 175.6 179.2 182.8 186.5 190.2
-1.06 -1.14 -1.21 -1.29 -1.38 -1.49 -1.60 -1.71 -1.83 -1.94 -2.04 -2.13 -2.24
-1.40 -1.52 -1.62 -1.72 -1.81 -1.90 -1.97 -2.03 -2.09 -2.14 -2.19 -2.23 -2.26
-1.12 -1.21 -1.32 -1.44 -1.57 -1.71 -1.86 -2.02 -2.15 -2.29 -2.42 -2.55 -2.72
-0.39 -0.35 -0.35 -0.34 -0.35 -0.36 -0.39 -0.41 -0.43 -0.46 -0.47 -0.42 -0.40
-0.85 -0.93 -1.02 -1.12 -1.21 -1.30 -1.41 -1.52 -1.61 -1.71 -1.81 -1.91 -2.01
-0.12 -0.15 -0.19 -0.20 -0.22 -0.28 -0.33 -0.38 -0.44 -0.50 -0.53 -0.54 -0.54
2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
231.1 236.5 241.9 247.3 252.7 258.3 263.9
229.9 235.2 240.6 246.0 251.5 256.9 262.4
270.4 277.1 283.8 290.7 297.7 304.8 312.0
188.3 191.7 195.1 198.3 201.6 204.9 208.2
282.5 288.9 295.4 302.0 308.7 315.5 322.4
193.9 197.6 201.4 205.0 208.7 212.5 216.2
-2.36 -2.50 -2.64 -2.81 -2.96 -3.07 -3.18
-2.28 -2.28 -2.27 -2.29 -2.31 -2.35 -2.40
-2.87 -3.01 -3.17 -3.31 -3.43 -3.56 -3.68
-0.39 -0.38 -0.39 -0.45 -0.51 -0.57 -0.63
-2.12 -2.22 -2.33 -2.41 -2.52 -2.60 -2.68
-0.55 -0.54 -0.54 -0.57 -0.61 -0.67 -0.72
Strong Growth, Low Pollution - Modelling a Carbon Price
Charts and tables from the report
Government policy scenario
Gross State Product, Index (2010=100) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NSW 100.0 101.4 105.2 108.4 111.0 113.6 116.2
VIC 100.0 101.9 105.9 109.3 112.2 114.9 117.7
QLD 100.0 102.6 107.2 111.3 115.4 119.9 124.8
SA 100.0 101.6 104.8 107.5 109.7 111.7 113.7
WA 100.0 103.9 109.5 115.1 120.0 125.4 130.8
TAS 100.0 101.2 104.8 107.3 109.3 110.9 112.8
Change from medium global action scenario (Per cent)
NSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.16 -0.21 -0.24
VIC 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.23 -0.31 -0.34
QLD 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.20 -0.27 -0.29
SA 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.20 -0.24 -0.25
WA 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.19 -0.24 -0.25
TAS 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.06 -0.04 0.00
Chart 5.37: Gross state product
Government
Level Change from global action scenario
Index(2010=100) Index(2010=100) Per cent Per cent
350 350 0 0
300 300
-1 -1
250 250
200 200
-2 -2
150 150
100 100
-3 -3
100 100
-3 -3
50 50
0 0 -4 -4
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040
NSW VIC QLD 2050
NSW VIC QLD
SA WA TAS SA WA TAS
Source: Treasury estimates from MMRF.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
118.9 121.8 124.6 127.6 130.7 133.9 137.2 140.5 144.0 147.5 151.1 154.8 158.7
