Airlines
David Chan
Maggie Han
Franky Yuen
Sean Li
Categories of Airlines
• International
• National
• Regional
• Cargo
Large issues about airlines
• Weather
• Fuel Cost - typically, 14-16% of total cost is
from fuel cost.
• Labor - Estimated to be 40% of the total airline
expenses
Regulatory Government Agency
• The Department of Transportation (DOT)
• The Federal Aviation Administration
(“FAA”)
• President of the United States
• The Transportation Security Administration
• The Department of Justice (“DOJ”)
• The United States Environmental
Protection Agency (“EPA”)
Regulations
International Air Transportation Competition Act
U.S. Transportation Code
Federal Air Regulations
Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)
regulations
Food and Drug Administration (FDA)regulations
Aviation and Transportation Security Act
The Airport Noise and Capacity Act of 1990
Influence of Regulatory Changes
• Enaction of Aviation and Transportation Security
Act
• TSA assumed the aviation security functions and
assumed passenger screening contracts at U.S.
• Cost on reducing the number of waiting lines
Special Regulatory risk for Delta
• Periodic renewal of certain route authority is required
• Success in renewal is not guaranteed
Risk Factors of Airlines
Pressures to airline companies
• Threat of New Entrants
• Power of Suppliers
• Power of Buyers
• Competitive Rivalry
Risk Participating Stock Drops
Strategy Risk
• Strategic risks are defined by business
design choices and how these interact
with various external factors
-Challenge from a new form of
competition,
-Shifts in customer preference
-Industry consolidation
Strategic Risk Mitigation
• Conserve cash during the boom times and
invest in the tough
• Selection of an appropriate business
design itself
• Traditional responses
– Creating a culture focused on the customer
– Developing a rigorous strategic planning process
– Maintaining an independent board of directors
Strategy Risk Mitigation by Southwest
• Selection of the business design
-Attract customers in good times and in
bad
- Use of secondary airports
- Low debt levels reduce the exposure to
interest rate fluctuations.
-Profit sharing and a fun culture reduce the
chance of labor difficulties
Financial Risk
• Financial risks involve the management of
capital and cash, including exogenous
• factors that affect the variability and
predictability of revenue and cash flow
• (e.g., general economic conditions or
foreign exchange rates).
Hedging Financial Risk
• Design and placement of financial
transactions
-Structured finance
-Derivatives
-Insurance
-Contingent financing
-Debt/equity offerings
Operating Income of Fuel Hedging
New Financial Risk Management
• Guarantees for credit card transactions.
Operational Risk
• Operational risks arise from the more
tactical aspects of running the business
day-to-day, such as crew scheduling,
accounting and information systems, and
e-commerce activities.
Operational Risk Mitigation
• Organizational solutions
- Process redesign
- Organization structural changes
- Improved communication
- Contingency planning
- Performance measurement
- Reward systems
- Capital allocation and pricing
Operational Risk Mitigation
• Working with the government to shape
industry regulation
Delta Airline
Business
• “We are a major air carrier that provides
scheduled air transportation for passengers
and cargo throughout the United States and
around the world”
Corporate Information
• Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia
• Subsidiaries: Atlantic Southeast Airlines,
Comair
• Destinations: 497 cities in 88 countries
• SkyTeam Alliance
• Daily flights+partners: 7,697
Stock Price
• NYSE Symbol: DAL
Route Map
Goals
• Cost Reduction
[Bankruptcy or restructure]
Risks
• Fuel Price
• Currency
• Interest Rate
• Others
Fuel Price
• Fuel price structure
• Average fuel price up by 20% from
2000-2003
Fuel Price Risks
• Solution: Hedging
• Problem: No jet fuel market
• Hedge contracts – up to 36 months, hedge
up to 80% of expected fuel requirement on
a 12 month rolling basis
• Dec 31, 2003, hedged 32% of aircraft fuel
requirement for 2004 at an average
76.46¢
Fuel Price Risks Continue
• In February 2004, all of our fuel hedge contracts
are settled prior to their scheduled settlement
dates; received $83 million in cash
• SFAS 133, gains of $82 million will be recorded
in accumulated other comprehensive loss until
the related fuel purchase, which were being
hedged, are consumed and recognized in
expense during 2004
Fuel Price Risks Continue
Fuel Price Risks Continue
Fuel Price Risks Continue
Other comprehensive loss
• Additional pension liability
2) Effective unrealized gain/loss of fuel hedging contracts
3) Effective unrealized gain/loss of market securities
Interest Rate Risks
• Solution: Interest Rate Swap
• (1) $300 million principal amount of
unsecured Series C Medium-Term Notes
due March 15, 2004, which pay interest at
a fixed rate of 6.65% per year and
• (2) $500 million principal amount of
unsecured Notes due December 15, 2005,
which pay interest at a fixed rate of 7.70%
per year.
