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					                                                            Intro




  Higher Educational Opportunity Under
Changing Labor Markets and Demographics
              Ohio College Access and Success Conference
                    Ohio College Access Network
                    Columbus Marriott North Hotel
                            Columbus, Ohio
                           October 23, 2006

                             Tom Mortenson
                              Senior Scholar,
  The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education
                    Higher Education Policy Analyst,
              Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
            College Affordability in Crisis

 • Unmet Financial Need
 • Student Work-Loan Burdens
 • Net Price to Family
 • Net Price to Family as a Percent of Family Income




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        NASSGAP1


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                              Unmet Financial Need




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                            Student Work-Loan Burden




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
Net price to Family
                                                                                           NPF Percent of Family Income




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                 The Education Pipeline
               By Family Income Quartiles

                 • High School Graduation
                 • College Continuation
                 • Bachelor’s Degree Completion
                 • Bachelor’s Degree Attainment




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                          CPS04C


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                          CPS04E


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                          CPS04G


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                          CPS04A


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                    The First Reality:
               The Human Capital Economy


                 • To 1973: The Rising Tide
                 • 1973 to 2000: Income Redistribution
                 • 2000 to ?: Global Competition




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        INCOMEMC


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        INCOMEMA


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        INCOMEMB


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        INCOMEFA


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        INCOMEFB


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        INCOMEFC


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                          PCPI02


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                         EMPLOY F


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        EMPLOY A


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        EMPLOY B


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        EMPLOY C


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        EMPLOY D


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                         EMPLOY E


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                         The Second Reality:
                        Changing Demography

        • Shrinking Share of White High School Graduates
        • Growing Share of Minority High School Graduates
        • Growing Share of K-12 Students Receiving
          Subsidized School Lunches




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        DEMOGRAF


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                        DEMOGRFA


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
              Policy Responses to
       Economic and Demographic Realities


                             • Federal Policy Choices
                             • State Policy Choices
                             • Institutional Policy Choices




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                          FEDAID


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                          STFINA


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                                         STATEAID


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
              Consequences for Opportunity
             For Students in Higher Education

              • Flat participation rates since mid-1990s
              • Sorting of enrollments by income and
                      race/ethnicity
              • Deterioration in international comparisons




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                                        Flat Rate




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                  Restoring Progressive and
                  Productive Policies:

               • $32 billion in unmet financial need
                   for undergraduate students




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                                                                   JUST&EFFICIENT



Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
                Restoring Progressive Policies
A. Federal Policy Changes

 •     Raise Pell Grant maximum award to $10,000
       Estimated cost $26.8 billion
 •     Eliminate federal education tax credits
       Reallocate savings of $8.0 billion to Pell Grant program
 •     Eliminate Pell Grant academic grants
       Reallocate savings of $0.9 billion to Pell Grant program
 •     Require matching state contribution above $4,000
       Reduce federal cost by $13.4 billion
 •     Reduce Iraq War costs by $4.5 billion



 Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
             Restoring Progressive Policies

B. State Policy Changes
• Shift state investment from institutions to needy students
    Move $66.6 billion from institutions to state need-based grant aid
• Prepare all students for college
    Track all students in college prep coursework unless student opts out
• Tax all institutions on their profits
    Exempt from state taxation according to state interests served




   Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
          Restoring Progressive Policies

 C. Institutional Policy Changes

  •      Limit tuition discounting to financially needy
         students only
  •      Do not report data to U.S. News until U.S.
         News produces socially constructive rankings
  •      Target recruiting efforts on students from low
         income and minority schools and families


Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH
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             www.postsecondary.org




Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY   Ohio College Access & Success Conference – October 23, 2006 – Columbus, OH

				
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