NEGOTIATIONS FOR EPAs
- WHICH WAY NOW?
Dr Francis Mangeni
Regional Trade Policy Advisor
Commission of the African Union
mangenif@africa-union.org
Outline
Preliminary remark
Assessing the negotiations
Concessions made so far
Provisional EPAs
Transitional arrangements
Recommendations
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PRELIMINARY REMARK
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PRELIMINARY REMARK
- role of AU, attitude of EC
4 negotiating groups in Africa – implications
for regional integration, need for coordination
Commission of AU has mandate to
coordinate EPA negotiations, and services
the Summits and Ministerial meetings
Summit and Ministerial declarations on EPAs
are Common African Positions (copies)
How democratic is the European Commission
Can we ensure that the EC fully reflects the
statements of the member states, parliaments, etc
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ASSESSING THE NEGOTIATIONS
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REVIEW OF EPA NEGOTIATIONS
- not promising; contemplate extensn
Negotiations are behind schedule – EC delays,
capacity constraints
Many outstanding issues, with wide divergence of
positions
Regional integration, development a) b) , market
access, trade-related areas – not adequately
addressed
Measures for competitiveness are so far inadequate
ACP recommendation: sufficient time and resources
needed; AU: no disruption of trade, extension
Impact of statements on extension – urgency and
realism; REVIEW SHOULD BE FOLLOWED UP
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DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION
- is now for EPAs?
“Assistance could be provided against clear
commitments on rules” EC response to SADC
Framework Proposal
“Resources will match the level of ambition of ACP
countries” EC at JMTC 1 March 2007
EDF, for implementing EPAs; broader programmes
for devp and RI could be sidelined
Trade policy should be part of the broader devp
framework, not the other way round
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EC ASSESSMENT
- promising; basis for optimism?
Mandelson: there has been significant
progress, the negotiations are behind
schedule, there is a lot to do, let us move on
with it. Pleasantly surprised with reports?
“there is no EPA that I would sign that is not
development-friendly. Such EPA would be
disqualified”. WE MUST MEET THE
DEADLINE
Michel: there is enough money, trust the EC
No more impact assessment studies
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ACP Ministers
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On EC's tactics in the talks: repetition of "rigid
red lines and inflexible positions that do not
reflect any genuine willingness to think
creatively and arrive at a mutually acceptable
solution that addresses the unique needs and
circumstances (of the Pacific region)." Hans-
Joachim Keil, Samoan Trade Minister, ACP
spokesperson
CSO meeting in Brussels, 12 October 2006
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RESPONSE OF ACP GROUPS
- cautious; don’t rush
No politician can sacrifice his people; on the alter of
deadlines – ACP spokespersons: 1, 13 March
All outstanding issues should be addressed before
concluding EPAs
Have political will to conclude negotiations
Uncertain about the feasibility; EC has not clarified
its optimism
Concerned about disruption of trade, no transitional
measures (ratification)
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COMPATIBILITY REQUIREMENT
- guesswork; finalise WTO negns
The requirement is to address the waiver – which
covers goods (GATT), not necessarily services/ EU
is a major trading partner
Article 24 rules not finalised, not known – ACP
proposal not addressed
New developments – SVEs, obligations to LDCs,
GSP case, international impetus to assist Africa
(MDGs, UN conference on LDCs, Monterrey,
Commission on Africa, Gleanegles G8 summit, etc)
– do not require reciprocity, int’l goodwill to assist
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CONCESSIONS SO FAR
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EC CONCESSIONS
- no new obligations in EPAs
Development cooperation – already part of
EDF, no additional resources, no EPA facility,
no separate financial protocol, no binding
commitments in EPAs
Aid for Trade – for all developing countries,
part of WTO negotiations and package
Market access – DFQF for LDCs is now
WTO obligation to be implemented, taking
into account non-LDCs at similar
development levels
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EC DEMANDS
- hostile, contravene norms
Regional integration – SSL/CET, formation of
customs unions; agreement to first
strengthen RI is inconsistent with the urgency
of liberalisation under EPAs
Development – non-discrimination rules, right
of entry, etc, in investment; competition,
public procurement, IPR; governance,
Market access – LDCs should reciprocate;
unprecedented, mercantilist, contrary to WTO
concessions and rules
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ACP DEMANDS
- with or without EPAs
Market access – full DFQF, real asymmetry, ROO,
safeguards, standards, etc (2% of world trade)
Development cooperation – implement provs on
competitiveness (0.7% of GDP)
Investment – consolidate regional markets,
infrastructure (public investment), capacity building,
harmonise business law, imrpove business
environment, ACP Investment Guarantee Agency,
EIB credit facilities for SMEs, CDE, Technical
Centre for Agriculture and Rural Cooperation
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ACP CONCESSIONS
- pushed, driven
EASILY DROP THEIR DEMANDS – need support
from EU member states, parliaments, industry, civil
society and public opinion (eg WTO)
Commenced EPA negotiations – deal in CPA
Did not insist on alternatives in 2004, but the EC
attitude has remained “unwilling or unprepared”
Unprecedented autonomous liberalisation – low
tariffs (inputs), removal of restrictions, investor
friendly economies
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MUTUAL GAINS
- EU stands to gain also
Vibrant regional markets in ACP countries
ACP/ Africa group is a partner in int’l relations
(106 countries)
EU int’l standing in development cooperation,
models for achieving MDGs
Cooperation with other int’l players
Peace, migration, disease, skills
Long and short term gains; magnanimity
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Concessions in the negotiations
- build upon gains for ACP
EPAs should not be strict FTAs/ alternatives?
