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					Investment Strategy Group

2009 Outlook

January 2009




This material has been prepared by the Investment Strategy Group (“ISG”), which is part of the Investment Management Division of Goldman
Sachs and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department. This information is provided to discuss general market
activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions. This material is for informational purposes only, is
not a solicitation and no action is being solicited based upon it. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, restrictions, tax
and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Any models referred to herein are largely based on assumptions and there can be no
assurance that the performance shown herein can or will be achieved. Any customization of these models should be discussed with your Private
Wealth Advisor and may differ significantly from the ISG models shown herein.

This material is delivered solely as reference material with respect to Goldman Sachs Alternative Investment opportunities (“Alternative
Investments”). It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any of the Alternative Investments mentioned herein; any such
offering will occur only in accordance with the terms and conditions set forth in the offering memorandum pertaining to that specific alternative
investment product. Alternative Investments are subject to substantial investment restrictions and will be illiquid; investors are strongly urged to
review carefully the relevant offering memorandum, including the risk considerations described therein, and other documents pertaining to the
Alternative Investments and to discuss any prospective investment therein with their legal and tax advisers prior to investing.
I. Economic Outlook
                             US Economic Scenarios: End-2009



                                                                    Good Case (30%)                 Central Case (60%)                  Bad Case (10%)

                  Real GDP Growth – Q409/Q408                            >(0.75%)                      (0.75)-(1.25)%                       <(1.25%)

                      Monetary Policy – End 09                         0.25 – 0.75%                       0 – 0.25%                         0 – 0.25%


                    10Y Treasury Yield –End 09                            > 2.75%                       2.25 – 2.75%                         < 2.25%


                 Inflation (Core CPI) – Q409/Q408                      0.75 – 1.25%                     0.25 – 0.75%                         <0.25%

               Inflation (Headline CPI) – Q409/Q408                    0.75 – 1.25%                     0.25 – 0.75%                         <0.25%



      • We expect that the US economy will contract through the end of 2008 and 2009. Our central case includes 4-5
      quarters of negative consumption and residential investment growth, and an even longer contraction in non-
      residential investment. We also expect that net exports will slowly become less of a contributor to growth.
      • Headline news will remain unpleasant with reports of unemployment levels reaching and possibly exceeding 8%
      and of bankruptcies reaching levels last seen in the early 1980s and early 1990s.
      • In addition to the 50 bps cut on October 29th, the Fed eased again in December, bringing the Fed Funds rate close
      to zero. As this rate cannot fall below zero, we expect the Fed to continue supporting the economy and the financial
      sector through aggressive quantitative easing and various liquidity measures.




This material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group of the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research Department.                                                                                                                                               2
                              U.S. Economic Growth Outlook
                              Contributions to GDP Growth



                           Component                        Share of GDP               2008 (Q1 08 /            2008 (Q2 08 /           ISG Central Case: 12-Mo.
                                                                                          Q1 07)                   Q2 07)                Forward (Q4 09 / Q4 08)


                Consumption                                        70%                       1.0%                     0.9%                            -0.1%


                Residential Investment                              5%                      -0.9%                     -0.9%                           -0.2%

                Non-Residential Investment                         12%                       0.7%                     0.5%                            -1.3%


                Change in Inventories                                --                      0.0%                     -0.4%                           0.0%

                Government                                         18%                       0.5%                     0.5%                            0.7%

                Net Trade                                          -5%                       1.4%                     1.7%                            -0.1%

                Total                                             100%                       2.5%                     2.1%                        -0.75/-1.25%




This material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group of the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research Department.                                                                                                                                               3
                                     Sizing the Length and Depth of the US Downturn


       1. US Real GDP Growth (% YoY) – ISG Central Case Scenario                                                2. US Real GDP – Cumulative Peak to Trough Contractions During
                                                                                                                                     Previous Recessions
4%
                                                                                                                                (% Change from Peak to Trough)
3%                         2.8%
      2.5%                                                                                                    0.0%
                                                                       % YoY
                    2.1%
2%                                                                     % QoQ - Annualized

             0.9%                 0.7%                                                                        -0.5%
1%                                                                                                     0.7%


0%
                                                                                                              -1.0%
                                     -0.5%   -0.5%
-1%                                                                                         -0.7%
                                                                            -1.0%                   -1.1%
                                                        -1.6%                                                                                          -1.3%
-2%
                                                                                                              -1.5%
                                                                       -2.5%           -2.5%
-3%
                                                            -3.4%
-4%                                                                                                           -2.0%

-5%
                                                -5.0%
                                                                                                                                        -2.3%
                                                                                                              -2.5%
-6%
      Q1 08          Q2 08        Q3 08       Q4 08      Q1 09          Q2 09           Q3 09        Q4 09                                                              -2.6%
                                                                                                                          -2.7%
                                                                                                              -3.0%
                                                                    ISG Central Case
                                                                                                                         1973-75       1981-82        1990-91          2008-09

                                                                                                                                                                  ISG Central Case




      • US GDP stands at $14.3 trillion.                                                                              • In our view, this recession will be worse than the
                                                                                                                      one in the early 1990s, and more along the lines
      • We expect the US economy to contract over the next                                                            of what we witnessed in 1973-75 and 1981-82.
      4-5 quarters with a couple of quarters experiencing a                                                           From high to low, we anticipate a cumulative
      decline of over 2.5% on a year over year basis and                                                              decline in GDP of 2.6%.
      between 3-5% on a quarter over quarter annualized
      basis.


 Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream
 This material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group of the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global
                                                                                                                                                                                 4
 Investment Research Department.
                           ISG Global Outlook Scenarios
                           12-Month Forward GDP and Inflation



                                      Latest GDP   2009 GDP       Latest Headline   2009 CPI Inflation
                          Country
                                       (Q3 ’08)    Q409/Q408         Inflation         Q409/Q408

                  US                     0.8%      -1.25/-0.75%        1.1%             0.25-0.75%


                  Eurozone               0.6%        -0.5/0%           3.2%             0.25-0.75%


                  UK                     0.2%        -0.5/0%           4.1%            -0.75/-0.25%


                  Japan                 -0.5%       -1.0/-0.5%         1.7%              0.0-0.5%


                  EM Asia                8.7%       4.5-6.5%           6.8%             0.75-2.75%


                  EM Latin America       5.4%         0-2%             7.6%              6.5-8.5%


                  Russia                 6.2%         -1/1%           13.7%             9.5-12.5%




Source: Investment Strategy Group

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