Interest Rate Continue
• May 9, 2003, settled these interest rate swap
agreements prior to their expiration. As a
result, we received $27 million, including
$7 million previously recognized as
adjustments to interest expense under the
terms of the swap agreements. The fair value
adjustments to the previously underlying
debt related to the interest rate swaps totaled
$20 million.
Exchange Rate Risk
• Solution: may enter into foreign
currency options and forward contracts
with maturities of up to 12 months. We
did not have any foreign currency
hedge contracts at December 31, 2003
or 2002.
Fair value of derivatives
Fair value of derivatives
Stock Options
• All stock options granted had an exercise
price equal to the fair value of the
underlying common stock on the grant
date.
Stock Options
Stock Options
Four Stock Option Plans:
- Broad-based Employee Stock Option Plan
- Delta 2000 Performance Compensation Plan
- Non-Employee Directors’ Stock Option
Plan(1998)
- Non-Employee Directors’ Stock Option
Plan(1995)
Stock Options
Broad-based Employee Stock Option Plan
-Broad-based pilot and non-pilot plans
-Granted eligible employees non-qualified stock
options to purchase a total of 49.4 million
shares of common stock in three
approximately equal installments on
October 30, 1996, 1997 and 1998.
Stock Options
Delta 2000 Performance Compensation Plan
-Authorizes the grant of stock options and a
limited number of other stock awards.
- Restates the prior plan
- No awards will be granted under the prior plan
on or after this date
Stock Options
Non-Employee Directors’ Stock Option Plan(1998)
- Each non-employee director may receive an
annual grant of non-qualified stock option
Stock Options
Non-Employee Directors’ Stock Option Plan(1995)
- A portion of each non-employee director’s
compensation will be paid in shares of common
stock
Stock Options
Stock Options
Stock Option Exchange Program
- Commenced on May 28, 2003
- Eligible employees
- Broad-based Stock Option Plans
- Delta 2000 Performance Compensation Plan.
- Board of Directors(CEO) not eligible
Stock Options
-canceled approximately 32 million
outstanding stock options on June 25,
2003
-issued approximately 12 million
replacement options on December 26,
2003. The exercise price of the
replacement options is $11.60, the closing
price of our common stock on the grant
date.
Stock Options
-canceled approximately 32 million
outstanding stock options on June 25,
2003
-issued approximately 12 million
replacement options on December 26,
2003. The exercise price of the
replacement options is $11.60, the closing
price of our common stock on the grant
date.
Stock Options
Stock Options
Stock Options
-Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Southwest Airline
Company Background
• Southwest Airline is incorporated in Texas in 1971
- only 3 Boeing 737 aircraft
- serving three Texas cities
(Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio)
• In 2003, Number ONE carrier in terms of domestic
boarding in the U.S.
• “ LUV “ --- Stock Exchange Symbol
Southwest Airline
•Southwest operated 388 Boeing 737
aircraft
•Provided service to 59 airports in 58
cities in 30 states throughout the
United States
•The “largest carrier” in the United States
(based on originating domestic passengers boarded and scheduled
domestic departures)
Market Share of Southwest
Southwest Airline Characteristics
• Short-haul
• High-frequency
• Point-to-point
• Low-fare
Competitive Strengths:
• low operating costs
• the lowest costs among the major airlines
• focus principally on point-to-point service,
rather than hub-and-spoke
Major Competitors
• American Airline
• Jet Blue Airway
• Delta Airline
Major competitors comparison:
LUV AMR DAL JBLU Industry
Market Cap: 11.13B 1.40B 625.05M 1.97B 684.11M
Employ-ees: 31,011 92,100 70,600 5,956 5.96K
Rev. Growth (ttm): 10.00% 0.80% 0.00% 26.80% 13.50%
Revenue (ttm): 6.53B 18.65B 14.97B 1.27B 1.46B
Gross Margin (ttm): 29.83% 18.91% 4.61% 34.57% 19.69%
EBITDA (ttm): 986.00M 1.15B -208.00M 189.48M 119.37M
Oper. Margins (ttm): 8.50% -0.77% -9.71% 8.92% 3.65%
Net Income (ttm): 314.00M -760.00M -3.34B 47.47M 12.00M
EPS (ttm): 0.386 -4.731 -26.757 0.429 0.35
PE (ttm): 36.79 N/A N/A 43.92 12.77
PEG (ttm): 1.81 N/A N/A 3.19 1.52
PS (ttm): 1.66 0.07 0.04 1.48 0.38
AMR = AMR Corp
DAL = Delta Air Lines Inc
JBLU = JetBlue Airways Corp
Industry = Airline
Above average industry performance
"Southwest is the only airline that has
made money since 1973 with stock value
up more than 500% since 1990"
General Airline Cost Structure
Southwest Airline Cost Structure
Southwest 5 Years Performance
Southwest Vs. Airline Industry
Industry
Potential Risks
• Political risk
• Economic risk
• Competition risk
• Fuel risk
• Weather risk
• Air Traffic Constraint
Political Risk
• War risk
• Military Actions
• Terrorist attack risk (eg. 911 event)
• Regulation changes
Insurance
Purpose of Insurance:
• protect the Company and its property
• comply both with federal regulations and certain
of the Company’s credit and lease agreements.
