Polling
News
&
Notes
Overlooked
Recent
Polling
and
Insights
•
April
28,
2011
Voter
“Enthusiasm”
Matters
Little
in
Early
Stages
of
Presidential
Campaigns:
Much
media
hay
has
been
made
over
a
recent
CBS
News/New
York
Times
poll
showing
that
56%
of
Republicans
now
say
they
are
not
“enthusiastic”
about
any
of
the
GOP’s
presidential
candidates.
What
has
not
been
widely
discussed,
however,
is
that
this
is
probably
normal
this
early
in
a
primary
season
and
hardly
symbolic
of
the
race’s
final
outcome.
In
October
2007,
for
instance,
Gallup
found
that
less
than
half
of
Democrats
(49%)
said
they
were
“enthusiastic”
about
voting
for
Barack
Obama
against
the
eventual
Republican
nominee.
By
comparison,
64%
of
Democrats
at
the
time
said
they
were
“enthusiastic”
about
voting
for
Hillary
Clinton
against
a
Republican.
Voter
“enthusiasm”
as
measured
by
polls
changed
little
until
the
presidential
primaries
were
in
full
swing.
Even
a
Jan.
30-‐Feb.
2,
2008
Gallup
poll
found
the
number
of
Democrats
“enthusiastic”
about
voting
for
Obama
had
inched
up
to
55%.
A
similar
pattern
can
be
observed
in
the
2004
Democratic
primaries,
when
even
in
late
January
2004,
only
45%
of
Democrats
were
“enthusiastic”
about
voting
for
John
Kerry.
As
this
chart
shows,
most
voters
pay
little
attention
to
presidential
primary
politics
until
closer
to
the
voting.
In
the
2004
cycle,
for
instance,
only
around
a
third
of
Americans
had
an
opinion
about
John
Kerry
until
after
he
won
the
Iowa
caucus
and
New
Hampshire
primary.
In
the
2008
cycle,
national
media
coverage
of
the
race
between
Barack
Obama
and
Hillary
Clinton
began
much
earlier,
but
around
40%
of
Americans
had
no
opinions
of
Obama
until
the
nomination
contests
began
in
January
2008.
Percent
of
Adults
with
Opinions
of
Kerry/Obama
(CBS
News
Polls)
Kerry,
2003-‐04
Obama,
2007-‐08
77
72
68
62
62
57
58
56
56
54
55
70
48
65
38
38
57
35
34
27
1/1
2/1
3/1
4/1
5/1
6/1
7/1
8/1
9/1
10/1
11/1
12/1
1/1
2/1
3/1
Much
like
the
Democrats
in
2008,
most
voters
have
little
awareness
of
the
2012
Republican
presidential
contenders.
The
recent
CBS
News/Times
poll
found
that
only
Sarah
Palin
(81%
with
an
opinion)
is
well
known
by
Americans.
Mike
Huckabee
(65%),
Newt
Gingrich
(60%),
and
Mitt
Romney
(52%)
are
all
in
the
same
range
as
Obama
was
in
spring
2007,
while
Rick
Santorum
(22%),
Tim
Pawlenty
(20%),
Mitch
Daniels
(11%),
and
Jon
Huntsman
(11%)
are
all
essentially
unknown.
Republican
candidates
looking
to
take
on
President
Obama
in
November
2012
still
have
plenty
of
time
to
introduce
themselves
to
voters
and
inspire
“enthusiasm,”
despite
the
media’s
enthusiasm
for
depicting
the
GOP
as
being
in
deep
trouble.
###