Democracy and Globalization Nineteen Eighty-nine by yurtgc548


									Democracy and Globalization: Nineteen Eighty-nine and the
                                 "Third Wave"
                                  By Jarle Simensen

Nineteen eighty-nine stands out as a dramatic divide in contemporary history, in some
respects comparable to the French Revolution two hundred years earlier, in some to
the "spring of nations" in 1848. The fall of communism in Eastern Europe, the end of
the Cold War, and the subsequent dissolution of the Soviet Union inaugurated a new
era in international relations. But the political transformations that took place around
1989 were global in their range. Parallel to the events in Europe a process of
democratic reform ran its course in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. By the beginning
of the 1980s most Latin American countries were under some form of military rule;
by 1992 all except two had elected heads of state. As late as the beginning of 1989,
thirty-eight out of forty-five African countries were under military or one-party
regimes, and in the opinion of a prominent Africanist writing at that time, it was
"unlikely that new African democracies will be created in the coming years." 1 Two
years later thirty-one African countries had become multiparty states with elected
assemblies. In Asia similar pressures for democratic reform were increasing, from the
overthrow of the Marcos regime in the Philippines in 1986, to the first free elections
in South Korea and Taiwan in 1987, and to the democratic risings in China and
Thailand in 1989 and 1992. 2 [End Page 391]

This is what Samuel Huntington has called "the third wave of democratization in the
modern era." 3 In his scheme of periodization, the first wave started with the
revolutions in the Americas in the early nineteenth century and culminated with the
establishment of the new democracies at the end of World War I. The second wave is
represented by the Allied victory in 1945 and the subsequent decolonization process
in the Third World. Both waves, however, were followed by reverse movements
toward authoritarianism. The third wave began with the fall of the dictatorships in
Spain and Portugal in 1975-76 and culminated in the years immediately after 1989.
On the face of it, the extent of this wave is impressive: the number of democratic
countries--we will return to definitions--rose from 78 to 138, and the percentage of
democracies out of the total number of countries rose from 44% to 72%.

However, the notion of a "third wave" needs to be broken up. The process of
democratization differed in rhythm and chronology. In Latin America several
countries had experienced a pendulum change between forms of democracy and
authoritarianism ever since independence in the nineteenth century, and the "third
wave" there had already begun in the first half of the 1980s, influenced inter alia by
the events in Spain and Portugal. In Asia as well, the pressure for democratic reform
was, as we have seen, apparent before 1989, stimulated by specific local conditions.
The form of political transition also varied. The authoritarian starting points differed:
one-party systems, military regimes, personal dictatorships. Further, Huntington
differentiates among three broad types of political change: "transformation," with the
regime in control of the process, as in Hungary, Spain, and several Latin American
countries; [End Page 392] "replacement," where opposition groups took the lead and
the authoritarian regimes collapsed or were overthrown, as in the Philippines,
Argentina, East Germany, and Romania; and finally "transplacement," when
democratization resulted from joint action by government and opposition groups, as in
the Round Table arrangements of Eastern Europe.

Finally, it is necessary to distinguish among results, for there are many forms of
democracy. A minimum criterion is multiparty elections to a national assembly. But
examples abound as to how this can be combined with various forms of
discrimination against political opposition, manipulations at elections, curtailment of
personal freedoms, limited constitutional powers for the assembly, and continued
privileges for military or oligarchic elites. The concepts of "militarized democracies"
in Latin America and "authoritarian democracies" in Asia indicate the limitations of
such "formal democracies." There is a clear contrast between these and what we may
call "real democracies" or "liberal democracies," based on plural societies, rule of law,
a neutral military, and personal freedoms. 4

The third wave was divided almost equally between the two categories of democracy
up to the culmination in 1992. Since that time there has again been a reverse
development, in that many formal democracies, especially in Africa and the former
Soviet Union, have fallen back into forms of authoritarian rule. Thus, between 1992
and 1995 the number of authoritarian countries increased from 38 to 53, the
percentage of such countries going up from 20% to 28% of the total.

Still, the reduction from 44% of countries being classified as nondemocratic before
the third wave is significant. 5 And even if the third wave can be broken down into
separate regional processes, each country in the final resort having its own variation
of the story, there remains the problem of global extension and confluence in time,
particularly the culmination around 1989.

An interesting point of departure is the fact that the democratic revolutions,
particularly the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, [End Page 393] seemed to
take everybody by surprise, political leaders as well as academic observers. 6 This
naturally became a cause of concern, not least in the discipline of political science,
with its ambition toward generalization and prognosis. But so-called structural history
was also touched by the problem. An interesting debate has since taken place in
political science, mainly dealing with the consequences of 1989 for theory in the
discipline. 7 The events in Eastern Europe have been extensively studied from the
perspective of several disciplines, including history. 8 Similarly, democratic reform in
the Third World has been amply dealt with, particularly in political science, mainly in
the form of separate regional studies. 9 In comparison, there has been little attention to
the global nature of the change around 1989 and little comparative research on the
reform process in the different regions.

The argument of the present article is that the democratization processes around 1989
can only be fully understood against a background of global systemic and normative
integration. The social science literature on globalization is enormous and rapidly
growing, and the article does not aim to encompass and survey this theoretical field. 10
Instead, the aim is more pragmatic: namely, to draw on such [End Page 394] theories
of globalization as may help to explain 1989. But let us start by briefly reviewing
some traditional approaches to the explanation of 1989.
International Relations, Modernization, and Diffusion
International relations as a subdiscipline of political science developed during the
Cold War, and in America (and Scandinavia) was dominated by the schools of realism
and neo-realism. They took the sovereign nation-state as the basic unit of analysis and
emphasized the struggle for power and security in an anarchic international system
determined by mutual threat perceptions. In contrast, the so-called English school in
international relations put more emphasis on international law and institutions,
justifying the concept of "international society." 11

