Sustainability of biofuels
UIC meeting, 5 July, 2007
Peder Jensen Project Manager, Transport and Environment
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EU renewable energy and CO2 policy
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Greenhouse gas emission concerns
Transport emissions versus ’total emission allowance’
120
Kyoto
100 80
”Minimum”
”Accelerated”
2.0%
60
40 20
1.0% 0.5%
0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Conservative reductions
Minimum reductions
Accelerated reductions
Accelerated reductions
www.eea.europa.eu
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Security of energy supply
Now... Heat and power Difficult to store ... and in the future
Heat, power and biofuels Easy to store Grid connected sectors are easy to supply with electricity whereas transport requires a liquid fuel for the time being !
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Bio-energy – A hot topic
IPCC support for biofuels angers environmentalists
The fourth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has angered environmentalists despite a clearer call for drastic cuts in carbon emissions. A group of environmentalist organisations, including the Global Forest Coalition, Biofuelwatch, Friends of the Earth, Corporate Europe Observatory and the Gaia Foundation dubbed the IPCC's call for more biofuels as a "climate disaster in the making". Biofuelwatch's Almuth Ernsting sees growing use of biofuels as perversely increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by deforestation in the tropics. "If this is happening at the moment, with only one percent of global transport fuel coming from biofuels, then what will happen if we go to 5-10% as the IPCC suggests," said Ernsting. "Biofuels cause steep rises in grain and vegetable oil prices, threatening the food security of poor people and spurring agricultural expansion into forests and grasslands, on which we depend for a stable climate." The IPCC places both first and second-generation biofuels amongst its "key mitigation technologies and practices. These include carbon capture and storage (CCS), advanced nuclear power, renewables and, for transport, more fuel efficient, cleaner and hybrid vehicles, cycling, walking and public transport. The IPCC noted that "biofuels might play an important role in addressing GHG emissions in the transport sector, depending on their production pathway". The IPCC foresees biofuels growing to represent 3% of total transport energy demand in the baseline in 2030. "This could increase to about 5-10%, depending on future oil and carbon prices, improvements in vehicle efficiency and the success of technologies to utilise cellulose biomass," notes the IPCC. By Dafydd ab Iago
Source: EIS, 4.5.2007
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Biomass potential
“Increasing the use of renewable energies offers significant opportunities for Europe to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and secure its energy supply. However, the substantial rise in the use of biomass from agriculture, forestry and waste for producing energy might put additional pressure on farmland and forest biodiversity as well as on soil and water resources. It may also counteract other current and potential future environmental policies and objectives, such as waste minimisation or environmentally-oriented farming.”
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Environmental constraints
• At least 30 % of the agricultural land in most Member States is dedicated to 'environmentally oriented farming' in 2030 (defined as HNV farmland or organic farming). • 3 % of the currently intensively cultivated agricultural land is set aside for establishing ecological compensation areas in intensive farming areas. • Extensively cultivated agricultural areas (e.g. grassland or olive groves or 'dehesas') are maintained. • Bioenergy crops with low environmental pressures are used.
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Bio-energy potential
Source: EEA, 2006
Ca. 12%
Source: Primes (2003)
14%
17%
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CO2 balance
• Biomass can be converted to heat and power. • Part of the energy content can be converted to transport biofuels with some loss of energy. The rest can be converted to heat and power.
5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0
20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25 20 27 20 29
Scenario for DK from upcoming study
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CHP Transport
CO2 balance for different biofuels
1. gen biodiesel, rapeseed 2. gen biodiesel, wood Synthetic diesel, natural gas Fossil diesel
2. gen ethanol, wood 1. gen ethanol, wheat Fossil gasoline
Assessments depends on basis for comparison
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What have we learned
• • • EU has a significant biomass potential that is not yet fully utilised Waste represent the main source today Changes in the agricultural sector can increase the agricultural potential significantly Based on todays technology biomass is best used in heat and power production ... but this conclusion may change if GTL fuels become common place Therefore policies must be developed for the whole energy sector and not just for subsectors (transport)
•
• •
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