Source Month Total
1991 Jan 1991Jan 3029
1991 Feb 1991Feb 2838
1991 Mar 1991Mar 2384
1991 Apr 1991Apr 2197
1991 May 1991May 2170
1991 Jun 1991Jun 2697
1991 Jul 1991Jul 3048
1991 Aug 1991Aug 2997
1991 Sep 1991Sep 2816
1991 Oct 1991Oct 2234
1991 Nov 1991Nov 2365
1991 Dec 1991Dec 2644
1992 Jan 1992Jan 2951
1992 Feb 1992Feb 2834
1992 Mar 1992Mar 2380
1992 Apr 1992Apr 2282
1992 May 1992May 2090
1992 Jun 1992Jun 2363
1992 Jul 1992Jul 2861
1992 Aug 1992Aug 2853
1992 Sep 1992Sep 2652
1992 Oct 1992Oct 2257
1992 Nov 1992Nov 2337
1992 Dec 1992Dec 2824
1993 Jan 1993Jan 3025
1993 Feb 1993Feb 2979
1993 Mar 1993Mar 2679
1993 Apr 1993Apr 2323
1993 May 1993May 2061
1993 Jun 1993Jun 2553
1993 Jul 1993Jul 3260
1993 Aug 1993Aug 3297
1993 Sep 1993Sep 2964
1993 Oct 1993Oct 2315
1993 Nov 1993Nov 2424
1993 Dec 1993Dec 2829
1994 Jan 1994Jan 3348
1994 Feb 1994Feb 3202
1994 Mar 1994Mar 2578
1994 Apr 1994Apr 2317
1994 May 1994May 2167
1994 Jun 1994Jun 2803
1994 Jul 1994Jul 3342
1994 Aug 1994Aug 3121
1994 Sep 1994Sep 2845
1994 Oct 1994Oct 2313
1994 Nov 1994Nov 2370
1994 Dec 1994Dec 2770
1995 Jan 1995Jan 3115
1995 Feb 1995Feb 3097
1995 Mar 1995Mar 2564
1995 Apr 1995Apr 2286
1995 May 1995May 2261
1995 Jun 1995Jun 2807
1995 Jul 1995Jul 3356
1995 Aug 1995Aug 3707
1995 Sep 1995Sep 3130
1995 Oct 1995Oct 2410
1995 Nov 1995Nov 2564
1995 Dec 1995Dec 2981
1996 Jan 1996Jan 3504
1996 Feb 1996Feb 3314
1996 Mar 1996Mar 2808
1996 Apr 1996Apr 2487
1996 May 1996May 2404
1996 Jun 1996Jun 3032
1996 Jul 1996Jul 3423
1996 Aug 1996Aug 3405
1996 Sep 1996Sep 3053
1996 Oct 1996Oct 2432
1996 Nov 1996Nov 2608
1996 Dec 1996Dec 3024
1997 Jan 1997Jan 3424
1997 Feb 1997Feb 3223
1997 Mar 1997Mar 2626
1997 Apr 1997Apr 2425
1997 May 1997May 2283
1997 Jun 1997Jun 2786
1997 Jul 1997Jul 3527
1997 Aug 1997Aug 3451
1997 Sep 1997Sep 3160
1997 Oct 1997Oct 2714
1997 Nov 1997Nov 2666
1997 Dec 1997Dec 3089
1998 Jan 1998Jan 3308
1998 Feb 1998Feb 3091
1998 Mar 1998Mar 2774
1998 Apr 1998Apr 2473
1998 May 1998May 2501
1998 Jun 1998Jun 3281
1998 Jul 1998Jul 3918
1998 Aug 1998Aug 3880
1998 Sep 1998Sep 3555
1998 Oct 1998Oct 2801
1998 Nov 1998Nov 2567
1998 Dec 1998Dec 2989
1999 Jan 1999Jan 3588
1999 Feb 1999Feb 3097
1999 Mar 1999Mar 2885
1999 Apr 1999Apr 2576
1999 May 1999May 2489
1999 Jun 1999Jun 3197
1999 Jul 1999Jul 3972
1999 Aug 1999Aug 3999
1999 Sep 1999Sep 3468
1999 Oct 1999Oct 2665
1999 Nov 1999Nov 2610
1999 Dec 1999Dec 3070
2000 Jan 2000Jan 3532
2000 Feb 2000Feb 3395
2000 Mar 2000Mar 2730
2000 Apr 2000Apr 2541
2000 May 2000May 2689
2000 Jun 2000Jun 3466
2000 Jul 2000Jul 3854
2000 Aug 2000Aug 3993
2000 Sep 2000Sep 3618
2000 Oct 2000Oct 2801
2000 Nov 2000Nov 2817
2000 Dec 2000Dec 3650
2001 Jan 2001Jan 4099
2001 Feb 2001Feb 3567
2001 Mar 2001Mar 2994
2001 Apr 2001Apr 2748
2001 May 2001May 2637
2001 Jun 2001Jun 3314
2001 Jul 2001Jul 3893
2001 Aug 2001Aug 4167
2001 Sep 2001Sep 3532
2001 Oct 2001Oct 2756
2001 Nov 2001Nov 2693
2001 Dec 2001Dec 3102
2002 Jan 2002Jan 3771
2002 Feb 2002Feb 3450
2002 Mar 2002Mar 3075
2002 Apr 2002Apr 2847
2002 May 2002May 2817
2002 Jun 2002Jun 3572
2002 Jul 2002Jul 4313
2002 Aug 2002Aug 4333
2002 Sep 2002Sep 3861
2002 Oct 2002Oct 3049
2002 Nov 2002Nov 2961
2002 Dec 2002Dec 3525
2003 Jan 2003Jan 4009
2003 Feb 2003Feb 3962
2003 Mar 2003Mar 3212
2003 Apr 2003Apr 2782
2003 May 2003May 2832
2003 Jun 2003Jun 3376
2003 Jul 2003Jul 4215
2003 Aug 2003Aug 4338
2003 Sep 2003Sep 3795
2003 Oct 2003Oct 2896
2003 Nov 2003Nov 2889
2003 Dec 2003Dec 3648
2004 Jan 2004Jan 4101
2004 Feb 2004Feb 3878
2004 Mar 2004Mar 3192
2004 Apr 2004Apr 2846
2004 May 2004May 2923
2004 Jun 2004Jun 3745
2004 Jul 2004Jul 4171
2004 Aug 2004Aug 4078
2004 Sep 2004Sep 3745
2004 Oct 2004Oct 3015
2004 Nov 2004Nov 2988
2004 Dec 2004Dec 3676
2005 Jan 2005Jan 4042
2005 Feb 2005Feb 3810
2005 Mar 2005Mar 3357
2005 Apr 2005Apr 2892
2005 May 2005May 2819
2005 Jun 2005Jun 3888
2005 Jul 2005Jul 4661
2005 Aug 2005Aug 4739
2005 Sep 2005Sep 4217
2005 Oct 2005Oct 3312
2005 Nov 2005Nov 3056
2005 Dec 2005Dec 3877
2006 Jan 2006Jan 3884
2006 Feb 2006Feb 3733
2006 Mar 2006Mar 3386
2006 Apr 2006Apr 2979
2006 May 2006May 3032
2006 Jun 2006Jun 3961
2006 Jul 2006Jul 4753
2006 Aug 2006Aug 4841
2006 Sep 2006Sep 3869
2006 Oct 2006Oct 3105
2006 Nov 2006Nov 3161
2006 Dec 2006Dec 3706
2007 Jan 2007Jan 4041
2007 Feb 2007Feb 4338
2007 Mar 2007Mar 3410
2007 Apr 2007Apr 3009
2007 May 2007May 3109
2007 Jun 2007Jun 3914
2007 Jul 2007Jul 4485
2007 Aug 2007Aug 4842
2007 Sep 2007Sep 4317
2007 Oct 2007Oct 3347
2007 Nov 2007Nov 3197
2007 Dec 2007Dec 3787
2008 Jan 2008Jan 4286
2008 Feb 2008Feb 4086
2008 Mar 2008Mar 3452
2008 Apr 2008Apr 3066
2008 May 2008May 2968
2008 Jun 2008Jun 4036
2008 Jul 2008Jul 4619
2008 Aug 2008Aug 4474
2008 Sep 2008Sep 3919
2008 Oct 2008Oct 3098
2008 Nov 2008Nov 3186
2008 Dec 2008Dec 4025
2009 Jan 2009Jan 4380
2009 Feb 2009Feb 4118
2009 Mar 2009Mar 3431
2009 Apr 2009Apr 3043
2009 May 2009May 3033
2009 Jun 2009Jun 3804
2009 Jul 2009Jul 4434
2009 Aug 2009Aug 4460
2009 Sep 2009Sep 3840
2009 Oct 2009Oct 3173
2009 Nov 2009Nov 3086
2009 Dec 2009Dec 4048
Forecasting Analysis Mean Abs Err Root Mean Sq Err Mean Abs Per% Err BIAS
Without seasonal indexes #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Seasonal Moving Average #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Seasonal Exponential Simple #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6.34
Seasonal Exponential Holt's #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? -0.94
Seasonal Exponential Winter's #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? -0.93
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
1.141 1.083 0.916 0.820 0.803 1.016 1.204
Seasonal variation of electricity consumption
1.300
1.200
Seasonal Index
1.100
1.000
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1.215 1.077 0.853 0.854 1.018
Dec
StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis: Time Series Graph
Performed By: Kishore Shenoi
Date: Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Updating: Live
Time Series of Total / Retail Electricity Sales
6000 y = 6.1272x + 2532.2
R² = 0.4034
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217
Observation #
StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis: Forecast
Performed By: Kishore Shenoi
Date: Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Updating: Live/Unlinked
Forecasting Constant
Span 3
Moving Averages
Mean Abs Err #NAME?
Root Mean Sq Err #NAME?
Mean Abs Per% Err #NAME?
Forecast and Original Observations
6000.00
y=0
5000.00 R² = #N/A
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Sep-1992
Sep-1997
Sep-2002
Sep-2007
Jan-1991
Jul-1993
Jan-1996
Jul-1998
Jan-2001
Jul-2003
Jan-2006
Jul-2008
May-1994
May-1999
May-2004
May-2009
Nov-1991
Mar-1995
Nov-1996
Mar-2000
Nov-2001
Mar-2005
Nov-2006
Original Observations
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
0.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Forecast Errors
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Forecasting Data Total Forecast Error
Jan-1991 3029.00
Feb-1991 2838.00
Mar-1991 2384.00
Apr-1991 2197.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1991 2170.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1991 2697.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1991 3048.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1991 2997.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1991 2816.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1991 2234.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1991 2365.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1991 2644.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1992 2951.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1992 2834.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1992 2380.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1992 2282.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1992 2090.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1992 2363.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1992 2861.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1992 2853.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1992 2652.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1992 2257.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1992 2337.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1992 2824.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1993 3025.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1993 2979.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1993 2679.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1993 2323.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1993 2061.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1993 2553.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1993 3260.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1993 3297.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1993 2964.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1993 2315.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1993 2424.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1993 2829.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1994 3348.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1994 3202.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1994 2578.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1994 2317.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1994 2167.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1994 2803.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1994 3342.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1994 3121.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1994 2845.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1994 2313.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1994 2370.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1994 2770.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1995 3115.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1995 3097.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1995 2564.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1995 2286.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1995 2261.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1995 2807.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1995 3356.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1995 3707.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1995 3130.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1995 2410.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1995 2564.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1995 2981.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1996 3504.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1996 3314.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1996 2808.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1996 2487.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1996 2404.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1996 3032.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1996 3423.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1996 3405.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1996 3053.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1996 2432.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1996 2608.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1996 3024.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1997 3424.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1997 3223.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1997 2626.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1997 2425.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1997 2283.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1997 2786.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1997 3527.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1997 3451.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1997 3160.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1997 2714.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1997 2666.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1997 3089.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1998 3308.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1998 3091.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1998 2774.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1998 2473.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1998 2501.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1998 3281.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1998 3918.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1998 3880.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1998 3555.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1998 2801.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1998 2567.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1998 2989.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1999 3588.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1999 3097.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1999 2885.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1999 2576.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1999 2489.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1999 3197.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1999 3972.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1999 3999.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1999 3468.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1999 2665.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1999 2610.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1999 3070.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2000 3532.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2000 3395.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2000 2730.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2000 2541.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2000 2689.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2000 3466.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2000 3854.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2000 3993.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2000 3618.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2000 2801.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2000 2817.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2000 3650.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2001 4099.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2001 3567.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2001 2994.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2001 2748.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2001 2637.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2001 3314.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2001 3893.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2001 4167.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2001 3532.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2001 2756.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2001 2693.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2001 3102.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2002 3771.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2002 3450.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2002 3075.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2002 2847.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2002 2817.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2002 3572.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2002 4313.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2002 4333.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2002 3861.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2002 3049.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2002 2961.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2002 3525.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2003 4009.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2003 3962.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2003 3212.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2003 2782.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2003 2832.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2003 3376.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2003 4215.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2003 4338.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2003 3795.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2003 2896.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2003 2889.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2003 3648.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2004 4101.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2004 3878.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2004 3192.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2004 2846.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2004 2923.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2004 3745.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2004 4171.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2004 4078.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2004 3745.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2004 3015.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2004 2988.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2004 3676.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2005 4042.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2005 3810.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2005 3357.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2005 2892.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2005 2819.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2005 3888.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2005 4661.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2005 4739.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2005 4217.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2005 3312.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2005 3056.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2005 3877.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2006 3884.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2006 3733.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2006 3386.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2006 2979.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2006 3032.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2006 3961.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2006 4753.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2006 4841.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2006 3869.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2006 3105.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2006 3161.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2006 3706.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2007 4041.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2007 4338.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2007 3410.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2007 3009.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2007 3109.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2007 3914.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2007 4485.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2007 4842.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2007 4317.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2007 3347.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2007 3197.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2007 3787.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2008 4286.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2008 4086.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2008 3452.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2008 3066.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2008 2968.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2008 4036.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2008 4619.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2008 4474.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2008 3919.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2008 3098.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2008 3186.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2008 4025.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2009 4380.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2009 4118.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2009 3431.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2009 3043.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2009 3033.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2009 3804.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2009 4434.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2009 4460.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2009 3840.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2009 3173.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2009 3086.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2009 4048.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2010 #NAME?