Up to a point the realist approach can explain what happened around 1989: the new
armament spiral during the 1980s proved the superior economic and technological
power of the United States and clearly made even Soviet military leaders aware that
internal reform was needed to protect superpower status. The new conciliatory policy
toward the West implied that Soviet forces would not be used to protect the regimes
of east-central Europe, a necessary precondition for the subsequent victory of the
democratic revolutions. However, realist theory, with its concentration on relations
between states, had little to say about the domestic reasons for the weakening and
final dissolution of the Soviet Union--namely, nationalism, liberal ideas, and social
movements. The same could be said about Eastern European studies in general; they
had concentrated on regimes, elites, and interstate relations under Soviet hegemony to
the neglect of Eastern European society, from where the democratic reform
movements rose. 12

In the Third World the end of the Cold War and the fall of the [End Page 395] Soviet
Union drastically weakened economic and military support for Marxist regimes and
undermined the prestige of the socialist model of development. The Americans, on
their side, reduced their support of authoritarian regimes that had been their allies
during the Cold War, particularly in Latin America, and in some cases began pressing
for reform, as in Chile after 1985 and in Zaire and Kenya in the early 1990s. All Third
World regimes lost international bargaining power when the Cold War ended.
However, economic and political reform in Latin America and Asia, as noted above,
had started well before 1989. Thus the end of the Cold War cannot be considered
either a necessary precondition or a sufficient cause for the democratization in these
regions, even if it accelerated the process.

An alternative approach has been to invoke general modernization theory. One
example is Jürgen Kocka's analysis of the events in Eastern Europe: a modern
industrial economy, whether of a socialist or capitalist nature, will create social
groups, particularly middle strata, that even under authoritarian regimes will develop
new networks and proceed to demand space for nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs) and political participation. Moshe Lewin provides a similar explanation of
the background to Gorbachev's reforms. 13 The formula is simple: in the long run
modernization points toward democracy, although history provides numerous
examples of periods of modernization under authoritarian rule.

This is a theory of global relevance--although Kocka is hesitant on this point.
Middle-class groups of liberal inclination spearheaded the reform movements in Latin
America during the 1980s, in shifting alliances with labor and popular forces. New
middle classes also played an important role in the opposition against authoritarian
regimes in East and Southeast Asia, from the Philippines in 1985 to Thailand in 1992.
Developments in China raised the question of whether it would be possible for a
communist regime to carry out economic reforms without losing political control--that
is, modernization without democracy. A special variant of modernization logic, of
particular relevance to developments in Eastern Europe, refers to the demands of the
new information technology for openness, flexibility, and decentralization to be fully
productive. This was a logic accepted by Gorbachev when [End Page 396] he
introduced his glasnost campaign, and it stood in striking contrast to the 1950s and
1960s, when there was a widespread belief, held also in the West, that centralized
management of the economy was a key to accelerated development.

But modernization theory, relating to separate but parallel national processes, can
only take us part of the way toward explaining 1989. The main problem is that the
level of modernization differed too widely among the main regions to explain the
global and simultaneous character of the democratic reform movements. Thus African
democratic risings, although led by oppositional elite groups, did not have much of a
modern middle class for their support, but relied mainly on students and the urban

In the case of Eastern Europe, modernization theory fails to explain the abrupt nature
of the events of 1989. Thus Kocka concludes that other causes must be considered in
order to explain the unexpected: the Tocqueville effect (classes on the rise spurred on
to revolution by concessions from the regime), the role of personalities, the autonomy
of the political sphere, and the effect of external events on national developments. In
addition, he makes the important point that history is a "probability discipline";
human behavior and historical process can never be wholly explained by causal
statements. The past must be given back some of the openness of the present.
A third prevalent explanation for the global wave of democratization around 1989 is
diffusion. To stress the importance of external impulses in setting off the various
national revolutions is to state the obvious, for in this respect 1989 was no different
from 1789, 1848, 1918--and 1968. But in comparison to the past, television provided
a powerful new instrument of diffusion. This manifested itself most dramatically in
the chain reactions in Eastern Europe. Similarly, television images from the risings in
Eastern Europe and China were transmitted to the rest of the world with immediate
effect. In Cameroon the local police was dubbed "Securitate," and in Togo students
named their square of demonstration in the capital "Tienanmen."

But it is difficult to define the specific causal effect of the mass media in setting off
the risings; the seed must have a fertile soil if it is to strike root. 14 Nobody will claim
that external impulses were a sufficient cause of the democratic risings in and after
1989, in the manner [End Page 397] that an infection can be a sufficient cause of an
inflammation. But external impulses must be given weight as contributory and
releasing factors, important to the timing of events.

Our preliminary conclusion must be that neither international relations, modernization,
nor diffusion can give a full explanation of the similar and largely simultaneous
processes of democratization in the different regions of the world around 1989. We
need to transcend the notions of an international system of sovereign states, of
separate national processes of modernization, and of diffusion as a transmission of
impulses across state borders. To explain 1989 satisfactorily, we must in addition
introduce the notions of international society and global society. This implies inter
alia that the sharp distinction between internal and external causes of national
development is modified and replaced by a notion of interaction within larger
systems--ultimately, global society--with a range of actors beside the state, from
multinational corporations and networks of private organizations to international
media and institutions.

The discussion about the concept of "society" is an old one in the social sciences. We
have mentioned the English school in international relations, with its emphasis on the
rules and institutions created by the states in their dealings with each other: this is
what justifies the notion of international society as something different from an
anarchic system of sovereign national states. It can be argued that the rules and
institutions of the world market must come under the same category of international
society. The term global society or world society, in contrast, is commonly used to
refer to a deeper integration, including norms, culture, and networks of private
organizations--the beginnings of a global civil society. The importance of such norms
in international relations is emphasized in particular by the classical liberal and radical
schools in the social sciences, which profess an explicit normative agenda under the
lodestars of liberty and justice. 15
Against this background we are now ready to consider how the events of 1989 were
embedded in material and normative systems created by an accelerating process of
global integration. [End Page 398]

Nineteen Eighty-nine and Economic Globalization
Failure of economic performance within an increasingly globalized economy can be
considered the most general underlying cause behind the demise of authoritarian
regimes around 1989.