Critical/ careful approach to liberalisation can
be helpful – recent literature on liberalisation
and globalisation (dislike for academics,
CSOs – false prophets, nonsensical things,
oil-rich countries closed to neighbours)
EPAs should consolidate international gains
for ACP countries (locking in)
Autonomous liberalisation should be
recognised
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PROVISIONAL EPAs
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NATURE OF PROVISIONAL EPA
- simple EPA
Acceptable to some groups and EC? NOT to
Cariforum – want an ambitious EPA by Sept/
July 07, not EPA late or EPA light
Scope not determined: ESA – market access
and development; SADC – exclude
investment, competition, gvt procurement
Conclude EPA, with an obligation to continue
negotiations to finalise all outstanding issues
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CASE FOR PROVISIONAL EPA
- skip the hard work
Realism – in light of the delays, deal with
manageable areas
Assists meet the WTO compatibility
requirement
Avoids controversial areas
Not adequately investigated
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CASE AGAINST
- difficult to work out
NOT MANAGEABLE – wide divergences
remain in key areas including, meaning of
development, development cooperation,
regional integration, and market access
Outstanding areas could be left unfinalised
for unduly long – like implementation issues
in WTO negotiations
Selected areas for the EPA might well be
imposed by the EC, excl key ACP priorities
NOT YET CAREFULLY STUDIED
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TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENTS
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CONCLUSION BY DECEMBER
- RATIFICATION DELAYED
GENERALLY REQUIRED, for instruments to enter
force and to be implemented – different regimes
have different rules
Examples – CPA took two years, WTO took just
under a year
For EC – temporary implementation pending
ratification?
For ACP – cabinet or parliament (involved?)
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD MAY BE REQUIRED
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NOT CONCLUDED BY DECEMBER
Waiver – recommended by Parliaments and
CSOs; not option for EC; USA precedents;
ACP secretariat to prepare cost analysis; how
would a vote go?
GSP, GSP+, EBA; enhanced GSP –
simulation indicating benefits; alarming
statistics from EC on duty increases;
contractualisation not worked out
Continue CPA regime, notify WTO – ACP
MTC proposal
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CARIFORUM EPA CONCLUDED
IS THE FEAR ABOUT BANANA WARS?
Other products – (main ACP exports)
Could not FTAs covering these products be
challenged? Less likelihood?
How come USA/ Canadian initiatives have
not been challenged?
IMPORTANCE OF HARMONISED EPAs in
Africa
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RECOMMENDATIONS
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MEASURES TO CONCLUDE EPAs
BY DECEMBER 2007
Development should be addressed – (meaning)
EPA process should support regional integration
Asymmetry/ variable geometry should be included
Content/ text of EPAs should be agreed
EC should respond quickly to ACP proposals
EC should also actively initiate proposals
RPTFs should work better and be part of EPA process
Political oversight of the negotiations; should include
regular reviews, actions and decisions.
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MEANING OF DEVELOPMENT
- AU Nairobi Decl on EPAs, ACP
RI to consolidate regional markets, create AEC
Full market access, without NTBs
Address infrastructure and supply side constraints –
to enhance capacity to produce, export, meet
standards, mobilise resources; competitiveness
Through adeq financial and technical cooperation,
incl technology partnerships and skills transfer
Provide for policy space – SDT: asymmetry and
flexibility, varying obligations
Strengthening institutional capacities in public and
private sectors
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CHALLENGES
Elaborating politically, socially acceptable
EPAs, in an inclusive manner
Inflexibility of EC negotiators and structures
Short time frame left to finalise issues
Rationalisation of RI in Africa
Coordination of EPA negotiations among the
groups – common positions, difference pace
Refinement of negotiating positions
Drafting of EPA text
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POST-DECEMBER RULES
To ensure that trade is not disrupted
To assist stability and predictability
To meet CPA obligations: explore
alternatives, ensure no country is worse off,
preserve acqui
Respond to AU declarations
SERIOUS WORK URGENTLY REQUIRED
WTO frameworks, CPA frameworks, etc
Write out current regimes into an agreement
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