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Document Sample
WMO First DPM Coordination Meeting
Global results of the WMO Country-Level
DPM Survey: Preliminary analysis of current
capacities, gaps and needs of WMO Members
Item 3.0
By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme
December 4, 2006
1
Issues Discussed in This Presentation
• Preliminary Analysis of WMO Country-level
Survey - Global
• Intro to Preliminary Analysis of WMO
Country-level Survey - Regional
• Status of Regional-Level DPM Survey
• Seven primary Gap Areas
2
Mapping of Capacities, Gaps and Needs
Country-level DPM Survey (Doc. 2)
• Issues considered
– Key hazards
– National DRM governance and NMHS organizational structure
– NMHS technical capacities
– Partnerships and collaborations
– Major gaps and needs
• Survey designed too enable objective analysis for
any regions, sub regions, country groupings, etc
• Launched in March 2006
• 139 Responses received
• An electronic database has been developed with
statistical analysis interface
3
Preliminary results of the WMO
country-level DPM survey
Global
4
Responses to the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey
44/48
92 %
18/22
82 % 25/34
74 %
10/12 24/52 14/19
83 % 54 % 74 %
139 out of 187 Members (74 %) responded
Least developed Developing
countries: countries:
25/50 85/137
50 % 54 % 5
Ranking of the hazards
from the country-level survey
HIGH
Global
IM PACTS Hazard (out of 139)
Strong winds 119
Flash flood 105
Thunderstorm or lightning 103
Drought 101
River flooding 101
Forest or wild land fire 81
Earthquakes 75
Heat wave 72
Landslide or mudslide 70
Hailstorm 69
Hazards to aviation 67
Dense fog 62
Coastal flooding 56
Tropical cyclone 56
Heavy snow 53
Cold wave 52
Smoke, Dust or Haze 50
Storm surge 48
Waterborne hazards 47
Tornado 45
Marine hazards 43
Avalanche 36
Freezing rain 36
Airborne substances 35
Tsunami 35
LOW
Volcanic events 29
IM PACTS
Desert locust swarm 27
Sandstorm 27
6
Understanding of Benefits of NMHSs
at Ministerial Level
• 108/134 indicate low visibility of NMHS
within government a major hurdle to NMHS
contribution to DRM
• 124/132 indicate lack of ministerial
understanding of benefits of hydro-met
services to DRM a limiting factor
• 72/131 indicate national legislation and
policies do not reflect role of NMHSs in
DRM
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Strong winds
HIGH
IMPACT
Flash flood
Thunderstorm or lightning
Drought
River flooding
Forest or wild land fire
Earthquakes
Heat wave
Data Archived
Landslide or mudslide
Hailstorm
Hazards to aviation
Dense fog
Coastal flooding
and maintaining standard databases
Tropical cyclone
Heavy snow
Cold wave
Smoke, Dust or Haze
• Very few countries maintain impact databases
Storm surge
Waterborne hazards
Tornado
Marine hazards
Avalanche
Freezing rain
Airborne substances
Tsunami
Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)
Volcanic events
Desert locust swarm
• Need for strengthening NMHS capacities for hazard data archiving
Sandstorm
Number of Countries Keeping Data Archives
LOW
8
IMPACT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
HIGH
IMPACT
Strong winds
Flash flood
Thunderstorm or lightning
Drought
River flooding
NMS
Forest or wild land fire
Earthquakes
Heat wave
Landslide or mudslide
Hailstorm
NHS
Hazards to aviation
Dense fog
Coastal flooding
Tropical cyclone
Heavy snow
Cold wave
Smoke, Dust or Haze
Storm surge
Waterborne hazards
Tornado
Combined Service
Marine hazards
Avalanche
Freezing rain
Airborne substances
Tsunami
of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities
Other
Warnings could be significantly enhanced through strengthening
Volcanic events
Desert locust swarm
Sandstorm
Number of Countries Issuing Warnings
LOW
9
IMPACT
Contributions of NMHSs to key sectors
relevant to Disaster Risk Management
140
120
100
80 55 %