y=0
R² = #N/A
Total
Forecast
Linear (Forecast)
StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis: Forecast
Performed By: Kishore Shenoi
Date: Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Updating: Live/Unlinked
Forecasting Constant
Span 3
Deseason
Moving Averages Estimate
Mean Abs Err #NAME? #NAME?
Root Mean Sq Err #NAME? #NAME?
Mean Abs Per% Err #NAME? #NAME?
Seasonal Mvg Avg Forecast and Original Observations
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Sep-1992
Sep-1997
Sep-2002
Sep-2007
Jul-1993
Jul-1998
Jul-2003
Jul-2008
Jan-1991
Jan-1996
Jan-2001
Jan-2006
May-1994
May-1999
May-2004
May-2009
Nov-1991
Nov-1996
Nov-2001
Nov-2006
Mar-1995
Mar-2000
Mar-2005
Original Observations
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
0.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Forecast Errors
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Season Deseason Deseason Deseason
Forecasting Data Total Index Total Forecast Errors
Jan-1991 3029.00 1.14 2654.25
Feb-1991 2838.00 1.08 2620.71
Mar-1991 2384.00 0.92 2602.28
Apr-1991 2197.00 0.82 2679.00 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1991 2170.00 0.80 2703.85 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1991 2697.00 1.02 2654.70 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1991 3048.00 1.20 2532.03 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1991 2997.00 1.21 2467.48 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1991 2816.00 1.08 2613.74 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1991 2234.00 0.85 2617.46 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1991 2365.00 0.85 2769.65 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1991 2644.00 1.02 2597.15 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1992 2951.00 1.14 2585.90 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1992 2834.00 1.08 2617.01 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1992 2380.00 0.92 2597.91 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1992 2282.00 0.82 2782.65 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1992 2090.00 0.80 2604.17 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1992 2363.00 1.02 2325.94 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1992 2861.00 1.20 2376.68 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1992 2853.00 1.21 2348.92 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1992 2652.00 1.08 2461.52 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1992 2257.00 0.85 2644.41 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1992 2337.00 0.85 2736.86 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1992 2824.00 1.02 2773.96 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1993 3025.00 1.14 2650.74 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1993 2979.00 1.08 2750.91 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1993 2679.00 0.92 2924.28 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1993 2323.00 0.82 2832.64 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1993 2061.00 0.80 2568.03 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1993 2553.00 1.02 2512.96 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1993 3260.00 1.20 2708.14 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1993 3297.00 1.21 2714.47 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1993 2964.00 1.08 2751.11 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1993 2315.00 0.85 2712.36 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1993 2424.00 0.85 2838.74 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1993 2829.00 1.02 2778.88 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1994 3348.00 1.14 2933.78 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1994 3202.00 1.08 2956.84 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1994 2578.00 0.92 2814.04 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1994 2317.00 0.82 2825.32 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1994 2167.00 0.80 2700.11 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1994 2803.00 1.02 2759.04 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1994 3342.00 1.20 2776.26 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1994 3121.00 1.21 2569.57 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1994 2845.00 1.08 2640.66 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1994 2313.00 0.85 2710.02 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1994 2370.00 0.85 2775.50 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1994 2770.00 1.02 2720.92 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1995 3115.00 1.14 2729.61 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1995 3097.00 1.08 2859.88 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1995 2564.00 0.92 2798.76 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1995 2286.00 0.82 2787.52 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1995 2261.00 0.80 2817.23 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1995 2807.00 1.02 2762.97 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1995 3356.00 1.20 2787.89 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1995 3707.00 1.21 3052.03 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1995 3130.00 1.08 2905.19 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1995 2410.00 0.85 2823.67 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1995 2564.00 0.85 3002.70 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1995 2981.00 1.02 2928.18 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1996 3504.00 1.14 3070.48 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1996 3314.00 1.08 3060.26 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1996 2808.00 0.92 3065.10 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1996 2487.00 0.82 3032.62 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1996 2404.00 0.80 2995.41 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1996 3032.00 1.02 2984.44 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1996 3423.00 1.20 2843.55 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1996 3405.00 1.21 2803.39 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1996 3053.00 1.08 2833.72 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1996 2432.00 0.85 2849.45 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1996 2608.00 0.85 3054.23 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1996 3024.00 1.02 2970.42 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1997 3424.00 1.14 3000.38 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1997 3223.00 1.08 2976.23 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1997 2626.00 0.92 2866.43 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1997 2425.00 0.82 2957.02 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1997 2283.00 0.80 2844.65 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1997 2786.00 1.02 2742.30 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1997 3527.00 1.20 2929.94 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1997 3451.00 1.21 2841.26 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1997 3160.00 1.08 2933.03 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1997 2714.00 0.85 3179.85 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1997 2666.00 0.85 3122.15 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1997 3089.00 1.02 3034.27 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1998 3308.00 1.14 2898.73 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1998 3091.00 1.08 2854.34 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1998 2774.00 0.92 3027.98 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1998 2473.00 0.82 3015.55 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1998 2501.00 0.80 3116.28 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1998 3281.00 1.02 3229.54 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1998 3918.00 1.20 3254.75 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1998 3880.00 1.21 3194.46 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1998 3555.00 1.08 3299.66 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1998 2801.00 0.85 3281.78 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1998 2567.00 0.85 3006.21 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1998 2989.00 1.02 2936.04 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-1999 3588.00 1.14 3144.09 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-1999 3097.00 1.08 2859.88 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-1999 2885.00 0.92 3149.15 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-1999 2576.00 0.82 3141.15 #NAME? #NAME?
May-1999 2489.00 0.80 3101.32 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-1999 3197.00 1.02 3146.86 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-1999 3972.00 1.20 3299.61 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-1999 3999.00 1.21 3292.44 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-1999 3468.00 1.08 3218.91 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-1999 2665.00 0.85 3122.44 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-1999 2610.00 0.85 3056.57 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-1999 3070.00 1.02 3015.61 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2000 3532.00 1.14 3095.02 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2000 3395.00 1.08 3135.06 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2000 2730.00 0.92 2979.95 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2000 2541.00 0.82 3098.47 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2000 2689.00 0.80 3350.53 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2000 3466.00 1.02 3411.64 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2000 3854.00 1.20 3201.59 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2000 3993.00 1.21 3287.50 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2000 3618.00 1.08 3358.14 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2000 2801.00 0.85 3281.78 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2000 2817.00 0.85 3298.99 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2000 3650.00 1.02 3585.33 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2001 4099.00 1.14 3591.87 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2001 3567.00 1.08 3293.89 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2001 2994.00 0.92 3268.13 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2001 2748.00 0.82 3350.88 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2001 2637.00 0.80 3285.73 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2001 3314.00 1.02 3262.02 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2001 3893.00 1.20 3233.98 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2001 4167.00 1.21 3430.76 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2001 3532.00 1.08 3278.32 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2001 2756.00 0.85 3229.06 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2001 2693.00 0.85 3153.77 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2001 3102.00 1.02 3047.04 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2002 3771.00 1.14 3304.45 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2002 3450.00 1.08 3185.85 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2002 3075.00 0.92 3356.54 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2002 2847.00 0.82 3471.60 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2002 2817.00 0.80 3510.02 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2002 3572.00 1.02 3515.97 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2002 4313.00 1.20 3582.89 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2002 4333.00 1.21 3567.43 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2002 3861.00 1.08 3583.69 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2002 3049.00 0.85 3572.35 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2002 2961.00 0.85 3467.62 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2002 3525.00 1.02 3462.54 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2003 4009.00 1.14 3513.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2003 3962.00 1.08 3658.65 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2003 3212.00 0.92 3506.09 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2003 2782.00 0.82 3392.34 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2003 2832.00 0.80 3528.71 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2003 3376.00 1.02 3323.05 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2003 4215.00 1.20 3501.48 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2003 4338.00 1.21 3571.54 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2003 3795.00 1.08 3522.43 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2003 2896.00 0.85 3393.09 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2003 2889.00 0.85 3383.31 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2003 3648.00 1.02 3583.36 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2004 4101.00 1.14 3593.62 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2004 3878.00 1.08 3581.08 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2004 3192.00 0.92 3484.25 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2004 2846.00 0.82 3470.38 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2004 2923.00 0.80 3642.09 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2004 3745.00 1.02 3686.26 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2004 4171.00 1.20 3464.92 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2004 4078.00 1.21 3357.48 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2004 3745.00 1.08 3476.02 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2004 3015.00 0.85 3532.52 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2004 2988.00 0.85 3499.24 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2004 3676.00 1.02 3610.87 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2005 4042.00 1.14 3541.92 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2005 3810.00 1.08 3518.29 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2005 3357.00 0.92 3664.36 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2005 2892.00 0.82 3526.47 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2005 2819.00 0.80 3512.51 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2005 3888.00 1.02 3827.02 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2005 4661.00 1.20 3871.98 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2005 4739.00 1.21 3901.69 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2005 4217.00 1.08 3914.12 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2005 3312.00 0.85 3880.49 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2005 3056.00 0.85 3578.88 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2005 3877.00 1.02 3808.31 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2006 3884.00 1.14 3403.47 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2006 3733.00 1.08 3447.18 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2006 3386.00 0.92 3696.02 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2006 2979.00 0.82 3632.56 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2006 3032.00 0.80 3777.91 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2006 3961.00 1.02 3898.87 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2006 4753.00 1.20 3948.40 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2006 4841.00 1.21 3985.67 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2006 3869.00 1.08 3591.11 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2006 3105.00 0.85 3637.96 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2006 3161.00 0.85 3701.84 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2006 3706.00 1.02 3640.34 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2007 4041.00 1.14 3541.04 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2007 4338.00 1.08 4005.86 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2007 3410.00 0.92 3722.21 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2007 3009.00 0.82 3669.14 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2007 3109.00 0.80 3873.85 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2007 3914.00 1.02 3852.61 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2007 4485.00 1.20 3725.77 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2007 4842.00 1.21 3986.49 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2007 4317.00 1.08 4006.93 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2007 3347.00 0.85 3921.50 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2007 3197.00 0.85 3744.00 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2007 3787.00 1.02 3719.90 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2008 4286.00 1.14 3755.73 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2008 4086.00 1.08 3773.15 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2008 3452.00 0.92 3768.06 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2008 3066.00 0.82 3738.65 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2008 2968.00 0.80 3698.16 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2008 4036.00 1.02 3972.70 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2008 4619.00 1.20 3837.09 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2008 4474.00 1.21 3683.51 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2008 3919.00 1.08 3637.52 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2008 3098.00 0.85 3629.76 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2008 3186.00 0.85 3731.12 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2008 4025.00 1.02 3953.68 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2009 4380.00 1.14 3838.10 #NAME? #NAME?
Feb-2009 4118.00 1.08 3802.70 #NAME? #NAME?
Mar-2009 3431.00 0.92 3745.14 #NAME? #NAME?
Apr-2009 3043.00 0.82 3710.60 #NAME? #NAME?
