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					An Assessment of Cuyahoga’s
Fair Housing Act: 1980-2000
         Dr. William Bowen
          Mukesh Kumar
           William Olson
    Levin College of Urban Affairs at
       Cleveland State University



                                        UAA 2003
       Fair Housing Activities
• Prohibits discrimination on basic of “race or
  color, national origin, religion, sex, family
  status, and/or handicap
• Realtors, landlords, private homeowners
  prohibited from screening, steering,
  redlining, blockbusting, or otherwise
  impeding free choices of individuals in
  search of residence

                                                  UAA 2003
        Outcome Interpretation
• Do various indicators of segregation suggest that
  there has been change in the degree to which
  different racial groups live separately from one
  another in different parts of the urban environment
• Indicators: evenness (dissimilarity index, exposure
  (isolation index), concentration (density index),
  centralization (distance from CBD)
• Do not consider that under a regime of completely
  free and unconstrained choice, many individuals
  would prefer to live by other individuals in their
  same social category
                                                    UAA 2003
         Process Interpretation
• Are individuals, as a consequence of Fair Housing
  activities, less constrained in the process of
  deliberating alternative residential locations?
• Any two individuals with identical budgets, albeit
  from different social categories, should face an
  identical choice set of alternative feasible
  residences.
• The interest is as much in what does not happen as
  what does happen.

                                                       UAA 2003
 The Residential Choice Process
Present Deliberations    Alternative    Future
  of Home Seeker         Residences    Outcomes

                         |---A1      Yk|A1
                         |---A2      Yj|A2
                         |--- …………       ……
     X ?             |--- …………        ……
                         |--- …………       ……
                         |---An      Yl|Aa




                                                  UAA 2003
 Newcomb’s Problem of Choice
• Story concerning a being who has shown himself
  capable on a million occasions in the past, of
  predicting human choices with perfect accuracy.
• When clearly specified, it leads to a contradiction,
  and so by reductio ad absorbum, the story is
  impossible.
• The distinguishing characteristic of free choice is
  its inherent unpredictability. If one can predict it,
  then it is not free.

                                                          UAA 2003
       Can We Find Evidence of
            Constraints?
•    Problem is one of estimating relations
     between two sets of components of
     residential segregation.
    A. Determined (constrained) component
    B. Free (unconstrained) component
    Changes over time in the ratio of magnitude of
       determined component to free component
       indicates change in level of free choice.

                                                     UAA 2003
             Linear Models
• Total sum of squares = Explained sum of
  squares (deterministic) + Residual sum of
  squares (free)
• Residual variation = f (sample &
  measurement errors, model
  misspecification, and inherently
  unpredictable events)


                                              UAA 2003
 Summary of Outcome Measures
• Data from 1980, 1990, 2000 Census (tract level, Cuyahoga
  County)
   – Collected variables in:
       • Social Area Analysis
       • Factorial Ecology literature
   Table 1.
   Summary of Segregation Indices
                                  Year
   Index                                  1980     1990     2000
   Gini (evenness)                      0.9638   0.9499   0.9127
   Entropy (evenness)                   0.7391   0.7079   0.6154
   Interaction (exposure)               0.1699   0.1752   0.2097
   Isolation (exposure)                 0.8213   0.8117   0.7557
   Delta (concentration)                0.8384   0.7959   0.7353
   RCE (centralization)                 0.3762   0.4147   0.4388
   Dissimilarity (evenness)             0.8677   0.8396   0.7825



                                                              UAA 2003
                                Percentage Blac k
                                            0 - 20


            1980                            20 - 40

                                            40 - 60

                                            60 - 80

                                            80 - 100
    N



W       E



    S
                   Resid ential C hoice a nd Fa ir Ho using
                   UAA Co nference
                                Percentage Blac k
                                            0 - 20


            1990                            20 - 40

                                            40 - 60

                                            60 - 80

                                            80 - 100
    N



W       E



    S
                   Resid ential C hoice a nd Fa ir Ho using
                   UAA Co nference
                                Percentage Blac k
                                            0 - 20


            2000                            20 - 40

                                            40 - 60

                                            60 - 80

                                            80 - 100
    N



W       E



    S
                   Resid ential C hoice a nd Fa ir Ho using
                   UAA Co nference
 Summary of Process Measures
Table 3.
Ratio of Explained Sum of Squares to Residual Sum of Squares

