YEAR VOTE PARTY PERSON DURATION WAR GROWTH INFLATION GOODNEWS
1880 50.22 -1 0 1.75 0 3.879 1.974 9 fair.def
1884 49.846 -1 0 2 0 1.589 1.055 2
1888 50.414 1 1 0 0 -5.553 0.604 3 YEAR VOTE PARTY PERSO
1892 48.268 -1 1 0 0 2.763 2.274 7
1896 47.76 1 0 0 0 -10.024 3.41 6 Obs: 31
1900 53.171 -1 1 0 0 -1.425 2.548 7
1904 60.006 -1 0 1 0 -2.421 1.442 5 1. YEAR
1908 54.483 -1 0 1.25 0 -6.281 1.879 8 2. VOTE = Incumbent sh
1912 54.708 -1 1 1.5 0 4.164 2.172 8 3. PARTY = 1 if there is a
1916 51.682 1 1 0 0 2.229 4.252 3 4. PERSON = 1 if the inc
1920 36.119 1 0 1 1 -11.463 0 0 5. DURATION = 0 if the
1924 58.244 -1 1 0 0 -3.872 5.161 10 6. WAR = 1 for the elect
1928 58.82 -1 0 1 0 4.623 0.183 7 7. GROWTH = growth ra
1932 40.841 -1 1 1.25 0 -14.557 7.16 4 8. INFLATION = absolute
1936 62.458 1 1 0 0 11.677 2.454 9 9. GOODNEWS = numbe
1940 54.999 1 1 1 0 3.611 0.055 8
1944 53.774 1 1 1.25 1 4.433 0 0 Data source: The Effect o
1948 52.37 1 1 1.5 1 2.858 0 0
1952 44.595 1 0 1.75 0 0.84 2.316 6
1956 57.764 -1 1 0 0 -1.394 1.93 5
1960 49.913 -1 0 1 0 0.417 1.963 5
1964 61.344 1 1 0 0 5.109 1.267 10 Variable
1968 49.596 1 0 1 0 5.07 3.156 7 YEAR
1972 61.789 -1 1 0 0 6.125 4.813 4 VOTE
1976 48.948 -1 0 1 0 4.026 7.579 4 PARTY
1980 44.697 1 1 0 0 -3.594 7.926 5 PERSON
1984 59.17 -1 1 0 0 5.568 5.286 8 DURATION
1988 53.902 -1 0 1 0 2.261 3.001 4 WAR
1992 46.545 -1 1 1.25 0 2.223 3.333 2 GROWTH
1996 54.736 1 1 0 0 2.712 2.146 4 INFLATION
2000 50.265 1 0 1 0 1.603 1.679 7 GOODNEWS
YEAR VOTE PARTY PERSON DURATION WAR GROWTH INFLATION GOODNEWS
2. VOTE = Incumbent share of the two-party presidential vote.
3. PARTY = 1 if there is a Democratic incumbent at the time of the election and -1 if there is a Republican incumbent.
4. PERSON = 1 if the incumbent is running for election and 0 otherwise.
5. DURATION = 0 if the incumbent party has been in power for one term, 1 if the incumbent party has been in power for two consecutive terms, 1.25
6. WAR = 1 for the elections of 1920, 1944, and 1948 and 0 otherwise.
7. GROWTH = growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first three quarters of the election year (annual rate).
8. INFLATION = absolute value of the growth rate of the GDP deflator in the first 15 quarters of the administration (annual rate) except for 1920, 194
9. GOODNEWS = number of quarters in the first 15 quarters of the administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2
Data source: The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update, Ray C. Fair, November 1, 2002; obtained from
Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
31 1940 36.36848 1880 2000
31 52.30474 6.168602 36.119 62.458
31 -0.09677 1.011759 -1 1
31 0.580645 0.50161 0 1
31 0.725807 0.671922 0 2
31 0.096774 0.300537 0 1
31 0.55471 5.614765 -14.557 11.677
31 2.678 2.176599 0 7.926
31 5.387097 2.836399 0 10
wo consecutive terms, 1.25 if the incumbent party has been in power for three consecutive terms, 1.50 for four consecutive terms, and so on.
rate) except for 1920, 1944, and 1948, where the values are zero.
ta GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at an annual rate except for 1920, 1944, and 1948, where the values are zero.
erms, and so on.