May-2009 3033.00 0.80 3779.16 #NAME? #NAME?
Jun-2009 3804.00 1.02 3744.34 #NAME? #NAME?
Jul-2009 4434.00 1.20 3683.40 #NAME? #NAME?
Aug-2009 4460.00 1.21 3671.99 #NAME? #NAME?
Sep-2009 3840.00 1.08 3564.19 #NAME? #NAME?
Oct-2009 3173.00 0.85 3717.64 #NAME? #NAME?
Nov-2009 3086.00 0.85 3614.01 #NAME? #NAME?
Dec-2009 4048.00 1.02 3976.28 #NAME? #NAME?
Jan-2010 1.14 #NAME?
y=0
R² = #N/A
Total
Forecast
Linear (Forecast)
Season Season
Forecast Errors
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StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis: Forecast
Performed By: Kishore Shenoi
Date: Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Updating: Live/Unlinked
Forecasting Constant (Optimized)
Level (Alpha) 0.874
Deseason
Simple Exponential Estimate
Mean Abs Err #NAME? #NAME?
Root Mean Sq Err #NAME? #NAME?
Mean Abs Per% Err #NAME? #NAME?
Seasonal Forecast using Simple Expotential and Original
Observations
6000.00
y = 2535.9e0.0019x
5000.00 R² = 0.4232
4000.00
Total
3000.00 Forecast
Expon. (Forecast)
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Jul-1992
Jul-1995
Jul-1998
Jul-2001
Jul-2004
Jul-2007
Jan-1991
Jan-1994
Jan-1997
Jan-2000
Jan-2003
Jan-2006
Jan-2009
Original Observations
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
0.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Forecast Errors
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
-200.00
-400.00
-600.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Season Deseason Jan-2009 Deseason
Forecasting Data Total Index Total Level
Jan-1991 3029.00 1.14 2654.25 2654.25
Feb-1991 2838.00 1.08 2620.71 2624.95
Mar-1991 2384.00 0.92 2602.28 2605.14
Apr-1991 2197.00 0.82 2679.00 2669.66
May-1991 2170.00 0.80 2703.85 2699.53
Jun-1991 2697.00 1.02 2654.70 2660.36
Jul-1991 3048.00 1.20 2532.03 2548.25
Aug-1991 2997.00 1.21 2467.48 2477.68
Sep-1991 2816.00 1.08 2613.74 2596.55
Oct-1991 2234.00 0.85 2617.46 2614.82
Nov-1991 2365.00 0.85 2769.65 2750.08
Dec-1991 2644.00 1.02 2597.15 2616.48
Jan-1992 2951.00 1.14 2585.90 2589.76
Feb-1992 2834.00 1.08 2617.01 2613.57
Mar-1992 2380.00 0.92 2597.91 2599.89
Apr-1992 2282.00 0.82 2782.65 2759.55
May-1992 2090.00 0.80 2604.17 2623.80
Jun-1992 2363.00 1.02 2325.94 2363.58
Jul-1992 2861.00 1.20 2376.68 2375.03
Aug-1992 2853.00 1.21 2348.92 2352.22
Sep-1992 2652.00 1.08 2461.52 2447.71
Oct-1992 2257.00 0.85 2644.41 2619.55
Nov-1992 2337.00 0.85 2736.86 2722.03
Dec-1992 2824.00 1.02 2773.96 2767.40
Jan-1993 3025.00 1.14 2650.74 2665.49
Feb-1993 2979.00 1.08 2750.91 2740.12
Mar-1993 2679.00 0.92 2924.28 2901.01
Apr-1993 2323.00 0.82 2832.64 2841.28
May-1993 2061.00 0.80 2568.03 2602.56
Jun-1993 2553.00 1.02 2512.96 2524.28
Jul-1993 3260.00 1.20 2708.14 2684.90
Aug-1993 3297.00 1.21 2714.47 2710.73
Sep-1993 2964.00 1.08 2751.11 2746.01
Oct-1993 2315.00 0.85 2712.36 2716.61
Nov-1993 2424.00 0.85 2838.74 2823.31
Dec-1993 2829.00 1.02 2778.88 2784.49
Jan-1994 3348.00 1.14 2933.78 2914.91
Feb-1994 3202.00 1.08 2956.84 2951.54
Mar-1994 2578.00 0.92 2814.04 2831.41
Apr-1994 2317.00 0.82 2825.32 2826.09
May-1994 2167.00 0.80 2700.11 2716.03
Jun-1994 2803.00 1.02 2759.04 2753.60
Jul-1994 3342.00 1.20 2776.26 2773.40
Aug-1994 3121.00 1.21 2569.57 2595.33
Sep-1994 2845.00 1.08 2640.66 2634.93
Oct-1994 2313.00 0.85 2710.02 2700.53
Nov-1994 2370.00 0.85 2775.50 2766.03
Dec-1994 2770.00 1.02 2720.92 2726.62
Jan-1995 3115.00 1.14 2729.61 2729.23
Feb-1995 3097.00 1.08 2859.88 2843.37
Mar-1995 2564.00 0.92 2798.76 2804.39
Apr-1995 2286.00 0.82 2787.52 2789.66
May-1995 2261.00 0.80 2817.23 2813.75
Jun-1995 2807.00 1.02 2762.97 2769.39
Jul-1995 3356.00 1.20 2787.89 2785.55
Aug-1995 3707.00 1.21 3052.03 3018.35
Sep-1995 3130.00 1.08 2905.19 2919.49
Oct-1995 2410.00 0.85 2823.67 2835.78
Nov-1995 2564.00 0.85 3002.70 2981.60
Dec-1995 2981.00 1.02 2928.18 2934.93
Jan-1996 3504.00 1.14 3070.48 3053.35
Feb-1996 3314.00 1.08 3060.26 3059.39
Mar-1996 2808.00 0.92 3065.10 3064.37
Apr-1996 2487.00 0.82 3032.62 3036.63
May-1996 2404.00 0.80 2995.41 3000.62
Jun-1996 3032.00 1.02 2984.44 2986.49
Jul-1996 3423.00 1.20 2843.55 2861.61
Aug-1996 3405.00 1.21 2803.39 2810.75
Sep-1996 3053.00 1.08 2833.72 2830.82
Oct-1996 2432.00 0.85 2849.45 2847.09
Nov-1996 2608.00 0.85 3054.23 3028.05
Dec-1996 3024.00 1.02 2970.42 2977.70
Jan-1997 3424.00 1.14 3000.38 2997.51
Feb-1997 3223.00 1.08 2976.23 2978.92
Mar-1997 2626.00 0.92 2866.43 2880.65
Apr-1997 2425.00 0.82 2957.02 2947.37
May-1997 2283.00 0.80 2844.65 2857.63
Jun-1997 2786.00 1.02 2742.30 2756.88
Jul-1997 3527.00 1.20 2929.94 2908.07
Aug-1997 3451.00 1.21 2841.26 2849.71
Sep-1997 3160.00 1.08 2933.03 2922.50
Oct-1997 2714.00 0.85 3179.85 3147.33
Nov-1997 2666.00 0.85 3122.15 3125.33
Dec-1997 3089.00 1.02 3034.27 3045.78
Jan-1998 3308.00 1.14 2898.73 2917.31
Feb-1998 3091.00 1.08 2854.34 2862.30
Mar-1998 2774.00 0.92 3027.98 3007.04
Apr-1998 2473.00 0.82 3015.55 3014.47
May-1998 2501.00 0.80 3116.28 3103.41
Jun-1998 3281.00 1.02 3229.54 3213.60
Jul-1998 3918.00 1.20 3254.75 3249.55
Aug-1998 3880.00 1.21 3194.46 3201.43
Sep-1998 3555.00 1.08 3299.66 3287.25
Oct-1998 2801.00 0.85 3281.78 3282.47
Nov-1998 2567.00 0.85 3006.21 3041.13
Dec-1998 2989.00 1.02 2936.04 2949.32
Jan-1999 3588.00 1.14 3144.09 3119.47
Feb-1999 3097.00 1.08 2859.88 2892.68
Mar-1999 2885.00 0.92 3149.15 3116.73
Apr-1999 2576.00 0.82 3141.15 3138.06
May-1999 2489.00 0.80 3101.32 3105.97
Jun-1999 3197.00 1.02 3146.86 3141.69
Jul-1999 3972.00 1.20 3299.61 3279.65
Aug-1999 3999.00 1.21 3292.44 3290.82
Sep-1999 3468.00 1.08 3218.91 3228.00
Oct-1999 2665.00 0.85 3122.44 3135.78
Nov-1999 2610.00 0.85 3056.57 3066.58
Dec-1999 3070.00 1.02 3015.61 3022.05
Jan-2000 3532.00 1.14 3095.02 3085.79
Feb-2000 3395.00 1.08 3135.06 3128.83
Mar-2000 2730.00 0.92 2979.95 2998.77
Apr-2000 2541.00 0.82 3098.47 3085.87
May-2000 2689.00 0.80 3350.53 3317.08
Jun-2000 3466.00 1.02 3411.64 3399.69
Jul-2000 3854.00 1.20 3201.59 3226.62
Aug-2000 3993.00 1.21 3287.50 3279.81
Sep-2000 3618.00 1.08 3358.14 3348.24
Oct-2000 2801.00 0.85 3281.78 3290.18
Nov-2000 2817.00 0.85 3298.99 3297.87
Dec-2000 3650.00 1.02 3585.33 3549.00
Jan-2001 4099.00 1.14 3591.87 3586.45
Feb-2001 3567.00 1.08 3293.89 3330.86
Mar-2001 2994.00 0.92 3268.13 3276.05
Apr-2001 2748.00 0.82 3350.88 3341.42
May-2001 2637.00 0.80 3285.73 3292.77
Jun-2001 3314.00 1.02 3262.02 3265.91
Jul-2001 3893.00 1.20 3233.98 3238.02
Aug-2001 4167.00 1.21 3430.76 3406.40
Sep-2001 3532.00 1.08 3278.32 3294.50
Oct-2001 2756.00 0.85 3229.06 3237.33
Nov-2001 2693.00 0.85 3153.77 3164.33
Dec-2001 3102.00 1.02 3047.04 3061.86
Jan-2002 3771.00 1.14 3304.45 3273.79
Feb-2002 3450.00 1.08 3185.85 3196.96
Mar-2002 3075.00 0.92 3356.54 3336.37
Apr-2002 2847.00 0.82 3471.60 3454.51
May-2002 2817.00 0.80 3510.02 3503.00
Jun-2002 3572.00 1.02 3515.97 3514.33
Jul-2002 4313.00 1.20 3582.89 3574.22
Aug-2002 4333.00 1.21 3567.43 3568.29
Sep-2002 3861.00 1.08 3583.69 3581.74
Oct-2002 3049.00 0.85 3572.35 3573.54
Nov-2002 2961.00 0.85 3467.62 3481.01
Dec-2002 3525.00 1.02 3462.54 3464.88
Jan-2003 4009.00 1.14 3513.00 3506.92
Feb-2003 3962.00 1.08 3658.65 3639.47
Mar-2003 3212.00 0.92 3506.09 3522.94
Apr-2003 2782.00 0.82 3392.34 3408.85
May-2003 2832.00 0.80 3528.71 3513.56
Jun-2003 3376.00 1.02 3323.05 3347.12
Jul-2003 4215.00 1.20 3501.48 3481.97
Aug-2003 4338.00 1.21 3571.54 3560.22
Sep-2003 3795.00 1.08 3522.43 3527.20
Oct-2003 2896.00 0.85 3393.09 3410.04
Nov-2003 2889.00 0.85 3383.31 3386.68
Dec-2003 3648.00 1.02 3583.36 3558.51
Jan-2004 4101.00 1.14 3593.62 3589.18
Feb-2004 3878.00 1.08 3581.08 3582.10
Mar-2004 3192.00 0.92 3484.25 3496.62
Apr-2004 2846.00 0.82 3470.38 3473.70
May-2004 2923.00 0.80 3642.09 3620.81
Jun-2004 3745.00 1.02 3686.26 3677.99
Jul-2004 4171.00 1.20 3464.92 3491.85
Aug-2004 4078.00 1.21 3357.48 3374.46
Sep-2004 3745.00 1.08 3476.02 3463.18
Oct-2004 3015.00 0.85 3532.52 3523.75
Nov-2004 2988.00 0.85 3499.24 3502.34
Dec-2004 3676.00 1.02 3610.87 3597.15
Jan-2005 4042.00 1.14 3541.92 3548.90
Feb-2005 3810.00 1.08 3518.29 3522.15
Mar-2005 3357.00 0.92 3664.36 3646.39
Apr-2005 2892.00 0.82 3526.47 3541.63
May-2005 2819.00 0.80 3512.51 3516.19
Jun-2005 3888.00 1.02 3827.02 3787.74
Jul-2005 4661.00 1.20 3871.98 3861.33
Aug-2005 4739.00 1.21 3901.69 3896.59
Sep-2005 4217.00 1.08 3914.12 3911.90
Oct-2005 3312.00 0.85 3880.49 3884.46
Nov-2005 3056.00 0.85 3578.88 3617.50
Dec-2005 3877.00 1.02 3808.31 3784.19
Jan-2006 3884.00 1.14 3403.47 3451.58
Feb-2006 3733.00 1.08 3447.18 3447.74
Mar-2006 3386.00 0.92 3696.02 3664.64
Apr-2006 2979.00 0.82 3632.56 3636.61
May-2006 3032.00 0.80 3777.91 3760.05
Jun-2006 3961.00 1.02 3898.87 3881.33
Jul-2006 4753.00 1.20 3948.40 3939.93
Aug-2006 4841.00 1.21 3985.67 3979.89