50 %
60 45%
39 %
40
20
0
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an
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ty
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DRM Would open new Users for NMHSs products and Services
10
Limiting factors of NMHSs in their
contribution to disaster risk management
Central and
North
America and
Most critical factors limiting contributions of NMHSs to disaster risk management LEAST South the South-West
(number of positive responses / number of responses) DEVELOPING DEVELOPED America - RA Caribbean - Pacific - Europe -
GLOBAL COUNTRIES COUNTRIES Africa - RA I Asia - RA II III RA IV RA V RA VI
(out of 139 (out of 85 (out of 25 (out of 28 (out of 25 (out of 10 (out of 18 (out of 14 (out of 44
responses) responses) responses) responses) responses) responses) responses) responses) responses)
Visibility and recognition of NMHSs within the
Government as one of the main contributing agencies to 108/134 67/83 19/24 24/26 16/24 8/10 15/18 10/14 35/42
disaster risk reduction
Understanding at the ministerial level of the socio-
economic benefits of hydrometeorological products and 124/132 80/83 23/24 26/26 21/24 10/10 18/18 12/14 37/40
services
National disaster risk reduction organizational structures 49/132 27/82 10/24 4/26 9/24 2/10 11/18 6/13 17/41
Lack of understanding by governmental authorities of the
82/130 53/80 16/23 18/24 11/24 6/9 13/18 9/14 25/41
value that NMHSs provides
Legislation or policies regarding the role of the National
72/131 51/81 15/23 16/24 12/24 6/10 12/18 6/14 20/41
Meteorological and Hydrological Service in DRR
Observing networks for hydro-meteorological conditions 91/129 64/80 19/22 21/24 15/24 10/10 15/16 10/14 20/41
Resources for the maintenance of the observing networks 95/131 66/82 21/23 23/25 14/24 9/10 17/18 8/14 24/40
Value-added services in support of hydrometeorological
114/127 74/79 20/21 24/25 17/23 9/9 17/17 13/13 34/40
risk assessment
Resources and infrastructure to deliver products and
105/114 71/75 21/21 26/27 17/19 7/8 15/15 11/12 29/33
services
Operational forecasting and warning services 119/128 78/79 22/23 26/26 21/23 9/9 16/16 12/13 35/41
Readiness level system to ensure appropriate response
by authorities to the levels of information issued by 106/126 73/81 20/23 21/24 20/24 9/10 16/17 11/13 29/38
NMHSs
Collaboration and coordination with the WMO Regional
100/130 71/81 22/24 26/27 20/24 8/9 11/16 9/14 26/40
Specialized Meteorological Centres
Linkages with other organizations involved in disaster risk
68/133 52/82 17/24 23/27 9/23 4/10 11/17 7/14 14/42
reduction
Coordination with neighboring or adjacent countries 115/132 77/82 22/23 26/27 18/22 10/10 16/18 11/14 34/41
Forecaster training 74/131 57/80 18/24 19/25 12/24 8/10 12/17 8/14 15/41
Joint training between NMHS staff and disaster risk
91/132 66/83 22/24 26/26 13/24 8/10 13/17 8/14 23/41
managers
Joint training between NMHS staff and media 90/135 66/84 20/24 26/27 11/24 7/10 15/18 8/14 23/42
Joint training between NMHS staff and emergency
89/133 65/83 20/24 25/26 15/24 8/10 12/17 8/14 21/42
authorities and managers
Educational modules that NMHSs could target at Media,
117/134 77/84 22/24 27/27 18/24 9/10 18/18 12/14 33/41
Public, disaster risk reduction authorities
Public understanding of the effects of hazards 111/133 73/83 21/23 25/26 18/24 9/10 15/18 12/14 32/41
public understanding of warnings 109/133 71/83 22/23 25/26 18/24 8/10 15/18 12/14 31/41
11
Areas in which WMO's global and regional efforts could
enhance NMHSs' contribution to disaster risk management
Developing
Global Countries LDC
Statement 139 /187 85 / 137 25 / 50
Technology transfer, capacity building, technical guidelines and technical trainings
(e.g. forecasting tools and methodologies, hazard mapping, and other inputs to risk 1 1 1
assessment tools, etc.)
