demog_projections

					                                        Demographic Projections
                  fertility transition implies attenuation of "echo" and ultimately total population



                                2035    2030   2025    2020   2015    2010   2005    2000   1995




700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000
                                                                                                                                      1995
300,000
                                                                                                                               2005

200,000                                                                                                                 2015

100,000                                                                                                          2025

                                                                                                          2035
    -
          0-4   5-9   10 -   15-19     20-24   25-30     31-34       35-40   41-45    41-50        50 -
                       14                                                                           54


                              Age Brackets, based on 1.04% census sample of women
                      Age-specific fertility, China

                                 1990   1993    1996
200


180


160


140


120


100


80


60


40


20


 0
      15-19   20-24      25-30          31-34          35-40   41-45   41-50
                                                           Demographic Projections
Age Bracket                     0-4      5-9       10 - 14       15-19         20-24
                                                      2004          11.1        159.1
Age-specific fertility rates,
2004                                      -           -            11.1        159.1
1995 female
population              412,696       628,104    521,694      442,897       545,307

births 1996-2000            -             -           -          4,916       86,758
Population in
2000                   419,392        412,696    628,104      521,694       442,897

births 2001-2005            -             -           -          5,791       70,465
Population in
2005                   375,666        419,392    412,696      628,104       521,694

births 2006-2010            -             -           -          6,972       83,002
Population in
2010                   377,236        375,666    419,392      412,696       628,104

births in 2011-2015         -             -           -          4,581       99,931
Population in
2015                   418,174        377,236    375,666      419,392       412,696

births in 2016-2020         -             -           -          4,655       65,660
Population in
2020                   371,519        418,174    377,236      375,666       419,392

births in 2021-2025         -             -           -          4,170       66,725
Population in
2025                   331,511        371,519    418,174      377,236       375,666

births in 2026-2030         -             -           -          4,187       59,768
Population in
2030                   301,937        331,511    371,519      418,174       377,236

births in 2031-2035         -             -           -          4,642       60,018
Population in
2035                   288,850        301,937    331,511      371,519       418,174

Age-specific fertility rates,             -           -            12.2        127.8
   Note: data are for a 1.04% sample and hence need to be increased to give the total national populatio
   In addition, these data are only for women, since the number of men is largely irrelevant when making
more men are born than women, in roughly a 1.09:1 ratio in China.
   To get the total population we must thus multiply by (1+1.09)/1.04% = 200.96. But we'd also have to p
and older.

   Remember Econ 201: A sample size of 400,000+ per cell is huge for statistical purposes, and provide
  These projections assume (i) that age-specific fertility levels do not decrease and (ii) constant 32 per th
subsequent child mortality.
ic Projections
                   25-30            31-34     35-40      41-45      41-50     50 - 54
                    108.1            39.7       12.3        3.7        1.5


                   108.1             39.7      12.3         3.7        1.5           0

                631,623       544,178       420,195    451,921    335,043    254,695

                 68,278        21,604         5,168      1,672       503         -

                545,307       631,623       544,178    420,195    451,921    335,043

                 58,948        25,075         6,693      1,555       678         -

                442,897       545,307       631,623    544,178    420,195    451,921

                 47,877        21,649         7,769      2,013       630         -

               521,694        442,897       545,307    631,623    544,178    420,195

                 56,395        17,583         6,707      2,337       816         -

               628,104        521,694       442,897    545,307    631,623    544,178

                 67,898        20,711         5,448      2,018       947         -

               412,696        628,104       521,694    442,897    545,307    631,623

                 44,612        24,936         6,417      1,639       818         -

               419,392        412,696       628,104    521,694    442,897    545,307

                 45,336        16,384         7,726      1,930       664         -

               375,666        419,392       412,696    628,104    521,694    442,897

                 40,609        16,650         5,076      2,324       783         -

               377,236        375,666       419,392    412,696    628,104    521,694

                   119.3             66.4      23.6         7.8        1.5           0
ve the total national population.
rgely irrelevant when making demographic projections. But

0.96. But we'd also have to put in the number of people age 55


tistical purposes, and provides highly accurate estimates.
ase and (ii) constant 32 per thousand child mortality but zero
Total