Sep-2006 3869.00 1.08 3591.11 3640.24
Oct-2006 3105.00 0.85 3637.96 3638.25
Nov-2006 3161.00 0.85 3701.84 3693.81
Dec-2006 3706.00 1.02 3640.34 3647.09
Jan-2007 4041.00 1.14 3541.04 3554.44
Feb-2007 4338.00 1.08 4005.86 3948.81
Mar-2007 3410.00 0.92 3722.21 3750.85
Apr-2007 3009.00 0.82 3669.14 3679.47
May-2007 3109.00 0.80 3873.85 3849.29
Jun-2007 3914.00 1.02 3852.61 3852.19
Jul-2007 4485.00 1.20 3725.77 3741.75
Aug-2007 4842.00 1.21 3986.49 3955.56
Sep-2007 4317.00 1.08 4006.93 4000.44
Oct-2007 3347.00 0.85 3921.50 3931.48
Nov-2007 3197.00 0.85 3744.00 3767.70
Dec-2007 3787.00 1.02 3719.90 3725.94
Jan-2008 4286.00 1.14 3755.73 3751.97
Feb-2008 4086.00 1.08 3773.15 3770.48
Mar-2008 3452.00 0.92 3768.06 3768.36
Apr-2008 3066.00 0.82 3738.65 3742.40
May-2008 2968.00 0.80 3698.16 3703.76
Jun-2008 4036.00 1.02 3972.70 3938.71
Jul-2008 4619.00 1.20 3837.09 3849.93
Aug-2008 4474.00 1.21 3683.51 3704.55
Sep-2008 3919.00 1.08 3637.52 3645.99
Oct-2008 3098.00 0.85 3629.76 3631.81
Nov-2008 3186.00 0.85 3731.12 3718.57
Dec-2008 4025.00 1.02 3953.68 3923.97
Jan-2009 4380.00 1.14 3838.10 3848.95
Feb-2009 4118.00 1.08 3802.70 3808.55
Mar-2009 3431.00 0.92 3745.14 3753.15
Apr-2009 3043.00 0.82 3710.60 3715.98
May-2009 3033.00 0.80 3779.16 3771.17
Jun-2009 3804.00 1.02 3744.34 3747.73
Jul-2009 4434.00 1.20 3683.40 3691.53
Aug-2009 4460.00 1.21 3671.99 3674.46
Sep-2009 3840.00 1.08 3564.19 3578.13
Oct-2009 3173.00 0.85 3717.64 3700.00
Nov-2009 3086.00 0.85 3614.01 3624.88
Dec-2009 4048.00 1.02 3976.28 3931.87
Jan-2010 1.14
Deseason Deseason Season Season
Forecast Errors Forecast Errors
2654.25 -33.54 2874.32 -36.32
2624.95 -22.67 2404.77 -20.77
2605.14 73.86 2136.43 60.57
2669.66 34.18 2142.57 27.43
2699.53 -44.83 2742.54 -45.54
2660.36 -128.34 3202.49 -154.49
2548.25 -80.77 3095.10 -98.10
2477.68 136.06 2669.41 146.59
2596.55 20.91 2216.15 17.85
2614.82 154.83 2232.79 132.21
2750.08 -152.93 2799.69 -155.69
2616.48 -30.58 2985.90 -34.90
2589.76 27.25 2804.49 29.51
2613.57 -15.66 2394.35 -14.35
2599.89 182.76 2132.12 149.88
2759.55 -155.38 2214.70 -124.70
2623.80 -297.87 2665.61 -302.61
2363.58 13.10 2845.23 15.77
2375.03 -26.11 2884.71 -31.71
2352.22 109.30 2534.24 117.76
2447.71 196.70 2089.12 167.88
2619.55 117.31 2236.83 100.17
2722.03 51.93 2771.13 52.87
2767.40 -116.66 3158.13 -133.13
2665.49 85.43 2886.49 92.51
2740.12 184.17 2510.28 168.72
2901.01 -68.37 2379.07 -56.07
2841.28 -273.25 2280.30 -219.30
2602.56 -89.61 2644.04 -91.04
2524.28 183.86 3038.67 221.33
2684.90 29.57 3261.09 35.91
2710.73 40.38 2920.50 43.50
2746.01 -33.65 2343.72 -28.72
2716.61 122.13 2319.71 104.29
2823.31 -44.43 2874.24 -45.24
2784.49 149.29 3177.63 170.37
2914.91 41.92 3156.60 45.40
2951.54 -137.50 2703.97 -125.97
2831.41 -6.09 2321.99 -4.99
2826.09 -125.98 2268.11 -101.11
2716.03 43.00 2759.31 43.69
2753.60 22.66 3314.72 27.28
2773.40 -203.83 3368.57 -247.57
2595.33 45.33 2796.16 48.84
2634.93 75.09 2248.91 64.09
2700.53 74.98 2305.98 64.02
2766.03 -45.11 2815.92 -45.92
2726.62 2.99 3111.59 3.41
2729.23 130.65 2955.52 141.48
2843.37 -44.61 2604.87 -40.87
2804.39 -16.87 2299.84 -13.84
2789.66 27.58 2238.87 22.13
2813.75 -50.78 2858.58 -51.58
2769.39 18.50 3333.73 22.27
2785.55 266.48 3383.33 323.67
3018.35 -113.16 3251.92 -121.92
2919.49 -95.82 2491.78 -81.78
2835.78 166.92 2421.47 142.53
2981.60 -53.42 3035.38 -54.38
2934.93 135.55 3349.32 154.68
3053.35 6.91 3306.51 7.49
3059.39 5.71 2802.77 5.23
3064.37 -31.75 2513.04 -26.04
3036.63 -41.22 2437.08 -33.08
3000.62 -16.18 3048.44 -16.44
2986.49 -142.94 3595.07 -172.07
2861.61 -58.22 3475.72 -70.72
2810.75 22.97 3028.25 24.75
2830.82 18.63 2416.10 15.90
2847.09 207.14 2431.13 176.87
3028.05 -57.63 3082.67 -58.67
2977.70 22.67 3398.12 25.88
2997.51 -21.28 3246.05 -23.05
2978.92 -112.49 2729.05 -103.05
2880.65 76.37 2362.37 62.63
2947.37 -102.72 2365.44 -82.44
2857.63 -115.33 2903.16 -117.16
2756.88 173.06 3318.67 208.33
2908.07 -66.81 3532.14 -81.14
2849.71 83.33 3070.22 89.78
2922.50 257.35 2494.36 219.64
3147.33 -25.18 2687.50 -21.50
3125.33 -91.06 3181.71 -92.71
3045.78 -147.05 3475.81 -167.81
2917.31 -62.98 3159.20 -68.20
2862.30 165.69 2622.21 151.79
3007.04 8.51 2466.02 6.98
3014.47 101.80 2419.30 81.70
3103.41 126.13 3152.86 128.14
3213.60 41.15 3868.46 49.54
3249.55 -55.09 3946.91 -66.91
3201.43 98.24 3449.16 105.84
3287.25 -5.47 2805.67 -4.67
3282.47 -276.26 2802.90 -235.90
3041.13 -105.09 3095.98 -106.98
2949.32 194.77 3365.73 222.27
3119.47 -259.60 3378.12 -281.12
2892.68 256.46 2650.05 234.95
3116.73 24.41 2555.98 20.02
3138.06 -36.74 2518.48 -29.48
3105.97 40.89 3155.46 41.54
3141.69 157.92 3781.90 190.10
3279.65 12.79 3983.47 15.53
3290.82 -71.91 3545.48 -77.48
3228.00 -105.56 2755.10 -90.10
3135.78 -79.21 2677.64 -67.64
3066.58 -50.97 3121.89 -51.89
3022.05 72.97 3448.73 83.27
3085.79 49.27 3341.65 53.35
3128.83 -148.88 2866.39 -136.39
2998.77 99.70 2459.24 81.76
3085.87 264.66 2476.59 212.41
3317.08 94.56 3369.94 96.06
3399.69 -198.10 4092.47 -238.47
3226.62 60.88 3919.06 73.94
3279.81 78.33 3533.60 84.40
3348.24 -66.46 2857.72 -56.72
3290.18 8.80 2809.48 7.52
3297.87 287.46 3357.36 292.64
3549.00 42.87 4050.08 48.92
3586.45 -292.56 3883.81 -316.81
3330.86 -62.74 3051.48 -57.48
3276.05 74.83 2686.64 61.36
3341.42 -55.69 2681.69 -44.69
3292.77 -30.75 3345.24 -31.24
3265.91 -31.92 3931.43 -38.43
3238.02 192.74 3932.90 234.10
3406.40 -128.08 3669.99 -137.99
3294.50 -65.44 2811.86 -55.86
3237.33 -83.56 2764.35 -71.35
3164.33 -117.29 3221.41 -119.41
3061.86 242.58 3494.16 276.84
3273.79 -87.94 3545.23 -95.23
3196.96 159.58 2928.81 146.19
3336.37 135.23 2736.10 110.90
3454.51 55.51 2772.45 44.55
3503.00 12.97 3558.82 13.18
3514.33 68.55 4230.48 82.52
3574.22 -6.80 4341.25 -8.25
3568.29 15.40 3844.41 16.59
3581.74 -9.39 3057.01 -8.01
3573.54 -105.91 3051.44 -90.44
3481.01 -18.47 3543.80 -18.80
3464.88 48.12 3954.08 54.92
3506.92 151.73 3797.69 164.31
3639.47 -133.39 3334.20 -122.20
3522.94 -130.60 2889.11 -107.11
3408.85 119.86 2735.80 96.20
3513.56 -190.51 3569.55 -193.55
3347.12 154.35 4029.20 185.80
3481.97 89.57 4229.20 108.80
3560.22 -37.80 3835.72 -40.72
3527.20 -134.11 3010.47 -114.47
3410.04 -26.73 2911.83 -22.83
3386.68 196.68 3447.77 200.23
3558.51 35.11 4060.93 40.07
3589.18 -8.10 3886.77 -8.77
3582.10 -97.85 3281.64 -89.64
3496.62 -26.24 2867.52 -21.52
3473.70 168.40 2787.85 135.15
3620.81 65.45 3678.51 66.49
3677.99 -213.06 4427.48 -256.48
3491.85 -134.37 4241.21 -163.21
3374.46 101.55 3635.59 109.41
3463.18 69.33 2955.82 59.18
3523.75 -24.51 3008.93 -20.93
3502.34 108.53 3565.52 110.48
3597.15 -55.23 4105.03 -63.03
3548.90 -30.61 3843.15 -33.15
3522.15 142.21 3226.72 130.28
3646.39 -119.92 2990.34 -98.34
3541.63 -29.12 2842.37 -23.37
3516.19 310.83 3572.22 315.78
3787.74 84.24 4559.59 101.41
3861.33 40.36 4689.98 49.02
3896.59 17.52 4198.12 18.88
3911.90 -31.41 3338.81 -26.81
3884.46 -305.58 3316.94 -260.94
3617.50 190.81 3682.75 194.25
3784.19 -380.73 4318.48 -434.48
3451.58 -4.40 3737.76 -4.76
3447.74 248.28 3158.55 227.45
3664.64 -32.08 3005.31 -26.31
3636.61 141.30 2918.60 113.40
3760.05 138.82 3819.97 141.03
3881.33 67.07 4672.26 80.74
3939.93 45.75 4785.44 55.56
3979.89 -388.78 4287.86 -418.86
3640.24 -2.28 3106.95 -1.95
3638.25 63.59 3106.70 54.30
3693.81 -53.47 3760.44 -54.44
3647.09 -106.05 4162.03 -121.03
3554.44 451.42 3849.16 488.84
3948.81 -226.60 3617.59 -207.59
3750.85 -81.71 3076.01 -67.01
3679.47 194.38 2952.99 156.01
3849.29 3.32 3910.62 3.38
3852.19 -126.42 4637.18 -152.18
3741.75 244.75 4544.73 297.27
3955.56 51.37 4261.65 55.35
4000.44 -78.94 3414.37 -67.37
3931.48 -187.47 3357.08 -160.08
3767.70 -47.80 3835.66 -48.66
3725.94 29.79 4252.01 33.99
3751.97 21.19 4063.05 22.95
3770.48 -2.42 3454.21 -2.21
3768.36 -29.72 3090.37 -24.37
3742.40 -44.24 3003.50 -35.50
3703.76 268.94 3762.77 273.23
3938.71 -101.62 4741.33 -122.33
3849.93 -166.41 4676.13 -202.13
3704.55 -67.03 3991.21 -72.21
3645.99 -16.23 3111.85 -13.85
3631.81 99.31 3101.20 84.80
3718.57 235.11 3785.65 239.35
3923.97 -85.87 4478.00 -98.00
3848.95 -46.25 4168.08 -50.08
3808.55 -63.41 3489.09 -58.09
3753.15 -42.55 3077.89 -34.89
3715.98 63.18 2982.30 50.70
3771.17 -26.84 3831.26 -27.26
3747.73 -64.32 4511.43 -77.43
3691.53 -19.54 4483.74 -23.74
3674.46 -110.26 3958.80 -118.80
3578.13 139.51 3053.93 119.07
3700.00 -85.99 3159.43 -73.43
3624.88 351.40 3690.26 357.74
3931.87 4487.01
StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis: Forecast
Performed By: Kishore Shenoi
Date: Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Updating: Live/Unlinked
Forecasting Constants (Optimized)
Level (Alpha) 0.593
Trend (Beta) 0.000
Deseason
Holt's Exponential Estimate
Mean Abs Err #NAME? #NAME?
