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January Analysts
February 2009 changes of Hera Group consensus
March
This tool give quick access to the changes of
April analyst opinions highlighted in their studies.
May
Full reports cannot be disclosed due to broker
policies but you will find the “Key messages” of all
June new issued broker’s reports
July
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August
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October
November
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December Hera public available studies
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Home » The Group » Investor Relations » Analysts
Change Consensus in January 2009
TP €2.56, “buy”
TP €2.60, “buy” Company Rating • “Enìa’s Chairman stated
• “2008 results expected
Banca Akros Buy that he hopes that Hera will
in line with estimates” Banca IMI Buy reconsider joining the Iride-
Banca Leonardo Buy Enìa merger project”
CAI Cheuvreux Outperform
Cazenove Outperform
Centrobanca Neutral
TP €2.00 (from 2.30€), Citigroup Buy
“outperform” (from “neutral”) Dresdner Kleinwort Buy TP €2.80, “buy”
Equita Buy
• “high proportion of Exane Outperform • “illegal State aids: Hera
regulated activities (63%), Intermonte Outperform should have to pay €15m
expected strong CF and Kepler Reduce more relative to Meta”
limited risk on the current Mediobanca Outperform
BP” Merrill Lynch Buy
Santander Buy
Unicredit Buy
TP €2.00, “buy” (initial
Target Price Consensus as at 31/01/2009 € 2.60 coverage)
TP €1.80 (da 1.90€), • “a rare combination of
“outperform” (from growth and defensiveness”
“neutral”)
•“an unjustified discount to
• “regulatory risks for
peers”
Hera are fairly contained”
•“solid financial structure”
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Change Consensus in February 2009
Company Rating
Banca Akros Buy TP €2.80, “buy”
TP €2.56, “buy” Banca IMI Buy
• “Rumors on possible
Banca Leonardo Buy
• “Hera might take into M&A with Linea Group”
CAI Cheuvreux Outperform
consideration new M&A after
Cazenove Outperform
the shareholding pact meeting”
Centrobanca Neutral
Citigroup Buy
Dresdner Kleinwort Buy
Equita Buy
Exane Outperform
Intermonte Outperform TP €3.50, “buy”
TP €2.93, “buy”
Kepler Reduce
• “New M&A are upcoming?” Mediobanca Outperform
Merrill Lynch Buy
Santander Buy
Unicredit Buy
TP €2.80, “buy”
Target Price Consensus 27/02/2009 € 2.60
TP €2.00, “buy” • “”Expecting double digit
growth of Ebitda and EPS”
• “Hera among Italian best
picks”
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Change Consensus in March 2009
TP €2.56, “buy”
• “Despite the macroeconomic Company Rating
scenario, Hera substantially TP €2.80, “buy”
confirmed the target. Operating in Banca Akros Buy
regulated business, Hera should be Banca IMI Buy
more protected from the crisis”. Banca Leonardo Buy
CAI Cheuvreux Outperform
TP €2.10, “buy”
Centrobanca Undervalued
• “Hera presents a limited
Citigroup Buy
TP €2,00, “outperform” downside risk of the regulated
Dresdner Kleinwort Buy
• “Strategic pillars: upstream businesses. Hera is the only one
Equita Buy Italian local utility without
integration, positive FCF,
Intermonte Outperform
sound financial structure, governance problems”.
Kepler Reduce
generous dividend policy”.
Mediobanca Neutral
Merrill Lynch Buy
Santander Buy
TP €2.15, “buy” Unicredit Buy TP €1.85, “undervalued”
• “Improved visibility on the Ebitda
target thanks to the more • “Higher visibility for earnings until
Target Price Consensus 31/03/2009 € 2.44
conservative assumptions on GC 2011 as a consequence of tariff
and to the new WTE plants”. increases and of the plants
completion. Expected positive FCF
in 2009”.
TP €1.80, “outperform” TP €2.00, “buy”
• “Realistic Ebitda target”. • “A rare combination of growth
and defensiveness”. TP €3.50, “buy”
• “Good results at operating level”.
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Change Consensus in April 2009
TP €2.06 (from 2,56), “buy” Company Rating
TP €2.10, “buy”
• “High Ebitda visibility, balanced
asset portfolio, low impact on P&L Banca Akros Buy • “Safe strategy, with 60% of Ebitda
from the current negative Banca IMI Buy regulated with tariffs set until
macroeconomic scenario”. Banca Leonardo Buy 2011/2012. Good 1Q2009 results
CAI Cheuvreux Outperform expected and positive catalysts
Centrobanca Undervalued ahead”.
