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					Seasonality.
Team Members
  Jean-Pierre Nordmann
  Andrew Croasdell
  Mark Briggs
  Kirk Granger
  Andy Wilson
  Daniel Mahon
  Keir Birch
Background.
  Seasonality is a major disadvantage
  of tourism and often leads to
  negative economic effects on a
  destination.                          Global tourism demand
  Peak season creates large revenue
  needs to last all year.
  Considering all tourist activities     10
  worldwide at a given time will
  produce a less seasonal pattern                                     Skiiing
  than looking at specific resorts.       5
  E.G. high levels of tourism in                                      Sea/Sun
  December to April (skiing)              0
  somewhere else in April to                                          Global




                                              JAN
                                                    APR

                                                          JUL
  September (sun holidays).




                                                                OCT
  Specific resorts and the tourist
  provisions within them will be
  affected by seasonality.
Causes of seasonality.
   Location
   Weather (Sun & Snow)
   Holidays school / works
   Attractions
   Festive holidays
   Behavioural
   Financial
   Economic climate
   Social / fashionable
   Media influence
Consequences of seasonality.
                    Seasonal employment
                    Boom bust economic
                    cycle
                    Over/under utilisation of
                    resources
                    Dependence on tourism.
                    Negative effects in times
                    of crisis, such as war,
                    terrorism or bad
                    weather.
Seasonality in focus.

   We will now look at how seasonality
   effects the following tourism functions:

   Tour operator
   Tourist attraction
   Hotel
The Problem of Seasonality For
 The Outbound Tour Operator.
The Top Four Tour Operators.
SOURCE: Keynote Market Report, Travel Agents and Overseas Tour Operators, 2002




                Tour Operators Booked Through Travel Agents
                                (1999-2001)

                     24%                       22%


                                                                                 Thomsons
                                                                                 Airtours
                                                                                 Thomas Cook
               14%
                                                     22%                         First Choice
                                                                                 Others
                              18%
Seasonality.
SOURCE: Keynote Market Report, Travel Agents and Overseas Tour Operators, 2002




                    Percentage of Holiday Makers Per Month in 2001


                                  20
                                  15
                     Percentage




                                  10
                                   5
                                   0
                                   Jan/Feb           May             August      Nov/Dec
                                                                                   Month
What Problems do they Face?

   Supply and demand are rarely in balance, and supply
   can not change quickly

   Fluctuation in demand effects capacity utilization,
   overcrowding in peak and under utilisation in low

    These lead to inefficient uses of resources, as such
                    high operating costs
So What do Tour Operators do?
   The introduction of new operating strategies has
   been key

   Introduction of different kinds of holidays e.g. Ski
   hols, Sports/Activity Hols

   Vertical integration has allowed tour operators to buy
   Hotel Chains and Airlines, this integration offers
   greater cost advantages
Contd…

Negotiating contracts with Hoteliers

Segmenting the market by similarities

Spread their fixed costs more evenly over the entire
year

Marginal costing techniques
What Has This Lead to?
   Seasonality is often viewed as the reason for
   difficulties in gaining access to capital, for obtaining
   and retaining full time staff and for under utilisation
   of resources

   Adapting to seasonality allows:
   Resources to be utilised e.g. Flight Only
   Margins to be increased
   Less seasonality in the workforce
Attractions – overcoming
seasonality
Attractions background
   Attractions are just one part of
   a tourism industry

   Attractions can be affected by:       Destination
   -climate                            Accommodation
   -product                               Transport
   -location
   -environment
                                        Attractions
   -market                                Catering
                                         Organisers
   Seasonality effects attractions:
   - location and the destination in
   which it lies.
   - the attraction itself and not
   the surrounding area.
Demand Management
 •   37% of uk attractions do not charge entrance fees

 •   Price discrimination.
           -Charging different prices at different times

 •   Special offers
          -buy one get one free
          -kids for free
          -newspaper offers