Root Mean Sq Err #NAME? #NAME?
Mean Abs Per% Err #NAME? #NAME?
Seasonal Forecast using Holt's Expotential and Original
Observations
6000.00
y = 2543.6e0.0019x
5000.00
R² = 0.4265
4000.00
Total
3000.00 Forecast
Expon. (Forecast)
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Jul-1992
Jul-1995
Jul-1998
Jul-2001
Jul-2004
Jul-2007
Jan-1991
Jan-1994
Jan-1997
Jan-2000
Jan-2003
Jan-2006
Jan-2009
Original Observations
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Forecast Errors
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
-100.00
-200.00
-300.00
-400.00
-500.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Season Deseason Deseason
Forecasting Data Total Index Total Level
Jan-1991 3029.00 1.14 2654.25 2654.25
Feb-1991 2838.00 1.08 2620.71 2636.70
Mar-1991 2384.00 0.92 2602.28 2618.63
Apr-1991 2197.00 0.82 2679.00 2656.81
May-1991 2170.00 0.80 2703.85 2687.08
Jun-1991 2697.00 1.02 2654.70 2670.22
Jul-1991 3048.00 1.20 2532.03 2590.56
Aug-1991 2997.00 1.21 2467.48 2519.87
Sep-1991 2816.00 1.08 2613.74 2577.94
Oct-1991 2234.00 0.85 2617.46 2603.75
Nov-1991 2365.00 0.85 2769.65 2704.56
Dec-1991 2644.00 1.02 2597.15 2643.18
Jan-1992 2951.00 1.14 2585.90 2611.54
Feb-1992 2834.00 1.08 2617.01 2617.15
Mar-1992 2380.00 0.92 2597.91 2608.09
Apr-1992 2282.00 0.82 2782.65 2714.04
May-1992 2090.00 0.80 2604.17 2651.19
Jun-1992 2363.00 1.02 2325.94 2460.52
Jul-1992 2861.00 1.20 2376.68 2413.12
Aug-1992 2853.00 1.21 2348.92 2377.38
Sep-1992 2652.00 1.08 2461.52 2429.67
Oct-1992 2257.00 0.85 2644.41 2559.47
Nov-1992 2337.00 0.85 2736.86 2667.10
Dec-1992 2824.00 1.02 2773.96 2732.88
Jan-1993 3025.00 1.14 2650.74 2686.49
Feb-1993 2979.00 1.08 2750.91 2727.08
Mar-1993 2679.00 0.92 2924.28 2846.47
Apr-1993 2323.00 0.82 2832.64 2840.62
May-1993 2061.00 0.80 2568.03 2681.20
Jun-1993 2553.00 1.02 2512.96 2583.71
Jul-1993 3260.00 1.20 2708.14 2659.91
Aug-1993 3297.00 1.21 2714.47 2694.65
Sep-1993 2964.00 1.08 2751.11 2730.52
Oct-1993 2315.00 0.85 2712.36 2722.10
Nov-1993 2424.00 0.85 2838.74 2793.68
Dec-1993 2829.00 1.02 2778.88 2787.25
Jan-1994 3348.00 1.14 2933.78 2876.57
Feb-1994 3202.00 1.08 2956.84 2926.56
Mar-1994 2578.00 0.92 2814.04 2862.14
Apr-1994 2317.00 0.82 2825.32 2842.65
May-1994 2167.00 0.80 2700.11 2760.41
Jun-1994 2803.00 1.02 2759.04 2761.95
Jul-1994 3342.00 1.20 2776.26 2772.80
Aug-1994 3121.00 1.21 2569.57 2654.55
Sep-1994 2845.00 1.08 2640.66 2648.66
Oct-1994 2313.00 0.85 2710.02 2687.43
Nov-1994 2370.00 0.85 2775.50 2742.06
Dec-1994 2770.00 1.02 2720.92 2731.87
Jan-1995 3115.00 1.14 2729.61 2732.88
Feb-1995 3097.00 1.08 2859.88 2810.61
Mar-1995 2564.00 0.92 2798.76 2805.93
Apr-1995 2286.00 0.82 2787.52 2797.36
May-1995 2261.00 0.80 2817.23 2811.51
Jun-1995 2807.00 1.02 2762.97 2785.06
Jul-1995 3356.00 1.20 2787.89 2789.10
Aug-1995 3707.00 1.21 3052.03 2947.50
Sep-1995 3130.00 1.08 2905.19 2924.75
Oct-1995 2410.00 0.85 2823.67 2867.12
Nov-1995 2564.00 0.85 3002.70 2949.94
Dec-1995 2981.00 1.02 2928.18 2939.38
Jan-1996 3504.00 1.14 3070.48 3019.54
Feb-1996 3314.00 1.08 3060.26 3046.07
Mar-1996 2808.00 0.92 3065.10 3059.72
Apr-1996 2487.00 0.82 3032.62 3045.99
May-1996 2404.00 0.80 2995.41 3018.33
Jun-1996 3032.00 1.02 2984.44 3000.58
Jul-1996 3423.00 1.20 2843.55 2909.74
Aug-1996 3405.00 1.21 2803.39 2848.98
Sep-1996 3053.00 1.08 2833.72 2842.28
Oct-1996 2432.00 0.85 2849.45 2848.89
Nov-1996 2608.00 0.85 3054.23 2973.11
Dec-1996 3024.00 1.02 2970.42 2973.87
Jan-1997 3424.00 1.14 3000.38 2991.96
Feb-1997 3223.00 1.08 2976.23 2984.98
Mar-1997 2626.00 0.92 2866.43 2916.98
Apr-1997 2425.00 0.82 2957.02 2943.10
May-1997 2283.00 0.80 2844.65 2887.03
Jun-1997 2786.00 1.02 2742.30 2803.49
Jul-1997 3527.00 1.20 2929.94 2880.89
Aug-1997 3451.00 1.21 2841.26 2859.73
Sep-1997 3160.00 1.08 2933.03 2905.59
Oct-1997 2714.00 0.85 3179.85 3070.71
Nov-1997 2666.00 0.85 3122.15 3103.60
Dec-1997 3089.00 1.02 3034.27 3064.81
Jan-1998 3308.00 1.14 2898.73 2968.60
Feb-1998 3091.00 1.08 2854.34 2903.15
Mar-1998 2774.00 0.92 3027.98 2979.59
Apr-1998 2473.00 0.82 3015.55 3003.29
May-1998 2501.00 0.80 3116.28 3072.70
Jun-1998 3281.00 1.02 3229.54 3168.14
Jul-1998 3918.00 1.20 3254.75 3221.90
Aug-1998 3880.00 1.21 3194.46 3207.97
Sep-1998 3555.00 1.08 3299.66 3264.75
Oct-1998 2801.00 0.85 3281.78 3277.21
Nov-1998 2567.00 0.85 3006.21 3118.74
Dec-1998 2989.00 1.02 2936.04 3012.67
Jan-1999 3588.00 1.14 3144.09 3093.02
Feb-1999 3097.00 1.08 2859.88 2957.01
Mar-1999 2885.00 0.92 3149.15 3073.40
Apr-1999 2576.00 0.82 3141.15 3115.96
May-1999 2489.00 0.80 3101.32 3109.63
Jun-1999 3197.00 1.02 3146.86 3134.08
Jul-1999 3972.00 1.20 3299.61 3234.68
Aug-1999 3999.00 1.21 3292.44 3271.31
Sep-1999 3468.00 1.08 3218.91 3242.57
Oct-1999 2665.00 0.85 3122.44 3173.63
Nov-1999 2610.00 0.85 3056.57 3106.52
Dec-1999 3070.00 1.02 3015.61 3054.92
Jan-2000 3532.00 1.14 3095.02 3081.07
Feb-2000 3395.00 1.08 3135.06 3115.47
Mar-2000 2730.00 0.92 2979.95 3037.40
Apr-2000 2541.00 0.82 3098.47 3076.00
May-2000 2689.00 0.80 3350.53 3241.28
Jun-2000 3466.00 1.02 3411.64 3344.74
Jul-2000 3854.00 1.20 3201.59 3262.14
Aug-2000 3993.00 1.21 3287.50 3279.55
Sep-2000 3618.00 1.08 3358.14 3328.55
Oct-2000 2801.00 0.85 3281.78 3303.15
Nov-2000 2817.00 0.85 3298.99 3303.04
Dec-2000 3650.00 1.02 3585.33 3472.93
Jan-2001 4099.00 1.14 3591.87 3545.87
Feb-2001 3567.00 1.08 3293.89 3398.69
Mar-2001 2994.00 0.92 3268.13 3323.56
Apr-2001 2748.00 0.82 3350.88 3342.13
May-2001 2637.00 0.80 3285.73 3311.02
Jun-2001 3314.00 1.02 3262.02 3284.30
Jul-2001 3893.00 1.20 3233.98 3256.80
Aug-2001 4167.00 1.21 3430.76 3362.39
Sep-2001 3532.00 1.08 3278.32 3314.85
Oct-2001 2756.00 0.85 3229.06 3266.29
Nov-2001 2693.00 0.85 3153.77 3201.87
Dec-2001 3102.00 1.02 3047.04 3112.34
Jan-2002 3771.00 1.14 3304.45 3228.71
Feb-2002 3450.00 1.08 3185.85 3205.63
Mar-2002 3075.00 0.92 3356.54 3297.55
Apr-2002 2847.00 0.82 3471.60 3403.20
May-2002 2817.00 0.80 3510.02 3468.95
Jun-2002 3572.00 1.02 3515.97 3499.21
Jul-2002 4313.00 1.20 3582.89 3551.23
Aug-2002 4333.00 1.21 3567.43 3563.20
Sep-2002 3861.00 1.08 3583.69 3577.71
Oct-2002 3049.00 0.85 3572.35 3576.89
Nov-2002 2961.00 0.85 3467.62 3514.40
Dec-2002 3525.00 1.02 3462.54 3485.98
Jan-2003 4009.00 1.14 3513.00 3504.37
Feb-2003 3962.00 1.08 3658.65 3598.29
Mar-2003 3212.00 0.92 3506.09 3545.93
Apr-2003 2782.00 0.82 3392.34 3457.13
May-2003 2832.00 0.80 3528.71 3501.97
Jun-2003 3376.00 1.02 3323.05 3398.14
Jul-2003 4215.00 1.20 3501.48 3461.82
Aug-2003 4338.00 1.21 3571.54 3529.30
Sep-2003 3795.00 1.08 3522.43 3527.58
Oct-2003 2896.00 0.85 3393.09 3450.12
Nov-2003 2889.00 0.85 3383.31 3412.82
Dec-2003 3648.00 1.02 3583.36 3516.39
Jan-2004 4101.00 1.14 3593.62 3564.58
Feb-2004 3878.00 1.08 3581.08 3576.73
Mar-2004 3192.00 0.92 3484.25 3524.21
Apr-2004 2846.00 0.82 3470.38 3494.62
May-2004 2923.00 0.80 3642.09 3584.50
Jun-2004 3745.00 1.02 3686.26 3647.25
Jul-2004 4171.00 1.20 3464.92 3541.40
Aug-2004 4078.00 1.21 3357.48 3434.61
Sep-2004 3745.00 1.08 3476.02 3461.54
Oct-2004 3015.00 0.85 3532.52 3506.02
Nov-2004 2988.00 0.85 3499.24 3504.36
Dec-2004 3676.00 1.02 3610.87 3569.92
Jan-2005 4042.00 1.14 3541.92 3555.66
Feb-2005 3810.00 1.08 3518.29 3535.84
Mar-2005 3357.00 0.92 3664.36 3614.47
Apr-2005 2892.00 0.82 3526.47 3564.60
May-2005 2819.00 0.80 3512.51 3536.04
Jun-2005 3888.00 1.02 3827.02 3711.09
Jul-2005 4661.00 1.20 3871.98 3808.93
Aug-2005 4739.00 1.21 3901.69 3866.34
Sep-2005 4217.00 1.08 3914.12 3897.05
Oct-2005 3312.00 0.85 3880.49 3889.58