Provision of technical advice and specifications (e.g. to enhance observing
networks, operational infrastructures, relevant products and services for disaster 2 2 2
risk reduction applications)
Education, training and public outreach programs in disaster risk reduction (e.g.
targeted at National Meteorological and Hydrological Service and their stakeholders) 3 4 7
Advocacy for enhanced visibility of National Meteorological and Hydrological
Service’ in the area of disaster risk reduction 4 5 4
Cost benefit analysis of hydro-meteorological services in disaster risk reduction
5 6 5
Strengthening strategic partnerships with stakeholders (e.g. disaster risk managers,
media, etc.) 6 8 8
Assist members in the development of the national disaster risk reduction plans
7 3 3
Strengthening strategic partnerships with other technical organizations and agencies
(e.g. meteorology, hydrology, ocean services, etc.) 8 9 9
Resource mobilization
9 7 6
Establishment of regional emergency protocols for the National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in support of each other in case of disruption of services due 10 10 10
to the impact of a disaster
12
Seven Gap Areas (Clarification Doc. 2)
GA 1 Mainstreaming NMHS and their technical capacities in the
national disaster risk management and development planning and
legislation
GA 2 Strengthening capacities for hazard monitoring, maintenance of
standardized databases, and methodologies for hazard analysis in
support of risk management applications
GA 3 Strengthening capacities for end-to-end operational hazard early
detection and warnings supported by strong governance,
organizational and operational capacities
GA 4 Strengthening capacities for provision of meteorological services
in support of pre- and post-disaster emergency response and
relief operations
GA 5 Facilitation of partnerships among NMHSs and other key
national agencies for a more coordinated approach to DRM
GA 6 Strengthening educational and training programmes of NMHSs
and their key stakeholders in DRM such as authorities,
emergency response operators and media
GA 7 Development of public outreach programmes and materials
13
Preliminary results of the WMO
country-level DPM survey
Regional
(Results will be covered in the afternoon session)
14
Patterns of casualties by natural
hazards in WMO Regions
15
Patterns of economic losses by natural
hazards in WMO Regions
16
Casualties by natural hazards
in WMO Regions
People killed by natural hazards, 1980-2005 (thousands of casualties)
1000
893
900
Epidemic,
famine
800
Tsunami
702
700
Volcano
600 Earthquake
500 Windstorm
400
Wild Fires
299
Slides
300 255
Flood
200
110 Extreme
84 Temperature
100
Drought
0
RA I RA II RA III RA IV RA V RA VI
17
Economic losses by natural hazards
in WMO Regions
Economic losses by natural hazards, 1980-2005 (billion USD)
200
188
180
Epidemic,
famine
160
Tsunami
140
Volcano
120 Earthquake
100 Windstorm
80
Wild Fires
58 Slides
60 52
42
Flood
40
20 Extreme
20 Temperature
Drought
0.9
0
RA I RA II RA III RA IV RA V RA VI
18
Results will be reviewed during the
afternoon session Day 1
Regional Analysis Confirm Same Seven
Gap Areas
19
WMO Regional-Level
DPM Survey
Launched in October 2006
DPM Working Groups of Regional Associations
20
Regional-level DPM survey is being implemented by RA
Working Group on DPM to address issues related to:
i) Providing information on initiatives through various economic groupings and
agencies to develop regional strategic plans for implementing the Hyogo
Framework for Action (HFA)
ii) Strengthening regional capacity’s in disaster risk management
iii) Identification and prioritization of hazards that pose the greatest risk resulting in
a need for cross boundary / sub-regional / regional collaboration and
cooperation
iv) Understanding the current capacities and activities in the region in support of
disaster risk management, and how these regional capacities and activities
support these focus areas, including the projects underway through the working
groups of the Regional Association
v) Identification of gaps and needs and cross-boundary challenges for enhancing
capacities in support of disaster risk management
vi) Regional priorities with respect to addressing these gaps and needs
vii) Identification of existing and potential future partnerships and concrete project
areas of the regional association with other agencies involved in disaster risk
reduction.