     Diversification
          -modifying attractions to appeal to different market segments.
Blackpool Tower
   Blackpool located on the North West Coast of
   England.
   Two biggest attractions are the pleasure beach and
   Blackpool Tower.
   Blackpool hosts over 10 million visitors annually, of
   which 750,000 visit Blackpool Tower.
   Over 700,000 of these visit the Tower during
   Blackpools tourism peaks.
Problems
  Seasonality is a huge problem for Blackpool
  Tower.
  Suffers seasonality problems due to the
  location in which it lies.
  Blackpool has many frequent visitors.
  A large proportion of Blackpools visitors are
  UK tourists.
  Entertainment image.
  As will be seen, the extent of seasonality on
  the destination and ultimately the tower has
  meant little can be done.
What is currently being done
about Seasonality?
   Open daily:
   -Summer – November – during seasonal peaks.
   -Christmas holidays
   -Easter Holidays
   -Half term holidays
   At all other times, the tower is open on Wednesdays and
   Weekends only.
   The Towers location is its major strength being situated in the
   UK’s most popular seaside destination. It is less than an hour
   away from Manchester airport and 7.5 million people live within
   75 minutes.
Continued.
 Trough Period         -   £5.00 for   children
                       -   £6.50 for   adults
 Peak season           -   £6.00 for   children
                       -   £8.00 for   adults

 Tower offers numerous different forms of entertainment:
     -the tower circus
     -jungle jims,
     -family party
     -tower ballroom.

 Also offers a loyalty card and a gold card.
Seasonality in Hotels.
Industry trends.
Type of accomodation.      % Peak season % Off peak season
                                                                 The impacts of seasonality do not affect
                                                                 hotels as much as the other tourist
Hotel                                 10.2                15.4
Guest house / B&B.                    16.3                 5.1
                                                                 sectors we have discussed.
Self catering flat / cottage          26.5                18.8   Many hotels suffer seasonality on a
Caravan / tent                        15.3                40.2   weekly basis. Monday to Friday Business
Home of friend / family               18.4                13.7   travellers. Weekends attract short breaks.
Second Home                            3.1                 6.8   Prices are significantly lower on a
Other                                 10.2 N/A                   weekend to attract customers.
                         Source: Dorset tourist board figures.   Location determines the level of
                                                                 seasonality, as seaside located hotels will
                                                                 suffer more fluctuating demand than a
                                                                 city based business focussed hotel; due to
                                                                 weather, habit, and school holidays
                                                                 manipulating demand.
                                                                 In many cases, the use of hotels increases
                                                                 in the off peak season, as the figures
                                                                 produced by the Dorset tourist board
                                                                 highlight. The percentage of visitors
                                                                 staying in a hotel peak season is 10.2, this
                                                                 increases to 15.4 off peak. This again is
                                                                 due to lower prices and special offers.
Price discrimination.
   One technique Hotels can use is
   price discrimination. ‘Charging
   different people different amounts
   of money for the same service in
   order to manipulate demand.’                           Quality Exec king King & Sofa             Suite
   This can be seen in the table            Feb. Midweeek  109       134        144                  154
   opposite, as it shows the prices for a   Feb. Weekend    70       95         105                  115
   Marriott hotel both midweek and          Mar. Midweek   109       134        144                  154
   weekend. As you can see weekend          Mar. Weekend    75       100        110                  120
   customers pay up to 25% less for         Jul. Midweek   109       134        144                  154
   the same service.                        Jul. Weekend    75       104        124                  134
   This is a good method of demand          Aug. Midweek   109       134        144                  154
   manipulation, however this is only
                                            Aug. Weekend    75       104        124                  134
   applicable to city centre type hotels.
   Resort based hotels (e.g. seasides)      Nov. Midweek   109       134        144                  154
   may need to do the opposite to this      Nov. Weekend    70       95         105                  115
   by lowering prices midweek, as
                                                           Source: Marriott hotels price list. Hollins Hall.
   there is sufficient weekend demand
   most of the time.
Location.
                                                            As previously mentioned, the
                                                            location of a hotel can have a
   Seasonality of Tourism in Dorset.                        great bearing on its
                                                            seasonality. Hotel based around
          200000                                            resorts or attractions suffer the
                                                            same peaks and troughs as the
          150000
  Visitor                                                   resorts themselves.
          100000
 numbers.                                                   In the example of a seaside
           50000                                            resort; tourists only really visit
               0                                            in the summer months. This
                   Jan
                         Mar