The expansion of the world market has been common currency in the discipline of
history, with special attention to its development under the liberal international regime
before 1914 and its new period of expansion under the Bretton Woods institutions
after 1945. 16 However, from the 1970s onward it is possible to talk of a breakthrough
in integration, driven by new technologies in the fields of transport, communication,
and production, and above all by the new information technology. The volume of
exports in relation to gross domestic product roughly doubled from 1960 to 1990; the
stock of international bank lending increased tenfold from 1980 to 1990; and at the
same time liberalization and new technology increased capital mobility enormously.
A radical new feature was the internationalization of production through the
multinational corporations. The IMF rose in importance in its role as a global lender
of last resort and a global financial watchdog. All of this meant that weak economic
performance was quickly punished by the global market. Considering that this had
consequences for welfare and living standards in the countries concerned, it was
bound to have political consequences as well. Let us look more closely at the effects
in the different regions.

The global context is now increasingly emphasized in explaining the political collapse
in Eastern Europe. 17 True, the socialist camp had been largely sealed off from the
capitalist world market, but it had always presented itself as an alternative to the
doomed capitalist system: "catch up with and overtake the West" had been a standard
slogan since Khrushchev. When the Western system then proved to be superior in all
regards, from information technology to basic consumer goods, this was bound to
have serious consequences for the legitimacy [End Page 399] of the regime and for
the self-confidence of the ruling elite. A guiding idea for Gorbachev was that
reintegration in the global economy was the only way to obtain new technology and
break out of stagnation. For the first time in Soviet history sizable loans were taken up
in the West, and the IMF began to loom large on the horizon. In the late 1980s the
Soviet Union had an import rate of 12% of GDP, the same as the United States,
mainly trading with other socialist countries, but increasingly with the West as well.
Membership in the international trade agreement, GATT (now the World Trade
Organization, WTO), became a high political priority. In this situation political reform
was a necessity, to achieve not only economic productivity, but also international
credit-worthiness. But Gorbachev had underestimated the forces he let loose: the
frustrated nationalities, popular disillusionment, and the democratic movements in the
satellite states in east-central Europe.

In explaining the crises in the Third World, the relevance of globalization is even
more apparent. Both Latin America and the earlier colonies in Africa and Asia had
seen a tendency toward authoritarian governments and state-directed, protected
national economies after World War II, justified by current development theory and
favored by elites eager to milk the economy for personal profit. The standard
problems of political decay and low productivity in authoritarian states then appeared
from the 1970s, and state finance went out of control in one country after another in
Latin America and Africa. Currency manipulations and uninhibited printing of money
led to hyper-inflation, destructive of the legitimacy of any regime.

The crises in the 1980s were set off by the confrontation with the realities of the
global economy in the form of the debt problem. Here the steep rise in oil prices after
1973 had a crucial, double effect. The flood of petro-dollars pumped new lending
capacity into the global capital system, leading to reckless lending and borrowing. At
the same time the increased oil import bill took a larger share of the foreign currency
earnings of poor countries. Combined with falling prices on other raw materials and
fluctuating dollar values, this brought the malfunctioning national economies in Latin
America and Africa into bankruptcy, starting with the Mexican declaration of
nonpayment in 1982.

The ensuing rescue operations, in the form of joint action by the threatened American
banks, the IMF, and the U.S. government, provided a vivid illustration of the new
level of interdependence in the global economy. The conditions imposed by the IMF
and the World Bank in the form of financial discipline, realistic budgets, and
economic liberalization represented a degree of international intervention [End Page
400] unheard of since the days of informal imperialism in the Middle East and China
in the nineteenth century. African critics talked of "recolonization." 18

The connection between economic and political reform was not straightforward. The
IMF and World Bank were initially satisfied to see structural adjustment implemented
by authoritarian regimes, as in the case of Pinochet's Chile in the early 1980s; a strong
regime might be best suited to carry out the unpopular measures needed. However,
after the fall of communism and with the pressure for democratization from different
quarters, the IMF and World Bank also began to include human rights and multiparty
democracy among their conditions. The pressure increased when bilateral aid donors
lined up behind the international financial institutions. When large-scale credit and aid
was withheld from President Arap Moi in Kenya in 1991, it did not take long before
multiparty elections were conceded.

The austerity programs imposed by the IMF predictably led to increased popular
discontent; thus there were revolts in a dozen African countries in 1989. But it is not
easy to unravel the various threads that went into these risings. Urban discontent with
worsening material conditions, particularly the removal of food subsidies, was
politically dangerous. There was a widespread exasperation with despotic
governments. Demonstrators combined demands for democratic elections with protest
against the IMF and foreign influence in general. 19 When elected regimes took over
responsibility for the austerity programs, this in turn became a strain on their
legitimacy, which was part of the explanation for the backlash against liberal reform,
both in Eastern Europe and the Third World. But by the early 1990s democratic
reform had become a precondition for credit-worthiness in the world market. Previous
Marxist governments, as in Angola and Mozambique, announced multiparty elections
on the eve of their departure to Washington to negotiate loans with the World Bank.
[End Page 401]

Nineteen Eighty-nine and Normative Globalization
Local economic crisis arising from the confrontation with a globalized economy could
not in itself provide a program for democratic reform. At this point it is necessary to
set the events of 1989 in the context of "global society," with its emphasis on
normative integration and coordinated democratic action.