General Coverage:
•public and passenger liability, property damage,
cargo and baggage liability, loss or damage to
aircraft, engines, and spare parts, and workers’
compensation.
Insurance
Following the terrorist attacks
• Insurance premiums increase significantly
– Increase operating expenses
• Reduced war-risk coverage for commercial
carriers
Competition Risk
• Fare sales
• Decisions by competitors
• Changes in competitors' flight schedules
• Mergers and acquisitions
• Codesharing programs
Economic Risk
• General economic conditions
• Demand for travel
• Consumer ticket purchasing habit
Fuel Risk
• Jet fuel – 2nd largest expenditure
• Jet fuel Consumption
•2003 15.2% of operating expense
•2002 14.9% of operating expense
•2001 15.6% of operating expense
•Large fluctuation in fuel price
• Hedging fuel prices is required
Average cost of jet fuel, net of hedging
gains, over the past five years
Income Statement
Fuel Hedging
• Risk of increasing jet fuel prices
• Derivative instruments not for trading purposes
• No reliable forward market for jet fuel
• Company must estimate the future prices of jet
fuel
• Observe similar commodities (such as crude oil
and heating oil)
Fuel Hedging
December 31, 2003
Use call options, collar structures, and fixed price swap
agreements hedge the jet fuel
82% of its 2004 total anticipated jet fuel requirements
60% of 2005 total anticipated jet fuel requirements
• First quarter 2004 hedges are effectively heating oil-based
positions in the form of option contracts
• Remaining hedge positions are crude oil-based positions.
Fuel Risk
Fuel Hedging
• consume 1.2 billion gallons of jet fuel in
2005
• A change in jet fuel prices of one cent per
gallon would impact the Company’s “Fuel
and oil expense” by approximately $12
million per year.
Stock-based Employee Compensation
Stock-based compensation plans covers:
• Company's Board of Directors
• Employment contracts with CEOs
• Majority of employee
Employee Stock Plan
• Two classes of employee stock plans:
1) Collective bargaining plans
• Subjective to collective bargaining agreements
• Granted at or above pair value
• Normally have terms ranging from 6 to 12 years
• No executive nor member of the Board of Directors are
eligible to participate in this plan
• Not required to be approved by Shareholders
Stock-based Employee Compensation
2) Other employee plans
• Not subjective to collective bargaining
agreements
• Granted at fair market value
• Have 10-year terms and become fully
exercisable after three, five or ten years
• Need to be approved by shareholders
Stock-based Employee Compensation
Stock-based employee compensation
Financial Risk
• SW capitalize conservatively and grow
capacity steadily and profitably.
• financial leverage
• An "A" credit rating on its senior
unsecured fixed-rate debt with Standard &
Poor’s and Fitch ratings agencies
• A "Baa1" credit rating with Moody's rating
agency.
Credit Risk
• Default of counterparties to the financial derivative
instruments agreements
• Solution :
• Review credit rating statuses of counterparties
• Spread exposure among several counterparties
• Monitor market position of the program and
relative market position with each counterparty.
Result: No default of counterparties
Interest Rate Risk
Floating Rate Debt Obligation
• Floating-rate financing arrangements
• Interest rate swaps
Objective of interest rate swaps
– Reduce the volatility of net interest
income
– Take advantage of market conditions
Interest Rate Swap
Fixed Rate Debt
– Pass-through certificates
– Senior unsecured notes
Hedge of Interest Rate Risk
• Use Short-term investment cover part of floating
interest rate debt
– Certificates of deposit
– Highly rated money markets
– Investment grade commercial paper
– Other highly rated financial instruments.
Influence of Change in Interest Rate
• a hypothetical ten percent change in interest
rate results in:
• --No material effect on fair value of fixed rate
debt
• --Less than $2million change in net earnings and
cash flows