viii) Prioritization of activities / projects in support of Members capacities in disaster
risk management in your Regional Association.
21
Thank you
22
Supporting slides
23
Seven Gap Areas (Clarification Doc. 2)
GA 1 Mainstreaming NMHS and their technical capacities in the
national disaster risk management and development planning and
legislation
GA 2 Strengthening capacities for hazard monitoring, maintenance of
standardized databases, and methodologies for hazard analysis in
support of risk management applications
GA 3 Strengthening capacities for end-to-end operational hazard early
detection and warnings supported by strong governance,
organizational and operational capacities
GA 4 Strengthening capacities for provision of meteorological services
in support of pre- and post-disaster emergency response and
relief operations
GA 5 Facilitation of partnerships among NMHSs and other key
national agencies for a more coordinated approach to DRM
GA 6 Strengthening educational and training programmes of NMHSs
and their key stakeholders in DRM such as authorities,
emergency response operators and media
GA 7 Development of public outreach programmes and materials
24
Patterns of disasters by natural
hazards in WMO Regions
25
Disasters by natural hazards
in WMO Regions
Disaster by natural hazards, 1980-2005 (events)
3000
2557
Epidemic,
2500 famine
Tsunami
2000
Volcano
Earthquake
1516
1500 Windstorm
1240
Wild Fires
1002
1000 Slides
785 769
Flood
500
Extreme
Temperature
Drought
0
RA I RA II RA III RA IV RA V RA VI
26
Disasters (events) by natural hazards
in WMO Regions
Extreme
Temperature Flood
Drought 35%
11%
4%
Extreme
Slides
Temperature Extreme
0.7% 1.3%
Epidemic, famine, Temperature
insects
5%
Global Flood
27%
Wild Fires
1.1%
4%
Earthquake Slides Drought
4% 4% Flood
Volcano 11%
Drought 32%
0.5%
18%
Epidemic, famine,
Windstorm Windstorm insects
22%
Wild Fires RA I 9%
Earthquake
9% Earthquake
10%
RA II
8%
3% Tsunami
0.7% Slides
Volcano 7%
Epidemic, famine, 0.6% Windstorm
Volcano
insects 30%
1%
39%
Tsunami
0.3% Wild Fires
2%
Extreme
Temperature Drought Extreme
3% 6% Temperature
2.1% Flood
32%
Epidemic, famine,
insects Drought
Epidemic, famine, 5%
6%
insects
Flood
Tsunami 6% Slides
43%
0.4% 6%
Earthquake Wild Fires
Volcano
3%
14% RA III Tsunami
0.3%
Volcano
4%
RA IV 2.0%
Earthquake
9%
Windstorm Windstorm
8% Slides 34%
14%
Wild Fires
3%
Slides
Extreme 6%
Temperature
0.4% Flood
23%
Wild Fires Extreme
Drought Flood
3% Temperature
3% Drought 35%
11%
4%
Epidemic, famine,
insects
6% Volcano
Tsunami
7% RA V Epidemic, famine,
insects
5%
RA VI
1.5% Slides
Earthquake Earthquake
11% Windstorm 4%
Volcano 11%
40% 0.5%
Windstorm
22%
Wild Fires
8%
27
Casualties by natural hazards
Drought
28%
Flood
9%
in WMO Regions
Extreme
Temperature
3.4%
Slides
0.9%
Wild Fires
Windstorm 0.06%
13%
Global Wild Fires
0.05%
Windstorm
25%
Drought
Epidemic, famine,
Earthquake 80%
insects Slides
14%
19% 1%
Flood Flood Earthquake
2% 12% 23%
Tsunami
11%