First, it is extraordinary to note that all the roughly 190 discrete, "sovereign" units in
the international system are organized according to the same nation-state model, with
the same paraphernalia and the same claim to international status; in this sense, global
political culture, including nationalism, has been homogenized to a surprising degree.
Second, the international state system has produced an ever-increasing number of
common institutions, at both the regional and global levels--military, economic, and
cultural--with the United Nations family as the most conspicuous, although not the
most effective. The growth of international law and institutions for its promotion may
be taken to be the most substantial expression of global normative integration.
International conventions regulate ever more sectors, and the U.N. Declaration of
Human Rights has become a universally recognized code, even if interpretations
differ, as demonstrated at the World Conference for Human Rights in Vienna in 1994.
In Eastern Europe it was of material importance that human rights were written into
the Helsinki Accord of 1975; thus the stipulations about free travel were immediately
used by opposition groups in Eastern Europe. Regard for the Helsinki Accord might
also have spelled the end to the Brezhnev doctrine of the right of intervention in
defense of threatened communist regimes. 20

Throughout the 1990s, we have even seen the principle of nonintervention set aside
(Somalia, Rwanda, Bosnia, and most recently Kosovo, with NATO as the
self-appointed agent in a situation with a dead-locked Security Council), with the
argument that the rights of individuals must override the rights of states. In other
words, the nation-states have created institutions and procedures that undermine [End
Page 402] their own sovereignty or--put differently--trade some of their sovereignty
for supra-national coordination and influence. International opinion, under direct
influence from the mass media, increasingly demands intervention, not only in
humanitarian but also in political crises.

When we come to the political actors behind the democratic movements, the concept
of a global society based on normative integration becomes immediately relevant.
True, political opposition and revolts were aimed at national regimes, and the civic
organizations that took a leading role had developed in symbiosis with the nation-state.
However, international networks between NGOs had existed from the nineteenth
century and had fostered an increasing awareness of common values. After 1945
NGOs became significant actors in international politics, recognized as such in the
study of international relations. During the 1990s their role was strengthened by the
so-called "forums" for NGOs held at the many international conferences devoted to
global problems: Environment and Development in Rio in 1992, Human Rights in
Vienna in 1994, and Security and Cooperation in Europe in 1995. We are observing a
basic mechanism in the development of a global society--namely, the dialectic
between the state and civil society, at both the national and global levels.

In east-central Europe the ground for 1989 had been prepared by Solidarity, Charta-77,
the Hungarian reform movement, and the muted East German opposition. Churches,
peace organizations, environmental groups, and informal networks made up the
special profile of the "velvet revolutions" of Eastern Europe, easing the transition to
democratic rule by forming negotiating bodies acceptable to the authorities in the
form of the so-called Round Tables. Their immediate link-up with parallel groups in
the West was an important feature of developments in 1989. In the Soviet Union the
antinuclear and peace movement of the 1980s, with its close East-West coordination,
was of particular importance. It created new space for political debate by being able to
play on official Soviet peace and disarmament ideology.

Civic organizations played a particularly important role in the democratization
process in Latin America, keeping up their criticism of the military regimes and
utilizing their international connections to the full. Civil society on a European model
was an integral part of the political tradition in this region, and even military regimes
tended to regard democratic government as the ideal and their own rule as
time-limited emergency operations. When left-wing groups and guerrilla movements
were weakened by the dwindling of Soviet support during the late 1980s and
American support of authoritarian regimes was [End Page 403] withdrawn, the road
was open to a controlled transition to civilian rule--a reform process with its own
profile, compared to the revolutions in Eastern Europe and the popular risings in

There were parallels in South Africa, where the political culture of white society was
basically liberal, and where the disenfranchised and suppressed nonwhite population
also had a long tradition of civic organizations, with churches as the most active. The
Catholic Church openly flouted apartheid legislation, and black trade unions were
recognized by the government. The regime's desire for political legitimacy in the
West and the strain of having the status of a political outcast must be part of the
explanation why apartheid gradually was abandoned. When the ban on multiracial
political organization was lifted in 1984, the United Democratic Front could spring up
almost overnight, and its new suppression two years later proved to be the last frantic
measure before the dike burst in 1990. But here as well the disappearance of the
communist menace and the consequent weakening of the African National Congress
was a precondition for the start of the reform process. 21

In black Africa economic weakness and dependence meant that the regimes were
particularly vulnerable to external pressure once international norms of democracy
and human rights were activated. The reports of Amnesty International and the
International Commission of Jurists were of great influence. The latter played a
leading part in arranging conferences of lawyers and journalists to prepare the ground
for a Charter of Human Rights, which was finally adopted--in a castrated form--by the
Organization of African Unity in 1990. And once the demands for elected government
were unleashed, international networks immediately went into play: when President
Kaunda resisted demands for multiparty elections in Zambia in 1990-91, the
international trade union movement mobilized, and when the IMF and bilateral aid
organizations at the same time threw their weight behind the demand, Kaunda was
forced to concede. 22

Compared to their role in Latin America and Africa, it may seem that NGOs with
international networks played a less important part [End Page 404] in East and
Southeast Asia. In many countries the emerging "authoritarian democracies" stressed
the importance of control and collective duties, rather than individual rights and
unlimited freedom. The former prime minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, was a
prominent spokesman for this view--in a would-be Confucian tradition--insisting that
economic reform must come before political freedom; the Soviet Union was wrong
and China right.

Let us return to the question of the social basis of the democratic movements: is it
possible on this point to identify global patterns created by a universal modernization
process? Eric Hobsbawm, with his ambition to write global social history, finds a
common precondition for the political risings around 1989 in what he calls "the
growing urbanization of the globe." In his structural interpretation the world at the
end of the twentieth century is in a state of social crisis, including an increasing
political gap between rulers and ruled. 23 The middle classes that mobilized in citizen
movements clearly had common features in all regions of the world--logically enough,
given the universal character of modern higher education and the employment of its
candidates in the bureaucracies and economies of the modern homogenized
nation-state. Immanuel Wallerstein finds a common cause behind 1989 in the squeeze
on the middle classes, which in the golden years of the world economy after 1945 had
been inflated far beyond what the productive base could carry and which after the
recession of the 1970s in many countries found the ground cut from under their feet.

