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					Population Growth and
Economic Development: Causes,
Consequences, and Controversies
  Chapter 6
The Basic Issue: Population
Growth and Quality of Life
   Six major issues:
    – Will developing countries be able to
      improve levels of living given anticipated
      population growth?
    – How will developing countries deal with the
      vast increases in their labor forces?
    – How will higher population growth rates
      affect poverty?
The Basic Issue: Population
Growth and Quality of Life
   Six major issues (cont’d):
    – Will developing countries be able to extend
      the coverage and improve the quality of
      health care and education in the face of
      rapid population growth?
    – Is there a relationship between poverty and
      family size?
    – How does affluence in the developed world
      affect the ability of developing countries to
      provide for their people?
A Review of the Numbers:
Population Growth - Past,
Present, and Future
   A brief history of human population
    growth
A Review of the Numbers:
Population Growth - Past,
Present, and Future
   A brief history of human population
    growth
   Structure of the world’s population
A Review of the Numbers:
Population Growth - Past,
Present, and Future
   A brief history of human population
    growth
   Structure of the world’s population
   The hidden momentum of population
    growth
The Demographic Transition

   Stage I: high birthrates and death rates
   Stage II: continued high birthrates,
    declining death rates
   Stage III: falling birthrates and death
    rates, eventually stabilizing
The Causes of High Fertility in
Developing Countries: The
Malthusian Model
   The Malthusian population trap
The Causes of High Fertility in
Developing Countries: The
Malthusian Model

   The Malthusian population trap
   Criticisms of Malthus’ model
The Causes of High Fertility in
Developing Countries: The
Household Model

   The microeconomic household theory of
    fertility
Demand for Children Equation
Cd  f (Y , Pc, Px, tx), x  1,...,n
 Where
      Cd is the demand for surviving children
      Y is the level of household income
      Pc is the “net” price of children
      Px is price of all other goods
      tx is the tastes for goods relative to children
Demand for Children Equation
Cd  f (Y , Pc, Px, tx), x  1,...,n
  Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

   Cd                       Cd
       0                        0
   Y                        Px
   Cd                       Cd
       0                        0
   Pc                       tx
The Causes of High Fertility in
Developing Countries: The
Household Model

   The microeconomic household theory of
    fertility
   The demand for children in developing
    countries
   Some empirical evidence
   Implications for development and fertility
The Consequences of High
Fertility: Some Conflicting
Opinions
   Population growth isn’t a real problem
The Consequences of High
Fertility: Some Conflicting
Opinions
   Population growth isn’t a real problem
   Overpopulation is a deliberately
    contrived false issue
   Population growth is a desirable
    phenomenon
   Population growth is a real problem
   The empirical argument: the negative
    consequences of population growth
Goals and Objectives: Toward a
Consensus
   Despite the conflicting opinions, there is
    some common ground
Some Policy Approaches

   What developing countries can do
Some Policy Approaches

   What developing countries can do
   What the developed countries can do:
    resources, population, and the global
    environment
   How developed countries can assist
    developing countries
Concepts for Review

   Birthrate            Fertility
   Death rate           Hidden momentum
   Demographic           of population growth
    transition           Infant mortality rate
   Doubling time        Life expectancy at
   Empowerment of        birth
    women                Malthusian
   Family-planning       population trap
    programs
Concepts for Review, cont’d

   Microeconomic            Positive checks
    theory of fertility      Preventative checks
   Mortality                Rate of population
   Natural increase          increase
   Net international        Reproductive choice
    migration                Total fertility rate
   Population-poverty       Youth dependency
    cycle                     ratio
   Population pyramid

				
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