 5,188,353




 5,353,050




 5,393,673



 5,318,988



 5,316,967



 5,144,308



 4,844,196



 4,600,826



 4,446,779

Total
US Census Bureau. Age-Specific Fertility Rates and Selected Derived Measures –– China
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Year                15-19               20-24               25-29               30-34               35-39               40-44               45-49
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            1990                 21.5              197.2               150.4                 52.8                18.3                 5.4             1.6
            1991                 18.4              192.1               131.5                 41.1                13.2                 3.8             1.2
            1992                 15.9              188.8               114.3                 32.8                 8.8                 2.4             0.9
            1993                 15.7                 189              114.8                 36.1                 8.6                 2.4             0.9
            1994                 14.9              188.4               115.6                 35.3                 7.8                 2.2             0.9
            1995                   14              188.4               113.8                 32.8                 7.1                    2            0.8
            1996                 12.2              127.8               119.3                 66.4                23.6                 7.8             1.5
                           -43.00%             -35.00%             -21.00%              26.00%              29.00%              44.00%            -6.00%
                           -22.00%             -32.00%                4.00%             84.00%             174.00%             225.00%            67.00%




Downloaded May 7, 2004
U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

Table 028. Age-Specific Fertility Rates and Selected Derived Measures
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ---------- ------------- ------------- -----------
                                                             Total         Gross             Net Sex ratio
                                                         fertility reproduction reproduction at birth
Country or area/ ASFR ASFR ASFR ASFR ASFR ASFR ASFR rate per                                                       rate per  rate per (males per
Year              15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49                              woman            woman          woman female)
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ---------- ------------- ------------- -----------
China