Students and intellectuals had continuously drawn attention to the lack of democratic
rights under military dictatorships in Asia and Latin America. African universities
were in a state of frequent turmoil, and students and intellectuals were
overrepresented among political prisoners. In the risings around 1989 students were
often in the vanguard, regularly so in Africa. The role of students in international
revolutionary movements is an old story, related to the international character of the
university, the capacity of the students for international communication, and their
mobile nature as a social group. 25 [End Page 405]

All aspects of systemic integration, including the globalized economy, naturally lead
to social integration in the form of personal contacts through trade, travel, tourism,
and employment in multinational corporations and international organizations. The
increasing number of people living in international communities, away from their own
nations, and frequently intermarrying across national and racial borders, might
represent the core of a cosmopolitan, global culture. The "new literature" in the
former colonial languages by authors who come from the Third World is an eloquent
manifestation of new cultural forms transcending national cultures. 26 Exile
communities in many cases played an important role in international link-ups in 1989.
However, the effect of mass migration on normative integration is highly ambiguous
and reminds us of the contradictory nature of globalization.

Global consciousness is clearly most in evidence among elite groups, but not
exclusively so. The events in 1989 revealed the enormous attraction of Western mass
consumer society as a cultural model for broad strata of the population, both in
Eastern Europe and in the rest of the world. It meant that specific material standards,
styles, and products were taken as criteria for self-realization and a meaningful
modern life. The importance of this "demonstration effect" in the political
breakdowns of the socialist countries can scarcely be overestimated. Western popular
youth culture, as expressed in dress, style, and rock music (including its verbal
content), transmitted an aggressive message of personal freedom and opposition to
established norms.

The modern mass media have a special function in this connection. The media in their
material aspect represent systemic integration at the highest level. They provide
channels for diffusion of political impulses--as was amply demonstrated in 1989--and
they provide means of coordination during political actions. Tactics at Tienanmen
Square in 1989 were coordinated through telefax with student groups in America, and
television coverage was skillfully manipulated with an awareness of the global
audience. The later efforts of Chinese authorities to control access to the Internet--and
the problems they encountered in doing so--provide another example of the global
potential of electronic communication. It is no longer possible for the nation-state to
control the flow of information. Authoritarian regimes are relentlessly exposed to a
global audience, and the cost of repression in terms of international legitimacy is
constantly rising. [End Page 406]

In sociology much attention has been paid to the cultural aspects of the media
revolution. 27 Marshall McLuhan's vision of a "global village" no longer seem so
farfetched. CNN with its global coverage provides common images and
interpretations, and sets a global agenda. The English language in itself may promote
a global cultural homogenization in the form of a common discourse. Common
concepts structure perceptions of what constitutes a normal political culture:
democracy, welfare, and individual rights.

The most pointed statement of a belief in global normative integration is Francis
Fukuyama's "End of History?" article from 1989. 28 Inspired by Hegel's idealistic
interpretation of world history, Fukuyama regarded 1989 as a final victory in the
progress of the idea of freedom. True, there would be future conflicts, particularly in
the Third World, caused by religion and nationalism, and possibly a reversal to
aggressive, even fascist forms of nationalism in Russia. But these would be rearguard
actions until the victorious liberal idea had worked itself out fully (Fukuyama as well
did not in the summer of 1989 expect the imminent fall of the regimes in Eastern

Critical Perspectives
This treatment of globalization as a road toward a world society can be criticized as a
neo-liberal version of modernization theory writ large. As in all systems theory, there
is a danger of functionalism, and in historical theory a danger of teleology. For our
purpose--to explain the simultaneous and global appearance of democratic
movements around 1989--it has been natural to focus on integrative forces and
systems formation. But attention to globalization need not exclude other approaches.
In a broader perspective globalization is clearly a contradictory process, characterized
by both integration and fragmentation. We continue to live in a world of power, and
the state continues to be the most powerful international agent. In the world market
the triad of Japan, the United States, and the European Union is dominant, at times
verging on trade wars. Religion has again become a powerful force in international
politics: in Huntington's view this will be the [End Page 407] main dividing line in
the future conflict of "civilizations." Modernization is not a monolithic process, as can
be seen in the great regional and cultural variations of industrialization, in the
extremely complex and contesting forms of organization, and in the chaotic patterns
of international migration. In the political field the resurgence of ethnicity,
nationalism, and religious fundamentalism indicates the primary need for identity in
the face of globalizing modernity. Thus globalization creates its own counter-forces.

From a radical perspective, theories of globalization are particularly defective in their
awareness of inequalities and attention to concepts like capitalism, class, and
hegemony. 29 It is a striking fact that the problem of poverty is largely absent from
international relations studies, and that development studies have tended to become a
separate academic enclave. The most widely debated alternative approach remains
world      systems     theory,     whether     of   the     Braudel    version,    the
underdevelopment-dependency school, or the Wallerstein variety. Wallerstein's
original theory, based on the center-periphery dichotomy, is extremely functionalist
and one-dimensional in its emphasis on the capitalist system as the decisive force in
world society, determining not only the division of labor between geographical
regions but also the state system and even the cultural forms that best serve its
purpose. 30

However, Wallerstein has recently provided an interpretation of 1989 that points in
new directions: there is an alternative model of modernity to capitalism, one rooted in
the Enlightenment and emphasizing human freedom rather than material growth, and
the contradiction between those two versions of modernity underlie the moral and
institutional crisis of our time. 31 In this perspective Wallerstein regards 1989 as a
continuation of 1968, both "revolutions" representing [End Page 408] a protest
against the capitalist world system, Soviet "state capitalism" included, based on the
idea of "people's sovereignty." In all regions of the world, 1989 therefore represents,
not the triumph of liberalism, but a challenge against the classes that sustain the
capitalist world economy.