Nov-2005 3056.00 0.85 3578.88 3707.55
Dec-2005 3877.00 1.02 3808.31 3769.70
Jan-2006 3884.00 1.14 3403.47 3554.71
Feb-2006 3733.00 1.08 3447.18 3493.25
Mar-2006 3386.00 0.92 3696.02 3615.94
Apr-2006 2979.00 0.82 3632.56 3628.16
May-2006 3032.00 0.80 3777.91 3719.39
Jun-2006 3961.00 1.02 3898.87 3828.26
Jul-2006 4753.00 1.20 3948.40 3901.92
Aug-2006 4841.00 1.21 3985.67 3953.98
Sep-2006 3869.00 1.08 3591.11 3740.99
Oct-2006 3105.00 0.85 3637.96 3682.20
Nov-2006 3161.00 0.85 3701.84 3696.22
Dec-2006 3706.00 1.02 3640.34 3665.41
Jan-2007 4041.00 1.14 3541.04 3593.96
Feb-2007 4338.00 1.08 4005.86 3840.77
Mar-2007 3410.00 0.92 3722.21 3772.77
Apr-2007 3009.00 0.82 3669.14 3713.63
May-2007 3109.00 0.80 3873.85 3811.07
Jun-2007 3914.00 1.02 3852.61 3838.08
Jul-2007 4485.00 1.20 3725.77 3773.78
Aug-2007 4842.00 1.21 3986.49 3902.38
Sep-2007 4317.00 1.08 4006.93 3966.79
Oct-2007 3347.00 0.85 3921.50 3942.27
Nov-2007 3197.00 0.85 3744.00 3826.96
Dec-2007 3787.00 1.02 3719.90 3765.78
Jan-2008 4286.00 1.14 3755.73 3762.17
Feb-2008 4086.00 1.08 3773.15 3771.05
Mar-2008 3452.00 0.92 3768.06 3771.63
Apr-2008 3066.00 0.82 3738.65 3754.41
May-2008 2968.00 0.80 3698.16 3723.39
Jun-2008 4036.00 1.02 3972.70 3873.70
Jul-2008 4619.00 1.20 3837.09 3854.33
Aug-2008 4474.00 1.21 3683.51 3755.31
Sep-2008 3919.00 1.08 3637.52 3687.76
Oct-2008 3098.00 0.85 3629.76 3655.70
Nov-2008 3186.00 0.85 3731.12 3702.82
Dec-2008 4025.00 1.02 3953.68 3854.06
Jan-2009 4380.00 1.14 3838.10 3846.94
Feb-2009 4118.00 1.08 3802.70 3823.05
Mar-2009 3431.00 0.92 3745.14 3779.17
Apr-2009 3043.00 0.82 3710.60 3740.83
May-2009 3033.00 0.80 3779.16 3765.93
Jun-2009 3804.00 1.02 3744.34 3755.47
Jul-2009 4434.00 1.20 3683.40 3715.06
Aug-2009 4460.00 1.21 3671.99 3691.85
Sep-2009 3840.00 1.08 3564.19 3618.45
Oct-2009 3173.00 0.85 3717.64 3679.67
Nov-2009 3086.00 0.85 3614.01 3643.06
Dec-2009 4048.00 1.02 3976.28 3843.17
Jan-2010 1.14
Deseason Deseason Deseason Season Season
Trend Forecast Errors Forecast Errors
5.80
5.80 2660.05 -39.34 2880.60 -42.60
5.80 2642.50 -40.22 2420.85 -36.85
5.80 2624.43 54.57 2152.25 44.75
5.80 2662.61 41.24 2136.91 33.09
5.80 2692.88 -38.18 2735.79 -38.79
5.80 2676.02 -143.99 3221.33 -173.33
5.80 2596.36 -128.89 3153.55 -156.55
5.80 2525.67 88.07 2721.11 94.89
5.80 2583.74 33.72 2205.22 28.78
5.80 2609.55 160.10 2228.29 136.71
5.80 2710.36 -113.21 2759.25 -115.25
5.80 2648.97 -63.08 3022.98 -71.98
5.80 2617.34 -0.32 2834.35 -0.35
5.80 2622.94 -25.04 2402.94 -22.94
5.80 2613.88 168.76 2143.60 138.40
5.80 2719.84 -115.67 2182.83 -92.83
5.80 2656.99 -331.05 2699.33 -336.33
5.80 2466.32 -89.63 2968.90 -107.90
5.80 2418.92 -70.00 2938.02 -85.02
5.80 2383.18 78.35 2567.59 84.41
5.80 2435.47 208.94 2078.67 178.33
5.80 2565.27 171.59 2190.48 146.52
5.80 2672.90 101.06 2721.11 102.89
5.80 2738.68 -87.93 3125.35 -100.35
5.80 2692.29 58.62 2915.52 63.48
5.80 2732.88 191.41 2503.65 175.35
5.80 2852.27 -19.63 2339.10 -16.10
5.80 2846.42 -278.39 2284.42 -223.42
5.80 2687.00 -174.05 2729.82 -176.82
5.80 2589.51 118.63 3117.20 142.80
5.80 2665.71 48.76 3237.78 59.22
5.80 2700.45 50.66 2909.41 54.59
5.80 2736.31 -23.95 2335.44 -20.44
5.80 2727.90 110.85 2329.35 94.65
5.80 2799.48 -20.60 2849.98 -20.98
5.80 2793.05 140.73 3187.40 160.60
5.80 2882.37 74.47 3121.36 80.64
5.80 2932.36 -118.32 2686.40 -108.40
5.80 2867.94 -42.61 2351.95 -34.95
5.80 2848.45 -148.34 2286.05 -119.05
5.80 2766.21 -7.18 2810.29 -7.29
5.80 2767.75 8.51 3331.76 10.24
5.80 2778.60 -209.03 3374.89 -253.89
5.80 2660.34 -19.68 2866.21 -21.21
5.80 2654.46 55.56 2265.58 47.42
5.80 2693.23 82.27 2299.75 70.25
5.80 2747.86 -26.94 2797.42 -27.42
5.80 2737.67 -8.06 3124.20 -9.20
5.80 2738.68 121.19 2965.76 131.24
5.80 2816.41 -17.65 2580.17 -16.17
5.80 2811.73 -24.21 2305.85 -19.85
5.80 2803.16 14.07 2249.71 11.29
5.80 2817.31 -54.34 2862.20 -55.20
5.80 2790.86 -2.97 3359.58 -3.58
5.80 2794.90 257.13 3394.68 312.32
5.80 2953.30 -48.11 3181.83 -51.83
5.80 2930.54 -106.88 2501.22 -91.22
5.80 2872.92 129.78 2453.18 110.82
5.80 2955.74 -27.55 3009.05 -28.05
5.80 2945.18 125.30 3361.01 142.99
5.80 3025.34 34.92 3276.18 37.82
5.80 3051.86 13.23 2795.88 12.12
5.80 3065.52 -32.89 2513.98 -26.98
5.80 3051.79 -56.38 2449.25 -45.25
5.80 3024.13 -39.69 3072.32 -40.32
5.80 3006.38 -162.83 3619.01 -196.01
5.80 2915.54 -112.15 3541.22 -136.22
5.80 2854.78 -21.06 3075.69 -22.69
5.80 2848.08 1.36 2430.84 1.16
5.80 2854.69 199.54 2437.61 170.39
5.80 2978.91 -8.49 3032.64 -8.64
5.80 2979.67 20.71 3400.37 23.63
5.80 2997.76 -21.53 3246.31 -23.31
5.80 2990.78 -124.35 2739.92 -113.92
5.80 2922.78 34.24 2396.92 28.08
5.80 2948.90 -104.25 2366.67 -83.67
5.80 2892.83 -150.52 2938.92 -152.92
5.80 2809.29 120.65 3381.77 145.23
5.80 2886.69 -45.43 3506.18 -55.18
5.80 2865.53 67.51 3087.27 72.73
5.80 2911.39 268.46 2484.87 229.13
5.80 3076.51 45.64 2627.03 38.97
5.80 3109.39 -75.13 3165.48 -76.48
5.80 3070.61 -171.88 3504.15 -196.15
5.80 2974.40 -120.07 3221.02 -130.02
5.80 2908.95 119.04 2664.95 109.05
5.80 2985.39 30.16 2448.27 24.73
5.80 3009.09 107.19 2414.97 86.03
5.80 3078.50 151.04 3127.55 153.45
5.80 3173.93 80.82 3820.71 97.29
5.80 3227.70 -33.23 3920.36 -40.36
5.80 3213.77 85.89 3462.46 92.54
5.80 3270.54 11.24 2791.41 9.59
5.80 3283.01 -276.80 2803.36 -236.36
5.80 3124.54 -188.50 3180.90 -191.90
5.80 3018.47 125.62 3444.65 143.35
5.80 3098.82 -238.94 3355.75 -258.75
5.80 2962.81 186.33 2714.30 170.70
5.80 3079.19 61.95 2525.19 50.81
5.80 3121.76 -20.43 2505.40 -16.40
5.80 3115.43 31.43 3165.07 31.93
5.80 3139.88 159.73 3779.72 192.28
5.80 3240.47 51.97 3935.88 63.12
5.80 3277.11 -58.20 3530.70 -62.70
5.80 3248.37 -125.93 2772.48 -107.48
5.80 3179.43 -122.86 2714.91 -104.91
5.80 3112.32 -96.71 3168.45 -98.45
5.80 3060.72 34.30 3492.86 39.14
5.80 3086.87 48.19 3342.82 52.18
5.80 3121.27 -141.31 2859.46 -129.46
5.80 3043.20 55.27 2495.68 45.32
5.80 3081.80 268.73 2473.33 215.67
5.80 3247.08 164.56 3298.82 167.18
5.80 3350.54 -148.95 4033.30 -179.30
5.80 3267.94 19.56 3969.24 23.76
5.80 3285.35 72.79 3539.57 78.43
5.80 3334.34 -52.56 2845.86 -44.86
5.80 3308.95 -9.96 2825.51 -8.51
5.80 3308.83 276.49 3368.52 281.48
5.80 3478.72 113.14 3969.88 129.12
5.80 3551.67 -257.78 3846.15 -279.15
5.80 3404.48 -136.36 3118.92 -124.92
5.80 3329.36 21.52 2730.35 17.65
5.80 3347.93 -62.19 2686.92 -49.92
5.80 3316.82 -54.80 3369.67 -55.67
5.80 3290.10 -56.11 3960.55 -67.55
5.80 3262.59 168.16 3962.75 204.25
5.80 3368.19 -89.88 3628.83 -96.83
5.80 3320.65 -91.59 2834.17 -78.17
5.80 3272.09 -118.32 2794.04 -101.04
5.80 3207.67 -160.63 3265.53 -163.53
5.80 3118.14 186.31 3558.39 212.61
5.80 3234.50 -48.65 3502.69 -52.69
5.80 3211.43 145.11 2942.06 132.94
5.80 3303.35 168.25 2709.02 137.98
5.80 3409.00 101.02 2735.93 81.07
5.80 3474.75 41.23 3530.12 41.88
5.80 3505.01 77.87 4219.26 93.74
5.80 3557.03 10.40 4320.37 12.63
5.80 3569.00 14.69 3845.17 15.83
5.80 3583.51 -11.16 3058.53 -9.53
5.80 3582.69 -115.06 3059.25 -98.25
5.80 3520.20 -57.66 3583.70 -58.70
5.80 3491.78 21.22 3984.78 24.22
5.80 3510.17 148.48 3801.21 160.79
5.80 3604.09 -98.00 3301.78 -89.78
5.80 3551.72 -159.38 2912.71 -130.71
5.80 3462.93 65.77 2779.21 52.79
5.80 3507.77 -184.72 3563.66 -187.66
5.80 3403.94 97.54 4097.59 117.41
5.80 3467.62 103.92 4211.78 126.22
5.80 3535.09 -12.67 3808.65 -13.65
5.80 3533.37 -140.29 3015.73 -119.73
5.80 3455.92 -72.61 2951.00 -62.00
5.80 3418.62 164.74 3480.29 167.71
5.80 3522.19 71.43 4019.49 81.51
5.80 3570.38 10.70 3866.41 11.59
5.80 3582.53 -98.27 3282.03 -90.03