RA I Windstorm
Extreme
RA II
Volcano Temperature
2.5% 0.5%
1.8%
Earthquake Epidemic, famine,
Epidemic, famine, Tsunami
1.0% insects
insects 7%
17% Drought 30%
Volcano 0.23%
0.28%
Tsunami
0.04%
Windstorm
0.5% Tsunami
0.003%
Wild Fires
0.02% Earthquake Volcano
13% 20%
Epidemic, famine,
Slides
6% RA III insects
1.8%
Flood
Drought
17% Earthquake
Extreme
62%
Windstorm
RA IV 0.04%
26%
Temperature Extreme
0.4% Temperature
Flood
1.0%
36%
Drought
0.01% Wild Fires
Volcano 0.02%
9%
Epidemic, famine,
insects
6%
Slides
Tsunami 2.0%
0.04%
Epidemic, famine,
Wild Fires insects
0.13% Earthquake 0.5%
11% Volcano
Slides
1.3%
Windstorm
13%
8%
RA VI
Flood
3% Earthquake
33% Extreme
Extreme Temperature
Temperature
0.01%
RA V Windstorm
59%
2%
Drought Tsunami
57% Wild Fires
3%
0.4%
Epidemic, famine, Slides
insects 1.8%
4%
Flood
3%
28
Economic losses by natural hazards
Wild Fires
2.45%
Slides
0.4% in WMO Regions Windstorm
38%
Tsunami
Flood Extreme
28% Global 0.15%
Temperature
0.7% Flood
Epidemic, famine, 41%
Extreme insects Drought
Temperature 0.49% 3%
Drought
1.8% Slides
15%
Earthquake Earthquake 0.3%
24% 54% Extreme Tsunami
Drought Temperature 0.7% RA II Wild Fires
5%
RA I Flood
0.2% 0.4%
Tsunami
16% Windstorm
1% Earthquake
19%
35%
Wild Fires
Windstorm 0.05%
15%
Extreme Slides
Temperature 0.002%
3%
Wild Fires
Epidemic, famine, 0.31%
insects Drought
0.2% 13% Flood
Extreme 15%
Temperature
Tsunami 0.16%
0% Flood RA IV Windstorm
Volcano
RA III 55%
Epidemic, famine,
Drought
4%
60%
2% insects
Earthquake 0.2%
22%
Tsunami
Windstorm Earthquake
0.00%
1% 19%
Volcano
Wild Fires 2.2%
1%
Slides
3%
Slides
0.2% Flood Flood
Extreme 7% 36%
Temperature Slides
0.3% Wild Fires 0.6%
32% Extreme
Temperature
Drought 5%
Epidemic, famine, 19% Wild Fires
insects
0.2%
RA V Drought
RA VI 1.9%
9%
Windstorm
Tsunami 21%
8% Windstorm Earthquake
25% 26%
Volcano
1.7%
Earthquake 29
7%
Ranking of the hazards from the country-
level survey in developing countries
HIGH
IM PACTS
Developing countries
Hazard (out of 85)
Drought 70
Strong winds 70
Thunderstorm or lightning 68
Flash flood 67
River flooding 59
Forest or wild land fire 52
Earthquakes 48
Landslide or mudslide 44
Tropical cyclone 44
Hazards to aviation 42
Coastal flooding 39
Hailstorm 38
Heat wave 37
Smoke, Dust or Haze 36
Dense fog 35
Storm surge 28
Tsunami 28
Tornado 27
Desert locust swarm 24
Waterborne hazards 24
Cold wave 23
Sandstorm 22
Volcanic events 22
Marine hazards 21
LOW Avalanche 15
IM PACTS Airborne substances 13
Heavy snow 13
Freezing rain 7
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Drought
HIGH
IMPACT
Strong winds
Thunderstorm or lightning
Flash flood
River flooding
Forest or wild land fire
Data Archived
Earthquakes
Landslide or mudslide
Tropical cyclone
Hazards to aviation
Coastal flooding
Hailstorm
Heat wave
Smoke, Dust or Haze
Dense fog
Storm surge
Tsunami
Tornado
Services' capacities for hazard data archiving
• Very few countries maintain impact databases Desert locust swarm
Waterborne hazards