A similar, radical interpretation of 1989 is provided by Barry Gills and Joel Rocamora
under the heading of "low intensity democracy." 32 Here the new democracies in the
Third World are seen as the result of a global strategy by the United States as the
hegemonic power, together with local ruling classes, to preempt the revolutionary
potential of the 1989 risings. The new elected regimes only imply a shift of power
within the local ruling elites and a delinking of the middle classes from the alliance
with popular forces. The resulting new formal democracies are weak regimes, easily
controlled by the United States through the international financial institutions, thus
answering the needs of the global capitalist economy. True social reform has bleak
prospects, and far from a golden age of global democracy, the future may hold
economic chaos, deepening social conflicts, and neo-authoritarianism in much of the

New critical perspectives on globalization are also provided by writers influenced by
postmodern or poststructuralist views. "Modernization" has after all been the most
general and unifying "narrative" in modern world history. But in the postmodern
interpretation this narrative is a construction, a discourse based on Western hegemony
and force. Such narratives should be "deconstructed" and are in any case bound to
dissolve when new groups and regions arise with their own worldviews and
interpretations. When points of view in world history are shifted away from the West,
modernization is also cut loose from its roots and will be replaced by a concept of
multiple modernities. 33 From such a perspective, structural explanations of the 1989
movements, as pursued in the present article, might also be seen as a construction. But
the postmodern approach leaves us with the problem of the relative contemporaneity
of the democratic risings, which can [End Page 409] scarcely be explained by
reference to chance. 34 A possible alternative is to refer to zeitgeist: an international
revolutionary mood and discourse can activate local conflicts of different nature, as
happened in 1789, 1848, 1918, and 1945. Thus every democratic rising around 1989
should be studied as a separate phenomenon, a prescript congenial to history as an
"individualizing" discipline.

Samuel Huntington compares the third wave of democratization to the second--when
foreign imposition and decolonization formed the background--and concludes: "While
external influences were often significant causes of third wave democratizations, the
processes themselves were overwhelmingly indigenous." 35 The arguments of the
present article point in an altogether different direction. Evidently, the immediate
actors in the risings around the world were indigenous, and their actions were aimed
at local authorities. However, we have found common global patterns in the social
basis of the opposition to authoritarian regimes, with middle classes, students, and
urban popular groups predominating. If they were not conscious global classes für
sich they were at least products of largely similar material circumstances and subject
to the same international economic and political conjunctures. We have seen
historians like Hobsbawm and Wallerstein groping for explanation in a global social

Further, we have specified the role played by voluntary organizations in the
democratic oppositions, and we have put much emphasis on the international
networks and formalized cooperation between them. International NGOs, like
Amnesty International, clearly played an important part. Common to all these groups
and organizations, both local and international, was a consciousness of universal
democratic values that could translate into practical agendas for local political reform.
May we talk of a global civil society in embryo?

However, we have found the most general precondition for the democratic revolutions
in the economic bankruptcy of the authoritarian, state-directed economies,
dramatically revealed in their confrontation [End Page 410] with a globalized
economy in the form of the debt crisis. A new dimension was added when the IMF
and the World Bank, followed by bilateral aid agencies, added human rights and
multiparty elections to their conditions. This was certainly experienced as external
pressure, but the distinction between internal and external is not so easy to draw
within the framework of a globalized system.

The realist school in international studies, with its concept of an anarchic international
system dominated by the power struggle between sovereign states, can take us only
part of the way toward an explanation of the third wave of democratization. But the
change in power relations toward the end of the Cold War did, of course, weaken the
position of Marxist authoritarian regimes, and at the same time the United States
could now afford to abandon reactionary authoritarian allies. And external influence
in the form of media transmission of the images of the revolutions in Eastern Europe
and China must be given an important place in explaining the chain reactions,
particularly in Eastern Europe and Africa after 1989. Diffusion of revolutionary
moods and images was not a new thing in modern history.

The conclusion must be that the democratic revolutions around 1989 represent a topic
and a problem where the discipline of history needs to transcend its usual core
categories of the nation-state and the international state system. We need to adopt in
addition the concepts of "international society" and "world society" as developed in
the social sciences, recognizing the new levels of both material and normative
integration that have developed as a result of the accelerated globalization process
since the 1970s. This does not exclude critical perspectives; globalization is a
multifaceted and contradictory process, implying both integration and fragmentation,
and calling forth its own counter-forces, as exemplified in the backlash against reform
in some of the democracies created during the third wave.
University of Trondheim