5.80 3530.00 -59.62 2894.90 -48.90
5.80 3500.42 141.68 2809.30 113.70
5.80 3590.30 95.96 3647.51 97.49
5.80 3653.05 -188.12 4397.46 -226.46
5.80 3547.20 -189.72 4308.43 -230.43
5.80 3440.41 35.61 3706.63 38.37
5.80 3467.34 65.18 2959.37 55.63
5.80 3511.82 -12.57 2998.74 -10.74
5.80 3510.15 100.71 3573.47 102.53
5.80 3575.72 -33.81 4080.58 -38.58
5.80 3561.46 -43.17 3856.75 -46.75
5.80 3541.64 122.73 3244.57 112.43
5.80 3620.27 -93.80 2968.92 -76.92
5.80 3570.40 -57.89 2865.46 -46.46
5.80 3541.84 285.18 3598.28 289.72
5.80 3716.88 155.09 4474.30 186.70
5.80 3814.72 86.97 4633.37 105.63
5.80 3872.14 41.98 4171.77 45.23
5.80 3902.85 -22.35 3331.08 -19.08
5.80 3895.38 -316.50 3326.26 -270.26
5.80 3713.34 94.96 3780.33 96.67
5.80 3775.50 -372.03 4308.56 -424.56
5.80 3560.51 -113.33 3855.72 -122.72
5.80 3499.05 196.97 3205.56 180.44
5.80 3621.74 10.82 2970.13 8.87
5.80 3633.96 143.95 2916.47 115.53
5.80 3725.19 173.68 3784.55 176.45
5.80 3834.06 114.34 4615.36 137.64
5.80 3907.72 77.95 4746.32 94.68
5.80 3959.78 -368.67 4266.20 -397.20
5.80 3746.78 -108.82 3197.88 -92.88
5.80 3688.00 13.84 3149.18 11.82
5.80 3702.01 -61.68 3768.79 -62.79
5.80 3671.21 -130.17 4189.55 -148.55
5.80 3599.76 406.10 3898.23 439.77
5.80 3846.56 -124.35 3523.92 -113.92
5.80 3778.56 -109.42 3098.74 -89.74
5.80 3719.42 154.43 2985.06 123.94
5.80 3816.87 35.74 3877.69 36.31
5.80 3843.88 -118.11 4627.18 -142.18
5.80 3779.58 206.91 4590.69 251.31
5.80 3908.18 98.76 4210.60 106.40
5.80 3972.58 -51.08 3390.60 -43.60
5.80 3948.07 -204.06 3371.25 -174.25
5.80 3832.76 -112.86 3901.89 -114.89
5.80 3771.58 -15.85 4304.09 -18.09
5.80 3767.97 5.18 4080.39 5.61
5.80 3776.85 -8.79 3460.05 -8.05
5.80 3777.43 -38.78 3097.81 -31.81
5.80 3760.21 -62.05 3017.80 -49.80
5.80 3729.19 243.51 3788.61 247.39
5.80 3879.50 -42.41 4670.06 -51.06
5.80 3860.13 -176.61 4688.51 -214.51
5.80 3761.11 -123.59 4052.16 -133.16
5.80 3693.56 -63.80 3152.45 -54.45
5.80 3661.50 69.62 3126.55 59.45
5.80 3708.62 245.07 3775.51 249.49
5.80 3859.85 -21.75 4404.83 -24.83
5.80 3852.74 -50.04 4172.19 -54.19
5.80 3828.84 -83.71 3507.69 -76.69
5.80 3784.96 -74.36 3103.98 -60.98
5.80 3746.63 32.53 3006.90 26.10
5.80 3771.73 -27.40 3831.83 -27.83
5.80 3761.27 -77.87 4527.74 -93.74
5.80 3720.86 -48.87 4519.36 -59.36
5.80 3697.65 -133.46 3983.79 -143.79
5.80 3624.25 93.39 3093.29 79.71
5.80 3685.47 -71.46 3147.02 -61.02
5.80 3648.86 327.42 3714.68 333.32
3848.97 4392.40
StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis: Forecast
Performed By: Kishore Shenoi
Date: Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Updating: Live/Unlinked
Forecasting Constants (Optimized)
Level (Alpha) 0.596
Trend (Beta) 0.000
Season (Gamma) 0.000
Winters' Exponential
Mean Abs Err #NAME?
Root Mean Sq Err #NAME?
Mean Abs Per% Err #NAME?
Seasonal Forecast using Winter's Expotential and Original
Observations
6000.00
y = 2543.6e0.0019x
5000.00 R² = 0.4264
4000.00
Total
3000.00 Forecast
Expon. (Forecast)
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Jul-1992
Jul-1995
Jul-1998
Jul-2001
Jul-2004
Jul-2007
Jan-1991
Jan-1994
Jan-1997
Jan-2000
Jan-2003
Jan-2006
Jan-2009
Original Observations
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
1000.00
0.00 Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Forecast Errors
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
-100.00
-200.00
-300.00
-400.00
-500.00
Jan-1991
Jan-1992
Jan-1993
Jan-1994
Jan-1995
Jan-1996
Jan-1997
Jan-1998
Jan-1999
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Forecasting Data Total Level Trend Season
Jan-1991 3029.00 2654.25 5.80 1.14
Feb-1991 2838.00 2636.61 5.80 1.08
Mar-1991 2384.00 2618.50 5.80 0.92
Apr-1991 2197.00 2656.89 5.80 0.82
May-1991 2170.00 2687.21 5.80 0.80
Jun-1991 2697.00 2670.18 5.80 1.02
Jul-1991 3048.00 2590.21 5.80 1.20
Aug-1991 2997.00 2519.43 5.80 1.21
Sep-1991 2816.00 2577.97 5.80 1.08
Oct-1991 2234.00 2603.84 5.80 0.85
Nov-1991 2365.00 2704.98 5.80 0.85
Dec-1991 2644.00 2643.08 5.80 1.02
Jan-1992 2951.00 2611.35 5.80 1.14
Feb-1992 2834.00 2617.07 5.80 1.08
Mar-1992 2380.00 2608.00 5.80 0.92
Apr-1992 2282.00 2714.40 5.80 0.82
May-1992 2090.00 2651.06 5.80 0.80
Jun-1992 2363.00 2459.69 5.80 1.02
Jul-1992 2861.00 2412.58 5.80 1.20
Aug-1992 2853.00 2376.99 5.80 1.21
Sep-1992 2652.00 2429.70 5.80 1.08
Oct-1992 2257.00 2559.97 5.80 0.85
Nov-1992 2337.00 2667.71 5.80 0.85
Dec-1992 2824.00 2733.36 5.80 1.02
Jan-1993 3025.00 2686.48 5.80 1.14
Feb-1993 2979.00 2727.21 5.80 1.08
Mar-1993 2679.00 2846.97 5.80 0.92
Apr-1993 2323.00 2840.78 5.80 0.82
May-1993 2061.00 2680.62 5.80 0.80
Jun-1993 2553.00 2583.07 5.80 1.02
Jul-1993 3260.00 2659.93 5.80 1.20
Aug-1993 3297.00 2694.77 5.80 1.21
Sep-1993 2964.00 2730.68 5.80 1.08
Oct-1993 2315.00 2722.11 5.80 0.85
Nov-1993 2424.00 2793.95 5.80 0.85
Dec-1993 2829.00 2787.31 5.80 1.02
Jan-1994 3348.00 2876.92 5.80 1.14
Feb-1994 3202.00 2926.88 5.80 1.08
Mar-1994 2578.00 2861.99 5.80 0.92
Apr-1994 2317.00 2842.49 5.80 0.82
May-1994 2167.00 2760.00 5.80 0.80
Jun-1994 2803.00 2761.77 5.80 1.02
Jul-1994 3342.00 2772.75 5.80 1.20
Aug-1994 3121.00 2654.03 5.80 1.21
Sep-1994 2845.00 2648.41 5.80 1.08
Oct-1994 2313.00 2687.46 5.80 0.85
Nov-1994 2370.00 2742.26 5.80 0.85
Dec-1994 2770.00 2731.89 5.80 1.02
Jan-1995 3115.00 2732.87 5.80 1.14
Feb-1995 3097.00 2810.89 5.80 1.08
Mar-1995 2564.00 2806.00 5.80 0.92
Apr-1995 2286.00 2797.34 5.80 0.82
May-1995 2261.00 2811.54 5.80 0.80
Jun-1995 2807.00 2784.94 5.80 1.02
Jul-1995 3356.00 2789.04 5.80 1.20
Aug-1995 3707.00 2948.08 5.80 1.21
Sep-1995 3130.00 2924.87 5.80 1.08
Oct-1995 2410.00 2866.92 5.80 0.85
Nov-1995 2564.00 2950.16 5.80 0.85
Dec-1995 2981.00 2939.41 5.80 1.02
Jan-1996 3504.00 3019.85 5.80 1.14
Feb-1996 3314.00 3046.27 5.80 1.08
Mar-1996 2808.00 3059.83 5.80 0.92
Apr-1996 2487.00 3045.96 5.80 0.82
May-1996 2404.00 3018.19 5.80 0.80
Jun-1996 3032.00 3000.43 5.80 1.02
Jul-1996 3423.00 2909.30 5.80 1.20
Aug-1996 3405.00 2848.54 5.80 1.21
Sep-1996 3053.00 2842.05 5.80 1.08
Oct-1996 2432.00 2848.80 5.80 0.85
Nov-1996 2608.00 2973.54 5.80 0.85
Dec-1996 3024.00 2974.02 5.80 1.02
Jan-1997 3424.00 2992.07 5.80 1.14
Feb-1997 3223.00 2984.98 5.80 1.08
Mar-1997 2626.00 2916.69 5.80 0.92
Apr-1997 2425.00 2943.06 5.80 0.82
May-1997 2283.00 2886.77 5.80 0.80
Jun-1997 2786.00 2803.04 5.80 1.02
Jul-1997 3527.00 2880.99 5.80 1.20
Aug-1997 3451.00 2859.66 5.80 1.21
Sep-1997 3160.00 2905.72 5.80 1.08
Oct-1997 2714.00 3071.39 5.80 0.85
Nov-1997 2666.00 3103.98 5.80 0.85
Dec-1997 3089.00 3064.79 5.80 1.02
Jan-1998 3308.00 2968.19 5.80 1.14
Feb-1998 3091.00 2902.70 5.80 1.08
Mar-1998 2774.00 2979.69 5.80 0.92
Apr-1998 2473.00 3003.40 5.80 0.82
May-1998 2501.00 3073.00 5.80 0.80
Jun-1998 3281.00 3168.61 5.80 1.02
Jul-1998 3918.00 3222.28 5.80 1.20
Aug-1998 3880.00 3208.05 5.80 1.21
Sep-1998 3555.00 3264.98 5.80 1.08
Oct-1998 2801.00 3277.33 5.80 0.85
Nov-1998 2567.00 3118.14 5.80 0.85
Dec-1998 2989.00 3011.99 5.80 1.02
Jan-1999 3588.00 3093.04 5.80 1.14
Feb-1999 3097.00 2956.46 5.80 1.08
Mar-1999 2885.00 3073.61 5.80 0.92
Apr-1999 2576.00 3116.19 5.80 0.82
May-1999 2489.00 3109.68 5.80 0.80
Jun-1999 3197.00 3134.17 5.80 1.02
Jul-1999 3972.00 3235.09 5.80 1.20
Aug-1999 3999.00 3271.60 5.80 1.21
Sep-1999 3468.00 3242.55 5.80 1.08
Oct-1999 2665.00 3173.33 5.80 0.85
Nov-1999 2610.00 3106.11 5.80 0.85
Dec-1999 3070.00 3054.53 5.80 1.02
Jan-2000 3532.00 3080.99 5.80 1.14
Feb-2000 3395.00 3115.55 5.80 1.08
Mar-2000 2730.00 3037.10 5.80 0.92
Apr-2000 2541.00 3076.01 5.80 0.82