                                                       S1   leaves a large 8 or 9 month off
                               May
                                     Jul
                                           Sep
                                                 Nov




                                                            peak period of low demand.
               Month.                                       Seaside resorts are not
                                                            synonymous with business or
            Source: Dorset tourist board figures.           conferences, therefore people
                                                            have very little reason to visit
                                                            them in the shoulder season,
                                                            causing a major ‘trough’ in the
                                                            economy.
Reverse yield management.
   Hotels employ the concept of reverse yield management
   in order to try and ensure they have high utilisation and
   reduce the effects of seasonality.
   Unlike the airline industry where the earlier you book
   the flight the cheaper the ticket. In the hotel industry,
   the longer you leave it before booking the room, often
   the cheaper it is. This is because the marginal cost of
   renting a room is very small, and as long as a booking is
   covering the variable costs and is at least making a
   contribution to fixed costs, most hotels will accept a far
   reduced price for the room rather than have it vacant.
Hollins Hall Hotel.
‘It is only a 10-minute
drive from Leeds/Bradford                       We will now focus on a real life
International Airport.                          hotel, and how they seek to
Business travellers will                        overcome the problems of
find a welcome retreat in                       seasonality.
the hotel's 200-acre site                       Hollins Hall Hotel is part of the
with its extensive meeting                      Marriott chain, it is situated in
facilities & Country Club.’                     Shipley, about 5 miles from the
                                                management centre.
                    ‘This is an ideal base      It is mainly marketed as a business
                    from which to explore       hotel, as the main features are its
                    local attractions such as   close proximity to local businesses,
                                                as well as as the cities of Leeds and
                    Salt's Mill, with the       Bradford. Business services are well
                    David Hockney               advertised also.
                    Exhibition, Bronte          The hotel is also described as being
                    Country, Harewood           ‘perfectly located in the heart of
                    House, York and             Yorkshire.’ The local tourist
                    Harrogate, Museum of        attractions are also listed in order to
                                                appeal to leisure travellers.
                    Film, Photography &
                    Television.’                Source: www.Marriott.com
Demand management.
 Core business.                Subsidiary activities.
  Price discrimination. Up       Golf course.
  to 25% cheaper to stay         Gymnasium.
  on a weekend.                  Conferences.
  Marriott reward scheme.        Weddings.
  Senior travellers discount     Parties.
  of at least 15%.
                                 Champagne Sunday
  Theatre breaks.                brunch.
  Conference facilities.
  Weddings.
Conclusion.
   The concept of seasonality can never be fully resolved, however there
   are methods that tourist functions can employ in order to reduce the
   negative effects. These can include:
   Pricing strategies – price discrimination.
   Accurate forecasting of demand.
   Diversification.
   Flexibility of resources.

   Despite these methods to help resolve negative impacts there are
   natural phenomenon that can not be manipulated by any management
   techniques. For example:
   Climate.
   Disasters. War & Weather.
Recommendations.
  Generate accurate demand forecasts
  Further diversification needs to be undertaken:
  New markets, ‘Adventure holidays is the fastest
  growing market in the tourist industry.’ Source:
  www.hyron.nf.ca/tourism

  New customers. E.g. 50 + winter breaks.
  Try to create relationships with third parties. Ie
  schools trips in off peak periods.
  Educate people, in order to reduce dependence on
  tourism, by promoting other industries.
Any Questions?

				
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