1. Henry Bienen, "Authoritarianism and Democracy in Africa," in Comparative
Political Dynamics: Global Research Perspectives, ed. S. A. Rustow and K. P.
Erickson (New York, 1991), p. 226.
2. General introductions to the problem of democratization in the Third World include
the following: Larry Diamond et al., Democracy in Developing Countries, vol. 2:
Africa (Boulder, Colo., 1988); Axel Hadenius, Democracy and Development
(Cambridge, 1992); L. Diamond, J. Linz, and Seymour Lipset, eds., Democracy in
Developing Countries, 4 vols. (Boulder, Colo., 1988). On democratic reform in Asia
see reports from the Nordic Asian Institute in Copenhagen: Thommy Svensson,
Impossibility of Liberalism and Democracy in Indonesia, 1840-1940, NIAS Report 13
(1994); Stein Tønnesson, Democracy in Vietnam?, NIAS Report 16 (1993). For a
comparative perspective, see L. Gerardo Munck and Carol Skalnik Leff, "Modes of
Transition and Democratization: South America and Eastern Europe in Comparative
Perspective," Comparative Politics 29 (1997): 343-63. On democratic reform in
Africa, see Walter Oyugi, ed., Democratic Theory and Practise in Africa (London,
1988); John A. Wiseman, ed., Democracy and Political Change in Sub-Saharan
Africa, (London, 1995); Claude Ake, Democracy and Development in Africa
(Washington, D.C., 1996); Richard Joseph, "Democratization in Africa after 1989:
Comparative and Theoretical Perspectives," Comparative Politics 29 (1997): 363-83.
See also Africa Today 43 (1996), a special issue on democratic reform.
3. Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth
Century (Norman, Okla., 1991); and Samuel Huntington, "How Countries
Democratize," Political Science Quarterly 106 (1991-92): 579-616.
4. The criteria underlying the two types of democracy go back to Joseph Schumpeter,
Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (New York, 1947); and Robert Dahl,
Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven, Conn., 1971).
5. On the backlash for democracy, see Larry Diamond, "Is the Third Wave Over?"
Journal of Democracy 7 (1996): 20-37; Julius Ihonvbere, "Where Is the Third Wave?
A Critical Evaluation of Africa's Non-transition to Democracy," Africa Today 4
(1996): 343-68; Samuel Huntington, "Democracy for the Long Haul," Journal of
Democracy 7 (1996): 3-14. The Journal of Democracy closely follows the course of
democratic reform.
6. Sidney Tarrow, "Understanding Political Change in Eastern Europe: 'Aiming at a
Moving Target': Social Science and the Recent Rebellions in Eastern Europe," PS:
Political Science and Politics 24 (1991): 12-20; Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never:
The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44
(1991): 7-49; James S. Rosenau, "Signals, Signposts and Symptoms: Interpreting
Change and Anomalies in World Politics," European Journal of International
Relations 1 (1995): 113-23; Barry Buzan, "The Present as a Historic Turning Point,"
Journal of Peace Research 30 (1995): 385-98; Christian Meier, "Die 'Erreignisse' und
der Umbruch des Weltsystems," Merkur 44 (1990): 376-86; Jan Oskar Engene,
"Sviktende kunnskap eller umoral? Karl Poppers kunnskapsteoretiske forklaring på
kommunismens fall," Nordisk Øst-forum 1 (1994): 52-63.
7. Lucian W. Pye, "Political Science and the Crisis of Authoritarianism," American
Political Science 84 (1990): 3-21; Fred Halliday, Rethinking International Relations
(Vancouver, B.C., 1994); Halliday, "International Relations: Is There a New
Agenda?" Millennium 20 (1991): 57-72; John L. Gaddis, "International Relations
Theory and the End of the Cold War," International Security 17 (1992/93): 5-58; John
L. Gaddis, "History, Science and the Study of International Relations," in Explaining
International Relations since 1945, ed. Ngaire Woods (Oxford, 1996); Torbjørn
Knutsen, A History of International Relations Theory (Manchester, 1997). On the lack
of change in political science, see Kjell Goldmann, "Im Westen nichts Neues: Seven
International Relations Journals in 1972 and 1992," European Journal of
International Relations 1 (1995): 245-59.
8. For historiographical surveys of research on Eastern Europe, see Martyn Rady,
"Nineteen eighty-nine and All That," Seer 73 (1995): 111-116; and Philip Longworth,
"Nineteen eighty-nine and After," Slavonic and East European Review 71 (1993):
9. See note 2, above.
10. Standard works on globalization are Martin Albrow, The Global Age: State and
Society beyond Modernity (Cambridge, 1996); Bruce Mazlish and Ralph Buultjens,
Conceptualizing Global History (Oxford, 1993); Yoshikazu Sakamoto, ed., Global
Transformation: Challenges to the State System (Tokyo, 1994); Malcolm Waters,
Globalization (London, 1992). Globalization is regularly discussed in journals like
Millennium, Theory, Culture and Society, and the Journal of World History. On
global processes in the long historical perspective, see William H. McNeill, The
Global Condition: Conquerors, Catastrophes and Community (Princeton, 1997);
Wang Gungwu, ed., Global History and Migrations (Boulder, Colo., 1997); Adam
Watson, The Evolution of International Society (London, 1992).
11. Richard Little, "Neorealism and the English School: A Methodological,
Ontological and Theoretical Reassessment," European Journal of International
Relations 1 (1995): 9-35. See note 4, above, especially Halliday, for useful
discussions of the various schools.
12. Did not the democracy movements in Eastern Europe prove that Truman had been
right in claiming at the beginning of the Cold War that the contest was basically about
freedom? The point is made in John L. Gaddis, "The Cold War, the Long Peace and
the Future," in The End of the Cold War: Its Meanings and Implications, ed. M. J.
Hogan (Cambridge, 1992), pp. 21-39.
13. Jürgen Kocka, "¨Uberraschung und Erklärung: Was die Umbrüche von 1989/90
für die Gesellschaftsgeschichte bedeuten könnten," in Was ist Gesellschaftsgeschichte?
Positionen, Themen, Analysen, ed. Manfred Hettling et al. (Munich, 1991); Moshe
Lewin, The Gorbachev Phenomenon: A Historical Interpretation, expanded ed.
(Berkeley, 1991).
14. The point is made in Jens Arup Seip, "Problemer og metode i norsk
middelalderforskning," Norsk Historisk Tidsskrift 32 (1940): 49-131.
15. Martin Shaw, Global Society and International Relations: Sociological Concepts
and Political Perspectives (Cambridge, 1994); Roland Robertson, "Mapping the