May-2000 2689.00 3241.91 5.80 0.80
Jun-2000 3466.00 3345.38 5.80 1.02
Jul-2000 3854.00 3262.05 5.80 1.20
Aug-2000 3993.00 3279.56 5.80 1.21
Sep-2000 3618.00 3328.72 5.80 1.08
Oct-2000 2801.00 3303.10 5.80 0.85
Nov-2000 2817.00 3302.99 5.80 0.85
Dec-2000 3650.00 3473.56 5.80 1.02
Jan-2001 4099.00 3546.39 5.80 1.14
Feb-2001 3567.00 3398.29 5.80 1.08
Mar-2001 2994.00 3323.08 5.80 0.92
Apr-2001 2748.00 3341.99 5.80 0.82
May-2001 2637.00 3310.82 5.80 0.80
Jun-2001 3314.00 3284.09 5.80 1.02
Jul-2001 3893.00 3256.58 5.80 1.20
Aug-2001 4167.00 3362.70 5.80 1.21
Sep-2001 3532.00 3314.77 5.80 1.08
Oct-2001 2756.00 3266.04 5.80 0.85
Nov-2001 2693.00 3201.49 5.80 0.85
Dec-2001 3102.00 3111.81 5.80 1.02
Jan-2002 3771.00 3228.93 5.80 1.14
Feb-2002 3450.00 3205.61 5.80 1.08
Mar-2002 3075.00 3297.88 5.80 0.92
Apr-2002 2847.00 3403.73 5.80 0.82
May-2002 2817.00 3469.40 5.80 0.80
Jun-2002 3572.00 3499.49 5.80 1.02
Jul-2002 4313.00 3551.52 5.80 1.20
Aug-2002 4333.00 3563.34 5.80 1.21
Sep-2002 3861.00 3577.81 5.80 1.08
Oct-2002 3049.00 3576.90 5.80 0.85
Nov-2002 2961.00 3514.14 5.80 0.85
Dec-2002 3525.00 3485.74 5.80 1.02
Jan-2003 4009.00 3504.33 5.80 1.14
Feb-2003 3962.00 3598.62 5.80 1.08
Mar-2003 3212.00 3545.83 5.80 0.92
Apr-2003 2782.00 3456.72 5.80 0.82
May-2003 2832.00 3501.96 5.80 0.80
Jun-2003 3376.00 3397.70 5.80 1.02
Jul-2003 4215.00 3461.88 5.80 1.20
Aug-2003 4338.00 3529.56 5.80 1.21
Sep-2003 3795.00 3527.65 5.80 1.08
Oct-2003 2896.00 3449.82 5.80 0.85
Nov-2003 2889.00 3412.53 5.80 0.85
Dec-2003 3648.00 3516.66 5.80 1.02
Jan-2004 4101.00 3564.86 5.80 1.14
Feb-2004 3878.00 3576.87 5.80 1.08
Mar-2004 3192.00 3524.03 5.80 0.92
Apr-2004 2846.00 3494.41 5.80 0.82
May-2004 2923.00 3584.75 5.80 0.80
Jun-2004 3745.00 3647.57 5.80 1.02
Jul-2004 4171.00 3541.09 5.80 1.20
Aug-2004 4078.00 3434.04 5.80 1.21
Sep-2004 3745.00 3461.39 5.80 1.08
Oct-2004 3015.00 3506.11 5.80 0.85
Nov-2004 2988.00 3504.36 5.80 0.85
Dec-2004 3676.00 3570.16 5.80 1.02
Jan-2005 4042.00 3555.68 5.80 1.14
Feb-2005 3810.00 3535.74 5.80 1.08
Mar-2005 3357.00 3614.72 5.80 0.92
Apr-2005 2892.00 3564.48 5.80 0.82
May-2005 2819.00 3535.86 5.80 0.80
Jun-2005 3888.00 3711.68 5.80 1.02
Jul-2005 4661.00 3809.53 5.80 1.20
Aug-2005 4739.00 3866.79 5.80 1.21
Sep-2005 4217.00 3897.33 5.80 1.08
Oct-2005 3312.00 3889.64 5.80 0.85
Nov-2005 3056.00 3706.83 5.80 0.85
Dec-2005 3877.00 3769.63 5.80 1.02
Jan-2006 3884.00 3553.81 5.80 1.14
Feb-2006 3733.00 3492.62 5.80 1.08
Mar-2006 3386.00 3616.15 5.80 0.92
Apr-2006 2979.00 3628.27 5.80 0.82
May-2006 3032.00 3719.77 5.80 0.80
Jun-2006 3961.00 3828.83 5.80 1.02
Jul-2006 4753.00 3902.41 5.80 1.20
Aug-2006 4841.00 3954.36 5.80 1.21
Sep-2006 3869.00 3740.28 5.80 1.08
Oct-2006 3105.00 3681.66 5.80 0.85
Nov-2006 3161.00 3696.03 5.80 0.85
Dec-2006 3706.00 3665.19 5.80 1.02
Jan-2007 4041.00 3593.56 5.80 1.14
Feb-2007 4338.00 3841.56 5.80 1.08
Mar-2007 3410.00 3772.80 5.80 0.92
Apr-2007 3009.00 3713.38 5.80 0.82
May-2007 3109.00 3811.34 5.80 0.80
Jun-2007 3914.00 3838.27 5.80 1.02
Jul-2007 4485.00 3773.58 5.80 1.20
Aug-2007 4842.00 3902.78 5.80 1.21
Sep-2007 4317.00 3967.18 5.80 1.08
Oct-2007 3347.00 3942.31 5.80 0.85
Nov-2007 3197.00 3826.50 5.80 0.85
Dec-2007 3787.00 3765.33 5.80 1.02
Jan-2008 4286.00 3761.95 5.80 1.14
Feb-2008 4086.00 3770.97 5.80 1.08
Mar-2008 3452.00 3771.58 5.80 0.92
Apr-2008 3066.00 3754.30 5.80 0.82
May-2008 2968.00 3723.20 5.80 0.80
Jun-2008 4036.00 3874.20 5.80 1.02
Jul-2008 4619.00 3854.43 5.80 1.20
Aug-2008 4474.00 3754.94 5.80 1.21
Sep-2008 3919.00 3687.32 5.80 1.08
Oct-2008 3098.00 3655.37 5.80 0.85
Nov-2008 3186.00 3702.85 5.80 0.85
Dec-2008 4025.00 3854.64 5.80 1.02
Jan-2009 4380.00 3847.13 5.80 1.14
Feb-2009 4118.00 3823.00 5.80 1.08
Mar-2009 3431.00 3778.95 5.80 0.92
Apr-2009 3043.00 3740.57 5.80 0.82
May-2009 3033.00 3765.90 5.80 0.80
Jun-2009 3804.00 3755.40 5.80 1.02
Jul-2009 4434.00 3714.85 5.80 1.20
Aug-2009 4460.00 3691.65 5.80 1.21
Sep-2009 3840.00 3618.06 5.80 1.08
Oct-2009 3173.00 3679.73 5.80 0.85
Nov-2009 3086.00 3642.92 5.80 0.85
Dec-2009 4048.00 3843.88 5.80 1.02
Jan-2010
Forecast Error
2880.60 -42.60
2420.76 -36.76
2152.14 44.86
2136.97 33.03
2735.92 -38.92
3221.29 -173.29
3153.12 -156.12
2720.63 95.37
2205.24 28.76
2228.37 136.63
2759.67 -115.67
3022.87 -71.87
2834.15 -0.15
2402.87 -22.87
2143.53 138.47
2183.12 -93.12
2699.20 -336.20
2967.90 -106.90
2937.36 -84.36
2567.18 84.82
2078.70 178.30
2190.91 146.09
2721.73 102.27
3125.90 -100.90
2915.50 63.50
2503.77 175.23
2339.51 -16.51
2284.55 -223.55
2729.22 -176.22
3116.42 143.58
3237.80 59.20
2909.55 54.45
2335.59 -20.59
2329.36 94.64
2850.25 -21.25
3187.47 160.53
3121.74 80.26
2686.69 -108.69
2351.82 -34.82
2285.92 -118.92
2809.87 -6.87
3331.54 10.46
3374.82 -253.82
2865.66 -20.66
2265.36 47.64
2299.77 70.23
2797.63 -27.63
3124.22 -9.22
2965.75 131.25
2580.43 -16.43
2305.91 -19.91
2249.68 11.32
2862.23 -55.23
3359.44 -3.44
3394.62 312.38
3182.45 -52.45
2501.32 -91.32
2453.01 110.99
3009.28 -28.28
3361.04 142.96
3276.51 37.49
2796.07 11.93
2514.07 -27.07
2449.22 -45.22
3072.17 -40.17
3618.83 -195.83
3540.68 -135.68
3075.21 -22.21
2430.64 1.36
2437.54 170.46
3033.08 -9.08
3400.54 23.46
3246.43 -23.43
2739.91 -113.91
2396.68 28.32
2366.64 -83.64
2938.66 -152.66
3381.21 145.79
3506.30 -55.30
3087.20 72.80
2484.98 229.02
2627.61 38.39
3165.87 -76.87
3504.12 -196.12
3220.57 -129.57
2664.54 109.46
2448.35 24.65
2415.06 85.94
3127.85 153.15
3821.28 96.72
3920.83 -40.83
3462.54 92.46
2791.61 9.39
2803.46 -236.46
3180.29 -191.29
3443.86 144.14
3355.77 -258.77
2713.79 171.21
2525.37 50.63
2505.59 -16.59
3165.12 31.88
3779.83 192.17
3936.38 62.62
3531.01 -63.01
2772.47 -107.47
2714.65 -104.65
3168.04 -98.04
3492.41 39.59
3342.73 52.27
2859.54 -129.54
2495.43 45.57
2473.34 215.66
3299.46 166.54
4034.08 -180.08
3969.13 23.87
3539.58 78.42
2846.01 -45.01
2825.46 -8.46
3368.47 281.53
3970.60 128.40
3846.71 -279.71
3118.56 -124.56
2729.96 18.04
2686.80 -49.80
3369.46 -55.46
3960.29 -67.29
3962.49 204.51
3629.16 -97.16
2834.10 -78.10
2793.82 -100.82
3265.14 -163.14
3557.78 213.22
3502.93 -52.93
2942.04 132.96
2709.29 137.71
2736.35 80.65
3530.57 41.43
4219.59 93.41
4320.73 12.27
3845.33 15.67
3058.61 -9.61
3059.26 -98.26
3583.43 -58.43
3984.51 24.49
3801.16 160.84
3302.08 -90.08
2912.63 -130.63
2778.88 53.12
3563.65 -187.65
4097.06 117.94
4211.84 126.16
3808.93 -13.93
3015.80 -119.80
2950.75 -61.75
3479.99 168.01
4019.79 81.21
3866.71 11.29
3282.16 -90.16
2894.75 -48.75
2809.13 113.87
3647.76 97.24
4397.85 -226.85
4308.06 -230.06
3706.02 38.98
2959.25 55.75
2998.82 -10.82
3573.48 102.52
4080.85 -38.85
3856.77 -46.77
3244.48 112.52
2969.12 -77.12
2865.37 -46.37
3598.09 289.91
4475.02 185.98
4634.10 104.90
4172.25 44.75
3331.32 -19.32
3326.31 -270.31
3779.59 97.41
4308.48 -424.48
3854.75 -121.75
3204.98 181.02
2970.30 8.70
2916.56 115.44
3784.94 176.06
4616.04 136.96
4746.92 94.08
4266.61 -397.61
3197.27 -92.27
3148.72 12.28
3768.60 -62.60
4189.29 -148.29
3897.80 440.20
3524.65 -114.65
3098.76 -89.76
2984.86 124.14
3877.96 36.04
4627.41 -142.41
4590.44 251.56
4211.04 105.96
3390.94 -43.94
3371.28 -174.28
3901.42 -114.42
4303.57 -17.57
4080.15 5.85
3459.98 -7.98
3097.76 -31.76
3017.71 -49.71
3788.42 247.58
4670.65 -51.65
4688.64 -214.64
4051.75 -132.75
3152.08 -54.08
3126.27 59.73
3775.54 249.46
4405.50 -25.50
4172.39 -54.39
3507.65 -76.65
3103.81 -60.81
3006.69 26.31
3831.80 -27.80
4527.64 -93.64
4519.10 -59.10
3983.57 -143.57
3092.96 80.04
3147.07 -61.07
3714.53 333.47
4393.21