Cold wave
Sandstorm
Volcanic events
Marine hazards
Avalanche
Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)
Airborne substances
• Need for strengthening National Meteorological and Hydrological
Heavy snow
Freezing rain
LOW
31
Number of developing countries keeping data archives
IMPACT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
HIGH
IMPACT
Drought
Strong winds
NMS
Thunderstorm or lightning
Flash flood
River flooding
Forest or wild land fire
Earthquakes
NHS
Landslide or mudslide
Tropical cyclone
Hazards to aviation
Coastal flooding
Hailstorm
Heat wave
Smoke, Dust or Haze
Dense fog
Storm surge
Combined Service
Tsunami
Tornado
Desert locust swarm
Waterborne hazards
Cold wave
Sandstorm
Other
Volcanic events
Marine hazards
Avalanche
of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities
Warnings could be significantly enhanced through strengthening
Airborne substances
Heavy snow
Freezing rain
LOW
Number of developing countries issuing warnings
32
IMPACT
Ranking of the hazards from the country-
level survey in LDC
HIGH LDC
IM PACTS
Hazard (out of 25)
Drought 20
Strong winds 20
Thunderstorm or lightning 20
River flooding 18
Flash flood 16
Earthquakes 13
Forest or wild land fire 13
Heat wave 12
Tropical cyclone 12
Hazards to aviation 11
Landslide or mudslide 10
Coastal flooding 9
Desert locust swarm 9
Hailstorm 9
Smoke, Dust or Haze 9
Tsunami 8
Dense fog 7
Waterborne hazards 7
Storm surge 6
Tornado 6
Sandstorm 5
Volcanic events 5
Marine hazards 4
Cold wave 3
Airborne substances 2
LOW Avalanche 2
IM PACTS Freezing rain
Heavy snow
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
Drought
HIGH
IMPACT
Strong winds
Thunderstorm or lightning
River flooding
Flash flood
Earthquakes
Data Archived
Forest or wild land fire
Heat wave
Tropical cyclone
Hazards to aviation
Landslide or mudslide
Coastal flooding
Desert locust swarm
Hailstorm
Smoke, Dust or Haze
Tsunami
Dense fog
Waterborne hazards
Services' capacities for hazard data archiving
• Very few countries maintain impact databases Storm surge
Tornado
Sandstorm
Volcanic events
Marine hazards
Cold wave
Airborne substances
Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)
Number of LDC keeping data archives
Avalanche
• Need for strengthening National Meteorological and Hydrological
Freezing rain
Heavy snow
LOW
34
IMPACT
0
5
10
15
20
25
HIGH
IMPACT
Drought
Strong winds
Thunderstorm or lightning
River flooding
Flash flood
NMS
Earthquakes
Forest or wild land fire
Heat wave
Tropical cyclone
Hazards to aviation
NHS
Landslide or mudslide
Coastal flooding
Desert locust swarm
Hailstorm
Smoke, Dust or Haze
Tsunami
Dense fog
Waterborne hazards
Storm surge
Combined Service
Tornado
Sandstorm
Volcanic events
Marine hazards
Cold wave
Number of LDC issuing warnings
Airborne substances
Other
of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities
Warnings could be significantly enhanced through strengthening
Avalanche
Freezing rain
Heavy snow
LOW
35
IMPACT