Citigroup Buy
TP €2.15 (from 2,60€), “buy” Dresdner Kleinwort Buy
• “Visibility on new BP targets is Equita Buy
quite good; the share is trading at Intermonte Outperform
interesting multiples”. Kepler Reduce TP €1.85, “undervalued” - best
Mediobanca Neutral picks
Merrill Lynch Buy • “Higher earnings visibility for until
Santander Buy 2011 thanks to the tariff increase
Unicredit Buy and the completion of 80% of
TP €2.35 (from €2,80), “buy” plants”.
Target Price Consensus 30/04/2009 € 2.26
• “Solid organic growth, further
opportunities for new bolt-on
acquisitions, the stock remains
mostly defensive, FCF generation
and leverage reduction”. TP €1.85, “buy” (from “reduce”)
TP €2.00, “buy”
• “Low-risk business model, a
• “Hera’s strategy based both on
clear strategic approach and
internal and external growth has
the sound earnings profile
proved to be the most successful”.
driving FCF positive”
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Change Consensus in May 2009
TP €2.06, “buy” TP €2.00, “buy”
Company Rating
• “Q1 2009 results were overall in • “Q1 results came slightly
line with forecasts, confirming the Banca Akros Buy above our expectations; limited
expected growth”. Banca IMI Buy downside risk of the regulated
Banca Leonardo Buy sbu; Hera is the only Italian
CAI Cheuvreux Outperform utility without governance
Centrobanca Undervalued problems.
Equita Buy
TP €1.65, “neutral”
Intermonte Neutral
• “Strong management, increasing Kepler Buy
CF generation, stable business Mediobanca Neutral
mix, safe dividend payments”. Merrill Lynch Buy
Santander Buy
Unicredit Buy
TP €1.85, “undervalued”
Target Price Consensus 29/05/2009 € 2.08
TP €2.35, “buy” • “Q1 results confirm that Hera
remains a sound growth story,
• “Strong Q1 results which we
also thanks to a well diversified
see as indicating the
business mix and a massive
resilience of Hera’s business
capex plan”.
in the current economic
downturn”.
TP €2.33, “buy”
• “Q1 results came definitely in line,
without major differences across
single divisions Ebitda.
• “Low risk free rate & cost of debt”.
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Change Consensus in June 2009
Company Rating
Banca Akros Buy
Banca IMI Buy
Banca Leonardo Buy
CAI Cheuvreux Outperform
TP €2.3 (from €2.0), “buy” Centrobanca Undervalued
best picks Equita Buy
Intermonte Neutral
• “Cautious business plan Kepler Buy
assumptions; lack of governance TP €2.0 “buy”
Mediobanca Neutral
issues; accomplished investment Merrill Lynch Buy • “We remain convinced that
program”. Santander Buy Hera’s strategy, based both on
Unicredit Buy internal and external growth (via
small and medium sized
Target Price Consensus 30/06/2009 € 2.10 acquisitions) has proved to be
the most successful until now”.
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Change Consensus in July 2009
TP €2.3, “buy”
TP €2.06, “buy” • “We reiterate a positive valuation
• “High cash flow visibility from on Hera thanks to its safe
Company Rating strategy, the weight of regulated
regulated business combined with
Ebitda growth potential from WTE Banca Akros Buy activities, the lacking of
business; long-term M&A Banca IMI Buy governance problems and the role
speculative appeal”. Banca Leonardo Buy in the Italian growing waste
CAI Cheuvreux Outperform business”.
Centrobanca Buy
Equita Buy
Intermonte Neutral
TP €2.07, (from 2.15€), “buy”
Kepler Buy TP €2.0, “outperform”
Mediobanca Neutral • “The company has a strong track
Merrill Lynch Buy record for successfully pursuing
Santander Buy and securing small size acquisitions
Unicredit Buy and we still see this as a potential
TP €1.75, (from €1.65), “neutral” source of growth in the future”.
• “Strong management, Target Price Consensus 31/07/2009 € 2.10
increasing cash flow
generation, a fairly stable
business mix, a manageable TP €1.85, “buy “ (from
refinancing calendar and safe “undervalued”)
dividend payments”. TP €2.0, “buy”
• “We valuate positive a M&A
• “Hera’s strategy, based both on
strategy based on acquisitions of
internal and external growth (via small
small and medium size at
and medium sized acquisitions) has
reasonable prices and also in light
proved to be very successful until now”.
its appealing valuation in relative
terms compared to its Italian peers”.
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