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					Business surveys in South Africa: an analysis of non-
                 response patterns




                    Pieter Laubscher
                   14 November 2005

 Joint EC-OECD Workshop on International Development
      of Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys
Introduction


    Recalculate the BER business survey results: 2001Q1
     to 2005Q1 (16 quarters): retail / mnf / b&c
        Business confidence
        Sales / production / building activity (volume)
        Price expectations / tendering competition
    Grouped respondents into three categories:
        Respond more than 80% of the time (Group A)
        Respond 60-80% of the time (Group B)
        Respond less than 60% of the time (Group C)
    Test association / disassociation between the results
     of the three groups:
        Scatter plot / correlation / X2-test / statistical analysis
    Conclusions
BER response patterns


                  Response
Group                        Retail   Mnf     B&C
                   pattern
All 16 qtrs        100%      7.1%     5.4%    5.8%

Regulars (A)       ≥ 80%     18.5%    15.5%   16.1%

Irregulars (B)     60-80%    23.4%    20.7%   21.1%

Occasionals (C)    ≤ 60%     58.1%    63.8%   62.8%

TOTAL:                        406      478     261
Retail business confidence: 2001-5
                            Retail - Conf_A vs CONF_B vs CONF_C
                                        Scatterplot
                        (Lines : Distance Weighted Least Squares)
        110

        100

        90

        80

        70
Index




        60

        50

        40

        30

        20
                                                                              Conf _A
        10
                                                                              Conf _B
              01q2   01q4      02q2    02q4    03q2    03q4     04q2   04q4
                                                                              Conf _C
                                              Survey
Manufacturing business confidence:
2001-5
                    Manufacuring - Conf_A vs Conf_B vs CONF_C
                                           Scatterplot
                            (Lines : Distance Weighted Least Squares)
        90


        80


        70


        60
Index




        50


        40


        30


        20

                                                                                 Conf_A
        10
                                                                                 Conf_B
             01q2    01q4      02q2     02q4     03q2     03q4     04q2   04q4
                                                                                 Conf_C
                                                Survey
Building contractors business
confidence: 2001-5
                     Building - Conf_A vs Conf_B vs Conf_C
                                        Scatterplot
                        (Lines : Distance Weighted Least Squares)
        110

        100

        90

        80

        70
Index




        60

        50

        40

        30

        20
                                                                              Conf_A
        10
                                                                              Conf_B
              01q2   01q4   02q2     02q4     03q2     03q4     04q2   04q4
                                                                              Conf_C
                                             Survey
Question: Business confidence

 Correlation:   Retail    Mnf     B&C
 A:B             0.6      0.6      0.9
 A:C             0.2      0.5      0.9
 B:C             0.3      0.6      0.9


 X2-test:       Retail    Mnf     B&C
 H0: A ≠ B      Accept   Accept   Reject
 H0: A ≠ C      Accept   Accept   Reject
 H0: B ≠ C      Accept   Accept   Accept
Question: Volume of business

 Correlation:   Retail    Mnf     B&C
 A:B             0.3      0.4      0.9
 A:C             -0.1     0.3      0.8
 B:C             -0.1     0.2      0.8


 X2-test:       Retail    Mnf     B&C
 H0: A ≠ B      Accept   Accept   Reject
 H0: A ≠ C      Accept   Accept   Reject
 H0: B ≠ C      Accept   Accept   Accept
Retail price expectations: 2001-5

                      Retail - Price_A vs Price_B vs Price_C
                                        Scatterplot
                        (Lines : Distance Weighted Least Squares)
        120

        100

        80

        60

        40
Index




        20

         0

        -20

        -40

        -60
                                                                             Price_A
        -80
                                                                             Price_B
              01q2   01q4   02q2     02q4     03q2     03q4    04q2   04q4
                                                                             Price_C
                                             Survey
Manufacturing price expectations:
2001-5
                     Manufacturing - Price_A vs Price_B vs Price_C
                                          Scatterplot
                           (Lines : Distance Weighted Least Squares)
        120

        100

        80

        60

        40
Index




        20

         0

        -20

        -40

                                                                                Price_A
        -60
                                                                                Price_B
              01q2      01q4   02q2     02q4     03q2     03q4    04q2   04q4
                                                                                Price_C
                                                Survey
Building contractors tendering
competition: 2001-5
                     Building - Price_A vs Price_B vs Price_C
                                        Scatterplot
                        (Lines : Distance Weighted Least Squares)
        70


        60


        50


        40
Index




        30


        20


        10


         0

                                                                             Price_A
        -10
                                                                             Price_B
              01q2   01q4   02q2     02q4    03q2     03q4     04q2   04q4
                                                                             Price_C
                                            Survey
Question: Price expectations / tendering
competition

 Correlation:   Retail     Mnf       B&C
 A:B             0.7       0.8        0.8
 A:C             0.5       0.6        0.3
 B:C             0.7       0.6        0.4


 X2-test:       Retail     Mnf       B&C
 H0: A ≠ B      Accept    Reject     Reject
 H0: A ≠ C      Accept    Accept     Reject
 H0: B ≠ C      Accept    Accept     Accept
Conclusions

                            Retail     Mnf       B&C
 Business confidence          D         D         A
 Volume of business           D         D         A
 Price expectations           D         A         A


   Meaningful disassociation, particularly in retail & mnf
    surveys and wrt question on business confidence and
    price expectations
   Implication: non-response affects the quality of the
    survey results
   Non-response is an issue in BER BTS – needs to be
    investigated further / corrected for
Bureau for Economic Research
Economic information that works
            for you

   Website: www.ber.sun.ac.za
   E-mail: pl@ber.sun.ac.za
   Tel No: 021-887 2810

				
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