1990               21.3 196.8 149.5          52.0     18.0      5.3     1.5 2.1860             1.0454            (NA)      1.0910
1991               18.4 192.4 131.6          41.1     13.2      3.8     1.2 2.0020             0.9552            (NA)      1.0959
1992               15.9 189.3 114.5          32.9      8.8     2.4     0.9 1.8240             0.8682            (NA)      1.1008
1993               15.7 189.3 114.9          36.0      8.5     2.3     0.9 1.8110             0.8600            (NA)      1.1057
1994               14.9 188.8 115.6          35.1      7.8     2.2     0.8 1.7900             0.8481            (NA)      1.1106
1995               14.1 188.9 114.1          32.8      7.2     2.0     0.8 1.7650             0.8343            (NA)      1.1155
1996               14.0 191.4 116.7          33.3      7.7     2.1     0.9 1.8041             0.8508            (NA)      1.1204
1997               13.3 191.6 115.9          33.4      8.7     2.3     1.0 1.8240             0.8582            (NA)      1.1253
1998               12.9 185.0 112.9          34.3     10.1      2.5     1.1 1.7880             0.8394            (NA)      1.1302
1999               12.4 176.1 109.8          35.2     10.5      2.5     1.1 1.7370             0.8135            (NA)      1.1351
2000                8.5 158.5 120.5          40.0     8.7     2.1     0.9 1.7000             0.7944            (NA)       1.1400
2001               13.5 166.4 106.2          36.7     10.7      2.7     1.3 1.6890             0.7907            (NA)      1.1360
2002               11.6 158.5 103.2          35.2      9.9     2.8     1.2 1.6500             0.7739            (NA)      1.1320
2003               11.2 158.1 106.1          38.5     11.6      3.5     1.4 1.6820             0.7904            (NA)      1.1280
2004               11.1 159.1 108.1          39.7     12.3      3.7     1.5 1.6920             0.7966            (NA)      1.1240
2005               11.8 158.7 111.0 42.5 13.6 4.0 1.6 1.7190                                     0.8108            (NA)    1.1200
2006               13.0 156.8 112.2 44.0 14.3 4.1 1.7 1.7340                                     0.8195            (NA)    1.1160
2007               13.2 151.7 116.4 45.7 14.9 4.2 1.8 1.7510                                     0.8291            (NA)    1.1120
2008               13.7 151.2 117.0 47.9 15.6 4.5 2.3 1.7690                                     0.8392            (NA)    1.1080
2009               14.0 151.4 117.5 50.4 16.4 4.9 2.5 1.7870                                     0.8493            (NA)    1.1040
2010               13.2 151.4 117.8 52.6 17.1 5.1 2.6 1.8040                                     0.8590            (NA)    1.1000
2011               12.9 153.2 118.8 54.5 17.8 5.3 2.5 1.8200                                     0.8683            (NA)    1.0960
2012               12.9 153.5 122.8 57.1 18.2 5.4 2.4 1.8320                                     0.8757            (NA)    1.0920
2013               12.9 153.3 123.6 58.0 18.8 5.6 2.5 1.8420                                     0.8822            (NA)    1.0880
2014               13.1 152.0 123.3 58.3 19.3 5.7 2.6 1.8480                                     0.8868            (NA)    1.0840
2015               13.3 150.5 122.5 58.0 19.6 5.7 2.7 1.8500                                     0.8894            (NA)    1.0800
2016               13.4 149.7 120.4 57.9 19.7 5.7 2.7 1.8490                                     0.8907            (NA)    1.0760
2017               13.4 149.1 119.7 59.7 20.5 5.7 2.6 1.8480                                     0.8919            (NA)    1.0720
2018               13.2 148.0 119.1 60.4 20.5 5.8 2.6 1.8450                                     0.8922            (NA)    1.0680
2019               12.8 146.8 119.3 60.7 20.6 5.9 2.7 1.8410                                     0.8920            (NA)    1.0640
2020               12.5 145.2 120.4 61.0 20.8 6.1 2.7 1.8360                                     0.8913            (NA)    1.0600
2021               12.1 142.7 120.5 60.8 21.2 6.2 2.8 1.8300                                     0.8883            (NA)    1.0600
2022               11.9 139.5 120.4 61.7 22.7 6.6 2.8 1.8230                                     0.8850            (NA)    1.0600
2023               11.7 135.4 120.0 62.6 23.4 6.7 2.9 1.8150                                     0.8811            (NA)    1.0600
2024               11.5 131.2 119.4 64.1 23.8 6.8 3.1 1.8070                                     0.8772            (NA)    1.0600
2025               11.3 126.7 118.9 66.4 24.2 7.0 3.2 1.7980                                     0.8728            (NA)    1.0600
2026               11.1 122.3 118.5 68.2 24.2 7.3 3.4 1.7890                                     0.8684            (NA)    1.0600
2027               11.0 118.3 118.3 69.8 24.7 7.7 3.6 1.7800                                     0.8641            (NA)    1.0600
2028               10.9 113.8 118.2 71.4 25.2 7.9 3.7 1.7700                                     0.8592            (NA)    1.0600
2029               10.8 109.8 118.2 72.7 26.1 8.1 3.8 1.7610                                     0.8549            (NA)    1.0600
2030               10.8 105.8 118.1 74.0 27.3 8.3 3.8 1.7520                                     0.8505            (NA)    1.0600
2031               10.7 101.9 118.0 75.4 28.2 8.4 3.9 1.7430                                     0.8461            (NA)    1.0600
2032               10.6 98.6 117.7 76.8 28.9 8.6 4.2 1.7350                                      0.8422           (NA)    1.0600
2033               10.5 95.4 117.4 78.4 29.4 8.7 4.4 1.7270                                      0.8383           (NA)    1.0600
2034               10.4 92.7 117.1 79.9 29.8 9.0 4.4 1.7200                                      0.8350           (NA)    1.0600
2035               10.3 90.4 116.9 81.3 30.1 9.2 4.4 1.7140                                      0.8320           (NA)    1.0600
2036               10.2 88.5 116.7 82.4 30.4 9.3 4.3 1.7090                                      0.8296           (NA)    1.0600
2037               10.2 86.9 116.5 83.2 30.8 9.4 4.2 1.7050                                      0.8277           (NA)    1.0600
2038               10.1 85.7 116.4 83.7 31.2 9.5 4.2 1.7020                                      0.8262           (NA)    1.0600
2039               10.1 85.3 116.3 84.0 31.6 9.5 4.2 1.7010                                      0.8257           (NA)    1.0600
2040               10.1 84.9 116.2 84.2 31.9 9.5 4.4 1.7000                                      0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2041               10.0 82.9 116.4 85.5 32.7 9.7 4.5 1.7000                                      0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2042                9.9 80.9 116.6 86.6 33.3 9.8 4.6 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)     1.0600
2043                9.8 78.9 116.7 87.7 33.9 10.0 4.7 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2044                9.7 76.8 116.9 88.7 34.5 10.2 4.7 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2045                9.6 74.7 117.1 89.7 35.1 10.4 4.8 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2046                9.5 72.5 117.3 90.8 35.7 10.6 4.8 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2047                9.4 70.3 117.5 91.9 36.2 10.8 4.9 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2048                9.3 68.1 117.7 93.0 36.6 11.0 5.0 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2049                9.2 65.9 118.0 94.2 37.0 11.2 5.2 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
2050                9.1 63.7 118.2 95.4 37.4 11.4 5.3 1.7000                                     0.8252           (NA)    1.0600
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ---------- ------------- ------------- -----------
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International
       Data Base.
            Total         Gross            Net            Sex ratio
            fertility     reproduction     reproduction   at birth
            rate per      rate per         rate per       (males per
woman       woman         woman            female)