Global Condition: Globalization as the Central Concept," in Global Culture, ed. Mike
Featherstone (London, 1990), pp. 31-57; William E. Connolly, "Democracy and
Territoriality," Millennium 20 (1991): 463-84. An early introduction of the concept of
"world society" is John Burton, World Society (Cambridge, 1972).
16. Economic history introductions to globalization are the following: Robert Reich,
The Work of Nations (New York, 1991); Paul Hirsch and Graham Thompson,
Globalization in Question (Cambridge, 1996); Paul Krugman, Popular
Internationalism (Cambridge, Mass., 1996).
17. Ed A. Hewett, Open for Business: Russia's Return to the Global Economy
(Washington, D.C., 1992); György Péteri, "On the Legacy of State Socialism in
Academia," Minerva 33 (1995): 305-324; also published as chapter 8 in György Péteri,
Academia and State Socialism: Essays on the Political History of Academic Life in
Post-1945 Hungary and East Central Europe (Highland Lakes, NY, 1998), pp.
18. The field of structural adjustment studies has been a growth industry during the
1990s. An introduction to its political aspects is Stephen Haggard and Steven B.
Webb, eds., Voting for Reform: Democracy, Political Liberalization and Economic
Adjustment (New York, 1994). A brief Scandinavian survey with a basic bibliography
on structural adjustment is På vej mod markedet, a special issue of Den ny verden
(Copenhagen) 28 (1995). For a critical perspective, see John Cavanagh, ed., Beyond
Bretton Woods: Alternatives to the Global Economic Order (London, 1994). For
Africa, see Peter Gibbon et al., eds., Authoritarianism, Democracy and Adjustment
(Uppsala, 1992).
19. Lars Rudebeck, ed., When Democracy Makes Sense: Studies in the Democratic
Potential of Third World Popular Risings (Uppsala, 1992); M. Bratton and N. Van de
Valle, "Popular Protest and Political Reform in Africa," Comparative Politics 24
(1992): 419-43.
20. Alison Dundes Renteln, International Human Rights: Universalism versus
Relativism (London, 1990); David Held, Democracy and the Global Order: From the
Modern State to Cosmopolitan Governance (Oxford, 1995); Richard Falck, "The
Infancy of Global Civil Society," in Beyond the Cold War: New Dimensions in
International Relations, ed. Geir Lundestad and Odd Arne Westad (Oslo, 1993), pp.
219-35; E. McCarthy-Arnolds et al., eds., Africa, Human Rights and the Global
System (Westport, Conn., 1994); Claude E. Welsh Jr., Protecting Human Rights in
Africa: Strategies and Roles of Non-governmental Organizations (Philadelphia,
21. As President F. W. de Klerk explained in 1990: "The decline and collapse of
communism in Eastern Europe and Russia put a new complexion on things. The ANC
was formerly an instrument of Russian expansion in Southern Africa; when that threat
fell away, the carpet was pulled from under the ANC; its base of financing,
counselling and moral support had crumbled. It was as if God had taken a hand--a
new turn in world history. We had to seize the opportunity." Quoted in W. de Klerk, F.
W. de Klerk (Johannesburg, 1997), p. 27.
22. E. McCarthy-Arnolds et al., eds., Africa, Human Rights and the Global System.
23. Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century (London, 1994),
p. 458.
24. I. Wallerstein, G. Arrighi, and T. K. Hopkins, "Nineteen eighty-nine, the
Continuation of 1968," Review: A Journal of the Fernand Braudel Centre XV (1992):
25. Seymour Lipset, Student Politics (London, 1967); D. K. Emerson, ed., Students
and Politics in Developing Countries (London, 1968); W. J. Hanna, University
Students and African Politics (London, 1975).
26. Bill Ashcroft, Gareth Griffiths, and Helen Tiffin, The Post-colonial Studies
Reader (London, 1995).
27. For an introduction to the cultural aspects of globalization, see the following:
Mike Featherstone, ed., Global Culture: Nationalism, Globalization and Modernity
(London, 1990); Featherstone, Consumer Culture and Postmodernism (London, 1991);
and Featherstone, Scott Lash, and Roland Robertson, Global Modernities (London,
28. Francis Fukuyama, "The End of History?" National Interest 16 (1989): 3-18.
29. For critical perspectives on globalization, see the following: Peter Gran, Beyond
Eurocentrism: A New View of Modern History (New York, 1996); James Mittelmann,
Globalization: Critical Reflections (London, 1996); Hans-Henrik Holm and Georg
Sørensen, Whose World Order? Uneven Globalization and the End of the Cold War
(Oxford, 1995); William H. Meyer, "Global News Flow: Dependency and
Neoliberalism," Comparative Political Studies 22 (1989): 243-64. See also
Millennium: Journal of International Studies 24:3 (1995), a special issue entitled The
Globalization of Liberalism. The American Marxist journal Monthly Review has a
continual debate on globalization.
30. Immanuel Wallerstein, The Modern World System (London, 1974); and
Wallerstein, "Culture as the Ideological Battleground of the Modern World System,"
pp. 31-57 in Global Culture: Nationalism, Globalization and Modernity, ed. Mike
Featherstone (London, 1990).
31. Immanuel Wallerstein, "The End of What Modernity," Theory and Society 24
(1995): 471-88; and Wallerstein, Arrighi, and Hopkins, "Nineteen eighty-nine, the
Continuation of 1968."
32. Barry Gills and Joel Rocamora, "Low Intensity Democracy," Third World
Quarterly 13 (1992): 501-525; a similar perspective is presented in Stephen Sparkes,
"Democracy as Staged Performance: Reflections on the 1996 Thai Elections,"
NIAS-nytt, Nordic Newsletter of Asian Studies 1 (1997): 13-15. On hegemony in
world history, see Adam Watson, The Evolution of International Society: A
Comparative Historical Analysis (London, 1992).
33. Michael Geyer and Charles Bright, "World History in a Global Age," American
Historical Review 100 (1995): 1034-61; Marshall G. S. Hodgson, Rethinking World
History: Essays on Europe, Islam and World History (Cambridge, 1993); Peter Gran,
Beyond Eurocentrism: A New View on Modern World History (New York, 1966).
34. From an altogether different perspective, Duncan A. Rustow, A World of Nations:
Problems of Political Modernization (Washington, D.C., 1967), formulates a theory
of transitions to democracy that provides for historical contingencies, accidents, and
inadvertent decisions.
35. Huntington, "How Countries Democratize," p. 591.

              Source: Journal of World History 10/02/1999

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