Models                    Equation     1980      1990     2000
All Variables                    10    6.36      5.79     4.86
All Factors                      11    2.81      2.75     2.36
Social Area Analysis             12    2.44      2.38     2.61
Economic Variables               13    2.22      2.01     1.83
Family Status Variables          14     0.9      0.95     1.08
Housing Variables                15    0.15      0.25     0.34
                                                               UAA 2003
Table 2
Summary of Regressions (Extent of Free Choice)
                               Adjusted R-squared
 Model     Regressions      1980      1990     2000
  (10)     All Variables    0.862     0.856    0.821
  (11)      All Factors     0.753     0.697    0.681
  (12) Social Area Analysis 0.731     0.698    0.699
  (13)   Economic Factors    0.72     0.679    0.621
  (14) Demographic Factors 0.385      0.436     0.45
  (15)    Housing Factors   0.152     0.221    0.283
                                   Table 3
                      One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
                             Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z       Asymp.   Sig. (2-tailed)
Model Regressions             1980     1990     2000      1980     1990       2000
[10]  All Variables          0.865    0.845   0.994      0.443    0.473      0.277
[11]  All Factors            1.368    0.915   0.905      0.047    0.372      0.386
[12]  Social Area Analysis   1.148    0.903   0.959      0.143    0.388      0.317
[13]  Economic Factors       1.112    1.278   1.891      0.168    0.076      0.002
[14]  Demographic Factors    2.063    2.491   1.629      0.000    0.000      0.010
[15]  Housing Factors        3.475    2.813   2.118      0.000    0.000      0.000
                               Table 4
                  One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
                                       1980         1990               2000
Housing
Model 16       Adj. R-squared*            0.855         0.848         0.732
Model 17       Adj. R-squared**           0.028         0.016         0.051
               K-S Significance           0.678         0.620         0.974
Family Status
Model 18        Adj. R-squared*           0.784          0.743         0.750
Model 19        Adj. R-squared**          0.180          0.174         0.093
                K-S Significance          0.634          0.862         0.870
Economic
Model 20        Adj. R-squared*           0.744          0.741         0.705
Model 21        Adj. R-squared**          0.274          0.281         0.306
                K-S Significance          0.410          0.462         0.596
* Dep var. is % African American. Indep. Var.s include all but the category
** Dep var. is Residual from above model. Ind var.s include the category
     Histogram                                                                                   Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardiz
     Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Residual                                                 Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Resi
50                                                                                        1.00


40
                                                                                           .75

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                                                           Expected Cum Prob
                                                                                           .50
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10                                      Std. Dev = .98                                     .25
                                        Mean = 0.00

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     Regression Standardized Residual                    Housing                                 Observed Cum Prob


                                                         1980,1990
     Histogram                                                                                     Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standard
     Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Residual                                                   Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Res
40                                                                                         1.00



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     Regression Standardized Residual                                                              Observed Cum Prob
     Histogram                                                                                            Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardize
     Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Residual                                                          Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Resid
50                                                                                                 1.00


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     Regression Standardized Residual                    Demography                                       Observed Cum Prob


                                                         1980,2000
     Histogram                                                                                               Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardiz
     Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Residual                                                             Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Resi
50                                                                                                   1.00


40
                                                                                                      .75

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     Regression Standardized Residual                                                                        Observed Cum Prob
     Histogram                                                                             Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardize
     Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Residual                                           Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Resid
50                                                                                  1.00


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                                                                Expected Cum Prob
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     Regression Standardized Residual                    Economic                          Observed Cum Prob


                                                         1990,2000
     Histogram                                                                             Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardize
     Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Residual                                           Dependent Variable: Unstandardized Residu
50                                                                                  1.00


40
                                                                                     .75

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                                                           Expected Cum Prob




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                                        Mean = 0.00

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     Regression Standardized Residual                                                      Observed Cum Prob
              Conclusions
• Based on Outcome Measures, Fair Housing
  activities have had some (slight) effect
• Based on Process Measures, the results are
  mixed
  A) African-Americans have less economic free
   choice
  B) The social/family and housing structure
   constraints are less severe…

                                                 UAA 2003

				
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