         2.2        1.052           1.09
           2        0.956           1.09
        1.82         0.87           1.09
        1.81        0.865           1.09
        1.79        0.856           1.09
        1.76        0.841           1.09
        1.78        0.851           1.09
-19.%      Change, 1996 from 1990
-2.%      Change, 1996 from 1993
U#S# Bureau of the Census, International Data Base         F2           F3          F4         F5

Table 010. Infant Mort Rates & Life Exp at Birth, by Sex

                                                                                                Life
Country or area/                                               IMR           IMR        IMR expectancy
Year                                                       both sexes        male     female both sexes
China
                                                           28.92        26.06       32.03      71.38
2000
----------------
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International
       Data Base.

                                                                                     0.96797
F6         F7



   Life       Life
expectancy expectancy
   male      female

69.60      73.33
                   Census,      Deaths       Net number of
U#S# Bureau of the Births International Data Base              Rate of natural     Growth rate
                   per 1,000   per 1,000     migrants per      increase            percent
                   population population 1000 population       percent

             1990        21.18        7.11             -0.45               1.407         1.362
             1991        19.66        6.96             -0.44                1.27         1.226
             1992         18.2        6.86             -0.44               1.134          1.09
             1993        18.08         6.8             -0.43               1.128         1.084
             1994        17.69        6.77             -0.43               1.092          1.05
             1995        17.06        6.75             -0.42               1.031          0.99
             1996         16.4        6.71             -0.42               0.969         0.927
             1997        16.38         6.7             -0.42               0.968         0.927
             1998        16.28         6.7             -0.41               0.958         0.917
             1999        16.23        6.71             -0.41               0.952         0.911
             2000        16.12        6.73              -0.4               0.939         0.899
             2001        15.95        6.74             -0.39               0.921         0.881
             2002        15.85        6.77             -0.38               0.908          0.87
             2003        15.42         6.8             -0.37               0.862         0.824
             2004        14.94        6.83             -0.36               0.811         0.775
             2005        14.55        6.87             -0.35               0.768         0.733
             2006        14.17        6.89             -0.34               0.728         0.694
             2007        14.03        6.93             -0.33                0.71         0.677
             2008        13.69        6.98             -0.32               0.671         0.639
             2009        13.34        7.03             -0.31               0.631            0.6
             2010        13.12        7.08              -0.3               0.604         0.574
             2011        12.99        7.11             -0.29               0.588         0.559
             2012        12.99        7.16             -0.28               0.583         0.556
             2013           13        7.22             -0.27               0.578          0.55
             2014        13.04        7.27             -0.26               0.577          0.55
             2015        13.09        7.33             -0.26               0.576          0.55
             2016        13.11        7.37             -0.25               0.574          0.55
             2017        12.97        7.42             -0.24               0.555         0.531
             2018        12.88         7.5             -0.23               0.538         0.515
             2019        12.81        7.56             -0.22               0.525         0.503
             2020         12.7        7.63             -0.21               0.507         0.485
      Deaths per 1000 pop. 2000-2020
                                       deaths


7.8

7.6

7.4

7.2

 7

6.8

6.6

6.4

6.2
     Births vs. Deaths per 1000 population 2000-2020   deaths
                                                       births
    17
    16
    15
    14
    13
    12
    11
#




    10
     9
     8
     7
     6
     5
     4
                   Births per 1000 population, 2000-2020

              18


              16


              14


              12
# of births




              10


               8


               6


               4


               2


               0
                    China's Population Growth Rates 2000 - 2020

               1

              0.9

              0.8

              0.7

              0.6
growth rate




              0.5

              0.4

              0.3

              0.2

              0.1

               0


                                          year

				
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