120.6 123.7 126.7 129.7 132.9 136.2 139.5 142.9 146.4 149.9 153.6 157.3 161.1
129.2 133.3 137.5 141.7 145.9 150.1 154.5 158.9 163.4 168.0 172.6 177.5 182.3
115.8 118.3 120.8 123.3 125.2 127.1 129.1 131.2 133.3 135.4 137.6 140.0 142.5
136.4 141.4 146.3 151.2 156.1 160.9 165.9 170.9 175.9 180.9 186.1 191.3 196.8
114.7 116.8 118.8 121.4 123.5 125.7 128.0 130.3 132.7 135.1 137.6 140.2 142.9
-0.25 -0.26 -0.29 -0.32 -0.36 -0.42 -0.49 -0.55 -0.62 -0.69 -0.76 -0.83 -0.92
-0.38 -0.41 -0.46 -0.48 -0.51 -0.56 -0.62 -0.68 -0.75 -0.84 -0.92 -1.02 -1.14
-0.29 -0.30 -0.33 -0.34 -0.36 -0.42 -0.49 -0.56 -0.64 -0.73 -0.82 -0.87 -0.95
-0.24 -0.26 -0.28 -0.30 -0.32 -0.35 -0.39 -0.41 -0.43 -0.46 -0.49 -0.47 -0.46
-0.25 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.34 -0.39 -0.44 -0.49 -0.53 -0.59 -0.63 -0.67 -0.72
0.04 0.07 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05 -0.11 -0.18 -0.23 -0.27 -0.30 -0.28 -0.25 -0.23
2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
162.5 166.5 170.9 175.4 180.1 184.9 189.7 194.6 199.6 204.7 209.8 215.0 220.3
165.2 168.9 173.0 177.2 181.5 185.9 190.4 195.0 199.7 204.5 209.4 214.4 219.4
187.3 192.4 197.8 203.2 208.8 214.5 220.3 226.1 232.1 238.2 244.4 250.7 257.2
144.9 147.6 150.4 153.3 156.2 159.2 162.2 165.2 168.4 171.6 174.8 178.1 181.5
202.3 208.1 213.2 218.4 223.8 229.3 234.8 240.4 246.1 251.9 257.8 263.8 269.9
145.8 148.7 151.7 154.9 158.2 161.5 164.9 168.3 171.8 175.4 179.0 182.6 186.3
-1.01 -1.10 -1.19 -1.27 -1.35 -1.45 -1.55 -1.66 -1.77 -1.88 -1.99 -2.09 -2.19
-1.28 -1.42 -1.55 -1.66 -1.76 -1.84 -1.92 -1.98 -2.03 -2.08 -2.13 -2.19 -2.24
-1.05 -1.15 -1.25 -1.38 -1.50 -1.62 -1.76 -1.91 -2.05 -2.20 -2.34 -2.47 -2.60
-0.44 -0.42 -0.38 -0.37 -0.36 -0.36 -0.39 -0.42 -0.43 -0.46 -0.49 -0.46 -0.42
-0.79 -0.87 -0.94 -1.05 -1.15 -1.25 -1.34 -1.46 -1.57 -1.66 -1.75 -1.85 -1.96
-0.22 -0.21 -0.26 -0.31 -0.32 -0.35 -0.40 -0.45 -0.49 -0.54 -0.60 -0.63 -0.64
2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
225.7 231.0 236.4 241.8 247.2 252.7 258.2 263.8
224.6 229.8 235.1 240.5 245.9 251.3 256.8 262.3
263.6 270.2 276.9 283.7 290.6 297.7 304.8 312.0
184.9 188.3 191.7 195.0 198.3 201.5 204.8 208.1
276.1 282.4 288.7 295.2 301.8 308.5 315.3 322.2
190.0 193.7 197.4 201.1 204.8 208.5 212.3 216.0
-2.30 -2.42 -2.55 -2.69 -2.83 -2.98 -3.09 -3.20
-2.28 -2.30 -2.31 -2.32 -2.34 -2.36 -2.38 -2.43
-2.77 -2.92 -3.07 -3.21 -3.34 -3.44 -3.57 -3.67
-0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.43 -0.48 -0.55 -0.61 -0.67
-2.07 -2.18 -2.28 -2.39 -2.48 -2.57 -2.66 -2.75
-0.65 -0.66 -0.65 -0.65 -0.68 -0.71 -0.76 -0.79
